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DOE OSTI2023

Scenarios for Future Energy Systems

Energy systems in the U.S. and globally have continuously changed and expanded over the past 200 years, from animal and biomass based energy to electricity and petroleum for heat, light, transportation, and industries of all kinds. The most recent two decades have experienced a significant increase in the use of natural gas, solar, and wind energy, as well as energy efficiency, due to both technology breakthroughs and public policy. With history as a guide, we can expect on-going transformation of our energy system in future decades, including increased electrification and advanced energy technologies, ideally helping meet societal goals of reducing pollution, improving quality of human life, and preserving ecosystems. Scenario modeling is an important tool for planning energy system transformations toward specific goals - such as net-zero greenhouse gas emissions, 100% renewable energy, or energy security - particularly when there are multiple options, conflicting objectives, and significant unknowns about a path forward. This presentation will review the history of energy transitions and the future policy and societal objectives on energy. Then it will summarize multiple scenario studies of future energy systems, with a focus on "100% studies" and the challenges to meeting those objectives. It will also outline of a few of the technologies being researched now that could advance the ongoing energy transition.

ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY,SOLAR ENERGY,↗

DOE OSTI2012

Comparison of JSFR design with EDF requirements for future SFR

A comparison of Japan sodium-cooled fast reactor (JSFR) design with future French SFR concept has been done based on the requirement of EDF, the investor-operator of future French SFR, and the French safety baseline, under the framework of EDF-JAEA bilateral agreement of research and development cooperation on future SFR. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2013

Oak Ridge Cleanup Vision: Moving to the Future by Cleaning Up the Past - 13291

The Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management (EM) strives to be the leader in the Department of Energy's (DOE's) EM Complex regarding successful and safe project execution and stakeholder interactions that yield positive results. EM's goal has been to become 'Investment Worthy' and, in order to accomplish that important objective, has also had to improve communications both within and outside of the Department. One of our most important missions is to assist the Department in achieving the sustainability goals set forth in Executive Order 13514. In this regard, EM's primary role is to return land to beneficial use and reduce energy impacts and maintenance costs by demolishing unneeded and deteriorating structures and remediating environmental contamination. Recent accomplishments toward meeting these goals include significant progress in the decontamination and demolition of the country's largest facility, the former K-25 Gaseous Diffusion Building, constructed in 1942 to enrich uranium to help end World War II; the disposition of the first phase of Uranium-233 material from the Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) which involved the transfer of Zero Power Reactor Plates to the National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA); and a host of other project successes associated with transuranic (TRU) waste processing, hot cell decontamination and demolition, remediation of highly contaminated soils and burial grounds, and removal of mercury from storm sewers and surface waters. With regard to successful stakeholder interactions, recent accomplishments include a new method for collaboration that has renewed EM's working relationship with the regulators, and success in completing an extensive consultation process with over a dozen parties on the historic preservation of the former Oak Ridge Gaseous Diffusion Plant, which is now called the East Tennessee Technology Park (ETTP). Regarding improved communications, EM has successfully revised Program priorities and has received buy-in from the leadership in Headquarters, the regulators, and the community. Issues EM was facing in 2009 are presented. Resulting lessons learned and subsequent changes that the Office has gone through in the past several years in order to improve performance in the safe execution of work, relationships with external stakeholders, and communications both internally and externally are discussed. Results of these efforts are provided as a summary of Program accomplishments, including a strong focus on the future. EM's motto, Moving to the Future by Cleaning up the Past, will be demonstrated through the Program's mission, which includes protecting the region's health and environment; ensuring the continuation of ongoing vital missions being conducted by DOE on the Oak Ridge Reservation; and making clean land available for future use at all three sites, with a near-term focus on Re-industrialization of ETTP. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2012

Nuclear Fuel Cycle Technologies: Current Challenges and Future Plans - 12558

The mission of the Office of Nuclear Energy's Fuel Cycle Technologies office (FCT program) is to provide options for possible future changes in national nuclear energy programs. While the recent draft report of the Blue Ribbon Commission on America's Nuclear Future stressed the need for organization changes, interim waste storage and the establishment of a permanent repository for nuclear waste management, it also recognized the potential value of alternate fuel cycles and recommended continued research and development in that area. With constrained budgets and great expectations, the current challenges are significant. The FCT program now performs R and D covering the entire fuel cycle. This broad R and D scope is a result of the assignment of new research and development (R and D) responsibilities to the Office of Nuclear Energy (NE), as well as reorganization within NE. This scope includes uranium extraction from seawater and uranium enrichment R and D, used nuclear fuel recycling technology, advanced fuel development, and a fresh look at a range of disposal geologies. Additionally, the FCT program performs the necessary systems analysis and screening of fuel cycle alternatives that will identify the most promising approaches and areas of technology gaps. Finally, the FCT program is responsible for a focused effort to consider features of fuel cycle technology in a way that promotes nonproliferation and security, such as Safeguards and Security by Design, and advanced monitoring and predictive modeling capabilities. This paper and presentation will provide an overview of the FCT program R and D scope and discuss plans to analyze fuel cycle options and support identified R and D priorities into the future. The FCT program is making progress in implanting a science based, engineering driven research and development program that is evaluating options for a sustainable fuel cycle in the U.S. Responding to the BRC recommendations, any resulting legislative changes, and meeting the needs of the commercial nuclear industry (including developing and evaluating fuel concepts that may enhance accident tolerance in light water reactors while possibly improving fuel performance) are program priorities. Continuing to build partnerships and collaborations with industry, universities, international organizations, and other DOE programs are essential to addressing the challenges facing the FCT program. (authors)

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2017

Solving Complex Radioactive Decay Chains for Future Assessment and Cleanup Decisions - 17046

In support of U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's on-line calculators for risk and dose assessment, a decay chain tool was developed to address the need to understand how radionuclide activity changes with time as the activity measured in the past will be different from current and future levels. When a radionuclide decays, its activity decreases exponentially as a function of time transforming into a different atom - a decay product. The atoms keep transforming to new decay products until they reach a stable state and are no longer radioactive. The series of decay products created to reach this balance is called the decay chain. For radionuclide chains, the daughter products can have significant implications in dosimetry and remediation. Thus, risk assessors evaluating sites with radioactive contamination need to plan for future progeny ingrowth, in addition to sampled radionuclides. These are important considerations for risk quantification during the characterization and cleanup plans, particularly when sampling may have occurred years before the remediation cleanup work begins. If a radionuclide half-life and current activity are known, then hand-calculating the future activity is straightforward. However, calculating the ingrowth of progeny quickly becomes cumbersome for longer chains such as the Thorium-232 decay series. For the more complex chains where many daughters are formed, possibly with multiple branches, this calculation involves solving a complex set of simultaneous differential equations known as the Bateman Equation. The Decay Chain Activity Projection Tool calculates the activity of radionuclides and their progeny as a function of time. This tool currently uses a combination of Perl, JavaScript, Plot.ly, and jQuery to automatically construct the radionuclide decay chains, solve the resulting Bateman Equation, and provide the user with tabular solution output and plots. Additional software may be used as development advances. The risk assessor can then use the data for exposure assessment and cleanup decisions without further costly sampling. The benefits of providing this calculator are to prevent overestimation of risk due to decay of the parent isotope and to avoid underestimation of risk due to ingrowth of progeny more toxic than the parent. Graphs are provided to show the simultaneous decay rates and ingrowth, as well as tabular output at time-point T and all the decay half-life intervals. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Ethical Considerations in Determining the Societal Investment in Warning Future Generations about Latent Long-term Risks from Radioactive Waste Disposal Facilities - 17058

Writers and philosophers have long romanticized and pondered the great challenge of communicating with future generations. The only way that man can travel through time. Never has this notion been more studied and debated than in the nuclear waste disposal arena. Regulatory requirements in the United States and internationally, require that there be some form of notification of future generations in place once a deep geologic nuclear waste repository has been closed. It is considered a generational responsibility. Since the difficulty of this task is so daunting, it has been assumed that the monetary cost to accomplish this millennia-spanning message-in-a-bottle must also be extreme. This paper will discuss both the ethical and equitable implications across generations, as they pertain to the reality of future inadvertent intrusion scenarios and the associated cost of communicating through time to prevent them. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

URS/WTP's Future Leader Program and AECOM's Early Career Professional Technology Exchange - 17239

URS Energy and Construction, Inc. (URS), a subsidiary of AECOM, is the Bechtel National, Inc. (BNI) teaming subcontractor on the Hanford Tank Waste Treatment and Immobilization Plant (WTP) Project. Recently, the WTP Project has begun a transition toward facility turnover and commissioning. With that transition came the hiring of staff for the startup and commissioning workforce. With many of these individuals being Early Career Professionals (ECPs), URS recognized a need to create and implement a workforce development program to give these professionals the skills to thrive in a professional environment and provide a sense of community to improve talent retention. The result of this recognition of need was the creation of URS/WTP Future Leaders. This paper will share the successes and lessons learned related to founding the URS/WTP Future Leaders. This includes establishing programs such as the Continuous Learning Workshops, Rotational Program, and implementing a mentor program. In addition, establishing a budget and obtaining support from Human Resources will be discussed. By March 2017, the ECP program will have been in effect for approximately two years. As a separate effort, many of AECOM's major waste remediation contractors have started having Early Career Professional Technology Exchanges (ECP TE) in an effort to create collaboration between sites and to establish industry contacts that will continue to be a resource for years to come. Washington River Protection Solutions, LLC; URS/WTP; Savannah River Remediation, LLC; and Nuclear Waste Partnership, LLC have conducted ECP TE, with each site hosting an event. For these events, each participant prepares a presentation and answers questions on the presentation topic. This allows ECPs to practice presentation skills, develop skills in answering questions from their peers and management, and be the expert in the room on a particular topic. Tours of the onsite facilities also are given as a way for ECPs to gain a broader understanding of the waste remediation industry and the challenges that other sites are facing. Accomplishments, lessons learned, and future plans for ECP TE will be discussed. The ECP TE events allow AECOM, as the parent company, to provide a unique learning opportunity to the next generation of engineers within the DOE nuclear field and to ensure the safe operations of these nuclear sites for years to come. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2017

Towards a Remote Handling Toolkit for Fusion: Lessons Learnt and Future Challenges - 17360

It is increasingly recognised within the fusion research community that the next generation of remote maintenance solutions will be a 'device defining driver' for a future fusion power plant. The unique Remote Handling Systems that operates at JET, EUROfusion's research reactor that is operated by the UKAEA at Culham, Oxfordshire, remains the archetype for future designs. At ITER, the international fusion research experiment being constructed in the South of France, many $100's millions will be invested in supplying and then operating remote handling solutions. This paper will provide a brief history of the JET Remote Handling System in recent campaigns and will present initial results of the ITER remote operated cutting and welding trials. Finally, the paper will comment on reasons for establishing RACE, the UKAEA's centre for Remote Applications in Challenging Environments and the task of integrating new robotics including autonomous vehicles, snake-like manipulators and autonomous remote maintenance systems into the design of a future fusion reactor. (authors)

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2016

Ethical Considerations for Developing Repository Warning Messages to the Future - 16152

One topic being addressed internationally through the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development Nuclear Energy Agency initiative on the Preservation of Records, Knowledge and Memory is the nature of messages to be sent into the distant future, and the means whereby to send them. The U.S. Department of Energy Carlsbad Field Office is the owner of a mined geologic repository, the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant. By regulation, this office must implement, prior to the repository being closed, 'passive institutional controls' that last as long as practicable. In the case of this specific repository, all the waste is government generated (defense programs) hence all funding is public money. As such, the preliminary vision for this message conveyance is a somewhat elaborate system that includes records rooms, monoliths, and inscriptions in seven different languages. As the time for repository closure approaches, this aspect of the repository investment will incur a considerable portion of the closure funds appropriated by the U.S. Congress. An ethical question that arises concerns the effects of the public investment to be made on the generations paying for it, and the risk-avoidance benefit to be expected for the generations going into the far future. This is an especially pressing question where taxpayer (public) money is involved, although it does not make sense to waste money collected from any source. This paper explores the ethical dimensions of creating a substantial and sophisticated system of warnings that communicates into the future and concludes that the repository warning system needs to be practicable from a technical point of view, reasonable from an investment point of view, and ethical from an inter-generational equity point of view. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2019

Ensuring Future Qualified Employees through Workforce Development Initiatives - 19183

UCOR, an AECOM-led partnership with Jacobs, manages the cleanup of the 2,200-acre East Tennessee Technology Park for its client, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), in Oak Ridge, Tennessee. The site was contaminated with radioactive, hazardous and industrial wastes generated by more than 40 years of national defense and energy missions. While successfully conducting its cleanup responsibilities, DoE's Oak Ridge Office of Environmental Management and UCOR are strongly committed to developing the current and future workforce through the application of multiple partnering opportunities and the use of innovative learning techniques that are adaptive to different generations of learners. The goal is to maintain a highly-skilled workforce for cleanup activities while establishing bridges for the development and placement of our future workforce. The training and professional development of the UCOR workforce is provided by multiple sources, including UCOR in-house training, trade unions, regional higher educational institutions and regional technical schools. In concert with these partners, UCOR is working to maintain and expand the existing talent base, enhance safety, improve processes, and resolve challenges through aggressive and well-coordinated initiatives designed to develop the future workforce. While UCOR's efforts are primarily focused on the cleanup of DOE facilities, its workforce development programs can also benefit the commercial nuclear power industry - both in ongoing plant operations and in decommissioning aging plants as they come to the end of their useful life. UCOR's Workforce Development Program is built on four distinct pillars: - Higher Education; - Community Colleges; - Apprenticeship Readiness Program; - K-12 STEM Program. (authors)

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2019

Panel Session 14: US DOE WIPP - Future Plans for the Utilization of a National Asset

This panel focused on the next phase of restoring the Waste Isolation Pilot Plant (WIPP: located in Carlsbad, New Mexico, USA) to full disposal operations. The US DOE Carlsbad Field Office (CBFO) is funded for two Capital Asset Projects that will facilitate the restoration of WIPP to full capability and allow for future repository space planning. The panel will include updates on the capital projects, infrastructure improvements to extend WIPP's operational life, regulatory actions in support of capital projects, and improvements in new processes to implement WAC and DSA enhancements. This panel is filled by CBFO and WIPP contractor leaders to provide the big picture leading to WIPP's future. Presentations proposed include: 1 - 2018 WIPP Year in Review (Bruce Covert, Nuclear Waste Partnership, LLC (USA)); 2 - TRU Waste Shipments and WIPP Operations (Mark Pearcy, Nuclear Waste Partnership, LLC (USA)); 3 - Projects and Activities at WIPP (Ronald Gill, US DOE (USA)); 4 - The Future of WIPP (J.R. Stroble, US DOE (USA), Todd Shrader, US DOE (USA))

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Artificial Intelligence for Event Reconstruction and Higgs Physics at CMS and Future Colliders

This dissertation charts a trajectory in which advances in artificial intelligence (AI) play a central role in pushing the high-energy physics frontier, complementing progress driven by higher collision energies and larger colliders. The discovery potential of the LHC and future colliders relies on accurate reconstruction of increasingly complex particle collision events. In the CMS experiment, this task is performed by the particle-flow (PF) algorithm. This dissertation presents the first implementation of a machine-learning-based particle-flow (MLPF) reconstruction in the CMS detector based on transformer architectures. In simulated top quark--antiquark pair (ttbar) events under LHC Run~3 (2023--2024) conditions, MLPF improves jet energy resolution by 10--20\% compared to standard PF for jets with transverse momentum between 30--100\GeV. Runtime performance is evaluated using simulated multijet events, with a median inference time of 20\unit{ms} per event on an NVIDIA L4 GPU, compa red to approximately 110\unit{ms} for standard PF. The MLPF algorithm is also validated on Run~3 collision data, representing the first data-validated ML-based reconstruction pipeline at any LHC experiment. We then extend MLPF toward future electron--positron colliders and introduce the first full-simulation cross-detector transfer learning workflow for PF reconstruction. The model is pre-trained on simulated events from the Compact Linear Collider detector (CLICdet) and fine-tuned on the CLIC-like detector (CLD) proposed for the Future Circular Collider (FCC). This approach achieves up to a 40\% improvement in jet energy resolution over rule-based reconstruction while reducing the required training dataset size by an order of magnitude, demonstrating the potential of AI to accelerate detector development and optimization. This dissertation also demonstrates how modern AI techniques enhance the sensitivity of LHC physics analyses. A CMS search for highly Lorentz-boosted Higgs bosons decaying to \textrm{W} boson pairs is presented, focusing on the single-lepton final state. A dedicated fine-tuning strategy for \ParT yields an approximately 70\% increase in expected sensitivity relative to the baseline model. The analysis uses proton--proton collision data at a center-of-mass energy of \ensuremath{\sqrt{s}=13\TeV} collected by CMS between 2016 and 2018, corresponding to an integrated luminosity of 138\ensuremath{\ \mathrm{fb}^{-1}}. The expected significance of the search is $1.86\sigma$, with an observed signal strength of $-0.19^{+0.48}_{-0.46}$. Finally, explainable AI techniques are applied to the MLPF and \ParticleNet algorithms using layerwise relevance propagation, showing that both models base their predictions on physically meaningful features consistent with our physics intuition. Together, these results demonstrate how advanced AI methods can enhance reconstruction, analysis sensitivity, and interpretability, shaping the next era of experimental parti cle physics.

Mokhtar, Farouk [UC, San Diego]↗

DOE OSTI2016

A Perspective of Energy Codes and Regulations for the Buildings of the Future

Today’s building energy codes focus on prescriptive requirements for features of buildings that are directly controlled by the design and construction teams and verifiable by municipal inspectors. Although these code requirements have had a significant impact, they fail to influence a large slice of the building energy use pie – including not only miscellaneous plug loads, cooking equipment and commercial/industrial processes, but the maintenance and optimization of the code-mandated systems as well. Currently, code compliance is verified only through the end of construction, and there are no limits or consequences for the actual energy use in an occupied building. In the future, our suite of energy regulations will likely expand to include building efficiency, energy use or carbon emission budgets over their full life cycle. Intelligent building systems, extensive renewable energy, and a transition from fossil fuel to electric heating systems will likely be required to meet ultra-low-energy targets. This paper lays out the authors’ perspectives on how buildings may evolve over the course of the 21st century and the roles that codes and regulations will play in shaping those buildings of the future.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2013

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

Planning initiatives in many regions and communities aim to reduce transportation energy use, decrease emissions, and achieve related environmental benefits by changing land use. This report reviews and summarizes findings from existing literature on the relationship between the built environment and transportation energy use and greenhouse gas emissions, identifying results trends as well as potential future actions. The indirect influence of federal transportation and housing policies, as well as the direct impact of municipal regulation on land use are examined for their effect on transportation patterns and energy use. Special attention is given to the 'four D' factors of density, diversity, design and accessibility. The report concludes that policy-driven changes to the built environment could reduce transportation energy and GHG emissions from less than 1% to as much as 10% by 2050, the equivalent of 16%-18% of present-day urban light-duty-vehicle travel. This is one of a series of reports produced as a result of the Transportation Energy Futures (TEF) project, a Department of Energy-sponsored multi-agency project initiated to pinpoint underexplored strategies for abating GHGs and reducing petroleum dependence related to transportation.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2013

Transportation Energy Futures Series: Effects of the Built Environment on Transportation: Energy Use, Greenhouse Gas Emissions, and Other Factors

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2016

Vision for Future Buildings

In the last 10 years our lives have changed so quickly, and drastically, that it's hard to imagine what the distant future might bring. Because buildings are large, long-term investments, the building sector has been slower to change. It can take more than 100 years for our cities to be renovated or rebuilt using updated methods and technologies. But to get there, we must start to conceptualize what the functions and capabilities of these future buildings could be, today.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Future of Vehicle Grid Integration: Harnessing the Flexibility of EV Charging

This document lays out a shared vision for a beneficial, EV-integrated future where EVs are safely and securely connected, reliably served, and harmonized with the electric grid. It was developed as part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) EVGrid Assist initiative. Stakeholder input was gathered through individual and collective conversations, including eight listening sessions with more than 100 participants representing utilities of different sizes and operating structures, manufacturers of vehicles and chargers, national associations, standards organizations, Tribes, fleet managers, consumer advocates, charging network operators, community-based organizations, utility regulators, consultants, vendors, labor, and environmental justice organizations. This document focuses on the future of electric on-road U.S. transportation, specifically the integration of light-duty vehicles (LDV) and medium- and heavy-duty vehicles (MHDV) and their charging infrastructure with the electric grid. However, many of the insights here may apply to electrifying other transportation modes, as well as other distributed energy resources (DER).

EVGrid Assist initiative, EV-integrated future, el↗

DOE OSTI2024

The Future of Vehicle Grid Integration: Harnessing the Flexibility of EV Charging

EVGrid Assist initiative, EV-integrated future, el↗