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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
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Assessing concurrent effects of climate change on hydropower supply, electricity demand, and greenhouse gas emissions in the Upper Yangtze River Basin of China
Hydropower importantly provides flexible low-carbon electricity, however, climate change will affect the hydropower system through altering hydrologic regimes while also affecting electricity demands for heating and cooling that hydropower resources serve. This study assesses the effect of climate change on hydropower and electricity demand in the Upper Yangtze River Basin (UYRB) in China on the regional net electric load and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is accomplished by using climate projections from five global climate models (GCMs) to simultaneously force (1) a physically-based hydrological model and a statistically-based hydropower model to estimate the future generating capacity of 21 large hydropower plants in the UYRB and (2) an empirical electricity demand model accounting for socioeconomic and climatic factors. Under climate change, the projected hydropower generation in the UYRB tends to increase in the 21st century but is far less than the increase in electricity demand, increasing the gap between demand and supply. Future increases in overall electricity demand are driven by GDP growth, but climate change will alter the distribution of the seasonal electricity demand. Climate warming decreases electricity demand for heating in winter and increases electricity demand for cooling in summer, but ultimately increases demand. Meanwhile, there is an increasing mismatch between electricity demand and hydropower supply associated with inter- and intra-annual variations, owing to the temporal climate change and increase in compound climate extremes (droughts and heatwaves). Finally, meeting the gap between supply and demand due to climate change is estimated to contribute 79.0–184.6 and 50.6–316.2 MMT CO 2e /yr of additional GHG emissions by the mid and end of 21st century, respectively.
Co-optimizing water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection projects using a machine learning assisted computational framework
In this report, a robust machine-learning-based computational framework that couples multi-layer neural network (MLNN) proxies and a multi-objective particle swarm optimizer (MOPSO) to design water-alternating-carbon dioxide injection (CO 2 -WAG) projects is presented. The proposed optimization protocol considers various objectives, including oil recovery and CO 2 storage volume. Expert MLNN systems are trained and employed as surrogate models of the high-fidelity compositional simulator in the optimization workflow. When multiple objective functions are considered, two approaches are employed to treat the objectives: the weighted sum method and the Pareto-front-based scheme. A field-scale implementation focusing on tertiary recovery in the Morrow B formation at Farnsworth Unit (FWU) is presented. The developed Pareto-optimal solutions indicate the maximal available oil production can be 1.64 × 10 7 barrels and maximal carbon storage can achieve 2.35 × 10 7 tons. Trade-offs factor is defined to divide the constructed Pareto front into 4 sections with the trade-off factors’ value ranges from 0.35 to 49.9. This work also compares the optimum solution found by the aggregative objective function and the solution repository covered by the Pareto front that considers the physical and operational constraints and reduces uncertainties involved by the multi-objective optimization process. Our comparison indicates multiple solutions exist to satisfy the objective criteria of the WAG design, and these results cannot be found using the traditional weighted sum method. The Pareto front solution can provide more options for project designers, but decisions regarding necessary trade-offs must be made using the solution repository to balance the project economics and CO 2 storage amount.
Oxidation kinetic modelling of Fe-based oxygen carriers for chemical looping applications: Impact of the topochemical effect
Chemical looping is a promising technology for fossil fuel utilization due to its high fuel conversion efficiency with in-situ CO 2 capture capability. Metal oxide are used as oxygen carriers (OCs) and circulate between a fuel reactor and an air reactor to perform reduction and oxidation reactions, respectively. In general, OC exiting the fuel reactor is not reduced fully to its metallic state due to many factors including carbon deposition and OC deactivation. Therefore, the effect of the initial reduction state on the OC oxidation in the air reactor is a significant parameter for consideration in developing the oxidation kinetic model. The objective of this work is to develop a physically significant kinetic model that applies to the oxidation of both initially fully and partially reduced OC with air. For this study, 1.5 mm Fe-based OC particle supported with TiO 2 was used as the model OC particle due to its complex multistep reaction nature. The oxidation kinetics were experimentally investigated in a thermogravimetric analyzer (TGA). Results indicate a significant difference in the oxidation rate profile for the OCs when oxidized from an initially fully reduced compared to an initially partially reduced state. Elemental mapping via energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS) reveals a shrinking-core type topochemical pattern across the OC particle, which was identified to be the cause of the dependency of kinetics on the initial reduction state. A generalized kinetic model was developed based on the observed shrinking-core behavior without presuming any rate-determining steps and experimentally validated over a broad range of temperatures (800–1000 °C) and oxygen concentrations (5, 7, 10, and 15 mol%). Impacts of particle porosity, size, and core-shell structure on the OC oxidation kinetics were analyzed in the developed oxidation kinetic model to suggest methods of improving the oxidation rate of the OC without modifying the chemical composition.
Coal direct chemical looping process: 250 kW pilot-scale testing for power generation and carbon capture
Chemical looping combustion (CLC) is an energy conversion technology that can produce concentrated CO 2 stream without the need for a gas separation step, and thus, has the potential to drastically reduce the energy consumption and cost associated with CO 2 capture in power generation. The coal-direct chemical looping (CDCL) process is a CLC technology that uses a moving bed reducer configuration that can directly consume coal as a feedstock without requiring an upstream gasification step. An integrated 250 kW th CDCL pilot unit using iron-based oxygen carriers was constructed and demonstrated for over 1000 h of testing. The principles for the CDCL pilot unit design and operation are summarized in this article. During the 288-hour continuous operation testing, the CDCL pilot unit achieved >96% coal conversion with a CO 2 purity of >97%. Low carbon carryover into the combustor, i.e. <2%, was also confirmed during the test, which shows the capability of the moving bed reactor to retain and convert coal using the oxygen available on the iron-based oxygen carrier. The results from the pilot unit testing confirms the CDCL concept as a promising coal combustion technology for heat and power generation with CO 2 capture.
Integrated cabin heating and powertrain thermal energy management for a connected hybrid electric vehicle
Not Available
Short-term apartment-level load forecasting using a modified neural network with selected auto-regressive features
Residential electricity load profiles and their diversity have become increasingly important to realize the benefits of Smart or Transactive Energy Networks (TENs). An important element of TENs will be practical, accurate, and implementable residential load forecasting techniques. While there have been many approaches to short-term load forecasting, few have included forecasting for individual households, partly because the high volatility and idiosyncrasies present in individual household load data can pose significant challenges. In this study, we develop a Convolutional Long Short-Term Memory-based neural network with Selected Autoregressive Features (termed a CLSAF model) to improve short-term household electricity load forecasting accuracy by employing three strategies: autoregressive features selection, exogenous features selection, and a “default” state to avoid overfitting at times of high load volatility. We include aggregations of apartments to floor and building level, because utilities may favor transactive approaches that rely on aggregator models, e.g., a cluster of consumers as opposed to an individual. We demonstrate that the CLSAF model, by virtue of its enhanced feature representation and modest computational resources, can accomplish load forecasting in a multi-family residential building across three spatial granularities (individual apartment/household, floor, and building levels), with an accuracy improvement of up to 25% compared to a persistence model. We propose a data screening technique to characterize time-series electricity-load data. This technique is suitable for integration into a TEN ecosystem and allows one to estimate confidence levels of the load forecasts to optimize computational resources and the risks associated with uncertain forecasts.
Microalgae to biofuels through hydrothermal liquefaction: Open-source techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment
Hydrothermal liquefaction is a promising conversion technology in algae biofuel research due to its ability to agnostically convert proteins, carbohydrates, and lipids to biocrude. The high-temperature conditions that define this conversion process require the material to maintain a subcritical liquid state, which complicates the assessment of accurate thermochemical properties due to the required pressure. To clarify this issue, this work compares the estimated performance of algal hydrothermal liquefaction between different thermodynamic models. A process model was developed in Aspen Plus from a robust assessment of current literature. Techno-economic assessment and life-cycle assessment metrics are derived from this model and used as key performance indicators. The baseline fuel price contribution of hydrothermal liquefaction is $0.45 per liter gasoline equivalent. Independently decreasing the temperature from 350 °C to 260 °C while maintaining yield reduces the conversion cost by 19%, illustrating the importance of understanding the high-temperature thermodynamics of the system. Different thermodynamic property models can vary fuel conversion cost results by $0.07 per liter gasoline equivalent. The baseline global warming potential is +23 g CO 2 eq MJ -1 and the net energy ratio is 0.30. Environmental metrics beyond global warming potential and net energy ratio are also discussed for the first time. Uncertainties in conversion performance are bounded through a scenario analysis that manipulates parameters such as product yield and nutrient recycle to produce a range of economic and environmental metrics. The report is supplemented with an open source model to support future hydrothermal liquefaction assessments and accelerate the development of commercial-scale systems.
A transmissive concentrator photovoltaic module with cells directly cooled by silicone oil for solar cogeneration systems
Hybrid concentrator photovoltaic-thermal systems can cogenerate electricity and heat by beam-splitting incoming concentrated light onto photovoltaic cells and a thermal receiver to increase total conversion efficiency and potentially reduce system cost. To demonstrate this, we have designed and prototyped a transmissive spectrum-splitting concentrator photovoltaic module that maximizes solar energy conversion by utilizing the entire solar spectrum. Visible light is collected using infrared-transmissive triple-junction photovoltaic cells to achieve an in-band module efficiency of 43.3% for light of wavelength λ < 873 nm, while 44.2% of out-of-band light with λ > 873 nm is transmitted through for collection by a thermal receiver. During testing on a dual-axis tracked parabolic concentrator dish at up to 166 suns, cell temperatures were maintained at 119 °C or below via a novel active cooling method. This cooling system strictly flows silicone oil directly across both sides of the cells, without inhibiting optical transmission, as verified through experimentation and simulation. The module was validated outdoors for 572 sun·hrs, and achieved a maximum thermal receiver temperature of 180 °C. 86.1% of incident solar power is collected at 166 suns average concentration collectively among the electrical, cooling, and thermal receiver subsystems. The remaining 13.9% is lost to mirror reflectivity, dish shadowing, receiver reflection, and thermal losses. The ability to directly cool the cells with an inert silicone oil offers the potential for reduced system cost relative to previous transmissive hybrid concentrator photovoltaic-thermal systems, including microfluidic-cooled designs. This solar cogeneration capability is valuable in a wide range of commercial and industrial applications.
Characterizing weather-related biophysical and financial risks in algal biofuel production
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A surrogate-model-based approach for estimating the first and second-order moments of offshore wind power
Power curve, the functional relationship that governs the process of converting a set of weather variables experienced by a wind turbine into electric power, is widely used in the wind industry to estimate power output for planning and operational purposes. Existing methods for power curve estimation have three main limitations: (i) they mostly rely on wind speed as the sole input, thus ignoring the secondary, yet possibly significant effects of other environmental factors, (ii) they largely overlook the complex marine environment in which offshore turbines operate, potentially compromising their value in offshore wind energy applications, and (ii) they solely focus on the first-order properties of wind power, with little (or null) information about the variation around the mean behavior, which is important for ensuring reliable grid integration, asset health monitoring, and energy storage, among others. In light of that, this study investigates the impact of several wind-and wave-related factors on offshore wind power variability, with the ultimate goal of accurately predicting its first two moments. Further, our approach couples OpenFAST—a multi-physics wind turbine simulator—with Gaussian Process (GP) regression to reveal the underlying relationships governing offshore weather-to-power conversion. We first find that a multi-input power curve which captures the combined impact of wind speed, direction, and air density, can provide double-digit improvements, in terms of prediction accuracy, relative to univariate methods which rely on wind speed as the sole explanatory variable (e.g. the standard method of bins). Wave-related variables are found not important for predicting the average power output, but interestingly, appear to be extremely relevant in describing the fluctuation of the offshore power around its mean. Tested on real-world data collected at the New York/New Jersey bight, our proposed multi-input models demonstrate a high explanatory power in predicting the first two moments of offshore wind generation, testifying their potential value to the offshore wind industry.
Design of a 2 MW ZrC/W-based molten-salt-to-sCO 2 PCHE for concentrated solar power
To increase the power cycle efficiency and lower the levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) of concentrated solar power (CSP) plants, printed circuit heat exchangers (PCHEs) capable of operating above 700 °C with molten chloride salt and a sCO 2 -based fluid are needed. In this paper, the design of a high-pressure, high-temperature, 2 MW PCHE comprised of a thermomechanically-robust, zirconium carbide/tungsten (ZrC/W) composite is conducted for CSP plants. The ZrC/W composite is a material with high thermal conductivity, high stiffness, and high failure strength at high temperatures, along with excellent resistance to thermal cycling and thermal shock. In this work, a thermomechanical design analysis was conducted to select appropriate material thicknesses of the ZrC/W plates, and to determine the geometrical dimensions and the thermal performance of the PCHE. The influences of the plate number and heat exchanger length on power density and pressure drop have also been systematically investigated. Economic analyses were conducted to compare the cost of ZrC/W-based PCHEs to those comprised of IN740H (a state-of-the-art, nickel-based superalloy) and 316 stainless steel (316SS). Finally, at a sufficiently high plate production rate, the manufacturing cost of ZrC/W-based PCHEs can be significantly lower, while achieving a much higher power density, compared with state-of-the-art, nickel alloy-based and stainless steel-based PCHEs.
Economic, energetic, and environmental analysis of lignocellulosic biorefineries with carbon capture
Not Available
Utilizing commercial heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services: A review
The modern power grid faces multiple challenges due to an increase in the adoption of renewable generation, such as dynamically balancing supply and demand at different time scales. Demand side management in buildings plays a vital role in achieving this balance because buildings can provide grid services through a variety of building assets. However, the development of grid-interactive, efficient buildings is still in its infancy, and a systematic and holistic understanding of grid service delivery strategies in terms of energy efficiency, load shifting, load shedding and load modulating is still limited. This paper is a comprehensive review of the development and application of building-level control strategies for utilizing heating, ventilating, and air conditioning systems to provide grid services. These strategies have been investigated through numerical and experimental studies. Control algorithms, such as heuristic rule-based control and model-based control, have been used to enable the automatic control delivery of grid services. The advantages and disadvantages of the strategies are summarized and discussed. Finally, research trends are also identified, which include considering predicted mean vote-based and occupant-based thermal comfort, modeling of occupant behavior, integrating power grid operations with building control, and combining different demand flexibility modes in the control design.
Atikokan Digital Twin: Machine learning in a biomass energy system
The Atikokan Generating Station, operated by Ontario Power Generation, has a 200 MW, biomass-fired tower boiler that operates on a dispatch schedule with a five-minute cycle. The boiler is generally operated in the range of 40–100 MW using two of five burner levels. In order to optimize boiler performance, we propose the implementation of a unique digital twin. Our digital twin abstraction couples Bayesian inference from science-based models and from observations (machine learning) with decision theory to predict operating-variable set points that optimize the physical asset (the boiler) in the presence of uncertainty (artificial intelligence). We focus this paper on the continuous Bayesian machine learning part of the Atikokan Digital Twin; we discuss decision theory in a companion paper. We identify and learn about 12 operational, model, and measured-output parameters and their uncertainties from high-fidelity, science-based simulations of the Atikokan boiler and from the observed measurements at the power plant. Since the goal of the Atikokan Digital Twin is to implement it online in real time, we require fast function evaluations for the quantities of interest extracted from the simulations in the Bayesian analysis. We use Gaussian process regression/interpolation to create accurate, robust surrogate models. We define the Bayesian priors and likelihood function and solve for the posterior distributions of the 12 parameters. Here we then propagate these distributions (i.e., parameters with uncertainty) into the predicted distributions of 790 quantities of interest to learn about the relative importance of various sources of error including experimental, model, and operating-parameter errors.
Sustainable hydrogen manufacturing via renewable-integrated intensified process for refueling stations
The widescale consumer adoption of hydrogen fuel cell electric vehicles (HFCEVs) is currently hindered by the high cost of small-scale hydrogen generation and the lack of extensive hydrogen refueling infrastructure. Natural gas-based hydrogen is cheaper when produced in large volumes but is also associated with high CO 2 emissions. To counter these challenges, we propose a hybrid approach where both natural gas and renewables are integrated in a synergistic manner using a dynamic process intensification technology that can be deployed on-site for meeting local demands of refueling stations. The technology is based on sorption enhanced steam methane reforming (SE-SMR) that utilizes a combination of reaction with in-situ CO 2 adsorption for enhancing process modularity, productivity and efficiency thereby outperforming conventional SMR at small scale. We develop a mixed integer linear programming (MILP)-based optimization framework for simultaneous design and scheduling of the SE-SMR process. The simultaneous optimization provides a synergistic combination whereby the renewables allow sustainable hydrogen manufacturing and the dynamic SE-SMR allows optimal use of the intermittency of the renewables. The U.S. nationwide analysis indicates that for futuristic renewable prices and a hydrogen production capacity of 2 ton/day, hydrogen can be produced at 50% less cost compared to the current cost of small-scale hydrogen generation. Finally, the city-wise analysis with varying hydrogen demand shows that even with just 5% HFCEV market penetration level, hydrogen production cost less than $3/kg can be obtained at small scales across the United States with even cheaper hydrogen for large cities.
A hybrid architecture for volt-var control in active distribution grids
Modern active distribution grids are characterized by the increasing penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs). The proper coordination and scheduling of a large numbers of these small-scale and spatially distributed DERs is necessary, and warrants the use of novel distributed approaches. In this paper, we propose a hybrid volt-var control architecture for the distribution grid, which leverages existing centralized and local approaches to planning, decision making, and control, and augments it with distributed optimization and distributed control for DER management. First, we propose a convex model to describe the power physics of distribution grids of meshed topology and unbalanced structure, based on current injection and McCormick Envelopes. Second, we employ the distributed proximal atomic coordination (PAC) algorithm to coordinate DERs to provide voltage support. We implement volt-var optimization by optimally coordinating DERs including PV smart inverters and demand response. We present results using the IEEE-34 bus network, using real data from a distribution feeder in Hawaii, to model load and PV generation. Different levels of DER penetration and objective functions are simulated. Finally, our results show the need for the coordination of DERs to improve voltage profiles, even in networks with existing voltage control devices. Further, we show the need for flexible reactive power capabilities to achieve desired grid performance.