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At least 73 records · Page 4

Lost Circulation Materials in Geothermal Drilling: Thermal Degradation, Viscosity, Compression, and Flow Loop Tests

This dataset provides a set of experimental data on the performance of lost circulation materials (LCMs) used in geothermal drilling operations. It includes results from four distinct tests: thermal degradation, viscosity measurements, compression tests, and high-temperature flow loop experiments. The materials tested, such as cedar fiber, cotton seed hulls, magma fiber, microcellulose, and sawdust, were analyzed under a range of conditions to assess their effectiveness in mitigating fluid losses in geothermal wells. Data on thermal degradation explores mass loss, water loss, and gas release for each material when subjected to temperatures between 90C and 250C. Viscosity measurements capture the behavior of LCM mixtures under different temperatures, while compression tests investigate the structural integrity of both undegraded and thermally degraded materials. The high-temperature flow loop experiments simulate geothermal well conditions, analyzing how different materials and mixtures affect fluid flow and sealing performance in a fractured reservoir environment. In addition to the experimental data, the dataset includes photos documenting the materials, schematics of test setups, and several published manuscripts that provide detailed insights into the experimental methods and findings.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

Representation of the Geosynchronous Plasma Environment for Spacecraft Charging Calculations

Historically, our ability to predict and postdict surface charging has suffered from both a lack of reliable secondary emission and backscattered electron yields and poor characterization of the plasma environment. One difficulty lies in the common practice of fitting the plasma data to a Maxwellian or Double Maxwellian distribution function, which may not represent the data well for charging purposes. For 13 years Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) has been accumulating measurements of electron and proton spectra from Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer (MPA) instruments aboard a series of geosynchronous satellites. These data provide both a plasma characterization and the potential of the instrument ground. We use electron and ion flux spectra measured by the LANL MPA to examine how the use of different spectral representations of the charged particle environment in computations of spacecraft potentials during magnetospheric substorms affects the accuracy of the results. We calculate the spacecraft potential using both the measured fluxes and several different fits to these fluxes. These flux measurements and fits have been corrected for the difference between the measured and calculated potential. The potentials computed using the measured fluxes, the best available material properties of graphite carbon, and a secondary electron escape fraction of 81%, are within a factor of three of the measured potential for nearly all the data. Using a Kappa fit to the electron distribution function and a Maxwellian fit to the ion distribution function gives agreement similar to the calculations using the actual data. Alternative spectral representations, including Maxwellian and double Maxwellian for both species, lead to less satisfactory agreement between predicted and measured potentials.

Davis, V. A.↗

Sympathetic restraint of respiratory sinus arrhythmia: implications for vagal-cardiac tone assessment in humans

Clinicians and experimentalists routinely estimate vagal-cardiac nerve traffic from respiratory sinus arrhythmia. However, evidence suggests that sympathetic mechanisms may also modulate respiratory sinus arrhythmia. Our study examined modulation of respiratory sinus arrhythmia by sympathetic outflow. We measured R-R interval spectral power in 10 volunteers that breathed sequentially at 13 frequencies, from 15 to 3 breaths/min, before and after beta-adrenergic blockade. We fitted changes of respiratory frequency R-R interval spectral power with a damped oscillator model: frequency-dependent oscillations with a resonant frequency, generated by driving forces and modified by damping influences. beta-Adrenergic blockade enhanced respiratory sinus arrhythmia at all frequencies (at some, fourfold). The damped oscillator model fit experimental data well (39 of 40 ramps; r = 0.86 +/- 0.02). beta-Adrenergic blockade increased respiratory sinus arrhythmia by amplifying respiration-related driving forces (P < 0.05), without altering resonant frequency or damping influences. Both spectral power data and the damped oscillator model indicate that cardiac sympathetic outflow markedly reduces heart period oscillations at all frequencies. This challenges the notion that respiratory sinus arrhythmia is mediated simply by vagal-cardiac nerve activity. These results have important implications for clinical and experimental estimation of human vagal cardiac tone.

NASA Discipline Cardiopulmonary↗

NuSTAR and XMM-Newton Observations of the Hard X- Ray Spectrum of Centaurus A

We present simultaneous XMM-Newton and Nuclear Spectroscopic Telescope Array (NuSTAR) observations spanning 3-78 keV of the nearest radio galaxy, Centaurus A (Cen A). The accretion geometry around the central engine in Cen A is still debated, and we investigate possible configurations using detailed X-ray spectral modeling. NuSTAR imaged the central region of Cen A with subarcminute resolution at X-ray energies above 10 keV for the first time, but found no evidence for an extended source or other off-nuclear point sources. The XMM-Newton and NuSTAR spectra agree well and can be described with an absorbed power law with a photon index Gamma = 1.8150 +/- 0.005 and a fluorescent Fe Kaline in good agreement with literature values. The spectrum is greater than 1 MeV. A thermal Comptonization continuum describes the data well, with parameters that agree with values measured by INTEGRAL, in particular an electron temperature kTe between approximately 100-300 keV and seed photon input temperatures between 5 and 50 eV. We do not find evidence for reflection or a broad iron line and put stringent upper limits of R is less than 0.01 on the reflection fraction and accretion disk illumination. We use archival Chandra data to estimate the contribution from diffuse emission, extra-nuclear point sources, and the outer X-ray jet to the observed NuSTAR and XMM-Newton X-ray spectra and find the contribution to be negligible. We discuss different scenarios for the physical origin of the observed hard X-ray spectrum and conclude that the inner disk is replaced by an advection-dominated accretion flow or that the X-rays are dominated by synchrotron self-Compton emission from the inner regions of the radio jet or a combination thereof.

Galaxies: active - galaxies: individual (Centaurus↗

Time-lapse VSP integration and calibration of subsurface stress field utilizing machine learning approaches: A case study of the morrow B formation, FWU

This study aims to develop a methodology for calibrating subsurface stress changes through time-lapse vertical seismic profiling (VSP) integration. The selected study site is a region around the injector well located within Farnsworth field unit (FWU), where there is an ongoing CO 2 -enhanced oil recovery (EOR) operation. In our study, a site-specific rock physics model was created from extensive geological, geophysical, and geomechanical characterization through 3D seismic data, well logs, and core assessed as part of the 1D MEM conducted on the characterization well within the study area. Here, the Biot-Gassmann workflow was utilized to combine the rock physics and reservoir simulation outputs to determine the seismic velocity change due to fluid substitution. Modeled seismic velocities attributed to mean effective stress were determined from the geomechanical simulation outputs, and the stress-velocity relationship developed from ultrasonic seismic velocity measurements. A machine learning-assisted workflow comprised of an artificial neural network and a particle swarm optimizer (PSO) was utilized to minimize a penalty function created between the modeled seismic velocities and the observed time-lapse VSP dataset. The successful execution of this workflow has affirmed the suitability of acoustic time-lapse measurements for 4D-VSP geomechanical stress calibration pending measurable stress sensitivities within the anticipated effective stress changes and the availability of suitable and reliable datasets for petroelastic modeling. © 2023 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Low-Level Jets and the Convergence of Mars Data Assimilation Algorithms

Data assimilation is an increasingly popular technique in Mars atmospheric science, but its effect on the mean states of the underlying atmosphere models has not been thoroughly examined. The robustness of results to the choice of model and assimilation algorithm also warrants further study. We investigate these issues using two Mars general circulation models (MGCMs), with particular emphasis on zonal wind and temperature fields. When temperature retrievals from the Mars Global Surveyor Thermal Emission Spectrometer (TES) are assimilated into the U.K.-Laboratoire de M ́et ́eorologie Dynamique (UK-LMD) MGCM to create the Mars Analysis Correction Data Assimilation (MACDA) reanalysis, low-level zonal jets in the winter northern hemisphere shift equatorward and weaken relative to a free-running control simulation from the same MGCM. The Ensemble Mars Atmosphere Reanalysis System (EMARS) reanalysis, which is also based on TES temperature retrievals, also shows jet weakening (but less if any shifting) relative to a control simulation performed with the underlying Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) MGCM. Examining higher levels of the atmosphere, monthly mean three-dimensional temperature and zonal wind fields are in generally better agreement between the two reanalyses than between the two control simulations. In conjunction with information about the MGCMs’ physical parametrizations, intercomparisons between the various reanalyses and control simulations suggest that overall the EMARS control run is plausibly less biased (relative to the true state of the Martian atmosphere) than the MACDA control run. Implications for future observational studies are discussed. Plain Language Summary An increasingly popular way to study Martian weather and climate is to combine atmospheric temperature observations with a computer model (specifically, a global climate model). The process of combining model and observations is called “data assimilation”, and the resulting merged data set is called a “reanalysis”. One advantage of reanalyses is that they include variables (such as wind) that are not directly observed. For scientific and practical applications we want these variables to be reasonably accurate— however, it is not clear how well data assimilation algorithms compute them. Our study investigates this issue using two Mars reanalyses and two model simulations that do not assimilate temperature data. We focus on slowly-varying atmospheric phenomena (timescales from 10 Mars days to a season). Assimilating temperature data into two different global climate models changes the strength and/or spatial pattern of east-west winds at low altitudes. Furthermore, monthly mean three-dimensional temperature and east-west wind fields agree better between reanalyses than between non-assimilating model simulations. This suggests that the data assimilation process is basically successful. One non-assimilating model simulation has less realistic representations of atmospheric physical processes than the other—we argue that this plausibly gives it larger biases relative to the true state of the atmosphere.

Todd A Mooring↗

A comparison of model validation approaches for echo state networks using climate model replicates

As global temperatures continue to rise, climate mitigation strategies such as stratospheric aerosol injections (SAI) are increasingly discussed, but the downstream effects of these strategies are not well understood. As such, there is interest in developing statistical methods to quantify the evolution of climate variable relationships during the time period surrounding an SAI. Feature importance applied to echo state network (ESN) models has been proposed as a way to understand the effects of SAI using a data-driven model. This approach depends on the ESN fitting the data well. If not, the feature importance may place importance on features that are not representative of the underlying relationships. Typically, time series prediction models such as ESNs are assessed using out-of-sample performance metrics that divide the times series into separate training and testing sets. However, this model assessment approach is geared towards forecasting applications and not scenarios such as the motivating SAI example where the objective is using a data driven model to capture variable relationships. Here, in this paper, we demonstrate a novel use of climate model replicates to investigate the applicability of the commonly used repeated hold-out model assessment approach for the SAI application. Simulations of an SAI are generated using a simplified climate model, and different initialization conditions are used to provide independent training and testing sets containing the same SAI event. The climate model replicates enable out-of-sample measures of model performance, which are compared to the single time series hold-out validation approach. For our case study, it is found that the repeated hold-out sample performance is comparable, but conservative, to the replicate out-of-sample performance when the training set contains enough time after the aerosol injection.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

InSAR Scientific Computing Environment

This computing environment is the next generation of geodetic image processing technology for repeat-pass Interferometric Synthetic Aperture (InSAR) sensors, identified by the community as a needed capability to provide flexibility and extensibility in reducing measurements from radar satellites and aircraft to new geophysical products. This software allows users of interferometric radar data the flexibility to process from Level 0 to Level 4 products using a variety of algorithms and for a range of available sensors. There are many radar satellites in orbit today delivering to the science community data of unprecedented quantity and quality, making possible large-scale studies in climate research, natural hazards, and the Earth's ecosystem. The proposed DESDynI mission, now under consideration by NASA for launch later in this decade, would provide time series and multiimage measurements that permit 4D models of Earth surface processes so that, for example, climate-induced changes over time would become apparent and quantifiable. This advanced data processing technology, applied to a global data set such as from the proposed DESDynI mission, enables a new class of analyses at time and spatial scales unavailable using current approaches. This software implements an accurate, extensible, and modular processing system designed to realize the full potential of InSAR data from future missions such as the proposed DESDynI, existing radar satellite data, as well as data from the NASA UAVSAR (Uninhabited Aerial Vehicle Synthetic Aperture Radar), and other airborne platforms. The processing approach has been re-thought in order to enable multi-scene analysis by adding new algorithms and data interfaces, to permit user-reconfigurable operation and extensibility, and to capitalize on codes already developed by NASA and the science community. The framework incorporates modern programming methods based on recent research, including object-oriented scripts controlling legacy and new codes, abstraction and generalization of the data model for efficient manipulation of objects among modules, and well-designed module interfaces suitable for command- line execution or GUI-programming. The framework is designed to allow users contributions to promote maximum utility and sophistication of the code, creating an open-source community that could extend the framework into the indefinite future.

Rosen, Paul A.↗

Adjoint-Based Inversion of Geodetic Data for Sources of Deformation and Strain

An adjoint-based formulation leads to a particularly efficient approach for inverting geodetic measurements for the source of the deformation. Specifically, the quantities necessary to iteratively improve the fit to the observations can be computed with just three forward calculations, one to obtain the current residuals, another to solve the adjoint problem, and a third to compute the step length. An inversion algorithm utilizing the adjoint-based gradient is applied to a set of Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar (InSAR) data gathered between 2016 and 2018 over the Tulare Basin in California's Central Valley. Because the measured deformation is due to groundwater withdrawal, a penalty function is included in the inversion to avoid placing aquifer volume change in locations that are far from any documented wells. The solution of the inverse problem provides estimates of aquifer compaction that provide a match to the observed range changes while honoring the well data. The solution indicates an average aquifer volume loss of 2.17 km 3 /year over the two year period from January 2016 to January 2018, encompassing one drought year (2016) and one wet year (2017). Finally, this magnitude of lost volume is compatible with the 3.1 km 3 /year decrease in water volume for the entire Central Valley, estimated from GRACE satellite gravity data.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

The Ultra-High-Energy Source MGRO J1908+06

The TeV gamma-ray source MGRO J1908+06 is one of the highest-energy sources known, with observed emission by the High Altitude Water Cherenkov (HAWC) Observatory extending well past 100 TeV. The source exhibits both energy-dependent morphology and a spatially-dependent spectral index. The emission is likely to be dominantly leptonic, and associated with the radio-quiet PSR J1907+0602. However, one-population models do not describe the data well; a second particle population is needed to explain the shape of the spectral energy distribution at the highest energies. This component can be well-described by either leptonic or hadronic hypotheses. We discuss this feature and implications for detection by multi-wavelength and multi-messenger experiments.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

Central Valley Water Resources II: Groundwater Sustainability Management Support in the California Central Valley using GRACE and InSAR Datasets

California’s Central Valley is one of the most productive agricultural regions in the United States, producing a fourth of the nation’s food supply. The water demand in this region is heavily dependent on groundwater resources, resulting in over pumping of aquifers at unsustainable rates during recent periods of severe drought. Over the past century, Central Valley aquifers have experienced a significant decline in groundwater levels, resulting in land subsidence and irreversible loss in groundwater storage. In 2014, the state enacted the Sustainable Groundwater Management Act, requiring high and medium priority subbasins to suspend overdraft and achieve sustainable levels of pumping and recharge by 2042.The California Department of Water Resources (DWR) oversees subbasin groundwater management; however, monitoring remains challenging due to sparse and inconsistent in situ data. To assist the DWR, this project developed a user-friendly executable application and an interactive visualization tool to quantify groundwater storage and land subsidence trends using remotely sensed and in situ data. The team utilized NASA’s Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment (GRACE), GRACE Follow-On (GRACE-FO), Sentinel-1 C-band Synthetic Aperture Radar (C-SAR) interferograms, and Advanced Land Observing Satellite 2 (ALOS-2) Phased Array L-band Synthetic Aperture Radar 2 (PALSAR-2) interferograms in conjunction with well and GPS measurements to analyze groundwater and subsidence trends. GRACE and well data returns produced a strong Pearson correlation of .84, while Sentinel-1 and GPS data returns produced a Pearson correlation of .41 over the entire Central Valley. These findings suggest remotely sensed GRACE and interferometric SAR data can be used in the absence of in situ data.

DEVELOP Project Summary↗

Test and Analysis Correlation for Sandwich Composite Longitudinal Joint Specimens

The NASA Composite Technology for Exploration (CTE) project is tasked with evaluating methods to analyze and manufacture composite joints for potential use in block upgrades to the Space Launch System (SLS) launch-vehicle structures such as the Payload Attach Fitting (PAF). To perform this task, the CTE project has initiated test and analysis correlation studies for composite joints under various loading conditions. Herein, NASA-developed numerical models are correlated with the experimental results from a series of tension tests. Pretest strain results matched the far-field test data well, but did not capture the nonlinear response in the vicinity of the joint. A refined pretest analytical model was modified to represent progressive failure of the specimens at failure locations observed during the experimental tests. The nonlinear strain response from this progressive failure model predicted the delamination failure load within 15% of the test data, but underpredicted the nonlinearity of the strain response. Further study of composite material models that account for the nonlinear shear response of fabric composites is recommended for the composite joint structures considered in this paper.

Mason, Brian H.↗

Integrating Analytical Solutions and U-Net Model for Predicting Groundwater Contaminant Plumes in Pump-and-Treat Systems

Pump-and-treat (P&T) is a common technique for groundwater remediation involving the extraction and treatment of contaminated water above ground. Optimizing the design and operation of the P&T well network is essential for maximizing the system’s effectiveness and efficiency. However, this optimization often necessitates many model evaluations, leading to computationally demanding tasks. This study introduces a novel approach that integrates analytical solutions for groundwater dynamics with the U-Net (Ronneberger et al., 2015) deep learning framework to predict groundwater contaminant plume migration under dynamic pumping conditions. By incorporating the Thiem equation (Thiem, 1906) into the input preprocessing, the U-Net model transforms sparse well data into a continuous spatial field that captures the hydraulic impacts of pumping activities. This integration enables the model to leverage both deep learning capabilities and classical physics-based groundwater theories, enhancing prediction accuracy and computational efficiency. These advancements can facilitate rapid, large-scale evaluations of P&T optimization simulations, allowing for timely and effective decision-making in well placement and system management. We demonstrate the model's robust performance across both simplified transient 2D models and a more complex 3D heterogeneous site model at the 200 West P&T facility at the Hanford Site. The U-Net-based model offers substantial computational advantages, reducing simulation times significantly compared to full physics-based models and providing a powerful tool for rapid site evaluation and P&T system optimization, such as evaluating alternative P&T well network designs. Our findings highlight the potential of advanced machine learning models to significantly enhance the efficiency and sustainability of groundwater remediation efforts, offering a novel application of U-Net architecture in environmental science.

Pump-and-treat↗

Representation of the Geosynchronous Plasma Environment in Spacecraft Charging Calculations

Historically, our ability to predict and postdict spacecraft surface charging has been limited by the characterization of the plasma environment. One difficulty lies in the common practice of fitting the plasma data to a Maxwellian or Double Maxwellian distribution function, which may not represent the data well for charging purposes. We use electron and ion flux spectra measured by the Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) Magnetospheric Plasma Analyzer (MPA) to examine how the use of different spectral representations of the charged particle environment in computations of spacecraft potentials during magnetospheric substorms affects the accuracy of the results. We calculate the spacecraft potential using both the measured fluxes and several different fits to these fluxes. These measured fluxes have been corrected for the difference between the measured and calculated potential. The potential computed using the measured fluxes and the best available material properties of graphite carbon, with a secondary electron escape fraction of 81%, is within a factor of three of the measured potential for 87% of the data. Potentials calculated using a Kappa function fit to the incident electron flux distribution function and a Maxwellian function fit to the incident ion flux distribution function agree with measured potentials nearly as well as do potentials calculated using the measured fluxes. Alternative spectral representations gave less accurate estimates of potential. The use of all the components of the net flux, along with spacecraft specific average material properties, gives a better estimate of the spacecraft potential than the high energy flux alone.

Davis, V. A.↗

Electrical Conductivity of Clayey Rocks and Soils: A Non-Linear Model

It is well-accepted that Archie's law is only applicable to “clean” rocks and soils but fails in “dirty” ones where clay minerals possess an additional component of surface conductivity. Although several models, for example, Waxman-Smits model, were presented to account for this phenomenon, surface conductivity is always inappropriately treated as constant, which actually only holds at high salinities. The essential non-linear characteristic differing over fluid salinities has not been physically or mathematically explained well in those models. Here, we scrutinize the conduction mechanism of clayey rocks and soils and ascribe this non-linear feature to (a) variation of the electrical double layer and (b) the intrinsic clay-and-water conduction pattern. With effective medium theory, we develop an easy-to-use non-linear model that both reflects electrochemical theories and explains the measurement data well. Our model can be used to produce more accurate results for laboratory- and field-scale petrophysical parameter evaluations than the previous models.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Deep energy-pressure regression for a thermodynamically consistent EOS model

Abstract In this paper, we aim to explore novel machine learning (ML) techniques to facilitate and accelerate the construction of universal equation-Of-State (EOS) models with a high accuracy while ensuring important thermodynamic consistency. When applying ML to fit a universal EOS model, there are two key requirements: (1) a high prediction accuracy to ensure precise estimation of relevant physics properties and (2) physical interpretability to support important physics-related downstream applications. We first identify a set of fundamental challenges from the accuracy perspective, including an extremely wide range of input/output space and highly sparse training data. We demonstrate that while a neural network (NN) model may fit the EOS data well, the black-box nature makes it difficult to provide physically interpretable results, leading to weak accountability of prediction results outside the training range and lack of guarantee to meet important thermodynamic consistency constraints. To this end, we propose a principled deep regression model that can be trained following a meta-learning style to predict the desired quantities with a high accuracy using scarce training data. We further introduce a uniquely designed kernel-based regularizer for accurate uncertainty quantification. An ensemble technique is leveraged to battle model overfitting with improved prediction stability. Auto-differentiation is conducted to verify that necessary thermodynamic consistency conditions are maintained. Our evaluation results show an excellent fit of the EOS table and the predicted values are ready to use for important physics-related tasks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Filling the Gaps: A Bayesian Mixture Model for Imputing Missing Soil Water Content Data

ABSTRACT Soil water content (SWC) data are central to evaluating how soil moisture varies over time and space and influences critical plant and ecosystem functions, especially in water‐limited drylands. However, sensors that record SWC at high frequencies often malfunction, leading to incomplete timeseries and limiting our understanding of dryland ecosystem dynamics. We developed an analytical approach to impute missing SWC data, which we tested at six eddy flux tower sites along an elevation gradient in the southwestern United States. We impute missing data as a mixture of linearly interpolated SWC between the observed endpoints of a missing data gap and SWC simulated by an ecosystem water balance model (SOILWAT2). Within a Bayesian framework, we allowed the relative utility (mixture weight) of each component (linearly interpolated vs. SOILWAT2) to vary by depth, site and gap characteristics. We explored “fixed” weights versus “dynamic” weights that vary as a function of cumulative precipitation, average temperature, and time since the start of the gap. Both models estimated missing SWC data well ( R 2 = 0.70–0.88 vs. 0.75–0.91 for fixed vs. dynamic weights, respectively), but the utility of linearly interpolated versus SOILWAT2 values depended on site and depth. SOILWAT2 was more useful for more arid sites, shallower depths, longer and warmer gaps and gaps that received greater precipitation. Overall, the mixture model reliably gap‐fills SWC, while lending insight into processes governing SWC dynamics. This approach to impute missing data could be adapted to accommodate more than two mixture components and other types of environmental timeseries.

Ogle, Kiona [School of Informatics, Computing, and↗

The Cretaceous-Tertiary Impact Crater and the Cosmic Projectile that Produced it

Evidence gathered to date from topographic data, geophysical data, well logs, and drill-core samples indicates that the buried Chicxulub basin, the source crater for the approximately 65 Ma Cretaceous-Tertiary (K/T) boundary deposits, is approximately 300 km in diameter. A prominent topographic ridge and a ring of gravity anomalies mark the position of the basin rim at approximately 150 km from the center. Wells in this region recovered thick sequences of impact-generated breccias at 200-300 m below present sea level. Inside the rim, which has been severely modified by erosion following impact, the subsurface basin continues to deepen until near the center it is approximately 1 km deep. The best planetary analog for this crater appears to be the 270 km-diameter Mead basin on Venus. Seismic reflection data indicate that the central zone of downward displacement and excavation (the transient crater is approximately 130 km in diameter, consistent with previous studies of gravity anomaly data). Our analysis of projectile characteristics utilizes this information, coupled with conventional scaling relationships, and geochemical constraints on the mass of extraterrestrial material deposited within the K/T boundary layer. Results indicate that the Chicxulub crater would most likely be formed by a long-period comet composed primarily of nonsilicate materials (ice, hydrocarbons, etc.) and subordinate amounts (less than or equal to 50 percent) primitive chondritic material. This collision would have released the energy equivalent to between 4 x 10(exp 8) and 4 x 10(exp 9) megatons of TNT. Studies of terrestrial impact rates suggest that such an event would have a mean production rate of approximately 1.25 x 10(exp -9) y(exp -1). This rate is considerably lower than that of the major mass extinctions over the last 250 million years (approximately 5 x 10(exp -7) y(exp -1). Consequently, while there is substantial circumstantial evidence establishing the cause-effect link between the Chicxulub basin forming event and the K/T biological extinctions, the results of our analysis do not support models of impact as a common or singular causative agent of mass extinctions on Earth.

Sharpton, Virgil L.↗