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At least 721 records · Page 40

Flux Eruption Events Drive Angular Momentum Transport in Magnetically Arrested Accretion Flows

We evolve two high-resolution general relativistic magnetohydrodynamic simulations of advection-dominated accretion flows around nonspinning black holes (BHs), each over a duration ~3 × 10 5 GM BH /c 3 . One model captures the evolution of a weakly magnetized (SANE) disk and the other that of a magnetically arrested disk (MAD). Magnetic flux eruptions in the MAD model push out gas from the disk and launch strong winds with outflow efficiencies at times reaching 10% of the incoming accretion power. Despite the substantial power in these winds, average mass outflow rates remain low out to a radius ~100GM BH /c 2 , only reaching ~60%–80% of the horizon accretion rate. The average outward angular momentum transport is primarily radial in both modes of accretion, but with a clear distinction: magnetic flux eruption–driven disk winds cause a strong vertical flow of angular momentum in the MAD model, while for the SANE model, the magnetorotational instability (MRI) moves angular momentum mostly equatorially through the disk. Further, we find that the MAD state is highly transitory and nonaxisymmetric, with the accretion mode often changing to a SANE-like state following an eruption before reattaining magnetic flux saturation with time. The Reynolds stress changes directions during such transitions, with the MAD (SANE) state showing an inward (outward) stress, possibly pointing to intermittent MRI-driven accretion in MADs. Pinning down the nature of flux eruptions using next-generation telescopes will be crucial in understanding the flow of mass, magnetic flux, and angular momentum in sub-Eddington accreting BHs like M87* and Sagittarius A*.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Optimizing infrasound observations for sample return capsule re-entry: Insights from OSIRIS-REx and Hayabusa2

The atmospheric entry of meteoroids presents a rare and unpredictable phenomenon, posing challenges for systematic observation and detailed characterization. Such events are nonetheless critical for advancing understanding of acoustic wave propagation, atmospheric structure, and entry dynamics. In contrast, sample return capsules (SRCs) from space missions follow well constrained re-entry trajectories, enabling planned observations of shock wave generation and propagation under controlled conditions. This study compares two SRC atmospheric entries, Hayabusa2 in 2020 and OSIRIS-REx in 2023, to assess how different infrasound array configurations influence shock wave detection and trajectory validation. Hayabusa2’s re-entry was monitored using a distributed network of 28 portable infrasound sensors across seven arrays in Woomera, Australia, permitting three-dimensional reconstruction of the trajectory and analysis of wave characteristics. For OSIRIS-REx, a compact four-sensor array deployed near Eureka Airport provided trajectory confirmation through arrival-time differences and back-azimuth estimates. Spectral and waveform analyses revealed differences in signal properties associated with variations in entry angle and velocity. The results illustrate both the strengths and the limitations of the deployed array configurations. The dense and distributed arrays during Hayabusa2’s re-entry enabled detailed trajectory reconstruction, whereas the compact array at Eureka primarily provided confirmation of signal coherence and back-azimuth consistency. These case studies highlight that even relatively small arrays, if located close to the predicted ground track, can still capture useful information on arrival direction and timing. Such insights provide practical guidance for planning future observational campaigns of SRC returns and other controlled atmospheric entries, and may also inform approaches to opportunistic observations of meteoroid events and other atmospheric acoustic phenomena.

celestial mechanics: orbit determination↗

Spatiotemporal forecasting of the edge localized modes in tokamak plasmas using neural networks

Artificial intelligence techniques have been increasingly adopted by the plasma and fusion science to address problems like plasma reconstruction, surrogate modeling, and tokamak/stellarator optimization. A key focus in sustained fusion research is the prediction and mitigation of edge-localized-modes (ELMs), instabilities that occur in short, periodic bursts and can cause erosion to the tokamak vessel wall. Recent research has demonstrated the power of neural networks in approximating continuous functions. In this work, we build spatiotemporal forecasting models that can predict the onset of ELMs and their evolution at early stages. We leverage recent advances in generative modeling, sequence-to-sequence modeling, and Fourier neural operators to propose architectures and training strategies that can learn to forecast short to long term dynamics of the noisy signals due to ELMs. We benchmark the developed model against a state-of-the-art foundation model using the beam emission spectroscopy (BES) data that captures the plasma fluctuations due to ELMs over a 8 x 8 spatial grid. Our models demonstrate high accuracy, outperforming the baselines, in predicting the evolution of BES signals during ELM events. Furthermore, the developed models exhibit high accuracy in predicting the rapid rise and relaxation of the signals due to ELMs within 30–80 µs.

edge localized modes↗

Convection–Kelvin Wave Coupling in a Global Convection-Permitting Model

A convectively coupled equatorial Kelvin wave (CCKW) was observed over the equatorial Indian Ocean in early November 2011 during the DYNAMO field campaign. This study examines the structure of the CCKW event using two simulations made using the MPAS model: one with 3-km grid spacing without convective parameterization and another with a 15-km grid and parameterized convection. Both simulations qualitatively capture the observed structure of the CCKW, including its vertical tilt and progression of cloud/precipitation structures. The two simulations, however, differ substantially in the amplitude of the CCKW-associated precipitation. While the 3-km run realistically captures the observed modulation of precipitation by the CCKW, the 15-km simulation severely underestimates its magnitude. To understand the difference between the two MPAS simulations regarding wave–convection coupling within the CCKW, the relationship of precipitation with convective inhibition, saturation fraction, and surface turbulent fluxes is investigated. Results show that the 15-km simulation underestimates the magnitude of the CCKW precipitation peak in association with its unrealistically linear relationship between moisture and precipitation. Precipitation, both in observations and the 3-km run, is predominantly controlled by saturation fraction and this relationship is exponential. In contrast, the parameterized convection in the 15-km run is overly sensitive to convective inhibition and not sensitive enough to environmental moisture. The implications of these results on CCKW theories are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DetSuM: Detector Surrogate Model for LArTPC

In large neutrino experiments such as the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE), estimating detector response uncertainties typically requires simulation samples that consume substantial computing resources and time. To mitigate this challenge, we present DetSuM, an uncertainty-aware surrogate model designed to capture the detector response variations with reduced computing load compared to full simulations. This poster describes the construction and evaluation of DetSuM using simulation and reconstruction datasets in a rare-event search at DUNE. We assess DetSuM's ability to predict key detector-response variations and their associated uncertainties, discuss current limitations, and outline improvements to extend its validity in systematics studies of DUNE physics.

Li, Aobo [UC, San Diego]↗

On the Origin of Triton and Pluto

Lyttleton's (1936) hypothesis that Triton and Pluto originated as adjacent prograde satellites of Neptune is evaluated, and it is shown that with the presently accepted masses of Triton and Pluto-Charon, the momentum and energy exchange required to sell Triton on a retrograde orbit is impossible. The Pluto-Charon system could not have acquired its present angular momentum state during an ejection event unless a physical collision was involved, which is quite unlikely. The simplest hypothesis is that Triton and Pluto are independent representatives of large outer solar system planetesimals. Triton is simply captured, with spectacular consequences that include runaway melting of interior ices and release to the surface of clathrated CH4, CO, and N2. Condensed remnants of this protoatmosphere could account for features in Triton's unique spectrum.

Mckinnon, W. B.↗

On the origin of Triton and Pluto

Lyttleton's (1936) hypothesis that Triton and Pluto originated as adjacent prograde satellites of Neptune is evaluated, and it is shown that with the presently accepted masses of Triton and Pluto-Charon, the momentum and energy exchange required to set Triton on a retrograde orbit is impossible. The Pluto-Charon system could not have acquired its present angular momentum state during an ejection event unless a physical collision was involved, which is quite unlikely. The simplest hypothesis is that Triton and Pluto are independent representatives of large outer solar system planetesimals. Triton is simply captured, with spectacular consequences that include runaway melting of interior ices and release to the surface of clathrated CH4, CO, and N2. Condensed remnants of this protoatmosphere could account for features in Triton's unique spectrum.

Mckinnon, W. B.↗

A Wrf-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNO(x) Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were added to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Cloud physics↗

A WRF-Chem Flash Rate Parameterization Scheme and LNOx Analysis of the 29-30 May 2012 Convective Event in Oklahoma During DC3

The Deep Convective Clouds and Chemistry (DC3) field campaign in 2012 provided a plethora of aircraft and ground-based observations (e.g., trace gases, lightning and radar) to study deep convective storms, their convective transport of trace gases, and associated lightning occurrence and production of nitrogen oxides (NOx). Based on the measurements taken of the 29-30 May 2012 Oklahoma thunderstorm, an analysis against a Weather Research and Forecasting Chemistry (WRF-Chem) model simulation of the same event at 3-km horizontal resolution was performed. One of the main objectives was to include various flash rate parameterization schemes (FRPSs) in the model and identify which scheme(s) best captured the flash rates observed by the National Lightning Detection Network (NLDN) and Oklahoma Lightning Mapping Array (LMA). The comparison indicates how well the schemes predicted the timing, location, and number of lightning flashes. The FRPSs implemented in the model were based on the simulated thunderstorms physical features, such as maximum vertical velocity, cloud top height, and updraft volume. Adjustment factors were applied to each FRPS to best capture the observed flash trend and a sensitivity study was performed to compare the range in model-simulated lightning-generated nitrogen oxides (LNOx) generated by each FRPS over the storms lifetime. Based on the best FRPS, model-simulated LNOx was compared against aircraft measured NOx. The trace gas analysis, along with the increased detail in the model specification of the vertical distribution of lightning flashes as suggested by the LMA data, provide guidance in determining the scenario of NO production per intracloud and cloud-to-ground flash that best matches the NOx mixing ratios observed by the aircraft.

Atmospheric chemistry↗

Monitoring O3 and Aerosols with the NASA LaRC Mobile Ozone Lidar System

The NASA's Langley Mobile Ozone Lidar (LMOL) system routinely measures tropospheric ozone and aerosol profiles, and is part of the Tropospheric Lidar Network (TOLNet). Recent upgrades to the system include a new pump laser that has tripled the transmission output power extending measurements up to 8 km in altitude during the day. In addition, software and algorithm developments have improved data output quality and enabled a real-time ozone display capability. In 2016, a number of ozone features were captured by LMOL, including the dynamics of an early-season ozone exceedance that impacted the Hampton Roads region. In this presentation, we will review current LMOL capabilities, recent air quality events observed by the system, and show a comparison of aerosol retrieval through the UV channel and the green line channel.

Ganoe, Rene↗

Mission Design Analysis for the Martian Moon Phobos: Close Flybys, Missed Thrusts, and Other In-Flight Entertainment

A robotic mission to the Martian moons Phobos and Deimos would offer a wealth of scientific information and serve as a useful precursor to potential human missions. In this paper, we investigate a prospective mission enabled by solar electric propulsion that would explore Phobos via a series of flybys followed by capture into orbit around the moon. Of particular interest are low-cost options for capture and walkdown to the target science orbits aided by multi-body effects due to the mutual gravitational interaction of Phobos and Mars. We also consider contingency operations in the event of missed thrust or maneuver execution errors.

SEP↗

Linking classical PRA models to a dynamic PRA

Here, this paper presents a series of methods designed to incorporate classical Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) models such as Event Trees (ETs) and Fault Trees (FTs) into dynamic PRA. In contrast to classical PRA, dynamic PRA couples stochastic methods with system simulators to determine the risks associated with complex systems such as nuclear power plants. Compared with classical PRA methods, they can evaluate with higher resolution the safety impact of timing and sequencing of events on the progression of the accident. As part of a dynamic PRA analysis, it is not uncommon that parts of the system to be analyzed might not require a computationally expensive simulation model. These parts could be in fact modeled by employing classical PRA models (e.g., a FT). Here, we present a set of methods and tools that can be used to link the most common classical PRA models (ETs, FTs, reliability block diagrams and Markov models) to simulation codes such as RELAP5-3D: creating a “hybrid PRA.” In order to show the potential of such an hybrid PRA we employ this method to verify ET modeling assumptions (e.g., success criteria) using a large break loss of coolant accident initiating event as a test case. In this respect, we link a set of FTs from the original PRA to the RELAP5-3D code and perform a hybrid PRA. The FTs are employed to model the control logic of several safety systems and to propagate component failures throughout the system. Provided the generated dynamic PRA data, we show how conservative assumptions in the original PRA can be identified and how such original PRA can be modified by updating success criteria captured by the set of RELAP5-3D simulation runs.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Science Goal Driven Observing: A Step Towards Maximizing Science Returns and Spacecraft Autonomy

In the coming decade, the drive to increase the scientific returns on capital investment and to reduce costs will force automation to be implemented in many of the scientific tasks that have traditionally been manually overseen. Thus, spacecraft autonomy will become an even greater part of mission operations. While recent missions have made great strides in the ability to autonomously monitor and react to changing health and physical status of spacecraft, little progress has been made in responding quickly to science driven events. The new generation of space-based telescopes/observatories will see deeper, with greater clarity, and they will generate data at an unprecedented rate. Yet, while onboard data processing and storage capability will increase rapidly, bandwidth for downloading data will not increase as fast and can become a significant bottleneck and cost of a science program. For observations of inherently variable targets and targets of opportunity, the ability to recognize early if an observation will not meet the science goals of variability or minimum brightness, and react accordingly, can have a major positive impact on the overall scientific returns of an observatory and on its operational costs. If the observatory can reprioritize the schedule to focus on alternate targets, discard uninteresting observations prior to downloading, or download them at a reduced resolution its overall efficiency will be dramatically increased. We are investigating and developing tools for a science goal monitoring (SGM) system. The SGM will have an interface to help capture higher-level science goals from scientists and translate them into a flexible observing strategy that SGM can execute and monitor. SGM will then monitor the incoming data stream and interface with data processing systems to recognize significant events. When an event occurs, the system will use the science goals given it to reprioritize observations, and react appropriately and/or communicate with ground systems - both human and machine - for confirmation and/or further high priority analyses.

Koratkar, Anuradha↗

Microcanonical Kinetics of Water-Mediated Proton Transfer in 4ABAH + ·(H 2 O) n = 4–6 Clusters (ABA = Aminobenzoic Acid): A Model System for Size-Dependent Relaxation to Ergodic Behavior

Here, we leverage the unique properties of the 4ABAH + · (H 2 O) n clusters (ABA = 4-aminobenzoic acid, n = 4−6) to quantitatively address how a finite, isolated system evolves into an ergodic condition starting from localized arrangements in configuration space. This system adopts two distinct structural isomers in which water molecules cluster around the cationic centers of its two protomers with widely separated positive charge centers. These isomers arise from excess proton attachment to either the acid (O) or amino (N) group on opposite sides of the benzene ring. Both forms are captured and kinetically trapped using cryogenic ion methods and then selectively vibrationally excited through their mutually exclusive IR bands involving NH and OH stretching fundamentals. Because the IR excitation lies below the water binding energy, the system can evolve to explore slow, rare events that lead to the interconversion between the two isomers. The rates of these intracluster reactions are determined by using a pump−probe scheme involving ∼5 ns IR pump and UV probe lasers. The rates occur on the microsecond time scale, leading to steady state populations of the isomers, thus revealing the cluster size-dependent fractionation between the two species at microcanonical equilibrium. The steady state distributions are correlated with the expected trend in the cluster size-dependent reaction energetics, which are in turn consistent with changes in the relative densities of states of the two species. These results thus provide an unusually clear example in which complex, protic-solvent-mediated chemical transformations are captured within a finite system at a precisely determined internal energy.

Rana, Abhijit [Yale Univ., New Haven, CT (United S↗

Science Goal Driven Observing: A Step Towards Maximizing Science Returns and Spacecraft Autonomy

While recent missions have made great strides in the ability to autonomously monitor and react to changing health and physical status of spacecraft, little progress has been made in responding quickly to science driven events. Also, the new generation of space-based telescopes will generate data at an unprecedented rate. Yet, while on-board data processing and storage capability will increase rapidly, bandwidth for downloading data will not increase as fast and can become a significant cost of a science program. For observations of inherently variable targets and targets of opportunity, the ability to recognize early if an observation will not meet the science goals, and react accordingly, can have a major positive impact on the overall scientific returns of an observatory and on its operational costs. If the observatory can reprioritize the schedule to focus on alternate targets, discard uninteresting observations prior to downloading, or download them at a reduced resolution its overall efficiency will be dramatically increased. We are investigating and developing tools for a science goal monitoring (SGM) system. The SGM will have an interface to help capture higher-level science goals from the scientists and translate them into a flexible observing strategy that SGM can execute and monitor. SGM will then monitor the incoming data stream and interface with data processing systems to recognize significant events. When an event occurs, the system will use the science goals given it to reprioritize observations, and react appropriately and/or communicate with ground systems - both human and machine - for confirmation and/or further high priority analyses.

Jones, Jeremy↗

Volume IV. The DUNE far detector single-phase technology

The preponderance of matter over antimatter in the early universe, the dynamics of the supernovae that produced the heavy elements necessary for life, and whether protons eventually decay -- these mysteries at the forefront of particle physics and astrophysics are key to understanding the early evolution of our universe, its current state, and its eventual fate. DUNE is an international world-class experiment dedicated to addressing these questions as it searches for leptonic charge-parity symmetry violation, stands ready to capture supernova neutrino bursts, and seeks to observe nucleon decay as a signature of a grand unified theory underlying the standard model. Central to achieving DUNE's physics program is a far detector that combines the many tens-of-kiloton fiducial mass necessary for rare event searches with sub-centimeter spatial resolution in its ability to image those events, allowing identification of the physics signatures among the numerous backgrounds. In the single-phase liquid argon time-projection chamber (LArTPC) technology, ionization charges drift horizontally in the liquid argon under the influence of an electric field towards a vertical anode, where they are read out with fine granularity. A photon detection system supplements the TPC, directly enhancing physics capabilities for all three DUNE physics drivers and opening up prospects for further physics explorations. The DUNE far detector technical design report (TDR) describes the DUNE physics program and the technical designs of the single- and dual-phase DUNE liquid argon TPC far detector modules. Volume IV presents an overview of the basic operating principles of a single-phase LArTPC, followed by a description of the DUNE implementation. Each of the subsystems is described in detail, connecting the high-level design requirements and decisions to the overriding physics goals of DUNE.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

A hydrogeophysical framework to assess infiltration during a simulated ecosystem-scale flooding experiment

This study presents a framework to quantify changes in soil saturation in response to flooding caused by extreme hydrologic perturbation on coastal ecosystems at the interfaces and transition between terrestrial and aquatic systems. Subsurface heterogeneity limits the use of in situ measurements to quantify subsurface flow during flooding due to the spatial discontinuity in the measured data. While geophysical methods, including time-lapse electrical resistivity imaging (ERI), are increasingly used to monitor soil hydrological processes, their abilities to parameterize flow models have been underutilized. This study combines background ERI, ground penetrating radar (GPR), time-lapse ERI, soil characterization, and a numerical flow model developed using an Advanced Terrestrial Simulator (ATS) code to quantify the infiltration pathway and describe the hydrological dynamics during a simulated flooding experiment. We assessed the use of two conceptual models developed using [1] ERI and GPR data that described the stratigraphic distribution, and time-lapse ERI that mapped permeability contrast, and [2] information from a national soil database for capturing changes in saturation. Combining the ERI and GPR results with soil core data revealed the stratigraphic heterogeneity at the site with a silty clay layer from 1 to 2 m between an overlying loamy topsoil and an underlying saturated silty sand. This silty clay layer could restrict deep infiltration. The time-lapse ERI showed up to a 35% decrease in resistivity, which correlated with soil moisture data (R 2 value > 0.53) and revealed preferential infiltration zones used to inform the flow model. Numerical simulation results from both the geophysics- and soil database-informed models quantified changes in soil saturation with calculated soil moistures that agreed with field data. The geophysics-informed model captured more of the system’s variability, reflective of shallow subsurface heterogeneities. The framework presented will serve as a precursor for a robust ecohydrological model that can describe the impacts of extreme events induced by climate change on coastal ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Northern Hemisphere Snow Drought in Earth System Model Simulations and ERA5‐Land Data in 1980–2014

Abstract Low snow levels over the past few decades and predictions of a low‐to‐no snow future have spurred research into snow droughts, which pose a threat to water security and management. Systematic data‐model comparisons of snow drought have been lacking, hindering our understanding of the drivers of snow drought in the past. To address this gap, we analyzed snow drought events using standardized snow water equivalent index derived from monthly results of four numerical experiments using the E3SM Land Model (ELM) and ERA5‐Land data during the period of 1980–2014. Additionally, we compared snow drought duration calculated from models with those from the ERA5‐Land data during selected El Niño‐Southern Oscillation (ENSO) years. The numerical experiments were conducted with ELM driven by two prescribed atmospheric forcings, and with the coupled land‐atmosphere configuration of E3SM with and without plant hydraulics scheme feedback. Analysis reveals that 20%–30% of snow droughts occur due to factors other than above‐normal temperature and low snowfall, such as low soil moisture, warm soil temperature, and low relative humidity, etc., especially in high latitudes (50° North). Furthermore, our study highlights the exacerbating effect of ENSO events on snow drought conditions in various regions, despite some discrepancies between model and ERA5‐Land results. We also identified limitations of the coupled land‐atmosphere models in our current configuration in capturing the spatial patterns of snow droughts. This study underscores the challenge of predicting and mitigating snow drought and the need for a comprehensive understanding of the factors contributing to snow drought.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗