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DOE OSTI2020

Contaminant Transport Modeling for Technology Evaluation and Long-Term Monitoring in the Tims Branch Testbed, SC - 20343

Studies conducted at U.S. DOE sites have shown the presence of heavy metals, radionuclides, and volatile organic compounds in surface water, groundwater, and soil as a result of nuclear activity in the Cold War era. Since the 1990's, innovative cleanup methods have been implemented in the Tims Branch watershed at Savannah River Site (SRS) to limit the contaminant flux to the stream that have reduced the contaminant concentrations to acceptable regulatory levels in the dissolved phase. A tin-based treatment which effectively eliminated all local anthropogenic mercury inputs to this ecosystem resulted in a known step function addition of inert tin oxide particles which now serve as a potential tracer for sedimentation and particle transport processes in the stream. The long-term effectiveness of this and other remediation techniques and the potential for remobilization of adsorbed contaminant in sediment during extreme hydrologic conditions however remains unclear. It is therefore important to understand not only the fate and transport of dissolved contaminants, but also the movement of sediment and the relevant interactions with dissolved contaminant. To narrow this knowledge gap, a study is being conducted using the Tims Branch watershed as a stream-scale ecosystem test-bed to identify the primary transport processes of major contaminants of concern (such as mercury, nickel and uranium) with an emphasis on interactions with sediment transport. This involves the development of a fully distributed hydrologic watershed model of the Tims Branch watershed to predict streamflow under extreme weather conditions, as well as the development of a comprehensive contaminant transport model that can properly account for coupled contaminant and sediment transport. Review of relevant research reports and peer-reviewed journals revealed that aside from advection-dispersion transport of dissolved contaminants, adsorption and desorption with suspended solids and bed sediment also play an important role in the transport of those contaminants of concern. To develop the fully distributed hydrologic watershed model, the MIKE SHE 2-dimensional (2D) land surface/3D groundwater model that simulates surface/subsurface hydrologic processes (such as overland flow, evapotranspiration, and infiltration) was coupled with a 1D streamflow model that accounts for stream water hydraulics (such as hydraulic structures, cross-sections, and network). To model contaminant transport, the MIKE 11 streamflow component was coupled with the MIKE 11 AD module that simulates solute transport through advection and dispersion, and MIKE ECO Lab module that accounts for both sediment transport and interactions with dissolved contaminant. At this stage, the development and optimization of the fully distributed hydrologic model has been completed, achieving satisfactory statistical results between observed and predicted discharge as indicated by a root mean square error (RMSE) of 0.039 cms and a Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency coefficient (NSE) of 0.764. The ongoing development of the contaminant transport model has also yielded realistic results from preliminary tests. Results from this study are a key to evaluating the effectiveness of tin (II)-based mercury treatment of wetlands at the SRS site, and are also relevant to evaluating the potential of using this type of novel remediation technology in other mercury-contaminated stream systems. Knowledge acquired from this research will also support interpretation of historical data on the trends of contaminant concentration distribution in Tims Branch, particularly considering the effect of extreme hydrological events on the stream flow and pollutant transport. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Novel Workflow for Coupled Simulation of Hydraulic Stimulation with Simultaneous Injection of Proppant

Enhanced Geothermal Systems (EGS) are located in impermeable host rock. Therefore, to achieve promising circulation, hydraulic stimulation is a key factor. Stimulation involves injecting a combination of fluids and proppant particles into existing fractures under high pressure. The effectiveness of stimulation depends on a variety of different factors, including the pressurization scheme and the optimal choice of carrying fluid and proppant particles to be used. For example, high-density particles can settle out of the injected slurry quickly, whereas lighter particles as well as a dense carrying fluid allow for a long transport into the reservoir. A numerical tool is therefore essential to take all these factors into account and to make robust predictions about the performance of the hydraulic stimulation. We present a novel computational application for coupled numerical simulation of hydraulic stimulation with concurrent injection of proppant in a fractured geothermal reservoir. This application is based on the open-source MOOSE framework that has been enriched with a set of equations to account for the circulation of proppant-laden slurries. It accounts for both the fluid and proppant components of the mixture, as well as particle-driven processes that include gravity settling, particle-particle interactions, and strong density and viscosity contrasts. A particular challenge is the mutual coupling with fracture mechanical processes in a propagating fracture using the FE code Defmod. Aperture and fluid pressure on one side and slurry density and viscosity changes on the other side interact and affect each other. Their basic understanding is therefore essential for the success of the stimulation. We compare our application to common numerical benchmark problems for both slurry flow and hydraulic stimulation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Bayesian Framework for Bioburden Density Estimation in Planetary Protection

To comply with the international planetary protection policy set forth by the Committee on Space Research and NASA Agency level requirements, spacecraft destined to biologically sensitive planetary bodies have to minimize terrestrial biological contamination. Analysis, testing and inspection are the standard forward verification activities that are used to demonstrate compliance with the biological contamination requirements. For testing of spacecraft surface areas, a swab or wipe sample is collected from surfaces prior to last access and subsequently processed in the lab using NASA Approved Planetary Protection Methods for Culture Based Assays. Raw data resulting from this assay is then statistically treated employing a mathematical paradigm stemming from the 1970’s Viking Lander Project to generate the bioburden density and total microbial bioburden present. This standard approach arbitrarily accounts for error and provides an upper conservative bound as it reports the maximum number of spores estimated to be present on flight hardware surfaces. A bioburden density estimate factors in the following variables: the observed bioburden count, representative volume processed, sampling efficiencies. Notably, to account for error in the approach, a 0 observed count is arbitrarily changed to a count of 1 for each hardware grouping. The data generated by spacecraft bioburden verification campaigns in the past have resulted in <80% of wipes and <90% of swabs containing a bioburden count of 0. As such, having a robust and well documented statistical approach for dealing with the probability of low incident rates is necessary to be able to estimate spacecraft bioburden. Being able to statistically describe the bioburden distribution and associated confidence level is a gamechanger for the development of bioburden allocations during mission design and will allow for tighter management of risk throughout spacecraft build. Thus, Empirical Bayes statistical approach was evaluated to estimate the microbial bioburden on spacecraft to mitigate the aforementioned mathematical concerns and provide a probabilistic bioburden distribution of the flight hardware surface. For application of this approach to performing bioburden calculations, a range of non-informative prior assumptions on hardware surfaces are explored for Bayesian analyses while informative priors using posterior distributions from prior assays are utilized for Empirical Bayes analyses. Several non-informative priors are currently under investigation to assess fitness including use of these priors to serve as a foundation to build off of NASA specification values or a basis of risk to account for unknowns during the integration and testing process. Informative priors under consideration are generated using sampled bioburden values from hardware originating within like processing environments (e.g. vendor cleaning process or similar assembly process), temporal spacecraft status events as a prediction for hardware cleanliness of future samples, and heritage system bioburden actuals to predict allocation for subsequent missions. Informative priors and probabilistic bioburden distributions are then validated using data sets from the Mars Exploration Rover, Mars Science Laboratory, and InSight missions. Using Empirical Bayes approach to generate a probabilistic bioburden distribution as demonstrated through mission use cases provides a valid approach for use in the end-to-end requirements verification process.

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Application of a Triple Bubbler Inside Molten Salt for Pyroprocessing Safeguards Purposes

The application of a triple bubbler system within molten salt environments, specifically a eutectic mixture of LiCl-KCl, is explored for nuclear safeguards purposes, focusing on nuclear material accountancy (NMA) and holdup accountancy in pyroprocessing techniques. Traditional holdup accountancy methods, which involve periodic sampling and lengthy lead times, are being supplemented by the development of actinide sensors using electrochemistry. However, these methods alone are insufficient to meet regulatory requirements set by agencies like NRC and IAEA. The triple bubbler device measures salt level, density, and surface tension simultaneously using three dip tubes of varying diameters and heights. This study investigates the accuracy and robustness of the triple bubbler in molten salt conditions at temperatures ranging from 450-550°C. The updated bubbler design, utilizing tantalum metal and larger tube geometry, demonstrated minimal plugging and maintained measurement accuracy within acceptable uncertainties: 0.611% for depth, 1.34% for density, and approximately 40% for surface tension. Results indicate that the triple bubbler system is effective for real-time, accurate measurements in pyroprocessing environments, making it a promising tool for ensuring compliance with nuclear safeguards and supporting nuclear non-proliferation efforts.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2021

Dark and Bright Excitons in Halide Perovskite Nanoplatelets

Semiconductor nanoplatelets (NPLs), with their large exciton binding energy, narrow photoluminescence (PL), and absence of dielectric screening for photons emitted normal to the NPL surface, could be expected to become the fastest luminophores amongst all colloidal nanostructures. However, super-fast emission is suppressed by a dark (optically passive) exciton ground state, substantially split from a higher-lying bright (optically active) state. Here, the exciton fine structure in 2-8 monolayer (ML) thick Cs n - 1 Pb n Br 3n + 1 NPLs is revealed by merging temperature-resolved PL spectra and time-resolved PL decay with an effective mass model taking quantum confinement and dielectric confinement anisotropy into account. This approach exposes a thickness-dependent bright-dark exciton splitting reaching 32.3 meV for the 2 ML NPLs. The model also reveals a 5-16 meV splitting of the bright exciton states with transition dipoles polarized parallel and perpendicular to the NPL surfaces, the order of which is reversed for the thinnest NPLs, as confirmed by TR-PL measurements. Accordingly, the individual bright states must be taken into account, while the dark exciton state strongly affects the optical properties of the thinnest NPLs even at room temperature. Significantly, the derived model can be generalized for any isotropically or anisotropically confined nanostructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Quantification of High-Temperature Transition Al2O3 and Their Phase Transformations

High temperature exposure of ?-Al2O3 can lead to a series of polymorphic transformations, including the formation of ?-Al2O3 and ?-Al2O3. Quantification of the microstructure in the ?/?-Al2O3 formation range represents a formidable challenge as both phases accommodate a high degree of structural disorder. In this work, we explore the use of XRD recursive stacking formalism for quantification of high temperature transition aluminas. We formulate the recursive stacking methodology for modelling of disorder in ?-Al2O3 and twinning in ?-Al2O3 and show that explicitly accounting for the disorder is necessary to reliably model the XRD patterns of high temperature transition alumina. In the second part, we use the recursive stacking approach to study phase transformation during high temperature (1050 ºC) treatment. We show that the two different intergrowth modes of ?-Al2O3 have different transformation characteristics, and that a significant portion of ?-Al2O3 is stabilized with ?-Al2O3 even after prolonged high-temperature exposures. In discussions, we outline the limitation of the current XRD approach and discuss a possible multimodal XRD and NMR approach which can improve analysis of complex transition aluminas. This work was performed in the Wiley Environmental Molecular Sciences Laboratory (EMSL), a national scientific user facility sponsored by DOEs Office of Biological and Environmental Research and located at PNNL. The work was supported by the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Basic Energy Sciences, Division of Chemical Sciences, Geosciences, and Biosciences.

Kovarik, Libor↗

DOE OSTI2023

Quasi‐dynamic breathing model of the lung incorporating viscoelasticity of the lung tissue

Abstract We advanced a novel model to calculate viscoelastic lung compliance and airflow resistance in presence of mucus, accounting for the quasi‐linear viscoelastic stress–strain response of the parenchyma (alveoli) tissue. We adapted a continuum‐based numerical modeling approach for the lung, integrating the fluid mechanics of the airflow within individual generations of the bronchi and alveoli. The model accounts for elasticity of the deformable bronchioles, resistance to airflow due to the presence of mucus within the bronchioles, and subsequent mucus flow. Simulated quasi‐dynamic inhalation and expiration cycles were used to characterize the net compliance and resistance of the lung, considering the rheology of the mucus and viscoelastic properties of the parenchyma tissue. The structure and material properties of the lung were identified to have an important contribution to the lung compliance and airflow resistance. The secondary objective of this work was to assess whether a higher frequency and smaller volume of harmonic air flow rate compared to a normal ventilator breathing cycle enhanced mucus outflow. Results predict, lower mucus viscosity and higher excitation frequency of breathing are favorable for the flow of mucus up the bronchi tree, towards the trachea.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Phylogenetic structure of specialization: A new approach that integrates partner availability and phylogenetic diversity to quantify biotic specialization in ecological networks

Abstract Biotic specialization holds information about the assembly, evolution, and stability of biological communities. Partner availabilities can play an important role in enabling species interactions, where uneven partner availabilities can bias estimates of biotic specialization when using phylogenetic diversity indices. It is therefore important to account for partner availability when characterizing biotic specialization using phylogenies. We developed an index, phylogenetic structure of specialization (PSS), that avoids bias from uneven partner availabilities by uncoupling the null models for interaction frequency and phylogenetic distance. We incorporate the deviation between observed and random interaction frequencies as weights into the calculation of partner phylogenetic α‐diversity. To calculate the PSS index, we then compare observed partner phylogenetic α‐diversity to a null distribution generated by randomizing phylogenetic distances among the same number of partners. PSS quantifies the phylogenetic structure (i.e., clustered, overdispersed, or random) of the partners of a focal species. We show with simulations that the PSS index is not correlated with network properties, which allows comparisons across multiple systems. We also implemented PSS on empirical networks of host–parasite, avian seed‐dispersal, lichenized fungi–cyanobacteria, and hummingbird pollination interactions. Across these systems, a large proportion of taxa interact with phylogenetically random partners according to PSS, sometimes to a larger extent than detected with an existing method that does not account for partner availability. We also found that many taxa interact with phylogenetically clustered partners, while taxa with overdispersed partners were rare. We argue that species with phylogenetically overdispersed partners have often been misinterpreted as generalists when they should be considered specialists. Our results highlight the important role of randomness in shaping interaction networks, even in highly intimate symbioses, and provide a much‐needed quantitative framework to assess the role that evolutionary history and symbiotic specialization play in shaping patterns of biodiversity. PSS is available as an R package at https://github.com/cjpardodelahoz/pss .

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Predicting responses to climate change using a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance model

Abstract Predicting the effects of warming temperatures on the abundance and distribution of organisms under future climate scenarios often requires extrapolating species–environment correlations to climatic conditions not currently experienced by a species, which can result in unrealistic predictions. For poikilotherms, incorporating species' thermal physiology to inform extrapolations under novel thermal conditions can result in more realistic predictions. Furthermore, models that incorporate species and spatial dependencies may improve predictions by capturing correlations present in ecological data that are not accounted for by predictor variables. Here, we present a joint species, spatially dependent physiologically guided abundance (jsPGA) model for predicting multispecies responses to climate warming. The jsPGA model uses a basis function approach to capture both species and spatial dependencies. We apply the jsPGA model to predict the response of eight fish species to projected climate warming in thousands of lakes in Minnesota, USA. By the end of the century, the cold‐adapted species was predicted to have high probabilities of extirpation across its current range—with 10% of lakes currently inhabited by this species having an extirpation probability >0.90. The remaining species had varying levels of predicted changes in abundance, reflecting differences in their thermal physiology. Though the model did not identify many strong species dependencies, the variation in estimated spatial dependence across species suggested that accounting for both dependencies was important for predicting the abundance of these fishes. The jsPGA model provides a new tool for predicting changes in the abundance, distribution, and extirpation probability of poikilotherms under novel thermal conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Elastic functional changepoint detection of climate impacts from localized sources

Detecting changepoints in functional data has become an important problem as interest in monitoring of climate phenomenon has increased, where the data is functional in nature. Here, the observed data often contains both amplitude (y-axis) and phase (x-axis) variability. If not accounted for properly, true changepoints may be undetected, and the estimated underlying mean change functions will be incorrect. In this article, an elastic functional changepoint method is developed which properly accounts for these types of variability. The method can detect amplitude and phase changepoints which current methods in the literature do not, as they focus solely on the amplitude changepoint. This method can easily be implemented using the functions directly or can be computed via functional principal component analysis to ease the computational burden. We apply the method and its nonelastic competitors to both simulated data and observed data to show its efficiency in handling data with phase variation with both amplitude and phase changepoints. We use the method to evaluate potential changes in stratospheric temperature due to the eruption of Mt. Pinatubo in the Philippines in June 1991. Using an epidemic changepoint model, we find evidence of a increase in stratospheric temperature during a period that contains the immediate aftermath of Mt. Pinatubo, with most detected changepoints occurring in the tropics as expected.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Relating the depth of the water table to the depth of weathering

Weathering of bedrock creates and occludes permeability, affecting subsurface water flow. Often, weathering intensifies above the water table. On the other hand, weathering can also commence below the water table. To explore relationships between weathering and the water table, a simplified weathering model for an eroding hillslope was formulated that takes into account both saturated and unsaturated subsurface water flow (but does not fully account for changes in dissolved gas chemistry). The phreatic line was calculated using solutions to mathematical treatments for both zones. In the model, the infiltration rate at the hill surface sets both the original and the eventual steady-state position of the water table with respect to the weathering reaction front. Depending upon parameters, the weathering front can locate either above or below the water table at steady state. Erosion also affects the water table position by changing porosity and permeability even when other hydrological conditions (e.g. hydraulic conductivity of parent material, infiltration rate at the surface) do not change. The total porosity in a hill (water storage capacity) was found to increase with infiltration rate (all else held constant). Furthermore, this effect was diminished by increasing the erosion rate. We also show examples of how the infiltration rate affects the position of the water table and how infiltration rate affects weathering advance.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainty quantification of bank vegetation impacts on the flood flow field in the American River, California, using large‐eddy simulations

Bank vegetation plays a key role in both hydrodynamics and morphodynamics of natural rivers; however, these effects are often unaccounted for in the computational flow dynamics of natural waterways. Recent studies using the large‐eddy simulation (LES), however, have attempted to gain insights into the impacts of bank vegetation on the mean flow field of the natural rivers using a vegetation model, which applies a sink term to the momentum equations of motion. This approach accounts for the effects of the vegetation and provides a practical approach to account for the complex patches of bank vegetation in large‐scale rivers. To implement the vegetation model, a drag coefficient reflecting the overall resistance of vegetal structures to the flow is needed, but due to the lack of calibrated data and range of size, density and type of vegetation, this parameter can be a significant source of uncertainty in the model results. Here, in this study, we use uncertainty quantification (UQ) to investigate the hydrodynamics and bed shear results when a bank vegetation is incorporated in an LES model. To this end, we used the polynomial chaos expansion and Monte Carlo sampling techniques to determine the uncertainties associated with the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and from uncertainties in the bed roughness and inflow discharge. The UQ analysis provided spatially varying confidence levels for the spanwise and vertical distribution of velocity magnitude and for the bed shear stress distributions. In addition, Sobol indices were computed to indicate the relative influence that each parameter had on the overall uncertainty. In general, it was found that uncertainty in flow discharge was the dominant source of uncertainty; however, the drag coefficient in the vegetation model and the bed roughness parameter also made significant contribution to the uncertainty near the banks and bed, respectively.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Probability of Containment Effectiveness at a GCS Sites using integrated assessment modeling approach with Bayesian decision Networks

Improved scientific and engineering understanding of the behavior of geologic CO2 storage together with established regulatory framework and incentive structures raise the prospects for accelerated, large-scale deployment of this greenhouse gas emissions reduction approach. Incentive structures call for the establishment of appropriate verification and accounting approaches to support claims of the integrity of a geologic storage complex and to justify taking credit for long-term storage. In this study, we present a framework for assessing the probability of containment effectiveness over the lifetime of a geologic carbon storage site (e.g., after 70 years of injection and post-injection site performance) using forward stochastic model realizations based on site characterization data and using a monitoring-informed Bayesian network based on hypothetical detectability from surface seismic surveys over the site injection and post-injection phases. The National Risk Assessment Partnership’s open-source Integrated Assessment Model (NRAP-Open-IAM) was utilized to develop an ensemble of 10,000 a priori stochastic forecasts of CO2 containment. Those simulations were used to train the Bayesian network model to estimate the prior probabilities of the CO2 leakage mass into overlying, monitorable aquifers considering the uncertainties in the reservoir properties, permeability of potentially leaky wells and the overlying aquifers. The conditional probabilities in the Bayesian network were either learned from the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations or derived from the predefined detection thresholds for the monitoring method. Observations obtained from monitoring, over time during the site operation phases were then used to generate updated posterior probabilities of containment (and any loss from containment) in the Bayesian network by propagating the prior probabilities through the conditional probabilities. We demonstrate how to construct and use the Bayesian network for verifying the long-term storage complex effectiveness informed by monitoring based on the NRAP-Open-IAM simulations previously developed for the FutureGen 2.0 site. This approach may have relevance for stake holders to demonstrate secure geologic storage, provide a defensible, probabilistic approach to claim credit for geologic storage, and to estimate the likelihood that any fraction of the claimed credit may need to be refunded to the creditor based on available monitoring information.

Bayesian network, Risk assessment, Monitoring, car↗

DOE OSTI2020

A New Estimator to Correct for Bias from Tag Rate Expansion on Natural-Origin Fish Attributes in Mixed-Stock Analysis Using Parentage-Based Tagging

Abstract In fisheries where hatchery- and natural-origin conspecifics occur as mixed stocks, it is often important to estimate both the natural-origin proportion of the mixture and the composition of attributes within the natural-origin portion (e.g., genetic stock, sex, and age-class). These estimates are facilitated by parentage-based tagging, which allows large numbers of hatchery fish to be efficiently tagged and later identified. When tag rates are less than 100%, the untagged fish in the mixture include both untagged hatchery fish and natural-origin fish. Unbiased estimation of the abundance and attribute composition of the natural-origin portion requires an estimator that accounts for tag rates. Two estimators are described: one “accounting-style” estimator similar to previously described approaches and one maximum likelihood method. These estimators were evaluated and compared using simulations mimicking estimation of the composition of fish migrating past a dam. The two estimators performed similarly at reducing bias when tag rates were high, but the maximum likelihood method had smaller mean square error when tag rates were low. We provide an R package to allow usage of this estimator in a wide variety of fisheries applications.

Delomas, Thomas A. (ORCID:000000015154759X)↗

DOE OSTI2022

Improving Abundance Estimates of Spring–Summer Snake River Chinook Salmon for Fisheries Management

Abstract The Columbia River basin is home to a run of spring–summer Chinook Salmon Oncorhynchus tshawytscha that returns to the Snake River drainage of Idaho, Oregon, and Washington in the Pacific Northwest. Historically, the run was one of the more productive throughout the Columbia River basin. However, Snake River spring–summer Chinook Salmon have experienced declines in abundance due to overfishing, habitat degradation, and dams. Several stocks are listed as threatened under the U.S. Endangered Species Act and are supported by mitigation hatcheries funded by Idaho Power Company, the Lower Snake River Compensation Plan, and the Bonneville Power Administration. To maximize tribal and state harvest of returning hatchery adults, minimize impacts on wild fish, and ensure that enough hatchery fish return to meet broodstock needs, careful fisheries management is required. Since 2008, managers have used hatchery adults, PIT-tagged as juveniles and detected at Lower Granite Dam, to generate adult abundance estimates. In season, these estimates inform state and tribal harvest shares and ensure that broodstock needs are met. Postseason, they provide smolt-to-adult survival and return rates. Since 2012, parentage-based tagging (PBT) has provided an alternative method to estimate stock- and age-specific returns at Lower Granite Dam, since returning hatchery adults sampled at Lower Granite Dam can be assigned to their parents. We compared stock-specific abundance estimates between PIT- and PBT-derived methodologies for return years 2016–2019. Across all years, PIT tag estimates accounted for 65% of the PBT-based estimates at Lower Granite Dam across all age-groups and release sites combined. This underrepresentation across all groups equated to 49,833 fish that were not accounted for in PIT tag abundance estimates. It is clear that PBT-based estimates should aide in-season harvest management and postseason run reconstruction to avoid the known bias of estimates from PIT tags, especially during years of low returns when increased accuracy is critical.

Coykendall, D. Katharine (ORCID:0000000211482397)↗

DOE OSTI2023

A phase-field model for hydraulic fracture nucleation and propagation in porous media

Many geo-engineering applications, for example, enhanced geothermal systems, rely on hydraulic fracturing to enhance the permeability of natural formations and allow for sufficient fluid circulation. Over the past few decades, the phase-field method has grown in popularity as a valid approach to modeling hydraulic fracturing because of the ease of handling complex fracture propagation geometries. However, existing phase-field methods cannot appropriately capture nucleation of hydraulic fractures because their formulations are solely energy-based and do not explicitly take into account the strength of the material. Thus, in this work, we propose a novel phase-field formulation for hydraulic fracturing with the main goal of modeling fracture nucleation in porous media, for example, rocks. Built on the variational formulation of previous phase-field methods, the proposed model incorporates the material strength envelope for hydraulic fracture nucleation through two important steps: (i) an external driving force term, included in the damage evolution equation, that accounts for the material strength; (ii) a properly designed damage function that defines the fluid pressure contribution on the crack driving force. In conclusion, the comparison of numerical results for two-dimensional test cases with existing analytical solutions demonstrates that the proposed phase-field model can accurately model both nucleation and propagation of hydraulic fractures. Additionally, we present the simulation of hydraulic fracturing in a three-dimensional domain with various stress conditions to demonstrate the applicability of the method to realistic scenarios.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Shortest path network interdiction with asymmetric uncertainty

Abstract This paper considers an extension of the shortest path network interdiction problem that incorporates robustness to account for parameter uncertainty. The shortest path interdiction problem is a game of two players with conflicting agendas and capabilities: an evader, who traverses the arcs of a network from a source node to a sink node using a path of shortest length, and an interdictor, who maximizes the length of the evader's shortest path by interdicting arcs on the network. It is usually assumed that the parameters defining the network are known exactly by both players. We consider the situation where the evader assumes the nominal parameter values while the interdictor uses robust optimization techniques to account for parameter uncertainty or sensor degradation. We formulate this problem as a nonlinear mixed‐integer semi‐infinite bilevel program and show that it can be converted into a mixed‐integer linear program with a second order cone constraint. We use random geometric networks and transportation networks to perform computational studies and demonstrate the unique decision strategies that our variant produces. Solving the shortest path interdiction problem with asymmetric uncertainty protects the interdictor from investing in a strategy that hinges on key interdictions performing as promised. It also provides an alternate strategy that mitigates the risk of these worst‐case possibilities.

Punla‐Green, She'ifa Z.↗

DOE OSTI2024

A multiscale anisotropic polymer network model coupled with phase field fracture

The study of polymers has continued to gain substantial attention due to their expanding range of applications, spanning essential engineering fields to emerging domains like stretchable electronics, soft robotics, and implantable sensors. These materials exhibit remarkable properties, primarily stemming from their intricate polymer chain network, which, in turn, increases the complexity of precisely modeling their behavior. Especially for modeling elastomers and their fracture behavior, accurately accounting for the deformations of the polymer chains is vital for predicting the rupture in highly stretched chains. Despite the importance, many robust multiscale continuum frameworks for modeling elastomer fracture tend to simplify network deformations by assuming uniform behavior among chains in all directions. Recognizing this limitation, our study proposes a multiscale fracture model that accounts for the anisotropic nature of elastomer network responses. At the microscale, damage in the chains is assumed to be driven by both the chain's entropy and the internal energy due to molecular bond distortions. In order to bridge the stretching in the chains to the macroscale deformation, we employ the maximal advance path constraint network model, inherently accommodating anisotropic network responses. As a result, chains oriented differently can be predicted to exhibit varying stretch and, consequently, different damage levels. To drive macroscale fracture based on damages in these chains, we utilize the micromorphic regularization theory, which involves the introduction of dual local-global damage variables at the macroscale. The macroscale local damage variable is obtained through the homogenization of the chain damage values, resulting in the prediction of an isotropic material response. The macroscale global damage variable is subjected to nonlocal effects and boundary conditions in a thermodynamically consistent phase field continuum formulation. Moreover, the total dissipation in the system is considered to be mainly due to the breaking of the molecular bonds at the microscale. To validate our model, we employ the double-edge notched tensile test as a benchmark, comparing simulation predictions with existing experimental data. Additionally, to enhance our understanding of the fracturing process, we conduct uniaxial tensile experiments on a square film made up of polydimethylsiloxane (PDMS) rubber embedded with a hole and notches and then compare our simulation predictions with the experimental observations. Furthermore, we visualize the evolution of stretch and damage values in chains oriented along different directions to assess the predictive capacity of the model. In conclusion, the results are also compared with another existing model to evaluate the utility of our model in accurately simulating the fracture behavior of rubber-like materials.

42 ENGINEERING↗