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At least 73 records · Page 4

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties During the M-PACE Field Campaign

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly-continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This Arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at Arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This dataset provides a set of 25 samples from the M-PACE field campaign, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this dataset include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this dataset as well. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this dataset are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Methods to Evaluate Subcolumn Profiles Based on Two-Point Diagnostics

In atmospheric models, stochastic generation of subgrid-scale profiles or “subcolumns” has been used for a variety of purposes. Such subcolumns can be generated from subgrid probability density functions (PDFs) at different vertical levels, when such PDFs are available. To do so, the generator needs to decide how strongly points should be correlated in the vertical, that is, how much the values should be overlapped. This is sometimes called “PDF overlap.” To assess vertical correlation in a simplified, observable setting, here the vertical correlation of vertical velocity in subcloud layers is examined. Doppler lidar is used to evaluate the vertical profiles of vertical velocity produced by a large-eddy simulation (LES) model and the Subgrid Importance Latin Hypercube Sampler (SILHS) subcolumn generator. In order to diagnose unrealistic features in subcolumn profiles, various statistical diagnostics are examined here, including the bivariate PDF of vertical velocity at two separated points (i.e., altitudes), the two-point velocity correlation, the integral correlation length, the PDF of two-point velocity differences, and the skewness and kurtosis of two-point velocity differences. The profiles produced by LES match lidar well, except that they are too smooth at small scales. The profiles produced by SILHS exhibit sharp jumps from updraft to downdraft that are not observed in the lidar data. To reduce the generation of these unrealistically sharp jumps, the SILHS sampling method is revised. The diagnostics confirm that the revised sampling method reduces the overprediction of sharp jumps.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Arctic Mixed-Phase Cloud Base Ice Precipitation Properties Over the NSA Site

Cloud-climate feedbacks are still the greatest source of uncertainty in current climate projections. Arctic clouds, which are predominantly stratiform and supercooled, often long-lived, and nearly continuously precipitate ice particles, contribute roughly 10% of the uncertainty attributed to the global cloud feedback. This arctic cloud uncertainty is driven by incomplete observational and theoretical knowledge required to estimate and explain the state and active processes occurring in those clouds. A focus on ice precipitation properties at arctic cloud base rather than the surface deconfounds the product of cloud condensate sink processes from the influence of the atmospheric thermodynamic state below cloud base, rendering cloud-base properties a more appealing target for inference and evaluation of model simulations. This data set provides more than 1800 samples of cloud-base ice precipitation properties over Utqiagvik, North Slope of Alaska, all of which were retrieved using the synthesis of ARM radar and lidar measurements. The retrieved ice precipitation variables in this data set include, among others, the ice number concentration, water content, PSD parameters, precipitation rate, mass-weighted fall velocity, vertical air motion, and effective radius, all of which are highly valuable for model evaluation and a general understanding of polar cloud sink processes. Each variable sample includes its mean value and associated uncertainty. Additional variables based on ARM measurements (liquid layer statistics, etc.) are included in this data set. The retrieval algorithm and analysis of this data set are described in Silber (JGR, 2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022JD038202).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Comparison of interlaminar damage modeling strategies for hybrid composite/aluminum laminates subjected to low-velocity impact

Low-velocity impact of hybrid metal-composite structures was investigated experimentally and computationally. Composite laminates consisting of 2D woven glass fiber reinforced polymer (GFRP) and carbon fiber reinforced polymer (CFRP) were joined with a 6061-T6 aluminum plate using an epoxy adhesive. Two variations of the structure were studied; one consisting of all plies oriented at 0° and one consisting of all plies oriented at 45°. A drop tower was used to impact structures at a range of energies, including energies above and below the threshold at which the aluminum layer was perforated. Numerical simulations were implemented using Sierra/SM, an in-house transient dynamics finite element code developed at Sandia National Laboratories. A Hosford plasticity model was used to describe the response of the aluminum layer. A newly implemented orthotropic continuum damage mechanics (CDM) constitutive model was used to represent the composite laminate. This 3D-CDM model was compared to a cohesive zone model (2D-CDM/CZM) to investigate efficacy of aluminum perforation energy prediction, delamination prediction, and computational cost. Accuracy of each model was evaluated using the experimental results. Each showed good agreement with the tests for both the force and velocity histories, as well as the observed damage mechanisms. The 2D-CDM/CZM model was marginally more accurate in capturing both the composite and aluminum behavior — this model averaged error percentages of -11.2% and 10.8% for residual velocity and peak force, respectively. Meanwhile, the 3D-CDM model predictions yielded average error percentages of -35.5% (velocity) and 22.6% (force). However, the 3D-CDM model generally resulted in a decreased computational cost; the average run time was 14% shorter than the 2D-CDM/CZM model and 3x as many timesteps per hour were computed using the same computational resources. In conclusion, new experimental data on the impact and perforation resistance of metal-composite laminates is presented in addition to numerical predictions of the impact behavior.

Carbon fiber↗

Conductivity of a two-dimensional guiding center plasma.

The Kubo method is used to calculate the electrical conductivity of a two-dimensional, strongly magnetized plasma. The particles interact through (logarithmic) electrostatic potentials and move with their guiding center drift velocities (Taylor-McNamara model). The thermal equilibrium dc conductivity can be evaluated analytically, but the ac conductivity involves numerical solution of a differential equation. Both conductivities fall off as the inverse first power of the magnetic field strength.

Montgomery, D.↗

Small Body Hopper Mobility Concepts

A propellant-saving hopper mobility system was studied that could help facilitate the exploration of small bodies such as Phobos for long-duration human missions. The NASA Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) has proposed a mission to the moons of Mars as a transitional step for eventual Mars surface exploration. While a Mars transit habitat would be parked in High-Mars Orbit (HMO), crew members would visit the surface of Phobos multiple times for up to 14 days duration (up to 50 days at a time with logistics support). This paper describes a small body surface mobility concept that is capable of transporting a small, two-person Pressurized Exploration Vehicle (PEV) cabin to various sites of interest in the low-gravity environment. Using stored kinetic energy between bounces, a propellant-saving hopper mobility system can release the energy to vector the vehicle away from the surface in a specified direction. Alternatively, the stored energy can be retained for later use while the vehicle is stationary in respect to the surface. The hopper actuation was modeled using a variety of launch velocities, and the hopper mobility was evaluated using NASA Exploration Systems Simulations (NExSyS) for transit between surface sites of interest. A hopper system with linear electromagnetic motors and mechanical spring actuators coupled with Control Moment Gyroscope (CMG) for attitude control will use renewable electrical power, resulting in a significant propellant savings.

Phobos↗

Semi-implicit continuum kinetic modeling of weakly collisional parallel transport in a magnetic mirror

We present implicit-explicit (IMEX) kinetic simulations of weakly collisional parallel plasma transport in magnetic mirror configurations using the continuum code COGENT. The numerical scheme employs a Jacobian-free Newton–Krylov method with algebraic multigrid preconditioning to overcome the severe time step limitations imposed by strong mirror forces in fully explicit schemes. Applied to parameters relevant to the Wisconsin HTS Axisymmetric Mirror experiment, the IMEX approach enables time steps up to 2.5×10 4 times larger than those permitted by explicit methods, resulting in a 2500× speedup in 1D–2V simulations of parallel transport with kinetic ions and Boltzmann electrons. Additionally, a reduced bounce-averaged model for a square mirror is implemented to support the computationally intensive fully kinetic simulations. The bounce-averaged formulation is used to evaluate the numerical convergence of the velocity-space discretization algorithms and to assess the role of the collision model by comparing simulations employing the nonlinear Fokker–Planck and the simplified Lenard–Bernstein–Dougherty collision operators.

Collision theories↗

Qualification of Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 325 Building Stack Revision

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 325 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The four (4) existing main facility exhaust fans are past the end of their useful life. The fans are being replaced to provide additional exhaust capacity for future growth and to provide a more robust system. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified four-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2021 standard, which essentially is equivalent in mixing requirements to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard (and ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011). The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. In addition to the evaluating the modified four-fan system a temporary single fan stack configuration was also evaluated with CFD modeling. The temporary stack is planned to be used while the four-fan system is being modified. Modeling of the modified four-fan design and temporary ductwork showed that flow angles, velocity uniformity, gas tracer, and particle tracer were acceptable.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Gaussian FLOWERS: Wind-rose-based analytical integration of Gaussian wake model for extremely fast AEP estimation

A major cost in the study of wind farm layout optimization is the repeated evaluation of the annual energy production (AEP). The current approach to estimating AEP requires a large set of flow simulations to be performed that cover each discrete wind speed and direction combination contained within the wind rose, followed by a probability-weighted sum of the power production resulting from each simulation. Even with inexpensive engineering wake models, this numerical integration scheme can lead to high computational costs. In this paper, we derive an analytical formulation for estimating farm AEP across every wind direction, based on a Gaussian wake velocity model, which reduces the number of wind farm simulations to a single function evaluation. As a result, we find that the Gaussian-FLOWERS approach reduces the time for AEP calculations by more than two orders of magnitude with a small trade-off in accuracy when compared to a conventional approach. This massive reduction in computation cost is useful to reduce overall costs in wind farm layout optimization studies.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Evaluation of Turbulence-Model Performance as Applied to Jet-Noise Prediction

The accurate prediction of jet noise is possible only if the jet flow field can be predicted accurately. Predictions for the mean velocity and turbulence quantities in the jet flowfield are typically the product of a Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes solver coupled with a turbulence model. To evaluate the effectiveness of solvers and turbulence models in predicting those quantities most important to jet noise prediction, two CFD codes and several turbulence models were applied to a jet configuration over a range of jet temperatures for which experimental data is available.

Woodruff, S. L.↗

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 3430 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The updated system will increase the number of fans from two to three and include new ductwork with a larger diameter to integrate the new fan into the existing stack. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing two-fan stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified three-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard, which essentially is equivalent to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. Benchmarking of the CFD modeling methodology showed good agreement with previous testing used to qualify the stack, and modeling of the existing two-fan system showed good agreement with test data collected from the 3430 Building stack. Modeling was performed to develop a suitable three-fan design. Initial modeling of the three-fan design and basic ductwork showed that flow angles and velocity uniformity were acceptable; however, the gas tracer and particle tracer mixing results were not acceptable. To meet ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria, an air blender was added to the stack design.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Qualification of ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 Mixing Criteria by Computational Fluid Dynamics Modeling for the 3430 Building Fan Addition and Increased Ventilation Capacity

Additional ventilation capacity has been designed for the 3430 Building filtered exhaust stack system. The updated system will increase the number of fans from two to three and include new ductwork with a larger diameter to integrate the new fan into the existing stack. Stack operations will involve running various fan combinations at any given time. The air monitoring system of the existing two-fan stack previously was found to comply with the American National Standards Institute/Health Physics Society (ANSI/HPS) N13.1-1999 standard. Full-scale, three-dimensional computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling was used to evaluate the modified three-fan system for compliance with the ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 standard, which essentially is equivalent to the ANSI/HPS N13.1-1999 standard. The four mixing criteria evaluated are 1) flow angle, 2) velocity, 3) gas tracer, and 4) particle tracer. Benchmarking of the CFD modeling methodology showed good agreement with previous testing used to qualify the stack, and modeling of the existing two-fan system showed good agreement with test data collected from the 3430 Building stack. Modeling was performed to develop a suitable three-fan design. Initial modeling of the three-fan design and basic ductwork showed that flow angles and velocity uniformity were acceptable; however, the gas tracer and particle tracer mixing results were not acceptable. To meet ANSI/HPS N13.1-2011 criteria, an air blender was added to the stack design. This revision models the individual maximum fan reduced flow capacity from 38,000 cfm to 31,200 cfm; no changes to the duct design are made.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Convective and Turbulent Motions in Nonprecipitating Cu. Part II: LES Simulated Cloud Represented by a Starting Plume

The dynamic structure of a small trade wind cumulus (Cu) is analyzed using a novel approach. Cu developing in a shear-free environment is simulated by 10-m-resolution LES model with spectral bin microphysics. The aim is to clarify the dynamical nature of cloud updraft zone (CUZ) including entrainment and mixing in growing Cu. The validity of concept stating that a cloud at developing state can be represented by a parcel or a jet is tested. To investigate dynamical entrainment in CUZ performed by motions with scales larger than the turbulence scales, the modeled fields of air velocity were filtered by wavelet filter that separated convective motions from turbulent ones. Two types of objects in developing cloud were investigated: small volume ascending at maximal velocity (point parcel) and CUZ. It was found that the point parcel representing the upper part of cloud core is adiabatic. The motion of the air in this parcel ascending from cloud base determines cloud-top height. The top-hat (i.e., averaged) values of updraft velocity and adiabatic fraction in CUZ are substantially lower than those in the point parcel. Evaluation of the terms in the dynamical equation typically used in 1D cloud parcel models show that this equation can be applied for calculation of vertical velocities at the developing stage of small Cu, at least up to the heights of the inversion layer. Dynamically, the CUZ of developing cloud resembles the starting plume with the tail of nonstationary jet. Both the top-hat vertical velocity and buoyancy acceleration linearly increase with the height, at least up to the inversion layer. An important finding is that lateral entrainment of convective (nonturbulent) nature has a little effect on the top-hat CUZ velocity and cannot explain the vertical changes of conservative variables qt and θl. In contrast, entrained air lifting inside CUZ substantially decreases top-hat liquid water content and its adiabatic fraction. Possible reasons of these effects are discussed.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluating the Trustworthiness of Explainable Artificial Intelligence (XAI) Methods Applied to Regression Predictions of Arctic Sea Ice Motion

Abstract Recent advances in explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) methods show promise for understanding predictions made by machine learning (ML) models. XAI explains how the input features are relevant or important for the model predictions. We train linear regression (LR) and convolutional neural network (CNN) models to make 1-day predictions of sea ice velocity in the Arctic from inputs of present-day wind velocity and previous-day ice velocity and concentration. We apply XAI methods to the CNN and compare explanations to variance explained by LR. We confirm the feasibility of using a novel XAI method [i.e., global layerwise relevance propagation (LRP)] to understand ML model predictions of sea ice motion by comparing it to established techniques. We investigate a suite of linear, perturbation-based, and propagation-based XAI methods in both local and global forms. Outputs from different explainability methods are generally consistent in showing that wind speed is the input feature with the highest contribution to ML predictions of ice motion, and we discuss inconsistencies in the spatial variability of the explanations. Additionally, we show that the CNN relies on both linear and nonlinear relationships between the inputs and uses nonlocal information to make predictions. LRP shows that wind speed over land is highly relevant for predicting ice motion offshore. This provides a framework to show how knowledge of environmental variables (i.e., wind) on land could be useful for predicting other properties (i.e., sea ice velocity) elsewhere. Significance Statement Explainable artificial intelligence (XAI) is useful for understanding predictions made by machine learning models. Our research establishes trustability in a novel implementation of an explainable AI method known as layerwise relevance propagation for Earth science applications. To do this, we provide a comparative evaluation of a suite of explainable AI methods applied to machine learning models that make 1-day predictions of Arctic sea ice velocity. We use explainable AI outputs to understand how the input features are used by the machine learning to predict ice motion. Additionally, we show that a convolutional neural network uses nonlinear and nonlocal information in making its predictions. We take advantage of the nonlocality to investigate the extent to which knowledge of wind on land is useful for predicting sea ice velocity elsewhere.

Hoffman, Lauren [Scripps Institution of Oceanograp↗

Numerical modeling of hydrogen mixing in a direct-injection engine fueled with gaseous hydrogen

Hydrogen is considered as one of the most promising options to achieve effective decarbonization of the energy and transportation sectors. As such, it has recently been receiving increasing attention because of its promising potential as an energy carrier for advanced energy and propulsion systems. With a focus on internal combustion engines, direct injection (DI) of gaseous hydrogen during the compression stroke offers great potential for high engine efficiency and specific power while reducing the risk of backfiring and pre-ignition issues. Therefore, many experimental and numerical efforts have recently been dedicated to understanding the physical and chemical behaviors of hydrogen in engine during mixing and combustion. This study focuses on computational fluid dynamics (CFD) modeling of the hydrogen DI process in a hydrogen optical research engine. Under the conditions studied, gaseous hydrogen is injected into the combustion chamber via a centrally located single-hole injector at a pressure of 100 bar. Two configurations, namely low-and high-tumble, are investigated to understand the impact of different in-cylinder flow patterns on the fuel-air mixture preparation. Simulations are carried out using the commercial CFD software CONVERGE. Here, the in-cylinder turbulence is modeled with an unsteady Reynolds-averaged Navier-Stokes (URANS) formulation closed by the renormalization group (RNG) k-ε model. Several numerical methods and model constants, including but not limited to turbulent Schmidt number, are evaluated. The numerical results are systematically compared against experimental measurements of velocity and hydrogen concentration fields on the vertical center plane to assess the performance of the CFD model, unveil the physics of hydrogen mixing, and establish best practices for modeling hydrogen DI under relatively high injection pressure conditions.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Estimating source-sink distributions and fluxes of reactive nitrogen and sulfur within a mixed forest canopy

The vertical source-sink distribution of air pollutants within and above forested canopies is necessary for describing the biological, physical, and chemical processes influencing the soil-vegetation-atmosphere exchange. Here, this study implemented inverse modeling methods to estimate the source-sink and flux profiles of reactive nitrogen (N) and sulfur (S) compounds from measurements of the mean concentration profiles of ammonia (NH 3 ), nitric acid (HNO 3 ), sulfur dioxide (SO 2 ), and particulate ammonium (NH 4 + ), nitrate (NO 3 − ), and sulfate (SO 4 2− ) at a forest site in the southern Appalachian Mountains. Three inverse approaches utilizing different approximations to scalar transport within the canopy were developed and evaluated against sensible heat flux measurements. The Eulerian model (EUL), which incorporates vertical velocity skewness, performed well in reproducing the turbulent heat fluxes and was subsequently used to calculate the chemical source-sink and flux profiles. Above-canopy fluxes of NH 3 were downward, indicating that the forest was a net sink of NH 3 . The soil/litter layer was both a source and a sink for NH 3 but the exchange rate at the forest floor was small. Fluxes of HNO 3 , SO 2 , NO 3 − , NH 4 + , and SO 4 2- were uni-directional (deposition only) between the air and the canopy/ground and increased monotonically from the forest floor to the canopy top. Crown foliage dominated the uptake of reactive N and S during the growing season, accounting for 80–90% of the total canopy-scale flux. Fluxes and canopy-ground partitioning estimated using the resistance-based Surface Tiled Aerosol and Gas Exchange (STAGE) model were generally comparable to EUL. The comparison highlights the need for improved parameterizations of litter exchange and NH 3 compensation points in resistance models for forest ecosystems. The findings here benefit the application of critical loads in forest ecosystems and guide further development of resistance-based exchange models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Evaluation of Tritium Behavior in Forest Vegetation for the Purpose of Determining Appropriate Non-Zero Deposition Velocities for Tritium Oxide

Modeling and field measurements have been conducted between 2019 and 2021 to assess the practicality of using a non-zero deposition velocity for safety basis estimates of tritium oxide fate and transport modeling. A model was developed which used a complex deposition algorithm designed to assess how tritium oxide would mix based on the turbulent motions and wind speed effects that the forest canopy has on the atmosphere. The model was driven based on measurements of wind and turbulence taken from the Aiken AmeriFlux Tower which measures these properties at five levels located within and just above the forest. The model was then validated against a series of field experiments which were designed to test the model predictions and estimate the deposition velocity occurring over the forest environment at the Savannah River Site. The field releases used deuterium oxide as a surrogate for tritium oxide and was released as a fine mist which rapidly evaporated, creating a gaseous tracer in the atmosphere. Using air samplers, the elevations in deuterium concentration in the air relative to background measurements was assessed and then modeled. Generally, the numerical model tended to underpredict the amount of deuterium being mixed from above the canopy to the forest floor, indicating that the predictions it provides are still conservative relative to what was measured during the field experiments. Across a suite of modeling runs, the 95 th and 99 th percentile deposition velocities were estimated to be 1.2 and 0.7 cm s -1 , respectively. Estimated deposition velocities in the 2021 field experiments, which specifically assessed a release above the forest canopy and its mixing to the surface, predicted deposition velocities ranging from 1.75 to 6.61 cm s -1 . While these field releases do not cover all possible meteorological conditions, it seems appropriate to use a non-zero deposition velocity when performing safety-basis modeling of tritium oxide. The recommendation presented in this report is to use 1.0 cm s -1 . This is between the 95 th and 99 th percentile value estimated from the modeling study, suggesting it should be appropriate for the majority of release scenarios given the model’s apparent conservatism relative to field measurements.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Developing and Testing a Novel Stochastic Ice Microphysics Parameterization for Cloud and Climate Models Using ARM Field Campaign Data (Final Progress Report)

The major goals of this project were: 1) to use field campaign measurements from DOE’s Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) program to characterize variability of important parameters describing properties of ice particles in the atmosphere; 2) based on this observational analysis, to develop a parameterization scheme for weather and climate models that stochastically varies these parameters, and implement the new scheme into a weather model called the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF); 3) to use WRF coupled with the new stochastic scheme to simulate ARM field campaign thunderstorm cases and analyze how accounting for this parameter variability affects the model simulations. This work was performed jointly between the National Center for Atmospheric Research, University of Oklahoma, and University of Utah. To accomplish these goals, we extended an approach previously developed to characterize the variability in the size distribution of ice particles to parameters that are explicitly represented in models (i.e., relationships between ice particle mass and size, and between particle fall velocity and size). Our project was, to our knowledge, the first to apply observationally-constrained estimates of this parameter variability describing mass-size and fall velocity-size in a modeling framework. Our results showed efficacy of the approach, evaluated using ARM observations. Similarly, to our knowledge, work in this project was the first to propose and evaluate in detail a stochastic approach for unresolved turbulent mixing in high-resolution model simulations against detailed, benchmark large eddy simulations and ARM observations. Results showed some promising behavior, particularly with increased mixing and dilution of air in thunderstorm cores with surrounding environmental air, bringing the stochastic simulations closer to the benchmark large eddy simulations; however, results were somewhat degraded using stochastic mixing compared to observations from the AMIE/DYNAMO field campaign. This project also further refined and applied a modeling methodology called “piggybacking” that can robustly separate dynamical and thermodynamic impacts of model changes, and comparison studies of different models based on cases developed from ARM observations. Finally, this project directly supported three graduate students who completed their PhDs as well as a postdoctoral research fellow.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗