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At least 721 records · Page 40

Earth-moon system: Dynamics and parameter estimation; numerical considerations and program documentation

Major activities included coding and verifying equations of motion for the earth-moon system. Some attention was also given to numerical integration methods and parameter estimation methods. Existing analytical theories such as Brown's lunar theory, Eckhardt's theory for lunar rotation, and Newcomb's theory for the rotation of the earth were coded and verified. These theories serve as checks for the numerical integration. Laser ranging data for the period January 1969 - December 1975 was collected and stored on tape. The main goal of this research is the development of software to enable physical parameters of the earth-moon system to be estimated making use of data available from the Lunar Laser Ranging Experiment and the Very Long Base Interferometry experiment of project Apollo. A more specific goal is to develop software for the estimation of certain physical parameters of the moon such as inertia ratios, and the third and fourth harmonic gravity coefficients.

Breedlove, W. J., Jr.↗

Interface flux recovery framework for constructing partitioned heterogeneous time-integration methods

A common approach for the development of partitioned schemes employing different time integrators on different subdomains is to lag the coupling terms in time. This can lead to accuracy issues, especially in multistage methods. Here, in this article, we present a novel framework for partitioned heterogeneous time-integration methods, which allows the coupling of arbitrary multistage and multistep methods without reducing their order of accuracy. At the core of our approach are accurate estimates of the interface flux obtained from the Schur complement of an auxiliary monolithic system. We use these estimates to construct a polynomial-in-time approximation of the interface flux over the current time coupling window. This approximation provides the interface boundary conditions necessary to decouple the subdomain problems at any point within the coupling window. In so doing our framework enables a flexible choice of time-integrators for the individual subproblems without compromising the time-accuracy at the coupled problem level. This feature is the main distinction between our framework and other approaches. To demonstrate the framework, we construct a family of partitioned heterogeneous time-integration methods, combining multistage and multistep methods, for a simplified tracer transport component of the coupled air-sea system in Earth system models. We report numerical tests evaluating accuracy and flux conservation for different pairs of time-integrators from the explicit Runge-Kutta and Adams-Moulton families.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

From tides to seasons: How cyclic tidal drivers and plant physiology interact to affect carbon cycling at the terrestrial-estuarine boundary (Final technical report)

Coastal ecosystems are among the most biologically and biogeochemically active and diverse systems on Earth. Because they act as important linkages between terrestrial ecosystems and the open ocean, their incorporation in Earth system models (ESMs) is critical to predict coastal and global responses to environmental changes. However, they vary greatly in the magnitude of tides and the volume and timing of freshwater input from land, making it challenging to model the major biogeochemical reactions that control productivity and greenhouse gas emissions across coastal terrestrial aquatic interfaces (TAIs). Our overall objective was to improve mechanistic process understanding and modeling of tidal wetland hydro-biogeochemistry in coastal TAIs. We established a new flux tower site (Ameriflux US-PLo) in the oligohaline part of the Parker River to continuously monitor ecosystem-scale carbon fluxes under temporally varying salinity conditions. The site is co-located with long-term monitoring plots of the Plum Island Ecosystems LTER project. We installed wells and redox sensors in the marsh interior and creek bank, established biomass monitoring plots and deployed novel optode sensors in both locations. We used this data to parameterize plant-mediated transport in PFLOTRAN and tested the impact of soil heterogeneity on porewater constituents and gas fluxes. We collected observations of root oxygen release with a novel planar optode system in the field. Flux data collected during the measurement period encompasses a large variation in salinity ranging from drought to record precipitation years. We developed a method to extract functional relationships from the flux data using artificial neural networks, identifying salinity thresholds for CH 4 fluxes. Finally, we are using the coupled ELM-PFLOTRAN model to test the impact of antecedent hydrological conditions on the salinity-CH 4 flux relationship. This grant contributed to the professional development of one postdoc, three research assistants and one graduate student. The sensor data has been shared with external collaborators.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Prospect of Continuous VLBI Measurement of Earth Rotation in Monitoring Geophysical Fluids

Large-scale mass transports in the geophysical fluids of the Earth system excite Earth's rotational variations in both length-of-day and polar motion. The excitation process is via the conservation of angular momentum. Therefore Earth rotation observations contain information about the integrated angular momentum (consisting of both the mass term and the motion term) of the geophysical fluids, which include atmosphere, hydrosphere, mantle, and the outer and inner cores. Such global information is often important and otherwise unattainable depending on the nature of the mass transport, its magnitude and time scale. The last few years have seen great advances in VLBI measurement of Earth rotation in precision and temporal resolution. These advances have opened new. areas in geophysical fluid studies, such as oceanic tidal angular momentum, atmospheric tides, Earth librations, and rapid atmospheric angular momentum fluctuations. Precision of 10 microseconds in UTI and 200 microarcseconds in polar motion can now be achieved on hourly basis. Building upon this heritage, the multi-network geodetic VLBI project, Continuous Observation of the Rotation of the Earth (CORE), promises to further these studies and to make possible studies on elusive but tell-tale geophysical processes such as oscillatory modes in the core and in the atmosphere. Currently the early phase of CORE is underway. Within a few years into the new mellinnium, the upcoming space gravity missions (such as GRACE) will measure the temporal variations in Earth's gravitational field, thus providing complementary information to that from Earth rotation study for a better understanding of global geophysical fluid processes.

Chao, Benjamin F.↗

Mass Flux in the Ancient Earth-Moon System and Benign Implications for the Origin of Life on Earth

The origin of life on Earth is commonly considered to have been negatively affected by intense impacting in the Hadean, with the potential for the repeated evaporation and sterilization of any ocean. The impact flux is based on scaling from the lunar crater density record, but that record has no tie to any absolute age determination for any identified stratigraphic unit older than approx. 3.9 Ga (Nectaris basin). The flux can be described in terms of mass accretion, and various independent means can be used to estimate the mass flux in different intervals. The critical interval is that between the end of essential crustal formation (approx. 4.4 Ga) and the oldest mare times (approx. 3.8 Ga). The masses of the basin-forming projectiles during Nectarian and early Imbrian times, when the last 15 of the approx.45 identified impact basins formed, can be reasonably estimated as minima. These in sum provide a minimum of 2 x 10(exp 21)g for the mass flux to the Moon during those times. If the interval was 80 million years (Nectaris 3.90 Ga, Orientale 3.82 Ga), then the flux was approx. 2 x 10(exp 13) g/yr over this period. This is higher by more than an order of magnitude than a flux curve that declines continuously and uniformly from lunar accretion to the rate inferred for the older mare plains. This rate cannot be extrapolated back increasingly into pre-Nectarian times, because the Moon would have added masses far in excess of itself in post-crust-formation time. Thus this episode was a distinct and cataclysmic set of events. There are approx. 30 pre-Nectarian basins, and they were probably part of the same cataclysm (starting at approx. 4.0 Ga?) because the crust is fairly intact, the meteoritic contamination of the pre-Nectarian crust is very low, impact melt rocks older than 3.92 Ga are virtually unknown, and ancient volcanic and plutonic rocks have survived this interval. The accretionary flux from approx. 4.4 to approx. 4.0 Ga was comparatively benign. When scaled to Earth, even the late cataclysm does not produce oceane vaporating, globally sterilizing events. The rooted concept that such events took place is based on the extrapolation of a nonexistent lunar record to the Hadean. The Earth from approx. 4.4 to approx. 3.8 Ga was comparatively peaceful, and the impacting itself could have been thermally and hydrothermally beneficial. The origin of life could have taken place at any time between 4.4 and 3.85 Ga, given the current impact constraints, and there is no justification for the claim that life originated (or re-originated) as late as 3.85 Ga in response to the end of hostile impact conditions.

Ryder, Graham↗

Systemic Risk From the Perspective of Climate, Environmental and Disaster Risk Science and Practice

Understanding and managing systemic risk is more important than ever due to our immense global connectivity (e.g., between sectors, such as food-health-water-energy, countries and continents, down to individuals). Despite the fact that the notion of systemic risk is several decades old, the term is used in diverse ways across different disciplines (e.g., financial systems, medicine, earth system sciences, disaster risk research and climate science). Triggered by the repercussions of the global financial crisis of the late 2000s, and more recently the COVID-19 pandemic, which are clear realization of systemic risk, the perception of systemic risk has often been focused on global and catastrophic or even existential risks. Systemic risk, however, can be seen as a feature of systems at all possible scales (e.g., global, national, regional, local) with system boundaries varying depending on the context. Addressing current societal challenges, such as climate change, in terms of systemic risk requires integrating different systems perspectives and fostering system thinking, while implementing key intergovernmental agendas, such as the Paris Agreement, the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction and the Sustainable Development Goals. Based on insights gained and knowledge collected from an expert workshop, literature review and expert elicitation, we give an integrated perspective of climate, environmental and disaster risk science and practice on systemic risk as summarized in a Briefing Note to the International Science Council. We provide an overview of concepts of systemic risk that have evolved over time and identify commonalities across terminologies and perspectives associated with systemic risk used in different contexts. Key attributes of systemic risk are outlined without prescribing a single definition, and information and data requirements are discussed that are essential for a better and more actionable understanding of the systemic nature of risk. Finally, the opportunities to connect research and policy for addressing systemic risk are highlighted.

systemic risk↗

Tracking Improvement in Simulated Marine Biogeochemistry Between CMIP5 and CMIP6

Purpose of Review The changes or updates in ocean biogeochemistry component have been mapped between CMIP5 and CMIP6 model versions, and an assessment made of how far these have led to improvements in the simulated mean state of marine biogeochemical models within the current generation of Earth system models (ESMs). Recent Findings The representation of marine biogeochemistry has progressed within the current generation of Earth system models. However, it remains difficult to identify which model updates are responsible for a given improvement. In addition, the full potential of marine biogeochemistry in terms of Earth system interactions and climate feedback remains poorly examined in the current generation of Earth system models. Summary Increasing availability of ocean biogeochemical data, as well as an improved understanding of the underlying processes, allows advances in the marine biogeochemical components of the current generation of ESMs. The present study scrutinizes the extent to which marine biogeochemistry components of ESMs have progressed between the 5th and the 6th phases of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP).

Marine Biogeochemistry↗

EOS - The earth observing system of the 1990s

Attention is given to the deliberations of NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) Science and Mission Requirements Working Group, which has addressed the requirements and prospects for low earth orbit sensor platforms in the 1990s. The proposed EOS network would link data users with mission data repositories. Three EOS instrument packages have been chosen on the basis of synergistic instrument groupings for making simultaneous observations of selected phenomena over a variety of wavelengths.

Arvidson, R. E.↗

TERSSE: Definition of the Total Earth Resources System for the Shuttle Era. Volume 4: The Role of the Shuttle in the Earth Resources Program

The potential of the space shuttle as a platform for captive earth resources payloads in the sortie mode, and as a launch and services vehicle for automated earth resources spacecraft is examined. The capabilities of the total space transportation system which are pertinent to earth resources sorties and automated spacecraft are included.

Source record↗

Tidal Friction in the Earth-Moon System and Laplace Planes: Darwin Redux

The dynamical evolution of the Earth-Moon system due to tidal friction is treated here. George H. Darwin used Laplace planes (also called proper planes) in his study of tidal evolution. The Laplace plane approach is adapted here to the formalisms of W.M. Kaula and P. Goldreich. Like Darwin, the approach assumes a three-body problem: Earth, Moon, and Sun, where the Moon and Sun are point-masses. The tidal potential is written in terms of the Laplace plane angles. The resulting secular equations of motion can be easily integrated numerically assuming the Moon is in a circular orbit about the Earth and the Earth is in a circular orbit about the Sun. For Earth-Moon distances greater than ∼10 Earth radii, the Earth's approximate tidal response can be characterized with a single parameter, which is a ratio: a Love number times the sine of a lag angle divided by another such product. For low parameter values it can be shown that Darwin's low-viscosity molten Earth, M. Ross's and G. Schubert's model of an Earth near melting, and Goldreich's equal tidal lag angles must all give similar histories. For higher parameter values, as perhaps has been the case at times with the ocean tides, the Earth's obliquity may have decreased slightly instead of increased once the Moon's orbit evolved further than 50 Earth radii from the Earth, with possible implications for climate. This is contrast to the other tidal friction models mentioned, which have the obliquity always increasing with time. As for the Moon, its orbit is presently tilted to its Laplace plane by 5.2deg. The equations do not allow the Moon to evolve out of its Laplace plane by tidal friction alone, so that if it was originally in its Laplace plane, the tilt arose with the addition of other mechanisms, such as resonance passages.

Darwin Redux↗

System simulation on advanced earth-orbital satellite systems

A system simulation capability for advanced earth-orbital satellite systems (AEUSS) is presented. It is based on analytical assessment capabilities formulated for generic satellite systems in earth-orbital missions. The resulting AEOSS is a custom tailored software coded within the framework of the Macintosh version of the Acius relational database program, 4th Dimension. It projects the required power, weight, and cost for a satellite system. These key elements are computed on the component and subsystem levels, and then the system level. Selected performance analyses for essential components and subsystems are included.

Lee, Hwa-Ping↗

How AI Predicts the Untrained and Unseen

Focus Area: Model predictability improvements (Primary); Data optimization (secondary); Data complexity insights (secondary). The Scientific Challenge: If we believe that a future under extreme conditions will look very differently from today, we can likely agree that ML/AI models trained on past and present datasets will not be adequate to make reliable predictions into the future. This is true for water cycling, as well as biogeochemistry and other Earth system components and behaviors. Additionally, ML/AI models are inherently non-physical. Despite the flourishing success of ML/AI in many applications, such as computer vision, natural language process, and gaming, even the most sophisticated AI models don’t understand the very basic physical laws. Therefore, a natural question is: Can we trust ML/AI based predictions of Earth system behaviors that are fundamentally driven by physical laws? So, are physics models with meticulous process representation a better choice? Not exactly. Physical models, when firmly rooted in first principles, work great at predicting behaviors of systems with a well-defined set of boundary conditions and variables. However, as a complex system, the number of parameters and the degree of complexity and dynamics in processes, coupling, and scale dependent emergent behaviors make the Earth system behaviors very challenging to predict with physical models composed of deterministic laws. In addition, due to the lack of fundamental understandings, physical models often implement empirical correlations derived from observations with biases from locality of data generation. Because correlation is not necessarily causation or comply with first principles, scaling of model predictions beyond locality is often invalid. Beyond the limitation of models, physics or AI, our knowledge of the Earth system is limited by the lack of observational technologies and resources. Insufficient data density, dimensionality and diversity only offer a sliced (or projected) view of the Earth system, e.g. Plato’s Cave analogy, limiting our capability to better understand and represent fundamental processes in models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Precise orbit determination for NASA's earth observing system using GPS (Global Positioning System)

An application of a precision orbit determination technique for NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) using the Global Positioning System (GPS) is described. This technique allows the geometric information from measurements of GPS carrier phase and P-code pseudo-range to be exploited while minimizing requirements for precision dynamical modeling. The method combines geometric and dynamic information to determine the spacecraft trajectory; the weight on the dynamic information is controlled by adjusting fictitious spacecraft accelerations in three dimensions which are treated as first order exponentially time correlated stochastic processes. By varying the time correlation and uncertainty of the stochastic accelerations, the technique can range from purely geometric to purely dynamic. Performance estimates for this technique as applied to the orbit geometry planned for the EOS platforms indicate that decimeter accuracies for EOS orbit position may be obtainable. The sensitivity of the predicted orbit uncertainties to model errors for station locations, nongravitational platform accelerations, and Earth gravity is also presented.

Williams, B. G.↗

Evaluating three evapotranspiration estimates from model of different complexity over China using the ILAMB benchmarking system

The land surface models range in complexity of terrestrial evapotranspiration, yet it is unknown how model complexity translates to accuracy of modeled evapotranspiration estimates. Here, we use the International Land Model Benchmarking system to assess ET estimates from three models of varying complexity driven by the same forcing datasets: an earth system model, a terrestrial biosphere model, and a stand-alone ET model. The performance assessment includes both temporal and spatial evaluation, and different plant functional types across China. Our results indicate that the most complex model, an earth system model, performed best against the benchmarking datasets and metrics. Terrestrial biosphere model performed best in simulating inter-annual variability of ET, while earth system model performed best in simulating the seasonal cycle. The more complex models (earth system model and terrestrial biosphere model) perform better in forest, shrub and crop ecosystems, while the simpler model (stand-alone ET model) perform better in grass ecosystems. Our study demonstrates the impact of model complexity on ET estimates and highlights directions for future ET model improvements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Earth Observing System overview

The paper discusses major objectives and the primary components of the Earth Observing System (EOS), an integrated scientific observing system which will carry out remote sensing measurements for at least 15 years, providing comprehensive data andinformation in support of NASA's Mission to Planet Earth and the international Global Change Research Program. Particular attention is given to the functions of 18 instruments selected for EOS for the definition-phase investigations and to the mission profile.

Walton, Barbara A.↗

Performance of Versions 1,2 and 3 of the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) Chemistry-Climate Model (CCM)

Version 1 of the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOS CCM) was used in the first CCMVa1 model evaluation and forms the basis for several studies of links between ozone and the circulation. That version of the CCM was based on the GEOS-4 GCM. Versions 2 and 3 of the GEOS CCM are based on the GEOS-5 GCM, which retains the "Lin-Rood" dynamical core but has a totally different set of physical parameterizatiOns to GEOS-4. In Version 2 of the GEOS CCM the Goddard stratospheric chemistry module is retained. Difference between Versions 1 and 2 thus reflect the physics changes of the underlying GCMs. Several comparisons between these two models are made, several of which reveal improvements in Version 2 (including a more realistic representation of the interannual variability of the Antarctic vortex). In Version 3 of the GEOS CCM, the stratospheric chemistry mechanism is replaced by the "GMI COMBO" code that includes tropospheric chemistry and different computational approaches. An advantage of this model version. is the reduction of high ozone biases that prevail at low chlorine loadings in Versions 1 and 2. This poster will compare and contrast various aspects of the three model versions that are relevant for understanding interactions between ozone and climate.

Pawson, Steven↗

Taming Big Data Variety in the Earth Observing System Data and Information System

Although the volume of the remote sensing data managed by the Earth Observing System Data and Information System is formidable, an oft-overlooked challenge is the variety of data. The diversity in satellite instruments, science disciplines and user communities drives cost as much or more as the data volume. Several strategies are used to tame this variety: data allocation to distinct centers of expertise; a common metadata repository for discovery, data format standards and conventions; and services that further abstract the variations in data.

Information Systems↗

Earth Observing System Covariance Realism Updates

This presentation will be given at the International Earth Science Constellation Mission Operations Working Group meetings June 13-15, 2017 to discuss the Earth Observing System Covariance Realism updates.

realism↗