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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2017

Current EBC Development and Testing at NASA

SiC SiC Ceramic Matrix Composites (CMCs) are a game changer for advanced power generation equipment because of their high temperature capability, oxidation resistance, and light weight that translate to significant reduction in fuel consumption and emission. Limitations of SiC SiC CMCs include surface recession and component cracking and associated chemical and physical degradation in the CMC. The solution pursued to mitigate surface recession of SiC SiC CMCs is the incorporation of coating systems that provide surface protection, which has become known as an Environmental Barrier Coating (EBC). The development of EBCs for the protection of SiC SiC CMCs was a continuation of coating development work for corrosion protection of silicon-based monolithics. The first and second generation EBCs developed in mid 1990s-early 2000s laid the foundation for current EBCs. Environmental degradation that limits EBC life includes surface recession by steam, oxidation in steam environments, and CMAS-EBC reactions. Many engine tests have been conducted since late 1990s and a first CMC component entered into service in 2016 in a commercial engine. The introduction of CMCs represents significant challenges as failure of the EBC means rapid reduction in component life. A reliable lifing method and engine-relevant testing methods to validate life need to be developed. This paper will current activities on EBC development and testing at NASA.

CMC↗
NASA NTRS2018

Cryogenic Selective Surfaces

There are many challenges involved in deep-space exploration, but several of these can be mitigated, or even solved, by the development of a coating that reflects most of the Sun’s energy, yet still provides far-infrared heat emission. Such a coating would allow non-heat-generating objects in space to reach cryogenic temperatures without using an active cooling system. This would benefit deep-space sensors that require low temperatures, such as the James Webb Telescope focal plane array. It would also allow the use of superconductors in deep space, which could lead to magnetic energy storage rings, lossless power delivery, or perhaps a large-volume magnetic shield against galactic cosmic radiation. However, perhaps the most significant enablement achieved from such a coating would be the long-term, deep space storage of cryogenic liquids, such as liquid oxygen (LOX). In our Phase I NIAC study, we realized that a combination of scattering particles and a silver backing could yield a highly effective, very broadband, reflector that could potentially reflect more than 99.9% of the Sun’s irradiant power. We developed a sophisticated model of this reflector and theoretically showed that cryogenic temperatures could be achieved in deep space at one astronomical unit (1 AU) from the Sun. We showed how this new reflector could minimize heat conduction into the cryogenic tanks by coating the tank support struts. We then modelled a strawman architecture for a mission to Mars, using a coated LOX tank, coated struts, and infrared shields, to show that with our new coating it would be possible to maintain liquid oxygen passively. As a result of this work a patent application was generated and a paper published in Optics Letters. Our Phase II NIAC study had two primary goals, to develop a rigid version of the cryogenic selective surface proposed in Phase I and to test its performance in a simulated deep space environment. During the first year of the project the work concentrated on developing rigid tiles of BaF2, leading to tiles as large as 4 inches in diameter that transmitted very little visible light. In addition, during the first year a simulated deep space environment was created using a vacuum chamber and cryocooler. Using this facility, we showed that our BaF2 tiles absorbed less than ¼% of 375 nm radiation, a significant milestone for the work. During the second year of the project, we continued to develop the BaF2 tiles and we put significant effort into the construction of a deep space environment where we could project simulated solar radiation onto a sample. In the spring of 2018, we conducted our first solar simulator test with BaF2 and saw about 3.6% absorption. This is better than the state-of-the-art, but disappointing since predictions were for much lower absorption. We, erroneously, attributed this absorption to water retention by the BaF2, and decided to change materials. We considered several oxides and settled on yttrium oxide (Y2O3) for further development, because it is broadband, lightweight, has high index, and is hydrophobic. In July 2018 we conducted our first test of a rigid tile of Y2O3 in the simulated deep space environment and saw significant absorption again. We then realized that the issue was not water, but mid-wave radiation passing through the tile and being absorbed by the temperature sensor and the varnish used to hold it in place. We wrapped the sensor in silver foil, re-ran the test, and saw much lower absorption; only 1.1%. We then re-ran the BaF2 tile and saw 1.4% absorption. These values are almost adequate to maintain LOX in deep space, but we suspect that there are still issues in our test apparatus; we suspect thermocouple wires may be absorbing radiation. Further, post-NIAC, testing will better determine the performance of our new solar reflector. In order to restrict the size of this report, we will only briefly describe topics that we have previously published, allowing us to devote more time to new material. So minimal material will be devoted to modeling the material and deep space cryogenic storage, while longer sections will cover our material development, simulated deep space testing, and new applications. The Launch Service Program (LSP) requested that we explore ways to use this new coating to maintain LOX in low Earth Orbit and that work is described. In addition, the Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) Program asked us to explore ways to reduce the heat load for liquid hydrogen, resulting in the development of a spray-on version of the coating that should significantly improve in-space multi-layer insulation performance.

Robert C. Youngquist,↗
DOE OSTI2024

The role of hydrogen as long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier for electricity sector decarbonization

With countries and economies around the globe increasingly relying on non-dispatchable variable renewable energy (VRE), the need for effective energy storage and international carriers of low-carbon energy has intensified. This study delves into hydrogen's prospective, multifaceted contribution to decarbonizing the electricity sector, with emphasis on its utilization as a scalable technology for long-duration energy storage and as an international energy carrier. Using Japan as a case study, based on its ambitious national hydrogen strategy and plans to import liquefied hydrogen as a low-carbon fuel source, we employ advanced models encompassing capacity expansion and hourly dispatch. We explore diverse policy scenarios to unravel the timing, quantity, and operational intricacies of hydrogen deployment within a power system. Our findings highlight the essential role of hydrogen in providing a reliable power supply by balancing mismatches in VRE generation and load over several weeks and months and reducing the costs of achieving a zero-emission power system. The study recommends prioritizing domestically produced hydrogen, leveraging renewables for cost reduction, and strategically employing imported hydrogen as a risk hedge against potential spikes in battery storage and renewable energy costs. Furthermore, the strategic incorporation of hydrogen mitigates system costs and enhances energy self-sufficiency, informing policy design and investment strategies aligned with the dynamic global energy landscape.

08 HYDROGEN↗
NASA NTRS2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC/yr for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC/yr). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

land use and land cover change↗
DOE OSTI2025

Improved signal stability in inductively coupled plasma–atomic emission spectrometry through use of tandem spray chambers and surfactant addition

A search for causes of intermittent mid-term (about two hours) instability in emission signals from an inductively coupled plasma led to adoption of a tandem spray-chamber arrangement and subsequently to use of a surfactant (Triton X-100) to mitigate the remaining and newly found instabilities. Through a series of investigations, abrupt signal excursions in the tandem setup were traced to droplet coagulation and drainage inside the glass tube that connected the two spray chambers. However, the signal shifts were not the result of sample-solution release directly but rather to the influence of the underlying factors on plasma behavior. Experiments tailored to the study included not only examination of temporal signal behavior but also collection of long-term videos and measurement of radiofrequency characteristics of the plasma. The addition of a surfactant, Triton X-100, for signal-stability improvement is applicable not only to systems that employ tandem spray chambers but also to conventional single Scott-type chamber arrangements. Further, use of the surfactant was unsuccessful in overcoming “acid effects”, either of the steady-state or transient nature, and did not alter plasma background or analyte signals significantly.

Inductively coupled plasma–atomic emission spectro↗
DOE OSTI2020

Topological nanophotonics for photoluminescence control

Rare-earth-doped nanocrystals are emerging light sources that can produce tunable emissions in colours and lifetimes, which has been typically achieved in chemistry and material science. However, one important optical challenge – polarization of photoluminescence – remains largely out of control by chemistry methods. Control over photoluminescence polarization can be gained via coupling of emitters to resonant nanostructures such as optical antennas and metasurfaces. However, the resulting polarization is typically sensitive to position disorder of emitters, which is difficult to mitigate. Recently, new classes of disorder-immune optical systems have been explored within the framework of topological photonics. Here we explore disorder-robust topological arrays of Mie-resonant nanoparticles for polarization control of photoluminescence of nanocrystals. We demonstrate polarized emission from rare-earth-doped nanocrystals governed by photonic topological edge states supported by zigzag arrays of dielectric resonators. We verify the topological origin of polarized photoluminescence by comparing emission from nanoparticles coupled to topologically trivial and nontrivial arrays of nanoresonators. We expect that our results may open a new direction in the study of topology-enable emission properties of topological edge states in many photonic systems.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Mitigation of distortion of Al/steel part under simulated paint baking condition: Experiment and numerical model studies

Multi-material joining of lightweight structures is essential to reduce vehicle weight for more energy savings and less greenhouse gas emission. However, mismatch of thermal expansion coefficient for dissimilar materials during the paint baking process can induce part distortion and joint failure for adhesive bonding. Here, in the present work, a thermomechanical model based on contact mechanics and large deformation theory was developed for dissimilar high-strength Al alloy and steel components to study the distortion mechanism and influential factors of the residual gap. The established model was used to optimize joint conditions, such as pitch distance and part geometry. When a weld pitch is shorter than 100 mm, the maximum gap between Al and steel part can be greatly reduced to 0.1 mm, and the local stress and plastic strain around the joint during the oven heating and cooling cycle are also substantially reduced compared with the long pitch case (900 mm). The numerical modeling results revealed that a comparable bending stiffness ratio between the steel and Al cross sections is critical to the minimization of gap and distortion under paint baking condition. Digital image correlation technique was used to measure the overall part distortion and local strain distribution that were used to validate the model prediction. Weld bonding (adhesive bonding with friction bit joining) process was successfully employed to join Al to steel component without gap opening in adhesive after the paint baking and cooling.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modelled land use and land cover change emissions – a spatio-temporal comparison of different approaches

Abstract. Quantifying the net carbon flux from land use and land cover changes (fLULCC) is critical for understanding the global carbon cycle and, hence, to support climate change mitigation. However, large-scale fLULCC is not directly measurable and has to be inferred from models instead, such as semi-empirical bookkeeping models and process-based dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs). By definition, fLULCC estimates are not directly comparable between these two different model types. As an important example, DGVM-based fLULCC in the annual global carbon budgets is estimated under transient environmental forcing and includes the so-called loss of additional sink capacity (LASC). The LASC results from the impact of environmental changes on land carbon storage potential of managed land compared to potential vegetation and accumulates over time, which is not captured in bookkeeping models. The fLULCC from transient DGVM simulations, thus, strongly depends on the timing of land use and land cover changes mainly because LASC accumulation is cut off at the end of the simulated period. To estimate the LASC, the fLULCC from pre-industrial DGVM simulations, which is independent of changing environmental conditions, can be used. Additionally, DGVMs using constant present-day environmental forcing enable an approximation of bookkeeping estimates. Here, we analyse these three DGVM-derived fLULCC estimations (under transient, pre-industrial, and present-day forcing) for 12 models within 18 regions and quantify their differences as well as climate- and CO2-induced components and compare them to bookkeeping estimates. Averaged across the models, we find a global fLULCC (under transient conditions) of 2.0±0.6 PgC yr−1 for 2009–2018, of which ∼40 % are attributable to the LASC (0.8±0.3 PgC yr−1). From 1850 onward, the fLULCC accumulated to 189±56 PgC with 40±15 PgC from the LASC. Around 1960, the accumulating nature of the LASC causes global transient fLULCC estimates to exceed estimates under present-day conditions, despite generally increased carbon stocks in the latter. Regional hotspots of high cumulative and annual LASC values are found in the USA, China, Brazil, equatorial Africa, and Southeast Asia, mainly due to deforestation for cropland. Distinct negative LASC estimates in Europe (early reforestation) and from 2000 onward in the Ukraine (recultivation of post-Soviet abandoned agricultural land), indicate that fLULCC estimates in these regions are lower in transient DGVM compared to bookkeeping approaches. Our study unravels the strong dependence of fLULCC estimates on the time a certain land use and land cover change event happened to occur and on the chosen time period for the forcing of environmental conditions in the underlying simulations. We argue for an approach that provides an accounting of the fLULCC that is more robust against these choices, for example by estimating a mean DGVM ensemble fLULCC and LASC for a defined reference period and homogeneous environmental changes (CO2 only).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Estimating the economic value of hydropeaking externalities in regulated rivers

Hydropower is a flexible form of electricity generation providing both baseload and balancing power to accommodate intermittent renewables in the energy mix. However, hydropower also generates various externalities. This study investigates individuals' preferences for policies aiming to reduce short-term regulations (i.e., hydropeaking in regulated rivers) while accounting for associated externalities with a discrete choice experiment. This is the first valuation study focusing on hydropeaking that considers both negative and positive externalities. The results imply that most individuals prefer stronger restrictions on short-term regulations to mitigate local environmental impacts. Individuals especially value improvements in recreational use, fish stocks, and the ecological state. On the other hand, potential increases in CO 2 emissions are linked with a clear disutility. The estimated benefits obtained from an improved state of the river environment due to such restrictions exceed the disutility caused by increased CO 2 emissions. Furthermore, the results also reveal unobserved preference heterogeneity among individuals, which should be accounted for in the willingness-to-pay (WTP) estimation using a model specification with correlated utility coefficients. Overall, the findings can inform policy-makers and environmental managers on the economic value of hydropeaking externalities and further guide the sustainable management of rivers regulated for hydropower generation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prioritizing urban heat adaptation infrastructure based on multiple outcomes: Comfort, health, and energy

Globally, cities face increasing extreme heat, impacting comfort, health, and energy consumption. Infrastructure-based heat adaptation strategies can improve these outcomes, but each strategy has a unique mix of benefits and drawbacks. Here, we apply an urbanized meteorological model (WRF) with the newly integrated multilayer BEP-Tree street tree model to dynamically downscale Earth System Model projections and a 3-D microclimate model (TUF-Pedestrian) to simulate the street-scale radiation environment impacting pedestrians. We evaluate the performance of five heat adaptation strategies (street trees, cool roofs, green roofs, rooftop photovoltaics (PV), and reflective pavements) during extreme heat events in three cities with contrasting background climates (Toronto, Phoenix, and Miami), under contemporary and end-of-century projected climates, based on three metrics: outdoor heat stress, air conditioning (AC) energy use, and ventilation of vehicular air pollution. No single adaptation strategy improves all three outcomes. While street trees inhibit ventilation, they reduce outdoor heat stress four times more effectively than the next best strategy via shade provision, fully offsetting heat stress increases under a high-emissions end-of-century climate scenario in all cities studied. Cool roofs and green roofs moderately reduce heat stress and energy use. Alternatively, rooftop PV with energy storage can generate sufficient power for space cooling but have marginal effects on heat stress. Reflective pavements are the least effective across metrics. Where the ventilation of street-level emissions is of less concern, our results clearly support the combination of street trees and rooftop PV as a highly complementary and effective means of adaptive mitigation across different climates and neighborhood densities.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

ENSO modulation of summertime tropospheric ozone over China

Ozone (O 3 ) is one of the most critical pollutants affecting air quality in China in recent years. In this study, different impacts of the El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) warm/cold phases on summertime tropospheric O 3 over China are examined based on model simulations, ground measurements, and reanalysis data. Summertime surface O 3 concentrations in China show a positive correlation with ENSO index during years 1990–2019, with the largest increases by 20% over southern China in El Niño (warm phase) relative to La Niña (cold phase) years. The ENSO modulation extends to the middle and even upper troposphere. Our analysis indicates that O 3 flux convergence associated with weakened southerlies is the primary reason for the increase in tropospheric O 3 over southern China. In addition, the O 3 increase during El Niño years is mainly from domestic emissions in China. This study highlights the potential significance of ENSO in modulating tropospheric O 3 concentrations in China, with great implications for O 3 pollution mitigation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Available land for cellulosic biofuel production: a supply chain centered comparison

The land that is potentially available to produce dedicated cellulosic bioenergy crops, often referred to as 'marginal' land, depends heavily on the underlying assumptions used to classify and identify it. In this study we compare three definitions and types of marginal land to identify the interactions between the bioenergy landscape and the logistics networks needed for the biofuel supply chain. Typical studies of the scale, cost, and greenhouse gas (GHG) mitigation potential of cellulosic biofuel take a land-centered approach which may neglect to account for the trade-offs between establishing bioenergy crops and the supply chain design decisions needed to allow those crops to be converted to liquid fuel. A mathematical programming approach is used to minimize the total annualized cost of a large-scale field-to-product system producing bioethanol in the USA midwest. Results show that a high concentration of marginal land leads to efficient systems and that the bioenergy landscape design becomes increasingly important with a higher emphasis on GHG mitigation. Additionally, targeted landscape design (including fertilization) with a focus on fields with high soil carbon sequestration potential can greatly reduce the system-wide GHG emissions for only a small increase in the unit cost of biofuel.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Seasonal Reconfiguration of Electrical Distribution Systems to Mitigate the Impact of Electric Vehicle Charging

Power grids face challenges in their infrastructure related to the integration of electric vehicles (EV). In particular, EV charging stations may induce instability in key system parameters such as substantial voltage drops, active power losses, and transformer overload due to high demand during charging periods. This article presents a seasonal reconfiguration strategy based on the differential evolution (DE) algorithm, aimed at enhancing system performance under highly variable and stochastic load profiles, particularly those driven by EV charging. The DEA algorithm is hybridized with the find-union (FU) algorithm to efficiently ensure network radiality throughout the optimization process. The proposed methodology is validated on a hybrid distribution system composed of the IEEE 33-bus network, a modified IEEE 13-bus system, and a specific 13-bus microgrid. Results have demonstrated that seasonal reconfiguration significantly reduces active power losses and mitigates transformer loading during critical demand hours, thereby quantifiably increasing the system’s performance. As an integral component of the proposed approach, an analysis of CO2 emissions associated with energy losses is included, allowing a contextualized assessment of the environmental benefits of seasonal reconfiguration in various geographical areas.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
NASA NTRS1990

Interactions between the Space Station and the environment: A preliminary assessment of EMI

A review of the interactions between proposed Space Station systems/payloads and the environment that contribute to electromagnetic interference was performed. Seven prime sources of interference have been identified. These are: The Space Station power system; active experiments such as beam injection; ASTROMAG; ram and wake density gradients; pick up ions produced by vented or offgassed clouds; waves produced by current loops that include the plasma and structure; arcing from high voltage solar arrays (or possible ESD in polar orbit). This review indicates that: minimizing leakage current from the 20 kHz power system to the structure; keeping the surfaces of the Space Station structure, arrays, and radiators nonconducting; minimizing venting of payloads or systems to non-operational periods; careful placement of payloads sensitive to magnetic field perturbations or wake noise; and designing an operational timeline compatible with experiment requirement are the most effective means of minimizing the effects of this interference. High degrees of uncertainty exist in the estimates of magnitudes of gas emission induced EMI, radiation of 20 kHz and harmonics, ASTROMAG induced interference, and arc threshold/frequency of the solar array. These processes demand further attention so that mitigation efforts are properly calibrated.

Murphy, G. B.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Nature-based climate solutions can help mitigate the radiative forcing that follows deforestation

Widespread expansion of agriculture and forestry has altered the surface of the Earth, the composition of the atmosphere, and as a result, the climate. Here we quantify the radiative forcing caused by the historical deforestation of an ecoregion in the U.S. Upper Midwest and the adoption of eight nature-based climate solutions. We combined regional forest inventory data with over three decades of remote sensing and in situ data from a replicated land use change experiment. Deforestation of the region caused net global warming (1626 ± 44 µW m -2 ), mainly from the 76 % reduction of ecosystem carbon stocks, but also from the 84 % reduction of the soil methane sink and the 115 % increase in soil nitrous oxide emissions. The associated albedo increase offset 24 % of this greenhouse gas induced warming. For the adoption of nature-based climate solutions, we found that conservation agriculture can provide -39 to -76 ± 31 µW m -2 of climate mitigation over a 100-year time period while short/medium length forestry rotations can provide more at -296 to -881 ± 44 µW m -2 and natural forest regeneration can provide the most at -1555 ± 44 µW m -2 . As the impacts of climate change on nature and society intensify, consideration should be given to the climate mitigation, habitat, and ecosystem services that nature-based climate solutions can provide.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Controlling pollutant emissions in a high-pressure combustor with fuel-diluent blending

This paper investigates the formation of nitric oxide (NO) and carbon monoxide (CO) emissions as a function of nitrogen (N 2 ) or carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) diluent content, added to a premixed reacting jet in crossflow. Here, reaction characteristics of a rich methane-air jet injected into a lean vitiated crossflow were analyzed at an elevated pressure of 5 atm. The jet was pre-heated and enriched with 0%, 15%, 30%, and 50% mass fraction to quantify the effect on pollutant emissions. Simulated results of the full chemistry Star-CCM+CFD model were verified with data taken in the experimental high-pressure combustion facility, which provides pressure, temperature and velocity profiles, as well as line-of-sight chemiluminescence and exit emission measurements. The analysis revealed the significant influence of the diluent to delay axial combustion; this mixing delay increased the axial flame lift-off and controlled any thermal ignition limitations. Increasing the diluent content increased the timescale for the flame to stabilize, which allowed for greater entrainment of crossflow oxidizer into the axial jet stream, and led to decreased pollutant emissions. Hence, crossflow entrainment is a critical driving force at high diluent content. Local nitric oxide (NO) emission formation in the axial stage was predicted numerically, showing the correlation between diluent addition, axial heat release, and the formation of nitric oxide pollution. The high diluent levels leaned out the jet mixture and delayed axial combustion, while reducing prompt and thermal NOx by mitigating flame hotspots and minimizing the timescale that the products remain at high temperatures.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Demand-side solutions to climate change mitigation consistent with high levels of well-being

Mitigation solutions are often evaluated in terms of costs and greenhouse gas reduction potentials, missing out on the consideration of direct effects on human well-being. Here, we systematically assess the mitigation potential of demand-side options categorized into avoid, shift and improve, and their human well-being links. Here we show that these options, bridging socio-behavioural, infrastructural and technological domains, can reduce counterfactual sectoral emissions by 40–80% in end-use sectors. Based on expert judgement and an extensive literature database, we evaluate 306 combinations of well-being outcomes and demand-side options, finding largely beneficial effects in improvement in well-being (79% positive, 18% neutral and 3% negative), even though we find low confidence on the social dimensions of well-being. Implementing such nuanced solutions is based axiomatically on an understanding of malleable rather than fixed preferences, and procedurally on changing infrastructures and choice architectures. Results demonstrate the high mitigation potential of demand-side mitigation options that are synergistic with well-being.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainties in greenhouse gas emission factors: A comprehensive analysis of switchgrass‐based biofuel production

Abstract This study investigates uncertainties in greenhouse gas (GHG) emission factors related to switchgrass‐based biofuel production in Michigan. Using three life cycle assessment (LCA) databases—US lifecycle inventory (USLCI) database, GREET, and Ecoinvent—each with multiple versions, we recalculated the global warming intensity (GWI) and GHG mitigation potential in a static calculation. Employing Monte Carlo simulations along with local and global sensitivity analyses, we assess uncertainties and pinpoint key parameters influencing GWI. The convergence of results across our previous study, static calculations, and Monte Carlo simulations enhances the credibility of estimated GWI values. Static calculations, validated by Monte Carlo simulations, offer reasonable central tendencies, providing a robust foundation for policy considerations. However, the wider range observed in Monte Carlo simulations underscores the importance of potential variations and uncertainties in real‐world applications. Sensitivity analyses identify biofuel yield, GHG emissions of electricity, and soil organic carbon (SOC) change as pivotal parameters influencing GWI. Decreasing uncertainties in GWI may be achieved by making greater efforts to acquire more precise data on these parameters. Our study emphasizes the significance of considering diverse GHG factors and databases in GWI assessments and stresses the need for accurate electricity fuel mixes, crucial information for refining GWI assessments and informing strategies for sustainable biofuel production.

Kim, Seungdo↗