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DOE OSTI2014

Cloud-based Architecture Capabilities Summary Report

In collaborating scientific research arena it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared of information documents, software tools and be able to accurately maintain and track historical changes in models. A new cloud-based environment would be accessible remotely from anywhere regardless of computing platforms given that the platform has available of Internet access and proper browser capabilities. Information stored at this environment would be restricted based on user assigned credentials. This report reviews development of a Cloud-based Architecture Capabilities (CAC) as a web portal for PRA tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2014

LineVISAR: A Fringe-Trace Data Analysis Program

The line-imaging ORVIS or VISAR provides velocity as a function of position and time for a line on an experimental setup via a streak camera record of interference fringes. This document describes a Matlab-based program which guides the user through the process of converting these fringe data to a velocity surface. The data reduction is of the "fringe trace" type, wherein the changes in velocity at a given position on the line are calculated based on fringe motion past that point. The analyst must establish the fringe behavior up front, aided by peak-finding routines in the program. However, the later work of using fringe jumps to compensate for phase problems in other analysis techniques is greatly reduced. This program is not a standard GUI construction, and is prescriptive. At various points it saves the progress, allowing later restarts from those points.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

AskIT Service Desk Support Value Model

The value model discussed herein provides an accurate and simple calculation of the funding required to adequately staff the AskIT Service Desk (SD). The model is incremental – only technical labor cost is considered. All other costs, such as management, equipment, buildings, HVAC, and training are considered common elements of providing any labor related IT Service. Depending on the amount of productivity loss and the number of hours the defect was unresolved, the value of resolving work from the SD is unquestionably an economic winner; the average cost of $\$$16 per SD resolution can commonly translate to cost avoidance exceeding well over $\$$100. Attempting to extract too much from the SD will likely create a significant downside. The analysis used to develop the value model indicates that the utilization of the SD is very high (approximately 90%). As a benchmark, consider a comment from a manager at Vitalyst (a commercial IT service desk) that their utilization target is approximately 60%. While high SD utilization is impressive, over the long term it is likely to cause unwanted consequences to staff such as higher turnover, illness, or burnout. A better solution is to staff the SD so that analysts have time to improve skills through training, develop knowledge, improve processes, collaborate with peers, and improve customer relationship skills.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Vulnerability Assessments and Resilience Planning at Federal Facilities. Preliminary Synthesis of Project

U.S. government agencies are now directed to assess the vulnerability of their operations and facilities to climate change and to develop adaptation plans to increase their resilience. Specific guidance on methods is still evolving based on the many different available frameworks. Agencies have been experimenting with these frameworks and approaches. This technical paper synthesizes lessons and insights from a series of research case studies conducted by the investigators at facilities of the U.S. Department of Energy and the Department of Defense. The purpose of the paper is to solicit comments and feedback from interested program managers and analysts before final conclusions are published. The paper describes the characteristics of a systematic process for prioritizing needs for adaptation planning at individual facilities and examines requirements and methods needed. It then suggests a framework of steps for vulnerability assessments at Federal facilities and elaborates on three sets of methods required for assessments, regardless of the detailed framework used. In a concluding section, the paper suggests a roadmap to further develop methods to support agencies in preparing for climate change. The case studies point to several preliminary conclusions; (1) Vulnerability assessments are needed to translate potential changes in climate exposure to estimates of impacts and evaluation of their significance for operations and mission attainment, in other words into information that is related to and useful in ongoing planning, management, and decision-making processes; (2) To increase the relevance and utility of vulnerability assessments to site personnel, the assessment process needs to emphasize the characteristics of the site infrastructure, not just climate change; (3) A multi-tiered framework that includes screening, vulnerability assessments at the most vulnerable installations, and adaptation design will efficiently target high-risk sites and infrastructure; (4) Vulnerability assessments can be connected to efforts to improve facility resilience to motivate participation; and (5) Efficient, scalable methods for vulnerability assessment can be developed, but additional case studies and evaluation are required.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2012

Annual Energy Review 2011

The Annual Energy Review (AER) is the U.S. Energy Information Administration's (EIA) primary report of annual historical energy statistics. For many series, data begin with the year 1949. Included are statistics on total energy production, consumption, trade, and energy prices; overviews of petroleum, natural gas, coal, electricity, nuclear energy, and renewable energy; financial and environment indicators; and data unit conversions. Publication of this report is required under Public Law 95–91 (Department of Energy Organization Act), Section 205(c), and is in keeping with responsibilities given to the EIA under Section 205(a)(2), which states: “The Administrator shall be responsible for carrying out a central, comprehensive, and unified energy data and information program which will collect, evaluate, assemble, analyze, and disseminate data and information....” The AER is intended for use by Members of Congress, Federal and State agencies, energy analysts, and the general public. EIA welcomes suggestions from readers regarding the content of the AER and other EIA publications.

Fichman, Barbara T.↗
DOE OSTI2015

Preliminary Results on Uncertainty Quantification for Pattern Analytics

This report summarizes preliminary research into uncertainty quantification for pattern analytics within the context of the Pattern Analytics to Support High-Performance Exploitation and Reasoning (PANTHER) project. The primary focus of PANTHER was to make large quantities of remote sensing data searchable by analysts. The work described in this report adds nuance to both the initial data preparation steps and the search process. Search queries are transformed from does the specified pattern exist in the data? to how certain is the system that the returned results match the query? We show example results for both data processing and search, and discuss a number of possible improvements for each.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Simulating Aftershocks for an On Site Inspection (OSI) Exercise

The experience of IFE14 emphasizes the need for a better way to simulate aftershocks during an OSI exercise. The obvious approach is to develop a digital model of aftershocks that can be used either for a real field exercise or for a computer simulation that can be done in an office, for training for example. However, this approach involves consideration of several aspects, such as how and when to introduce waveforms in a way that maximizes the realism of the data and that will be convincing to a savvy, experienced seismic analyst. The purpose of this report is to outline a plan for how this approach can be implemented.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

Lessons Learned from the Development of an Example Precision Information Environment for International Safeguards

The International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) is interested in increasing capabilities of IAEA safeguards inspectors to access information that would improve their situational awareness on the job. A mobile information platform could potentially provide access to information, analytics, and technical and logistical support to inspectors in the field, as well as providing regular updates to analysts at IAEA Headquarters in Vienna or at satellite offices. To demonstrate the potential capability of such a system, Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL) implemented a number of example capabilities within a PNNL-developed precision information environment (PIE), and using a tablet as a mobile information platform. PNNL’s safeguards proof-of-concept PIE intends to; demonstrate novel applications of mobile information platforms to international safeguards use cases; demonstrate proof-of-principle capability implementation; and provide “vision” for capabilities that could be implemented. This report documents the lessons learned from this two-year development activity for the Precision Information Environment for International Safeguards (PIE-IS), describing the developed capabilities, technical challenges, and considerations for future development, so that developers working to develop a similar system for the IAEA or other safeguards agencies might benefit from our work.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗
DOE OSTI2015

Dakota Technical Support and Optimization Software Improvements

Caterpillar and Sandia continued its partnership to improve Sandia’s Dakota software product and effectively deploy it to Caterpillar engineering design and analysis problems. Dakota use by Caterpillar analysts identified several challenges, which led to Sandia enhancements and bug fixes to Dakota. These benefit both Caterpillar and the Sandia Dakota user community.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

Guidance for the Design and Adoption of Analytic Tools.

The goal is to make software developers aware of common issues that can impede the adoption of analytic tools. This paper provides a summary of guidelines, lessons learned and existing research to explain what is currently known about what analysts want and how to better understand what tools they do and don't need.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2015

A User's Guide to the PLTEMP/ANL Code

PLTEMP/ANL V4.2 is a FORTRAN program that obtains a steady-state flow and temperature solution for a nuclear reactor core, or for a single fuel assembly. It is based on an evolutionary sequence of ''PLTEMP'' codes in use at ANL for the past 20 years. Fueled and non-fueled regions are modeled. Each fuel assembly consists of one or more plates or tubes separated by coolant channels. The fuel plates may have one to five layers of different materials, each with heat generation. The width of a fuel plate may be divided into multiple longitudinal stripes, each with its own axial power shape. The temperature solution is effectively 2-dimensional. It begins with a one-dimensional solution across all coolant channels and fuel plates/tubes within a given fuel assembly, at the entrance to the assembly. The temperature solution is repeated for each axial node along the length of the fuel assembly. The geometry may be either slab or radial, corresponding to fuel assemblies made of a series of flat (or slightly curved) plates, or of nested tubes. A variety of thermal-hydraulic correlations are available with which to determine safety margins such as Onset-of- Nucleate boiling (ONB), departure from nucleate boiling (DNB), and onset of flow instability (FI). Coolant properties for either light or heavy water are obtained from FORTRAN functions rather than from tables. The code is intended for thermal-hydraulic analysis of research reactor performance in the sub-cooled boiling regime. Both turbulent and laminar flow regimes can be modeled. Options to calculate both forced flow and natural circulation are available. A general search capability is available (Appendix XII) to greatly reduce the reactor analyst’s time.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
DOE OSTI2015

Estimating Price Elasticity using Market-Level Appliance Data

This report provides and update to and expansion upon our 2008 LBNL report “An Analysis of the Price Elasticity of Demand for Appliances,” in which we estimated an average relative price elasticity of -0.34 for major household appliances (Dale and Fujita 2008). Consumer responsiveness to price change is a key component of energy efficiency policy analysis; these policies influence consumer purchases through price both explicitly and implicitly. However, few studies address appliance demand elasticity in the U.S. market and public data sources are generally insufficient for rigorous estimation. Therefore, analysts have relied on a small set of outdated papers focused on limited appliance types, assuming long-term elasticities estimated for other durables (e.g., vehicles) decades ago are applicable to current and future appliance purchasing behavior. We aim to partially rectify this problem in the context of appliance efficiency standards by revisiting our previous analysis, utilizing data released over the last ten years and identifying additional estimates of durable goods price elasticities in the literature. Reviewing the literature, we find the following ranges of market-level price elasticities: -0.14 to -0.42 for appliances; -0.30 to -1.28 for automobiles; -0.47 to -2.55 for other durable goods. Brand price elasticities are substantially higher for these product groups, with most estimates -2.0 or more elastic. Using market-level shipments, sales value, and efficiency level data for 1989-2009, we run various iterations of a log-log regression model, arriving at a recommended range of short run appliance price elasticity between -0.4 and -0.5, with a default value of -0.45.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2015

Framework Development Supporting the Safety Portal

In a collaborating scientific research arena it is important to have an environment where analysts have access to a shared repository of information, documents, and software tools, and be able to accurately maintain and track historical changes in models. The new Safety Portal cloud-based environment will be accessible remotely from anywhere regardless of computing platforms given that the platform has available Internet access and proper browser capabilities. Information stored at this environment would be restricted based on user assigned credentials. This report discusses current development of a cloud-based web portal for PRA tools.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2016

2015 Cross-Domain Deterrence Seminar Bibliography

In November 2015, the Center for Global Security Research, NSO, and Global Security program jointly sponsored a seminar investigating questions related to cross-domain deterrence at Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory. At the seminar, experts were asked to moderate discussion based on the four topics below. For each of these topics, we have compiled a short list of literature that will help analysts develop a baseline understanding of the issue.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Lecture Notes on Criticality Safety Validation Using MCNP & Whisper

Training classes for nuclear criticality safety, MCNP documentation. The need for, and problems surrounding, validation of computer codes and data area considered first. Then some background for MCNP & Whisper is given--best practices for Monte Carlo criticality calculations, neutron spectra, S(α,β) thermal neutron scattering data, nuclear data sensitivities, covariance data, and correlation coefficients. Whisper is computational software designed to assist the nuclear criticality safety analyst with validation studies with the Monte Carlo radiation transport package MCNP. Whisper's methodology (benchmark selection – C k 's, weights; extreme value theory – bias, bias uncertainty; MOS for nuclear data uncertainty – GLLS) and usage are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2015

3D Simulation of External Flooding Events for the RISMC Pathway

Incorporating 3D simulations as part of the Risk-Informed Safety Margins Characterization (RISMIC) Toolkit allows analysts to obtain a more complete picture of complex system behavior for events including external plant hazards. External events such as flooding have become more important recently – however these can be analyzed with existing and validated simulated physics toolkits. In this report, we describe these approaches specific to flooding-based analysis using an approach called Smoothed Particle Hydrodynamics. The theory, validation, and example applications of the 3D flooding simulation are described. Integrating these 3D simulation methods into computational risk analysis provides a spatial/visual aspect to the design, improves the realism of results, and can prove visual understanding to validate the analysis of flooding.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2016

Thinking Globally about U.S. Extended Deterrence

In contrast to the Cold War bilateral global competition between the United States and the Soviet Union, the modern nuclear age features a more complex, multiplayer arena on the regional scale. With the exception of the U.S. and Russia, most major powers retain relatively small nuclear arsenals or technical hedge capabilities. The U.S., with strong interests and security partnerships in Europe, Northeast Asia, and the Middle East, must navigate through long-standing rivalries and active conflicts while attempting to divine the intentions of less experienced nuclear decision makers in charge of weak domestic institutions. As a result, analysts and policymakers must think globally about U.S. extended deterrence. How have the requirements of extended deterrence and assurance changed? Are there important threads that connect each region? What should the U.S. do differently? To explore these questions, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory’s Center for Global Security Research, in partnership with the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and the Pacific Forum CSIS, held a workshop on “Thinking Globally about U.S. Extended Deterrence” in Washington, DC on November 2, 2015. The workshop brought together approximately 40 U.S. and foreign deterrence specialists and government officials, all attending in their private capacities. The participants joined a day of not-for-attribution discussions on the changing deterrence and assurance requirements, the threads that connect the regions, and U.S. strategy to deal with emerging challenges. The following is a summary of key takeaways.

98 NUCLEAR DISARMAMENT, SAFEGUARDS, AND PHYSICAL P↗
DOE OSTI2016

ORIGAMI Automator Primer. Automated ORIGEN Source Terms and Spent Fuel Storage Pool Analysis

Source terms and spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage pool decay heat load analyses for operating nuclear power plants require a large number of Oak Ridge Isotope Generation and Depletion (ORIGEN) calculations. SNF source term calculations also require a significant amount of bookkeeping to track quantities such as core and assembly operating histories, spent fuel pool (SFP) residence times, heavy metal masses, and enrichments. The ORIGEN Assembly Isotopics (ORIGAMI) module in the SCALE code system provides a simple scheme for entering these data. However, given the large scope of the analysis, extensive scripting is necessary to convert formats and process data to create thousands of ORIGAMI input files (one per assembly) and to process the results into formats readily usable by follow-on analysis tools. This primer describes a project within the SCALE Fulcrum graphical user interface (GUI) called ORIGAMI Automator that was developed to automate the scripting and bookkeeping in large-scale source term analyses. The ORIGAMI Automator enables the analyst to (1) easily create, view, and edit the reactor site and assembly information, (2) automatically create and run ORIGAMI inputs, and (3) analyze the results from ORIGAMI. ORIGAMI Automator uses the standard ORIGEN binary concentrations files produced by ORIGAMI, with concentrations available at all time points in each assembly’s life. The GUI plots results such as mass, concentration, activity, and decay heat using a powerful new ORIGEN Post-Processing Utility for SCALE (OPUS) GUI component. This document includes a description and user guide for the GUI, a step-by-step tutorial for a simplified scenario, and appendices that document the file structures used.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗