Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “Aging analysis”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 721 records · Page 40
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating the Effectiveness of Soil Profile Rehabilitation for Pluvial Flood Mitigation Through Two-Dimensional Hydrodynamic Modeling

Pluvial flooding, driven by increasingly impervious surfaces and intense storm events, presents a growing challenge for urban areas worldwide. In Baltimore City, MD, USA, climate change, rapid urbanization, and aging stormwater infrastructure are exacerbating flooding impacts, resulting in significant socio-economic consequences. This study evaluated the effectiveness of a soil profile rehabilitation scenario using a 2D hydrodynamic modeling approach for the Tiffany Run watershed, Baltimore City. This study utilized different extreme storm events, a high-resolution (1 m) LiDAR Digital Terrain Model (DTM), building footprints, and hydrological soil data. These datasets were integrated into a fully coupled 2D hydrodynamic model, the City Catchment Analysis Tool (CityCAT), to simulate urban flood dynamics. The pre-soil rehabilitation simulation revealed a maximum water depth of 3.00 m in most areas, with hydrologic soil groups C and D, especially downstream of the study area. The post-soil rehabilitation simulation was targeted at vacant lots and public parcels, accounting for 33.20% of the total area of the watershed. This resulted in a reduced water depth of 2.50 m. Additionally, the baseline runoff coefficient of 0.49 decreased to 0.47 following the rehabilitation, and the model consistently recorded a peak runoff reduction rate of 4.10 across varying rainfall intensities. The validation using a contingency matrix demonstrated true-positive rates of 0.75, 0.50, 0.64, and 0 for the selected events, confirming the model’s capability at capturing real-world flood occurrences.

Baltimore City↗
DOE OSTI2019

Stent-Retriever Thrombectomy and Rescue Treatment of M1 Occlusions Due to Underlying Intracranial Atherosclerotic Stenosis: Cohort Analysis and Review of the Literature

Background and Purpose: Data on the management of large vessel occlusion in patients with anterior circulation acute ischemic stroke (AIS) due to underlying intracranial stenosis are scarce. The aim of this retrospective study was to compare endovascular treatment and outcome in AIS patients with and without underlying stenosis of the M1 segment. Materials and Methods: A total of 533 acute stroke patients with an isolated M1 occlusion who underwent mechanical thrombectomy between 02/2010 and 08/2017 were included. Underlying intracranial atherosclerotic stenosis (ICAS) was present in 10 patients (1.9%), whereas 523 patients (98.1%) had an embolic occlusion without stenosis. Results: There was no difference in age, admission National Institutes of Health Stroke Scale, risk factors, Alberta stroke program early CT score or collaterals between the groups. Procedure time (155 vs 40 min, P = 0.001) was significantly longer in the ICAS group where rescue stent-angioplasty was performed in all patients. There was no statistical difference in final modified thrombolysis in cerebral infarction score between both groups (70 vs 88%, P = 0.115). Favorable outcome (modified Rankin Scale ≤ 2) at 90 days was less frequent in patients with ICAS than in the embolic group (0 vs 49.4%, P = 0.004). The mortality rate tended to be higher in the ICAS group (44.4 vs 19.4%, P = 0.082). Conclusion: In patients with AIS, rescue therapy with stent placement to treat underlying ICAS of the M1 segment is technically feasible; however, in our study, a significantly lower rate of favorable outcome was observed in these patients compared to those with thromboembolic M1 occlusions. Level of Evidence: Level 3, non-randomized controlled study.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2021

An uncertainty-focused database approach to extract spatiotemporal trends from qualitative and discontinuous lake-status histories

Changes in lake status are often interpreted as palaeoclimate indicators due to their dependence on precipitation and evaporation. The Global Lake Status Database (GLSDB) has since long provided a standardised synopsis of qualitative lake status over the last 30,000 14C years. Potential sources of uncertainty however are not recorded in the GLSDB. Here we present an updated and improved relational-database framework that incorporates uncertainty in both chronology and the interpretation of palaeoenvironmental data. The database uses peer-reviewed palaeolimnological studies to produce a consensus on qualitative lake-status histories, whose chronologies are revised and standardized through the recalibration of radiocarbon dates and the application of Bayesian age-depth modelling for stratigraphic archives. Quantitative information on absolute water-level elevation is preserved if available from geomorphological sources. We also propose a new probabilistic analytical framework that accounts for these uncertainties to reconstruct synoptic, integrated environmental signals. The process is based on a Monte Carlo algorithm that iteratively samples individual lake-status histories within the limits of their uncertainties to produce many possible scenarios. We then use Recursively-Subtracted Empirical Orthogonal Function analysis to extract dominant patterns of lake-status variability from these scenarios. As a proof of concept, we apply this framework to 67 sites in eastern and southern Africa whose lake-status histories cover part of the late Pleistocene and/or Holocene. We show that, despite the sometimes large temporal and interpretation uncertainties, and the inclusion of highly discontinuous lake-status time series, identifying the major known millennial-scale climatic phases during the last 20,000 years is possible. Our framework was also able to identify an antiphased response between the lake basins in eastern and interior southern Africa to these changes. Here, we propose that our new database and methodology framework serves as a template for efficient lake-status data synthesis, encourages the incorporation of lake-status data in palaeoclimate syntheses, and expands the possibilities for the use of such data in the evaluation of climate models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

In Situ Investigation of Upper Airway Occlusion in Sleep Disordered Breathing Using Ultrasonic Transducer Arrays

This work presents a novel application of ultrasound for the real-time, non-invasive investigation of occlusion of the upper airway during events of obstructive sleep apnea/hypopnea syndrome. It is hypothesized that ultrasonic pulses applied to the neck during apneic events produce spectral and temporal features that can detect apnea occurrence. Theoretical models of ultrasound propagation and an in vitro test were conducted to test this hypothesis in both transmission and reflection modes. Complete specifications and technical details of the system design and fabrication, which is mounted on each subject’s neck, are presented, including the methodology. Nine patients (seven male and two female, mean age of 42 years, with a range of 25 to 56 years, and body mass index 37.6 ± 6.6 kg/m2) were recruited for a full night study, which included simultaneous nocturnal polysomnography for the validation of the results. Nine temporal features and four spectral features were extracted from the envelope of the received pulse waveform. These were used to compute 26 metrics to quantify the changes in the ultrasonic waveforms between normal breathing and apneic events. The statistical analysis of the collected ultrasonic data showed that at least two or more of the proposed features could detect apneic events in all subjects. The findings establish the feasibility of the proposed method as a cost-effective and non-invasive OSAHS screening tool.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Effects of charging rates on LiNi 0.6 Mn 0.2 Co 0.2 O 2 (NMC622)/graphite Li-ion cells

Enabling fast charging capability of lithium-ion battery is of great importance to widespread adoption of electric vehicles. Increasing the charging rates from state-of-the-art 2C (30 min) to 6C (10 min) requires deep understanding on the cell aging mechanism. Here, 400 mAh pouch cells are cycled at 1C, 4C and 6C charging rates with 1C discharging rate. Capacity fading, cathode structural changes, Li inventory loss, electrolyte composition changes and Li plating on graphite electrodes are thoroughly studied by various characterization techniques. The rapid capacity fading in cells at 6C charging rate is mainly due to Li inventory loss from cathode structure and metallic Li plating on graphite electrode at higher charging rate. Post-mortem analysis also revealed changes in electrolyte such as increased salt molarity and transesterification during fast charging.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

Energy Master Planning for Resilient Public Communities—Best Practices from U.S. Military Installations

Until recently, most planners at military installations addressed energy systems for new facilities on an individual facility basis without consideration of community-wide goals relevant to energy sources, renewables, storage, or future energy generation needs. Building retrofits of public buildings typically do not address energy needs beyond the minimum code requirements making it difficult, if not impossible, to achieve community-level targets on a building-by-building basis. Planning on the basis of cost and general reliability may also fail to deliver community-level resilience. For example, many building code requirements focus on hardening to specific threats, but in a multi-building community, only a few of these buildings may be mission-critical. Over the past two decades, the frequency and duration of regional power outages and water utility disruptions from weather, man-made events, and aging infrastructure have increased. Major disruptions of electric and thermal energy have degraded critical mission capabilities and caused significant economic impacts. In 2016, the U.S. Department of Defense issued guidance that each Service (Army, Navy, Air Force, Marines) complete comprehensive energy plans for the installations that consumed 75% of total building energy. Guidance was updated in 2017 to include metrics for energy resilience, and in some cases, water. This paper describes how community level quantitative and qualitative resilience analysis and metrics have been incorporated into community energy and water planning best practices for military installations in three geographically diverse locations. It is based on research performed under the International Energy Agency’s “Energy in Buildings and Communities Program Annex 73,” focusing on development of guidelines and tools that support the planning of Net Zero Energy Resilient Public Communities as well as research performed under the Department of Defense Environmental Security Technology Certification Program project EW18-D1- 5281, “Technologies Integration to Achieve Resilient, Low- Energy Military Installations.” The first case study reviews progress made on an energy and water planning study conducted at Fort Bliss, Texas. The second and third describes planning conducted at Fort Bragg, North Carolina and the Joint Region Marianas, Guam, respectively, under the updated guidance from 2017 regarding energy and water resilience. Analysis methods, key metrics, and key infrastructure and operational constraints are described, as well as technical, economic and business concepts used during the planning process.

Urban, Angela B.↗
DOE OSTI2026

SULI End of Summer Presentation

This presentation made on Power Point is a brief summary of my work enhancing the Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition (SCADA) architecture for Idaho National Lab’s Critical Infrastructure Test Range Complex (CITRC). This work was part of an on-going project to create a digital twin of CITRC that will be implemented for resiliency research. Resiliency is growing more important as extreme weather, aging infrastructure, and increasing load all exert stress on the United States power grid. This presentation highlights how I documented the existing devices and data flow on site and then updated specific device settings to better support the needs of the project. It also examines future use of this data in the digital twin data warehouse (DeepLynx), and future Artificial Intelligence and Advanced Distribution Management System applications. It will be presented to the B751 Water and Energy Systems Analysis group at INL during my last week.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Effect of CO 2 -brine-rock reactions on pore architecture and permeability in dolostone: Implications for CO 2 storage and EOR

Geologic carbon sequestration (GCS) is considered a feasible technology for storing substantive volumes of greenhouse gases in subsurface geological formations. In the reservoir, far from carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) injection wells or in post-injection scenarios, diffusion dominates over advection. This condition conjoins with spatially distributed geochemical reactions to induce heterogeneous changes in pore architecture, i.e. pore body and throat sizes or surface roughness. These changes can affect CO 2 transport properties and storage capacity. In this work, we investigated mineral dissolution and precipitation in dolomite samples saturated with a CO 2 -saturated brine at 93 °C and 34.5 MPa, aged without flow. Two rock types samples, i.e. intergranular- and vuggy-dominant, were selected to investigate changes in pore size, porosity and permeability under reactive conditions. Mineral dissolution and precipitation were characterized using scanning electron microscopy. Changes in pore size were quantified via time-domain nuclear magnetic resonance (TD-NMR) transverse relaxation time (T 2 ) and diffusion coefficient (D) distributions. We show that mineral dissolution likely occurs in highly permeable pathways. These observations are confirmed through analysis of (T 2 ) and diffusion coefficient (D) distributions. In contrast to results during CO 2 -enriched brine continuous injection, mineral precipitation was observed in micropores. The leftward shift of the T 2 peaks, corresponding to micropores, also evidenced mineral precipitation in lowpermeability zones. However, microscale alterations resulted only in a subtle increase in porosity and permeability. Results in this study shed light on effects of geochemical reactions on alteration of rock properties in diffusion-dominated regions during CO 2 storage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Spectroscopic survey of faint planetary-nebula nuclei – II. The subdwarf O central star of Fr 2-30

Fr 2-30 = PN? G126.8−15.5 is a faint emission nebula, hosting a 14th-mag central star that we identify here for the first time. Deep Hα and [O III ] images reveal a roughly elliptical nebula with dimensions of at least 22 arcmin × 14 arcmin, fading into a surrounding network of even fainter emission. Optical spectrograms of the central star show it to have a subdwarf O spectral type, with a Gaia parallax distance of 890 pc. A model-atmosphere analysis gives parameters of T eff = 60 000 K, log g = 6.0, and a low helium content of n He /n H = 0.0017. The location of the central star in the log g–T eff plane is inconsistent with a post-asymptotic-giant-branch evolutionary status. Two alternatives are that it is a helium-burning post-extreme-horizontal-branch object, or a hydrogen-burning post-red-giant-branch star. In either case, the evolutionary ages are so long that a detectable planetary nebula (PN) should not be present. We find evidence for a variable radial velocity (RV), suggesting that the star is a close binary. However, there are no photometric variations, and the spectral-energy distribution rules out a companion earlier than M2 V. The RVs of the star and surrounding nebula are discordant, and the nebula lacks typical PN morphology. We suggest that Fr 2-30 is a ‘PN mimic’ – the result of a chance encounter between the hot sdO star and an interstellar cloud. However, we note the puzzling fact that there are several nuclei of genuine PNe that are known to be in evolutionary states similar to that of the Fr 2-30 central star.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Type Ia supernovae in the star formation deserts of spiral host galaxies

ABSTRACT Using a sample of nearby spiral galaxies hosting 185 supernovae (SNe) Ia, we perform a comparative analysis of the locations and light-curve decline rates (Δm15) of normal and peculiar SNe Ia in the star formation deserts (SFDs) and beyond. To accomplish this, we present a simple visual classification approach based on the UV/H α images of the discs of host galaxies. We demonstrate that, from the perspective of the dynamical time-scale of the SFD, where the star formation is suppressed by the bar evolution, the Δm15 of SN Ia and progenitor age can be related. The SFD phenomenon gives an excellent possibility to separate a subpopulation of SN Ia progenitors with ages older than a few Gyr. We show, for the first time, that the SFDs contain mostly faster declining SNe Ia (Δm15 > 1.25). For the galaxies without SFDs, the region within the bar radius, and outer disc contain mostly slower declining SNe Ia. To better constrain the delay times of SNe Ia, we encourage new studies (e.g. integral field observations) using the SFD phenomenon on larger and more robust datasets of SNe Ia and their host galaxies.

Hakobyan, A. A. (ORCID:0000000173921765)↗
DOE OSTI2019

Transcatheter arterial infusion for pancreatic cancer: a 10-year National Cancer Center experience in 115 patients and literature review

Purpose: To evaluate the efficacy and safety of transcatheter arterial infusion (TAI) for the treatment of pancreatic cancer in patients ineligible for or refractory to systemic chemotherapy. Materials and methods: The medical records of 115 consecutive patients (mean age, 58.9 years; 71 males) with documented pancreatic cancer ineligible for or refractory to systemic chemotherapy and underwent TAI between February 2007 and January 2017 were reviewed. Results: A total of 224 TAI sessions [mean, 1.9 (range 1–8)] were performed. Technical success rate was 100%. Disease control (i.e., complete response, partial response, and stable disease) was achieved in 72 (62.6%) patients. The median progression-free survival and median overall survival were 56 days and 147 days, respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that disease control, progression-free survival, and overall survival were significantly improved in patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score of ≤ 1 compared with those in patients with an Eastern Cooperative Oncology Group score of 2 (all p < 0.001) and in patients who received > 1 sessions of TAI compared with that in patients who received only 1 session of TAI (p = 0.012, < 0.001, and = 0.002, respectively). A major complication in the form of cerebral infarction occurred in 1 (0.9%) patient 1 day after the procedure. This patient was treated with conservative therapy and recovered without permanent adverse sequelae. No other major complications were observed. Conclusions: TAI may be effective and safe for the treatment of pancreatic cancer.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Evaluation of diffusion kurtosis and diffusivity from baseline staging MRI as predictive biomarkers for response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation in locally advanced rectal cancer

Purpose: To evaluate the role of diffusion kurtosis and diffusivity as potential imaging biomarkers to predict response to neoadjuvant chemoradiation therapy (CRT) from baseline staging magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). Materials and methods: This retrospective study included 45 consecutive patients (31 male/14 female) who underwent baseline MRI with high b-value sequences (up to 1500 mm/s{sup 2}) for LARC followed by neoadjuvant chemoradiation and surgical resection. The mean age was 57.4 years (range 34.2–72.9). An abdominal radiologist using open source software manually segmented T2-weighted images. Segmentations were used to derive diffusion kurtosis and diffusivity from diffusion-weighted images as well as volumetric data. These data were analyzed with regard to tumor regression grade (TRG) using the four-tier American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) classification, TRG 0–3. Proportional odds regression was used to analyze the four-level ordinal outcome. A sensitivity analysis was performed using univariable logistic regression for binary TRG groups, TRG 0/1 (> 90% response), or TRG 2/3 (< 90% response). p < 0.05 was considered significant throughout. Results: In the univariable proportional odds regression analysis, higher diffusivity summary (D{sub sum}) values were observed to be significantly associated with higher odds of being in one or more favorable TRG group (TRG 0 or 1). In other words, on average, patients with higher D{sub sum} values were more likely to be in a more favorable TRG group. These results are mostly consistent with the sensitivity analysis, in which higher values for most D{sub sum} values [all but region of interest (ROI)-max D median (p = 0.08)] were observed to be significantly associated with higher odds of being TRG 0 or 1. Tumor volume of interest (VOI) and ROI volume, ROI kurtosis mean and median, and VOI kurtosis mean and median were not significantly associated with TRG. Conclusion: Diffusivity derived from the baseline staging MRI, but not diffusion kurtosis or volumetric data, is associated with TRG and therefore shows promise as a potential imaging biomarker to predict the response to neoadjuvant chemotherapy in LARC. Clinical relevance statement: Diffusivity shows promise as a potential imaging biomarker to predict AJCC TRG following neoadjuvant CRT, which has implications for risk stratification. Patients with TRG 0/1 have 5-year disease-free survival (DFS) of 90–98%, as opposed to those who are TRG 2/3 with 5-year DFS of 68–73%.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗
DOE OSTI2019

Effect of Natural and Accelerated Aging on the Mechanical Performance of a Composite Based on Recycled Multilayer Carton

A composite elaborated from waste material was studied for its proposed use as a wood plastic composite. Multilayer food cartons and recycled high density polyethylene were used for the elaboration of laminates, in a proportion of 55% and 45% volume fraction, respectively. The samples were subjected to an aging in an accelerated weathering (AW) chamber for 0, 500, 1000 and 2000 h with UVB radiation, temperature and humidity cycles. Samples exposed to natural weathering (NW) for 0, 1300, 2600 and 5200 h, in a warm sub-humid environment were also studied, the aim being to elucidate a correlation of the useful lifespan of the material. In both cases, after the exposure, three-point bend tests were performed to evaluate the effect on the mechanical properties. The analysis of the degradation process was carried out by infrared spectroscopy, indicating that the AW and NW samples showed deterioration of the material in different proportions. By mean of thermal analysis, it was possible to associate the degradation with the appearance and/or growth of the endothermic peaks, showing a variation in the melting temperature as the time of exposure to AW and NW increased, resulting in a change in the crystallinity percentage. The modulus of rupture (MOR) and the flexural modulus of elasticity decreased by 20% in samples subjected to AW for 2000 h; while in the samples exposed to NW, required of 5200 h to obtain a reduction of 16% in the MOR.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity Study of Multiscale and Phenomenological Elasto-Viscoplastic Grade 91 Material Models for Component-Scale Response

Many advanced nuclear reactor concepts currently being developed are targeting higher operating temperatures relative to the current fleet of light water nuclear reactors, for efficiency gains and other operational considerations. The design of high temperature structural components with reliable long-term operational performance will depend on material models that accurately capture the inelastic deformation mechanisms active in these environments. In this work, we perform a detailed parameter sensitivity analysis of two unified elasto-viscoplastic Grade 91 material models capable of capturing long term high temperature creep deformation. The first model is a phenomelogical material model from the Nuclear Engineering Material Library (NEML) developed at Argonne National Lab. The NEML model parameters and their uncertainty were fit to a range of Grade 91 experimental data using Bayesian Markov Chain Monte Carlo analysis. The second model is a LAROMance data-driven surrogate material model developed at Los Alamos National Lab. The LAROMance model is fit to a large database of responses produced by a mechanistic crystal plasticity based polycrystal model. Parameters for the LAROMance surrogate material model reflect the pedigree of the Grade 91 microstructure. Both material models have been integrated into the Grizzly code, based on the open-source MOOSE multiphysics simulation framework, to simulate both the progression of aging mechanisms and the effects of that aging on nuclear power plant structures. Grizzly is used analyze a three-dimensional Grade 91 piping system to compare the long-term inelastic response predicted by these two fundamentally different models and assess the sensitivity of the material model input parameters on this quantity of interest.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Generalizable Evaluated Approach, Applying Advanced Geospatial Statistical Methods, to Identify High Lead Exposure Locations at Census Tract Scale: Michigan Case Study

BACKGROUND: Despite great progress in reducing environmental lead (Pb) levels, many children in the United States are still being exposed. OBJECTIVE: Our aim was to develop a generalizable approach for systematically identifying, verifying, and analyzing locations with high prevalence of children’s elevated blood Pb levels (EBLLs) and to assess available Pb models/indices as surrogates, using a Michigan case study. METHODS: We obtained ~1:9 million BLL test results of children <6 years of age in Michigan from 2006–2016; we then evaluated them for data representativeness by comparing two percentage EBLL (%EBLL) rates (number of children tested with EBLL divided by both number of children tested and total population). We analyzed %EBLLs across census tracts over three time periods and between two EBLL reference values (≥5 vs. ≥10 μg/dL) to evaluate consistency. Locations with high %EBLLs were identified by a top 20 percentile method and a Getis-Ord Gi* geospatial cluster “hotspot” analysis. For the locations identified, we analyzed convergences with three available Pb exposure models/indices based on old housing and sociodemographics. RESULTS: Analyses of 2014–2016 %EBLL data identified 11 Michigan locations via cluster analysis and 80 additional locations via the top 20 percentile method and their associated census tracts. Data representativeness and consistency were supported by a 0.93 correlation coefficient between the two EBLL rates over 11 y, and a Kappa score of ~0:8 of %EBLL hotspots across the time periods (2014–2016) and reference values. Many EBLL hotspot locations converge with current Pb exposure models/indices; others diverge, suggesting additional Pb sources for targeted interventions. DISCUSSION: This analysis confirmed known Pb hotspot locations and revealed new ones at a finer geographic resolution than previously available, using advanced geospatial statistical methods and mapping/visualization. It also assessed the utility of surrogates in the absence of blood Pb data. This approach could be applied to other states to inform Pb mitigation and prevention efforts. https://doi.org/10.1289/EHP9705

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

The Value of Forecasters‐in‐the‐Loop in Real‐Time Flood Forecasting in the Age of Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) applications in hydrological forecasting are increasingly prevalent and show great potential. However, many previous studies have only evaluated performance through reanalysis or retrospective simulations compared to simplified baselines. This study provides the first assessment of ML performance against actual operational forecasting systems operated by the California Nevada River Forecast Center (CNRFC), which combines the Community Hydrologic Prediction System (CHPS) with forecasters-in-the-loop. Results demonstrate that forecasters-in-the-loop systems consistently outperform ML models in both general forecasts and flood alerting across lead times up to 96 hr, even when ML models use observed forcings, while CNRFC operational process relies on biased weather forecasts. Our analysis reveals that forecaster expertise maintains forecast reliability despite inaccurate precipitation inputs, with human-guided systems showing superior performance degradation characteristics at extended lead times. These findings highlight the irreplaceable value of human expertise in operational forecasting and caution against overstating current ML capabilities in real-world applications.

Tran, Vinh Ngoc [Univ. of Michigan, Ann Arbor, MI ↗
DOE OSTI2022

How galaxies populate halos in extreme density environments: An analysis of the halo occupation distribution in SDSS

Recent works have shown that the properties of galaxy populations in simulated dark matter halos vary with large-scale environments. These results suggest a variation in the halo occupation distribution (HOD) in extreme density environments since the dynamical and astrophysical conditions prevailing in these regions may significantly affect the formation and evolution of their halos and residing galaxies, influencing the mean number of satellite galaxies. To analyse these effects, we identify cosmic voids and future virialised structures (FVS) in the Sloan Digital Sky Server Data Release 12 (SDSS-DR12) and estimate the HOD within these super-structures using group catalogues as dark matter halo proxies. Our goal is to use observational galaxy data to characterise the HOD within cosmic voids and FVS, explore the different properties of these galaxies populations and compare them with the general results outside these super-structures. We use a publicly available observational galaxy catalogue with information on redshifts, positions, magnitudes and other astrophysical features to build a volume complete galaxy sample and identify cosmic voids and FVS. Using a publicly available galaxy group catalogue as a proxy to dark matter halos, we compute the HOD within both types of super-structures for different absolute magnitude thresholds. We also study the dependence on the results on the main void and FVS properties, density and volume. We also analysed the main characteristics of the stellar content of galaxies inside these extreme-density regions such as the mean stellar age and the galaxy light concentration index. In all cases, we compare the results with those derived from the Field sample, defined by objects outside both types of environments. Inside cosmic voids, we find a strong decrease in HOD concerning the Field results. In the most extreme cases, the mean number of satellites fall to ~ 50%. Inside FVS, the HOD shows a significant increase to the Field, with a ~ 40% excess in the mean number of satellites. These results are present for the different galaxy luminosity ranges explored. In both environments, the differences with respect to the Field increases for the extreme values of the density environments. However, we obtain no signs of variations related to intrinsic characteristics of the super-structures, indicating that the effects depend mainly on the density of the large-scale environment. In addition, we find that the cumulative distribution of the mean age of stars of the central galaxy also varies in the different regions, this suggests that the history of the formation of the dark matter halos may be different. Finally, we explore the HOD for the 25% youngest (oldest) galaxies, based on the mean age of their stars. We find that for the low-mass groups the youngest galaxies are only present inside voids and are generally central galaxies. On the other hand, for the high-mass groups the FVS environments show the same increase in the HOD concerning the Field as previously mentioned. We find that cosmic voids lack a significant fraction of galaxies with the oldest stellar population.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cancer Incidence Trends in Successive Social Generations in the US

Importance: The incidence of some cancers in the US is increasing in younger age groups, but underlying trends in cancer patterns by birth year remain unclear. Objective: To estimate cancer incidence trends in successive social generations. Design, Setting, and Participants: In this cohort study, incident invasive cancers were ascertained from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) program’s 13-registry database (November 2020 submission, accessed August 14, 2023). Invasive cancers diagnosed at ages 35 to 84 years during 1992 to 2018 within 152 strata were defined by cancer site, sex, and race and ethnicity. Exposure: Invasive cancer. Main Outcome and Measures: Stratum-specific semiparametric age-period-cohort (SAGE) models were fitted and incidence per 100 000 person-years at the reference age of 60 years was calculated for single-year birth cohorts from 1908 through 1983 (fitted cohort patterns [FCPs]). The FCPs and FCP incidence rate ratios (IRRs) were compared by site for Generation X (born between 1965 and 1980) and Baby Boomers (born between 1946 and 1964). Results: A total of 3.8 million individuals with invasive cancer (51.0% male; 8.6% Asian or Pacific Islander, 9.5% Hispanic, 10.4% non-Hispanic Black, and 71.5% non-Hispanic White) were included in the analysis. In Generation X vs Baby Boomers, FCP IRRs among women increased significantly for thyroid (2.76; 95% CI, 2.41-3.15), kidney (1.99; 95% CI, 1.70-2.32), rectal (1.84; 95% CI, 1.52-2.22), corpus uterine (1.75; 95% CI, 1.40-2.18), colon (1.56; 95% CI, 1.27-1.92), and pancreatic (1.39; 95% CI, 1.07-1.80) cancers; non-Hodgkins lymphoma (1.40; 95% CI, 1.08-1.82); and leukemia (1.27; 95% CI, 1.03-1.58). Among men, IRRs increased for thyroid (2.16; 95% CI, 1.87-2.50), kidney (2.14; 95% CI, 1.86-2.46), rectal (1.80; 95% CI, 1.52-2.12), colon (1.60; 95% CI, 1.32-1.94), and prostate (1.25; 95% CI, 1.03-1.52) cancers and leukemia (1.34; 95% CI, 1.08-1.66). Lung (IRR, 0.60; 95% CI, 0.50-0.72) and cervical (IRR, 0.71; 95% CI, 0.57-0.89) cancer incidence decreased among women, and lung (IRR, 0.51; 95% CI, 0.43-0.60), liver (IRR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.63-0.91), and gallbladder (IRR, 0.85; 95% CI, 0.72-1.00) cancer and non-Hodgkins lymphoma (IRR, 0.75; 95% CI, 0.61-0.93) incidence decreased among men. For all cancers combined, FCPs were higher in Generation X than for Baby Boomers because gaining cancers numerically overtook falling cancers in all groups except Asian or Pacific Islander men. Conclusions and Relevance: In this model-based cohort analysis of incident invasive cancer in the general population, decreases in lung and cervical cancers in Generation X may be offset by gains at other sites. Generation X may be experiencing larger per-capita increases in the incidence of leading cancers than any prior generation born in 1908 through 1964. On current trajectories, cancer incidence could remain high for decades.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗