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NASA NTRS2015

A Modular Framework for Modeling Hardware Elements in Distributed Engine Control Systems

Progress toward the implementation of distributed engine control in an aerospace application may be accelerated through the development of a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) system for testing new control architectures and hardware outside of a physical test cell environment. One component required in an HIL simulation system is a high-fidelity model of the control platform: sensors, actuators, and the control law. The control system developed for the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (C-MAPSS40k) provides a verifiable baseline for development of a model for simulating a distributed control architecture. This distributed controller model will contain enhanced hardware models, capturing the dynamics of the transducer and the effects of data processing, and a model of the controller network. A multilevel framework is presented that establishes three sets of interfaces in the control platform: communication with the engine (through sensors and actuators), communication between hardware and controller (over a network), and the physical connections within individual pieces of hardware. This introduces modularity at each level of the model, encouraging collaboration in the development and testing of various control schemes or hardware designs. At the hardware level, this modularity is leveraged through the creation of a SimulinkR library containing blocks for constructing smart transducer models complying with the IEEE 1451 specification. These hardware models were incorporated in a distributed version of the baseline C-MAPSS40k controller and simulations were run to compare the performance of the two models. The overall tracking ability differed only due to quantization effects in the feedback measurements in the distributed controller. Additionally, it was also found that the added complexity of the smart transducer models did not prevent real-time operation of the distributed controller model, a requirement of an HIL system.

propulsion simulation↗

NASA NTRS2003

Synergism of MODIS Aerosol Remote Sensing from Terra and Aqua

The MODerate-resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) sensors, aboard the Earth Observing System (EOS) Terra and Aqua satellites, are showing excellent competence at measuring the global distribution and properties of aerosols. Terra and Aqua were launched on December 18, 1999 and May 4, 2002 respectively, with daytime equator crossing times of approximately 10:30 am and 1:30 pm respectively. Several aerosol parameters are retrieved at 10-km spatial resolution from MODIS daytime data over land and ocean surfaces. The parameters retrieved include: aerosol optical thickness (AOT) at 0.47, 0.55 and 0.66 micron wavelengths over land, and at 0.47, 0.55, 0.66, 0.87, 1.2, 1.6, and 2.1 microns over ocean; Angstrom exponent over land and ocean; and effective radii, and the proportion of AOT contributed by the small mode aerosols over ocean. Since the beginning of its operation, the quality of Terra-MODIS aerosol products (especially AOT) have been evaluated periodically by cross-correlation with equivalent data sets acquired by ground-based (and occasionally also airborne) sunphotometers, particularly those coordinated within the framework of the AErosol Robotic NETwork (AERONET). Terra-MODIS AOT data have been found to meet or exceed pre-launch accuracy expectations, and have been applied to various studies dealing with local, regional, and global aerosol monitoring. The results of these Terra-MODIS aerosol data validation efforts and studies have been reported in several scientific papers and conferences. Although Aqua-MODIS is still young, it is already yielding formidable aerosol data products, which are also subjected to careful periodic evaluation similar to that implemented for the Terra-MODIS products. This paper presents results of validation of Aqua-MODIS aerosol products with AERONET, as well as comparative evaluation against corresponding Terra-MODIS data. In addition, we show interesting independent and synergistic applications of MODIS aerosol data from both Terra and Aqua. In certain situations, this combined analysis of Terra- and Aqua-MODIS data offers an insight into the diurnal cycle of aerosol loading.

Ichoku, Charles↗

NASA NTRS2005

Stirling Analysis Comparison of Commercial Versus High-Order Methods

Recently, three-dimensional Stirling engine simulations have been accomplished utilizing commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The validations reported can be somewhat inconclusive due to the lack of precise time accurate experimental results from engines, export control/proprietary concerns, and the lack of variation in the methods utilized. The last issue may be addressed by solving the same flow problem with alternate methods. In this work, a comprehensive examination of the methods utilized in the commercial codes is compared with more recently developed high-order methods. Specifically, Lele's compact scheme and Dyson's Ultra Hi-Fi method will be compared with the SIMPLE and PISO methods currently employed in CFD-ACE, FLUENT, CFX, and STAR-CD (all commercial codes which can in theory solve a three-dimensional Stirling model with sliding interfaces and their moving grids limit the effective time accuracy). We will initially look at one-dimensional flows since the current standard practice is to design and optimize Stirling engines with empirically corrected friction and heat transfer coefficients in an overall one-dimensional model. This comparison provides an idea of the range in which commercial CFD software for modeling Stirling engines may be expected to provide accurate results. In addition, this work provides a framework for improving current one-dimensional analysis codes.

Dyson, Rodger W.↗

NASA NTRS2007

Stirling Analysis Comparison of Commercial vs. High-Order Methods

Recently, three-dimensional Stirling engine simulations have been accomplished utilizing commercial Computational Fluid Dynamics software. The validations reported can be somewhat inconclusive due to the lack of precise time accurate experimental results from engines, export control/ proprietary concerns, and the lack of variation in the methods utilized. The last issue may be addressed by solving the same flow problem with alternate methods. In this work, a comprehensive examination of the methods utilized in the commercial codes is compared with more recently developed high-order methods. Specifically, Lele's Compact scheme and Dyson s Ultra Hi-Fi method will be compared with the SIMPLE and PISO methods currently employed in CFD-ACE, FLUENT, CFX, and STAR-CD (all commercial codes which can in theory solve a three-dimensional Stirling model although sliding interfaces and their moving grids limit the effective time accuracy). We will initially look at one-dimensional flows since the current standard practice is to design and optimize Stirling engines with empirically corrected friction and heat transfer coefficients in an overall one-dimensional model. This comparison provides an idea of the range in which commercial CFD software for modeling Stirling engines may be expected to provide accurate results. In addition, this work provides a framework for improving current one-dimensional analysis codes.

Dyson, Rodger W.↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Modular Framework for Modeling Hardware Elements in Distributed Engine Control Systems

Progress toward the implementation of distributed engine control in an aerospace application may be accelerated through the development of a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) system for testing new control architectures and hardware outside of a physical test cell environment. One component required in an HIL simulation system is a high-fidelity model of the control platform: sensors, actuators, and the control law. The control system developed for the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (C-MAPSS40k) provides a verifiable baseline for development of a model for simulating a distributed control architecture. This distributed controller model will contain enhanced hardware models, capturing the dynamics of the transducer and the effects of data processing, and a model of the controller network. A multilevel framework is presented that establishes three sets of interfaces in the control platform: communication with the engine (through sensors and actuators), communication between hardware and controller (over a network), and the physical connections within individual pieces of hardware. This introduces modularity at each level of the model, encouraging collaboration in the development and testing of various control schemes or hardware designs. At the hardware level, this modularity is leveraged through the creation of a Simulink(R) library containing blocks for constructing smart transducer models complying with the IEEE 1451 specification. These hardware models were incorporated in a distributed version of the baseline C-MAPSS40k controller and simulations were run to compare the performance of the two models. The overall tracking ability differed only due to quantization effects in the feedback measurements in the distributed controller. Additionally, it was also found that the added complexity of the smart transducer models did not prevent real-time operation of the distributed controller model, a requirement of an HIL system.

numerical simulation↗

NASA NTRS2014

A Modular Framework for Modeling Hardware Elements in Distributed Engine Control Systems

Progress toward the implementation of distributed engine control in an aerospace application may be accelerated through the development of a hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) system for testing new control architectures and hardware outside of a physical test cell environment. One component required in an HIL simulation system is a high-fidelity model of the control platform: sensors, actuators, and the control law. The control system developed for the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation 40k (40,000 pound force thrust) (C-MAPSS40k) provides a verifiable baseline for development of a model for simulating a distributed control architecture. This distributed controller model will contain enhanced hardware models, capturing the dynamics of the transducer and the effects of data processing, and a model of the controller network. A multilevel framework is presented that establishes three sets of interfaces in the control platform: communication with the engine (through sensors and actuators), communication between hardware and controller (over a network), and the physical connections within individual pieces of hardware. This introduces modularity at each level of the model, encouraging collaboration in the development and testing of various control schemes or hardware designs. At the hardware level, this modularity is leveraged through the creation of a Simulink (R) library containing blocks for constructing smart transducer models complying with the IEEE 1451 specification. These hardware models were incorporated in a distributed version of the baseline C-MAPSS40k controller and simulations were run to compare the performance of the two models. The overall tracking ability differed only due to quantization effects in the feedback measurements in the distributed controller. Additionally, it was also found that the added complexity of the smart transducer models did not prevent real-time operation of the distributed controller model, a requirement of an HIL system.

numerical simulation↗

NASA NTRS2011

Control System Modeling for the Thirty Meter Telescope Primary Mirror

The Thirty Meter Telescope primary mirror is composed of 492 segments that are controlled to high precision in the presence of wind and vibration disturbances, despite the interaction with structural dynamics. The higher bandwidth and larger number of segments compared with the Keck telescopes requires greater attention to modeling to ensure success. We focus here on the development and validation of a suite of quasi-static and dynamic modeling tools required to support the design process, including robustness verification, performance estimation, and requirements flowdown. Models are used to predict the dynamic response due to wind and vibration disturbances, estimate achievable bandwidth in the presence of control-structure-interaction (CSI) and uncertainty in the interaction matrix, and simulate and analyze control algorithms and strategies, e.g. for control of focus-mode, and sensor calibration. Representative results illustrate TMT performance scaling with parameters, but the emphasis is on the modeling framework itself.

uncetainty↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multi-Architecture Approach for Implicit Computational Fluid Dynamics on Unstructured Grids

High-performance computing (HPC) architectures are trending toward manycore paradigms such as graphics processing units (GPUs). Approximately half of the top 100 publicly disclosed supercomputers in the world utilize GPU accelerators for performance. This is in contrast to a decade ago, where there were only a few such machines in the top 100. It is not currently possible to compile and run legacy central processing unit (CPU) software efficiently on GPUs without significant refactoring. Though a number of frameworks offering performance portability exist, none offer a standardized specification that is supported by all major hardware vendors. Additionally, experiences show that obtaining a high percentage of peak performance often requires architecture-specific code. This work details a pragmatic multi-architecture computational fluid dynamics library focused on aerospace problems across the speed range from low subsonic to hypersonic flows involving thermochemical nonequilibrium. A thin abstraction layer above NVIDIA CUDA C++ is utilized, which enables primarily single-source software currently capable of running efficiently on multicore CPUs, NVIDIA GPUs, AMD GPUs, and Intel GPUs. Results on various problems of interest across the speed range are presented and performance is compared between various architectures.

GPU↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

A Multi-Architecture Approach for Implicit Computational Fluid Dynamics on Unstructured Grids

GPU↗

NASA NTRS2019

Comparing Flood-Producing Catastrophic Hurricanes in GEOS: A Study of Juan 1985 and Harvey 2017

Hurricanes Juan (1985) and Harvey (2017) bear remarkable similarities because of the exceptional amount of accumulated precipitation over coastal regions in the Gulf, consequent to the peculiar and rare situation in which a hurricane stalls for several days on a coastal area, displaying minimal progress. This is particularly dangerous because: a) terrestrial drag affect only part of the circulation so that weakening is not as fast as when there is rapid motion inland; b) a part of the circulation remains over water and as such low-level moisture flux convergence is maintained; c) precipitation lasts for a very long time over the same area; d) moisture recycling from flooded areas further contributes to maintaining flood conditions. From the forecast perspective, hurricanes with track singularities such as stalling points, loops, or multiple landfalls over the same region are exceptionally difficult to predict because they result from small variations of opposing mechanisms and are therefore intrinsically unstable. Intensity fluctuations and track singularities are strongly coupled. The representation of fluxes undergoing differential drag (ocean vs. land) inside the same circulation is critically dependent upon resolution. Recent modeling development efforts within the NASA Global Modeling and Assimilation Office (GMAO) have brought the horizontal resolution of the global cubed-sphere Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) atmospheric model down to 12 km. This has led to innovative findings in the field of tropical cyclone (TC) modeling within a global framework. The GEOS atmospheric model and data assimilation system (DAS), used to produce the MERRA-2 (Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications) reanalysis, has a "Replay" capability that adds a forcing term to the model equations to constrain it to follow a specified trajectory. This capability is used to produce global, downscaled versions of the 50 km MERRA-2 reanalysis at a 12.5 km resolution. The full DAS and replay modes both use the Incremental Analysis Update or IAU for applying an analysis increment to the model's background state four times each day at 00Z, 06Z, 12Z and 18Z. In a full DAS mode, a six-hour free run of the model is made (Predictor Step), writing states that will be used as backgrounds or first-guesses for the analysis centered on 00Z. The Analysis system then produces its best estimate of the 00Z state by blending backgrounds with observations. The difference between this best estimate and the model's original first guess at 00Z is treated as an analysis increment and added uniformly as a forcing term to the model during a second, now forced, run of the 12Z to 03Z window, which produces the assimilated results. Replay mode is very similar, except only the 00Z background is needed from the predictor segment, which is thus half as long, and instead of doing an analysis, a previously analyzed state at 00Z is read in. The increment is then computed and applied to the corrector step in the same way as in the original DAS. When downscaling horizontal spatial filters can be applied to the "analysis" increment used to force the Corrector step, so as to reproduce the full meteorological state or selectively choose or discard certain forcings. In this presentation, full global hindcast simulations of Juan and operational forecasts of Harvey are compared.

Flooding↗

NASA NTRS2022

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems

Space Communications Responsive to Events Across Missions (SCREAM): An Investigation of Network Solutions for Transient Science Space Systems The National Academies have prioritized the pursuit of new scientific discoveries using diverse and temporally coordinated measurements from multiple ground and space-based observatories. Networked communications can enable such measurements by connecting individual observatories and allowing them to operate as a cohesive and purposefully designed system. Timely data flows across terrestrial and space communications networks are required to observe transient scientific events and processes. Currently, communications to space-based observatories experience large latencies due to manual service reservation and scheduling procedures, intermittent signal coverage, and network capacity constraints. If space communications network latencies could be reduced, new discoveries about dynamic scientific processes could be realized. However, science mission and network planners lack a systematic framework for defining, quantifying and evaluating timely space data flow implementation options for transient scientific observation scenarios involving multiple ground and space-based observatories. This dissertation presents a model-based systems engineering approach to investigate and develop network solutions to meet the needs of transient science space systems. First, a systematic investigation of the current transient science operations of the National Aeronautics and Space Administration’s (NASA) Tracking and Data Relay Satellite (TDRS) space data network and the Neil Gehrels Swift Observatory resulted in a formal architectural model for transient science space systems. Two methods individual missions may use to achieve timely network services were defined, quantitatively modeled, and experimentally compared. Next, the architectural model was extended to describe two alternative ways to achieve timely and autonomous space data flows to multiple space-based observatories within the context of a purposefully designed transient science observation scenario. A quantitative multipoint space data flow modeling method based in queueing theory was defined. General system suitability metrics for timeliness, throughput, and capacity were specified to support the evaluation of alternative network data flow implementations. A hypothetical design study was performed to demonstrate the multipoint data flow modeling method and to evaluate alternative data flow implementations using TDRS. The merits of a proposed future TDRS broadcast service to implement multipoint data flows were quantified and compared to expected outcomes using the as-built TDRS network. Then, the architectural model was extended to incorporate commercial network service providers. Quantitative models for Globalstar and Iridium short messaging data services were developed based on publicly available sources. Financial cost was added to the set of system suitability metrics. The hypothetical design study was extended to compare the relative suitability of the as-built TDRS network with the commercial Globalstar and Iridium networks. Finally, results from this research are being applied by NASA missions and network planners. In 2020, Swift implemented the first automated command pipeline, increasing its expected gravitational wave follow-up detection rate by greater than 400%. Current NASA technology initiatives informed by this research will enable future space-based observatories to become interoperable sensing devices connected by a diverse ecosystem of network service providers.

Christopher J. Roberts↗

NASA NTRS2022

Mars Terrain Segmentation with Less Labels

Planetary rover systems need to perform terrain segmentation to identify drivable areas as well as identify specific types of soil for sample collection. The latest Martian terrain segmentation methods rely on supervised learning which is very data hungry and difficult to train where only a small number of labeled samples are available. Moreover, the semantic classes are defined differently for different applications (e.g., rover traversal vs. geological) and as a result the network has to be trained from scratch each time, which is an inefficient use of resources. This research proposes a semi-supervised learning framework for Mars terrain segmentation where a deep segmentation network trained in an unsupervised manner on unlabeled images is transferred to the task of terrain segmentation trained on few labeled images. The network incorporates a backbone module which is trained using a contrastive loss function and an output atrous convolution module which is trained using a pixel-wise cross-entropy loss function. Evaluation results using the metric of segmentation accuracy show that the proposed method with contrastive pre-training outperforms plain supervised learning by 2%-10%. Moreover, the proposed model is able to achieve a segmentation accuracy of 91.1% using only 161 training images (1% of the original dataset) compared to 81.9% with plain supervised learning.

Wilson, Brian D↗

NASA NTRS1984

Boolean difference equations. I - Formulation and dynamic behavior

In many biological and physical systems, feedback mechanisms depend on a set of thresholds associated with the state variables. Each feedback has a characteristic time scale. It is suggested that delay-difference equations for Boolean-valued variables are an appropriate mathematical framework for such situations: the feedback thresholds result in the discrete, on-off character of the variables, and the interaction time scales of the feedbacks are expressed as delays. The initial-value problem for Boolean delay equations (B-Delta-Es) is formulated, and shown to have unique solutions for all times. Examples of periodic and aperiodic solutions are given. Aperiodic solutions have increasing complexity which depends on time t roughly as t to the l-1 power, l being the number of delays. Stability of solutions is defined, and some examples of stability analysis are given; additional stability questions are raised. The present formulation of (B-Delta-Es) is compared with related work and generalizations are suggested.

Dee, D.↗

NASA NTRS2022

Flows in Enthalpy-based Thermal Evolution of Loops

Plasma-filled loop structures are common in the solar corona. Because detailed modeling of the dynamical evolution of these structures is computationally costly, an efficient method for computing approximate but quick physics-based solutions is to rely on space-integrated 0D simulations. The enthalpy-based thermal evolution of loops (EBTEL) framework is a commonly used method to study the exchange of mass and energy between the corona and transition region. EBTEL solves for density, temperature, and pressure, averaged over the coronal part of the loop, velocity at coronal base, and the instantaneous differential emission measure distribution in the transition region. The current single-fluid version of the code, EBTEL2, assumes that at all stages the flows are subsonic. However, sometimes the solutions show the presence of supersonic flows during the impulsive phase of heat input. It is thus necessary to account for this effect. Here, we upgrade EBTEL2 to EBTEL3 by including the kinetic energy term in the Navier–Stokes equation. We compare the solutions from EBTEL3 with those obtained using EBTEL2, as well as the state-of-the-art field-aligned hydrodynamics code HYDRAD. We find that the match in pressure between EBTEL3 and HYDRAD is better than that between EBTEL2 and HYDRAD. Additionally, the velocities predicted by EBTEL3 are in close agreement with those obtained with HYDRAD when the flows are subsonic. However, EBTEL3 solutions deviate substantially from HYDRAD’s when the latter predicts supersonic flows. Using the mismatches in the solution, we propose a criterion to determine the conditions under which EBTEL can be used to study flows in the system.

Solar coronal heating↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Enhanced Simulation Techniques in Predicting Sonic Boom Loudness Using CFD

This paper outlines advancements in predicting sonic boom loudness within the Launch, Ascent, and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational framework. Traditionally, a two step process consisting of a steady state computational fluid dynamics problem for near-field analysis and a far-field propagation solver for calculation of loudness metrics has been used. Improvements to this process made in this work include utilizing a high-order space marching method for mid-field computations, developing a novel output-based mesh adaptation method targeting error in near-field pressure sig-natures, and developing a robust scripting system using curvilinear grids to increase robustness and simplify the process of running large databases of simulation cases. These advancements are detailed and applied to the simulation of the X-59, presenting comparative cost and timing analyses between the prior two step workflow and the current three step procedure. We achieve increased accuracy and robustness for loudness predictions with at least a50%computational cost reduction.

CST↗

NASA NTRS2001

Ranges of Applicability for the Continuum-beam Model in the Constitutive Analysis of Carbon Nanotubes: Nanotubes or Nano-beams?

Ranges of validity for the continuum-beam model, the length-scale effects and continuum assumptions are analyzed in the framework of scaling analysis of NT structure. Two coupled criteria for the applicability of the continuum model are presented. Scaling analysis of NT buckling and geometric parameters (e.g., diameter and length) is carried out to determine the key non-dimensional parameters that control the buckling strains and modes of NT buckling. A model applicability map, which represents two classes of NTs, is constructed in the space of non-dimensional parameters. In an analogy with continuum mechanics, a mechanical law of geometric similitude is presented for two classes of beam-like NTs having different geometries. Expressions for the critical buckling loads and strains are tailored for the distinct groups of NTs and compared with the data provided by the molecular dynamics simulations. Implications for molecular dynamics simulations and the NT-based scanning probes are discussed.

Harik, Vasyl Michael↗

NASA NTRS2008

Provenance in Data Interoperability for Multi-Sensor Intercomparison

As our inventory of Earth science data sets grows, the ability to compare, merge and fuse multiple datasets grows in importance. This requires a deeper data interoperability than we have now. Efforts such as Open Geospatial Consortium and OPeNDAP (Open-source Project for a Network Data Access Protocol) have broken down format barriers to interoperability; the next challenge is the semantic aspects of the data. Consider the issues when satellite data are merged, cross-calibrated, validated, inter-compared and fused. We must match up data sets that are related, yet different in significant ways: the phenomenon being measured, measurement technique, location in space-time or quality of the measurements. If subtle distinctions between similar measurements are not clear to the user, results can be meaningless or lead to an incorrect interpretation of the data. Most of these distinctions trace to how the data came to be: sensors, processing and quality assessment. For example, monthly averages of satellite-based aerosol measurements often show significant discrepancies, which might be due to differences in spatio- temporal aggregation, sampling issues, sensor biases, algorithm differences or calibration issues. Provenance information must be captured in a semantic framework that allows data inter-use tools to incorporate it and aid in the intervention of comparison or merged products. Semantic web technology allows us to encode our knowledge of measurement characteristics, phenomena measured, space-time representation, and data quality attributes in a well-structured, machine-readable ontology and rulesets. An analysis tool can use this knowledge to show users the provenance-related distrintions between two variables, advising on options for further data processing and analysis. An additional problem for workflows distributed across heterogeneous systems is retrieval and transport of provenance. Provenance may be either embedded within the data payload, or transmitted from server to client in an out-of-band mechanism. The out of band mechanism is more flexible in the richness of provenance information that can be accomodated, but it relies on a persistent framework and can be difficult for legacy clients to use. We are prototyping the embedded model, incorporating provenance within metadata objects in the data payload. Thus, it always remains with the data. The downside is a limit to the size of provenance metadata that we can include, an issue that will eventually need resolution to encompass the richness of provenance information required for daata intercomparison and merging.

Lynnes, Chris↗

NASA NTRS2014

Drought Prediction for Socio-Cultural Stability Project

The primary objective of this project is to answer the question: "Can existing, linked infrastructures be used to predict the onset of drought months in advance?" Based on our work, the answer to this question is "yes" with the qualifiers that skill depends on both lead-time and location, and especially with the associated teleconnections (e.g., ENSO, Indian Ocean Dipole) active in a given region season. As part of this work, we successfully developed a prototype drought early warning system based on existing/mature NASA Earth science components including the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System Version 5 (GEOS-5) forecasting model, the Land Information System (LIS) land data assimilation software framework, the Catchment Land Surface Model (CLSM), remotely sensed terrestrial water storage from the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE) and remotely sensed soil moisture products from the Aqua/Advanced Microwave Scanning Radiometer - EOS (AMSR-E). We focused on a single drought year - 2011 - during which major agricultural droughts occurred with devastating impacts in the Texas-Mexico region of North America (TEXMEX) and the Horn of Africa (HOA). Our results demonstrate that GEOS-5 precipitation forecasts show skill globally at 1-month lead, and can show up to 3 months skill regionally in the TEXMEX and HOA areas. Our results also demonstrate that the CLSM soil moisture percentiles are a goof indicator of drought, as compared to the North American Drought Monitor of TEXMEX and a combination of Famine Early Warning Systems Network (FEWS NET) data and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectrometer (MODIS)'s Normalizing Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) anomalies over HOA. The data assimilation experiments produced mixed results. GRACE terrestrial water storage (TWS) assimilation was found to significantly improve soil moisture and evapotransportation, as well as drought monitoring via soil moisture percentiles, while AMSR-E soil moisture assimilation produced marginal benefits. We carried out 1-3 month lead-time forecast experiments using GEOS-5 forecasts as input to LIS/CLSM. Based on these forecast experiments, we find that the expected skill in GEOS-5 forecasts from 1-3 months is present in the soil moisture percentiles used to indicate drought. In the case of the HOA drought, the failure of the long rains in April appears in the February 1, March 1 and April 1 initialized forecasts, suggesting that for this case, drought forecasting would have provided some advance warning about the drought conditions observed in 2011. Three key recommendations for follow-up work include: (1) carry out a comprehensive analysis of droughts observed over the entire period of record for GEOS-5 forecasts; (2) continue to analyze the GEOS-5 forecasts in HOA stratifying by anomalies in long and short rains; and (3) continue to include GRACE TWS, Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity (SMOS) and the upcoming NASA Soil Moisture Active/Passive (SMAP) soil moisture products in a routine activity building on this prototype to further quantify the benefits for drought assessment and prediction.

Peters-Lidard, Christa↗