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Play fairway analysis of geothermal resources across the State of Hawaii: 1. Geological, geophysical, and geochemical datasets

Phase 1 of a Play Fairway Analysis (PFA) of geothermal resource potential across the State of Hawaii was recently completed. The final products of this work include a statewide geothermal resource probability map, a map of confidence in this probability, an assessment of the viability of development in areas of interest, and a prioritized list of recommended future exploration activities. The intersection of subsurface heat (H), permeability (P), and fluid (F) is necessary for an optimum geothermal play. This study: (1) identified and compiled all legacy and current data relevant to Hawaii’s geothermal resource; (2) ranked these datasets in terms of their relevance to subsurface H, P, F; (3) developed a Bayesian statistical method to incorporate the data and their rankings, and produce a statewide resource probability map; (4) developed a method to assess confidence in the probability values; and (5) assessed what we term ‘development viability’ in resulting areas of interest across the state. This paper details the basic project workflow, and activities (1) and (2). It describes the rationale for including this study’s datasets: surface geologic mapping data (calderas, rift zones, volcanic vents, dikes, faults), groundwater data (temperature, Chloride:Magnesium, SiO 2 ) and geophysical data (gravity, magnetotelluric, seismic, geodetic strain), and justifies their relative rankings in terms of H, P, and F. A second paper describes activities (3) and (4) related to the statistical methodology, and a third paper describes activity (5), the development viability criteria, as well as our suggested roadmap for future exploration activities. Overall, we find that the likelihood of abundant of geothermal resources is highest on the youngest island of Hawaii, but groundwater indicators suggest there may also be resources on the other, older islands. Furthermore, the higher demand for renewable energy on the more populated islands of Maui and Oahu, as well as a high viability of development on Lanai, also motivate further exploration on these islands.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Seismic tomography of compressional wave velocity and attenuation structure for Makushin Volcano, Alaska

Located in the central portion of the Alaska-Aleutian subduction zone, Makushin Volcano is among the most active volcanoes in the United States and has been classified as a very high threat by the National Volcano Early Warning System based on its eruptive history and proximity to the City of Unalaska and international air routes. In 2015, five standalone seismic stations and three mini seismic arrays of 15 stations each were deployed on Unalaska Island to supplement the Alaska Volcano Observatory permanent seismic network. This temporary array was operational for one year. Taking advantage of the increased azimuthal coverage and the array's increased earthquake detection capability, we developed body-wave Vp and Vp/Vs seismic images of the velocity structure beneath the volcano. Our results show a complex structure with the upper 4 km of the crust. The shallow high-Vp features possibly delineate remnant magma pathways or conduits. Low-Vp regions are found east of the caldera at approximately 4–8 km depth. This is in agreement with previous seismic tomographic work and InSAR-based geodetic models, which had identified this region as a possible long-term source of magma. A three-dimensional compressional wave attenuation model complemented the velocity models. In general, we observe regions of corresponding low P-wave velocity and high attenuation east of the summit caldera between 5 and 7 km depth, supporting the presence of a melt-rich zone. The absolute Vp values (5.5–6.0 km/s) in this region are consistent with the presence of a magma body with a mafic signature. Here, we suggest that a triggering mechanism that involves mafic injections into a more evolved shallow magma chamber is representative of the current magmatic system below the volcano, similarly to what petrological studies have inferred for past eruptions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Effects of layered crust on the coseismic slip inversion and related CFF variations: Hints from the 2012 Emilia Romagna earthquake

The 2012 Emilia Romagna (Italy) seismic sequence has been extensively studied given the occurrence of two mainshocks, both temporally and spatially close to each other. The recent literature accounts for several fault models, obtained with different inversion methods and different datasets. Several authors investigated the possibility that the second event was triggered by the first mainshock with elusive results. Here, we consider all the available InSAR and GPS datasets and two planar fault geometries, which are based on both seismological and geological constraints. We account for a layered, elastic half-space hosting the dislocation and compare the slip distribution resulting from the inversion and the related changes in Coulomb Failure Function (CFF) obtained with both a homogeneous and layered half-space. Finally, we focus on the interaction between the two main events, discriminating the contributions of coseismic and early postseismic slip of the mainshock on the generation of the second event and discuss the spatio-temporal distribution of the seismic sequence. When accounting for both InSAR and GPS geodetic data we are able to reproduce a detailed coseismic slip distribution for the two mainshocks that is in accordance with the overall aftershock seismicity distribution. Additonally, we see that an elastic medium with depth dependent rigidity better accounts for the lack of the shallow seismicity, amplifying, with respect to the homogeneous case, the mechanical interaction of the two mainshocks.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Frictional and Lithological Controls on Shallow Slow Slip at the Northern Hikurangi Margin

Slow slip events (SSEs) have been identified at subduction zones globally as an important link in the continuum between elastodynamic ruptures and stable creep. The northern Hikurangi margin is home to shallow SSEs which propagate to within 2 km of the seafloor and possibly to the trench, providing insights into the physical conditions conducive to SSE behavior. We report on a suite of friction experiments performed on protolith material entering the SSE source region at the Hikurangi margin, collected during the International Ocean Discovery Program Expedition 375. We performed velocity stepping and slide-hold-slide experiments over a range of fault slip rates, from plate rate (5 cm/yr or 1.6 × 10 –9 m/s) to ~1 mm/s (10 –3 m/s) and quantified the frictional velocity dependence and healing rates for a range of lithologies atdifferent stresses. The frictional velocity dependence (a-b) and critical slip distance DC increase with fault slip rate in our experiments. We observe atransition from velocity weakening to strengthening at slip rates of ~0.3 µm/s. This velocity dependence of DC could be due to a combination of dilatant strengthening and a widening of the active shear zone at higher slip rates. We document low healing rates in the clay-rich volcaniclastic conglomerates, which lie above the incoming plate basement at least locally, and relatively higher healing rates in the chalk lithology. Finally, our experimental constraints on healing rates in different input lithologies extrapolated to timescales of 1–10 years are consistent with the geodetically inferred low stress drops and healing rates characteristic of the Hikurangi SSEs.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Learning the Low Frequency Earthquake Activity on the Central San Andreas Fault

Abstract Low frequency earthquakes (LFEs) originating below the central San Andreas Fault are associated with slow‐slip beneath the seismogenic zone within the more ductile portion of the crust. Monitoring efforts over 15 years detected >1 million LFEs. We train a gradient boosted tree model using statistical features describing the seismic waveforms to estimate the hourly LFE event count. The burst‐like LFE behavior is reproduced, while lower amplitudes are predicted during the most active periods. The hourly event counts are up to 18% greater than the catalog. The ability to continuously monitor LFE activity provides insight to when geodetic measurements of slow slip are possible, without the need for developing a computational‐intensive template‐matching catalog. Similar waveform statistical features are found between detecting LFEs and tremors, which provides additional evidence tremors are composed of LFEs. The approach extracts information contained in continuous seismic waveforms that might benefit detecting precursory signals.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Using the Shallow Strain Tensor to Characterize Deep Geologic Reservoirs

Abstract Storing and recovering water, carbon, and heat from geologic reservoirs is central to managing resources in a changing climate. We tested the hypothesis that the strain tensor caused by injecting or producing fluids can be measured at shallow depths and interpreted to advance understanding of underlying deep aquifers or reservoirs. Geodetic‐grade strainmeters were deployed at 30 m depth overlying the Bartlesville Formation, a 500‐m‐deep sandstone near Tulsa, OK. The strainmeters are 220 m east of injection well 9A completed in a permeable lens at the base of the Bartlesville Formation. Water was injected into well 9A at approximately 1.0 L/s during four tests that ranged in duration from a few hours to a few weeks. The horizontal strain increased (tension) and the circumferential strain was a few times larger than the radial strain. The vertical strain decreased (compression) during injection. Strain rates were approximately 100 nε/day during the first few hours, but the rates decreased and were approximately 10 nε/day during most of the tests. Four independent methods of poroelastic simulation and inversion predict reservoir properties and geometries that are similar to each other and consistent with independent information about the reservoir. All strain interpretations predict that a boundary to the permeable lens occurs beneath the vicinity of the strainmeters, which is consistent with core data from the site. The boundary of the permeable lens is located by matching the vertical, radial and circumferential strains, which demonstrates the value of measuring the strain tensor.

Murdoch, Lawrence C.↗

Real-Time Fault Tracking and Ground Motion Prediction for Large Earthquakes With HR-GNSS and Deep Learning

Earthquake early warning (EEW) systems aim to forecast the shaking intensity rapidly after an earthquake occurs and send warnings to affected areas before the onset of strong shaking. The system relies on rapid and accurate estimation of earthquake source parameters. However, it is known that source estimation for large ruptures in real-time is challenging, and it often leads to magnitude underestimation. In a previous study, we showed that machine learning, HR-GNSS, and realistic rupture synthetics can be used to reliably predict earthquake magnitude. This model, called Machine-Learning Assessed Rapid Geodetic Earthquake model (M-LARGE), can rapidly forecast large earthquake magnitudes with an accuracy of 99%. Here, we expand M-LARGE to predict centroid location and fault size, enabling the construction of the fault rupture extent for forecasting shaking intensity using existing ground motion models. We test our model in the Chilean Subduction Zone with thousands of simulated and five real large earthquakes. The result achieves an average warning time of 40.5 s for shaking intensity MMI4+, surpassing the 34 s obtained by a similar GNSS EEW model. Our approach addresses a critical gap in existing EEW systems for large earthquakes by demonstrating real-time fault tracking feasibility without saturation issues. This capability leads to timely and accurate ground motion forecasts and can support other methods, enhancing the overall effectiveness of EEW systems. Additionally, the ability to predict source parameters for real Chilean earthquakes implies that synthetic data, governed by our understanding of earthquake scaling, is consistent with the actual rupture processes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Dynamic Rupture Simulations of Caldera Collapse Earthquakes: Effects of Wave Radiation, Magma Viscosity, and Evidence of Complex Nucleation at Kilauea 2018

All instrumented basaltic caldera collapses have generated M w > 5 very long period earthquakes. However, previous studies of source dynamics have been limited to lumped models treating the caldera block as rigid, leaving open questions related to how ruptures initiate and propagate around the ring fault, and the seismic expressions of those dynamics. Here, we present the first 3D numerical model capturing the nucleation and propagation of ring fault rupture, the mechanical coupling to the underlying viscoelastic magma, and the associated seismic wavefield. We demonstrate that seismic radiation, neglected in previous models, acts as a damping mechanism reducing coseismic slip by up to half, with effects most pronounced for large magma chamber volume/ring fault radius or highly compliant crust/compressible magma. Viscosity of basaltic magma has negligible effect on collapse dynamics. In contrast, viscosity of silicic magma significantly reduces ring fault slip. We use the model to simulate the 2018 Kilauea caldera collapse. Three stages of collapse, characterized by ring fault rupture initiation and propagation, deceleration of the downward-moving caldera block and magma column, and post-collapse resonant oscillations, in addition to chamber pressurization, are identified in simulated and observed (unfiltered) near-field seismograms. A detailed comparison of simulated and observed displacement waveforms corresponding to collapse earthquakes with hypocenters at various azimuths of the ring fault reveals a complex nucleation phase for earthquakes initiated on the northwest. Our numerical simulation framework will enhance future efforts to reconcile seismic and geodetic observations of caldera collapse with conceptual models of ring fault and magma chamber dynamics.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Potential of Hydrogeodesy to Address Water-Related and Sustainability Challenges

Increasing climatic and human pressures are changing the world's water resources and hydrological processes at unprecedented rates. Understanding these changes requires comprehensive monitoring of water resources. Hydrogeodesy, the science that measures the Earth's solid and aquatic surfaces, gravity field, and their changes over time, delivers a range of novel monitoring tools that are complementary to traditional hydrological methods. It encompasses geodetic technologies such as Altimetry, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR), Gravimetry, and Global Navigation Satellite Systems (GNSS). Beyond quantifying these changes, there is a need to understand how hydrogeodesy can contribute to more ambitious goals dealing with water-related and sustainability sciences. Addressing this need, we combine a meta-analysis of over 3,000 articles to chart the range, trends, and applications of satellite-based hydrogeodesy with an expert elicitation that systematically assesses the potential of hydrogeodesy. We find a growing body of literature relating to the advancements in hydrogeodetic methods, their accuracy and precision, and their inclusion in hydrological modeling, with a considerably smaller portion related to understanding hydrological processes, water management, and sustainability sciences. The meta-analysis also shows that while lakes, groundwater and glaciers are commonly monitored by these technologies, wetlands or permafrost could benefit from a wider range of applications. In turn, the expert elicitation envisages the potential of hydrogeodesy to help solve the 23 Unsolved Questions of the International Association of Hydrological Sciences and advance knowledge as guidance toward a safe operating space for humanity. It also highlights how this potential can be maximized by combining hydrogeodetic technologies simultaneously, exploiting artificial intelligence, and accurately integrating other Earth science disciplines. Finally, we call for a coordinated way forward to include hydrogeodesy in tertiary education and broaden its application to water-related and sustainability sciences in order to exploit its full potential.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Three-Dimensional Network Adjustment of Laser Tracker Measurements for Large-Scale Metrology Applications

The adjustment of laser tracker network measurements for large-scale metrology applications has unique considerations not commonly encountered in the network adjustment approaches generally used in either standard metrology or in traditional geodetic surveying. Many applications that require the measurement accuracy of a laser tracker are confined to small working areas to measure the dimensional quality of manufactured parts. Large-scale metrology applications require the same high measurement accuracy, but over a comparatively larger working area. This paper describes a unified least-squares approach to adjust three-dimensional survey network measurements that takes into account the unique considerations of large-scale metrology networks. The impetus for these unique considerations arises from an application that falls neatly between the disciplines of metrology and geodesy—resembling a mixture of the conditions and requirements from both. In conclusion, this paper will also describe a case study of a large-scale metrology survey network used to align the particle accelerator at Michigan State University’s Facility for Rare Isotope Beams (FRIB).

42 ENGINEERING↗

Survey and adjustment methods applied on an 11 axes high performance reflectometer for synchrotron radiation

At BESSY-II a new UV-and XUV optics beamline [1] has recently been setup with an in-house developed versatile reflectometer [2], [3], [4] for at-wavelength metrology on reflective and diffractive optical elements up to 4 kg mass. High precision measurements of the reflection and polarization properties are feasible by a 360° azimuthal rotation of the sample around the beam of light, where samples can be adjusted reproducibly with a novel UHV-Tripod within arc sec and μm precision. The azimuthal rotation requires an extremely high precision adjustment of the goniometer axis with respect to the incident light beam. Here we describe sophisticated methods with which we achieve nearly perfect agreement of the azimuthal rotation axis and the synchrotron beam in the 30 arc sec range. By using geodetic instruments (lasertracker, theodolite, autocollimator) the quality of the reflectometer UHV-mechanics has been characterized with respect to stiffness and radial run out with highest precision [5].

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

Widespread deep seismicity in the Delaware Basin, Texas, is mainly driven by shallow wastewater injection

Significance The Delaware Basin, western Texas, has experienced a surge in the number of earthquakes. We investigate basin-wide earthquake, hydrogeologic, industrial, and geodetic data spanning 1993–2020 to identify the reasons for the increase. We use these data and models to quantify the stress changes from wastewater injection and hydrocarbon extraction. We demonstrate that the basin-wide seismicity is dominated by the stresses caused by shallow injection that are transmitted vertically by deforming the underlying crust. We analyze both injection and production data to understand how subsurface properties control earthquake locations and timings. We suggest that injecting wastewater into porous formations will minimize seismic hazard. We establish a framework explaining why earthquakes sometimes occur and sometimes do not occur within human activity-impacted areas.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fault geometry and slip distribution of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan, China earthquake, inferred from GPS and InSAR measurements

We revisit the problem of coseismic rupture of the 2008 M w 7.9 Wenchuan earthquake. Precise determination of the fault structure and slip distribution provides critical information about the mechanical behaviour of the fault system and earthquake rupture. We use all the geodetic data available, craft a more realistic Earth structure and fault model compared to previous studies, and employ a nonlinear inversion scheme to optimally solve for the fault geometry and slip distribution. Compared to a homogeneous elastic half-space model and laterally uniform layered models, adopting separate layered elastic structure models on both sides of the Beichuan fault significantly improved data fitting. Our results reveal that: (1) The Beichuan fault is listric in shape, with near surface fault dip angles increasing from ~36° at the southwest end to ~83° at the northeast end of the rupture. (2) The fault rupture style changes from predominantly thrust at the southwest end to dextral at the northeast end of the fault rupture. (3) Fault slip peaks near the surface for most parts of the fault, with~8.4mthrust and ~5 m dextral slip near Hongkou and ~6 m thrust and ~8.4 m dextral slip near Beichuan, respectively. (4) The peak slips are located around fault geometric complexities, suggesting that earthquake style and rupture propagation were determined by fault zone geometric barriers. Such barriers exist primarily along restraining left stepping discontinuities of the dextralcompressional fault system. (5) The seismic moment released on the fault above 20 km depth is 8.2 × 10 21 N m, corresponding to an M w 7.9 event. The seismic moments released on the local slip concentrations are equivalent to events of M w 7.5 at Yingxiu-Hongkou, M w 7.3 at Beichuan-Pingtong, M w 7.2 near Qingping, M w 7.1 near Qingchuan, and M w 6.7 near Nanba, respectively. (6) The fault geometry and kinematics are consistent with a model in which crustal deformation at the eastern margin of the Tibetan plateau is decoupled by differential motion across a decollement in the mid crust, above which deformation is dominated by brittle reverse faulting and below which deformation occurs by viscous horizontal shortening and vertical thickening.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Estimating fluid-induced stress change from observed deformation

Observed deformation is sensitive to a changing stress field within the Earth. There are, however, several impediments to a direct inversion of geodetic measurements for changes in stress. Estimating six independent components of stress change from a smaller number of displacement or strain components is inherently non-unique. The reliance upon surface measurements leads to a loss of resolution, due to the attenuation of higher spatial frequencies in the displacement field with distance from a source. Here, we adopt a technique suited to the estimation of stress changes due to the injection and/or withdrawal of fluids at depth. In this approach the surface displacement data provides an estimate of the volume change responsible for the deformation, rather than stress changes themselves. The inversion for volume change is constrained by the fluid fluxes into and out of the reservoir. The distribution of volume change is used to calculate the displacements in the region above the reservoir. Estimates of stress change follow from differentiating the displacement field in conjunction with a geomechanical model of the o verburden. We also apply the technique to Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) observations gathered over a petroleum reservoir in the San Joaquin Valley of California. An analysis of the InSAR range changes reveals that the stress field in the overburden varies rapidly both in space and in time. The inferred stress variations are found to be compatible with the documented failure of a well in the field.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

A VLBA-uGMRT search for candidate binary black holes: study of six X-shaped radio galaxies with double-peaked emission lines

ABSTRACT Identifying methods to discover dual active galactic nucleus (AGN) has proven to be challenging. Several indirect tracers have been explored in the literature, including X/S-shaped radio morphologies and double-peaked (DP) emission lines in the optical spectra. However, the detection rates of confirmed dual AGN candidates from the individual methods remain extremely small. We search for binary black holes (BBH) in a sample of six sources that exhibit both X-shaped radio morphology and DP emission lines using the Very Long Baseline Array (VLBA). Three out of the six sources show dual VLBA compact components, making them strong candidates for BBH sources. In addition, we present deep uGMRT images revealing the exquisite details of the X-shaped wings in three sources. We present a detailed precession modeling analysis of these sources. The black hole separations estimated from the simplistic geodetic precession model are incompatible with those estimated from emission line offsets and the VLBA separations. However, precession induced by a non-coplanar secondary black hole is a feasible mechanism for explaining the observed X-shaped radio morphologies and the black hole separations estimated from other methods. The black hole separations estimated from the double-peaked emission lines agree well with the VLBA compact component separations. Future multifrequency VLBA observations will be critical in ruling out or confirming the BBH scenario in the three galaxies with dual component detections.

Sebastian, Biny (ORCID:0000000184286525)↗

Measuring a Low Horizontal Hydraulic Gradient in a High Transmissivity Aquifer

Abstract High transmissivity aquifers typically have low hydraulic gradients (i.e., a flat water table). Measuring low gradients using water levels can be problematic because measurement error may be greater than the true difference in water levels (i.e., a low signal‐to‐noise ratio). In this study, the feasibility of measuring a hydraulic gradient in the range of 10 −6 to 10 −5 m/m was demonstrated. The study was performed at a site where the depth to water from land surface ranged from 40.1 to 94.2 m and the aquifer transmissivity was estimated at 41,300 m 2 /d (hydraulic conductivity of 18,800 m/d). The goals of the study were to reduce measurement error as much as practicable and assess the importance of factors affecting water level measurement accuracy. Well verticality was the largest source of error (0.000 to 0.168 m; median of 0.014 m), and geodetic survey of casing elevations was the next most important source of error (0.002 to 0.013 m; median of 0.005 m). Variability due to barometric pressure fluctuations was not an important factor at the site. Hydraulic heads were measured to an accuracy of ±0.0065 m, and the average hydraulic gradient was estimated to be 8.0 × 10 −6 (±0.9 × 10 −6 ) m/m. The improvement in accuracy allowed for two reversals in the groundwater flow direction to be identified, after which the gradient averaged 2.5 × 10 −5 (±0.4 × 10 −5 ) m/m. This study showed it is possible to sufficiently control sources of error to measure hydraulic gradients in the 10 −6 to 10 −5 m/m range.

McDonald, John P.↗

The rise, collapse, and compaction of Mt. Mantap from the 3 September 2017 North Korean nuclear test

Surveillance of clandestine nuclear tests relies on a global seismic network, but the potential of spaceborne monitoring has been underexploited. Here we used satellite radar imagery to determine the complete surface displacement field of up to 3.5 meters of divergent horizontal motion with 0.5 meters of subsidence associated with North Korea’s largest underground nuclear test. Combining insight from geodetic and seismological remote sensing, we found that the aftermath of the initial explosive deformation involved subsidence associated with subsurface collapse and aseismic compaction of the damaged rocks of the test site. The explosive yield from the nuclear detonation with best-fitting source parameters for 450-meter depth was 191 kilotonnes of TNT equivalent. Finally, our results demonstrate the capability of spaceborne remote sensing to help characterize large underground nuclear tests.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗

Late Quaternary slip-rate along the central Bangong-Chaxikang segment of the Karakorum fault, western Tibet

Insight into the spatial and temporal changes of slip-rate is essential to understand the kinematic role of large strike-slip faults in continental collision zones. Geodetic and geologic rates from present to several million years ago along the Karakorum fault range from 0 to 11 mm/yr. Here, we determine the first late Quaternary slip-rate at the southern end of the linear Bangong-Chaxikang segment of the Karakorum fault, using cumulative offsets (20–200 m) of fans and terraces at three sites, as well as 74 new 10 Be surface-exposure ages to constrain the age of these offset geomorphic markers. The rate is >3 mm/yr at sites Gun and Chaxikang, and it is >1.7–2.2 mm/yr at the Gar fan site. Together with rates obtained along the southernmost Menshi-Kailas segment, the Karakorum fault slip-rate seems to increase southeastward from south of Bangong Lake to Kailas (from >3 to >8 mm/yr). These Karakorum fault slip-rate data (>3–8 mm/yr), together with the total length of the fault (>1000 km) and its initiation age (>13–23 Ma), confirm that the Karakorum fault is the major fault accommodating dextral strike-slip motion NE of the western Himalayas. Furthermore, the dextral Karakorum fault in the south and the conjugate left-lateral Longmu Co–Altyn Tagh fault system in the north are thus the major strike-slip faults of western Tibet, which contribute to eastward extrusion of Tibet.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗