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At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Simulation study of chemo-mechanical impacts of CO 2 injection in morrow b sandstone reservoir

Here, this study investigates the impacts of geomechanical and geochemical changes on carbon storage in a partially depleted oil reservoir, using results from four different coupled simulation models. Models were used to examine the relative importance of storage mechanisms, and how changing reservoir parameters might affect these mechanisms through time. The study uses data from a Morrowan sandstone reservoir in the Farnsworth Unit (FWU), Ochiltree County, Texas which is currently undergoing CO 2 enhanced oil recovery (EOR). Partially depleted oil reservoirs such as the FWU offer attractive carbon utilization and/or storage targets because of existing infrastructure and economic benefits from incremental oil recovery as well as tax credits. However, prediction of storage capacity or long-term fluid migration in these fields can be difficult because of the wide variation in formation fluids and operational histories that may have undergone. CO 2 injection can cause complex geomechanical and geochemical responses in a reservoir as a result of interplay between dynamic changes in pore pressure, reservoir temperature, fluid composition, and interactions between formation fluids, CO 2 , and reservoir rock. Thus, multiple coupled numerical simulation models must be developed and used to more precisely understand what CO 2 storage mechanisms are most significant, as well as the long-term fate of the stored CO 2 . Our study used results from hydrodynamic, coupled hydro-geomechanical, coupled hydro-geochemical, and coupled hydro-geomechanical-geochemical models to examine how changes in geomechanical and geochemical properties can impact the injectivity or storage capacity of CO 2 . Models simulated historical field operations and then forward-modeled a water-alternate-gas (WAG) operation for 20 years, followed by a 1000-year post-injection monitoring. The work demonstrates that in this specific reservoir, geomechanical impacts appear to be more significant than any geochemical processes, which showed minimal impact on reservoir properties. Furthermore, these simulation scenarios corroborated other studies showing more than 90% of CO 2 injected are being stored and will remain stored in the reservoir. The study was able to draw on a rich set of data from this currently operational project for the work. Because the Morrow is a widespread oil-bearing reservoir in the midcontinent of the United States and is fairly typical of many sandstone reservoirs elsewhere, the study has significance beyond the boundaries of our field area.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping existing wellbore locations to compare technical risks between onshore and offshore CCS activities in Texas

Carbon dioxide capture and geologic storage (CCS; geologic sequestration) is a promising technology for reducing anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions to the atmosphere from industrial point sources. Aspects of CCS have been investigated for over two decades, and many large- and small-scale geologic storage field demonstration projects are now underway globally. Interest in offshore CCS has been increasing in recent years (e.g., European Union, Australia, Japan, and the United States). Deep geologic storage in offshore settings is analogous to onshore CCS activities in many respects (i.e., geologic and geotechnical aspects), but is distinct from previously explored seabed sediment CO 2 storage) or deep marine dissolution). Given the large subsurface geologic storage volumes available in offshore settings, much discussion of offshore CCS is focused on the benefits and risks of such activity compared to onshore settings. Similar to onshore settings, existing (legacy) wells likely present the most direct migration pathway and largest risk of noncontainment in offshore settings. As part of current studies to evaluate geologic storage options in offshore settings along the Texas coast and greater Gulf of Mexico (GoM), mapping of the geographic distribution and ages of wells in a region containing coastal counties and extending 30 miles offshore Texas indicates that both well spatial density and well age decrease moving from onshore to offshore. Results suggest reduced risk of leakage owing to more rigorous and documented well completion and abandonment practices for these generally younger wells (although many are decades old). A result of decreased well density is that larger areas are available for leasing for CCS projects that avoid legacy wells altogether (> 1 mile from any existing well). The one-mile designation is used as an arbitrary convention, and while it is recognized that this is smaller than a typical area of review (AoR) for permitting, each site will have a different AoR radius for consideration. Finally, the combination of large subsurface storage volumes under control of a single landowner and reduced risks from legacy wells makes offshore CCS attractive in the GoM.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Sanitary Waste Landfill Effects on an Invasive Wild Pig Population

Being opportunistic omnivores, wild pigs (Sus scrofa) readily feed on edible garbage. Given the presence of substantial volumes of edible food waste, large multi-county and regional municipal sanitary waste landfills constitute attractive forage resources for pigs, providing a year-round anthropogenic source of potentially high-quality forage. Our objective was to assess the effects that a large regional landfill has on the local pigs foraging in that facility's waste disposal cells. The landfill, located on the United States Department of Energy's Savannah River Site (SRS) in South Carolina, USA, became operational in 1998 and pigs began foraging there in 2001. By 2009 >100 pigs/night were observed foraging in the landfill, suggesting landfill establishment may have important consequences for population dynamics, public safety, and disease transmission. We evaluated changes in body mass, fetal litter size, numbers of pigs removed, and wild pig-vehicle collisions (WPVCs) before (1980–2000) and after (2001–2019) pigs began foraging in the landfill on SRS. Body mass during the after period increased to a greater extent for pigs in the vicinity of the landfill compared to pigs on the rest of SRS. Fetal litter size increased for pigs in the vicinity of the landfill, whereas it remained unchanged on the rest of SRS. Our density surrogate (number of pigs harvested) increased around the landfill during the after period by 2.9 times, whereas on the rest of the site it only increased by 53%. No WPVCs occurred adjacent to the landfill before 2001, but WPVCs increased along the 2 major roads bordering the landfill after 2001. Effects of sanitary waste landfills on wild pig populations scavenging there can present unique challenges to population management, control, public safety, and disease transmission. Potential approaches to address these challenges could be exclusion fencing to prevent access to the landfill's waste disposal cells or enhanced placement of waste cell covers to reduce access.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Deconstruction of plant biomass by a Cellulomonas strain isolated from an ultra-basic (lignin-stripping) spring

Plant material falling into the ultra-basic (pH 11.5-11.9) springs within The Cedars, an actively serpentinizing site in Sonoma County, California, is subject to conditions that mimic the industrial pretreatment of lignocellulosic biomass for biofuel production. In this research, we sought to obtain hemicellulolytic/cellulolytic bacteria from The Cedars springs that are capable of withstanding the extreme alkaline conditions wherein calcium hydroxide-rich water removes lignin, making cell wall polysaccharides more accessible to microorganisms and their enzymes. We enriched for such bacteria by adding plant debris from the springs into a synthetic alkaline medium with ground tissue of the biofuel crop switchgrass (Panicum virgatum L.) as the sole source of carbon. From the enrichment culture we isolated the facultative anaerobic bacterium Cellulomonas sp. strain FA1 (NBRC 114238), which tolerates high pH and catabolizes the major plant cell wall-associated polysaccharides cellulose, pectin, and hemicellulose. Strain FA1 in monoculture colonized the plant material and degraded switchgrass at a faster rate than the community from which it was derived. Cells of strain FA1 could be acclimated through subculturing to grow at a maximal concentration of 13.4% ethanol. A strain FA1-encoded β-1, 4-endoxylanase expressed in E. coli was active at a broad pH range, displaying near maximal activity at pH 6-9. Discovery of this bacterium illustrates the value of extreme alkaline springs in the search for microorganisms with potential for consolidated bioprocessing of plant biomass to biofuels and other valuable bio-inspired products.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of recent wild pig-vehicle collisions in Georgia, USA

Vehicle collisions with wild pigs (Sus scrofa) are reported almost everywhere this species is found. However, this is one of the least studied and characterized forms of damage that these invasive animals cause in the United States (U.S.). Here, we analyzed 518 wild pig-vehicle collisions (WPVCs) that took place statewide in Georgia between 2015 and 2021. From that dataset, we analyzed several parameters in order to better understand and characterize these accidents on a scale that had previously not been done in the U.S. Wild pig-vehicle collisions were reported from 105 out of the 159 counties in Georgia, increasing in number annually over the seven-year period. WPVCs were most likely to occur in the fall (37%). A duration weighted time of day analysis showed that WPVCs were most frequent at dusk. Most (97%) reported accidents were caused by live wild pigs, with the remainder being due to collisions with already dead or road-killed pigs. Most (86%) collisions involved a single wild pig while the remainder occurred with two or more pigs. Collisions occurred mostly with passenger cars on dry, straight, and level two-lane blacktop roads under dark, unlighted conditions. Nine percent of the vehicle accidents involving wild pigs resulted in injuries to the drivers and passengers. Some of the most severe injuries reported were caused by swerving to avoid striking wild pigs. No human fatalities were recorded due to these accidents. Wild pig-vehicle collisions are costly and dangerous and should be closely monitored and mitigated by the agencies responsible for motorist safety, transportation infrastructure, and wildlife management.

Georgia↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cultivating clarity: understanding the impact of land cost assumptions on biofuel viability

The transition to sustainable energy has increased interest in biofuel production to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, decrease reliance on imported oil, and ensure energy resilience. Here, this study examines the often-overlooked impact of land cost assumptions on the economic viability of biofuel production. Using a discounted cash flow techno-economic framework, we evaluated three land cost scenarios—no land costs, land rental costs, and land purchase costs—across six bioenergy feedstocks (corn, soybeans, switchgrass, miscanthus, poplar, and microalgae) and three biofuel products (corn ethanol, soybean biodiesel, and sustainable aviation fuel) at the county level for the contiguous United States. The analysis reveals substantial variation in minimum fuel selling prices due to these scenarios. High-yield crops like algae showed low sensitivity to land costs, while low-yield crops such as soybeans were highly sensitive. Geographical differences were significant, with minimum fuel selling price increases most pronounced in high-value land regions like the Corn Belt. Case studies further illustrate the influence of local productivity and land costs on economic outcomes across the United States. These findings emphasize the importance of maintaining consistent land cost assumptions in biofuel economic assessments. By quantifying the interplay between land value, crop productivity, and economic feasibility, this study provides essential insights for policymakers and stakeholders to advance sustainable energy solutions.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Electrification potential of U.S. industrial boilers and assessment of the GHG emissions impact

Electrification is a key strategy for decarbonizing the industrial sector. Industrial process heating, which still relies heavily on fossil fuel combustion and accounts for the majority of sector wide GHG emissions, is a particularly attractive electrification target. Electrifying industrial boilers represents a cross-cutting opportunity for GHG emissions reductions, given their widespread use in most manufacturing industries. Yet, there are gaps in the understanding of the current population of conventional industrial boilers in the United States that preclude a characterization of boiler electrification's technical potential to reduce fuel consumption and GHG emissions. In this study, we develop an up-to-date dataset of the industrial boiler population in the U.S. and quantify the county-level electricity requirements and net changes in fuel use and GHG emissions under the current electric grid and theoretical future grid scenarios. Our results show an increase of 105 MMmtCO 2 e and 73 MMmtCO 2 e in GHG emissions from boiler electrification, with and without the replacement of byproduct fuels, respectively, under the current electric grid, and a reduction of 19 MMmtCO2e and 7 MMmtCO2e in GHG emissions under a future high renewables electric grid. GHG emissions savings are currently possible only in certain regions of the U.S. unless future grids are decarbonized. We also provide discussion that could be useful for policy makers and manufacturing facilities for advancing the electrification of industrial boilers in locations and industries toward fuel savings and GHG emissions reductions.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Quantifying carbon budget, crop yields and their responses to environmental variability using the ecosys model for U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems

As one of the major agricultural production areas in the world, the United States (U.S.) Midwest plays a vital role in the global food supply and agricultural ecosystem services. Although significant efforts have been made in modeling the carbon cycle dynamics over this area, large uncertainty still exists in the previous simulations in terms of reproducing individual components of the carbon cycle and their responses to environmental variability. Here we evaluated the performance of an advanced agroecosystem model, ecosys, in simulating carbon budgets over the U.S. Midwest, considering both the magnitude of carbon flux/yield and its response to environmental (climate and soil) variability. We conducted model simulations and evaluations at 7 cropland eddy-covariance sites as well as over 293 counties of Illinois, Indiana, and Iowa in the U.S. Midwest. The site-level simulations showed that ecosys captured both the magnitude and seasonal patterns of carbon fluxes (i.e., net ecosystem carbon exchange (NEE), ecosystem gross primary production (GPP), and ecosystem respiration (Reco)), leaf area index (LAI), and dynamic plant carbon allocation processes, with R2 equal to 0.92, 0.87, 0.87, and 0.78 for GPP, NEE, Reco, and LAI, respectively across all the sites compared with the observations. For regional scale simulations, ecosys reproduced the spatial distribution and interannual variability of corn and soybean yields with the constraints of observed yields and a new remotely sensed GPP product, with R2 of multi-year averaged simulated and observed yield equal 0.83 and 0.80 for corn and soybean, respectively. The simulated responses of carbon cycle dynamics to environmental variability were consistent with that from the empirical observations at both site and regional scales. Furthermore, our results demonstrated the applicability of ecosys in simulating the carbon cycle and soil carbon dynamics of the U.S. Midwestern agroecosystems under different climate and soil conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Limited potential of irrigation to prevent potato yield losses in Germany under climate change

Climate models project higher temperatures and a substantial net water deficit during the summer months over Germany until the end of the 21st century. The agricultural sector is particularly vulnerable to changing weather and climate conditions. In this study, we examine the role of irrigation for potato yields as a climate change adaptation measure in Northeast Lower Saxony (Germany). The region represents the largest irrigated area in Germany and is one of the main growing areas of potatoes. We develop a statistical multivariate regression model to investigate whether regional climate and irrigation data at the monthly and county level are suitable to describe potato yield variability from 1978 to 2018. Irrigation is estimated based on the climatic water balance and crop water demand. These estimates are calibrated against irrigation data from local agencies to account for realistic monthly water withdrawals. We analyze future yield changes based on climate model projections for the 21st century and different irrigation scenarios. We find that the potato yield will decrease significantly by 18% on average until 2050 with climate projection uncertainty of ±6.4% under the high emission scenario RCP 8.5 and without irrigation. Irrigation at current levels could compensate for about 54% of these yield losses. Doubling the amount of irrigation minimizes yield losses by as much as 80%. Under the low (middle) emission scenario RCP 2.6 (RCP 4.5), potato yield are projected to decrease moderately by 4.5% ± 3.4% (5.4% ± 2.8%) with irrigation at current levels. We show that the yield losses mainly originate from higher temperatures during the summer. Our analysis indicates that the capacity of irrigation to minimize yield losses is limited. Strengthening climate change mitigation efforts may be more effective in preventing yield losses. However, the effect of elevated CO 2 might buffer the high yield losses, especially in RCP 8.5. The studies supports farmers and decision makers in assessing future risks in potato yields. It can guide policymakers in allocating economic resources to cope with climate change.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Optimizing equity in energy policy interventions: A quantitative decision-support framework for energy justice

This paper presents a quantitative framework to support policy decision-making around equitable energy interventions. By combining sociodemographic and techno-economic models in the energy space, we propose a linear programming model to calculate the optimal portfolio of energy investments that explicitly minimizes the energy burden of a given population of energy insecure households. The model is formulated as a multi-objective optimization suitable to support the decisions on weatherization and deployment of distributed energy resources. We illustrate our methodology with a case study involving a population of 14,043 energy insecure households in Wayne County, Detroit, United States.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2023

Lime slurry treatment of soils developing on abandoned coal mine spoil: Linking contaminant transport from the micrometer to pedon-scale

Historical and abandoned coal mine spoil continues to generate acid- and metal(loid)-rich porewaters and represents a geographically large and diffuse non-point source of contamination to local watersheds. A potentially inexpensive approach to treat these materials and soils developing on them is through the application of lime slurries, to neutralize acidity and encourage the (co)precipitation of metal(loids) with Fe(III)-(oxy)hydroxides, and potentially other metal-oxides and/or Ca-bearing phases. Here, the efficacy of this approach was evaluated through parallel field application and laboratory-based flow-through column experiments. The field site is Huff Run sub-watershed 25 located in Tuscarawas County, Ohio and was chosen in part because it was previously classified as one of the most highly AMD-impacted sub-watersheds in the region. Two locations with historical spoil were chosen and suction lysimeters were installed at 25 and 75 cm depth to monitor porewater composition on two sides at the base of each pile. Half of each slope received seven lime slurry treatments from June through October of 2017. A suite of aqueous (ICP-OES, IC, and TOC-L) and solid phase geochemical and mineralogical approaches (quantitative SEM-EDS and synchrotron μ-XRF) were used to determine how composition, texture, morphology, and spatial distribution of mineral coatings differ in pre- and post-lime treated soils, and how that impacts the distribution and transport of trace metal(loid)s. Mine spoil porewater at site 1 was slightly less alkaline (pH ranging from 7.04 to 7.37) than at site 2 (ranging from 7.55 to 7.71), and average electrical conductivity values at site 1 (316–405 μS cm —1 ) were slightly lower than at site 2 (358–464 μS cm —1 ), although differences between the sites were not significant. Porewater pH and electrical conductivity in all lysimeters decreased over the course of the field season but there was no obvious response to lime treatment at either site or any depth. At site 1, both treatment and depth were significant factors affecting Ca, K, Ni, SO 4 2— , and DOC concentrations while only treatment effects were significant for dissolved Al and Cu (p < 0.05). For all soils, there were no trends in metal concentration observed over time although DOC and SO 4 2— decreased over the field season. Pedon-scale changes in metal porewater concentrations in response to treatment were linked to micrometer-scale changes in mineral surface coatings; specifically, higher concentrations of Ca, Fe, Mn, and Zn were observed in the coatings and no changes were observed in Fe redox speciation, whereas total S decreased likely due to oxidation of S in coal fragments. In contrast to the field experiment, the column experiments exhibited a much greater response in effluent composition with respect to lime treatment. The untreated columns had approximately an order of magnitude more H + leached over the course of the experiment (p < 0.001) and resulted in greater Ca, Al, Cu, and DIC leached and less Mn, Zn, and SO 4 2— . Soils treated with the lime slurry in the column experiments exhibited larger and thicker secondary Fe-coatings, including the addition of Fe-sulfates. Despite clear trends in the laboratory-based column experiment where the lime-to-soil ratio was higher, the effects were either muted or undetected in the field pilot project, suggesting that a higher application rate of lime in the field is needed to achieve a similar effect. This work provides evidence that a less alkaline lime slurry could be a practical and inexpensive method of treating coal mine spoil-impacted soils and represents an important step in linking laboratory-based remediation studies to implemented field-based studies.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

UrbanPop: A spatial microsimulation framework for exploring demographic influences on human dynamics

Ensuring the social equity of planning measures in social systems requires an understanding of human dynamics, particularly how individual relationships, activities, and interactions intersect with individual needs. Spatial microsimulation models (SMSMs) support planning for human security goals by representing human dynamics through realistic, georeferenced synthetic populations, that a) provide a complete representation of social systems while b) also protecting individual privacy. In this paper, we present UrbanPop, an open and reproducible SMSM framework for analysis of human dynamics with high spatial, temporal, and demographic resolution. UrbanPop creates synthetic populations of demographically detailed worker and student agents, positioning them first at probable nighttime locations (home), then moving them to probable daytime locations (work/school). Summary aggregations of these populations match the granular detail available at the census block group level in the American Community Survey Summary File (SF), providing realistic approximations of the actual population. UrbanPop users can select particular demographic traits important in their application, resulting in a highly tailored agent population. We first lay out UrbanPop's baseline methodology, including population synthesis, activity modeling, and diagnostics, then demonstrate these capabilities by developing case studies of shifting population distributions and high-risk populations in Knox County, TN during the global COVID-19 pandemic.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Impact of wildfires on regional ozone and PM 2.5 : Considering the light absorption of Brown carbon

The influence of wildfire brown carbon (BrC) in moderating the formation of O 3 and fine particulate matter (PM 2.5 ) due to its absorption of ultraviolet (UV) radiation is, for the first time, investigated using a modified community multiscale air quality (CMAQ) model. The wavelength-dependent imaginary refractive index of the organic carbon from wildfires, which are needed by the CMAQ model for its inline photolysis rate calculation, are generated experimentally from wood burning aerosols from a combustion chamber. On high emission days of the Bastrop County Complex fire in Texas in early September 2011, BrC UV absorption reduces the daytime average NO 2 photolysis rate by up to 38% in the core region of the wildfire plume compared to the base scenario that does not consider BrC absorption. Consequently, O 3 production in the smoke plume is suppressed compared to the base scenario due to reduced HO x radical concentrations. Further, in the core region, the predicted O 3 increase due to wildfire reaches as high as 47–123 ppb without considering BrC absorption, the predicted increase of O 3 is 5–15% lower when BrC absorption is considered. Similarly, considering the BrC UV absorption leads to approximately 1% (or ~2–3 µgm -3 ) lower estimation of the wildfire emissions’ impact on total PM 2.5 . This change is small because secondary aerosols, which are the components affected by BrC absorption, only account for a small fraction of the total PM 2.5 in wildfire impacted regions in this study. In addition, our study shows that assumptions about aerosol mixing state (core-shell vs. homogeneous) in the inline photolysis rate calculation would not significantly affect out assessment of the impact of wildfire BrC light absorption on O 3 and PM 2.5 .

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

COVID-19 dynamics across the US: A deep learning study of human mobility and social behavior

This paper presents a deep learning framework for epidemiology system identification from noisy and sparse observations with quantified uncertainty. The proposed approach employs an ensemble of deep neural networks to infer the time-dependent reproduction number of an infectious disease by formulating a tensor-based multi-step loss function that allows us to efficiently calibrate the model on multiple observed trajectories. The method is applied to a mobility and social behavior-based SEIR model of COVID-19 spread. The model is trained on Google and Unacast mobility data spanning a period of 66 days, and is able to yield accurate future forecasts of COVID-19 spread in 203 US counties within a time-window of 15 days. Interestingly, a sensitivity analysis that assesses the importance of different mobility and social behavior parameters reveals that attendance of close places, including workplaces, residential, and retail and recreational locations, has the largest impact on the effective reproduction number. Furthermore, the model enables us to rapidly probe and quantify the effects of government interventions, such as lock-down and re-opening strategies. Taken together, the proposed framework provides a robust workflow for data-driven epidemiology model discovery under uncertainty and produces probabilistic forecasts for the evolution of a pandemic that can judiciously provide information for policy and decision making. All codes and data accompanying this manuscript are available at https://github.com/PredictiveIntelligenceLab/DeepCOVID19.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Estimating soybean yields from high-temporal-resolution multi-source data using deep learning

Accurate and timely crop yield prediction is crucial for ensuring food security and maintaining stable agricultural markets. In recent years, there has been a surge in interest in leveraging high-temporal-resolution, multi-source data for effective crop growth monitoring and yield estimation. A notable challenge arises from the difficulty in capturing the intricate interactions between variables across different time steps within these high-temporal-resolution time series datasets. This complexity hinders the reliable extraction of yield information from voluminous and often noisy datasets, especially during periods of extreme weather events. Here, in this study, we propose an Attention and Graph Isomorphism Network-enhanced Bi-directional Long Short-Term Memory network (AGB-LSTM) for estimating county-level soybean yield in the United States. This model integrates a diverse set of remote sensing data, including Near-Infrared Reflectance of Vegetation (NIRv), Sun-Induced chlorophyll Fluorescence (SIF), and Gross Primary Productivity (GPP), along with environmental covariates. The AGB-LSTM effectively leverages information related to crop yield from high-temporal-resolution time series data (5-days), achieving an accuracy of R²= 0.67 and rRMSE = 14.46%. This approach significantly outperforms traditional machine learning methods such as Random Forest (RF) (R²= 0.52, rRMSE = 17.36%) and Bi-LSTM (R²= 0.58, rRMSE = 16.17%). Sensitivity experiments with different time steps and ranges demonstrated that our model could accurately and stably predict yields 1 to 2 months before harvest. Moreover, data with a finer temporal resolution consistently improved prediction performance, resulting in an approximately 20% increase in and an approximately 20% decrease in rRMSE compared to using monthly composites. We also evaluated the robustness of the model under extreme climate events and observed strong performance (R²= 0.50, rRMSE = 21.32%). Finally, yield mapping for major soybean-producing regions in North America in 2023 revealed spatial patterns that closely matched USDA yield reports. Our findings suggest that the AGB-LSTM model is a promising and effective method for estimating yield and has notable potential for global crop yield forecasting.

Deep learning↗
DOE OSTI2021

Understanding collective human movement dynamics during large-scale events using big geosocial data analytics

Conventional approaches for modeling human mobility pattern often focus on human activity and movement dynamics in their regular daily lives and cannot capture changes in human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events. With the rapid advancement of information and communication technologies, many researchers have adopted alternative data sources (e.g., cell phone records, GPS trajectory data) from private data vendors to study human movement dynamics in response to large-scale natural or societal events. Big geosocial data such as georeferenced tweets are publicly available and dynamically evolving as real-world events are happening, making it more likely to capture the real-time sentiments and responses of populations. However, precisely-geolocated geosocial data is scarce and biased toward urban population centers. In this research, we developed a big geosocial data analytical framework for extracting human movement dynamics in response to large-scale events from publicly available georeferenced tweets. The framework includes a two-stage data collection module that collects data in a more targeted fashion in order to mitigate the data scarcity issue of georeferenced tweets; in addition, a variable bandwidth kernel density estimation(VB-KDE) approach was adopted to fuse georeference information at different spatial scales, further augmenting the signals of human movement dynamics contained in georeferenced tweets. To correct for the sampling bias of georeferenced tweets, we adjusted the number of tweets for different spatial units (e.g., county, state) by population. To demonstrate the performance of the proposed analytic framework, we chose an astronomical event that occurred nationwide across the United States, i.e., the 2017 Great American Eclipse, as an example event and studied the human movement dynamics in response to this event. Finally, this analytic framework can easily be applied to other types of large-scale events such as hurricanes or earthquakes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Field surveying data of low-cost networked flood sensors in southeast Texas

Floods are common natural disasters worldwide and pose substantial risks to life, property, food production, and natural resources. Effective measures for flood mitigation and warning are essential. Southeast Texas is still at significant risk of flooding, and Lamar University is assisting the region with asset management of a flood sensor network for flooding events. This network provides real-time water stage information. Lamar University developed a survey program to measure elevation and coordinates at each sensor site location to make this data more useful for flood monitoring and mapping. This paper overviews the measurement of the elevation and coordinates of 74 networked flood sensors and various flood stage thresholds at critical points that flood decision-makers can use for reference at each site. In the first phase of this program, these sensors were deployed throughout a 7-county region spanning nearly 6,000 square miles in Southeast Texas. The latitude and longitude of the sensors and their elevations were determined using survey-grade Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS) technology. Various Continually Operating Reference Stations (CORS) were utilized for post-processing to achieve sub-inch resolution. The flood stage thresholds, water level sensors elevation, and the elevations and positions of other critical surrounding points are viewable to the public through two online repositories and a web-based sensor management dashboard. The data is used to aid with decisions related to road closures or modeling efforts by mitigation decision-makers, emergency managers, and the public, including the Texas Department of Transportation, Houston Transtar, the National Weather Service, and the Sabine River Authority of Texas (SRA).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Estimating geographic origins of corn and soybean biomass for biofuel production: A detailed dataset

Sustainable fuel initiatives in the United States such as the Environmental Protection Agency’s Renewable Fuel Stan- dard and the Department of Energy’s Sustainable Aviation Fuel Grand Challenge have increased the production of corn ethanol and soybean biodiesel. However, the lack of precise information regarding biomass sourcing at a localized level has hindered accurate understanding of both biofuel costs and environmental impact of these production pathways. By harnessing the power of geospatial analysis and leveraging United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) crop cen- sus data, this dataset fills this critical knowledge gap. This dataset offers a novel estimation of geospatial biomass sourc- ing for biofuel production in the United States by synthe- sizing 2017 USDA crop census data, biorefinery data from the United States Energy Information Administration, and publicly available information about biomass sourcing for biofuel production. This dataset provides a detailed under- standing of biomass use for first generation biofuel pro- duction, enabling stakeholders to make informed decisions about resource allocation, investment strategies, and infras- tructure development. Furthermore, the county-level gran- ularity of the dataset allows for increased fidelity in the techno-economic assessments and life-cycle analyses of first- generation biofuels in the United States.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗