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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2000

Systems Engineering Programmatic Estimation Using Technology Variance

Unique and innovative system programmatic estimation is conducted using the variance of the packaged technologies. Covariance analysis is performed oil the subsystems and components comprising the system of interest. Technological "returns" and "variation" parameters, are estimated. These parameters are combined with the model error to arrive at a measure of system development stability. The resulting estimates provide valuable information concerning the potential cost growth of the system under development.

Mog, Robert A.↗
NASA NTRS1978

On least squares collocation

It is shown that the least squares collocation approach to estimating geodetic parameters is identical to conventional minimum variance estimation. Hence, the least squares collocation estimator can be derived either by minimizing the usual least squares quadratic loss function or by computing a conditional expectation by means of the regression equation. When a deterministic functional relationship between the data and the parameters to be estimated is available, one can implement a least squares solution using the functional relation to obtain an equation of condition. It is proved the solution so obtained is identical to what is obtained through least squares collocation. The implications of this equivalance for the estimation of mean gravity anomalies are discussed.

Argentiero, P. D.↗
NASA NTRS1975

M-071 critical data analysis

A prototype balance study was conducted on earth prior to the balance studies conducted in Skylab itself. Collected were daily dietary intake data of 6 minerals and nitrogen, and fecal and urinary outputs on each of three astronauts. Essential statistical issues show what quantities need to be estimated and establish the scope of inference associated with alternative variance estimates. The procedures for obtaining the final variability due both to errors of measurement and total error (total = measurement and biological variability) are exhibited.

Hegsted, D. M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

A simulation study of Large Area Crop Inventory Experiment (LACIE) technology

The author has identified the following significant results. The LACIE performance predictor (LPP) was used to replicate LACIE phase 2 for a 15 year period, using accuracy assessment results for phase 2 error components. Results indicated that the (LPP) simulated the LACIE phase 2 procedures reasonably well. For the 15 year simulation, only 7 of the 15 production estimates were within 10 percent of the true production. The simulations indicated that the acreage estimator, based on CAMS phase 2 procedures, has a negative bias. This bias was too large to support the 90/90 criterion with the CV observed and simulated for the phase 2 production estimator. Results of this simulation study validate the theory that the acreage variance estimator in LACIE was conservative.

Ziegler, L.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Future mission studies: Preliminary comparisons of solar flux models

The results of comparisons of the solar flux models are presented. (The wavelength lambda = 10.7 cm radio flux is the best indicator of the strength of the ionizing radiations such as solar ultraviolet and x-ray emissions that directly affect the atmospheric density thereby changing the orbit lifetime of satellites. Thus, accurate forecasting of solar flux F sub 10.7 is crucial for orbit determination of spacecrafts.) The measured solar flux recorded by National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) is compared against the forecasts made by Schatten, MSFC, and NOAA itself. The possibility of a combined linear, unbiased minimum-variance estimation that properly combines all three models into one that minimizes the variance is also discussed. All the physics inherent in each model are combined. This is considered to be the dead-end statistical approach to solar flux forecasting before any nonlinear chaotic approach.

Ashrafi, S.↗
NASA NTRS2018

The Convergence of Analysis Produced by Overlapping Assimilation Streams

When conducting a reanalysis for a long period, it is common to do so using multiple, parallel computational schemes. A period of overlap is included to foster continuity between successive streams. At the GMAO, the overlap period is one year. By the end of that period, the time mean anlysis for corresponding overlapped months are almost identical, as desired. The variances of differences at corresponding analysis times within each month, however, do not converge to zero. Instead their monthly variances converge to values that are a significant fraction of the the estimated variances of analysis errors. This occurs although the overlapping streams use the same observations, assimilation model, and assimilation algorithm, differing only in the background applied information applied at the beginning of the overlap period.

Errico, Ronald M.↗
NASA NTRS1979

Weighted aggregation

The use of a weighted aggregation technique to improve the precision of the overall LACIE estimate is considered. The manner in which a weighted aggregation technique is implemented given a set of weights is described. The problem of variance estimation is discussed and the question of how to obtain the weights in an operational environment is addressed.

Feiveson, A. H.↗
NASA NTRS1973

Radar satellite altimetry and ocean wave height estimation

The design of a radar satellite altimeter having a plus or minus 10 cm topographic resolution at 20 meter (peak-to-trough) ocean wave heights is described. In addition to altimetry, the resulting design also provides a measurement of significant wave height over the range of 1.0 to 20 meters to within plus or minus 10%. A full deramp pulse compression technique followed by an analog filter bank to separate individual range returns is used in the radar transmitter/receiver design to reduce the A/D converter bandwidth from a rather impractical 330 MHz to less than 1 MHz. The altimeter design utilizes an onboard maximum likelihood estimate (MLE) processor to achieve the plus or minus 10 cm topographic resolution. It is shown that an MLE processor provides simultaneous optimum (minimum variance) estimates of satellite altitude, ocean wave height and electromagnetic ocean surface reflectivity.

Dooley, R. P.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Effects of autocorrelation upon LANDSAT classification accuracy

Richmond, Virginia and Denver, Colorado were study sites in an effort to determine the effect of autocorrelation on the accuracy of a parallelopiped classifier of LANDSAT digital data. The autocorrelation was assumed to decay to insignificant levels when sampled at distances of at least ten pixels. Spectral themes developed using blocks of adjacent pixels, and using groups of pixels spaced at least 10 pixels apart were used. Effects of geometric distortions were minimized by using only pixels from the interiors of land cover sections. Accuracy was evaluated for three classes; agriculture, residential and "all other"; both type 1 and type 2 errors were evaluated by means of overall classification accuracy. All classes give comparable results. Accuracy is approximately the same in both techniques; however, the variance in accuracy is significantly higher using the themes developed from autocorrelated data. The vectors of mean spectral response were nearly identical regardless of sampling method used. The estimated variances were much larger when using autocorrelated pixels.

Craig, R. G.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Reducing Errors In Processing GPS Measurements

Paper presents analyses of techniques for minimization of errors in estimates based on Global Positioning System measurements at multiple locations. Presents fully-redundant double-differencing algorithm for generation of weighted, double-differenced regression system that yields minimum-variance estimates. Addresses two complications arisen in previous double-differencing approaches, namely: Rank-deficient double differencing, and nondiagonal covariance matrix.

Melbourne, W. G.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Foreground-immune CMB lensing reconstruction with polarization

Extragalactic foregrounds are known to generate significant biases in temperature based CMB lensing reconstruction. Several techniques, which include "source hardening'" and "shear-only estimators'' have been proposed to mitigate contamination and have been shown to be very effective at reducing foreground-induced biases. Here we extend both techniques to polarization, which will be an essential component of CMB lensing reconstruction for future experiments and investigate the "large lens'' limit analytically to gain insight on the origin and scaling of foreground biases, as well as the sensitivity to their profiles. Furthermore, using simulations of polarized point sources, we estimate the expected bias to both Simons Observatory and CMB-S4 like (polarization-based) lensing reconstruction, finding that biases to the former are minuscule while those to the latter are potentially non-negligible at small scales ($L$ ~ $1000-2000$). In particular, we show that for a CMB-S4 like experiment, an optimal linear combination of point-source hardened estimators can reduce the (point-source induced) bias to the CMB lensing power spectrum by up to two orders of magnitude, at a ~ 4% noise cost relative to the global minimum variance estimator.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2003

Combining Multiple Gyroscope Outputs for Increased Accuracy

A proposed method of processing the outputs of multiple gyroscopes to increase the accuracy of rate (that is, angular-velocity) readings has been developed theoretically and demonstrated by computer simulation. Although the method is applicable, in principle, to any gyroscopes, it is intended especially for application to gyroscopes that are parts of microelectromechanical systems (MEMS). The method is based on the concept that the collective performance of multiple, relatively inexpensive, nominally identical devices can be better than that of one of the devices considered by itself. The method would make it possible to synthesize the readings of a single, more accurate gyroscope (a virtual gyroscope) from the outputs of a large number of microscopic gyroscopes fabricated together on a single MEMS chip. The big advantage would be that the combination of the MEMS gyroscope array and the processing circuitry needed to implement the method would be smaller, lighter in weight, and less power-hungry, relative to a conventional gyroscope of equal accuracy. The method (see figure) is one of combining and filtering the digitized outputs of multiple gyroscopes to obtain minimum-variance estimates of rate. In the combining-and-filtering operations, measurement data from the gyroscopes would be weighted and smoothed with respect to each other according to the gain matrix of a minimum- variance filter. According to Kalman-filter theory, the gain matrix of the minimum-variance filter is uniquely specified by the filter covariance, which propagates according to a matrix Riccati equation. The present method incorporates an exact analytical solution of this equation.

Bayard, David S.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A theorem of equivalence on the methods of least-squares estimation

A theorem on the methods of least-squares estimation is stated and proved. This theorem enables the replacement of a system of correlated measurements by an equivalent system of uncorrelated measurements without a whitening process, thus simplifying the analysis while resulting in the same minimum-variance estimate.

Wu, S.-C.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Future projections and uncertainty assessment of precipitation extremes in the Korean peninsula from the CMIP5 ensemble

Abstract Projections of changes in extreme climate are sometimes predicted by multimodel ensemble methods that combine forecasts from individual simulation models using weighted averaging. One method to assign weight to each model is the Bayesian model averaging (BMA) in which posterior probability is used. For the cases of extreme climate, the generalized extreme value distribution (GEVD) is typically used. We applied the approach of GEV‐embedded BMA to a series of 35 years of the annual maximum daily precipitation data (both historical data and data gathered from simulation experiments for future periods) over the Korean peninsula as simulated by the models in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5). Simulation data under two Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios, namely RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, were used. Observed data and 17 CMIP5 models for 12 gird cells in Korea have been examined to predict future changes in precipitation extremes. A simple regional frequency analysis of pooling observations from three stations in each cell was employed to reduce the estimation variance and local fluctuations. A bias correction technique using the regression‐type transfer function was applied to these simulation data. Return levels spanning over 20 and 50 years, as well as the return periods relative to the reference years (1971–2005), were estimated for two future periods, namely Period 1 (2021–2050) and Period 2 (2066–2095). From these analyses, relative increase observed in the spatially averaged 20‐year (50‐year) return level was approximately 23% (16%) and 45% (36%) in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 experiments, respectively, by the end of the 21st century. We concluded that extreme rainfalls will likely occur two times and four times more frequently in the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively, as compared to in the reference years by the end of the 21st century.

Lee, Youngsaeng↗
DOE OSTI2026

Variance reduction in lattice QCD observables via normalizing flows

Normalizing flows can be used to construct unbiased, reduced-variance estimators for lattice field theory observables that are defined by a derivative with respect to action parameters. This work implements the approach for observables involving gluonic operator insertions in the SU(3) Yang-Mills theory and two-flavor QCD in four space-time dimensions. Variance reduction by factors of 10–60 is achieved in glueball correlation functions and in gluonic matrix elements related to hadron structure, with demonstrated computational advantages. The observed variance reduction is found to be approximately independent of the lattice volume, so volume transfer can be utilized to minimize training costs.

Abbott, Ryan [Columbia U.; MIT, Cambridge, CTP; IA↗