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DOE OSTI2021

Techno-economic-environmental impacts of industrial energy assessment: Sustainable industrial motor systems of small and medium-sized enterprises

Energy assessments can provide an effective way of identifying and implementing energy efficiency measures to save energy costs and avoid emissions throughout manufacturing facilities. Consequently, it generates significant economic and environmental benefits to localities, states, and the nation. Quantifying these benefits requires a systematic techno-economic-environmental framework for capturing the interactions. This article employs methodologies to improve the energy efficiency of small and medium-size industries through their sustainable industrial motor systems. Motor systems offer large opportunities to enhance energy efficiency through adopting advanced technologies and better-informed operations. Case studies presented illuminate the potential savings and impacts from implementing sustainable motor systems and the importance of energy assessments. Here, the integrated macro-economic analysis quantifies the regional sustainability impacts of implementing the industrial energy efficiency offered by an energy auditing program in Ohio over a ten-year period. Results show that implementing all the center’s motor recommendations have directly saved $\$702$ M in energy costs, avoided 2.7 million metric tons of carbon dioxide emissions, and created 3,445 jobs, resulting in a total annual economic impact of $\$788$ M stemming from direct, indirect, and induced regional economic impacts. It provides policy implications for encouraging sustainable industrial motor systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2016

Charlotte - EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) Human-in-the-Loop Results Briefing to ATD-2 FAA Partners

The Charlotte EDC Evaluation and Demonstration (CEED) was the first Human-In-The-Loop experiment under the Air Traffic Management Technology Demonstration-2 (ATD-2) project. The purpose of the study was fourfold: 1) to establish a simulation environment (Charlotte) for airspace operations for ATD-2 technology, 2) to simulate current-day departures and arrival operations, 3) to assess the impact of current Traffic Management Initiatives (TMI) on Charlotte (CLT) departure flows and en route operations in Washington (ZDC) and Atlanta Centers (ZTL), and 4) to assess the impact of departure takeoff time compliance on airspace operations. The experimental design compared 3 TMIs and 2 compliance levels. Fourteen FAA retired controllers participated in the simulation. In addition, two Traffic Management Coordinators from ZTL and ZDC managed traffic flows. Surface and airborne delays, control efficiency, throughput, realism, workload, and acceptability were assessed and will be compared across the experimental conditions. Participants rated the simulation as very realistic. Results indicate that different TMIs have different impacts on surface and airspace delay. Departure compliance indicates partial benefits to sector complexity and controller workload. This simulation will provide an initial assessment of the tactical scheduling problems that the ATD-2 technology will address in the near term.

airspace technology demonstration 2↗

DOE OSTI2024

A holistic platform for accelerating sorbent-based carbon capture

Abstract Reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) emissions urgently requires the large-scale deployment of carbon-capture technologies. These technologies must separate CO 2 from various sources and deliver it to different sinks 1,2 . The quest for optimal solutions for specific source–sink pairs is a complex, multi-objective challenge involving multiple stakeholders and depends on social, economic and regional contexts. Currently, research follows a sequential approach: chemists focus on materials design 3 and engineers on optimizing processes 4,5 , which are then operated at a scale that impacts the economy and the environment. Assessing these impacts, such as the greenhouse gas emissions over the plant’s lifetime, is typically one of the final steps 6 . Here we introduce the PrISMa (Process-Informed design of tailor-made Sorbent Materials) platform, which integrates materials, process design, techno-economics and life-cycle assessment. We compare more than 60 case studies capturing CO 2 from various sources in 5 global regions using different technologies. The platform simultaneously informs various stakeholders about the cost-effectiveness of technologies, process configurations and locations, reveals the molecular characteristics of the top-performing sorbents, and provides insights on environmental impacts, co-benefits and trade-offs. By uniting stakeholders at an early research stage, PrISMa accelerates carbon-capture technology development during this critical period as we aim for a net-zero world.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2021

Changes in fire weather climatology under 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C warming

Abstract The 2015 Paris Agreement led to a number of studies that assessed the impact of the 1.5 °C and 2.0 °C increases in global temperature over preindustrial levels. However, those assessments have not actively investigated the impact of these levels of warming on fire weather. In view of a recent series of high-profile wildfire events worldwide, we access fire weather sensitivity based on a set of multi-model large ensemble climate simulations for these low-emission scenarios. The results indicate that the half degree difference between these two thresholds may lead to a significantly increased hazard of wildfire in certain parts of the world, particularly the Amazon, African savanna and Mediterranean. Although further experiments focused on human land use are needed to depict future fire activity, considering that rising temperatures are the most influential factor in augmenting the danger of fire weather, limiting global warming to 1.5 °C would alleviate some risk in these parts of the world.

Son, Rackhun (ORCID:000000023366495X)↗

NASA NTRS2015

The AgMIP Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of Climate Change Impacts on Agriculture and Food Security

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) has been working since 2010 to construct a protocol-based framework enabling regional assessments (led by regional experts and modelers) that can provide consistent inputs to global economic and integrated assessment models. These global models can then relay important global-level information that drive regional decision-making and outcomes throughout an interconnected agricultural system. AgMIPs community of nearly 800 climate, crop, livestock, economics, and IT experts has improved the state-of-the-art through model intercomparisons, validation exercises, regional integrated assessments, and the launch of AgMIP programs on all six arable continents. AgMIP is now launching Coordinated Global and Regional Assessments (CGRA) of climate change impacts on agriculture and food security to link global and regional crop and economic models using a protocol-based framework. The CGRA protocols are being developed to utilize historical observations, climate projections, and RCPsSSPs from CMIP5 (and potentially CMIP6), and will examine stakeholder-driven agricultural development and adaptation scenarios to provide cutting-edge assessments of climate changes impact on agriculture and food security. These protocols will build on the foundation of established protocols from AgMIPs 30+ activities, and will emphasize the use of multiple models, scenarios, and scales to enable an accurate assessment of related uncertainties. The CGRA is also designed to provide the outputs necessary to feed into integrated assessment models (IAMs), nutrition and food security assessments, nitrogen and carbon cycle models, and additional impact-sector assessments (e.g., water resources, land-use, biomes, urban areas). This presentation will describe the current status of CGRA planning and initial prototype experiments to demonstrate key aspects of the protocols before wider implementation ahead of the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report.

models↗

NASA NTRS1972

Generating social impact scenarios, a key step in making technology assessment studies

The social impact scenario, a method used to trace the effects of new technological applications, is discussed. The research seeks to anticipate the secondary social impacts that arise from: (1) government or private programs that cope with major social problems like poverty, environmental pollution, or public safety; and (2) a concerted national effort to achieve a widely supported specific goal like landing a man on the moon or finding a cure for cancer.

Jones, M. V.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment

The Climate Change Impacts and Responses: Societal Indicators for the National Climate Assessment workshop, sponsored by the National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) for the National Climate Assessment (NCA), was held on April 28-29, 2011 at The Madison Hotel in Washington, DC. A group of 56 experts (see list in Appendix B) convened to share their experiences. Participants brought to bear a wide range of disciplinary expertise in the social and natural sciences, sector experience, and knowledge about developing and implementing indicators for a range of purposes. Participants included representatives from federal and state government, non-governmental organizations, tribes, universities, and communities. The purpose of the workshop was to assist the NCA in developing a strategic framework for climate-related physical, ecological, and socioeconomic indicators that can be easily communicated with the U.S. population and that will support monitoring, assessment, prediction, evaluation, and decision-making. The NCA indicators are envisioned as a relatively small number of policy-relevant integrated indicators designed to provide a consistent, objective, and transparent overview of major variations in climate impacts, vulnerabilities, adaptation, and mitigation activities across sectors, regions, and timeframes. The workshop participants were asked to provide input on a number of topics, including: (1) categories of societal indicators for the NCA; (2) alternative approaches to constructing indicators and the better approaches for NCA to consider; (3) specific requirements and criteria for implementing the indicators; and (4) sources of data for and creators of such indicators. Socioeconomic indicators could include demographic, cultural, behavioral, economic, public health, and policy components relevant to impacts, vulnerabilities, and adaptation to climate change as well as both proactive and reactive responses to climate change. Participants provided inputs through in-depth discussion in breakout sessions, plenary sessions on break-out results, and several panels that provided key insights about indicators, lessons learned through experience with developing and implementing indicators, and thoughts on how the NCA could proceed to develop indicators for the NCA.

Kenney, Melissa A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Comparing Regional Energy Consumption for Direct Drone and Truck Deliveries

Drone delivery, once thought of as fictitious, is becoming a reality with the efforts of both forward-looking enterprises and supportive government policies. This emerging mode of e-commerce delivery raises many concerns. One important concern is the energy efficiency of direct delivery drones compared with conventional delivery trucks at a regional systems level. Here, in this study, we develop and apply methods to quantify the regional energy impacts of drone delivery, then we assess these impacts and compare them with the impacts of truck delivery. To study this problem, we develop an optimization model that determines an optimal set of fulfillment centers (FCs) with variable service capacities that allow drones to make direct e-commerce deliveries. We adopt two drone delivery energy estimation models from the literature and use them as inputs to demonstrate the potential range of energy needs. We also develop another optimization model to account for the energy consumption of diesel trucks (DTs) and battery electric vehicles (BEVs). We test the models using validated simulation data for the Chicago metropolitan area in the U.S. to quantify the energy implications of these three delivery modes. For drone delivery, we further extend our analyses by considering the impact of wind speed and flight patterns. Our results show that direct delivery drones require 15.8% more energy than BEVs on an average windy day, and they need 15% more energy than DTs on a very windy day. We provide essential parameter values for reproducibility and list relevant open problems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2017

Asteroid Impact Risk: Ground Hazard versus Impactor Size

We utilized a probabilistic asteroid impact risk (PAIR) model to stochastically assess the impact risk due to an ensemble population of Near-Earth Objects (NEOs). Concretely, we present the variation of risk with impactor size. Results suggest that large impactors dominate the average risk, even when only considering the subset of undiscovered NEOs.

Mathias, Donovan↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry/breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity’s four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Overview of a New NASA Activity Focused on Planetary Defense

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has initiated a new Planetary Defense research activity, led by the NASA Ames Research Center. The objective of the effort is to provide tools for reliably assessing the impact damage that Potentially Hazardous Asteroids (PHAs) could inflict on the Earth. This research will support decisions regarding appropriate mitigation action in the event that an impact threat is discovered. The activity includes four interrelated tasks: PHA characterization, physics-based simulations of atmospheric entry breakup, simulations of surface damage due to airbursts, land impacts, or tsunamis, and an integrated assessment of the overall risks posed by potential PHA strikes. This paper outlines the objectives, research approaches, products, and interrelations of the activity's four tasks, and presents an overview of their current progress and preliminary results. Companion papers in this conference provide additional details of the work in the four task areas.

Arnold, J. O.↗

NASA NTRS2019

Quantifying Water Storage Change and Land Subsidence Induced by Reservoir Impoundment Using GRACE, Landsat, and GPS Data

The construction of hydropower dams is a common strategy to support a country's increasing need for electricity and river water management for industry and agriculture. Although the hydrological and geophysical impacts of water relocation are usually assessed prior to impoundment, their accuracy is generally limited due to the lack of in situ observations, especially in a remote area. This study presents a workflow to quantify the terrestrial water storage change (TWS) and land subsidence induced by a reservoir's water impoundment using multiple satellite observations (GRACE, Landsat), land surface models (CABLE, GLDAS, NCEP, ECMWF), and GPS data. The study site is the Bakun Dam, located in Sarawak, Malaysia, which is the largest hydropower dam in Southeast Asia. Commencing operation in late 2010, the dam induced a change of water mass and lake surface area that was clearly observed by GRACE and Landsat observations, respectively. During the 17-month impounding period (from August 2010 to December 2011), GRACE observed a dramatic increase of approximately 200 mm equivalent water height, while Landsat detected an increased lake extent of around 600 km2. In this paper, a forward model is developed to determine the increased water surface level corresponding to GRACE observations, estimated to be about 120 m. In contrast to GRACE, the TWS derived from land surface models cannot capture the increased TWS, due to the lack of reservoir routing algorithms in the models. In addition, the land subsidence was calculated using the disk load model constructed based on the GRACE-derived lake level and Landsat-derived lake extent; the result is validated with the GPS data from BIN1 station, located at the western coast of Borneo. The commencement stage of the Bakun Dam induces the large-scale land subsidence, which causes the GPS-BIN1 station to subside by ~9 mm, and move toward the Bakun Lake by ~4 mm. Computation of the surface displacements directly from GRACE spherical harmonic coefficient data fails to capture the subsidence feature, mainly due to the truncation error. Overall, this study demonstrates that evaluating GRACE in conjunction with Landsat, LSMs, and GPS data allows the exploitation of the gravity signal at a much smaller spatial scale than its intrinsic resolution. Benefiting from global coverage, the newly developed satellite-based algorithm is a valuable tool for assessing the impacts of reservoir operation on hydrological and geophysical changes from local to regional scales.

Natthachet Tangdamrongsub↗

NASA NTRS2020

Local and Remote Mean and Extreme Temperature Response to Regional Aerosol Emissions Reductions

The climatic implications of regional aerosol and precursor emissions reductions implemented to protect human health are poorly understood. We investigate the mean and extreme temperature response to regional changes in aerosol emissions using three coupled chemistry–climate models: NOAA GFDL CM3, NCAR CESM1, and NASA GISS-E2. Our approach contrasts a long present-day control simulation from each model (up to 400 years with perpetual year 2000 or 2005 emissions) with 14 individual aerosol emissions perturbation simulations (160–240 years each). We perturb emissions of sulfur dioxide (SO2) and/or carbonaceous aerosol within six world regions and assess the statistical significance of mean and extreme temperature responses relative to internal variability determined by the control simulation and across the models. In all models, the global mean surface temperature response (perturbation minus control) to SO2 and/or carbonaceous aerosol is mostly positive (warming) and statistically significant and ranges from +0.17 K (Europe SO2) to -0.06 K (US BC). The warming response to SO2 reductions is strongest in the US and Europe perturbation simulations, both globally and regionally, with Arctic warming up to 1 K due to a removal of European anthropogenic SO2 emissions alone; however, even emissions from regions remote to the Arctic, such as SO2 from India, significantly warm the Arctic by up to 0.5 K. Arctic warming is the most robust response across each model and several aerosol emissions perturbations. The temperature response in the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes is most sensitive to emissions perturbations within that region. In the tropics, however, the temperature response to emissions perturbations is roughly the same in magnitude as emissions perturbations either within or outside of the tropics. We find that climate sensitivity to regional aerosol perturbations ranges from 0.5 to 1.0 K (W m(exp -2))(exp -1) depending on the region and aerosol composition and is larger than the climate sensitivity to a doubling of CO2 in two of three models. We update previous estimates of regional temperature potential (RTP), a metric for estimating the regional temperature responses to a regional emissions perturbation that can facilitate assessment of climate impacts with integrated assessment models without requiring computationally demanding coupled climate model simulations. These calculations indicate a robust regional response to aerosol forcing within the Northern Hemisphere midlatitudes, regardless of where the aerosol forcing is located longitudinally. We show that regional aerosol perturbations can significantly increase extreme temperatures on the regional scale. Except in the Arctic in the summer, extreme temperature responses largely mirror mean temperature responses to regional aerosol perturbations through a shift of the temperature distributions and are mostly dominated by local rather than remote aerosol forcing.

Westervelt, Daniel M.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Climate and air quality impacts due to mitigation of non-methane near-term climate forcers

It is important to understand how future environmental policies will impact both climate change and air pollution. Although targeting near-term climate forcers (NTCFs), defined here as aerosols, tropospheric ozone, and precursor gases, should improve air quality, NTCF reductions will also impact climate. Prior assessments of the impact of NTCF mitigation on air quality and climate have been limited. This is related to the idealized nature of some prior studies, simplified treatment of aerosols and chemically reactive gases, as well as a lack of a sufficiently large number of models to quantify model diversity and robust responses. Here, we quantify the 2015–2055 climate and air quality effects of non-methane NTCFs using nine state-of-the-art chemistry–climate model simulations conducted for the Aerosol and Chemistry Model Intercomparison Project (AerChemMIP). Simulations are driven by two future scenarios featuring similar increases in greenhouse gases (GHGs) but with “weak” (SSP3-7.0) versus “strong” (SSP3-7.0-lowNTCF) levels of air quality control measures. As SSP3-7.0 lacks climate policy and has the highest levels of NTCFs, our results (e.g., surface warming) represent an upper bound. Unsurprisingly, we find significant improvements in air quality under NTCF mitigation (strong versus weak air quality controls). Surface fine particulate matter (PM2.5) and ozone (O3) decrease by −2.2±0.32 µg m−3 and −4.6±0.88 ppb, respectively (changes quoted here are for the entire 2015–2055 time period; uncertainty represents the 95 % confidence interval), over global land surfaces, with larger reductions in some regions including south and southeast Asia. Non-methane NTCF mitigation, however, leads to additional climate change due to the removal of aerosol which causes a net warming effect, including global mean surface temperature and precipitation increases of 0.25±0.12 K and 0.03±0.012 mm d−1, respectively. Similarly, increases in extreme weather indices, including the hottest and wettest days, also occur. Regionally, the largest warming and wetting occurs over Asia, including central and north Asia (0.66±0.20 K and 0.03±0.02 mm d−1), south Asia (0.47±0.16 K and 0.17±0.09 mm d−1), and east Asia (0.46±0.20 K and 0.15±0.06 mm d−1). Relatively large warming and wetting of the Arctic also occur at 0.59±0.36 K and 0.04±0.02 mm d−1, respectively. Similar surface warming occurs in model simulations with aerosol-only mitigation, implying weak cooling due to ozone reductions. Our findings suggest that future policies that aggressively target non-methane NTCF reductions will improve air quality but will lead to additional surface warming, particularly in Asia and the Arctic. Policies that address other NTCFs including methane, as well as carbon dioxide emissions, must also be adopted to meet climate mitigation goals.

Climate↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s Global Earth Observing System

The upcoming retrospective analysis for the 21st century (R21C) reanalysis product from NASA will include the full dataset of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) observations collected by Spire with their constellation of smallsats. The Spire RO dataset, which was purchased by NASA for its Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) archive, has global coverage and includes approximately 6 thousand RO profiles per day during 2019 increasing to nearly 20 thousand in 2022-2023. This more than doubles the volume of RO profiles from all other routinely assimilated RO missions combined during 2023. The increase in the number of RO profiles available is particularly important in the extratropics as the next largest RO constellation, the state-of-the-science Formosa Satellite Mission 7 (FORMOSAT-7)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) mission (hereafter COSMIC-2), is focused on the Tropics and only provides approximately 4 thousand RO profiles per day. The large number of observations in the Spire RO dataset have great potential to improve analyses and forecasts of the Earth’s atmosphere produced by numerical weather prediction systems. Their impact is assessed through numerical experiments using NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) with and without the observations from the COSMIC-2 mission. The ability of the Spire RO observations to make up for the omission of the RO observations from COSMIC-2 is directly assessed over the tropics and the impact of Spire over the extratropics is compared to that of the available RO missions that sample over this region. Finally, the quality of the Spire RO observations is compared to that of the routinely assimilated RO missions using Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI).

Michael J. Murphy, Jr.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s GEOS

Michael J. Murphy↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Impact of Assimilating Large Volumes of GNSS Radio Occultation Observations from Spire’s Commercial Constellation into NASA’s GEOS

The upcoming retrospective analysis for the 21st century (R21C) reanalysis product from NASA will include the full dataset of GNSS Radio Occultation (RO) observations collected by Spire with their constellation of smallsats. The Spire RO dataset, which was purchased by NASA for its Commercial Smallsat Data Acquisition (CSDA) archive, has global coverage and increases in number from approximately 6 thousand RO profiles per day during 2019 to approximately 20 thousand in 2022-2023. This more than doubles the volume of RO profiles from all other routinely assimilated RO missions combined during 2022. The increase in the number of RO profiles available is particularly important in the extratropics as the next largest RO constellation, the state-of-the-science Formosa Satellite Mission 7 (FORMOSAT-7)/Constellation Observing System for Meteorology, Ionosphere and Climate (COSMIC-2) mission (hereafter COSMIC-2), is focused on the Tropics and only provides approximately 4 thousand RO profiles per day. The large number of observations in the Spire RO dataset have great potential to improve analyses and forecasts of the Earth’s atmosphere produced by numerical weather prediction systems. Their impact is assessed through numerical experiments using NASA’s Global Earth Observing System (GEOS) Atmospheric Data Assimilation System (ADAS) with and without the observations from the COSMIC-2 mission. The ability of the Spire RO observations to make up for the omission of the RO observations from COSMIC-2 is directly assessed over the tropics and the impact of Spire over the extratropics is compared to that of the available RO missions that sample over this region. Finally, the quality of the Spire RO observations is compared to that of the routinely assimilated RO missions using Forecast Sensitivity-based Observation Impact (FSOI).

Michael J. Murphy↗

DOE OSTI2021

Assessing the Relative Climate Impact of Carbon Utilization for Concrete, Chemical, and Mineral Production

Estimates show that 6.2 gigatons of carbon dioxide (CO2) can be captured and utilized across three pathways, concrete, chemical, and minerals, by 2050. However, it is difficult to compare the climate benefit across these three carbon capture and utilization (CCU) pathways to determine the most effective use of captured CO2. The life cycle assessment methods to evaluate the climate benefit of CCU chemicals should additionally account for the change in material properties of concrete due to CO2 utilization. Furthermore, with most CO2 utilization technologies being in the early stages of research and development, the uncertainty and variability in process and inventory data present a significant challenge in evaluating the climate benefit. We present a stochastically determined climate return on investment (ROI) metric to rank and prioritize CO2 utilization across 20 concrete, chemical and mineral pathways based on the realized climate benefit. We show that two concrete pathways, which use CO2 during concrete mixing, and two chemical pathways, which produce formic acid through hydrogenation of CO2 and carbon monoxide through dry reforming of methane, generate the greatest climate ROI and are the only CCU pathways with a higher likelihood of generating a climate benefit than a climate burden.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗