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Thermomechanical analysis and modeling of a high-temperature light trapping planar cavity solar receiver

The development of durable particle-based high-temperature solar receivers is critical for advancing concentrating solar-thermal (CST) technologies to enable high-efficiency power generation and industrial process heat. Here, this study presents a computational framework to evaluate the thermomechanical performance of a proposed enclosed light-trapping planar cavity receiver designed for particle-based thermal energy systems. The receiver incorporates absorptive cavities and fluidized particle-bed channels to enhance heat capture and reduce thermal losses. Finite element analysis (FEA) is employed to assess stress, strain, and creep-fatigue behavior under concentrated solar flux using realistic thermal boundary conditions derived from coupled system models and experimental assembly parameters. The analysis investigates the influence of particle-to-wall heat transfer coefficients (HTC) ranging from 800 to 1800 W/m 2 .K on the thermomechanical response of six candidate high-temperature alloys: Alloy 740H, Alloy 282, Alloy 617, 316H, Alloy 230, and 800H. Results show that increasing HTC reduces thermal gradients, leading to lower stresses and strains and extended minimum predicted creep life. While all materials satisfy fatigue life requirements under the investigated conditions, significant differences in creep resistance are observed. Alloy 740H consistently exhibits the longest minimum predicted creep life and the most favorable durability margins, followed by Alloy 282, with the remaining materials showing reduced creep resistance under identical loading. The reported creep lives are conservative lower-bound estimates intended for comparative material evaluation. This framework highlights the critical roles of material selection and geometry optimization in improving mechanical durability and reliability of solar-thermal receivers, forming a foundation for future experimental validation and design optimization.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Modeling of the TRIGA IPR-R1 research reactor with the Serpent2/RINNOVO Nodal core analysis package

The Serpent2/RINNOVO nodal core analysis code system, a dedicated tool for modeling research reactors, has the capability to accurately predict important core physics parameters involved in the safety of reactor operation, such as various reactivity coefficients, control rod and bank worths including the shutdown margin, power distributions as well as local neutron flux predictions at various core locations of high importance, e.g., at irradiation rigs. In this work, a hexagonal model of the unrodded initial core of the Brazilian IPR-R1 Mark I type TRIGA nuclear reactor has been created using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system. The choice of employing a hexagonal core geometry representation has mainly been made to facilitate subsequent fuel shuffling operations and core follow calculations of this reactor. Numerical results in terms of the core eigenvalue and the assembly power distribution have then been compared against corresponding full core Serpent2 results to prove feasibility of using the Serpent2/RINNOVO code system for modeling small and highly heterogeneous TRIGA reactors. Overall, RINNOVO predicts the power distribution very accurately but the eigenvalue error still remains quite large. In light of being the very first evaluation of a TRIGA reactor with the RINNOVO nodal core simulator, these results are also considered to be very preliminary. Improved accuracy is expected by incorporating a proper methodology in the current code system for computing discontinuity factors for multi-assembly configurations. Furthermore, improved results are expected by increasing the number of energy groups used by RINNOVO in these core calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Feasibility of Actively Cooled Silicon Nitride Airfoil for Turbine Applications Demonstrated

Nickel-base superalloys currently limit gas turbine engine performance. Active cooling has extended the temperature range of service of nickel-base superalloys in current gas turbine engines, but the margin for further improvement appears modest. Therefore, significant advancements in materials technology are needed to raise turbine inlet temperatures above 2400 F to increase engine specific thrust and operating efficiency. Because of their low density and high-temperature strength and thermal conductivity, in situ toughened silicon nitride ceramics have received a great deal of attention for cooled structures. However, the high processing costs and low impact resistance of silicon nitride ceramics have proven to be major obstacles for widespread applications. Advanced rapid prototyping technology in combination with conventional gel casting and sintering can reduce high processing costs and may offer an affordable manufacturing approach. Researchers at the NASA Glenn Research Center, in cooperation with a local university and an aerospace company, are developing actively cooled and functionally graded ceramic structures. The objective of this program is to develop cost-effective manufacturing technology and experimental and analytical capabilities for environmentally stable, aerodynamically efficient, foreign-object-damage-resistant, in situ toughened silicon nitride turbine nozzle vanes, and to test these vanes under simulated engine conditions. Starting with computer aided design (CAD) files of an airfoil and a flat plate with internal cooling passages, the permanent and removable mold components for gel casting ceramic slips were made by stereolithography and Sanders machines, respectively. The gel-cast part was dried and sintered to final shape. Several in situ toughened silicon nitride generic airfoils with internal cooling passages have been fabricated. The uncoated and thermal barrier coated airfoils and flat plates were burner rig tested for 30 min without and with air cooling. Without cooling, the surface temperature of the flat plate reached approximately 2350 F. Starting with computer aided design (CAD) files of an airfoil and a flat plate with internal cooling passages, the permanent and removable mold components for gel casting ceramic slips were made by stereolithography and Sanders machines, respectively. The gel-cast part was dried and sintered to final shape. Several in situ toughened silicon nitride generic airfoils with internal cooling passages have been fabricated. The uncoated and thermal barrier coated airfoils and flat plates were burner rig tested for 30 min without and with air cooling. Without cooling, the surface temperature of the flat plate reached approximately 2350 F. With cooling, the surface temperature decreased to approximately 1910 F--a drop of approximately 440 F. This preliminary study demonstrates that a near-net-shape silicon nitride airfoil can be fabricated and that silicon nitride can sustain severe thermal shock and the thermal gradients induced by cooling and, thus, is a viable candidate for cooled components.

Bhatt, Ramakrishna T.↗

Development of Models for Disk-Gap-Band Parachutes Deployed Supersonically in the Wake of a Slender Body

The Advanced Supersonic Parachute Inflation Research and Experiments (ASPIRE) project will investigate the supersonic deployment, inflation, and aerodynamics of Disk- Gap-Band (DGB) parachutes in the wake of a slender body. The parachutes will be full-scale versions of the DGBs used by the Mars Science Laboratory in 2012 and planned for NASA’s Mars 2020 project and will be delivered to targeted deployment conditions representative of flight at Mars by sounding rockets launched out of NASA’s Wallops Flight Facility. The parachutes will be tested in the wake of a slender payload whose diameter is approximately a sixth that of entry capsules used for Mars missions. Models of the deployment, inflation, and aerodynamic performance of the parachutes are necessary to design key aspects of the experiment, including: determining the expected loads and applicable margins on the parachute and payload; guiding sensor selection and placement; evaluating the vehicle trajectory for targeting, range safety, and recovery operations. In addition, knowledge of the differences in the behavior of the parachutes in the wake of slender and blunt bodies is required in order to interpret the results of the sounding rocket experiment and determine how they relate to expected performance behind blunt bodies at Mars. However, modeling the performance of a supersonic DGB in the wake of a slender body is challenging due to the scarcity of historical test data and modeling precedents. This paper describes the models of the aerodynamic performance of DGBs in supersonic slender-body wakes being developed for the ASPIRE sounding rocket test campaign. Development of these models is based on the four available flight tests of DGBs deployed in supersonic slender-body wakes as well as on data from past flight and wind-tunnel experiments of DGBs deployed in the wake of blunt bodies, on the reconstructed at-Mars DGB performance during past missions, and on computational fluid dynamics simulations. Simulations of the wakes of blunt and slender bodies in supersonic flow have been conducted in order to investigate the differences in the flowfields encountered by parachutes deployed in both wake types. The simulations have allowed the project to investigate the fundamental differences between the sounding rocket tests and the flight of a DGB during a Mars mission and to assess the limitations of the sounding rocket test architecture for evaluating flight performance at Mars.

Clark, Ian G.↗

A User’s Guide to the PLTEMP/ANL Code (V.4.3)

PLTEMP/ANL V4.3 is a program that obtains a steady-state flow and temperature solution for a nuclear reactor core, or for a single fuel assembly. It is based on an evolutionary sequence of codes originally used for plate temperatures, hence “PLTEMP”, developed at Argonne National Laboratory over several decades. Fueled and non-fueled regions are modeled. Each fuel assembly consists of one or more plates or tubes separated by coolant channels. The fuel plates may have one to five layers of different materials, each with heat generation. The width of a fuel plate may be divided into multiple longitudinal stripes, each with its own axial power shape. Depending upon the heat transfer method selected, the temperature solution is effectively 2-dimensional or 3-dimensional (Appendix XV). It should be noted that for a 3-dimensional solution the axial power shape is modeled without accounting for axial heat conduction. It begins with a solution across all coolant channels and fuel plates or tubes within a given fuel assembly, at the entrance to the assembly. The temperature solution is repeated for each axial node along the length of the fuel assembly. The geometry may be either slab or radial, corresponding to fuel assemblies made of a series of flat (or slightly curved) plates, or of nested tubes. A variety of thermal-hydraulic correlations are available to determine safety margins such as onset-of-nucleate boiling ratio(ONBR), departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), and onset of flow instability ratio (OFIR). Coolant properties for either light or heavy water are obtained from FORTRAN functions rather than from tables. The code is intended for thermal-hydraulic analysis of research reactor performance in the sub-cooled boiling regime. Both turbulent and laminar flow regimes can be modeled. Options to calculate both forced flow and natural circulation are available. A general search capability is available (Appendix XII) to greatly reduce the reactor analyst’s time.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Conjugate Heat Transfer Analysis in Pressurized Helium Gas Cooling Channels

Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) is working with NorthStar Medical Radioisotopes (NMR) on their efforts to produce Mo-99 from the irradiation of Mo-100 targets. The NMR target consists of an Inconel window that allows the electron beam to penetrate and irradiate a stack of Mo-100 disks. The irradiation process generates large amounts of heat and is cooled using pressurized helium gas flowing at 400 g/s. LANL provides both numerical analysis support and experimental support. Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) and conjugate heat transfer (CHT) analysis are performed on the NMR target to analyze the helium flow and volumetric heating through the NMR system. In this iteration of numerical analysis, we update the Mo-100 disk thickness to 0.74 mm and the gap between the Inconel window and the first disk to 0.69 mm. Estimates of the heat flux from the electron beams from Monte Carlo N-Particle code (MCNP) analysis were combined with CFD to perform the CHT analysis. The pressure drop through the targets, force applied on the first disk, beam window and target disk temperatures are some of the quantities estimated using the simulations. The pressure drop through the target was estimated as 0.198 MPa, while the force due to venturi effects across the first disk was estimated to be 100 N. The results show maximum window temperatures over 600 °C and peak disk temperatures over 1600 °C. Past work has shown that beyond 650-700 °C, the Inconel window becomes susceptible to yield and rupture. The increased temperature in these results reduces the margin of error possible on beam spot size. The disk temperatures showed a sinusoidal distribution with the 6 th – 8 th disk from each window exhibiting highest disk temperatures. The peak temperature of the stainless steel housing was close to 316 °C and that of the laminations and spacers was approximately 582 °C.

43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗

RAVEN Theory Manual

RAVEN is a software framework able to perform parametric and stochastic analysis based on the response of complex system codes. The initial development was aimed at providing dynamic risk analysis capabilities to the thermohydraulic code RELAP-7, currently under development at Idaho National Laboratory (INL). Although the initial goal has been fully accomplished, RAVEN is now a multi-purpose stochastic and uncertainty quantification platform, capable of communicating with any system code. In fact, the provided Application Programming Interfaces (APIs) allow RAVEN to interact with any code as long as all the parameters that need to be perturbed are accessible by input files or via python interfaces. RAVEN is capable of investigating system response and explore input space using various sampling schemes such as Monte Carlo, grid, or Latin hypercube. However, RAVEN strength lies in its system feature discovery capabilities such as: constructing limit surfaces, separating regions of the input space leading to system failure, and using dynamic supervised learning techniques. The development of RAVEN started in 2012 when, within the Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program, the need to provide a modern risk evaluation framework arose. RAVEN’s principal assignment is to provide the necessary software and algorithms in order to employ the concepts developed by the Risk Informed Safety Margin Characterization (RISMC) program. RISMC is one of the pathways defined within the Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. In the RISMC approach, the goal is not just to identify the frequency of an event potentially leading to a system failure, but the proximity (or lack thereof) to key safety-related events. Hence, the approach is interested in identifying and increasing the safety margins related to those events. A safety margin is a numerical value quantifying the probability that a safety metric (e.g. peak pressure in a pipe) is exceeded under certain conditions. Most of the capabilities, implemented having RELAP-7 as a principal focus, are easily deployable to other system codes. For this reason, several side activates have been employed (e.g. RELAP5-3D, any MOOSE-based App, etc.) or are currently ongoing for coupling RAVEN with several different software. The aim of this document is to provide a set of commented examples that can help the user to become familiar with the RAVEN code usage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Deep active learning for classifying cancer pathology reports

Abstract Background Automated text classification has many important applications in the clinical setting; however, obtaining labelled data for training machine learning and deep learning models is often difficult and expensive. Active learning techniques may mitigate this challenge by reducing the amount of labelled data required to effectively train a model. In this study, we analyze the effectiveness of 11 active learning algorithms on classifying subsite and histology from cancer pathology reports using a Convolutional Neural Network as the text classification model. Results We compare the performance of each active learning strategy using two differently sized datasets and two different classification tasks. Our results show that on all tasks and dataset sizes, all active learning strategies except diversity-sampling strategies outperformed random sampling, i.e., no active learning. On our large dataset (15K initial labelled samples, adding 15K additional labelled samples each iteration of active learning), there was no clear winner between the different active learning strategies. On our small dataset (1K initial labelled samples, adding 1K additional labelled samples each iteration of active learning), marginal and ratio uncertainty sampling performed better than all other active learning techniques. We found that compared to random sampling, active learning strongly helps performance on rare classes by focusing on underrepresented classes. Conclusions Active learning can save annotation cost by helping human annotators efficiently and intelligently select which samples to label. Our results show that a dataset constructed using effective active learning techniques requires less than half the amount of labelled data to achieve the same performance as a dataset constructed using random sampling.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Particle collisionality in scaled kinetic plasma simulations

Kinetic plasma processes, such as magnetic reconnection, collisionless shocks, and turbulence, are fundamental to the dynamics of astrophysical and laboratory plasmas. Simulating these processes often requires particle-in-cell (PIC) methods, but the computational cost of fully kinetic simulations can necessitate the use of artificial parameters, such as a reduced speed of light and ion-to-electron mass ratio, to decrease expense. While these approximations can preserve overall dynamics under specific conditions, they introduce nontrivial impacts on particle collisionality that are not yet well understood. In this work, we develop a method to scale particle collisionality in simulations employing an artificial speed of light and/or an artificial ion-to-electron mass ratio. By introducing species-dependent scaling factors, we independently adjust inter- and intra-species collision rates to better replicate the collisional properties of the physical system. Our approach maintains the fidelity of electron and ion transport properties while preserving critical relaxation rates, such as energy exchange timescales, within the limits of weakly collisional plasma theory. Furthermore, we demonstrate the accuracy of this scaling method through benchmarking tests against theoretical relaxation rates and connecting to fluid theory, highlighting its ability to retain key transport properties. Existing collisional PIC implementations can be easily modified to include this scaling, which will enable deeper insights into the behavior of marginally collisional plasmas across various contexts.

Totorica, S. R. [Princeton Univ., NJ (United State↗

Role of Three-Dimensional Swirl in Forced Convection Heat Transfer Enhancement in Wavy-Plate-Fin Channels

The influence of wall-corrugation-induced swirl flow on enhanced forced convection in wavy-plate-fin cores has been investigated. Three-dimensional computational simulations were carried out for steady-state periodically developed air flow (Pr ~ 0.71; 50 ≤ Re ≤ 4000) with channel walls subject to constant-uniform temperature conditions. The recirculation that develops in the wall troughs and grows to have an axially helical character is scaled by the Swirl number Sw. As Sw increases with higher flowrate and/or corrugation severity, tornado-shaped vortices appear in the wave trough region midway of the interfin channel height, then extend longitudinally to encompass majority of the flow channel. The local wall-shear and heat transfer coefficient variations indicate that boundary-layer thinning upstream of the wave peak aids in intensifying momentum and heat transfer. However, the flow recirculation in wall trough impedes heat transfer at low Sw due to flow stagnation but promotes it at high Sw because of the vortices-induced augmented fluid mixing. The effects of this secondary flow are quantified by Φf(or j), which is seen to increase log-linearly as fin corrugation aspect ratio γ and/or fin spacing ratio ζ increases; the influence of cross section aspect ratio α is marginal. Moreover, the pressure drag penalty due to swirl critically affects overall pressure loss, and its proportion remains nearly constant when α varies, but grows as Sw, γ, and/or ζ increases and can be as much as 80% of the total pressure drop.

Engineering↗

Semi-Annual Report for Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) Development during Performance Period October 2022-March 2023

Horizontal Compact High Temperature Gas Reactor (HC-HTGR) is being designed by a multi-disciplinary team of nuclear, mechanical, and structural engineers under the support of a DOE-NE Advanced Reactor Demonstration Program’s Advanced Reactor Concepts-20 (ARC-20) award. The objective of this ARC-20 project is to deliver a conceptual design for the proposed HC-HTGR in 3 years and support its commercialization as a safe, low-cost HTGR. Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) is responsible for the design and analysis of the reactor cavity cooling system (RCCS) as a safety system for passive decay heat removal of the reactor concept. Additionally, Argonne is providing analysis of the primary heat transport system to ensure temperatures in the reactor systems, structures and components with significant safety margins during normal operation and design basis accident scenarios. This third semi-annual report summarized the progress made at Argonne on the two tasks during the first half of FY23. As a part of the RCCS design task, a design process for the water panel and the system configuration was performed to improve the thermal performance of the RCCS. The updated water panel design had achieved enhanced thermal performance with 0.96 MWth capability with major design updates made in structural interfaces with the RPV and initial configuration of the water tanks. The loop configuration of the RCCS has been proposed to have two independently working loops for system redundancy. A water panel material study was performed focusing on the use of carbon steel in water systems. Additional modeling strategies of primary system thermal fluids analyses were developed to meet modeling needs that are not well suited for the 1D-3D assembly level approach. The first of these is a reduced order assembly model, in which fuel centered unit cells are used to represent a fuel assembly. The 2D approach used in this model is much more computationally efficient, making this model useful for full core transient scenarios where fuel to coolant heat transfer is still the dominant flow path. The next model is the 3D core conduction model to be used to analyze decay heat removal in loss of primary system flow scenarios. Because these scenarios require a large domain to be modeled, a homogenized core model is being pursued to reduce the required computational costs. To accurately model decay heat scenarios it is necessary to couple a RCCS model to the 3D core conduction model. A simplified case is presented to demonstrate how the coupling methodology will be applied to the full core 3D conduction model.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Impact of Time-Dependent Reactor and Sensor Physics on Core Power Synthesis (Rev.1)

Online synthesis of power distribution is critical in the operation and control of nuclear power reactors to ensure that the core is operating within safety margins and to provide essential knowledge associated with the burnup of the fuel. In light-water reactors, power synthesis is achieved by using some a priori knowledge of the state of the reactor core and updating based on the signals coming from in-core sensors—namely, self-powered neutron detectors (SPNDs). This report examines the effects of fuel burnup and sensor degradation on the ability to accurately synthesize the power distribution in a pressurized water reactor (PWR), considering the typical low-enriched uranium (LEU, 3%-5% enrichment) fuel cycle as well as the higher enrichment LEU+ (5%-8% enrichment) fuel cycle. Several modeling tools were used to simulate power synthesis based on the responses of SPNDs, with emitters made out of Rh or V. A representative PWR LEU core was modeled using the Polaris/Purdue Advanced Reactor Core Simulator (PARCS) approach. The Monte Carlo N-Particle Transport 6 (MCNP6) code was used as well to calculate response functions between different segments of fuel to individual SPNDs; this is a crucial parameter for power synthesis. The Oak Ridge Isotope GENeration (ORIGEN) package in the Standardized Computer Analyses for Licensing Evaluation (SCALE) code was used to model the time-dependent isotopic transmutation in the SPND emitters. All these data were fed into a custom code that enacted the point-based iterative method to simulate power synthesis. Developmental work was also performed on high-fidelity SPND models in the GEometry ANd Tracking 4 (Geant4) code, which enables higher-accuracy modeling of the current responses from SPNDs. In this work, five sets of time-dependent power synthesis test cases were conducted. In these test cases, systematic changes in the input conditions enabled an analysis of the effect of (1) slightly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup, (2) highly inaccurate a priori power distribution assumptions with respect to fuel burnup (such that burnup is not included in the a priori assumed distribution), and (3) differences between Rh and V SPNDs in terms of downstream consequences of the transmutation in the emitters and the extended nature of the LEU+ fuel cycle in comparison with LEU. The authors discovered that one may permissibly have slightly inaccurate a priori assumptions of the fuel burnup (such that the level of burnup may be slightly underapproximated or overapproximated by the accumulated burnup in approximately 9.3 full power days), but to not account for burnup at all in the a priori assumptions leads to severe levels of error, approaching 25% at maximum (for LEU). The authors also discovered that V SPNDs are extraordinarily robust in both the LEU and LEU+ fuel cycles considered in this modeling work, whereas Rh SPNDs undergo significant transmutation that can result in large errors in the synthesized power distribution.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Optimization of rotor blades for combined structural, dynamic, and aerodynamic properties

Optimal helicopter blade design with computer-based mathematical programming has received more and more attention in recent years. Most of the research has focused on optimum dynamic characteristics of rotor blades to reduce vehicle vibration. There is also work on optimization of aerodynamic performance and on composite structural design. This research has greatly increased our understanding of helicopter optimum design in each of these aspects. Helicopter design is an inherently multidisciplinary process involving strong interactions among various disciplines which can appropriately include aerodynamics; dynamics, both flight dynamics and structural dynamics; aeroelasticity: vibrations and stability; and even acoustics. Therefore, the helicopter design process must satisfy manifold requirements related to the aforementioned diverse disciplines. In our present work, we attempt to combine several of these important effects in a unified manner. First, we design a blade with optimum aerodynamic performance by proper layout of blade planform and spanwise twist. Second, the blade is designed to have natural frequencies that are placed away from integer multiples of the rotor speed for a good dynamic characteristics. Third, the structure is made as light as possible with sufficient rotational inertia to allow for autorotational landing, with safe stress margins and flight fatigue life at each cross-section, and with aeroelastical stability and low vibrations. Finally, a unified optimization refines the solution.

He, Cheng-Jian↗

A User’s Guide to the PLTEMP/ANL Code

PLTEMP/ANL V4.4 is a program that obtains a steady-state flow and temperature solution, in geometrical extent, for a nuclear reactor core, or a single fuel assembly, including the effect of manufacturing and modelling uncertainties by the means of hot channel factors. It is based on an evolutionary sequence of codes originally used for calculating plate temperatures, hence “PLTEMP”, developed at Argonne National Laboratory over the past 30 years. Fueled and non-fueled regions are modeled. Each fuel assembly consists of one or more plates or tubes separated by coolant channels. The fuel plates may have one to five layers of different materials, each with heat generation. The width of a fuel plate may be divided into multiple longitudinal stripes, each with its own axial power shape. Depending upon the heat transfer method selected, the temperature solution is effectively 2-dimensional or 3-dimensional. The geometry may be either slab or radial, corresponding to fuel assemblies made of a series of flat (or slightly curved) plates, or of nested tubes. A variety of thermal-hydraulic correlations are available to determine safety margins such as onset of nucleate boiling ratio (ONBR), departure from nucleate boiling ratio (DNBR), and onset of flow instability ratio (OFIR). Coolant properties for either light or heavy water are obtained from FORTRAN functions rather than from tables. The code is intended for thermal-hydraulic analysis of research reactor performance in the sub-cooled boiling regime. Both turbulent and laminar flow regimes can be modeled. Options to calculate both forced flow and natural circulation are available. A general search capability for select design and safety parameters is available to greatly reduce the reactor analyst’s time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

Forced and Unforced Variability of Twentieth Century North American Droughts and Pluvials

Research on the forcing of drought and pluvial events over North America is dominated by general circulation model experiments that often have operational limitations (e.g., computational expense, ability to simulate relevant processes, etc). We use a statistically based modeling approach to investigate sea surface temperature (SST) forcing of the twentieth century pluvial (1905-1917) and drought (1932-1939, 1948-1957, 1998-2002) events. A principal component (PC) analysis of Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) from the North American Drought Atlas separates the drought variability into five leading modes accounting for 62% of the underlying variance. Over the full period spanning these events (1900-2005), the first three PCs significantly correlate with SSTs in the equatorial Pacific (PC 1), North Pacific (PC 2), and North Atlantic (PC 3), with spatial patterns (as defined by the empirical orthogonal functions) consistent with our understanding of North American drought responses to SST forcing. We use a large ensemble statistical modeling approach to determine how successfully we can reproduce these drought/pluvial events using these three modes of variability. Using Pacific forcing only (PCs 1-2), we are able to reproduce the 1948-1957 drought and 1905-1917 pluvial above a 95% random noise threshold in over 90% of the ensemble members; the addition of Atlantic forcing (PCs 1-2-3) provides only marginal improvement. For the 1998-2002 drought, Pacific forcing reproduces the drought above noise in over 65% of the ensemble members, with the addition of Atlantic forcing increasing the number passing to over 80%. The severity of the drought, however, is underestimated in the ensemble median, suggesting this drought intensity can only be achieved through internal variability or other processes. Pacific only forcing does a poor job of reproducing the 1932-1939 drought pattern in the ensemble median, and less than one third of ensemble members exceed the noise threshold (28%). Inclusion of Atlantic forcing improves the ensemble median drought pattern and nearly doubles the number of ensemble members passing the noise threshold (52%). Even with the inclusion of Atlantic forcing, the intensity of the simulated 1932-1939 drought is muted, and the drought itself extends too far into the southwest and southern Great Plains. To an even greater extent than the 1998-2002 drought, these results suggest much of the variance in the 1932-1939 drought is dependent on processes other than SST forcing. This study highlights the importance of internal noise and non SST processes for hydroclimatic variability over North America, complementing existing research using general circulation models.

Cook, Benjamin I.↗

Microcanonical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo

We develop Microcanonical Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (MCHMC), a class of models that follow fixed energy Hamiltonian dynamics, in contrast to Hamiltonian Monte Carlo (HMC), which follows canonical distribution with different energy levels. MCHMC tunes the Hamiltonian function such that the marginal of the uniform distribution on the constant-energy-surface over the momentum variables gives the desired target distribution. We show that MCHMC requires occasional energy-conserving billiard-like momentum bounces for ergodicity, analogous to momentum resampling in HMC. We generalize the concept of bounces to a continuous version with partial direction preserving bounces at every step, which gives energy-conserving underdamped Langevin-like dynamics with non-Gaussian noise (MCLMC). MCHMC and MCLMC exhibit favorable scalings with condition number and dimensionality. We develop an efficient hyperparameter tuning scheme that achieves high performance and consistently outperforms NUTS HMC on several standard benchmark problems, in some cases by orders of magnitude.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Method Improvements in Thermal Analysis of Mach 10 Leading Edges

Several improvements have recently been made in the thermal analysis methods for leading edges of a hypersonic vehicle. The leading edges of this vehicle undergo exceptionally high heat loads that incorporate extreme spatial gradients as well as severe transients. Due to the varying flight conditions, complex geometry, and need for thermal loads at many points along the trajectory, full computational fluid dynamics (CFD) analysis of the aeroheating; loads is not feasible. Thus, engineering methods must be used to determine the aeroheating on the vehicle surfaces, and that must be utilized in the thermal analysis. Over the last year, the thermal analysis of a hypersonic vehicle has been enhanced in several ways. Two different engineering codes are used to predict aeroheating loads: one over the curve near the stagnation point, and the other on flat surfaces downstream of the leading edge. These two are matched together at the intersection point using a method that allows closer approximation of CFD results. User-developed FORTRAN, which is part of the thermal solver PATRAN Thermal, is used to accomplish this. The customizable FORTRAN code also allows use of many different time- and space-dependent factors, interpolation of the heat load in time and space, and inclusion of both highly swept and unswept grid structures. This FORTRAN is available to other PATRAN users who may want to accomplish a similar objective in analysis. Flux, rather than convective coefficient, is used to define heat loads, which allows more accurate analysis as well as better application of margins. Improvements have also been made in more efficient utilization of imported CAD geometry, by creating faces on solids to facilitate load application.

Amundsen, Ruth M.↗

Fluid Dynamics Effects on Microstructure Prediction in Single-Laser Tracks for Additive Manufacturing of IN625

Single-track laser fusion were simulated using a heat-transfer-solidification-only (HTS) model and its extension with fluid dynamics (HTS_FD) model using a parallel open-source code, which included laminar fluid dynamics, flat-free surface of the molten alloy, heat transfer, phase-change, evaporation, and surface tension phenomena. The results illustrate that the fluid dynamics affects the solidification and ensuing microstructure. For the HTS_FD simulations, thermal gradient, G was found to exhibit a maximum at the extremity of the solidified pool ( i.e. , at the free surface), while for HTS simulations, G exhibited a maximum around the entire edge of the solidified pool. HTS_FD simulations predicted a wider range of cooling rates than the HTS simulations, exhibited an increased spread in the solidification speed, V variation within the melt-pool with respect to the HTS model results. Primary dendrite arm spacing (PDAS) were evaluated based on power law correlations and marginal stability theory models using the ( G , V ) from HTS and HTS_FD simulations to quantify the effect of the fluid dynamics on the microstructure. At low-laser powers and low-scan speeds, the PDAS obtained with the fluid dynamics model (HTS_FD) was larger by more than 30 pct with respect to the PDAS calculated with the simple HTS model. A new PDAS correlation, i.e. , \( \lambda_{1} \left[ {\mu {\text{m}}} \right] = 832\;G\left[ {\text{K/m}} \right]^{ - 0.5} V\left[ {\text{m/s}} \right]^{ - 0.25} \) , which uses the ( G , V ) results from the HTS_FD model was developed and validated against experimental results.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗