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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Expert perspectives on the wind plant of the future

Abstract Wind power technology has changed rapidly in recent years. Technology innovation, evolving power markets, and competing land and ocean uses continue to influence the design and operation of wind turbines and plants. Anticipating these trends and their impact on future facilities can inform commercial strategies and research priorities. Drawing from a recent survey of 140 of the world's foremost wind experts, we identify expectations of future wind plant design in 2035, both for onshore and offshore wind. Experts anticipate continued growth in turbine size, to 5.5 (onshore) and 17 MW (offshore), with plants located in increasingly less favorable wind and siting regimes. They expect plant sizes of 1,100 MW for fixed‐bottom and 600 MW for floating offshore wind. Experts forecast enhanced grid‐system value from wind through significant to widespread use of larger rotors, hybrid projects with batteries and hydrogen production, and more. To explain experts' perspectives on future plant design and operation, we identify five mechanisms: economies of unit, plant, and resource scale; grid‐system value economies; and production efficiencies. We characterize learning effects as a moderating influence on the strength of these mechanisms. In combination, experts predict that these design choices support levelized cost of energy reductions of 27% (onshore) and 17%–35% (floating and fixed‐bottom offshore) by 2035 compared to today, while enhancing wind energy's grid service offerings. Our findings provide a much‐needed benchmark for representing future wind technologies in power sector models and address a critical research gap by explaining the economics behind wind energy design choices.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

High-Resolution Wind Resource Data Set of the Greater Puerto Rico Region

In February 2022, the U.S. Department of Energy and six national laboratories launched the Puerto Rico Grid Resilience and Transitions to 100% Renewable Energy Study (PR100). PR100 aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of possible pathways for Puerto Rico's energy future, with a goal of 100% renewable energy by 2050. As a part of the renewable energy potential assessment in this project, we developed 20 years (2001-2020) of data using a numerical weather prediction (NWP) model for onshore and offshore wind resource assessment for the Puerto Rico. The research steps in developing the long-term wind resource data sets based on the NWP model were: 1. Model wind resource based on the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. 2. Develop WRF model configurations for Puerto Rico. 3. Test WRF with 11 different physics parameterizations for planetary boundary layer (PBL). 4. Assess WRF output from the different PBL schemes against observations. 5. Select a final model configuration which can produce the modeled wind speed with sufficient accuracy. 6. Produce 20 years wind resource data sets for Puerto Rico region. In the first stage of our framework for developing wind resource data, we developed a WRF model configuration using two nested domains (9 km and 3 km) to cover Puerto Rico and U.S. Virgin Islands and downscale the ERA5 reanalysis data (0.25 degrees x 0.25 degrees; hourly interval) to a 3-km domain. For the second stage, we implemented one-year simulations focused on using 11 different PBL physics parameterizations to find a combination of WRF physics parameterizations that could provide accurately modeled wind speed for Puerto Rico. We also analyzed the sensitivity of the modeled wind speed to PBL schemes for onshore and offshore locations. The WRF output resulting from the 11 WRF experiments using different PBL parameterizations were evaluated against observations obtained from the National Data Buoy Center (NDBC) as well as at hub height for a location for which measurements were available. A final model setup selected through the validation with observational data was used to produce 20 years of data with 3-km spatial and 5-minute temporal resolution. The WRF model output was post-processed to include wind profiles and basic atmospheric variables in a format that can be easily used for downstream modeling. The 20 years of wind resource data will be made available through NREL and support the estimation of wind energy development costs for the PR100 study.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Climate Change Mitigation Potential of Wind Energy

Global wind resources greatly exceed current electricity demand and the levelized cost of energy from wind turbines has shown precipitous declines. Accordingly, the installed capacity of wind turbines grew at an annualized rate of about 14% during the last two decades and wind turbines now provide ~6–7% of the global electricity supply. This renewable electricity generation source is thus already playing a role in reducing greenhouse gas emissions from the energy sector. Here we document trends within the industry, examine projections of future installed capacity increases and compute the associated climate change mitigation potential at the global and regional levels. Key countries (the USA, UK and China) and regions (e.g., EU27) have developed ambitious plans to expand wind energy penetration as core aspects of their net-zero emissions strategies. The projected climate change mitigation from wind energy by 2100 ranges from 0.3–0.8 °C depending on the precise socio-economic pathway and wind energy expansion scenario followed. The rapid expansion of annual increments to wind energy installed capacity by approximately two times current rates can greatly delay the passing of the 2 °C warming threshold relative to pre-industrial levels. To achieve the required expansion of this cost-effective, low-carbon energy source, there is a need for electrification of the energy system and for expansion of manufacturing and installation capacity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

ARCUS Vertical-Axis Wind Turbine (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

While land-based wind energy has become economically competitive with traditional energy generation sources in the U.S., offshore wind is not. For floating offshore wind this difference is even more substantial where the levelized cost of energy (LCOE) is projected to be around 3-5 times more expensive than land-based wind. The turbine capital costs represent around 50% of the LCOE for land-based wind sites, but the increased system costs for floating offshore wind reduce this to 20%. The platform and mooring costs are the single largest contributor to the LCOE for floating offshore wind where their mass must counteract the overturning moment caused by the turbine’s thrust force. Despite the high costs of the platform and relatively low cost of the turbine, current offshore wind turbines are designed essentially the same as for land-based sites. Reducing the LCOE is the greatest challenge to realize the benefits of sustained development of floating offshore wind in the U.S. Reducing the complicated system costs of floating offshore wind will enable the industry to continue to grow and outpace current projections if reduced cost curves can be reached. The ideal wind energy system would remove all mass and cost that is not directly capturing energy from the wind. For floating offshore wind energy systems, this objective is even more significant as increased mass above the water level must be supported by larger and more expensive floating platforms. For this reason, vertical-axis wind turbines (VAWTs) are ideal for floating offshore sites and have several advantages over horizontal-axis wind turbines (HAWTs) at this scale. Large VAWTs offer opportunities for improved energy capture over HAWTs as single units and with reduced wind plant aerodynamic losses through enhanced wake recovery. Additionally, the platform-level placement of the VAWT drivetrain greatly reduces the demands placed on the floating platform and its mass and cost. The ARCUS vertical-axis wind turbine concept (U.S. 11,421,650 B2) is an iteration beyond traditional Darrieus-type VAWTs that replaces the rigid tower with blades that are bent into shape and held in place with tensioned center supports, like a bow. The ARCUS design has been shown to further decrease the VAWT rotor mass properties, with a 50% reduction over traditional Darrieus VAWTs quantified in the ATLANTIS program. The ARCUS VAWT’s efficient use of material for the rotor and turbine support structures combined with its lowered center of gravity enables a tension-leg platform (TLP) with simplified installation procedures. TLPs have been an emerging platform architecture in the Oil and Gas industry and demonstrated to have the lowest hull mass requirements while maintaining stability with minimal roll and pitch deflections in operation. A 22 MW ARCUS turbine has been designed with a three-column TLP that enables quayside integration of the turbine while maintaining system stability during tow-out and installation and having optimal mass and cost properties. A comprehensive analysis shows the optimal ARCUS TLP system design minimizes LCOE through efficient material usage and increased energy capture to yield a competitive LCOE estimate of $\$$55/MWh. A comparison with a reference HAWT, having the same swept area, quantifies the advantages that helped to produce this improved LCOE for the ARCUS concept: (1) 30% reduction in total turbine mass, (2) 70% reduction in turbine center of gravity, and (3) 45% increase in energy production over what is optimal for a HAWT. Intellectual property has been generated through the ATLANTIS program providing opportunities to further reduce the LCOE and improve the performance of the ARCUS turbine and TLP system, expanding the list of innovations to support commercial development of the ARCUS concept.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accomplishments and Mid-Year Performance Report: Wind Energy Program Fiscal Year 2020

Through transformative science and innovation, the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) Flatirons Campus helps lead the way to a sustainable energy future that powers America with significant levels of reliable, low-cost, and accessible wind energy. Since 1976, NREL has provided an ideal environment for the research and development (R&D) of advanced energy technologies through: Wind energy resource assessments, World-class research facilities, High-performance computing and modeling, Data and technology analysis, Manufacturing breakthroughs, Environmental analysis and wildlife conservation efforts, Education and training programs for a future workforce. These activities enable the innovations needed to advance U.S. wind systems, address market and deployment barriers, and drive down the cost of wind energy with more efficient, more reliable, and more predictable wind energy systems. This report provides an overview of the achievements NREL delivered on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during the first and second quarters of Fiscal Year (FY) 2020.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Techno-economic analysis of offshore wind PEM water electrolysis for H 2 production

A model for producing hydrogen via offshore wind electrolysis was developed and the levelized costs of both energy and hydrogen were calculated. Here, this model calculated the cost of hydrogen produced by offshore wind and showed that the levelized cost of energy for hydrogen production and transportation to shore could be lower than for electricity transmission from offshore wind farms, using real wind data from a particular location. Therefore, direct coupling of the electrolysis system with offshore wind turbine is more advantageous than transmitting electricity to shore and then producing hydrogen via traditional electrolysis; the cost of hydrogen from offshore wind electrolysis is estimated to be $\$2.09$/kg, vs $\$3.86$/kg from traditional electrolysis using wind power.

08 HYDROGEN↗
DOE OSTI2021

Wind power costs driven by innovation and experience with further reductions on the horizon

The costs of wind power have declined to levels on par with or below those of conventional sources in many parts of the world. Wind power has become one of the fastest-growing sources of new electricity generation. We take stock of wind power cost evolution over the past 20 years, review methodologies commonly used for cost assessment, discuss the potential for continued cost reduction, and identify anticipated cost and value drivers. Our scope includes both onshore and offshore wind technologies. We draw from a vast body of literature on these topics to highlight key trends, approaches, and limitations. Furthermore, we discuss strategies for wind power assets to enhance their marginal economic value to the broader power system and consumers. We identify a myriad of factors that are expected to influence the future cost and value of wind power, including siting, project scale, turbine size, operational synergies, commodity prices, advancements in turbine technologies, enhanced management of the wind resource, and novel control technologies that provide value for the electricity grid. Because the common methods for forecasting future costs each have their own strengths and weaknesses, we find the best insights are elicited from a combination of methods. Overall, researchers and analysts anticipate further sizable cost reductions for onshore and offshore wind. Midrange forecasts for levelized cost of energy in 2050 are generally between $20 and $30/MWh for onshore wind and $40 and $60/MWh for offshore wind, a reduction to approximately half of today's levels. Optimistic forecasts anticipate these levels as early as 2030.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

WRF Modelling of Deep Convection and Hail for Wind Power Applications

Deep convection and the related occurrence of hail, intense precipitation and wind gusts represent a hazard to a range of energy infrastructure including wind turbine blades. Wind turbine blade leading edge erosion (LEE) is caused by the impact of falling hydrometeors onto rotating wind turbine blades. It is a major source of wind turbine maintenance costs and energy losses from wind farms. In the United States Southern Great Plains (SGP), where there is widespread wind energy development, deep convection and hail events are common, increasing the potential for precipitation-driven LEE. A 25-day Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model simulation conducted at convection-permitting resolution and using a detailed microphysics scheme is carried out for the SGP to evaluate the effectiveness in modelling the wind and precipitation conditions relevant to LEE potential. WRF output for these properties is evaluated using radar observations of precipitation (including hail) and reflectivity, in situ wind speed measurements and wind power generation. This research demonstrates some skill for the primary drivers of LEE. Wind speeds, rainfall rates and precipitation totals show good agreement with observations. Here, the occurrence of precipitation during power producing wind speeds is also shown to exhibit fidelity. Hail events frequently occur during periods when wind turbines are rotating and are especially important to LEE in the SGP. The presence of hail is modelled with a mean proportion correct of 0.77 and an odds ratio 4.55. Further research is needed to demonstrate sufficient model performance to be actionable for the wind energy industry and there is evidence for positive model bias in cloud reflectivity.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Energy 101 - Wind [Slides]

The Energy 101: Wind presentation, developed for the Energy Technology Innovation Partnership Project (ETIPP), provides an overview of wind energy. It covers fundamental concepts, technologies, considerations, case studies, and additional resources.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Objective and algorithm considerations when optimizing the number and placement of turbines in a wind power plant

Abstract. Optimizing turbine layout is a challenging problem that has been extensively researched in the literature. However, optimizing the number of turbines within a given boundary has not been studied as extensively and is a difficult problem because it introduces discrete design variables and a discontinuous design space. An essential step in performing wind power plant layout optimization is to define the objective function, or value, that is used to express what is valuable to a wind power plant developer, such as annual energy production, cost of energy, or profit. In this paper, we demonstrate the importance of selecting the appropriate objective function when optimizing a wind power plant in a land-constrained site. We optimized several different wind power plants with different wind resources and boundary sizes. Results show that the optimal number of turbines varies drastically depending on the objective function. For a simple, one-dimensional, land-based scenario, we found that a wind power plant optimized for minimal cost of energy produced just 72 % of the profit compared to the wind power plant optimized for maximum profit, which corresponded to a loss of about USD 2 million each year. This paper also compares the performance of several different optimization algorithms, including a novel repeated-sweep algorithm that we developed. We found that the performance of each algorithm depended on the number of design variables in the problem as well as the objective function.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2020

Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Wind Energy Program, Fiscal Year 2020

Offering broad-based technical expertise and world-class capabilities and facilities, NREL leverages these assets to provide the wind industry with a better understanding of fundamental physics, high-performance computing-enabled simulation tools, and the physical validation necessary to significantly lower the cost of wind energy. This report provides an overview of the many achievements NREL delivered on behalf of DOE's Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) and other partners during Fiscal Year (FY) 2020.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
NASA NTRS1982

Economics of wind energy for utilities

Utility acceptance of this technology will be contingent upon the establishment of both its technical and economic feasibility. This paper presents preliminary results from a study currently underway to establish the economic value of central station wind energy to certain utility systems. The results for the various utilities are compared specifically in terms of three parameters which have a major influence on the economic value: (1) wind resource, (2) mix of conventional generation sources, and (3) specific utility financial parameters including projected fuel costs. The wind energy is derived from modeling either MOD-2 or MOD-0A wind turbines in wind resources determined by a year of data obtained from the DOE supported meteorological towers with a two-minute sampling frequency. In this paper, preliminary results for six of the utilities studied are presented and compared.

Mccabe, T. F.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Constrained power reference control for wind turbines

The cost of wind energy can be reduced by controlling the power reference of a turbine to increase energy capture, while maintaining load and generator speed constraints. We apply standard torque and pitch controllers to the direct inputs of the turbine and use their set points to change the power output and reduce generator speed and blade load transients. A power reference controller increases the power output when conditions are safe and decreases it when problematic transient events are expected. Transient generator speeds and blade loads are estimated using a gust measure derived from a wind speed estimate. A hybrid controller decreases the power rating from a maximum allowable power. Compared to a baseline controller, with a constant power reference, the proposed controller results in generator speeds and blade loads that do not exceed the original limits, increases tower fore-aft damage equivalent loads by 1%, and increases the annual energy production by 5%.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Coupling turbulent flow with blade aeroelastics and control modules in large-eddy simulation of utility-scale wind turbines

We present a large-eddy simulation framework capable of control co-design of large wind turbines, coupling the turbulent flow environment with blade aeroelastics and turbine controllers. The geometry and aerodynamics of the rotor blades and the turbine nacelle are parameterized using an actuator surface model. The baseline collective pitch control and individual pitch control (IPC) algorithms, consisting of a single-input, single-output proportional–integral controller and two integral controllers, respectively, are incorporated into the simulation framework. Furthermore, a second-order model based on the Euler–Bernoulli beam theory is implemented to describe the blade deformation. Simulations are carried out to investigate the impact of collective and individual pitch control strategies on the deflection of turbine blades. Our results show that the IPC reduces the blade tip deflection fluctuations in the out-of-plane direction, while the fluctuations of the blade tip deflection along the in-plane direction are barely affected by the IPC. Furthermore, the blade out-of-plane deformation fluctuation is underestimated by the one-way coupling approach compared to the two-way coupling approach. Furthermore, the findings of this study reveal the importance of advanced control systems in reducing the dynamic loads on wind turbine blades and underscore the potential of control co-design to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2020

Report of the Condition of a General Electric Transportation Systems Gearbox

Wind power plant operations and maintenance (O&M) costs remain an appreciable contributor to the overall cost of wind energy. Premature of wind turbine gearboxes failures are often a result of abrasive wear, micropitting, scuffing, white-etch cracks, and macropitting issues. Micropitting is a fatigue phenomenon that occurs in Hertzian contacts in both gears and rolling-element bearings that operate in mixed or micro elastohydrodynamic lubrication regimes. Micropitting is influenced by and manifests itself in many different ways depending on operating conditions such as load, speed and operating temperature, and on factors such as gear geometry and accuracy, tooth flank roughness, percentage of tooth sliding, and lubricant composition. Despite much research by many investigators, micropitting remains complex, unpredictable, and difficult to control and remains a problem in wind turbine gearboxes. The purpose of this report is to document and describe the micropitting damage observed in a wind turbine gearbox, thereby facilitating further analysis and examination in future reports.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Estimation of the Ambient Wind Field From Wind Turbine Measurements Using Gaussian Process Regression

In the search for a lower levelized cost of wind energy, one approach is to increase the accuracy of wind turbine measurements such as wind speed and wind direction. The sensors available on wind turbines are susceptible to local turbulence and measurement bias, which can result in suboptimal turbine performance. As an alternative, recent research has considered using the sensor measurements in a coordinated manner. With such a cooperative approach, the local wind conditions can be estimated more accurately and reliably without the need for additional measurement equipment. In this paper, a novel wind field estimation approach is presented that estimates the local wind conditions based on turbine measurements using Gaussian processes. We show that the estimation framework is able to improve the accuracy of the wind direction estimate both in an offline and online manner, as well as identify possible biases in the sensors and reduce unnecessary wind turbine yaw activity.

49 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Wind (EE-4W↗
DOE OSTI2022

Design-Space Exploration for Inverse-Design of Wind Turbine Blades Using Data-Driven Methods

The state-of-the-practice aerodynamic design methods for wind turbine blades is typically based on Blade-Element Momentum (BEM) theory using a pre-designed frozen family of airfoils. The airfoils are themselves typically designed using panel methods. The design of the next-generation of large flexible rotors will need to capture the non-linear aerodynamics and three-dimensional flow to reduce the levelized cost of wind energy. Data-driven methods for aerodynamic design using data generated by computational fluid dynamics offer an attractive alternative to BEM-based methods that captures the non-linear aerodynamics of the component airfoils as well as the root and tip sections. In this work, we develop and demonstrate a framework to "smartly" explore the relevant design space in combination with an appropriate automated CFD pipeline to evaluate the aerodynamics of each design. The design-space exploration framework uses appropriate perturbations to the airfoil shape and induction profile from a baseline shape in combination with the inverse-design using BEM. The resulting designs are evaluated using an automated CFD pipeline using the in-house CFD solver framework "Mercury". We perform verification and validation to establish the capability of the Mercury framework to predict the aerodynamic performance of wind turbines. The CFD simulation of the perturbed blade shapes are optimized to restart from the converged baseline simulation to reduce the computational time. Finally, we demonstrate the design-space exploration technique for the design of the outboard section and the full rotor using perturbations to the shape and operating conditions of the NREL 5-MW turbine.

aerodynamic design methods↗