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At least 73 records · Page 4

Studies of Alternative Ventilation Configurations to Mitigate Airborne Exposure Risks in Office Spaces

The objective of this study was to evaluate the impact of alternative ventilation configurations on airflow patterns and potential exposure risks in office spaces. Two existing conference rooms at Sandia NM were modeled using Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) simulations to characterize airflow patterns and potential airborne exposure risks in well-mixed and once-through (through-flow) ventilation conditions. Multiple scenarios were studied to evaluate the impact of occupancy, Plexiglass barriers, and a modified-return airflow configuration. Experimental and visualization tests were also conducted to validate the well-mixed and through-flow models and findings. The simulations demonstrated that the modified-return airflow configuration that promoted through-flow conditions reduced pathogen concentrations within the space compared to the well-mixed airflow configuration; occupancy reduction only reduced the number of exposed individuals, and Plexiglass barriers had almost no effect. The experimentally measured air speeds at nine anemometer locations generally matched the simulated airflow velocities, and a fog-purge visualization test was also consistent with simulated results of plume movement and dissipation. The visualization tests demonstrated improvements in air change rate with the modified return, which promoted through-flow conditions, versus the original well-mixed ventilation configuration. The results of this study demonstrate that minor modifications to a space that promote through-flow conditions can improve air quality and reduce pathogen concentrations. Additional airflow modeling and testing of alternative occupied space configurations are recommended to further inform room designs that mitigate airborne exposure risks for occupants.

42 ENGINEERING↗

How New Mexico Leveraged a COVID-19 Case Forecasting Model to Preemptively Address the Healthcare Needs of the State: Quantitative Analysis

Prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, US hospitals relied on static projections of future trends for long-term planning and were only beginning to consider forecasting methods for short-term planning of staffing and other resources. With the overwhelming burden imposed by COVID-19 on the health care system, an emergent need exists to accurately forecast hospitalization needs within an actionable timeframe. Our goal was to leverage an existing COVID-19 case and death forecasting tool to generate the expected number of concurrent hospitalizations, occupied intensive care unit (ICU) beds, and in-use ventilators 1 day to 4 weeks in the future for New Mexico and each of its five health regions. We developed a probabilistic model that took as input the number of new COVID-19 cases for New Mexico from Los Alamos National Laboratory’s COVID-19 Forecasts Using Fast Evaluations and Estimation tool, and we used the model to estimate the number of new daily hospital admissions 4 weeks into the future based on current statewide hospitalization rates. The model estimated the number of new admissions that would require an ICU bed or use of a ventilator and then projected the individual lengths of hospital stays based on the resource need. By tracking the lengths of stay through time, we captured the projected simultaneous need for inpatient beds, ICU beds, and ventilators. We used a postprocessing method to adjust the forecasts based on the differences between prior forecasts and the subsequent observed data. Thus, we ensured that our forecasts could reflect a dynamically changing situation on the ground. Forecasts made between September 1 and December 9, 2020, showed variable accuracy across time, health care resource needs, and forecast horizon. Forecasts made in October, when new COVID-19 cases were steadily increasing, had an average accuracy error of 20.0%, while the error in forecasts made in September, a month with low COVID-19 activity, was 39.7%. Across health care use categories, state-level forecasts were more accurate than those at the regional level. Although the accuracy declined as the forecast was projected further into the future, the stated uncertainty of the prediction improved. Forecasts were within 5% of their stated uncertainty at the 50% and 90% prediction intervals at the 3- to 4-week forecast horizon for state-level inpatient and ICU needs. However, uncertainty intervals were too narrow for forecasts of state-level ventilator need and all regional health care resource needs. Real-time forecasting of the burden imposed by a spreading infectious disease is a crucial component of decision support during a public health emergency. Our proposed methodology demonstrated utility in providing near-term forecasts, particularly at the state level. This tool can aid other stakeholders as they face COVID-19 population impacts now and in the future.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Modeling and mitigating airborne pathogen risk factors in school buses

Computational fluid dynamics (CFD) models were developed to simulate the impact of different ventilation scenarios on airborne exposure risks in a 72-passenger school bus. Here, scenarios and factors that were investigated included a moving vs. stationary bus, impacts of a heating unit within the bus, and impacts of alternative ventilation scenarios with different combinations of openings (e.g., windows, door, emergency hatch). Results of the simulations showed that when the bus was stationary, use of the heater increased receptor concentrations unless there was another opening. When the bus was moving, simulations with at least two sets of openings separated from each other in the forward and aft directions produced a through-flow condition that reduced concentrations via dilution from outside air by a factor of ten or more. A single opening in a moving bus generally increased concentrations throughout the cabin due to increased mixing with minimal ventilation. The cumulative exposure risk (time-averaged concentrations) was found to be inversely correlated to the air exchange rate. Stationary and moving-bus scenarios that yielded above ~20 air changes per hour resulted in the lowest cumulative exposures. Recommendations from this study were implemented in new safety and operating procedures by the Albuquerque Public Schools Transportation Center.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Results of a Multi-institutional Phase 2 Clinical Trial for 4DCT-ventilation Functional Avoidance Thoracic Radiation Therapy

Radiation pneumonitis remains a major limitation in the radiation therapy treatment of patients with lung cancer. Functional avoidance radiation therapy uses functional imaging to reduce pulmonary toxic effects by designing radiation therapy plans that reduce doses to functional regions of the lung. Lung functional imaging has been developed that uses 4-dimensional computed tomography (4DCT) imaging to calculate 4DCT-based lung ventilation (4DCT-ventilation). A phase 2 multicenter study was initiated to evaluate 4DCT-ventilation functional avoidance radiation therapy. The study hypothesis was that functional avoidance radiation therapy could reduce the rate of grade ≥2 radiation pneumonitis to 12% compared with a 25% historical rate, with the trial being positive if ≤16.4% of patients experienced grade ≥2 pneumonitis.

62 RADIOLOGY AND NUCLEAR MEDICINE↗

Gaseous contaminant transfer in membrane-based air-to-air energy exchangers

Membrane-based air-to-air energy exchangers (M–AAEEs) transfer heat and moisture between building exhaust air and fresh ventilation air streams through a membrane, thereby reducing the energy required for conditioning the fresh ventilation air. Energy exchangers are typically used in buildings with relatively clean building exhaust air, such as office buildings and schools. Recently interest in using energy exchangers in a wider range of buildings has grown, to reduce the energy consumption associated with the heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems in these buildings. However, if the building exhaust air is not clean, as would be the case for laboratories or factories, new risks are encountered when using energy exchangers. It is possible that gaseous contaminants in the exhaust air may also transfer along with the moisture through the membranes, contaminating the incoming fresh ventilation air. Current test standards provide a test procedure to determine the contamination of the fresh ventilation air by measuring the transfer of an inert tracer gas in an energy exchanger. However, the tracer gas test may not represent the transfer of common indoor air contaminants due to differences in their transport properties. Therefore, in this study, an experimental facility is developed to determine the transfer of seven different contaminants through two membranes (porous and dense) at different flow rates. Contaminant transfer is quantified using a parameter called the exhaust contaminant transfer ratio (ECTR), which gives the fraction of the contaminants transferred from the exhaust air to the fresh ventilation air. A theoretical model based on the effectiveness-number of transfer units (ε-NTU) correlation and moisture transfer resistance of the membrane is presented to determine transfer through porous membranes and validated with experimental results. The major contribution of this paper is that it presents a simple method to predict the transfer of different contaminants through a porous membrane based on the moisture transfer resistance of the membrane at different operating conditions. It is found that as contaminant diffusivity decreases, ECTR generally also decreases, and as the flow rate increases, ECTR decreases, which is consistent with the predictions from the correlation.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comparative experimental study of heat transfer processes in accumulation energy recovery exchangers

In this study, an experimental comparison between three different energy accumulating ceramic heat exchangers for energy recovery in ventilation systems was presented. The units were selected to represent three different approaches on the energy recovery process: honeycomb structure with more accumulation mass (more energy can be stored in one unit)- Unit 1.1, honeycomb structure with lower accumulation mass- Unit 1.2, and a rectangular structure with expanded heat transfer surface- Unit 1.3. The achieved results are useful for the future application of such units in ventilation systems. It was established that all evaluated units demonstrated an acceptable effectiveness of thermal energy recovery from the exhaust air. Their average energy recovery efficiency ranged between 70 % and 80 %, aligning with expected performance benchmarks for regenerative heat exchangers employed in contemporary mechanical ventilation systems. It was also established that the factor which has the highest impact on thermal effectiveness is the heat transfer surface available in the tested heat exchangers. Units with the highest number of channels (i.e., with the highest amount of single channel walls, which can be used for heat transfer) achieve the highest thermal effectiveness. However, higher thermal effectiveness can negatively affect the ventilation potential of the units. Unit 1.3, which was characterized by the highest thermal efficiency, was also characterized by the lowest achievable flow rate. It was also found that the important technical aspect that should be taken into account when analyzing accumulation energy recovery units is also the fluctuation of the supply air temperature. The ability to ensure minimal temperature fluctuations is a significant operational advantage, as it ensures a higher level of safety at lower outside temperatures.

Energy recovery↗

Weather responsive smart ventilation system using multiple optimization parameters

A smart ventilation system which uses outdoor temperature and moisture to optimize control of the system. The main principle is to shift ventilation from time periods that have large indoor-outdoor temperature and moisture differences to periods when these differences are smaller, and their energy and comfort impacts are expected to be less. Fan flow rates are reduced when the outside temperature and moisture falls outside of optimum levels, yet overall air exchange is maintained to ensure chronic and acute exposure to pollutants remains relative to best practice. Online weather and smart thermostat data can be used as control inputs, so no specific measurement devices are needed to control ventilation fans.

Parker, Danny↗

Experimental Evaluation of Refrigerant Leak Characteristics for Different HVAC&R Equipment Types–Phase 2

The US Department of Energy (DOE) Building Technology Office (BTO) and the Air-conditioning, Heating & Refrigeration Technology Institute (AHRTI) collaborated to sponsor an experimental study of refrigerant leak characteristics at Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL); AHRTI project 9012. The project has been conducted in two phases with objectives to conduct refrigerant leak tests on several heating, ventilating, air-conditioning and refrigeration (HVAC&R) systems under operating conditions representative of actual applications to document the pressure decay rate and the mass flow rate of leaked refrigerant as a function of time. Phase 1 of the project ran from late 2017 to late 2018 with refrigerant leaks imposed on five systems and the collection of data to meet the project objectives. Systems chosen covered three air-conditioning (AC) applications (packaged terminal AC or PTAC, 3-ton residential split system AC, and 5-ton packaged rooftop AC) and two refrigeration applications (split system unit cooler, and standalone display case). AHRTI members donated the test systems used for the project. The systems were tested at two different leak rates (catastrophic high rate simulating full line break and a lower flow rate), two leak locations (high-pressure side and low-pressure side), and two operating conditions (compressor ON or OFF). Phase 1 results were summarized in a project report by Baxter, et al. (2019)1. The leak rates imposed in Phase 1 led to much more rapid charge releases than the more typical much slower rates seen in practice that would take days, weeks, or months to empty a system of its entire charge. For Phase 2, the project sponsors asked that the “higher” leak rate target a total charge release time of about 4 min. This was intended to represent a “reasonable” worst case release scenario to match the refrigerant leak rate assumption used in the International Electrotechnical Commission (IEC) standard IEC 60335-2-40 (2016 version [IEC 2016]. A charge release time of about 20–40 min (leak release rate 5 to 10 times lower than higher rate) was targeted for the “lower” leak rate. This report provides a summary of the Phase 2 effort. Two additional HVAC systems were selected for testing in this phase. First was a multi-split air-conditioning (MS-AC) system with one outdoor section and two indoor units and a nameplate refrigerant charge of 1.75 kg (3.86 lb.) of R-410A. The MS-AC was tested in cooling only or AC operation. Second was a split system heat pump coupled to two different representative supply duct systems (HP-duct) and a nameplate charge of 3.83 kg (8.44 lb.) of R-410A. This system was tested in both space heating and AC modes. As in Phase 1 of the project, all tests were conducted using R-410A.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Budget Constrained Machine Learning for Early Prediction of Adverse Outcomes for COVID-19 Patients

Background: Machine learning (ML) based risk stratification models of Electronic Health records (EHR) data may help to optimize treatment of COVID-19 patients, but are often limited by their lack of clinical interpretability and cost of laboratory tests. We develop a ML based tool for predicting adverse outcomes based on EHR data to optimize clinical utility under a given cost structure. This cohort study was performed using deidentified EHR data from COVID-19 patients from ProMedica Healthcare in northwest Ohio and southeastern Michigan. Methods: We tested performance of various ML approaches for predicting either increasing ventilatory support or mortality and the set of model features under a budget constraint was optimized via exhaustive search across all combinations of features. Results: The optimal sets of features for predicting ventilation under any budget constraint included demographics and comorbidities (DCM), basic metabolic panel (BMP), D-dimer, lactate dehydrogenase (LDH), erythrocyte sedimentation rate (ESR), CRP, brain natriuretic peptide (BNP), and procalcitonin and for mortality included DCM, BMP, complete blood count, D-dimer, LDH, CRP, BNP, procalcitonin and ferritin. Conclusions: This study presents a quick, accurate and cost-effective method to evaluate risk of deterioration for patients with SARS-CoV-2 infection at the time of clinical evaluation.

Cadena Pico, JoseE.↗

Research and Development of a Ventilation-Integrated Comfort System

From an indoor air quality perspective, the best residential ventilation strategies include filtering outdoor air and distributing that air to all occupied parts of a home. From an energy standpoint, it is desirable that energy be transferred from the exhaust air to the incoming outdoor air to limit heating and cooling impacts. Heat or energy recovery ventilators (HRVs or ERVs) can provide these functions, but researchers have seen many poor installations related to design, installation, and operation and maintenance. More robust ventilation systems may involve an ERV with a dedicated duct distribution system and controls. Such a duct system can be costly to install, and many builders reduce these costs by connecting an ERV to a central heating and cooling duct system. Although this can sometimes be done effectively, researchers have seen consistent challenges with low, inconsistent, or imbalanced flow rates; high electricity consumption; and—of greatest concern—outdoor air short-circuiting or not being delivered to occupied spaces at all. Most ERVs are designed to operate with their own duct system; they are not designed as an add-on to much larger heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems. The ventilation-integrated comfort system (VICS) is expressly designed to integrate with low-capacity, efficient, ducted heating and cooling systems. Overall, the latest VICS prototype consumed 40–75 watts (W), including the air handler power, to deliver 50–120 cfm of whole-dwelling ventilation. The large, cross-flow ERV core performed to match manufacturer values (73% winter sensible effectiveness, 64% summer total effectiveness), but further improvements are possible. The VICS system researched and tested during this project will provide efficient, controllable, balanced energy recovery ventilation that is integrated with heating and cooling systems. The integration reduces space and ductwork needed for separate ventilation systems, and there are no compromises to heating, cooling, or ventilation performance. The integrated nature of the device also reduces risks for improper installation and commissioning. Even when using the air handler blower to distribute outdoor air, the total power consumption is lower than that of most available ERV products in the same airflow range. This system has the potential to offer very high-performance ventilation with much smoother and simpler installation than conventional systems.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗

Development of window scheduler algorithm exploiting natural ventilation and thermal mass for building energy simulation and smart home controls

Building energy simulations often rely on abstract assumptions when it comes to natural ventilation, such as ‘windows always open [or closed]’ or ‘windows open when outdoor temperature is below a certain threshold.’ However, simulations based on these assumptions fail to fully exploit the cooling potential of natural ventilation, as its effectiveness can be enhanced or diminished by various factors, including the presence of thermal mass. This issue also extends to smart home controls, where determining the window schedule becomes challenging without information about the building's response to outdoor conditions. To address these issues, this study has developed an analytical model for window operation schedules that leverages the passive cooling from natural ventilation. The analytical model was validated against a Modelica simulation. A case study utilizing the BESTEST model of ANSI/ASHRAE Standard 140 underwent validation with EnergyPlus simulations, showing strong concordance. The algorithm provides window schedule recommendations adapted to various airflow rates, thermal masses, and climate variations. Notably, the case study demonstrated that proper window scheduling could reduce indoor temperature by up to 8 °C under the given simulation settings, thereby improving resilience and indicating potential energy savings. Furthermore, the paper explores the potential opportunities and challenges this approach presents, especially for building simulation and smart home applications.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Comprehensive Analysis of Model Parameter Uncertainty Influence on Evaluation of HVAC Operation to Mitigate Indoor Virus: A Case Study for an Office Building in a Cold and Dry Climate

Simulation-based studies of HVAC operation to mitigate indoor virus have been conducted to understand tradeoffs between indoor air quality (IAQ) and energy consumption. However, the influence of model parameter uncertainty in these studies has not been systematically quantified, which is critical when providing guidance to building operators. To address this gap, we identify 20 model parameters for a typical medium office building system in a cold and dry climate that can influence IAQ and energy consumption for indoor virus scenarios. Next, the distributions of the parameter values are estimated from literature and a set of simulation samples for three representative days is generated that simultaneously sample all of the parameters from their distributions. Two HVAC virus mitigation strategies are studied: increased filtration using MERV 13 filters and increased ventilation, via supply of 100% outdoor air into buildings. The model parameter uncertainty leads to significant variability in the results, particularly for the IAQ because of the highly uncertain virus generation rate. Use of 100% outdoor air can be beneficial for some uncertain scenarios on the hot day, but shows less IAQ improvement and/or significant energy increases on the other days. The virus removal efficiency and pressure drop of the HVAC filter, fan efficiency, and internal heat gain are the most important parameters to determining the tradeoffs of the two strategies. Our results demonstrate how this model parameter uncertainty analysis methodology can provide practical guidance to building operators.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Securing Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEB) through Cyber Defense and Resilient System (CYDRES)

The DOE CYDRES project is driven by the urgent need to address critical research gaps in the domain of cyber-physical security of smart buildings, including Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings (GEBs). CYDRES, a real-time advanced building resilient platform, aims to enhance the cyber-attack-immune capabilities of buildings through multi-layered prevention, detection, and adaptation mechanisms. CYDRES consists of five key modules: a multi-layer network analyzer, an Automatic Fault Detection, Diagnosis, and Prognosis (AFDDP) framework, an intelligent mode selector, a cyber-resilient control framework, and a situation awareness platform. The Network Analyzer employs a data-driven framework that includes a protocol state learning tool and a CRF (Conditional Random Field) command validator. In Hardware-In-the-Loop (HIL) testbeds, it achieved 100% detection accuracy with a false alarm rate of 3%, validating its efficacy in identifying selected cyber-attacks. The AFDDP framework leverages pattern matching, PCA (Principal Component Analysis)-based strategies, and a DBN (Dynamic Bayesian Network)-based fault diagnosis approach to pinpoint the causes of physical system abnormalities using Building Automation System (BAS) data. In HIL experiments, the AFDDP module attained a detection accuracy of over 95% with a false alarm rate below 7%. Additionally, the fault detector utilized machine learning (Random Forest) and deep learning (Multi-Layer Perceptron) methods with acoustic sensor data to achieve a 100% fault detection accuracy in Heating, Ventilation, and Air-Conditioning (HVAC) equipment. The Mode Selector offered real-time impact analysis, allowing immediate actions to protect BASs in the face of emerging threats. The cyber-resilient control framework included an adaptive Model Predictive Control (MPC) and a measurement compensator, reducing temperature violations by up to 94% and improving the total demand flexibility by up to 70% in HIL experiments. Such HIL experiments covered a cyber-attack case and a physical fault case, showcasing CYDRES’ efficiency in maintaining operational continuity during threats. The situation awareness platform in Grafana enhanced real-time threat detection and response visualization, augmenting the operational awareness for building operators. CYDRES demonstrated high technical effectiveness in various test scenarios, particularly in HIL environments. The project's phased development approach ensured efficient use of resources, highlighting its practical feasibility and readiness for commercialization. By enhancing the security and resilience of building operations, CYDRES represents a significant advance in mitigating risks associated with cyber-physical systems, thereby enhancing public confidence in the safety of modern building infrastructure. Future directions for the project include expanding testing protocols, refining AFDDP methodologies, exploring more comprehensive resilient control strategies, and testing in real commercial buildings.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Protecting building occupants against the inhalation of outdoor-origin aerosols

During normal operations, buildings can protect their occupants from outdoor airborne particle hazards of all types, including airborne pollutants. A long-term international research effort has advanced our knowledge of building protection physics. Recently we have developed an operationally efficient, regional-scale methodology - Regional Shelter Analysis - to account for both building protection effects and the typical distribution of people in and among buildings. To provide input to this capability, we estimate here the degree of protection afforded by the currently existing US building stock. Here, we first assemble and summarize the published literature relevant to indoor particle losses including (a) deposition to indoor surfaces, (b) losses that occur when particles penetrate through the building envelope, and (c) heating, ventilation and air conditioning (HVAC) system filtration efficiencies as well as general building operating conditions. Building protection against inhaling particulate hazards varies strongly, by orders of magnitude, according to particle size, airborne particle loss rate, and to a lesser extent building use (occupancy). Protection increases modestly as particle size increases from 0.1 to 1 μm and significantly as particle size increases from 1 to 10 μm. Model results are placed in context with previously reported measurements. Suggestions for future work, including enhanced validation datasets are provided.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗

A Safe Response to Renewable Energy Hazards

The International Association of Fire Fighters (IAFF) and Underwriters Laboratories, LLC (UL) in conjunction with UL Solutions initiated a joint project in 2022 under an agreement with the United States Department of Energy-Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (DOE-EERE). This project focused on two separate and important initiatives related to energy efficiency in residential buildings. Initiative 1: Fire Performance on Energy Efficient Exterior Walls. Initiative 2: Firefighting Tactics in Residential Properties with Building Energy Storage Systems (BESS). The project’s first initiative addresses concerns surrounding new technologies with enhanced, energy-efficient exterior walls installed on residential properties. The concerns of fire rapidly traveling vertically up the exterior of these walls were examined. This addressed a growing concern from the first responder community that many times, the fires on the exterior of residential buildings have already evolved into an attic fire by the time of arrival – making it problematic to address the fire scenario. The test plan for Initiative 1 incorporated a modified version of an American Society for Testing and Materials (ASTM) test method, ASTM E2707, Standard Test Method for Determining Fire Penetration of Exterior Wall Assemblies Using a Direct Flame Impingement Exposure, as the foundation of the research. The test method involved a wall structure intended to represent retrofit construction to evaluate how fire would spread vertically or laterally. The second aspect of the UL-IAFF Project focuses on the fire service response to Residential Battery Energy Storage System (RBESS) incidents. These simulation tests were constructed in the large-scale fire test facility at UL Solutions’ Northbrook, IL campus. A baseline test was conducted that involved a test structure with no batteries—shelving units populated with standardized commodities, representing a typical garage with cellulosic and plastic contents. Three additional tests have been conducted to generate data with the contribution of energy storage system (ESS) batteries to compare fire and explosion hazards against the baseline test. Through this work, fire service tactical considerations can be explored. From the data, the team can determine 1) the visual indicators of a residential fire that has involved an RBESS (or, potentially, other large batteries) and 2) the impact of fire service-initiated ventilation of the structure on the fire conditions and explosion risks.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Grey-box and ANN-based building models for multistep-ahead prediction of indoor temperature to implement model predictive control

Model-based predictive control (MPC) strategies for heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems present an opportunity to lower building energy consumption and operational costs. Such approaches rely on the development of a model to precisely forecast building thermal dynamics, such as room air temperature or heating/cooling rate, and make control-related decisions. The control-oriented modeling of building energy systems should be accurate in predicting indoor conditions and present low computational complexity. These features are the key challenge of implementing advanced control methods such as MPC. Extant studies on building modeling for MPC have focused on step-ahead forecasting techniques to forecast building thermal dynamics, while multistep-ahead forecasting is essential. Moreover, machine learning model suitable in case of the domain-based engineering expertise are also not available. To this aim, we perform a comparative analysis of the grey-box model based on a resistance-capacitance (RC) thermal network and a machine learning model composed of an artificial neural network (ANN) for multistep-ahead prediction of building thermal dynamics using current and historical data. Actual experimental data obtained from the Flexible Research Platform (FRP) in Oak Ridge National Laboratory (US) are used for estimation and validation purposes. The average root mean squared error (RMSE) of the grey-box and ANN models are 0.89 °C and 1.02°C, respectively. Finally, the results indicate that the grey-box model outperforms the ANN model in the considered validation periods in terms of accuracy and prediction stability.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Thermal Conductivity of a Novel Salt-Hydrogel Complex as a Phase Change Material for Building Thermal Management

Use of electricity for space heating, ventilation and air conditioning in buildings may be better managed through temporary energy storage. Compared with electrochemical storage, the levelized cost of thermal energy storage systems can be lower depending on geographical location and thermophysical properties [1]. In any phase change material (PCM), the rate of absorption and release of thermal energy increases with higher thermal conductivity [2]. However, leading PCMs like paraffin waxes have thermal conductivities on the order of 0.1 W/mK. Glauber’s salt, a salt hydrate, possesses a relatively high thermal conductivity but suffers from supercooling and phase segregation. Research has shown that polymer-based composites with salt hydrates can prevent phase segregation and limit supercooling over hundreds of cycles [3] though the thermal conductivity of the composite may be reduced leading to low energy storage rates. Here, we report thermal conductivity measurements on polymer hydrogels which are stable in solutions of Glauber’s salt. To measure thermal conductivity of soft gels, we use a 3-omega method [4] where heat flows bidirectionally through a substrate below and through a gel placed on top. This suits measurements of both gels and liquids unlike transient plane heat source or transient hot wire methods. We report measurements of thermal conductivity of salt-hydrogel complexes as a function of temperature, cross-linking and salt concentration. In addition, we present modeling of thermal conductivity of sodium sulfate solutions with available theories. We finally employ polarized optical microscopy to observe inside the transparent hydrogel networks, showing that precipitating crystals may influence thermal conductivity measurements for high salt concentrations. Our thermal conductivity results combined with enthalpy of phase change, mass density and specific heat are essential to accurately design thermal storage systems for energy-efficient buildings.

composite, thermal conductivity↗