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NASA NTRS2024

Dielectric Permittivity Measurements of Geologic Samples at Venus Surface Temperatures

Synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) and radar sounding are two powerful remote sensing techniques used to examine the surface and subsurface of planets. Their value is critical in the case of Venus due to this planet’s global and visually opaque cloud layer. The recently selected VERITAS and EnVision orbital missions, slated to study the planet in the early 2030’s, employ radar instruments to image the surface (VERITAS and EnVision) and probe the subsurface (EnVision). For both techniques, the complex dielectric permittivity of the surface and subsurface materials control radar backscatter intensity and penetration depth. Since the 1970’s, many studies have characterized the dielectric permittivity of geologic materials collected both on Earth and on the Moon to constrain the radar reflectivity and transparency at a variety of radar frequencies [e.g., 1]. Two consistent findings from those studies are that complex permittivity depends on both the density (or porosity) and the composition of the material. Denser materials and more metal-rich compositions tend to have higher permittivity values and to incur greater propagation path loss. Water content also elevates permittivity of otherwise dry rocks/soils/regolith [e.g., 2]. However, permittivity is independent of frequency for the 0.5-18 GHz range, within which SAR imaging commonly lies. The one aspect poorly explored thus far is the effect of elevated temperatures on dielectric permittivity. Previous work suggests that increased lattice vibrations and flow of free electrons associated with an increase in temperature elevate both the real (reflectivity) and imaginary (path loss) parts of the complex permittivity. We are currently conducting a 3-year campaign to measure the complex dielectric permittivity of Venusrelevant geologic materials at Venus surface temperatures (380°C - 460°C) and with frequencies relevant to VERITAS, EnVision, and Magellan imaging synthetic aperture radars.

M Barmatz↗

NASA NTRS1998

Modelling and Estimation of Dynamic Ocean Topography Within Global Geopotential Solutions

In this poster, we will present a report on the ongoing investigation "Improved Gravitational and Dynamic Height Models Through the use of Oceanographic Data." we have used a two year mean (1993-1994) of the Dynamic ocean Topography (DOT) field implied by the Semtner and Chervin POCM_4B model, and developed normal equations in surface spherical harmonics to degree and order 30. These normal equations, were combined with normal equations derived from TOPEX and ERS-1 altimeter data over the same time period. Combination solutions (based on satellite tracking data, altimeter data, surface gravity data and OCM data) were were developed Test solutions were obtained estimating the DOT field to 2Ox2O and 3ox3O. These solutions were tested with independent DOT values computed over 38 WOCE hydrographic sections, which contained a total of 3072 stations and represented 216000 km of travelled lines. The weighted standard deviation of the differences between the DOT obtained from the hydrographic data and and the field estimated from the joint combination solutions was computed for each of the test models, the weighted standard deviation for the baseline combination solution excluding the POCM4_B data was 9.7 cm for a DOT solution to 30x30, where introducing the POCM4_B data into the combination model reduced the standard deviation to 9.2 cm, indicating the the introduction of oceanographic information benefits the solution for the dynamic ocean topography. We will discuss the weighting schemes applied and the method of solution. Another aspect of our investigation involves testing alternate parametric representations of the dynamic height field. We looked at the alternative representations in terms of the Proudman functions (PF), and compared these to the use of spherical harmonics (SH) to represent the dynamic ocean topography, using once again the 1993 and 1994 output of the POCM4_B OCM as the reference model. A significant advantage of PF's over SH's is that the former require no "fill-in" values over areas where the DOT is undefined. We show that the PF and SH results using equal number of parameters agree quite well in overall content. In addition, PFs appear better suited for representation of high frequency signals close to the signal boundary. The development of the PF solutions for the DOT will be described and the statistics of the comparisons will be presented.

Lemoine, Frank G.↗

NASA NTRS2004

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Robertson, F. R.↗

NASA NTRS2000

Interannual Variability of the Tropical Energy Balance: Reconciling Observations and Models

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over the tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-11 effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean heat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability than do the satellite precipitation observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2005

Mars Orbiter Sample Return Power Design

Mars has greatly intrigued scientists and the general public for many years because, of all the planets, its environment is most like Earth's. Many scientists believe that Mars once had running water, although surface water is gone today. The planet is very cold with a very thin atmosphere consisting mainly of CO2. Mariner 4, 6, and 7 explored the planet in flybys in the 1960s and by the orbiting Mariner 9 in 1971. NASA then mounted the ambitious Viking mission, which launched two orbiters and two landers to the planet in 1975. The landers found ambiguous evidence of life. Mars Pathfinder landed on the planet on July 4, 1997, delivering a mobile robot rover that demonstrated exploration of the local surface environment. Mars Global Surveyor is creating a highest-resolution map of the planet's surface. These prior and current missions to Mars have paved the way for a complex Mars Sample Return mission planned for 2003 and 2005. Returning surface samples from Mars will necessitate retrieval of material from Mars orbit. Sample mass and orbit are restricted to the launch capability of the Mars Ascent Vehicle. A small sample canister having a mass less than 4 kg and diameter of less than 16 cm will spend from three to seven years in a 600 km orbit waiting for retrieval by a second spacecraft consisting of an orbiter equipped with a sample canister retrieval system, and a Earth Entry Vehicle. To allow rapid detection of the on-orbit canister, rendezvous, and collection of the samples, the canister will have a tracking beacon powered by a surface mounted solar array. The canister must communicate using RF transmission with the recovery vehicle that will be coming in 2006 or 2009 to retrieve the canister. This paper considers the aspect and conclusion that went into the design of the power system that achieves the maximum power with the minimum risk. The power output for the spherical orbiting canister was modeled and plotted in various views of the orbit by the Satellite Orbit Analysis Program (SOAP).

Mardesich, N.↗

NASA NTRS2014

Sources, Sinks, and Transatlantic Transport of North African Dust Aerosol: A Multimodel Analysis and Comparison With Remote Sensing Data

This study evaluates model-simulated dust aerosols over North Africa and the North Atlantic from five global models that participated in the Aerosol Comparison between Observations and Models phase II model experiments. The model results are compared with satellite aerosol optical depth (AOD) data from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), Multiangle Imaging Spectroradiometer (MISR), and Sea-viewing Wide Field-of-view Sensor, dust optical depth (DOD) derived from MODIS and MISR, AOD and coarse-mode AOD (as a proxy of DOD) from ground-based Aerosol Robotic Network Sun photometer measurements, and dust vertical distributions/centroid height from Cloud Aerosol Lidar with Orthogonal Polarization and Atmospheric Infrared Sounder satellite AOD retrievals. We examine the following quantities of AOD and DOD: (1) the magnitudes over land and over ocean in our study domain, (2) the longitudinal gradient from the dust source region over North Africa to the western North Atlantic, (3) seasonal variations at different locations, and (4) the dust vertical profile shape and the AOD centroid height (altitude above or below which half of the AOD is located). The different satellite data show consistent features in most of these aspects; however, the models display large diversity in all of them, with significant differences among the models and between models and observations. By examining dust emission, removal, and mass extinction efficiency in the five models, we also find remarkable differences among the models that all contribute to the discrepancies of model-simulated dust amount and distribution. This study highlights the challenges in simulating the dust physical and optical processes, even in the best known dust environment, and stresses the need for observable quantities to constrain the model processes.

Africa↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Surviving and Thriving in Space and on Earth's Oceans - Human Logistics and Sustainability Comparisons and Considerations

The human species has a yearning for exploration as evidenced by the extensive historical ocean voyages and expeditions which have led to a massive advancement in the scientific and geodetic knowledge about planet Earth. These global explorations via the oceans have also had strategic, economic, cultural and religious implications and impacts, which have drastically changed the state of humanity and its condition. The transportation network created by ships traveling across the oceans has been supplemented by other transportation networks on land and in the air, creating a global economy that, in general, has improved the human condition leading to better health, longer lives, lower child mortality, better education, political freedom, higher gross national product (GNP) and improved hygiene. The logical extension of this societal trend is to extend the transportation network and human civilization into outer space, beyond the cradle of planet Earth. Our solar system contains vast amounts of natural resources which can be harnessed and used to bootstrap a space economy and related infrastructure by using advanced technologies. Sailing journeys from hundreds of years ago required large vessels and large crews, (in comparison with today’s space capsules). Modern sailors of today are able to complete large voyages, in small vessels, with a minimal crew, comparable in magnitude to modern space travel. This paper will use a systems engineering approach (e.g. using the NASA Human Integration Design Handbook (HIDH), NASA-SP-2010-3407, 2010 and the “Advanced Life Support Baseline Values and Assumptions Document, (BVAD)” NASA-CR-2004-208941, 2004.), to examine and compare the logistics and sustainability aspects of a small crew traveling on Earth's oceans in sailing vessels versus humans traveling in space. The “Mālama Honua Worldwide Voyage” of the Hokule’a, a replica of an ancient Hawaiian double hulled sailing canoe, will be used as a case study. This is the best comparison case since the Polynesian exploration of the vast (and virtually empty) Pacific Ocean is the closest analogue to modern space travel. “"Both are voyages of exploration.” –Shuttle astronaut Lacy Veach. Minimizing waste and maximizing re-use and re-cycling will lead to more efficient logistics and sustainability. In addition, In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) strategies, based on successful Earth based strategies used for many years by sailors will be considered and evaluated for their usefulness. For example, human logistics for a typical space mission are shown in Table 1 and Table 2 (Lopez et al, 2015). Studies show that typical human water consumption in space is projected to be 3.2 kg/day per crew member as shown in Table 2. Data from human sailing voyages around the globe will be examined. Anecdotal evidence indicates that knowledgeable and well-equipped modern sailors, who conserve water, can comfortably live using 1.5 to 5 kg/day per person. This paper will investigate key logistics and sustainability aspects of living in space and compare them quantitatively to similar aspects of living on ocean faring sailing vessels on Earth. Mutually beneficial observations, advanced technologies and modern considerations will be applied within confines of a remote sailing environment, which could be of immense value to both the space faring community and the ocean sailing community.

Space↗

NASA NTRS1995

Atmospheric environmental implications of propulsion systems

Three independent studies have been conducted for assessing the impact of rocket launches on the earth's environment. These studies have addressed issues of acid rain in the troposphere, ozone depletion in the stratosphere, toxicity of chemical rocket exhaust products, and the potential impact on global warming from carbon dioxide emissions from rocket launches. Local, regional, and global impact assessments were examined and compared with both natural sources and anthropogenic sources of known atmospheric pollutants with the following conclusions: (1) Neither solid nor liquid rocket launches have a significant impact on the earth's global environment, and there is no real significant difference between the two. (2) Regional and local atmospheric impacts are more significant than global impacts, but quickly return to normal background conditions within a few hours after launch. And (3) vastly increased space launch activities equivalent to 50 U.S. Space Shuttles or 50 Russian Energia launches per year would not significantly impact these conclusions. However, these assessments, for the most part, are based upon homogeneous gas phase chemistry analysis; heterogeneous chemistry from exhaust particulates, such as aluminum oxide, ice contrails, soot, etc., and the influence of plume temperature and afterburning of fuel-rich exhaust products, need to be further addressed. It was the consensus of these studies that computer modeling of interactive plume chemistry with the atmosphere needs to be improved and computer models need to be verified with experimental data. Rocket exhaust plume chemistry can be modified with propellant reformulation and changes in operating conditions, but, based upon the current state of knowledge, it does not appear that significant environmental improvements from propellant formulation changes can be made or are warranted. Flight safety, reliability, and cost improvements are paramount for any new rocket system, and these important aspects cannot be compromised. A detailed environmental cost-benefit-risk analysis must be conducted before any new chemistry or changes in rocket operating conditions should be seriously considered for any future space or defense applications. This paper presents a summary of the results of environmental assessments contained in these independent studies.

Mcdonald, Allan J.↗

NASA NTRS2001

Interannual Variability of Tropical Precipitation: How Well Do Climate Models Agree With Current Satellite Estimates?

Since the beginning of the World Climate Research Program's Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) satellite remote sensing of precipitation has made dramatic improvements, particularly for tropical regions. Data from microwave and infrared sensors now form the most critical input to precipitation data sets and can be calibrated with surface gauges to so that the strengths of each data source can be maximized in some statistically optimal sense. Recent availability of the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) has further aided in narrowing uncertainties in rainfall over die tropics and subtropics. Although climate modeling efforts have long relied on space-based precipitation estimates for validation, we now are in a position to make more quantitative assessments of model performance, particularly in tropical regions. An integration of the CCM3 using observed SSTs as a lower boundary condition is used to examine how well this model responds to ENSO forcing in terms of anomalous precipitation. An integration of the NCEP spectral model used for the Reanalysis-H effort is also examined. This integration is run with specified SSTs, but with no data assimilation. Our analysis focuses on two aspects of inter-annual variability. First are the spatial anomalies that are indicative of dislocations in Hadley and Walker circulations. Second, we consider the ability of models to replicate observed increases in oceanic precipitation that are noted in satellite observations for large ENSO events. Finally, we consider a slab ocean version of the CCM3 model with prescribed ocean beat transports that mimic upwelling anomalies, but which still allows the surface energy balance to be predicted. This less restrictive experiment is used to understand why model experiments with specified SSTs seem to have noticeably less interannual variability in precipitation than do the satellite observations.

Robertson, Franklin R.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Exploring the Solar System from Wherever You Are

NASA's Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) represents a close collaboration between science, technology and exploration that will enable deeper understanding of the Moon and other airless bodies as we move further out of low-Earth orbit. The Solar System Exploration Research Virtual Institute (SSERVI) focuses on the scientific aspects of exploration as they pertain to the Moon, Near Earth Asteroids (NEA's) and the moons of Mars. The Institute research areas are centered on interdisciplinary, exploration-related science of airless bodies targeted as potential human destinations. Areas of study represent the broad spectrum of lunar, NEA, and Martian moon sciences encompassing investigations of the surface, interior, exosphere, and near-space environments as well as science uniquely enabled from these bodies.The SSERVI central office is based at NASA Ames in Silicon Valley a hot spot for innovative and cost-savings approaches to space exploration and rapid advances in technology development. The administrative staff at the central office forms the organizational hub for the domestic and international teams and enables the virtual collaborative environment. The SSERVI teams are supported jointly from NASA's Science Mission Directorate and Human Exploration and Operations Mission Directorate. Teams are funded for five years. Calls for proposals are issued every 2-3 years to allow overlap between generations of institute teams. Interactions with geographically dispersed teams across the U.S., and global partners, occur easily and frequently in a collaborative virtual environment. This talk will provide a closer look at research being conducted by the current US teams, our 8 international partners and information about future opportunities to participate in SSERVI.

Pendleton, Y. J.↗

NASA NTRS2016

On-Orbit Manufacturing From Orbital Factories to In Situ Resource Utilization

This webinar will review commercial prospects for manufacturing in orbit. Doing business in space is rapidly becoming more reliable, affordable and accessible. From 2010 to 2015 launch prices went down by a factor of 10 or more, to about $5,000kg while investments into Space 2.0 companies and technologies are closing in on $2.5 Billion (New Space Global). With three commercial suppliers (SpaceX, Orbital ATK and Sierra Nevada Corp) to Earths orbits, mission frequency is improving dramatically. Moreover, private space companies (SpaceX Reusable Dragon Lab; Bigelows B330) are also scouting the opportunities of renting or selling modules as platforms for orbital free-flying facilities; modules that can be used for automated fabrication to manned experiments.Topics addressed in the webinar include: 1. Case studies of unique competitive advantages that can be gained from microgravity and space vacuum: wafer reprocessing, fiber optics, crystal growth;2. Prospective solar power orbital data centers;3. Reuse and recycling of orbital debris as a possible feedstock for robotic 3D fabrication potentially in the vacuum as well as inside facilities;4. The story behind the original WakeShield wafer fabrication facility and its relevance to todays activities;5. Energy needs for on-orbit manufacturing6. Environmental value proposition of on-orbit manufacturing for products with toxic byproducts or excessively large green house gases footprints;7. Longer term scenario of flexible, connected, automated, intelligent and sustainable orbital factories of the future.Opening up a less-appreciated aspect of NewSpace, this webinar will be of high interest to CTOs, Directors and Managers from product development to RD, Innovation Strategy leaders, and investors, across many different industrial verticals (materials, electronics, pharmaceuticals, advanced sustainable manufacturing, bioengineering, etc.)and anyone trying to understand what value space can have for their business in the near and far future.

Cozmuta, Ioana↗

NASA NTRS2012

New Approaches to Quantifying Transport Model Error in Atmospheric CO2 Simulations

In recent years, much progress has been made in observing CO2 distributions from space. However, the use of these observations to infer source/sink distributions in inversion studies continues to be complicated by difficulty in quantifying atmospheric transport model errors. We will present results from several different experiments designed to quantify different aspects of transport error using the Goddard Earth Observing System, Version 5 (GEOS-5) Atmospheric General Circulation Model (AGCM). In the first set of experiments, an ensemble of simulations is constructed using perturbations to parameters in the model s moist physics and turbulence parameterizations that control sub-grid scale transport of trace gases. Analysis of the ensemble spread and scales of temporal and spatial variability among the simulations allows insight into how parameterized, small-scale transport processes influence simulated CO2 distributions. In the second set of experiments, atmospheric tracers representing model error are constructed using observation minus analysis statistics from NASA's Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications (MERRA). The goal of these simulations is to understand how errors in large scale dynamics are distributed, and how they propagate in space and time, affecting trace gas distributions. These simulations will also be compared to results from NASA's Carbon Monitoring System Flux Pilot Project that quantified the impact of uncertainty in satellite constrained CO2 flux estimates on atmospheric mixing ratios to assess the major factors governing uncertainty in global and regional trace gas distributions.

Ott, L.↗

NASA NTRS2003

Using a Portfolio of Algorithms for Planning and Scheduling

The Automated Scheduling and Planning Environment (ASPEN) software system, aspects of which have been reported in several previous NASA Tech Briefs articles, includes a subsystem that utilizes a portfolio of heuristic algorithms that work synergistically to solve problems. The nature of the synergy of the specific algorithms is that their likelihoods of success are negatively correlated: that is, when a combination of them is used to solve a problem, the probability that at least one of them will succeed is greater than the sum of probabilities of success of the individual algorithms operating independently of each other. In ASPEN, the portfolio of algorithms is used in a planning process of the iterative repair type, in which conflicts are detected and addressed one at a time until either no conflicts exist or a user-defined time limit has been exceeded. At each choice point (e.g., selection of conflict; selection of method of resolution of conflict; or choice of move, addition, or deletion) ASPEN makes a stochastic choice of a combination of algorithms from the portfolio. This approach makes it possible for the search to escape from looping and from solutions that are locally but not globally optimum.

Sherwood, Robert↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

High-Altitude ADS-B/GPS LPV Flight Tests on a NASA ER-2 Research Airplane

The research presented in this paper describes the conceptual design of a system architecture that integrates Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast (ADS-B) and Global Positioning System (GPS) Localizer Performance Vertical (LPV) guidance technology onto a unique high-altitude research airplane: a United States Air Force (USAF) / Lockheed Martin (Bethesda, Maryland) Aeronautics U-2S airplane. The design features modern display capabilities to provide air-to-air surveillance and precision navigation, to adhere to Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) certification standards for operations in upper Class E airspace. The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) variant of the U-2S, now called the Earth Resources (ER-2) airplane, remains unrivaled in the art of sustained high-altitude flight for scientific expeditions. Capable of routinely cruising above flight level (FL) 650 that had been considered, at inception, the domain of only the most elite experimental research aircraft types. Nicknamed the Dragon Lady, this U-2S research testbed is still one of the most advanced aircraft in the world. The exceptional military design of the vehicle, security guidelines, and the performance envelope of the ER-2 posed unique challenges to the integration of modern civilian avionics. ADS-B epitomizes the next generation of surveillance technology, incorporating both air and ground aspects. ADS-B provides air traffic control (ATC) with a more accurate picture of the three-dimensional positioning of aircraft in various phases of flight, including en route, terminal, approach, and ground operations. The airborne surveillance system broadcasts its identification, position, altitude, velocity, and other information. GPS LPV represents a significant advancement in aviation technology, emphasizing the pivotal role that GPS and Performance-Based Navigation concepts will play in the foreseeable future. This technology represents a shift from sensor-based navigation to performance-based navigation, allowing for more flexible and efficient use of airspace. This research described herein is structured as follows: Section II, “Systems Background,” provides a systems background and description of an ADS-B and GPS LPV system equipped on the high-altitude ER-2 research airplane to satisfy the FAA airworthiness requirements for high-altitude flight operations. Section III, “Flight Test System,” describes the flight-test airplane systems. Section IV, “Analysis of GPS SBAS, Safety, and Ground Tests,” provides an overview of the GPS Satellite-Based Augmentation System (SBAS) and an analysis of the GPS LPV metrics, safety, and ground tests. Section V, “High-Altitude Flight Tests,” describes the high-altitude flight tests, including 3 flight-test results, analysis, human factors, and lessons learned. Section VI, the conclusion, draws insights from the lessons learned, discusses the design challenges associated with ADS-B and GPS LPV, and showcases the paramount significance of these pivotal technologies in aircraft surveillance and navigation.

Ricardo A. Arteaga↗

NASA NTRS2021

Climate model projections from the Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) of CMIP6

The Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMIP) defines and coordinates the main set of future climate projections, based on concentration-driven simulations, within the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6). This paper presents a range of its outcomes by synthesizing results from the participating global coupled Earth system models. We limit our scope to the analysis of strictly geophysical outcomes: mainly global averages and spatial patterns of change for surface air temperature and precipitation. We also compare CMIP6 projections to CMIP5 results, especially for those scenarios that were designed to provide continuity across the CMIP phases, at the same time highlighting important differences in forcing composition, as well as in results. The range of future temperature and precipitation changes by the end of the century (2081–2100) encompassing the Tier 1 experiments based on the Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP) scenarios (SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5) and SSP1-1.9 spans a larger range of outcomes compared to CMIP5, due to higher warming (by close to 1.5 °C) reached at the upper end of the 5 %–95 % envelope of the highest scenario (SSP5-8.5). This is due to both the wider range of radiative forcing that the new scenarios cover and the higher climate sensitivities in some of the new models compared to their CMIP5 predecessors. Spatial patterns of change for temperature and precipitation averaged over models and scenarios have familiar features, and an analysis of their variations confirms model structural differences to be the dominant source of uncertainty. Models also differ with respect to the size and evolution of internal variability as measured by individual models' initial condition ensemble spreads, according to a set of initial condition ensemble simulations available under SSP3-7.0. These experiments suggest a tendency for internal variability to decrease along the course of the century in this scenario, a result that will benefit from further analysis over a larger set of models. Benefits of mitigation, all else being equal in terms of societal drivers, appear clearly when comparing scenarios developed under the same SSP but to which different degrees of mitigation have been applied. It is also found that a mild overshoot in temperature of a few decades around mid-century, as represented in SSP5-3.4OS, does not affect the end outcome of temperature and precipitation changes by 2100, which return to the same levels as those reached by the gradually increasing SSP4-3.4 (not erasing the possibility, however, that other aspects of the system may not be as easily reversible). Central estimates of the time at which the ensemble means of the different scenarios reach a given warming level might be biased by the inclusion of models that have shown faster warming in the historical period than the observed. Those estimates show all scenarios reaching 1.5 °C of warming compared to the 1850–1900 baseline in the second half of the current decade, with the time span between slow and fast warming covering between 20 and 27 years from present. The warming level of 2 °C of warming is reached as early as 2039 by the ensemble mean under SSP5-8.5 but as late as the mid-2060s under SSP1-2.6. The highest warming level considered (5 °C) is reached by the ensemble mean only under SSP5-8.5 and not until the mid-2090s.d-2090s.

Scenario Model Intercomparison Project (ScenarioMI↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Evidence of Participation in the Advancement of Knowledge from 25 Years of Publications for the GLOBE Program

The Global Learning and Observations to Benefit the Environment (GLOBE) Program was announced on Earth Day 1994 and began on Earth Day 1995. Over the first 25 years of its operation, there have been more than 600 formal publications and 340 conference presentations about the program, in at least 15 languages. As the 25th anniversary of the program approached, we began a focused effort to find and characterize those publications in order to better understand GLOBE’s impact to date as well as its future potential. GLOBE was envisioned from the beginning as a science and education program, so GLOBE publications cover a wide range of topics across Earth system science as well as in education and evaluation topics. To characterize the collection, a large set of dimensions was first identified from the literature, across science and education. These include codes related to: motivation and conception of the research investigation, educator practices and training, education outcomes & demonstration that these outcomes were achieved, data and study scope, characteristics of the investigation or its findings. Application of these codes was first tested by three raters (the first three authors) on a subset of the publications, then refined to capture missing aspects. The full set of publications was then rated on the full set of criteria. As a second step, subsets of the collection with particularly in depth discussion of The GLOBE Program are now being analyzed in more detail. This poster will summarize various attributes of the GLOBE bibliography and identify areas of potential for further geoscience investigations.

Lin Chambers↗

NASA NTRS2001

Weather Prediction Improvement Using Advanced Satellite Technology

We discuss in this paper some of the problems that exist today in the fall utilization of satellite data to improve weather forecasts and we propose specific recommendations to solve them. This discussion can be viewed as an aspect of the general debate on how best to organize the transition from research to operational satellites and how to evaluate the impact of a research instrument on numerical weather predictions. A method for providing this transition is offered by the National Polar-Orbiting Operational Environmental Satellite System (NPOESS) Preparatory Project (NPP). This mission will bridge the time between the present NOAA and Department of Defense (DOD) polar orbiting missions and the initiation of the converged NPOESS series and will evaluate some of the Earth Observing System (EOS) instruments as appropriate for operational missions. Thus, this mission can be viewed as an effort to meet the operational requirements of NOAA and DOD and the research requirements of NASA. More generally, however, it can be said that the process of going from the conception of new, more advanced instruments to their operational implementation and full utilization by the weather forecast communities is not optimal. Instruments developed for research purposes may have insufficient funding to explore their potential operational capabilities. Furthermore, instrument development programs designed for operational satellites typically have insufficient funding for assimilation algorithms needed to transform the satellite observations into data that can be used by sophisticated global weather forecast models. As a result, years often go by before satellite data are efficiently used for operational forecasts. NASA and NOAA each have unique expertise in the design of satellite instruments, their use for basic and applied research and their utilization in weather and climate research. At a time of limited resources, the two agencies must combine their efforts to work toward common goals of full utilization of satellite data. This is a challenge that requires the assimilation of myriad new data into increasingly sophisticated numerical forecast models that run on increasingly sophisticated computer systems. In section II, we briefly outline the impact of satellite data on the quality of the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) forecasts. In section III, we describe the present status of the utilization of satellite data in NCEP models and the challenges that lie ahead. In section IV, we propose solutions whose goals are summarized in section V.

Einaudi, Franco↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Comparison of Model- and Satellite-Derived Aerosol Optical Depth and Reflectivity

The determination of an accurate quantitative understanding of the role of tropospheric aerosols in the earth's radiation budget is extremely important because forcing by anthropogenic aerosols presently represents one of the most uncertain aspects of climate models. Here the authors present a systematic comparison of three different analyses of satellite-retrieved aerosol optical depth based on the Advanced Very High Resolution Radiometer (AVHRR)- measured radiances with optical depths derived from six different models. Also compared are the model-derived clear-sky reflected shortwave radiation with satellite-measured reflectivities derived from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE) satellite. The three different satellite-derived optical depths differ by between -0.10 and 0.07 optical depth units in comparison to the average of the three analyses depending on latitude and month, but the general features of the retrievals are similar. The models differ by between -0.09 and +0.16 optical depth units from the average of the models. Differences between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses range over -0.11 to +0.05 optical depth units. These differences are significant since the annual average clear-sky radiative forcing associated with the difference between the average of the models and the average of the satellite analyses ranges between -3.9 and 0.7 W m(exp -2) depending on latitude and is -1.7 W m (exp -2) on a global average annual basis. Variations in the source strengths of dimethylsulfide (DMS)-derived aerosols and sea salt aerosols can explain differences between the models, and between the models and satellite retrievals of up to 0.2 optical depth units. The comparison of model-generated reflected shortwave radiation and ERBE-measured shortwave radiation is similar in character as a function of latitude to the analysis of modeled and satellite-retrieved optical depths, but the differences between the modeled clear-sky reflected flux and the ERBE clear-sky reflected flux is generally larger than that inferred from the difference between the models and the AVHRR optical depths, especially at high latitudes. The difference between the mean of the models and the ERBE-analyzed clear-sky flux is 1.6 W m(exp -2). The overall comparison indicates that the model-generated aerosol optical depth is systematically lower than that inferred from measurements between the latitudes of 10 and 30 deg S. It is not likely that the shortfall is due to small values of the sea salt optical depth because increases in this component would create modeled optical depths that are larger than those from satellites in the region north of 30 deg N and near 50 deg S. Instead, the source strengths for DMS and biomass aerosols in the models may be too low. Firm conclusions, however, will require better retrieval procedures for the satellites, including better cloud screening procedures, further improvement of the model's treatment of aerosol transport and removal, and a better determination of aerosol source strengths.

Penner, Joyce E.↗