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NASA NTRS2023

The Statistical Emulators of GGCMI Phase 2: Responses of Year-to-Year Variation of Crop Yield to CO 2 , Temperature, Water and Nitrogen Perturbations

Understanding the impact of climate change on year-to-year variation of crop yield is critical to global food stability and security. While crop model emulators are believed to be lightweight tools to replace the models, few emulators have been developed to capture such interannual variation of crop yield in response to climate variability. In this study, we developed a statistical emulator with a machine learning algorithm to reproduce the response of year-to-year variation of four crop yields to CO 2 (C), temperature (T), water (W), and nitrogen (N) perturbations defined in the Global Gridded Crop Model Intercomparison Project (GGCMI) phase 2. The emulators were able to explain more than 52 % of the variance of simulated yield and performed well in capturing the year-to-year variation of global average and gridded crop yield over current croplands in the baseline. With the changes in CO 2 –temperature–water–nitrogen (CTWN) perturbations, the emulators could reproduce the year-to-year variation of crop yield well over most current cropland. The variation of R and the mean absolute error was small under the single CTWN perturbations and dual-factor perturbations. These emulators thus provide statistical response surfaces of yield, including both its mean and interannual variability, to climate factors. They could facilitate spatiotemporal downscaling of crop model simulation, projecting the changes in crop yield variability in the future and serving as a lightweight tool for multi-model ensemble simulation. The emulators enhanced the flexibility of crop yield estimates and expanded the application of large-ensemble simulations of crop yield under climate change.

Climate change↗

NASA NTRS1980

Preliminary evaluation of spectral, normal and meteorological crop stage estimation approaches

Several of the projects in the AgRISTARS program require crop phenology information, including classification, acreage and yield estimation, and detection of episodal events. This study evaluates several crop calendar estimation techniques for their potential use in the program. The techniques, although generic in approach, were developed and tested on spring wheat data collected in 1978. There are three basic approaches to crop stage estimation: historical averages for an area (normal crop calendars), agrometeorological modeling of known crop-weather relationships agrometeorological (agromet) crop calendars, and interpretation of spectral signatures (spectral crop calendars). In all, 10 combinations of planting and biostage estimation models were evaluated. Dates of stage occurrence are estimated with biases between -4 and +4 days while root mean square errors range from 10 to 15 days. Results are inconclusive as to the superiority of any of the models and further evaluation of the models with the 1979 data set is recommended.

Cate, R. B.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Orbit determination accuracies using satellite-to-satellite tracking

The results are reported of the ATS-6/GEOS-3 and the ATS-6 Nimbus-6 satellite-to-satellite orbit determination experiments. NASA intends to use the tracking data relay satellite system for operational orbit determination of NASA satellites. Hence, in the near future, satellite-to-satellite tracking data will be routinely processed to obtain orbits. The satellite-to-satellite tracking system used in the ATS-6/Nimbus-6 and ATS-6/GEOS-3 experiments performed with a resolution of 1 to 2 m in range and less than 1 mm/s in range rate for a 10-s averaging. A Bayesian least squares estimation technique utilizing independent ranging to the synchronous relay satellite was determined to be the most effective procedure for estimating orbits from satellite-to-satellite tracking data. The use of this technique yields estimates of user satellite orbits which are comparable in accuracy to what is usually obtained from ground based systems.

Vonbun, F. O.↗

NASA NTRS2002

Evaluation of Improvements to the TRMM Microwave Rain Algorithm

Improvements made to the Version 5 TRMM passive microwave rain retrieval algorithm (2A-12) are evaluated using independent data. Surface rain rate estimates from the Version 5 TRMM TMI (2A-12), PR (2A-25) and TMI/PR Combined (2B-31) algorithms and ground-based radar estimates for selected coincident subset datasets in 1998 over Melbourne and Kwajalein show varying degrees of agreement. The surface rain rates are then classified into convective and stratiform rain types over ocean, land, and coastal areas for more detailed comparisons to the ground radar measurements. These comparisons lead to a better understanding of the relative performances of the current TRMM rain algorithms. For example, at Melbourne more than 80% of the radar-derived rainfall is classified as convective rain. Convective rain from the TRMM rain algorithms is less than that from ground radar measurements, while TRMM stratiform rain is much greater. Rain area coverage from 2A-12 is also in reasonable agreement with ground radar measurements, with about 25% more over ocean and 25% less over land and coastal areas. Retrieved rain rates from the improved (Version 6) 2A-12 algorithm will be compared to 2A-25, 2B-31, and ground-based radar measurements to evaluate the impact of improvements to 2A-12 in Version 6. An important improvement to the Version 6 2A-12 algorithm is the retrieval of Q1/Q2 (latent heating/drying) profiles in addition to the surface rain rate and hydrometeor profiles. In order to ascertain the credibility of the new products, retrieved Q1/Q2 profiles are compared to independent ground-based estimates. Analyses of dual-Doppler radar data in conjunction with coincident rawinsonde data yield estimates of the vertical distributions of diabatic heating/drying at high horizontal resolution for selected cases over the Kwajalein and LBA field sites. The estimated vertical heating/drying structures appear to be reasonable. Comparisons of Q1/Q2 profiles from Version 6 2A-12 and the ground-based estimates are in progress. Retrieved Q1/Q2 structures will also be compared to MM5 hurricane simulations for selected cases. The results of these intercomparisons will be presented at the conference.

Yang, Song↗

NASA NTRS2015

Light-Curve Modelling Constraints on the Obliquities and Aspect Angles of the Young Fermi Pulsars

In more than four years of observation the Large Area Telescope on board the Fermi satellite has identified pulsed gamma-ray emission from more than 80 young or middle-aged pulsars, in most cases providing light curves with high statistics. Fitting the observed profiles with geometrical models can provide estimates of the magnetic obliquity alpha and of the line of sight angle zeta, yielding estimates of the radiation beaming factor and radiated luminosity. Using different gamma-ray emission geometries (Polar Cap, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, One Pole Caustic) and core plus cone geometries for the radio emission, we fit gamma-ray light curves for 76 young or middle-aged pulsars and we jointly fit their gamma-ray plus radio light curves when possible. We find that a joint radio plus gamma-ray fit strategy is important to obtain (alpha, zeta) estimates that can explain simultaneously detectable radio and gamma-ray emission: when the radio emission is available, the inclusion of the radio light curve in the fit leads to important changes in the (alpha, gamma) solutions. The most pronounced changes are observed for Outer Gap and One Pole Caustic models for which the gamma-ray only fit leads to underestimated alpha or zeta when the solution is found to the left or to the right of the main alpha-zeta plane diagonal respectively. The intermediate-to-high altitude magnetosphere models, Slot Gap, Outer Gap, and One pole Caustic, are favored in explaining the observations. We find no apparent evolution of α on a time scale of 106 years. For all emission geometries our derived gamma-ray beaming factors are generally less than one and do not significantly evolve with the spin-down power. A more pronounced beaming factor vs. spin-down power correlation is observed for Slot Gap model and radio-quiet pulsars and for the Outer Gap model and radio-loud pulsars. The beaming factor distributions exhibit a large dispersion that is less pronounced for the Slot Gap case and that decreases from radio-quiet to radio-loud solutions. For all models, the correlation between gamma-ray luminosity and spin-down power is consistent with a square root dependence. The gamma-ray luminosities obtained by using the beaming factors estimated in the framework of each model do not exceed the spin-down power. This suggests that assuming a beaming factor of one for all objects, as done in other studies, likely overestimates the real values. The data show a relation between the pulsar spectral characteristics and the width of the accelerator gap. The relation obtained in the case of the Slot Gap model is consistent with the theoretical prediction.

neutron aEuro" pulsars:↗

NASA NTRS1980

LACIE - An application of meteorology for United States and foreign wheat assessment

This paper describes the overall Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment technical approach utilizing the global weather-reporting network and the Landsat satellite to make a quasi-operational application of existing research results, and the accomplishments of this cooperative experiment in utilizing the weather information. Global weather data were utilized in preparing timely yield estimates for selected areas of the U.S. Great Plains, the U.S.S.R. and Canada. Additionally, wheat yield models were developed and pilot tested for Brazil, Australia, India and Argentina. The results of the work show that heading dates for wheat in North America can be predicted with an average absolute error of about 5 days for winter wheat and 4 days for spring wheat. Independent tests of wheat yield models over a 10-year period for the U.S. Great Plains produced a root-mean-square error of 1.12 quintals per hectare (q/ha) while similar tests in the U.S.S.R. produced an error of 1.31 q/ha. Research designed to improve the initial capability is described as is the rationale for further evolution of a capability to monitor global climate and assess its impact on world food supplies.

Hill, J. D.↗

NASA NTRS2021

Mapping Yearly Fine Resolution Global Surface Ozone through the Bayesian Maximum Entropy Data Fusion of Observations and Model Output for 1990–2017

Estimates of ground-level ozone concentrations are necessary to determine the human health burden of ozone. To support the Global Burden of Disease Study, we produce yearly fine resolution global surface ozone estimates from 1990 to 2017 through a data fusion of observations and models. As ozone observations are sparse in many populated regions, we use a novel combination of the M3Fusion and Bayesian Maximum Entropy (BME) methods. With M3Fusion, we create a multi-model composite by bias-correcting and weighting nine global atmospheric chemistry models based on their ability to predict observations (8,834 sites globally)in each region and year. BME is then used to integrate observations, such that estimates match observations at each monitoring site with the observational influence decreasing smoothly across space and time until the output matches the multi-model composite. After estimating at 0.5° resolution using BME, we add fine spatial detail from an additional model, yielding estimates at 0.1° resolution. Observed ozone is predicted more accurately (R2=0.81 at test point, 0.63 at 0.1°,0.62 at 0.5°) than the multi-model mean (R2=0.28 at 0.5°). Global ozone exposure is estimated to be increasing, driven by highly populated regions of Asia and Africa, despite decreases in the United States and Russia.

environmental modeling↗

NASA NTRS1982

On composites with periodic structure

The overall moduli of a composite with an isotropic elastic matrix containing periodically distributed (anisotropic) inclusions or voids, can be expressed in terms of several infinite series which only depend on the geometry of the inclusions or voids, and hence can be computed once and for all for given geometries. For solids with periodic structures these infinite series play exactly the same role as does Eshelby's tensor for a single inclusion or void in an unbounded elastic medium. For spherical and circular-cylindrical geometries, the required infinite series are calculated and the results are tabulated. These are then used to estimate the overall elastic moduli when either the overall strains or the overall stresses are prescribed, obtaining the same results. These results are compared with other estimates and with experimental data. It is found that the model of composites with periodic structure yields estimates in excellent agreement with the experimental observations.

Nemat-Nasser, S.↗

NASA NTRS1983

Field measurements, simulation modeling and development of analysis for moisture stressed corn and soybeans, 1982 studies

The experimental design, data acquisition and analysis procedures for agronomic and reflectance data acquired over corn and soybeans at the Sandhills Agricultural Laboratory of the University of Nebraska are described. The following conclusions were reached: (1) predictive leaf area estimation models can be defined which appear valid over a wide range of soils; (2) relative grain yield estimates over moisture stressed corn were improved by combining reflectance and thermal data; (3) corn phenology estimates using the model of Badhwar and Henderson (1981) exhibited systematic bias but were reasonably accurate; (4) canopy reflectance can be modelled to within approximately 10% of measured values; and (5) soybean pubescence significantly affects canopy reflectance, energy balance and water use relationships.

Blad, B. L.↗

NASA NTRS2002

A Method to Retrieve Rainfall Rate over Land from TRMM Observations

Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) Precipitation Radar (PR) observations over mesoscale convective systems (MCSs) reveal that there are localized maxima in the rain rate with a scale of about 10 to 20 km that represent thunderstorms (Cbs). Some of these Cbs are developing or intense, while others are decaying or weak. These Cbs constitute only about 20 % of the rain area of a given MCS. Outside of Cbs, the average rain rate is much weaker than that within Cbs. From an analysis of the PR data, we find that the spatial distribution of rain and its character, convective or stratiform, is highly inhomogeneous. This complex nature of rain exists on a scale comparable to that of a Cb. The 85 GHz brightness temperature, T85, observations of the TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) radiometer taken over an MCS reflect closely the PR rain rate pattern over land. Local maxima in rain rate shown by PR are observed as local minima in T85. Where there are no minima in T85, PR observations indicate there is light rain. However, the TMI brightness temperature measurements (Tbs) have poor ability to discriminate convective rain from stratiform rain. For this reason, a TMI rain retrieval procedure that depends primarily on the magnitude of Tbs performs poorly. In order to retrieve rain rate from TMI data on land one has to include the spatial distribution information deduced from the T85 data in the retrieval method. Then, quantitative estimation of rain rate can be accomplished. A TMI rain retrieval method developed along these lines can yield estimates of rain rate and its frequency distribution which agree closely with that given by PR. We find the current TRMM project TMI (Version 5) rain retrieval algorithm on land could be improved with the retrieval scheme developed here. To support the conceptual frame work of the rain retrieval method developed here, a theoretical analysis of the TMI brightness temperatures in convective and stratiform regions is presented.

Prabhakara, C.↗

NASA NTRS1977

Pattern recognition of Landsat data based upon temporal trend analysis

The Delta Classifier defined as an agricultural crop classification scheme employing a temporal trend procedure is applied to more than 100 different Landsat data sets collected during the 1974-1975 growing season throughout the major wheat-producing regions of the United States. The classification approach stresses examination of temporal trends of the Landsat mean vectors of crops in the absence of corresponding ground truth information. It is shown that the resulting classifications compare favorably to ground truth estimates for wheat proportion in those cases where ground truth is available, and that the temporal trend procedure yields estimates of the wheat proportion that are comparable to the best results from maximum likelihood classification with photointerpreter-defined training fields.

Engvall, J. L.↗

NASA NTRS1979

Polar motion results from GEOS 3 laser ranging

The observability of polar motion from laser range data has been investigated, and the contributions from the dynamical and kinematical effects have been evaluated. Using 2-day arcs with GEOS 3 laser data, simultaneous solutions for pole position components and orbit elements have been obtained for a 2-week interval spanning August 27 to September 10, 1975, using three NASA Goddard Space Flight Center stations located at Washington, D.C., Bermuda, and Grand Turk. The results for the y-component of pole position from this limited data set differenced with the BIH linearly interpolated values yield a mean of 39 cm and a standard deviation of 1.07 m. Consideration of the variance associated with each estimate yields a mean of 20 cm and a standard deviation of 81 cm. The results for the x-component of pole position indicate that the mean value is in fair agreement with the BIH; however, the x-coordinate determination is weaker than the y-coordinate determination due to the distribution of laser sites (all three are between 77 deg W and 65 deg W) which results in greater sensitivity to the data distribution. In addition, the sensitivity of these results to various model parameters is discussed.

Schutz, B. E.↗

NASA NTRS1981

The energetics of molecular clouds. III - The S235 molecular cloud

The molecular cloud associated with the S235 H II region has been studied by means of molecular lines and near-infrared observations. The cloud consists of two components, one of which partly surrounds the S235 H II region. The other component contains a dense, hot region of active star formation, marked by self-reversed CO profiles, compact H II regions, masers, and infrared sources. From the molecular line data, the size and mass of the two components are estimated to be 6-8 pc and 3000-4000 solar masses. More detailed studies near the region of active star formation yield estimates of density (approximately 200,000-500,000/cu cm) and the abundances of H2CO, HCO(+), HCN, and (C-13)O. Analysis of the energetics suggests that the cloud is heated by the exciting star of S235 and by the exciting stars of the compact H II regions. Assuming that the gas is heated by collisions with warm dust grains, the far-infrared luminosity has been predicted. The observations of far-infrared emission are in reasonable agreement with predictions.

Evans, N. J., II↗

NASA NTRS1985

Spectral estimation of green leaf area index of oats

Green leaf area index (LAI) is a measure of vegetative growth and development and is frequently used as an input parameter in yield estimation and evapotranspiration models. Extensive destructive sampling is usually required to achieve accurate estimates of green LAI in natural situations. In this investigation, a statistical modeling approach was used to predict the green LAI of oats from bidirectional reflectance data collected with multiband radiometers. Stepwise multiple regression models based on two sets of spectral reflectance factors accounted for 73 percent and 65 percent of the variance in green LAI of oats. Exponential models of spectral data transformations of greenness, normalized difference, and near-infrared/red ratio accounted for more of the variance in green LAI than the multiple regression models.

Best, R. G.↗

NASA NTRS1986

Spring Small Grains Area Estimation

SSG3 automatically estimates acreage of spring small grains from Landsat data. Report describes development and testing of a computerized technique for using Landsat multispectral scanner (MSS) data to estimate acreage of spring small grains (wheat, barley, and oats). Application of technique to analysis of four years of data from United States and Canada yielded estimates of accuracy comparable to those obtained through procedures that rely on trained analysis.

Palmer, W. F.↗

NASA NTRS2014

New Approach to Monitor Transboundary Particulate Pollution over Northeast Asia

A new approach to more accurately monitor and evaluate transboundary particulate matter (PM) pollution is introduced based on aerosol optical products from Korea's Geostationary Ocean Color Imager (GOCI). The area studied is Northeast Asia (including eastern parts of China, the Korean peninsula and Japan), where GOCI has been monitoring since June 2010. The hourly multi-spectral aerosol optical data that were retrieved from GOCI sensor onboard geostationary satellite COMS (Communication, Ocean, and Meteorology Satellite) through the Yonsei aerosol retrieval algorithm were first presented and used in this study. The GOCI-retrieved aerosol optical data are integrated with estimated aerosol distributions from US EPA Models-3/CMAQ (Community Multi-scale Air Quality) v4.5.1 model simulations via data assimilation technique, thereby making the aerosol data spatially continuous and available even for cloud contamination cells. The assimilated aerosol optical data are utilized to provide quantitative estimates of transboundary PM pollution from China to the Korean peninsula and Japan. For the period of 1 April to 31 May, 2011 this analysis yields estimates that AOD as a proxy for PM2.5 or PM10 during long-range transport events increased by 117-265% compared to background average AOD (aerosol optical depth) at the four AERONET sites in Korea, and average AOD increases of 121% were found when averaged over the entire Korean peninsula. This paper demonstrates that the use of multi-spectral AOD retrievals from geostationary satellites can improve estimates of transboundary PM pollution. Such data will become more widely available later this decade when new sensors such as the GEMS (Geostationary Environment Monitoring Spectrometer) and GOCI-2 are scheduled to be launched.

Data Assimilation↗

NASA NTRS1988

Hydrologic models for land-atmosphere retrospective studies of the use of LANDSAT and AVHRR data

The use of a Geographic Information System (GIS) and LANDSAT analysis in conjunction with the Simulator for Water Resources on a Rural Basin (SWRRB) hydrologic model to examine the water balance on the Little Washita River basin is discussed. LANDSAT analysis was used to divide the basin into eight non-contiguous land covers or subareas: rangeland, grazed range, winter wheat, alfalfa/pasture, bare soil, water, woodland, and impervious land (roads, quarry). The use of a geographic information system allowed for the calculation of SWRRB model parameters in each subarea. Four data sets were constructed in order to compare SWRRB estimates of hydrologic processes using two methods of maximum LAI and two methods of watershed subdivision. Maximum LAI was determined from a continental scale map, which provided a value of 4.5 for the entire basin, and from its association with the type of land-cover (eight values). The two methods of watershed subdivision were determined according to drainage subbasin (four) and the eight land-covers. These data sets were used with the SWRRB model to obtain daily hydrologic estimates for 1985. The results of the one year analysis lead to the conclusion that the greater homogeneity of a land-cover subdivision provides better water yield estimates than those based on a drainage properties subdivision.

Duchon, Claude E.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Thermal shock in a circumferentially cracked hollow cylinder with cladding

An theoretical analysis is presented which demonstrates the effect of cladding on the thermal resistance of a circumferentially cracked hollow cylinder. The cladding is assumed to be bonded to the inner wall of the hollow cylinder. The axisymmetric circumferential crack may be either embedded in the cylinder wall or may be an edge crack which passes through the clad and opens into the inner wall of the hollow cylinder. The problem is formulated mathematically and a solution is found which is in the form of a single integral equation. The integral equation is solved numerically and yields estimates of transient temperature distributions, thermal stresses in the uncracked cylinder, and stress intensity factors as a function of time for various cladding thickness to cylinder wall thickness ratios. It is shown that yielding of the clad under certain conditions can result in a reduction in the magnitude of the stress intensity factor for the crack tip in the elastic base material.

Nied, H. F.↗