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NASA NTRS2012

Assessing the Association Between Asthma and Air Quality in the Presence of Wildfires

Asthma hospital/emergency room (patient) data are used as the foundation for creating a health outcome indicator of human response to environmental air quality. Daily U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) Air Quality System (AQS) fine particulates (PM2.5) ground data and the U.S. National Aeronautical Space Administration (NASA) MODIS aerosol optical depth (AOD) data were acquired and processed for years of 2007 and 2008. Figure 1 shows the PM2.5 annual mean composite of all the 2007 B-spline daily surfaces. Initial models for predicting the number of weekly asthma cases within a Florida county has focused on environmental variables. Weekly maximums of PM2.5, relative humidity, and the proportions of the county with smoke and fire were the environmental variables included in the model. Cosine and sine functions of time were used to account for seasonality in asthma cases. Counties were considered to be random effects, thereby adjusting for differences in socio ]demographics and other factors. The 2007 predictions for Miami ]Dade county when using B ]splines PM2.5 are displayed in Figures 2.

Young, L. J.↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health (LSAH) Project

From 1989-2010 NASA conducted a research study, the Longitudinal Study of Astronaut Health, to investigate the incidence of acute and chronic morbidity and mortality in astronauts and to determine whether their occupational exposures were associated with increased risk of death or disability. In 2004, the Institute of Medicine recommended that NASA convert the longitudinal study into an occupational health surveillance program and in 2010, NASA initiated the Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health project. The new program collects data on astronaut workplace exposures, especially those occurring in the training and space flight environments, and conducts operational and health care analyses to look for trends in exposure and health outcomes. Astronaut selection and retention medical standards are rigorous, requiring an extensive clinical testing regimen. As a result, this employee population has contributed to a large set of health data available for analyses. Astronauts represent a special population with occupational exposures not typically experienced by other employee populations. Additionally, astronauts are different from the general population in terms of demographic and physiologic characteristics. The challenges and benefits of conducting health surveillance for an employee population with unique occupational exposures will be discussed. Several occupational surveillance projects currently underway to examine associations between astronaut workplace exposures and medical outcomes will be described.

Bopp, Eugenia↗
NASA NTRS2013

The Science of Gravitational Waves with Space Observatories

After decades of effort, direct detection of gravitational waves from astrophysical sources is on the horizon. Aside from teaching us about gravity itself, gravitational waves hold immense promise as a tool for general astrophysics. In this talk I will provide an overview of the science enabled by a space-based gravitational wave observatory sensitive in the milli-Hertz frequency band including the nature and evolution of massive black holes and their host galaxies, the demographics of stellar remnant compact objects in the Milky Way, and the behavior of gravity in the strong-field regime. I will also summarize the current status of efforts in the US and Europe to implement a space-based gravitational wave observatory.

Thorpe, James Ira↗
NASA NTRS2014

Examining the Link Between Food Prices and Food Insecurity: a Multi-Level Analysis of Maize Price and Birthweight in Kenya

In developing countries where many poor people rely on rainfed, locally produced food for the majority of their caloric intake, shifts in climate and weather patterns can dramatically reduce agricultural productivity. The reduction in agricultural productivity reduces overall food availability and ultimately impacts food accessibility, putting millions of people at risk for malnutrition. In this project we focus on Kenya where roughly a third of households are food insecure. We examine the relationship of the price of maize and low birth weight to help quantify the impact of local food prices on one outcome of household food insecurity. Using spatially referenced data from recent Kenyan Demographic and Health Survey datasets, price data, livelihood information, and a remotely sensed-based measure of local growing season productivity, we develop a dataset linking pregnancies occurring from 2001 to 2008 to the spatially and temporally relevant maize price data. We construct several regression models to examine the impact of local maize prices and remotely sensed based estimates of crop production on infant birth weight - specifically low birth weight. The results of the models highlight the importance of including community crop production to evaluate maize price impacts on low birth weight outcomes. Also, because of the positive correlation between pre-pregnancy maize prices and birth weight, the results suggest that some households may benefit from high prices or that high prices may impact the number of conceptions. More generally, our work demonstrates that multilevel models that account for community-level variation are important for disentangling these complex relationships and can contribute to the discussion of how to design more effective food policies.

Low birth weight↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spacesuit Glove-Induced Hand Trauma and Analysis of Potentially Related Risk Variables

Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. Glove injuries, both anecdotal and recorded, have been reported during EVA training and flight persistently through NASA's history regardless of mission or glove model. Theories as to causation such as glove-hand fit are common but often lacking in supporting evidence. Previous statistical analysis has evaluated onycholysis in the context of crew anthropometry only (Opperman et al 2010). The purpose of this study was to analyze all injuries (as documented in the medical records) and available risk factor variables with the goal to determine engineering and operational controls that may reduce hand injuries due to the EVA glove in the future. A literature review and data mining study were conducted between 2012 and 2014. This study included 179 US NASA crew who trained or completed an EVA between 1981 and 2010 (crossing both Shuttle and ISS eras) and wore either the 4000 Series or Phase VI glove during Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit EVA training and flight. All injuries recorded in medical records were analyzed in their association to candidate risk factor variables. Those risk factor variables included demographic characteristics, hand anthropometry, glove fit characteristics, and training/EVA characteristics. Utilizing literature, medical records and anecdotal causation comments recorded in crewmember injury data, investigators were able to identify several risk factors associated with increased risk of glove related injuries. Prime among them were smaller hand anthropometry, duration of individual suited exposures, and improper glove-hand fit as calculated by the difference in the anthropometry middle finger length compared to the baseline EVA glove middle finger length.

McFarland, Shane M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Ocular Outcomes Comparison Between 14- and 70-day Head-down Tilt Bed Rest

INTRODUCTION: Ophthalmological changes, including optic disc edema with optic nerve sheath distension, posterior globe flattening with hyperopic shift, choroidal folds and cotton wool spots have been detected in some astronauts involved in long-duration spaceflights. (sup 1) It is hypothesized that elevated intracranial pressure resulting from microgravity-induced cephalad fluid shifts may be responsible for most of these findings. Head-down tilt bed rest (HTDBR) is a ground-based microgravity analog which also produces cephalad fluid shifts. It is conceivable that prolonged HDTBR exposure may induce ocular changes similar to those experienced in microgravity. Therefore, the purpose of the present study was to compare structural and functional ocular outcomes between 14- and 70-day HDTBR in healthy human subjects. It is hypothesized that 70-d HDTBR induced ocular changes of greater magnitude as compared to 14-d HDTBR. METHODS: Two HDTBR studies were conducted at the NASA Flight Analogs Research Unit, located at The University of Texas Medical Branch at Galveston, TX. Identical NASA standard screening procedures and BR conditions (e.g., strict sleep-wake cycle, standardized diet, continuous video monitoring) were implemented in both studies. Participants spent 14 and/or 70 consecutive days in a 6deg HDT position and did not engage in exercise. Subjects received weekly ocular examinations before, during, and after HDTBR. Ocular testing included: distance and near best-corrected visual acuity (BCVA), cycloplegic refraction, intraocular pressure (IOP) measurement, color vision, red dot test, modified Amsler grid test, confrontational visual field, color fundus photography and Spectral-domain OCT scans of the macula and the optic disc. Pre/post HDTBR differences between the two studies will be evaluated for BCVA, spherical equivalent, IOP, retinal nerve fiber layer (RNFL) thickness and macular OCT parameters. RESULTS: 16 (12 males and 4 females) and 6 (5 males and 1 female) subjects participated in the 14 and 70-day HDTBR studies, respectively. One subject participated in both studies. The demographic and ophthalmological characteristics of the 14-day HDTBR study have been presented elsewhere.2 In the 70- day study, subjects age averaged 39.5 +/- 7.8 years; pre- and post-HDTBR Goldmann IOP were, on average, 15.4 and 14.6 mmHg in the right eye, and 15.3 and 14.4 mmHg in the left eye, respectively; preand post-HDTBR Spectralis OCT (Heidelberg Engineering, GmbH, Heidelberg, Germany) average RNFL thickness were 103.8 and 106 μm in the right eye, and 103 and 104.3 μm in the left eye, respectively. In both studies, color vision, red dot test, modified Amsler grid test and confrontational visual field were within normal limits at all time points; no changes were detected on stereoscopic color optic disc photography. For the above outcomes, preliminary results of the pre/post HDTBR differences between the two studies will be presented at the 2015 Human Research Program Investigators' Workshop. CONCLUSIONS: Although 14-day HDTBR did not seem to induce clinically relevant ocular changes, (sup 2) a systematic evaluation and comparison with the 70-day HDTBR study results will elucidate whether the magnitude of ocular structural and functional changes is affected by the time spent in the recumbent position. Further research will also address the effects of integrated resistance and aerobic training during HDTBR on the ocular outcomes. REFERENCES: 1. Mader TH et al. Optic disc edema, globe flattening, choroidal folds, and hyperopic shifts observed in astronauts after long-duration space flight. Ophthalmology. 2011;118(10):2058-69. 2. Taibbi G et al. Ocular outcomes evaluation in a 14-day head-down bed rest study. Aviat Space Environ Med. 2014;85(10):983-92.

Cromwell, R.L.↗
NASA NTRS2014

Environmental Risk Factors and Child Nutritional Status and Survival in a Context of Climate Variability and Change

Much of the population in the developing world resides in rural areas, is dependent on local agriculture for survival, and thus directly subject to increasingly volatile and variable climatic patterns. Poverty limits options for adaptation to unpredictable weather and resultant food insecurity; these concerns are particularly salient in an era of climate change, which threatens to roll back years of development gains. Examining the association between the growing environment and child survival and nutrition is important in this context. Using NASA's satellite remote sensing data with Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) data from four West African countries (Mali, Burkina Faso, Guinea and Benin), we assess the association between a climate-related environmental variable (vegetation index - NDVI) and child survival and nutrition. NDVI had a positive association with child survival and nutrition in countries with a wide distribution of NDVI values. NDVI was more likely to be positively associated with wasting rather than stunting. We find that environmental factors can be important for child survival and nutrition outcomes in specific contexts. Additional research is needed to further explore the ways NDVI can be used to inform our understanding of the environment's impact on child survival and nutrition.

Environment↗
NASA NTRS2015

Spacesuit Glove-Induced Hand Trauma and Analysis of Potentially Related Risk Variables

Injuries to the hands are common among astronauts who train for extravehicular activity (EVA). When the gloves are pressurized, they restrict movement and create pressure points during tasks, sometimes resulting in pain, muscle fatigue, abrasions, and occasionally more severe injuries such as onycholysis. Glove injuries, both anecdotal and recorded, have been reported during EVA training and flight persistently through NASA's history regardless of mission or glove model. Theories as to causation such as glove-hand fit are common but often lacking in supporting evidence. Previous statistical analysis has evaluated onycholysis in the context of crew anthropometry only. The purpose of this study was to analyze all injuries (as documented in the medical records) and available risk factor variables with the goal to determine engineering and operational controls that may reduce hand injuries due to the EVA glove in the future. A literature review and data mining study were conducted between 2012 and 2014. This study included 179 US NASA crew who trained or completed an EVA between 1981 and 2010 (crossing both Shuttle and ISS eras) and wore either the 4000 Series or Phase VI glove during Extravehicular Mobility Unit (EMU) spacesuit EVA training and flight. All injuries recorded in medical records were analyzed in their association to candidate risk factor variables. Those risk factor variables included demographic characteristics, hand anthropometry, glove fit characteristics, and training/EVA characteristics. Utilizing literature, medical records and anecdotal causation comments recorded in crewmember injury data, investigators were able to identify several risk factors associated with increased risk of glove related injuries. Prime among them were smaller hand anthropometry, duration of individual suited exposures, and improper glove-hand fit as calculated by the difference in the anthropometry middle finger length compared to the baseline EVA glove middle finger length.

Charvat, Chacqueline M.↗
NASA NTRS2015

Municipality Level Simulations of Dengue Fever Incidence in Puerto Rico Using Ground Based and Remotely Sensed Climate Data

Dengue fever (DF) is caused by a virus transmitted between humans and Aedes genus mosquitoes through blood feeding. In recent decades incidence of the disease has drastically increased in the tropical Americas, culminating with the Pan American outbreak in 2010 which resulted in 1.7 million reported cases. In Puerto Rico dengue is endemic, however, there is significant inter‐annual, intraannual, and spatial variability in case loads. Variability in climate and the environment, herd immunity and virus genetics, and demographic characteristics may all contribute to differing patterns of transmission both spatially and temporally. Knowledge of climate influences on dengue incidence could facilitate development of early warning systems allowing public health workers to implement appropriate transmission intervention strategies. In this study, we simulate dengue incidence in several municipalities in Puerto Rico using population and meteorological data derived from ground based stations and remote sensing instruments. This data was used to drive a process based model of vector population development and virus transmission. Model parameter values for container composition, vector characteristics, and incubation period were chosen by employing a Monte Carlo approach. Multiple simulations were performed for each municipality and the results were compared with reported dengue cases. The best performing simulations were retained and their parameter values and meteorological input were compared between years and municipalities. Parameter values varied by municipality and year illustrating the complexity and sensitivity of the disease system. Local characteristics including the natural and built environment impact transmission dynamics and produce varying responses to meteorological conditions.

Remote Sensing↗
NASA NTRS2014

Using Satellite Remote Sensing and Household Survey Data to Assess Human Health and Nutrition Response to Environmental Change

Climate change and degradation of ecosystem services functioning may threaten the ability of current agricultural systems to keep up with demand for adequate and inexpensive food and for clean water, waste disposal and other broader ecosystem services. Human health is likely to be affected by changes occurring across multiple geographic and time scales. Impacts range from increasing transmissibility and the range of vector-borne diseases, such as malaria and yellow fever, to undermining nutrition through deleterious impacts on food production and concomitant increases in food prices. This paper uses case studies to describe methods that make use of satellite remote sensing and Demographic and Health Survey data to better understand individual-level human health and nutrition outcomes. By bringing these diverse datasets together, the connection between environmental change and human health outcomes can be described through new research and analysis.

Health↗
NASA NTRS2015

Holiday in Lights: Tracking Cultural Patterns in Demand for Energy Services

Successful climate change mitigation will involve not only technological innovation, but also innovation in how we understand the societal and individual behaviors that shape the demand for energy services. Traditionally, individual energy behaviors have been described as a function of utility optimization and behavioral economics, with price restructuring as the dominant policy lever. Previous research at the macro-level has identified economic activity, power generation and technology, and economic role as significant factors that shape energy use. However, most demand models lack basic contextual information on how dominant social phenomenon, the changing demographics of cities, and the sociocultural setting within which people operate, affect energy decisions and use patterns. Here we use high-quality Suomi-NPP VIIRS nighttime environmental products to: (1) observe aggregate human behavior through variations in energy service demand patterns during the Christmas and New Year's season and the Holy Month of Ramadan and (2) demonstrate that patterns in energy behaviors closely track sociocultural boundaries at the country, city, and district level. These findings indicate that energy decision making and demand is a sociocultural process as well as an economic process, often involving a combination of individual price-based incentives and societal-level factors. While nighttime satellite imagery has been used to map regional energy infrastructure distribution, tracking daily dynamic lighting demand at three major scales of urbanization is novel. This methodology can enrich research on the relative importance of drivers of energy demand and conservation behaviors at fine scales. Our initial results demonstrate the importance of seating energy demand frameworks in a social context.

VIIRS night sky↗
NASA NTRS2015

The Rapid Response Radiation Survey (R3S) Mission Using the HiSat Conformal Satellite Architecture

The Rapid Response Radiation Survey (R3S) experiment, designed as a quick turnaround mission to make radiation measurements in Low Earth Orbit (LEO), will fly as a hosted payload in partnership with NovaWurks using their Hyper-integrated Satlet (HISat) architecture. The need for the mission arises as the Nowcast of Atmospheric Ionization Radiation for Aviation Safety (NAIRAS) model moves from a research effort into an operational radiation assessment tool. Currently, airline professionals are the second largest demographic of radiation workers and to date their radiation exposure is undocumented in the USA. The NAIRAS model seeks to fill this information gap. The data collected by R3S, in addition to the complementary data from a NASA Langley Research Center (LaRC) atmospheric balloon mission entitled Radiation Dosimetry Experiment (RaD-X), will validate exposure prediction capabilities of NAIRAS. The R3S mission collects total dose and radiation spectrum measurements using a Teledyne μDosimeter and a Liulin-6SA2 LED spectrometer. These two radiation sensors provide a cross correlated radiometric measurement in combination with the Honeywell HMR2300 Smart Digital Magnetometer. The magnetometer assesses the Earth's magnetic field in the LEO environment and allows radiation dose to be mapped as a function of the Earth's magnetic shielding. R3S is also unique in that the radiation sensors will be exposed on the outer surface of the spacecraft, possibly making this the first measurements of the LEO radiation environment with bare sensors. Viability of R3S as an extremely fast turnaround mission is due, in part, to the nature of the robust, well-defined interfaces of the conformal satellite HiSat Architecture. The HiSat architecture, which was developed with the support of the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA's) Phoenix Program, enabled the R3S system to advance from the first concept to delivery of preliminary design review (PDR) level documents in 29 calendar days. The architecture allows for interface complexities between the specific devices and the satellite bus to be resolved in a standardized interface control document (ICD). The ICD provided a readymade framework to interface to the modular satellite bus. This modularity allowed for approximately 90% of the R3S system to be designed and fabricated in two months without constraint of the hosting satellite's development cycle. This paper discusses the development of the R3S experiment as made possible by use of the HiSat architecture. The system design and operational modes of the experiment are described, as well as the experiment interfaces to the HiSat satellite via the user defined adapter (UDA) provided by NovaWurks. This paper outlines the steps taken by the project to execute the R3S mission in the 4 months of design, build, and test. Additionally portrayed is the ground work done at LaRC to posture the organization for a fast response and the process by which the opportunity was identified as aligning with key strategic goals. Finally, a description of the engineering process is provided, including the use of facilitated rapid/concurrent engineering sessions, the associated documentation, and the review process employed.

Miller, Nathanael A.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Exploration Clinical Decision Support System: Medical Data Architecture

The Exploration Clinical Decision Support (ECDS) System project is intended to enhance the Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element for extended duration, deep-space mission planning in HRP. A major development guideline is the Risk of "Adverse Health Outcomes & Decrements in Performance due to Limitations of In-flight Medical Conditions". ECDS attempts to mitigate that Risk by providing crew-specific health information, actionable insight, crew guidance and advice based on computational algorithmic analysis. The availability of inflight health diagnostic computational methods has been identified as an essential capability for human exploration missions. Inflight electronic health data sources are often heterogeneous, and thus may be isolated or not examined as an aggregate whole. The ECDS System objective provides both a data architecture that collects and manages disparate health data, and an active knowledge system that analyzes health evidence to deliver case-specific advice. A single, cohesive space-ready decision support capability that considers all exploration clinical measurements is not commercially available at present. Hence, this Task is a newly coordinated development effort by which ECDS and its supporting data infrastructure will demonstrate the feasibility of intelligent data mining and predictive modeling as a biomedical diagnostic support mechanism on manned exploration missions. The initial step towards ground and flight demonstrations has been the research and development of both image and clinical text-based computer-aided patient diagnosis. Human anatomical images displaying abnormal/pathological features have been annotated using controlled terminology templates, marked-up, and then stored in compliance with the AIM standard. These images have been filtered and disease characterized based on machine learning of semantic and quantitative feature vectors. The next phase will evaluate disease treatment response via quantitative linear dimension biomarkers that enable image content-based retrieval and criteria assessment. In addition, a data mining engine (DME) is applied to cross-sectional adult surveys for predicting occurrence of renal calculi, ranked by statistical significance of demographics and specific food ingestion. In addition to this precursor space flight algorithm training, the DME will utilize a feature-engineering capability for unstructured clinical text classification health discovery. The ECDS backbone is a proposed multi-tier modular architecture providing data messaging protocols, storage, management and real-time patient data access. Technology demonstrations and success metrics will be finalized in FY16.

Biomedical support↗
NASA NTRS2017

Characterizing Fractures Across the Astronaut Corps: Preliminary Findings from Population-Level Analysis

Despite evidence of bone loss during spaceflight and operational countermeasures to mitigate this loss, the subsequent risk of fracture among astronauts is not known. The physiologic process of diminished bone density and bone recovery during or following spaceflight is multifactorial. Such factors as age, sex, fracture history, and others may combine to increase fracture risk among astronauts. As part of the 2016 Bone Research and Clinical Advisory Panel (RCAP), the authors analyzed data collected on 338 NASA astronauts to describe the demographics, bone-relevant characteristics, and fracture history of the astronaut population. The majority of the population are male (n=286, 84.6%), have flown at least one mission (n=306, 90.5%), and were between the ages of 30 and 49 at first mission (n=296, 96.7% of those with at least one mission). Of the 338 astronauts, 241 (71.3%) experienced a fracture over the course of their lifetime. One hundred and five (43.5%) of these 241 astronauts only experienced a fracture prior to being selected into the Astronaut Corps, whereas 53 (22.0%) only experienced a fracture after selection as an astronaut. An additional 80 astronauts (33.2%) had both pre- and post-selection fractures. The remaining 3 astronauts had a fracture of unknown date, which could not be categorized as pre- or post-selection. Among the 133 astronauts with at least one post-selection fracture, males comprised 90.2% (n=120) compared to 84.5% of the entire Corps, and females accounted for 9.8% (n=13) compared to 15.4% of the Corps. Ninety-seven of the 133 astronauts with post-selection fractures (72.9%) had one fracture event, 22 (16.5%) had two fractures, and 14 (10.5%) had three or more fractures. Some astronauts with multiple fractures suffered these in a single event, such as an automobile accident. The 133 astronauts with a post-selection fracture accounted for a total of 188 fracture events. One hundred and four (78.2%) of astronauts with post-selection fractures experienced those fractures following their first mission (mean 12.7 +/- 11.1 years following first mission; range 14.0 days - 50.6 years). Additional analyses are ongoing and include examination of fracture history, skeletal site, mechanism, and type of fracture, age at time of fracture, time from spaceflight to fracture, as well as multivariable analysis comparing fracture events to non-events. The results of such analyses may reveal trends in risk factors for fracture among the astronaut corps that have yet to be systematically described through a corps-wide approach.

Rossi, Meredith M.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Campaign 9 of the K2 Mission: Observational Parameters, Scientific Drivers, and Community Involvement for a Simultaneous Space- and Ground-based Microlensing Survey

K2ʼs Campaign 9 (K2C9) will conduct a approximately 3.7 sq. deg survey toward the Galactic bulge from 2016 April 22 through July 2 that will leverage the spatial separation between K2 and the Earth to facilitate measurement of the microlens parallax Pi(sub E) for approximately greater than 170 microlensing events. These will include several that are planetary in nature as well as many short-timescale microlensing events, which are potentially indicative of free-floating planets (FFPs). These satellite parallax measurements will in turn allow for the direct measurement of the masses of and distances to the lensing systems. In this article we provide an overview of the K2C9 space- and ground-based microlensing survey. Specifically, we detail the demographic questions that can be addressed by this program, including the frequency of FFPs and the Galactic distribution of exoplanets, the observational parameters of K2C9, and the array of resources dedicated to concurrent observations. Finally, we outline the avenues through which the larger community can become involved, and generally encourage participation in K2C9, which constitutes an important pathfinding mission and community exercise in anticipation of WFIRST.

K2s Campaign 9 (K2C9)↗
NASA NTRS2016

Urban Heat Wave Hazard Assessment

Heat waves are the largest cause of environment-related deaths globally. On average, over 6,000 people in the United States alone are hospitalized each summer due to excessive heat. Key elements leading to these disasters are elevated humidity and the urban heat island effect, which act together to increase apparent temperature and amplify the effects of a heat wave. Urban demographics and socioeconomic factors also play a role in determining individual risk. Currently, advisories of impending heat waves are often too generalized, with limited or no spatial variability over urban regions. This frequently contributes to a lack of specific response on behalf of the population. A goal of this project is to develop a product that has the potential to provide more specific heat wave guidance invoking greater awareness and action.

Urban↗
NASA NTRS2019

Field Evaluations of Sampling, Interviewing, and Flight Tracking of NASA's Low Boom Flight Demonstrator Aircraft

The first year’s effort identified sampling and interviewing as the principal risks to assessment of prompt reactions to overflights producing low-amplitude sonic booms. It also 1) established the utility of geo-information system-based route planning for LBFD flight missions, 2) developed and demonstrated a prototype of a geographically-distributed, Internet-enabled instrumentation system capable of wide-area tracking of LBFD aircraft in near-real time. The latter system permits synchronizing the conduct of interviews in multiple overflown communities with arrival times of shock waves at interviewing sites; and of measuring, archiving, and processing their acoustic signatures. Means were also recommended for constructing representative, telephone-based samples of eligible respondents living in households within carpet boom corridors adjacent to LBFD flight tracks, and for conducting interviews with cross-sectional (independent) samples of such respondents about their prompt reactions to exposure to low-amplitude sonic booms. A detailed study design was prepared and accepted by NASA for a set of single-contact attempt telephone interviews with a nationally representative sample of households. The study design focused on testing automated and live agent interview completion rates obtainable without callbacks. A minimal (two monitoring station) version of the aircraft tracking system was built and installed near a civil airport in a successful demonstration of the system’s ability to detect and track aircraft movements. The field exercise also demonstrated the ability of the system to capture the acoustic emissions of departing aircraft, and to serve aircraft position and sound level information to remote, geographically-distributed analysts in near-real time. Upon approval of OMB and IRB of the detailed study plan, a stratified, nationally representative sample of landline and wireless telephone-subscribing households was constructed. A total of 12,734 telephone interview contact attempts of the sort required by a straightforward cross-sectional study design were then made. These contact attempts demonstrated the impracticality of conducting a time-critical, cross-sectional study of prompt community response to low-amplitude sonic booms by means of “independent” (single contact attempt per respondent for each LBFD flight mission) telephone samples of respondents. The observed interview completion rates for these single telephone contact attempts were so low (~ 1% to 3% for automated and live agent interviews, respectively) that: 1) the representativeness of collected opinions would be susceptible to intuitive challenge as inadequate, even absent conclusive evidence of non-representativeness. Refuting challenges to representativeness would have to demonstrate that the composition of the actual sample did not differ from that of the target population, a task that is tantamount to proving a negative; 2) the information required to refute allegations of non-representativeness would require a questionnaire considerably lengthier than that required simply to determine the prevalence of boom-induced startle and annoyance. Such a questionnaire would have to inquire about potentially sensitive and intrusive matters, including respondents’ age, gender, education, employment, home ownership, income, ethnicity, family size, and other demographic factors; and 3) unreasonable numbers of attempts would be required to re-contact households with unsuccessful initial contact attempts, given the limited time available for doing so. For example, if about 500 completed interviews were desired in a supersonically overflown community, approximately 50,000 automated interview attempts would have to be made within ten to fifteen minutes of each LBFD overflight. Such large numbers of contact attempts could well exceed the numbers of households available for interview in areas of similar boom exposure levels in some communities near LBFD flight tracks. Such large numbers of interviews could be cost-effectively undertaken only by means of automated (i.e., outgoing interactive voice response) interviewing, a data collection method ill-suited for complex and sensitive questionnaire items. The infeasibility of independent sampling for evaluating prompt responses to LBFD overflights in a cross-sectional study is due in large part to simple non-response: that is, potential respondents – particularly those contacted on wireless telephones – refusing to answer calls with unfamiliar caller IDs. It is also due in part, however, to 1) the lack of time to attempt to contact the same respondent more than once within a few minutes after the arrival of a shock wave at the respondent’s location; and 2) the need to place calls during weekday/daytime hours, when response rates are notably lower than during evenings and weekends. Despite the poor interview completion rates achieved under the above constraints, cross sectional assessments of delayed reactions to LBFD overflights could still be feasible, if multiple attempts could be made to contact respondents during evening and weekend time periods, over extended time periods. Detailed plans for a longitudinal (panel) sample were developed as an alternative to a cross sectional sample design.

Fidell, Sanford↗
NASA NTRS2019

Multi-messenger Astrophysics with Pulsar Timing Arrays: Astro2020 Science White Paper

Pulsar timing arrays (PTAs) are on the verge of detecting low-frequency gravitational waves (GWs)from supermassive black hole binaries (SMBHBs). With continued observations of a large sampleof millisecond pulsars, PTAs will reach this major milestone within the next decade. Already,SMBHB candidates are being identied by electromagnetic surveys in ever-increasing numbers;upcoming surveys will enhance our ability to detect and verify candidates, and will be instrumentalin identifying the host galaxies of GW sources. Multi-messenger (GW and electromagnetic) obser-vations of SMBHBs will revolutionize our understanding of the co-evolution of SMBHs with theirhost galaxies, the dynamical interactions between binaries and their galactic environments, and thefundamental physics of accretion. Multi-messenger observations can also make SMBHBs `standardsirens' for cosmological distance measurements out to z ~ 0.5 LIGO has already ushered in break-through insights in our knowledge of black holes. The multi-messenger detection of SMBHBs withPTAs will be a breakthrough in the years 2020-2030 and beyond, and prepare us for LISA to helpcomplete our views of black hole demographics and evolution at higher redshifts.

Kelley, L. Z.↗