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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Microgrid Tiered Circuits Effects for a Planned Housing Community in Puerto Rico

Puerto Rico faced a double strike from hurricanes Irma and Maria in 2017. The resulting damage required a comprehensive rebuild of electric infrastructure. There are plans and pilot projects to rebuild with microgrids to increase resilience. This paper provides a techno-economic analysis technique and case study of a potential future community in Puerto Rico that combines probabilistic microgrid design analysis with tiered circuits in building energy modeling. Tiered circuits in buildings allow electric load reduction via remote disconnection of non-critical circuits during an emergency. When coupled to a microgrid, tiered circuitry can reduce the chances of a microgrid's storage and generation resources being depleted. The analysis technique is applied to show 1) Approximate cost savings due to a tiered circuit structure and 2) Approximate cost savings gained by simultaneously considering resilience and sustainability constraints in the microgrid optimization. The analysis technique uses a resistive capacitive thermal model with load profiles for four tiers (tier 1-3 and non-critical loads). Three analyses were conducted using: 1) open-source software called Tiered Energy in Buildings and 2) the Microgrid Design Toolkit. For a fossil fuel based microgrid 30% of the total microgrid costs of 1.18 million USD were calculated where the non-tiered case keeps all loads 99.9% available and the tiered case keeps tier 1 at 99.9%, tier 2 at 95%, tier 3 at 80% availability, with no requirement on non-critical loads. The same comparison for a sustainable microgrid showed 8% cost savings on a 5.10 million USD microgrid due to tiered circuits. The results also showed 6-7% cost savings when our analysis technique optimizes sustainability and resilience simultaneously in comparison to doing microgrid resilience analysis and renewables net present value analysis independently. Though highly specific to our case study, similar assessments using our analysis technique can elucidate value of tiered circuits and simultaneous consideration of sustainability and resilience in other locations.

building energy modeling↗
DOE OSTI2020

Planning for the storm: Considering renewable energy for critical infrastructure resilience

This study uses the renewable energy optimization model to assess three critical facilities in North Carolina. Techno-economic results were then compared to analyses completed for critical facilities in California and New York to assess energy system cost effectiveness. Though solar photovoltaic (PV) arrays are cost-effective across each of the three North Carolina facilities, adopting battery storage to enable PV to operate with existing diesel generators in a hybrid energy system reduces the economic value of the system. This is in contrast to more economically viable systems in California and New York. All of these systems also offer unquantified resilience benefits by extending operation from hours to weeks across the facilities. If decision makers were able to value the resilience benefits offered by each system or utility rate structures were changed to incentivize battery storage during normal operations, it would impact these assessments. Even so, this analysis provides decision makers a key set of cost benchmarks when considering how they might improve resilience at their critical operations.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Climate-extreme modeling framework for sustainable flood management in the Arabian Peninsula

Evaluating extreme precipitation events (EPEs) is essential for building climate-resilient water management strategies, but it remains a major challenge in ungauged basins. Using the 26,070 km 2 Wadi al-Rummah basin in central Saudi Arabia as a case study, we developed an alternative, reliable, cost-effective satellite-based framework that combines empirically derived EPE thresholds, imagery-calibrated 2D hydrodynamic modeling, GRACE water-storage diagnostics, and bias-corrected CMIP6 projections to assess flood hazards and recharge potential under current and future climate scenarios in ungauged basins. The integrated approach and the resulting findings followed four key steps: (1) Identified a 22.5 mm EPE threshold, the 80th percentile of 3-day GPM/IMERG rainfall (2000–2024), aligned with flood-triggering events (Nov 2018: 23–28 mm; Apr, 2023: 42 mm); (2) Developed and calibrated a RiverFlow2D model using Sentinel-2 and PlanetScope imagery for the November 2018 flood, accurately reproducing flood depth and extent (RMSE ≤0.31 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.91), and estimating runoff (41 %), infiltration (25 %), and evaporation (34 %); (3) Independently validated the model with the April 2023 event (RMSE ≤0.35 m; fuzzy-Dice ≥0.86); (4) Conducted climate projections (2025–2100) from five bias-corrected NEX-GDDP CMIP6 models that revealed a 34 % increase in EPE intensity under SSP2-4.5 and 48 % under SSP5-8.5 scenarios, relative to 20th-century baselines. Our findings indicate that while intensifying extremes in the 21st century increase flood risk, the results highlight the potential for episodic recharge if effective retention strategies are employed, and offer a transferable model for climate-informed planning in data-scarce arid regions.

CMIP6↗
DOE OSTI2022

Case Study: Resilience Benefits of Distributed Wind Against Fuel and Weather Hazards in Alaska

In this case study of St. Mary’s Village, Alaska, we present a resilience evaluation exercise. A resilience framework is employed to identify system characteristics, relevant metrics, and resilience hazards and to assess the performance against the hazards with and without a distributed wind system installed. The results show the resilience benefits provided by the distributed wind installation against fuel shortage hazards and cold weather hazards. The resilience benefits can be assigned monetary values, which will be highly dependent on actual circumstances of the hazard, but provide insight into value streams of distributed wind that are not usually considered. For example, the single 900 kW turbine was found to prevent an average of 14,643 kWh of load from being dropped during a two-day diesel fuel shortage event, which saved the community $447,592 from the prevented outages. This case study serves as an example for novel power system resilience analysis and builds understanding of resilience hazards that are common across many power systems.

Culler, Megan J.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Cortical proteins may provide motor resilience in older adults

Motor resilience proteins may be a high value therapeutic target that offset the negative effects of pathologies on motor function. This study sought to identify cortical proteins associated with motor decline unexplained by brain pathologies that provide motor resilience. We studied 1226 older decedents with annual motor testing, postmortem brain pathologies and quantified 226 proteotypic peptides in prefrontal cortex. Twenty peptides remained associated with motor decline in models controlling for ten brain pathologies (FDR < 0.05). Higher levels of nine peptides and lower levels of eleven peptides were related to slower decline. A higher motor resilience protein score based on averaging the levels of all 20 peptides was related to slower motor decline, less severe parkinsonism and lower odds of mobility disability before death. Cortical proteins may provide motor resilience. Targeting these proteins in further drug discovery may yield novel interventions to maintain motor function in old age.

Buchman, Aron↗
DOE OSTI2025

Techno-Economic Analysis of Data-Driven and Transactive Approaches for Resilience Enhancement

As extreme weather events lead to more frequent power outages, understanding and enhancing grid resilience is critical to mitigating economic losses and non-energy impacts from service disruptions. Here, this study introduces a novel techno-economic analysis framework for evaluating resilience enhancement mechanisms. The framework combines grid response modeling with a co-simulation approach and valuation methodology to provide a comprehensive assessment. We apply this framework to a realistic case study of the Texas grid during Winter Storm Uri in February 2021. Two advanced resilience strategies are analyzed: a data-driven rolling outage mechanism and a transactive energy (TE) based allocation scheme. The rolling outage scheme selectively serves customers based on real-time curtailment needs, while the TE scheme allows customers to trade energy allocations according to their preferences. Our findings show that both the rolling outage and TE schemes significantly outperform conventional methods (i.e. controlled outages) by reducing the amount of energy not supplied to customers by 41% and 64%, respectively. These approaches also enhance flexibility and customer satisfaction, while improving energy utilization for greater resilience. Additionally, they maintain thermal comfort about 3.5 times better and substantially lower customer risk exposure. A key contribution of this study is addressing both utility and customer perspectives while considering both energy and non-energy impacts. The techno-economic analysis indicates that implementing these resilience enhancement strategies would incur an additional 1.1Bto1.6B in utility costs but has the potential to avoid 17.3Bto18B of customer losses as compared to existing solutions, thereby underscoring the value of investing in advanced resilience, as it provides significant societal benefits to customers.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models–specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

resilience↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Using Degradation Modeling to Identify Fragile Operational Conditions in Human- and Component-driven Resilience Assessment

Studying failure events shows that many high-impact events result from the complex interactions between precipitating failure events and degraded operational conditions. Often, when a system is put in operations, unforeseen practical realities (e.g., maintenance and/or workforce availability) lead the system to be operated in configurations outside its envisioned nominal range. However, design-time failure models often assume that the failure events are initiated in an idealized, nominal state of system operation, resulting in an incomplete assessment of future risk. To solve this, this paper develops a framework to consider degraded operational performance in scenario-based resilience models which uses a corresponding model of performance degradation to determine the values of deteriorated model parameters in the resilience model. This framework is demonstrated on a remotely-piloted rover to determine the (individual and combined) effect of drive-train wear and operator fatigue on the resilience of the rover to drive-train faults. This demonstration showed the substantial impact that degradation has on resilience, highlighting the need to account for degradation in resilience models--specifically, unconsidered degradation can lead to overestimates of resilience (and thus underestimates of safety margin) and because resilience can degrade prior to visible unreliability, which can lead to an operational environment with a high propensity for high-impact unforeseen failure events.

Daniel Hulse↗
DOE OSTI2023

Shedding light on the economic costs of long-duration power outages: A review of resilience assessment methods and strategies

Here this paper provides a literature review of methods and modeling techniques to estimate the cost of power system outages, along with the value of outage mitigation or system resilience. Regulators, policymakers, and infrastructure owners have a growing need to understand the methods for estimating the benefits of resilience improvements of electric infrastructure against natural and man-made disasters. There is a broad literature that estimates the cost of short-duration outages and a small but developing literature on estimating the cost of long-duration outages. This article reviews the models used to estimate the cost of outages and discusses their relative strengths. Additionally, this paper identifies key questions from stakeholders regarding resilience investment and maps them to the relevant models that would help answer them. We include recommendations for future work to include recent advances in regional economic modeling that can estimate region and demographic-specific costs and the distributional consequences of potential resilience projects.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2020

Exceptional subgenome stability and functional divergence in the allotetraploid Ethiopian cereal teff

Teff (Eragrostis tef) is a cornerstone of food security in the Horn of Africa, where it is prized for stress resilience, grain nutrition, and market value. Here, we report a chromosome-scale assembly of allotetraploid teff (variety Dabbi) and patterns of subgenome dynamics. The teff genome contains two complete sets of homoeologous chromosomes, with most genes maintaining as syntenic gene pairs. TE analysis allows us to estimate that the teff polyploidy event occurred ~1.1 million years ago (mya) and that the two subgenomes diverged ~5.0 mya. Despite this divergence, we detect no large-scale structural rearrangements, homoeologous exchanges, or biased gene loss, in contrast to many other allopolyploids. The two teff subgenomes have partitioned their ancestral functions based on divergent expression across a diverse expression atlas. Together, these genomic resources will be useful for accelerating breeding of this underutilized grain crop and for fundamental insights into polyploid genome evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

gcm_eval (Global Climate Model Evaluation) [SWR-24-37]

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex as our changing climate continues to affect the weather we experience which in turn drives changes in the ever increasing share of renewable energy generation and energy demand. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and often subjective process. There is no single perfect climate model or dataset for all applications. In this repository, we include software and the corresponding assessments of various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6), evaluating their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparing of their future projections of climate change. We focus on variables that directly affect the energy system including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this repository is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and datasets in subsequent work.

Buster, Grant↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evaluation of Global Climate Models for Use in Energy Analysis

The interplay between energy, climate, and weather is becoming more complex due to increasing contributions of renewable energy generation, energy storage, electrified end uses, and the increasing frequency of extreme weather events. Energy system analyses commonly rely on meteorological inputs to estimate renewable energy generation and energy demand; however, these inputs rarely represent the estimated impacts of future climate change. Climate models and publicly available climate change datasets can be used for this purpose, but the selection of inputs from the myriad of available models and datasets is a nuanced and subjective process. In this work, we assess datasets from various global climate models (GCMs) from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 6 (CMIP6). We present evaluations of their skills with respect to the historical climate and comparisons of their future projections of climate change for two climate change scenarios. We present the results for different climatic and energy system regions and include interactive figures in the accompanying software repository. Previous work has presented similar GCM evaluations, but none have presented variables and metrics specifically intended for comprehensive energy systems analysis including impacts on energy demand, thermal cooling, hydropower, water availability, solar energy generation, and wind energy generation. We focus on GCM output meteorological variables that directly affect these energy system components including the representation of extreme values that can drive grid resilience events. The objective of this work is not to recommend the best climate model and dataset for a given analysis, but instead to provide a reference to facilitate the selection of climate models and scenarios in subsequent work.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cost-Benefit Analysis of Electricity Resilience Projects: State of the Art and Gap Analysis

Utilities and regulators must weigh the benefits of electricity resilience projects against their costs, which would be passed on to customers. Cost-benefit analysis (CBA) is an appropriate method for assessing this tradeoff. Here, in this paper we review the literature on CBA of electricity resilience projects and analyze gaps in the available methods and tools. The costs of resilience projects are typically straightforward to estimate but their benefits — particularly the avoided costs of power interruptions — are complex to quantify and monetize. A common perception among practitioners is that current CBA tools are not sufficiently mature to be adopted into real-world practice. We propose an electricity resilience CBA framework consisting of several elements: risks, physical impacts, power interruptions, economic impacts, and resilience projects. While methods for some elements are well-developed, there is a need for novel approaches to value avoided power interruptions, integrate multiple risks and benefit streams, and incorporate uncertainty.

Cost-benefit analysis↗
DOE OSTI2020

Historical Hydropower Operations and Economic Value

This report on historical hydropower operations and economic value focuses primarily on addressing HydroWIRES Objective 1.3: Advance valuation of conventional and pumped-storage hydropower assets. It is informed by previous work performed by Argonne and other national laboratories on the modeling and analysis of value of pumped storage and conventional hydropower. The results from this report will feed into the new projects that are planned under the HydroWIRES initiative and that will examine hydropower’s value in providing grid reliability and resilience, as well as in improving the modeling and representation of hydropower in power system models. Other relevant DOE efforts include various WPTO-funded projects, such as the Beyond Levelized Cost of Energy Project and Integrated Hydropower and Storage Systems, that are currently addressing similar challenges associated with defining grid service values that arise from hydropower machine capabilities.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2025

Hybrid Power Plants for Energy Resilience: A Case Study

As renewable energy technologies are increasingly adopted, they pose an opportunity to improve the sustainability and resilience of distributed grids, especially when their design and operation is coordinated as a hybrid power plant. When included in hybrid power plants, distributed wind turbines in particular have the potential to enhance the resilience of distributed grids in areas with good wind resource, due to their ability to provide more consistent generation and ancillary services as compared to photo-voltaic (PV) solar panels. Despite this benefit, U.S. distributed wind adoption is lower than other comparable renewable energy technologies. In this study, we seek to demonstrate how hybrid power plants that include distributed wind turbines can contribute to distribution grid resilience by meeting loads (especially critical loads) more consistently, increasing reserve capacity, and providing value to customers during outages. To demonstrate these contributions, we integrate three separate frameworks and apply them to a case study in a rural electric cooperative in Iowa. Through this case study, we simulate and compare hybrid power plant design and operation during two hazard events: a tornado that causes a 48-hour distribution outage and a winter weather event that causes a 6-hour generation outage. The inclusion of a hybrid power plant that leverages 1) increased battery duration and 2) advanced forecasting and dispatch strategies that reserve capacity leading up to a hazard event best reduce lost loads as well as diesel consumption that would otherwise be used to meet those loads during short- and long-duration hazard events. Depending on the hybrid power plant capacity and operation, we find that the outage mitigation value of a hybrid power plant (measured in value to customers to avoid an outage and avoided lost revenues for the utility) is significant in both hazard events; adding wind, solar, and battery assets to the existing system adds about $50-$100M in avoided lost load and at least $4-$8k in utility value in the tornado hazard event, and $570k-$2.2M in avoided lost load and at least $220-$650 in utility value in the winter hazard scenario. In both the tornado and winter hazard scenarios, optimizing the operation of the hybrid system for resilience can lend similar value as increasing battery duration by 5 MWh for the lower capacity systems considered.

17 WIND ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Microgrid's Role in Enhancing the Security and Flexibility of City Energy Systems

Smart cities depend on flexible and secure energy systems to ensure resilient power for critical infrastructure; however, recent weather-related events and cyberattacks have highlighted weaknesses in our energy systems, with the potential for widespread economic and security impacts. As stated by the Executive Office of the President, "the resilience of the US electric grid is a key part of the nation's defense against severe weather." To address the energy delivery security challenge, microgrids are rising as a viable solution that enhances the flexibility and resilience of the distribution grid and boosts the reliability of the local supply for the end-user. Traditionally, high capital investment has been a barrier to large-scale adoption of microgrid technology. Understanding the flexibility and resilience benefits of microgrids and accounting for the associated value streams can make the microgrid's proposition economically viable. In this chapter, microgrids' utility and their potential to serve as a flexible and resilient resource for the utility grid by providing capabilities such as peak shaving, demand response, and frequency regulation is presented. Moreover, other value streams, such as (1) their ability to island during a disaster and sustain critical loads which makes them a robust resilience solution for end-users, in the event of the utility grid outage and (2) microgrids also provide a flexible platform for integrating distributed energy resources in conjunction with storage and conventional generation technologies, strengthen microgrid's role in reducing the over-arching goal of emission reduction. Given the myriad of benefits associated with microgrids, we present strategies which can be employed for making microgrid itself resilient against physical and cyberthreats by employing hardware, software, and personnel training solutions to operate the microgrid before, during, and after a potential disaster. This chapter, thus, provides a holistic study of the microgrid as a resilience resource, for the utility grid, and a self-contained end-user for the end-user.

cyber-physical system↗
DOE OSTI2023

Public values failure associated with Hurricane Ian power outages

Power outages from extreme weather events can diminish community resilience, making it difficult for the areas impacted to bounce back after such events. For socially vulnerable populations, the frequency and duration of power outages can be even more severe. Governments have an obligation to protect public values, or those values that are most fundamental to society, which includes equitable resilience. Using Jørgensen and Bozeman's inventory of public values, this manuscript explores how power outages from extreme weather events create public values failures. More specifically, the manuscript evaluates intraorganizational aspects of public administration during power outages in Florida during Hurricane Ian in 2022. Framing power outages as a public values failure may motivate greater time and effort toward improving equitable access to more resilient power systems.

Entress, Rebecca M.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Robust negativity in the quantum-to-classical transition of Kerr dynamics

Here, we quantify the quantum-to-classical transition of the single-mode Kerr nonlinear dynamics in the presence of loss. We establish three timescales that govern the dynamics, each with distinct characteristics. For times short compared with the Ehrenfest time, the evolution is classical, characterized by Gaussian dynamics. For sufficiently long times, as we increase the initial photon number, unitary Kerr evolution would generate macroscopic superpositions of coherent states (so-called kitten states). However, this is severely restricted in the presence of small photon loss, and the expectation values of observables coincide with their classical values. The intermediate timescale, however, shows resilient quantum behavior in the macroscopic limit. We show that in the mean-field non-Gaussian regime, the Kerr Hamiltonian (with small photon loss) generates a significant amount of Wigner-negativity, and classical flow is recovered only if the loss rate grows with system size. Our results broaden the usual understanding of quantum-to-classical transitions and demonstrate the potential for creating robust nonclassical resources for continuous-variable quantum information processing in the presence of loss.

Raza, Mohsin [University of New Mexico, Albuquerqu↗