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A Global Aerosol Model Forecast for the ACE-Asia Field Experiment

We present the results of aerosol forecast during the Aerosol Characterization Experiment (ACE-Asia) field experiment in spring 2001, using the Georgia Tech/Goddard Global Ozone Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) model and the meteorological forecast fields from the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The aerosol model forecast provides direct information on aerosol optical thickness and concentrations, enabling effective flight planning, while feedbacks from measurements constantly evaluate the model, making successful model improvements. We verify the model forecast skill by comparing model predicted total aerosol extinction, dust, sulfate, and SO2 concentrations with those quantities measured by the C-130 aircraft during the ACE-Asia intensive operation period. The GEOS DAS meteorological forecast system shows excellent skills in predicting winds, relative humidity, and temperature for the ACE-Asia experiment area as well as for each individual flight, with skill scores usually above 0.7. The model is also skillful in forecast of pollution aerosols, with most scores above 0.5. The model correctly predicted the dust outbreak events and their trans-Pacific transport, but it constantly missed the high dust concentrations observed in the boundary layer. We attribute this missing dust source to the desertification regions in the Inner Mongolia Province in China, which have developed in recent years but were not included in the model during forecasting. After incorporating the desertification sources, the model is able to reproduce the observed high dust concentrations at low altitudes over the Yellow Sea. Two key elements for a successful aerosol model forecast are correct source locations that determine where the emissions take place, and realistic forecast winds and convection that determine where the aerosols are transported. We demonstrate that our global model can not only account for the large-scale intercontinental transport, but also produce the small-scale spatial and temporal variations that are adequate for aircraft measurements planning.

Chin, Mian↗

How Consistent are Recent Variations in the Tropical Energy and Water Cycle Resolved by Satellite Measurements?

One notable aspect of Earth's climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. One question is 'How consistent, physically, are these diverse remotely-sensed data sets'? The answer is of crucial importance to understanding climate processes, improving physical models, and improving remote sensing algorithms. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project 'FD' radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Full and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NASA/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. We also employ precipitation measurements from the Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP) and the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM). Finally, ocean evaporation estimates from the Special Sensor Microwave Imager (SSM/I) are considered as well as derived evaporation from the NCAR/NCEP Reanalysis. Additional information is included in the original extended abstract.

Robertson, F. R.↗

CERES ERBE-like Monthly Regional Averages (ES-9) in HDF (CERES:CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition2)

The ERBE-like Monthly Regional Averages (ES-9) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The ES-9 is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave and longwave fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) from the CERES ES-8 product for a month are sorted by 2.5-degree spatial regions, by day number, and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-day-hour bin is determined and recorded on the ES-9 along with other flux statistics and scene information. For each region, the daily average flux is estimated from an algorithm that uses the available hourly data, scene identification data, and diurnal models. This algorithm is 'like' the algorithm used for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The ES-9 also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average for each region. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The following CERES ES9 data sets are currently available: CER_ES9_FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition2 CER_ES9_PFM+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES9_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES9_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES9_FM1+FM3_Edition2 CER_ES9_FM1+FM4_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2000-03-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Longitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 km - < 500 km or approximately 2.5 degrees - < 5.0 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=hourly, daily, monthly; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily, Daily - < Weekly, Monthly - < Annual].

CLEAR-SKY ALBEDO↗

Interannual Variability in Surface LW Fluxes Over the Tropical Oceans As Seen in ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB Data Sets

One notable aspect of Earth s climate is that although the planet appears to be very close to radiative balance at top-of-atmosphere (TOA), the atmosphere itself and underlying surface are not. Profound exchanges of energy between the atmosphere and oceans, land and cryosphere occur over a range of time scales. Recent evidence from broadband satellite measurements suggests that even these TOA fluxes contain some detectable variations. Our ability to measure and reconstruct radiative fluxes at the surface and at the top of atmosphere is improving rapidly. In this work we will evaluate two recently released estimates of radiative fluxes, focusing primarily on surface estimates. The International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project FD radiative flux profiles are available from mid-1 983 to near present and have been constructed by driving the radiative transfer physics from the Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) global model with ISCCP clouds and TOVS (TIROS Operational Vertical Sounder)thermodynamic profiles. Fu!l and clear sky SW and LW fluxes are produced. A similar product from the NASA/GEWEX Surface Radiation Budget Project using different radiative flux codes and thermodynamics from the NAS/Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-1) assimilation model makes a similar calculation of surface fluxes. However this data set currently extends only through 1995. Significant differences in both interannual variability as well as trends are found between among these data sets. For radiative fluxes these differences are traced to TOVS thermodynamic soundings used to drive the ISCCP-FD calculations. Errors in near surface temperature and precipitable water cascade into ISCCP upward and downward IR flux components, demonstrably affecting interannual variability. Revised estimates of clear-sky fluxes over ocean are made using statistical algorithms and water vapor from the (SSM/I) Special Sensor Microwave Imager. These calculations show strong near-surface water vapor feedback over the tropical oceans in association with SST changes. However, it is also shown that ISCCP longwave cloud forcing, common to both the ISCCP-FD and GEWEX SRB retrievals, is the main driver of a long-term decrease in net LW flux to the surface during the near-20 year period covered by these revised estimates.

Robertson, F. R.↗

A Model Study of the Impact of Source Gas Changes on the Stratosphere for 1850-2100

The long term stratospheric impacts due to emissions of CO2, CH4, N2O, and ozone depleting substances (ODSs) are investigated using an updated version of the Goddard two-dimensional (2D) model. Perturbation simulations with the ODSs, CO2, CH4, and N2O varied individually are performed to isolate the relative roles of these gases in driving stratospheric changes over the 1850-2100 time period. We also show comparisons with observations and the God- 40 dard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model simulations for the time period 1970-2100 to illustrate that the 2D model captures the basic processes responsible for longterm stratospheric change. The 2D simulations indicate that prior to 1940, the 45 ozone increases due to CO2 and CH4 loading outpace the ozone losses due to increasing N2O and carbon tetrachloride (CCl4) emissions, so that ozone reaches a broad maximum during the 1920s-1930s. This preceeds the significant ozone depletion during approx. 1960-2050 driven by the ODS loading. During the latter half of the 21st century as ODS emissions diminish, CO2, N2O, and CH4 loading will all have significant impacts on global total ozone based on the IPCC AIB (medium) scenario, with CO2 having the largest individual effect. Sensitivity tests illustrate that due to the strong chemical interaction between methane and chlorine, the CH4 impact on total ozone becomes significantly more positive with larger ODS loading. The model simulations also show that changes in stratospheric temperature, Brewer-Dobson circulation (BDC), and age of air during 1850-2100 are controlled mainly by the CO2 and ODS loading. The simulated acceleration of the BDC causes the age of air to decrease by approx. 1 year from 1860-2100. The corresponding photochemical lifetimes of N2O, CFCl3, CF2Cl2, and CCl4 decrease by 11-13% during 1960-2100 due to the acceleration of the BDC, with much smaller lifetime changes 4%) caused by changes in the photochemical loss rates.

Fleming, E. L.↗

Middle Atmosphere Response to Different Descriptions of the 11-Year Solar Cycle in Spectral Irradiance in a Chemistry-Climate Model

The 11-year solar cycle in solar spectral irradiance (SSI) inferred from measurements by the SOlar Radiation & Climate Experiment (SORCE) suggests a much larger variation in the ultraviolet than previously accepted. We present middle atmosphere ozone and temperature responses to the solar cycles in SORCE SSI and the ubiquitous Naval Research Laboratory (NRL) SSI reconstruction using the Goddard Earth Observing System chemistry-climate model (GEOS CCM). The results are largely consistent with other recent modeling studies. The modeled ozone response is positive throughout the stratosphere and lower mesosphere using the NRL SSI, while the SORCE SSI produces a response that is larger in the lower stratosphere but out of phase with respect to total solar irradiance above 45 km. The modeled responses in total ozone are similar to those derived from satellite and ground-based measurements, 3-6 Dobson Units per 100 units of 10.7-cm radio flux (F10.7) in the tropics. The peak zonal mean tropical temperature response 50 using the SORCE SSI is nearly 2 K per 100 units 3 times larger than the simulation using the NRL SSI. The GEOS CCM and the Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) 2-D coupled model are used to examine how the SSI solar cycle affects the atmosphere through direct solar heating and photolysis processes individually. Middle atmosphere ozone is affected almost entirely through photolysis, whereas the solar cycle in temperature is caused both through direct heating and photolysis feedbacks, processes that are mostly linearly separable. Further, the net ozone response results from the balance of ozone production at wavelengths less than 242 nm and destruction at longer wavelengths, coincidentally corresponding to the wavelength regimes of the SOLar STellar Irradiance Comparison Experiment (SOLSTICE) and Spectral Irradiance Monitor (SIM) on SORCE, respectively. A higher wavelength-resolution analysis of the spectral response could allow for a better prediction of the atmospheric response to arbitrary SSI variations.

Swartz, W. H.↗

Angular Distribution Models for Top-of-Atmosphere Radiative Flux Estimation from the Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System Instrument on the Terra Satellite: Methodology - Part 1

The Clouds and Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) provides coincident global cloud and aerosol properties together with reflected solar, emitted terrestrial longwave and infrared window radiative fluxes. These data are needed to improve our understanding and modeling of the interaction between clouds, aerosols and radiation at the top of the atmosphere, surface, and within the atmosphere. This paper describes the approach used to estimate top-of-atmosphere (TOA) radiative fluxes from instantaneous CERES radiance measurements on the Terra satellite. A key component involves the development of empirical angular distribution models (ADMs) that account for the angular dependence of Earth's radiation field at the TOA. The CERES Terra ADMs are developed using 24 months of CERES radiances, coincident cloud and aerosol retrievals from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS), and meteorological parameters from the Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMA0) s Goddard Earth Observing System DAS (GEOS-DAS V4.0.3) product. Scene information for the ADMs is from MODIS retrievals and GEOS-DAS V4.0.3 properties over ocean, land, desert and snow, for both clear and cloudy conditions. Because the CERES Terra ADMs are global, and far more CERES data is available on Terra than was available from CERES on the Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM), the methodology used to define CERES Terra ADMs is different in many respects from that used to develop CERES TRMM ADMs, particularly over snow/sea-ice, under cloudy conditions, and for clear scenes over land and desert.

Loeb, N. G.↗

CERES ERBE-like Monthly Regional Averages (ES-9) in HDF (CER_ES9_FM1+FM3_Edition2)

The ERBE-like Monthly Regional Averages (ES-9) product contains a month of space and time averaged Clouds and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) data for a single scanner instrument. The ES-9 is also produced for combinations of scanner instruments. All instantaneous shortwave and longwave fluxes at the Top-of-the-Atmosphere (TOA) from the CERES ES-8 product for a month are sorted by 2.5-degree spatial regions, by day number, and by the local hour of observation. The mean of the instantaneous fluxes for a given region-day-hour bin is determined and recorded on the ES-9 along with other flux statistics and scene information. For each region, the daily average flux is estimated from an algorithm that uses the available hourly data, scene identification data, and diurnal models. This algorithm is 'like' the algorithm used for the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment (ERBE). The ES-9 also contains hourly average fluxes for the month and an overall monthly average for each region. These average fluxes are given for both clear-sky and total-sky scenes. The following CERES ES9 data sets are currently available: CER_ES9_FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_PFM+FM1_Edition2 CER_ES9_PFM+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_TRMM-PFM_Edition1 CER_ES9_TRMM-PFM_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition1 CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition1 CER_ES9_FM1+FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition2 CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition1 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition1 CER_ES9_FM1+FM2+FM3+FM4_Edition1 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition2 CER_ES9_FM1+FM3_Edition2 CER_ES9_FM1+FM4_Edition2 CER_ES9_Aqua-FM3_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Aqua-FM4_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Terra-FM1_Edition1-CV CER_ES9_Terra-FM2_Edition1-CV. [Location=GLOBAL] [Temporal_Coverage: Start_Date=1998-01-01; Stop_Date=2005-12-31] [Spatial_Coverage: Southernmost_Latitude=-90; Northernmost_Latitude=90; Westernmost_Longitude=-180; Easternmost_Longitude=180] [Data_Resolution: Latitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Longitude_Resolution=2.5 degree; Horizontal_Resolution_Range=250 km - < 500 km or approximately 2.5 degrees - < 5.0 degrees; Temporal_Resolution=hourly, daily, monthly; Temporal_Resolution_Range=Hourly - < Daily, Daily - < Weekly, Monthly - < Annual].

ERBE SCENE ID↗

Sensitivity of the Atmospheric Response to Warm Pool El Nino Events to Modeled SSTs and Future Climate Forcings

Warm pool El Nino (WPEN) events are characterized by positive sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies in the central equatorial Pacific. Under present-day climate conditions, WPEN events generate poleward propagating wavetrains and enhance midlatitude planetary wave activity, weakening the stratospheric polar vortices. The late 21st century extratropical atmospheric response to WPEN events is investigated using the Goddard Earth Observing System Chemistry-Climate Model (GEOSCCM), version 2. GEOSCCM simulations are forced by projected late 21st century concentrations of greenhouse gases (GHGs) and ozone-depleting substances (ODSs) and by SSTs and sea ice concentrations from an existing ocean-atmosphere simulation. Despite known ocean-atmosphere model biases, the prescribed SST fields represent a best estimate of the structure of late 21st century WPEN events. The future Arctic vortex response is qualitatively similar to that observed in recent decades but is weaker in late winter. This response reflects the weaker SST forcing in the Nino 3.4 region and subsequently weaker Northern Hemisphere tropospheric teleconnections. The Antarctic stratosphere does not respond to WPEN events in a future climate, reflecting a change in tropospheric teleconnections: The meridional wavetrain weakens while a more zonal wavetrain originates near Australia. Sensitivity simulations show that a strong poleward wavetrain response to WPEN requires a strengthening and southeastward extension of the South Pacific Convergence Zone; this feature is not captured by the late 21st century modeled SSTs. Expected future increases in GHGs and decreases in ODSs do not affect the polar stratospheric responses to WPEN.

stratosphere↗

Orbital Noise in the Earth System is a Common Cause of Climate and Greenhouse-Gas Fluctuation

The mismatch between fossil isotopic data and climate models known as the cool-tropic paradox implies that either the data are flawed or we understand very little about the climate models of greenhouse warming. Here we question the validity of the climate models on the scientific background of orbital noise in the Earth system. Our study shows that the insolation pulsation induced by orbital noise is the common cause of climate change and atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and methane. In addition, we find that the intensity of the insolation pulses is dependent on the latitude of the Earth. Thus, orbital noise is the key to understanding the troubling paradox in climate models.

Liu, H. S.↗

Chapter 10 - Remote Sensing Measurements of Aerosol Properties

Satellite instruments have proven especially capable at monitoring the quantity of airborne particles in columns of atmosphere, globally. This chapter describes the principles of satellite measurements and retrieval algorithms, and surveys current instruments and their capabilities. We outline the issues associated with retrieval algorithms, such as surface characterization and aerosol proximity to clouds, and the challenges with interpretation of the results. The relationship between measured aerosol properties and climate-relevant aerosol properties simulated in models is outlined, as well as how measurements are used to evaluate models. Most space-based aerosol instruments are passive sensors that measure reflected sunlight at multiple wavelengths, some at multiple viewing angles. A few are active sensors that send out their own laser light and measure the returned signal. Except when clouds are present, the excess amount of light scattered back to space, beyond that expected from the surface and atmospheric gas, is attributed to aerosol. Satellite measurements are used in many ways in aerosol research. They often provide the only method for monitoring hazardous phenomena such as major wildfire and volcanic eruption plumes, especially in remote areas. Stable, long-term, near-global-scale satellite data records make it possible to identify regional and global aerosol trends. Aerosol radiative effects on climate can be quantified on a near-global scale and used to estimate the strength of aerosol–radiation and aerosol–cloud interactions as well as to evaluate climate model simulations of these interactions. Aerosol-type mapping from satellite imagery is helpful for source attribution, model validation, and to constrain particle light-absorption properties that are essential for radiative forcing calculations. The range of aerosol properties retrieved from satellite observations has grown considerably since the first global estimates of aerosol optical depth (τ a) over ocean were made in the late 1970s. Methods for retrieving particle size and light-absorption properties were explored in the 1990s using multispectral, multi-angle observations, and polarization in visible and near-infrared wavelengths. Sensitivity to particle light absorption, primarily from black or brown carbon content, improved with the inclusion of UV channels, and sensitivity to very thin aerosol layers in the upper troposphere and lower stratosphere was advanced with the use of limb-sounding instruments and active sensors. There are limitations to every measurement technique, including satellite aerosol remote sensing. For wide-swath, passive instruments, aerosol retrievals near clouds can present substantial challenges as far as 15 km away due to cloud-scattered light contaminating the signal. In nearly all cases, retrievals over bright snow and ice surfaces are precluded because surface reflectance uncertainties can overwhelm the aerosol signal. Similarly, meteorological cloud is identified and masked out where possible. Data from passive sensors also lack vertical resolution except those that view toward the limb or where multi-angle imagery is acquired over plumes from wildfires, erupting volcanoes, and wind-blown dust. Yet, passive sensors provide vastly more coverage than the active instruments that mitigate these issues. Particle microphysical information is qualitative from all remote sensing techniques, relying on proxies to infer particle composition, hygroscopicity, and the amount of light-absorbing material. Further, particles smaller than about 200 nm diameter cannot be distinguished from atmospheric gas molecules with remote sensing, which hinders studies of cloud condensation nuclei and their effects on clouds. Most satellite instruments dedicated to aerosol observations are in low-Earth, near-polar, sun-synchronous orbits, which means they cross the equator at the same local time each day. Most are set on cycles that repeat approximately every 16 days, which makes it difficult to monitor aerosol evolution locally. Geostationary satellites make it possible to observe changes occurring from minutes to hours over regions up to 8000 km in size, but lack coverage of high latitudes, and often provide more limited constraints on aerosol properties. Ground-truth data are vital for satellite aerosol-retrieval validation. The AErosol RObotic NETwork (AERONET) of sun photometers was created in 1993 and has become an established global network of over 350 instruments for validating satellite measurements. The network, as well as global networks of ground-based lidars, solar flux radiometers and other sun photometers, are widely used for evaluating global satellite retrievals and model simulations. NASA's Earth Observing System (EOS) program beginning in 1999 led to improvements in reliability, spatial resolution, and spectral resolution (and hence, to improved particle size discrimination and light absorption properties). Satellite payloads include advanced broad-swath and multi-angle imagers, along with the first space-based active sensor focused largely on long-term aerosol monitoring. Since about 2002, Europe's SENTINEL and operational meteorological satellite fleets are also providing sustained aerosol observations, with planned continuation until at least 2030. Satellite remote sensing instruments offer valuable data for evaluating aerosol representations in global climate models. They have been used to assess aerosol optical and physical properties, trends and distributions, and are applied increasingly as direct model constraints in data assimilation to create global aerosol reanalysis products. Aerosol optical depth is the most common quantity adopted for routine model evaluation, including multiwavelength data to loosely constrain particle-size distributions. These evaluations of multiple models have revealed general biases in their regional aerosol amounts and seasonal patterns of transport and removal. Although satellite measurements have near-global coverage, substantial errors can be introduced into the model observation comparison unless attention is paid to spatial and temporal collocation, cloud screening, subgrid-scale variability, and measurement uncertainties that vary with retrieval conditions.

aerosol properties↗

Atmospheric Models for Aeroentry and Aeroassist

Eight destinations in the Solar System have sufficient atmosphere for aeroentry, aeroassist, or aerobraking/aerocapture: Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, plus Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune have been developed for use in NASA s systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications. Development has begun on a similar atmospheric model for Venus. An important capability of these models is simulation of quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Characteristics of these atmospheric models are compared, and example applications for aerocapture are presented. Recent Titan atmospheric model updates are discussed, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Probe entry at Titan. Recent and planned updates to the Mars atmospheric model, in support of future Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies, are also presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

Atmospheric Models for Aeroentry and Aeroassist

Eight destinations in the Solar System have sufficient atmosphere for aeroentry, aeroassist, or aerobraking/aerocapture: Venus, Earth, Mars, Jupiter, Saturn, Uranus, and Neptune, plus Saturn's moon Titan. Engineering-level atmospheric models for Earth, Mars, Titan, and Neptune have been developed for use in NASA's systems analysis studies of aerocapture applications. Development has begun on a similar atmospheric model for Venus. An important capability of these models is simulation of quasi-random perturbations for Monte Carlo analyses in developing guidance, navigation and control algorithms, and for thermal systems design. Characteristics of these atmospheric models are compared, and example applications for aerocapture are presented. Recent Titan atmospheric model updates are discussed, in anticipation of applications for trajectory and atmospheric reconstruct of Huygens Probe entry at Titan. Recent and planned updates to the Mars atmospheric model, in support of future Mars aerocapture systems analysis studies, are also presented.

Justus, C. G.↗

Transfer of solar radiation in the atmosphere

Current needs in the field of atmospheric radiative transfer include the development and validation of fast but accurate calculation techniques for use in climate modeling. Progress toward meeting these needs can be made by application of existing computational techniques and use of observational data for radiation transfer across the earth-atmosphere system boundaries. In this study radiative transfer model simulations are compared to satellite observations of reflected solar radiation. Calculations are presented from both detailed and approximate transfer models for the solar radiation reflected from the earth-atmosphere system. These calculations are compared with the measurements made by the Earth Radiation Budget (ERB) experiment on Nimbus 6 in August 1975. Results show good agreement between simulations and observations.

Suttles, J. T.↗

21st Century Trends in Antarctic Temperature and Polar Stratospheric Cloud (PSC) Area in the GEOS Chemistry-Climate Model

This study examines trends in Antarctic temperature and APSC, a temperature proxy for the area of polar stratospheric clouds, in an ensemble of Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) chemistry-climate model (CCM) simulations of the 21st century. A selection of greenhouse gas, ozone-depleting substance, and sea surface temperature scenarios is used to test the trend sensitivity to these parameters. One scenario is used to compare temperature trends in two versions of the GEOS CCM. An extended austral winter season is examined in detail. In May, June, and July, the expected future increase in CO2-related radiative cooling drives temperature trends in the Antarctic lower stratosphere. At 50 hPa, a 1.3 K cooling is expected between 2000 and 2100. Ozone levels increase, despite this robust cooling signal and the consequent increase in APSC, suggesting the enhancement of stratospheric transport in future. In the lower stratosphere, the choice of climate change scenarios does not affect the magnitude of the early winter cooling. Midwinter temperature trends are generally small. In October, APSC trends have the same sign as the prescribed halogen trends. That is, there are negative APSC trends in "grealistic future" simulations, where halogen loading decreases in accordance with the Montreal Protocol and CO2 continues to increase. In these simulations, the speed of ozone recovery is not influenced by either the choice of sea surface temperature and greenhouse gas scenarios or by the model version.

Hurwitz, M. M.↗

Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink

With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.

Weir, B.↗

Evaluation of GEOS-5 Sulfur Dioxide Simulations During the Frostburg, MD 2010 Field Campaign.

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a major atmospheric pollutant with a strong anthropogenic component mostly produced by the combustion of fossil fuel and other industrial activities. As a precursor of sulfate aerosols that affect climate, air quality, and human health, this gas needs to be monitored on a global scale. Global climate and chemistry models including aerosol processes along with their radiative effects are important tools for climate and air quality research. Validation of these models against in-situ and satellite measurements is essential to ascertain the credibility of these models and to guide model improvements. In this study the Goddard Chemistry, Aerosol, Radiation, and Transport (GOCART) module running on-line inside the Goddard Earth Observing System version 5 (GEOS-5) model is used to simulate aerosol and SO2 concentrations. Data taken in November 2010 over Frostburg, Maryland during an SO2 field campaign involving ground instrumentation and aircraft are used to evaluate GEOS-5 simulated SO2 concentrations. Preliminary data analysis indicated the model overestimated surface SO2 concentration, which motivated the examination of mixing processes in the model and the specification of SO2 anthropogenic emission rates. As a result of this analysis, a revision of anthropogenic emission inventories in GEOS-5 was implemented, and the vertical placement of SO2 sources was updated. Results show that these revisions improve the model agreement with observations locally and in regions outside the area of this field campaign. In particular, we use the ground-based measurements collected by the United States Environmental Protection Agency (US EPA) for the year 2010 to evaluate the revised model simulations over North America.

Air Quality Campaign↗

Dynamics of the Final Stages of Terrestrial Planet Growth and the Formation of the Earth-Moon System

An overview of current theories of star and planet formation, with emphasis on terrestrial planet accretion and the formation of the Earth-Moon system is presented. These models predict that rocky planets should form around most single stars, although it is possible that in some cases such planets are lost to orbital decay within the protoplanetary disk. The frequency of formation of gas giant planets is more difficult to predict theoretically. Terrestrial planets are believed to grow via pairwise accretion until the spacing of planetary orbits becomes large enough that the configuration is stable for the age of the system. Giant impacts during the final stages of growth can produce large planetary satellites, such as Earth's Moon. Giant planets begin their growth like terrestrial planets, but they become massive enough that they are able to accumulate substantial amounts of gas before the protoplanetary disk dissipates.

Lissauer, Jack J.↗