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At least 721 records · Page 40

Climate science to inform adaptation policy: Heat waves over India in the 1.5°C and 2°C warmer worlds

Developing a better scientific understanding of anthropogenic climate change and climate variability, especially the prediction/projection of climate futures with useful temporal and geographical resolution and quantified uncertainties, and using that knowledge to inform adaptation planning and action will become crucially important in the coming years. Generating such policy-relevant knowledge may be particularly important for developing countries such as India. It is with this backdrop that, in this paper, we analyze future heat waves in India by using observations and a large number of model simulations of historical, + 1.5 °C, and + 2.0 °C warmer worlds. In both the future scenarios, there is an increased probability of heat waves during June and July when the Indian monsoon is in full swing and humidity is high, which makes the heat events even more of a health risk. While the highest temperatures in heat waves may not increase much in future climates, the duration and areal extent of the heat waves will most likely increase, leading to the emergence of new heat wave-prone zones in India. The results indicate that the joint frequencies of the longest duration and large area events could be nearly threefold greater in the + 1.5 °C and fivefold greater in the + 2.0 °C future scenarios compared to historical simulations. Thus, overall, the study indicates a substantial increase in the risk of heat events that typically elicit warnings from forecasters. The likely widespread and persistent nature of heat wave events in the future, as revealed by this study, will require planning and adaptation measures beyond the short-term disaster planning frameworks currently in place. Exploring what these measures might look like is beyond the scope of this study, but it underlines the importance of developing climate knowledge with high temporal and geographical resolution capable of informing adaptation policy and planning.

+1.5 °C and +2.0 °C↗

Evaluating the regional risks to food availability and access from land-based climate policies in an Integrated Assessment Model

Mitigating greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions is necessary to reduce the overall negative climate change impacts on crop yields and agricultural production. However, certain mitigation measures may generate unintended consequences to food availability and food access due to both land use competition and economic burden of mitigation. Integrated assessment models (IAM) are generally used to evaluate these policies; however, currently these models may not capture the importance of income and food prices for hunger and overall economic wellbeing. Here, we implement a measure of food security that captures the nutritional and economic aspects as the total expenditures on staple foods divided by income and weighted by total caloric consumption in an IAM, the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM4.0). We then project consumer prices and our measure of food security along the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs). Sustained economic growth underpins increases in caloric consumption and lowering expenditures on staple foods. Strict conservation policies affect food accessibility in a larger number of developing countries, whereas the negative effects of pricing terrestrial emissions is more concentrated on the poor in Sub-Saharan Africa, by substantially replacing their cropland with forests and affecting the production of key staples.

Cui, Ryna↗

Fusion Innovation and the Valley of Death—Lessons from Fission

Over the past several decades, the United States (U.S.) and other countries have done important research and development in advanced nuclear energy technologies, both fission and fusion. The urgency of our current climate, energy, and security needs have prompted a concerted effort by innovators, investors, and the public sector to transition from research and development (R&D) to demonstration and commercialization—to cross the proverbial “valley of death.” The stakes are high: humanity needs clean energy options, and the failure of any promising alternative will lower our odds of success. The process of moving an innovation into use has often been described in phases that begin with early research and end with deployment at scale. Between those two phases lies an area often referred to as the “valley of death” because it can require a long period of time, large investments, and often includes significant challenges related to regulation, standardization, and entering markets already structured around incumbent technologies. What can we learn from recent experience with fission to inform our path forward with fusion? At least five key lessons rise to the top: 1) Set bold targets; 2) Empower the private sector; 3) Engage with regulators and the public; 4) Address costs and markets; and 5) Deliver results. Here, this editorial will consider each of these in turn.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Side-reaction products identified for photo-nuclear production of 99 Mo

Production of 99 Mo by the 100 Mo (γ, n) 99 Mo reaction through the bremsstrahlung process using an electron accelerator is one of the feasible options currently pursued by several countries. In this work, we report experimental results on identification of side-reaction products after the irradiation of natural and enriched 100 Mo targets. Side-reaction products identified include various Mo, Nb and Zr isotopes. Comparison of experimentally determined reaction production rates with those determined based on theoretical cross-sections will be presented. Moreover, activation products formed due to presence of impurities introduced during the manufacturing of the Mo targets will also be discussed.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

National nuclear forensics libraries: a case study on benefits and possibilities for identification of sealed radioactive sources

A National Nuclear Forensic Library (NNFL) is a useful nuclear forensics tool which consists of information and subject matter expertise on radioactive and nuclear (RN) materials produced, used or stored within a State. If RN material is found out of regulatory control the NNFL can be used as part of a nuclear forensics investigation to help identify whether or not the material is consistent with a country’s national holdings. In previous work, a number of signatures which can be useful to identify sealed sources of 241 Am were investigated. To validate the measurement results, an official query concerning information about two of the previously investigated 241 Am sources was sent to the United States Department of State, the international point-of-contact (POC) for the U.S. NNFL. The aim of this work is to show how data obtained in a characterization of a radioactive source can be used in conjunction with an NNFL to investigate the history of a source out of regulatory control.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

Collaborative Study for Certification of Trace Elements in Uranium Ore Concentrate CRMs UCLO-1, UCHI-1, and UPER-1

Trace impurity patterns are important nuclear forensic signatures in uranium ore concentrates (UOCs) and Certified Reference Materials (CRMs) are used to validate the analysis methods employed by end users. Herein, we discuss the certification campaign for three new UOC CRMs from the National Research Council Canada: UCLO-1 (https://doi.org/10.4224/crm.2020.uclo-1), UCHI-1 (https://doi.org/10.4224/crm.2020.uchi-1), and UPER-1 (https://doi.org/10.4224/crm.2020.uper-1). This study involved 15 laboratories from 10 countries, using sector-field and (triple) quadrupole inductively-coupled plasma mass spectrometry to analyze 64 trace element impurities. We discuss the importance of the acids used for sample digestion, difficulties analyzing in a high uranium matrix, and data combination and uncertainty evaluation for this large dataset.

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA↗

The Surface-Topography Challenge: A Multi-Laboratory Benchmark Study to Advance the Characterization of Topography

Surface performance is critically influenced by topography in virtually all real-world applications. The current standard practice is to describe topography using one of a few industry-standard parameters. The most commonly reported number is Ra, the average absolute deviation of the height from the mean line (at some, not necessarily known or specified, lateral length scale). However, other parameters, particularly those that are scale-dependent, influence surface and interfacial properties; for example the local surface slope is critical for visual appearance, friction, and wear. The present Surface-Topography Challenge was launched to raise awareness for the need of a multi-scale description, but also to assess the reliability of different metrology techniques. In the resulting international collaborative effort, 153 scientists and engineers from 64 research groups and companies across 20 countries characterized statistically equivalent samples from two different surfaces: a “rough” and a “smooth” surface. The results of the 2088 measurements constitute the most comprehensive surface description ever compiled. We find wide disagreement across measurements and techniques when the lateral scale of the measurement is ignored. Consensus is established through scale-dependent parameters while removing data that violates an established resolution criterion and deviates from the majority measurements at each length scale. Our findings suggest best practices for characterizing and specifying topography. The public release of the accumulated data and presented analyses enables global reuse for further scientific investigation and benchmarking.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Chloride Molten Salt Electrolysis Enables Integrated and Energy-Efficient Process for NdFeB Magnet Fabrication

Rare-earth elements (REEs) have been identified by NATO, the USDOE, and USGS as critical materials, i.e., materials which have significant demand yet pose supply-chain risks. Many of the existing processes for separations, metallization, and final parts production used across the REE supply chain involve energy intensive steps. For example, neodymium (Nd or NdPr) is produced using oxyfluoride electrolysis of Nd 2 O 3 , which requires hydrofluoric acid to produce a key electrolyte component (NdF 3 ) and generates undesired perfluorocarbon (PFC) gases. Such challenges make securing a resilient supply chain for NdFeB permanent magnets in countries like the United States prohibitively difficult. Here, we propose a chloride-based MSE process that circumvents these challenges, delivering high-purity NdPr from a (NdPr)Cl 3 feed from upstream REE separations. This eliminates environmentally-damaging steps of oxalate or carbonate precipitation and calcination, and enables superior production rates due to greater solubility of (NdPr)Cl 3 in chloride melts compared to Nd 2 O 3 . We show that CMSE generates high-purity NdPr (99.4 wt.%) while being energy-efficient (~ 6 kWh/kg-Nd). NdPr from CMSE was used to fabricate a NdFeB magnet with an excellent maximum energy product (> 40 MGOe), comparable to commercially available NdFeB magnets. This establishes CMSE as a leading approach for integrated, energy-efficient NdFeB magnet production.

Materials science↗

Organizational and psychological measures for data center energy efficiency: barriers and mitigation strategies

Abstract It was last estimated that in 2020, data centers comprised approximately 2% of total US electricity consumption, with an estimated annual growth rate of 4%. As our country increasingly relies on information technology (IT), our data centers (DCs) will need to increase their energy efficiency (EE) to stabilize their energy consumption. The task of studying EE in DCs is complicated by the interconnected nature of humans and mission-critical technical systems. Moreover, the literature tends to focus on technology solutions such as improvements to IT equipment, cooling infrastructure, and software, without addressing organizational and psychological drivers. Our research demystifies the complex interactions between humans and DCs, by asking What non-technical barriers impede EE investment decision-making and/or implementing energy management strategies? To begin to answer this question, we perform a literature review of 86 resources, ranging from peer-reviewed journal publications to handbooks. We also consider related fields such as organizational behavioral management and energy intensive buildings. We develop a public Zotero library, perform content coding, and complete a rudimentary network analysis. Our findings from the literature review suggest that (1) technological solutions are abundant in the literature but fall short of providing practical guidance on the pitfalls of implementation, (2) making energy efficiency a priority at the executive level of organizations will be largely ineffective if the IT and facilities staff are not directly incentivized to increase EE, and (3) there is minimal current understanding of how the individual psychologies of IT and facilities staff affect EE implementation in DCs. In the next phase of our research, we plan to interview data center operators/experts to ground-truth our literature findings and collaboratively design decarbonization policy solutions that target organizational structure, empower individual staff, and foster a supportive external market.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Cross-cutting strategies to lower electricity use of miscellaneous electric loads in the domestic sector

Miscellaneous Electric Loads (MELs) account for roughly one quarter of building electricity use in most developed countries. A product-specific approach to lowering MELs electricity use in this category takes too long and costs too much because there are so many MELs, each providing unique services. An alternative approach focusing on key functionalities was therefore explored. These functionalities include: (1) power management, (2) power scaling, and (3) power conversion. Cross-cutting efficiency improvements to these functionalities can be incorporated into broad categories of MELs, thus saving electricity and lowering costs. Even though the population of MELs is diverse and rapidly evolving, major technical opportunities exist to improve their efficiency in these functionalities. Research into energy-saving solutions within the cross-cutting technologies will probably have larger savings than focusing on single products.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Evapotranspiration Partitioning of Eucalyptus benthamii and Pinus taeda During Early Stand Development

Increasing demand for bioenergy from intensively managed woody crops raises concerns of increased evapotranspiration and potential decreases in water yield. Pinus taeda (loblolly pine) is currently the most cultivated species in the southeastern USA, the country’s wood basket. However, Eucalyptus species could achieve greater productivity but with unknown ramifications for water budgets. To address the knowledge gap, we determined annual water budgets of loblolly pine and Eucalyptus benthamii (eucalypt) from growing years 3 through 5 in a replicated (n = 3) two-factor design comparing species and groundwater depth. Paired plots were established across a depth-to-groundwater gradient from shallow (~ 2 m) to deep (~ 8 m). Hydrologic budgets were constructed by measuring precipitation, interception, soil evaporation, and transpiration. Eucalypt evapotranspiration and above-ground biomass production for growing years 3 through 5 were on average 25 and 14% greater than pine, respectively; however, evapotranspiration did not differ across groundwater depths. At the end of growing year 5, eucalypt had higher transpiration and evapotranspiration per unit area than pine. Soil evaporation was substantial in young plantations (nearly 500 mm) in growing year 3 but declined as the canopy closed. Partitioning of evapotranspiration components in developing bioenergy plantations was dynamic due to canopy development driven decreases in soil evaporation and increases in transpiration and interception; total evapotranspiration was less variable from year to year. Water use efficiency (WUE, kg biomass/m 3 H 2 O) per unit evapotranspiration was similar between species, but WUE per unit transpiration was higher in pine. As a result, considering total evapotranspiration in young plantations can affect WUE interpretations.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Improved lithospheric attenuation structure of the Arabian Peninsula through the use of national network data

We characterize the attenuation structure of the Arabian Peninsula through the measurement of regional phase amplitudes. High-resolution is achieved by combining stations from global networks with national network data through the cooperative effort of several countries in the region, including Saudi Arabia, Oman, Iraq, and Kuwait. The result is an improved attenuation model of the crust and upper mantle for a broad frequency band that extends from 0.5 to 10 Hz. The observed attenuation is in accordance with various elements of earth structure, including plate boundary type, style of tectonism, thermo-tectonic age, and temperature. Emerging features from the model include details in the structure along the Red Sea, and improved imaging of the southern Arabian Peninsula extending north from the Gulf of Aden. Finally, the resulting attenuation model can be employed for better magnitude estimates, in isolating tectonic and structural features, and in characterizing strong ground motion in the Arabian Peninsula.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Prioritizing vaccination based on analysis of community networks

Abstract Many countries that had early access to COVID-19 vaccines implemented vaccination strategies that prioritized health care workers and the elderly. As barriers to access eased, vaccine prioritization strategies have been relaxed. However, these strategies are still an important tool for decision makers to manage new variants, plan for future booster shots, or stage mass vaccinations. This paper explores the impact of vaccine prioritization strategies using networks that represent communities with different demographics and connectivity. The impact of vaccination is compared to non-medical intervention to reduce transmission. Several sources of uncertainty are considered, including vaccine willingness and mask effectiveness. This paper finds that while prioritization strategies can have a large impact on reducing deaths and peak hospitalization, selecting the best strategy depends on community characteristics and the desired objective. Additionally, in some cases random vaccination performs as well as more targeted prioritization strategies. Understanding these trade-offs is important when planning vaccine distribution.

Klise, Katherine↗

Scale-bridging Optimization Framework for Desalination Integrated Produced Water Networks

Produced water (PW) management poses a major challenge to U.S. oil and gas development. Due to freshwater scarcity and PW injection curtailments, desalination may become a necessity in some parts of the country. Integrating rigorous desalination process models within a produced water network for co-optimization of desalination design and network operation can be challenging to scale-up due to computational complexity. In this work we use the trust region filter framework to decompose the integrated optimization problem into an optimization master problem consisting of the network model and simplified surrogates for the desalination units and an optimization sub problem for the rigorous desalination unit model. The approach is demonstrated on a multiperiod produced water network from the PARETO library with thermal desalination units.

Naik, Sakshi↗

The use of teledentistry in facilitating oral health for older adults: A scoping review

Teledentistry is used in many countries to provide oral health care services. However, using teledentistry to provide oral health care services for older adults is not well documented. This knowledge gap needs to be addressed, especially when accessing a dental clinic is not possible and teledentistry might be the only way for many older adults to receive oral health care services. Nine databases were searched and 3,396 studies were screened using established eligibility criteria. Included studies were original research or review articles in which the intervention of interest was delivered to an older adult population (≥ 60 years) via teledentistry. The authors followed the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses Extension for Scoping Review criteria. Nineteen studies were identified that met the criteria for inclusion. Only 1 study was from the United States. Seven studies had results focusing on older adult participants only, with most of those conducted in elder care facilities. The remainder consisted of studies with mixed-age populations reporting distinct results or information for older adults. The included studies used teledentistry, in both synchronous and asynchronous modes, to provide services such as diagnosis, oral hygiene promotion, assessment and referral of oral emergencies, and postintervention follow-up. Teledentistry comprises a variety of promising apps. Lastly, the authors identified and described uses, promising possibilities, and limitations of teledentistry to improve the oral health of older adults.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Discovery of nuclear isomers

Currently, 1917 nuclear isomers with half-lives longer than 100 ns have been discovered in 1310 different nuclides and 103 different elements. Here, while the physical properties of isomers have been compiled before, this is the first compilation of the isomer discoveries. For each isomer the reference, year, laboratory and country are documented.

Thoennessen, M. [Michigan State University, East L↗

Aggregation in bottom-up vulnerability assessments and equity implications: The case of Jordanian households’ water supply

Bottom-up methods for water resources modeling rely on acceptability thresholds to find, through a response surface, which deeply uncertain futures lead to system failure. They commonly treat water users as aggregate actors, which may preclude analysis of the equity impacts of interventions. This paper explores how aggregation choices for large groups of water users lead to different policy recommendations in response surface assessments. Herein, two aggregation methods with varying parameters are considered: percentile satisfaction targets and generalized mean. A 2-dimensional stress-test assessment across groundwater availability and population is applied to household water supply in Jordan. The study compares six different policies covering supply enhancement and rebalancing, using a country-wide multi-agent model that characterizes households across socioeconomic strata. For different aggregation levels, policies are ordered by their associated robustness index. Results show that aggregation choices may modify response surfaces as much as policy changes and strongly determine policy preference. Modifying allocation rules can substantially reduce the disparity in household vulnerability. Preferences defined by aggregation intervals provide a finer understanding of trade-offs among water users and may improve deliberation over equity under deep uncertainty.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Emergency department overcrowding and its associated factors at HARME medical emergency center in Eastern Ethiopia

Introduction: Emergency department (ED) overcrowding has become a significant concern as it can lead to compromised patient care in emergency settings. Various tools have been used to evaluate overcrowding in ED. However, there is a lack of data regarding this issue in resource-limited countries, including Ethiopia. This study aimed to validate NEDOCS, assess level of ED overcrowding and identify associated factors at HARME Medical Emergency Center, located in Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Harar, Ethiopia. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted at the HARME Medical Emergency Center, Hiwot Fana Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, involving a total of 899 patients during 120 sampling intervals. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curves (AUC) was calculated to evaluate the agreement between objective and subjective assessments of ED overcrowding. A multivariable logistic regression analysis was employed to identify factors associated with ED overcrowding and statistically significant association was declared using 95% confidence level and a p-value < 0.05. Results: The interrater agreement showed a strong correlation with a Cohen's kappa (κ) of 0.80. The National Emergency Department Overcrowding Study Score demonstrated a strong association with subjective assessments from residents and case team nurses, with an AUC of 0.81 and 0.79, respectively. According to residents' perceptions, ED were considered overcrowded 65.8% of the time. Factors significantly associated with ED overcrowding included waiting time for triage (AOR: 2.24; 95% CI: 1.54–3.27), working time (AOR: 2.23; 95% CI: 1.52–3.26), length of stay (AOR: 2.40; 95% CI: 1.27–4.54), saturation level (AOR: 2.35; 95% CI: 1.31–4.20), chronic illness (AOR: 2.19; 95% CI: 1.37–3.53), and abnormal pulse rate (AOR: 1.52; 95% CI: 1.06–2.16). Conclusion: The study revealed that ED were overcrowded approximately two-thirds of the time.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗