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Wind Energy Accomplishments and Year-End Performance Report: Fiscal Year 2023

As the United States' largest source of renewable energy, wind is already playing a vital role in the nation's shift to electricity generated from sustainable resources. Scientists, engineers, and analysts at the U.S. Department of Energy's (DOE's) National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) are propelling our country closer to this clean energy future with new efficient, reliable, and cost-competitive wind technologies and deployment strategies. In Fiscal Year 2023 (FY 2023), NREL received national acclaim for recent wind technology breakthroughs, applauded sustained decades of progress in wind energy research, and heralded new initiatives to support the next generation of wind development. This report and NREL's achievements of the last year set the stage for innovative research to come. Two NREL software innovations used to assess wind technology options were recognized with R&D 100 Awards. The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model helps planners, developers, and researchers calculate wind energy capacity, generation, and cost for specific facilities, fleets and scenarios. NREL's Simulation and Emulation for Advanced Systems validates transmission and distribution solutions to minimize implementation risks. Both of these tools can be applied to a range of renewable solutions to cut costs and improve the reliability of systems in even the most remote locations. The laboratory commemorated landmark anniversaries for wind energy research facilities and programs managed by NREL. The National Wind Technology Center (NWTC) celebrated 30 years as a world-class hub for renewable energy research. An important component of the NWTC on NREL's Flatirons Campus, the one-of-a-kind 7-megawatt (MW) Controllable Grid Interface wind energy research apparatus, turned 10 this year. The Collegiate Wind Competition completed its tenth annual competition in May 2023. Six years after the grand challenges in wind energy science were first compiled, NREL brought together more than 100 wind energy experts from 15 countries to revisit the field's most pressing research needs. Other key new research initiatives examined ways to simultaneously address the needs for skilled wind energy workers and equitable job opportunities. NREL released the first national-level report evaluating offshore wind industry workforce gaps and ways to build a large, diverse pool of job candidates. The lab also co-hosted the International Partnering Forum's Offshore Wind Workforce Summit as part of its ongoing efforts to address the special challenges of that industry sector. NREL research and development (R&D) for the DOE Wind Energy Technologies Office (WETO) continues to build momentum in its efforts to combat climate change, create clean energy jobs, and promote energy justice. This report provides more detail on these top achievements and other accomplishments made by NREL and its partners during FY 2023 (between Oct. 1, 2022, and Sept. 30, 2023).

accomplishments↗

Challenges and Possible Solutions in Aeroelastic Modeling for the Distributed Wind Industry

Aeroelastic modeling (AM) is the primary methodology for structural and performance assessment of any wind turbine; it provides an understanding of the impact of design parameters on turbine loading and power response before witnessing it in the field. Despite these advantages, the use of AM in the distributed wind technology (DWT) sector is limited. This article represents a short summary of an in-depth assessment by the authors of the status of AM and its role within the distributed wind technology design standards. The research gathered input and feedback from a large number of U.S. and international stakeholders, reviewed technical strengths and weaknesses of the current edition of the design standards, analyzed the minutes from recent industry workshops and meetings, collected publicly available AM templates, and provided an evaluation of the existing AM codes. Several goals were achieved including providing strategies for the load assessment categorization of turbines based on rotor swept area and archetype, and guidance for AM verification and validation. Recommendations within this study will advance the value and the ease-of-use of AM, thereby allowing the industry to better capitalize this underutilized tool, resulting in a more efficient design process, an easier path to certification, and overall better and more reliable distributed wind technology products.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

LA-8 Computational Analysis and Validation Studies Using FlightStream

With the emerging market of Urban Air Mobility and the associated unique new flight vehicles with the capability of vertical takeoff and landing, design tools need to be calibrated to assist in the development of these new flight vehicle concepts. Distributed electric propulsion (DEP) covers these vehicles with high-energy flow from the array of motors, which leads to extensive propulsion/airframe interaction effects. With limited experimental data of vehicles using DEP and vehicle operation across a large range of angles of attack, including post-stall conditions, there is a lack of validated design tools to advance new vehicle concepts that have blown wings and operate in multiple flight modes. Although some CFD tools can handle the integration of multiple propulsors and unique geometries, the computational time with a full vehicle is extraordinary. FlightStream, a surface vorticity flow solver that can run in a fraction of the time of other CFD methods, has been evaluated using the Langley Aerodrome No. 8 (LA-8) vehicle as a test case. The LA-8 vehicle is a DEP tandem tilt-wing research vehicle that was designed, built, and tested at NASA Langley Research Center. The LA-8 design features both high-performance and high-technical risks aspects. The vehicle has gone through extensive design of experiments wind tunnel testing in the NASA Langley 12-Foot Low-Speed Wind Tunnel in order to capture all modes of operation. In addition, the LA-8 vehicle has undergone wind tunnel testing with and without propellers, which contributes to the validation of FlightStream for aerodynamic performance in blown and unblown wing cases. This study shows that FlightStream can produce trends and magnitudes of the lift and drag coefficients similar to the data collected from the wind tunnel testing of LA-8. The test cases were both blown and unblown wing cases and with and without high lift control surface deflections.

Steven Curtis Geuther↗

2022 Summer Resource Adequacy in the ERCOT Region

This report is a 2022 update to the National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL) report that examined the potential system performance of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system during the summer of 2021. Anticipated summer reserve margins in ERCOT have risen year-over-year from the 15.7 percent reported in ERCOT’s Final Seasonal Assessment of Resource Adequacy (SARA) for Summer 2021 to 22.8 percent in the Final SARA for Summer 2022, driven mostly by increases in wind and solar generation. Using data from ERCOT’s 2022 Summer SARA, Capacity, Demand and Reserves (CDR) reports, and historical performance data obtained from ERCOT and Hitachi Energy Velocity Suite, six economic dispatch scenarios using PROMOD were developed to assess the risk to ERCOT of a load shedding event for Summer 2022. The results suggests that ERCOT may be facing a very tight resource adequacy situation, with the potential for a serious shortfall during the summer peak, usually the end of July through mid-August, if demand and generator outage rates significantly exceed peak levels. Under these conditions, ERCOT will need to call on its operating tools, including Energy Emergency Alerts (EEA) and calls to conserve electricity, to maintain reliability and continue serving load. Those measures alone may not be sufficient to avert a shedding of load.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Demonstration of Grid Services Using Mixed Grid-Forming and Grid-Following Technologies at the Wheatridge Renewable Energy Facility (Final Technical Report)

This Final Technical Report summarizes the analytical, modeling, and engineering work performed to evaluate grid-forming (GFM) inverter capabilities within a large hybrid renewable energy facility. The project focused on assessing the ability of advanced inverter-based resources to provide essential reliability services through coordinated operation of grid-forming (GFM) and grid-following (GFL) technologies. During Budget Period 1, the project developed a comprehensive framework of GFM performance metrics, including angle support, voltage regulation, frequency response, damping behavior, and current-limiting performance. Extensive electromagnetic transient (EMT) studies and hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) testing were conducted to validate GFM behavior under a range of operating conditions, including weak-grid scenarios, voltage disturbances, and multi-resource interactions. The project also established validated modeling approaches, plant-level control integration strategies, commissioning frameworks, and high-speed measurement infrastructure to support future field demonstration. Although the project concluded prior to field demonstration, the results provide a utility-scale foundation for evaluating, modeling, and deploying grid-forming technologies. The methodologies and tools developed contribute to industry understanding of inverter-based resource behavior and support future power system reliability under increasing renewable penetration.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Filament Wound Composite Analysis Using the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT) and Finite Element Analysis

Fiber reinforced composite materials, owing to their tailorable thermomechanical and functional properties, allow one to produce a structure that is stronger, stiffer, and lighter than its metal counterpart while performing the same function, yielding a more efficient structure. This not only allows for the improvement of current technologies like aircraft structures, but also enables new technologies like gaseous hydrogen storage for mobility applications, which are otherwise impractical when manufactured using traditional metals due to weight and space restrictions or material embrittlement. However, the use of composites imposes greater design and manufacturing challenges on an engineer, since they are heterogenous, having a distinct structure across multiple length scale, behave generally anisotropically at the structural level and require complex manufacturing and processing methods. Capturing this complex behavior requires detailed numerical simulations, including the modeling of microstructural features like undulations, voids, and fiber alignment. In this paper, multiple repeating unit cells (RUCs), representing filament wound composites, are developed (via a script provided in the Appendix) and analyzed. The refinement of these RUCs is varied, and the analyses are performed using both the Abaqus finite element software and the NASA Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). A study is undertaken to compare the predicted effective elastic properties of the wound RUC to a laminate representation of the wound RUC, which neglects the undulations. Additionally, two different sets of periodic boundary conditions (PBCs) have been examined. One approximates the real boundary conditions using a standard approach and the other represents the PBCs exactly through the use of an offset. Lastly, a comparison of the local elastic stress fields is made among the models and approaches. Since wound structures are often approximated as laminated structures, it is important to understand the degree to which this assumption is valid, namely by first comparing the elastic constants and local elastic fields. This will provide, on the one hand, information concerning the bulk mechanical behavior and, on the other hand, insights concerning local load distributions and likely damage initiation sites.

Composites↗

Design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability

Wind farm control strategies are being developed to mitigate wake losses in wind farms, increasing energy production. Wake steering is a type of wind farm control in which a wind turbine's yaw position is misaligned from the wind direction, causing its wake to deflect away from downstream turbines. Current modeling tools used to optimize and estimate energy gains from wake steering are designed to represent wakes for fixed wind directions. However, wake steering controllers must operate in dynamic wind conditions and a turbine's yaw position cannot perfectly track changing wind directions. Research has been conducted on robust wake steering control optimized for variable wind directions. In this paper, the design and analysis of a wake steering controller with wind direction variability is presented for a two-turbine array using the FLOw Redirection and Induction in Steady State (FLORIS) control-oriented wake model. First, the authors propose a method for modeling the turbulent and low-frequency components of the wind direction, where the slowly varying wind direction serves as the relevant input to the wake model. Next, we explain a procedure for finding optimal yaw offsets for dynamic wind conditions considering both wind direction and yaw position uncertainty. We then performed simulations with the optimal yaw offsets applied using a realistic yaw offset controller in conjunction with a baseline yaw controller, showing good agreement with the predicted energy gain using the probabilistic model. Using the Gaussian wake model in FLORIS as an example, we compared the performance of yaw offset controllers optimized for static and dynamic wind conditions for different turbine spacings and turbulence intensity values, assuming uniformly distributed wind directions. For a spacing of five rotor diameters and a turbulence intensity of 10 %, robust yaw offsets optimized for variable wind directions yielded an energy gain equivalent to 3.24 % of wake losses recovered, compared to 1.42 % of wake losses recovered with yaw offsets optimized for static wind directions. In general, accounting for wind direction variability in the yaw offset optimization process was found to improve energy production more as the separation distance increased, whereas the relative improvement remained roughly the same for the range of turbulence intensity values considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Energization and transport of ions of ionospheric origin in the terrestrial magnetosphere

The work of this grant has been predominantly focused on ion outflows from two data sets: Prognoz 7 and Dynamics Explorer. The Prognoz analysis studied ion densities, temperatures, and flow velocities in the magnetotail. The work performed under this contract consisted of developing a program to load the raw data, computing the background subtraction of a strong sun pulse, and using the net count to calculate the low order moments of the distribution function. The study confirms the results of ISEE with regard to the supply of plasma from the cusp as a major source of plasmasheet plasma and goes beyond this to discuss the use of ion velocities as a way to examine the motions of the magnetotail. The abstract of the work to be reported is included as an appendix. The work on the DE/Retarding Ion Mass Spectrometer is separated into two categories: (1) classification of low-energy ion flows from high-latitudes, and (2) studies of the polar wind. Major publications resulting from this work are also included as an appendix to this report. The polar wind is in a category by itself as a result of the thermal escape of hydrogen and helium because of ambipolar diffusion through the heavier, oxygen-dominated topside ionosphere. The analysis of the polar wind reports the flux variability as a function of season, magnetic activity, etc. Much effort has been expended under this grant to complete a follow on study of the thermal structure of the polar wind. Extensive display tools and analysis software have been developed and used in an attempt to carry out this thermal analysis. The present work uses a constrained fit scheme that combines the ion densities and flow velocities derived from Chandler et al. and a spacecraft potential derived from an empirical relation to the total ion density to determine the remaining fit parameter, the ion temperature, via a least squares fit to the RIMS data.

Waite, J. Hunter JR.↗

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) Sensor Suite

The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite seeks to address the aerodynamic, aerothermodynamic, and thermal protection system (TPS) performance issues during atmospheric entry, descent, and landing of the Mars 2020 mission. Based on the highly successful instrumentation suite that flew on Mars Science Laboratory (MEDLI), the new sensor suite expands on the types of measurements and also seeks to answer questions not fully addressed by the previous mission. Sensor Package: MEDLI2 consists of 7 pressure transducers, 17 thermal plugs, 2 heat flux sensors, and one radiometer. The sensors are distributed across both the heatshield and backshell, unlike MEDLI (the first sensor suite), which was located solely on the heat-shield. The sensors will measure supersonic pressure on the forebody, a pressure measurement on the aftbody, near-surface and in-depth temperatures in the heatshield and backshell TPS materials, direct total heat flux on the aftbody, and direct radiative heating on the aftbody. Instrument Development: The supersonic pressure transducers, the direct heat flux sensors, and the radiometer all were tested during the development phase. The status of these sensors, including the piezo-resistive pressure sensors, will be presented. The current plans for qualification and calibration for all of the sensors will also be discussed. Post-Flight Data Analysis: Similar to MEDLI, the estimated flight trajectory will be reconstructed from the data. The aerodynamic parameters that will be reconstructed will be the axial force coefficient, freestream Mach number, base pressure, atmospheric density, and winds. The aerothermal quantities that will be determined are the heatshield and backshell aero-heating, turbulence transition across the heatshield, and TPS in-depth performance of PICA. By directly measuring the radiative and total heat fluxes on the back-shell, the convective portion of the heat flux will be estimated. The status of the current tools to perform the post-flight data analysis will be presented, along with plans for model improvements.

Hwang, Helen H.↗

Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) Sensor Suite

The Mars 2020 Entry, Descent, and Landing Instrumentation 2 (MEDLI2) sensor suite seeks to address the aerodynamic, aerothermodynamic, and thermal protection system (TPS) performance issues during atmospheric entry, descent, and landing of the Mars 2020 mission. Based on the highly successful instrumentation suite that flew on Mars Science Laboratory (MEDLI), the new sensor suite expands on the types of measurements and also seeks to answer questions not fully addressed by the previous mission. Sensor Package: MEDLI2 consists of 7 pressure transducers, 17 thermal plugs, 2 heat flux sensors, and one radiometer. The sensors are distributed across both the heatshield and backshell, unlike MEDLI (the first sensor suite), which was located solely on the heat-shield. The sensors will measure supersonic pressure on the forebody, a pressure measurement on the aftbody, near-surface and in-depth temperatures in the heatshield and backshell TPS materials, direct total heat flux on the aftbody, and direct radiative heating on the aftbody. Instrument Development: The supersonic pressure transducers, the direct heat flux sensors, and the radiometer all were tested during the development phase. The status of these sensors, including the piezo-resistive pressure sensors, will be presented. The current plans for qualification and calibration for all of the sensors will also be discussed. Post-Flight Data Analysis: Similar to MEDLI, the estimated flight trajectory will be reconstructed from the data. The aerodynamic parameters that will be reconstructed will be the axial force coefficient, freestream Mach number, base pressure, atmospheric density, and winds. The aerothermal quantities that will be determined are the heatshield and backshell aero-heating, turbulence transition across the heatshield, and TPS in-depth performance of PICA. By directly measuring the radiative and total heat fluxes on the back-shell, the convective portion of the heat flux will be estimated. The status of the current tools to perform the post-flight data analysis will be presented, along with plans for model improvements.

Hwang, Helen↗

Forecasting Megaelectron-Volt Electrons Inside Earth's Outer Radiation Belt: PreMevE 2.0 Based on Supervised Machine Learning Algorithms

We present the recent progress in upgrading a predictive model for megaelectron-volt (MeV) electrons inside the Earth's outer Van Allen belt. This updated model, called PreMevE 2.0, provides improved forecasts, particularly at outer L-shells, by adding upstream solar wind speeds to the model's input parameter list that originally includes precipitating electrons observed at low Earth orbits and MeV electron fluxes in situ measured by a geosynchronous satellite. Furthermore, based on several kinds of linear and artificial neural networks algorithms, a list of models was constructed, trained, validated, and tested with 42-month MeV electron observations from Van Allen Probes. Out-of-sample test results from these models show that, with optimized model hyperparameters and input parameter combinations, the top performer from each category of models has the similar capability of making reliable 1-day (2-day) forecasts of 1-MeV electron flux distributions with performance efficiency values ~0.87 (~0.82) averaged over the L-shell range of 2.8–6.6, significantly outperforming the previous version of PreMevE particularly at L-shells > ~4.5. Interestingly, the linear regression model is often the most successful when compared to other models, which suggests the relationship between dynamics of trapped 1-MeV electrons and precipitating electrons is dominated by linear components. Results also show that PreMevE 2.0 can reasonably well predict the onsets of MeV electron events in 2-day forecasts. PreMevE 2.0 is designed to be driven by observations from longstanding space infrastructure to make high-fidelity forecasts for MeV electrons, thus can be an invaluable space weather forecasting tool for the future.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Tropical Oceanic Precipitation Processes over Warm Pool: 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Rainfall is a key link in the hydrologic cycle as well as the primary heat source for the atmosphere, The vertical distribution of convective latent-heat release modulates the large-scale circulations of the tropics, Furthermore, changes in the moisture distribution at middle and upper levels of the troposphere can affect cloud distributions and cloud liquid water and ice contents. How the incoming solar and outgoing longwave radiation respond to these changes in clouds is a major factor in assessing climate change. Present large-scale weather and climate models simulate cloud processes only crudely, reducing confidence in their predictions on both global and regional scales. One of the most promising methods to test physical parameterizations used in General Circulation Models (GCMS) and climate models is to use field observations together with Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The CRMs use more sophisticated and physically realistic parameterizations of cloud microphysical processes, and allow for their complex interactions with solar and infrared radiative transfer processes. The CRMs can reasonably well resolve the evolution, structure, and life cycles of individual clouds and cloud systems, The major objective of this paper is to investigate the latent heating, moisture and momenti,im budgets associated with several convective systems developed during the TOGA COARE IFA - westerly wind burst event (late December, 1992). The tool for this study is the Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (CCE) model which includes a 3-class ice-phase microphysical scheme, The model domain contains 256 x 256 grid points (using 2 km resolution) in the horizontal and 38 grid points (to a depth of 22 km depth) in the vertical, The 2D domain has 1024 grid points. The simulations are performed over a 7 day time period. We will examine (1) the precipitation processes (i.e., condensation/evaporation) and their interaction with warm pool; (2) the heating and moisture budgets in the convective and stratiform regions; (3) the cloud (upward-downward) mass fluxes in convective and stratiform regions; (4) characteristics of clouds (such as cloud size, updraft intensity and cloud lifetime) and the comparison of clouds with Radar observations. Differences and similarities in organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems. Preliminary results indicated that there is major differences between 2D and 3D simulated stratiform rainfall amount and convective updraft and downdraft mass fluxes.

Tao, W.- K.↗

PipeSight: A High-Performance Computing Platform for Pipeline Integrity Management

The Phase I feasibility study completed as part of this project has led to a number of innovative technologies being developed and has laid the foundation for a successful Phase II effort to commercialize a platform for managing the integrity of pipelines for the damage mechanisms of the new, hybrid-energy based economy. To ground the development efforts and direction of the project, an extensive market research and customer discovery effort was undertaken early in Phase I. Through this effort, a number of pipeline owners and operators were interviewed, and the following key findings were discovered about the pipeline industry: • Small pipeline operators do not have the central engineering groups necessary to perform their own independent analysis of inspection data, but instead rely on summarized tally sheets provided to them by inspection service providers. • The time it takes to go from an inspection to a completed engineering assessment, even for small segments of pipeline, can take anywhere from 30-120 days. During this delay, critical threats can (and have been known to) cause failures. • Uncertainty is often not accounted for in the assessment of pipeline integrity. The tally sheets provided by third-party service providers are almost always deterministic in nature, identifying threats that present a concern only to the current (not the future) integrity of the pipeline. • It is uncommon to apply the latest technologies to perform advanced assessments of damaged pipelines. There is a desire to use more advanced analysis capabilities to assess threats. Many pipeline operators indicated that they would often excavate a pipeline to perform an inspection and find that the damage was not as bad as they anticipated, thus using limited resources unnecessarily. Companies are not consistent in their use of inspection data to determine corrosion rates, and those that do only calculate deterministic corrosion rates. • The industry has prominently relied on time-based inspections but has recently started to transition to risk-based inspections. However, there appears to be no uniform guidance on how to do so while properly accounting for all sources of uncertainty. • Companies are not storing inspection data in a manner that allows for the ready determination of temporal trends. • Predictive maintenance principles and practices are beginning to be used by early adopters • Some pipelines are being re-purposed to transport different process fluids than they were designed for, e.g., H 2 and CO 2 rich process streams to serve the new hybrid-energy based economy, which are presenting new integrity concerns for the existing pipeline network that crisscrosses the United States. As a result of these discoveries, we were able to target the development efforts in Phase I to best serve the needs of the industry. In Phase I, we developed a way to correlate multiple large-scale scans of the pipeline to determine a probabilistic corrosion rate that accounts for all sources of error and uncertainty in the inspection process. This probabilistic corrosion rate can be used to predict the future thickness distribution of the pipe wall. We demonstrate how this analysis may be performed in an analytical fashion and has been implemented in such a manner that it can be readily distributed using GPU computing through integration of the Kokkos programming model. We also make a very novel extension of the analytical corrosion rate model to Bayesian Networks (an explainable AI technique) that can account for non-parametric distributions of corrosion rates. With the predictions made above for the probabilistic corrosion rate and corresponding future distribution of the pipe wall thickness, we can assess the integrity of the pipeline through the use of a probabilistic engineering assessment. We developed a novel screening data analysis approach that can rapidly identify ‘hotspots’ (local thin areas) where the integrity of the pipeline is a concern. Once more, we implemented this screening approach in C++ to leverage GPU computing via the Kokkos programming model. After the critical hotspots are identified, we developed a program that can automatically generate an advanced finite element model of the damaged regions. Since the number of damaged regions that require advanced analysis can number in the thousands, we integrated an open-source container-native workflow engine for orchestrating parallel jobs on the cloud. Initially, these advanced numerical models were only designed to account for loading due to internal pressure. However, in a slight pivot from the initial Phase I proposal, we developed a complete pipe stress analysis program (called Simflex) which can simulate the complete pipeline and its response to thermal expansion, pressure, thermal bowing, weight, wind, earthquake, support displacement, support friction and external forces. This pipe stress analysis program was written generically, to handle any piping system, but contains the features needed to model long pipelines (i.e., it incorporates a model for soil mechanics and can account for the nonlinear boundary conditions necessary to simulate long underground pipelines). This pipe stress analysis program can simulate any segment of the pipeline (simple or complex) under any set of conditions and loads, to determine the supplemental loads (axial forces and bending moments) at the location of damage. This enables the most accurate state of stress to be accounted for in the pipeline, which can prove critical when evaluating the integrity of a damaged region. In the process of developing the technologies to perform the integrity assessment of the pipeline, we also extended one of the industry standard approaches for performing the assessment of local thin areas that extend more in the circumferential direction than the longitudinal direction of the pipeline. This approach was presented to the API 579-1/AS ME FFS-1 steering committee in November 2021 for consideration in the next edition of the industry standard for Fitness-For-Service (expected to be released in 2023). To help pipeline operators make decisions with the results on any integrity assessment, we developed a new approach to the life-cycle management of pipelines which uses a Bayesian Decision Network. The network is designed to help pipeline operators plan and prioritize inspection activities and ultimately make smarter, more cost-effective decisions. The Bayesian approach accounts for all sources of uncertainty and carries them through to the final optimal decisions, providing a probabilistic framework for optimizing inspection intervals. The proof-of-concept networks developed in the feasibility study are complete, verified, and are focused on a subset of the pipeline. To expand this novel approach to the scale necessary for an entire network of pipelines in Phase II, we will leverage the DOE-funded Bengi solver for industrial-scale decision making with Bayesian Networks [22]. Once implemented, we will be able to provide the pipeline industry with a much-needed tool for optimal inspection planning using truly explainable artificial intelligence (XAI). To handle all of these advanced capabilities into a cloud-based platform, the architecture of the Equity Engineering Cloud (EEC) was extended to include Argo Workflows, a framework capable of distributing and managing a massive number of jobs that consume their own resources, such that thousands of serial finite element simulations can be run in parallel. As part of this substantial undertaking, we also integrated Argo Continuous Delivery (CD) into the EEC, to aid with the rapid prototyping and iterations that will be imperative to the success of the PipeSight platform’s Agile development process in Phase II. As part of the pipe stress analysis program, we also developed a custom visualizer that leverages the DOE-funded VTK visualization library. We added custom contouring capabilities and a means for interacting visually with both the inputs and outputs of the pipe stress analysis program. We also developed routines for automating the post-processing of the finite element simulations to determine if any failure criteria are met and to visualize the deformations, stresses and strains in ParaView using the exodus II file format (a subset of netCDF).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer Based Hydrogen Production Facility

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at NREL's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

An uncertainty quantification method relevant to material test reactors

Within material test reactor calculations, energy dependent flux and reaction rate uncertainties are typically not quantified when performing as-run analyses to determine the neutron field experienced by the experiment. When high fidelity Monte-Carlo codes are used in such analyses, straight forward methods to calculate output uncertainties are not available, instead expert opinion is used to postulate computational uncertainties. New methods to propagate uncertainties through these high fidelity simulations are available when sufficient computational power is available. A tool is developed here for sampling any part of an MCNP input from random distributions to determine output uncertainties based on those inputs. Another tool is developed to sample nuclear data cross-section in ACE format using multi-group nuclear data covariances. The Total Monte-Carlo Method and Gesellschaft für Anlagen-und Reaktorsicherheit method (GRS) are implemented and compared to one another as well as MCNP sensitivity and uncertainty calculations. The methods were applied to the Godiva critical sphere k-eigenvalue, the UAM pin-cell benchmark energy dependent flux and reaction rates, and the Advanced Test Reactor energy dependent flux within an experimental location. Furthermore, the two methods agree well, with GRS allowing for an order of magnitude speedup for reaction rate uncertainty calculations and several orders of magnitude for eigenvalue uncertainty calculations.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Development of a Digital Twin for Hydrogen Dispersion and Safety Assessment in an Electrolyzer-Based Hydrogen Production Facility: Preprint

Digital twin models are virtual representations of physical systems that use real-time data to simulate and optimize performance. This study presents the development and initial implementation of a digital twin (DT) for the electrolyzer-based hydrogen production facility at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)'s Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), focused on enhancing safety and optimizing sensor placement through physics-based simulations and metadata integration. The DT incorporates detailed facility-specific information, including component layout, leak locations, and controlled release parameters, to model hydrogen dispersion under varying environmental conditions. Using steady-state computational fluid dynamics (CFD) simulations informed by real meteorological data, such as wind speed, direction, and vertical wind profiles, the DT enables visualization of hydrogen plume behavior and spatial concentration distributions. Comparative analysis between high and low wind speed scenarios illustrates the significant influence of wind dynamics on plume shape and extent, with horizontal momentum dominating dispersion at higher speeds, while buoyancy effects become more prominent under low wind conditions. These simulations generate a rich dataset embedded within the DT, allowing users to assess potential leak outcomes and identify optimal sensor locations based on concentration thresholds. The model supports scenario-based analysis to guide safety strategies and equipment deployment for open-area hydrogen infrastructure. The digital twin thus serves as a dynamic platform for virtual prototyping, providing predictive insight into hydrogen behavior and enhancing risk-informed decision-making. This initial phase establishes a validated foundation for future integration of transient, uncontrolled leak scenarios and real-time sensor feedback, positioning the DT as a critical tool for safety design, operational planning, and adaptive monitoring in hydrogen systems. Overall, the approach demonstrates the value of combining environmental data with digital simulations to inform safer and more efficient deployment of hydrogen technologies.

08 HYDROGEN↗

Wind Tunnel Measurements of the Wake of a Full-Scale UH-60A Rotor in Forward Flight

A full-scale UH-60A rotor was tested in the National Full-Scale Aerodynamics Complex (NFAC) 40- by 80-Foot Wind Tunnel in May 2010. The test was designed to acquire a suite of measurements to validate state-of-the-art modeling tools. Measurements include blade airloads (from a single pressure-instrumented blade), blade structural loads (strain gages), rotor performance (rotor balance and torque measurements), blade deformation (stereo-photogrammetry), and rotor wake measurements (Particle Image Velocimetry (PIV) and Retro-reflective Backward Oriented Schlieren (RBOS)). During the test, PIV measurements of flow field velocities were acquired in a stationary cross-flow plane located on the advancing side of the rotor disk at approximately 90 deg rotor azimuth. At each test condition, blade position relative to the measurement plane was varied. The region of interest (ROI) was 4-ft high by 14-ft wide and covered the outer half of the blade radius. Although PIV measurements were acquired in only one plane, much information can be gleaned by studying the rotor wake trajectory in this plane, especially when such measurements are augmented by blade airloads and RBOS data. This paper will provide a comparison between PIV and RBOS measurements of tip vortex position and vortex filament orientation for multiple rotor test conditions. Blade displacement measurements over the complete rotor disk will also be presented documenting blade-to-blade differences in tip-path-plane and providing additional information for correlation with PIV and RBOS measurements of tip vortex location. In addition, PIV measurements of tip vortex core diameter and strength will be presented. Vortex strength will be compared with measurements of maximum bound circulation on the rotor blade determined from pressure distributions obtained from 235 pressure sensors distributed over 9 radial stations.

Wadcock, Alan J.↗

Influences of lidar scanning parameters on wind turbine wake retrievals in complex terrain

Abstract. Scanning lidars enable the collection of spatially distributed measurements of turbine wakes and the estimation of wake properties such as magnitude, extent, and trajectory. Lidar-based characterizations, however, may be subject to distortions due to the observational system. Distortions can arise from the resolution of the measurement points across the wake, the projection of the winds onto the beam, averaging along the beam probe volume, and intervening evolution of the flow over the scan duration. Using a large-eddy simulation and simulated measurements with a virtual lidar model, we assess how scanning lidar systems may influence the properties of the retrieved wake using a case study from the Perdigão campaign. We consider three lidars performing range-height indicator sweeps in complex terrain, based on the deployments of lidars from the Danish Technical University (DTU) and German Aerospace Center (DLR) at the Perdigão site. The unwaked flow, measured by the DTU lidar, is well-captured by the lidar, even without combining data into a multi-lidar retrieval. The two DLR lidars measure a waked transect from different downwind vantage points. In the region of the wake, the observation system reacts to the smaller spatial and temporal variations of the winds, allowing more significant observation distortions to arise. While the measurements largely capture the wake structure and trajectory over its 4–5 D extent, limited spatial resolution of measurement points and volume averaging lead to a quicker loss of the two lobes in the near wake, smearing of the vertical bounds of the wake (< 30 m), wake center displacements up to 10 m, and dampening of the maximum velocity deficit by up to a third. The virtual lidar tool, coupled with simulations, provides a means for assessing measurement capabilities in advance of measurement campaigns.

17 WIND ENERGY↗