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At least 73 records · Page 4

Subtropical Eastern North Pacific SST bias in earth system models

Karthik Balaguru (PNNL), Luke Van Roekel (LLNL), L. Ruby Leung (PNNL) and Milena Veneziani (LLNL) Abstract: This study systematically evaluates the warm SST bias in the Subtropical Eastern North Pacific (SENP), a problem plaguing most CMIP6 models, using the Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 1 (E3SM). Compared to the model at its standard resolution (1o atmosphere, 30-60 km ocean), the SST bias improves in several regions at high resolution (0.25o atmosphere, 18-6 km ocean) except in subtropical eastern boundary regions, such as the SENP. A mixed layer heat budget analysis reveals that errors in the surface radiative fluxes and horizontal heat advection are primarily responsible for the bias. Analysis of HighResMIP models indicates that the lack of improvement in the SENP SST bias with resolution is not native to E3SM alone. A larger CMIP6 inter-model correlation of SST bias with biases in surface winds than radiation highlights the important role of large-scale circulation biases in the SENP SST bias in coupled models.

Balaguru, Karthik↗

Performance of Cloud 3D Solvers in Ice Cloud Shortwave Radiation Closure Over the Equatorial Western Pacific Ocean

Abstract For retrieving cloud optical properties from satellite images or computing these properties from climate model output, computationally efficient treatments of cloud horizontal inhomogeneity include the Monte Carlo Independent Column Approximation (McICA) and the Tripleclouds method. Computationally efficient treatment of cloud horizontal radiation exchanges includes the SPeedy Algorithm for Radiative TrAnsfer through CloUd Sides (SPARTACUS). As a test to derive properties from satellite images, we collocate Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud retrievals with near‐nadir Cloud and the Earth's Radiant Energy System (CERES) footprints in July 2008 over an equatorial western Pacific Ocean region to compare the performance of the McICA, Tripleclouds, and SPARTACUS solvers to the conventional plane‐parallel homogeneous (PPH) treatment. PPH overestimates cloud albedo, and the three solvers effectively reduce overestimation with root mean square error of shortwave upwelling irradiance decreasing between 15.72 and 18.53 W m −2 , or about 22%–25%. Although cloud top variability does not get fed into the simulations, all three solvers also reduce the effect of cloud top variability on cloud albedo. Entrapment (energy reflected downward from clouds) and horizontal radiation transfer have opposite effects on the SPARTACUS cloud albedo simulation. The net effect depends on the cloud vertical extent, the unawareness of which limits the performance of the SPARTACUS solver.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hurricane‐Like Vortices in Conditionally Unstable Moist Convection

Abstract This study investigates the emergence of hurricane‐like vortices in idealized simulations of rotating moist convection. A Boussinesq atmosphere with simplified thermodynamics for phase transitions is forced by prescribing the temperature and humidity at the upper and lower boundaries. The governing equations are solved numerically using a variable‐density incompressible Navier‐Stokes solver with adaptive mesh refinement to explore the behavior of moist convection under a broad range of conditions. In the absence of rotation, convection aggregates into active patches separated by large unsaturated regions. Rotation modulates this statistical equilibrium state so that the self‐aggregated convection organizes hurricane‐like vortices. The warm and saturated air converges to the center of the vortices, and the latent heat released through the upwelling, forms the warm core structure. These hurricane‐like vortices share characteristics similar to tropical cyclones in the earth's atmosphere. The hurricane‐like vortices occur under conditionally unstable conditions where the potential energy given at the boundaries is large enough, corresponding to a moderate rate of rotation. This regime shares many similar characteristics to the tropical atmosphere indicating that the formation of intense meso‐scale vortices is a general characteristic of rotating moist convection. The model used here does not include any interactions with radiation, wind‐evaporation feedback, or cloud microphysics, indicating that, while these processes may be relevant for tropical cyclogenesis in the Earth atmosphere, they are not its primary cause. Instead, our results confirm that the formation and maintenance of hurricane‐like vortices involve a combination of atmospheric dynamics under the presence of rotation and of phase transitions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hyporheic Exchange Due to Cobbles on Sandy Beds

Hyporheic exchange induced by riverbed topography and roughness provides important ecosystem functions. We investigated how cobble clusters embedded in a finer-grained sand bed affect the near-bed channel flow and the exchange of surface and subsurface water. We tested how the spacing and embeddedness of cobbles altered hyporheic exchange through a three-dimensional fully coupled surface-subsurface model. The 3D modeling framework captured the full physics of the exchange process locating the lateral position of upwelling zones on the side of the cobble. As the cobbles protrude more into the channel, eddies appear downstream, with smaller vortices where cobbles are closer together. In our simulations, hyporheic exchange increased with the spacing and protrusion ratio. The travel time in the hyporheic zone also increased with the protrusion ratio because the hyporheic flow paths are longer when the cobble is more protruded. With different spacings at the highest protrusion ratio, the average slope of early time breakthrough curve was steeper for large spacing settings: the travel time increases as the spacing decreases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Thermo-Hydro-Chemical Simulation of Mid-Ocean Ridge Hydrothermal Systems: Static 2D Models and Effects of Paleo-Seawater Chemistry

Decades of research have resulted in characterization of the ocean floor manifestations of mid-ocean ridge (MOR) hydrothermal systems, yet numerical models accounting for the connections between heat transfer, hydrology and geochemistry have been slow to develop. The Thermo-hydro-chemical code ToughReact can be used to describe the coupled effects of fluid flow, heat transfer, and fluid-rock chemical interactions that occur in MOR systems. We describe the results of 2-dimensional simulations of steady state flow in fractured diabase with mineral-fluid chemical reactions. Basal heating and specified permeability yield maximum temperature of 400°C. Total fluid flux and high fracture flow velocities are in accord with observations. Fluid chemistry, mineralogical changes and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr ratios can be compared to observations to assess and calibrate models. Simulated high temperature fracture fluids have Mg and SO 4 near zero, elevated Ca and 87 Sr/ 86 Sr of about 0.7040. Total alteration is 10%–50% for simple models of spreading. Anhydrite forms mainly near the base of the upwelling zone and results in substantial local fracture porosity reduction. A calibrated model is used to predict how Sr isotopes and other features of altered oceanic crust would be different in the Cretaceous (95 Ma) early Proterozoic (1,800 Ma) and Archean (3,800 Ma), when seawater may have had high Ca and Sr concentrations, lower pH, higher temperature, and lower Na, Mg, and SO 4 . The simulations are offered as a start on what ultimately may require a longer-term community effort to better understand the role of MOR thermo-hydro-chemical systems in Earth evolution.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

How Well do Earth System Models Capture Apparent Relationships Between Phytoplankton Biomass and Environmental Variables?

Abstract As phytoplankton form the base of the marine food web, understanding the controls on their abundance is fundamental to understanding marine ecology and its sensitivity to global climate change. While many Earth System Models (ESMs) predict phytoplankton biomass, it is unclear whether they properly capture the mechanistic relationships that control this quantity in the real ocean. We used Random Forest analysis to analyze the output of 13 ESMs as well as two observational data sets. The target variable was phytoplankton carbon and the predictors included environmental parameters known to influence phytoplankton, including nutrients, light, mixed layer depth, salinity, temperature, and upwelling. We examined the following: (a) What fractions of variability in ESMs and observations can be linked to the large‐scale environmental variables simulated by ESMs? (b) What are the dominant predictors and relationships affecting phytoplankton biomass? (c) How well do ESMs simulate phytoplankton carbon and do they simulate the relationships we see in observations? About 88%–96% of the variability in observational data sets and greater than 98% in the ESMs was accounted for by environmental variables known to influence phytoplankton biomass. The dominant predictors in the observational data sets were shortwave radiation and dissolved iron, with temperature and ammonium also relatively important. All the ESMs show that shortwave radiation is the most important variable and most of them predict the right sign of sensitivity to most variables. However, the models predict that biomass reaches maximum levels at unrealistically low levels of iron and unrealistically high levels of light.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

The Influence of Air‐Sea CO 2 Disequilibrium on Carbon Sequestration by the Ocean's Biological Pump

Abstract The ocean's biological carbon pump (BCP) affects the Earth's climate by sequestering CO 2 away from the atmosphere for decades to millennia. One primary control on the amount of carbon sequestered by the biological pump is air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium, which is controlled by the rate of air‐sea CO 2 exchange and the residence time of CO 2 in surface waters. Here, we use a data‐assimilated model of the soft tissue BCP to quantify carbon sequestration inventories and time scales from remineralization in the water column to equilibration with the atmosphere. We find that air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium enhances the global biogenic carbon inventory by ∼35% and its sequestration time by ∼70 years compared to identical calculations made assuming instantaneous air‐sea CO 2 exchange. Locally, the greatest enhancement occurs in the subpolar Southern Ocean, where air‐sea disequilibrium increases sequestration times by up to 600 years and the biogenic dissolved inorganic carbon inventory by >100% in the upper ocean. Contrastingly, in deep‐water formation regions of the North Atlantic and Antarctic margins, where biological production creates undersaturated surface waters which are subducted before fully equilibrating with the atmosphere, air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium decreases the depth‐integrated sequestration inventory by up to ∼150%. The global enhancement of carbon sequestration by air‐sea disequilibrium is particularly important for carbon respired in deep waters that upwell in the Southern Ocean. These results highlight the importance of accounting for air‐sea CO 2 disequilibrium when evaluating carbon sequestration by the biological pump and for assessing the efficacy of ocean‐based CO 2 removal methods.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

Perturbation of Tropical Stratospheric Ozone Through Homogeneous and Heterogeneous Chemistry Due To Pinatubo

Abstract The Pinatubo eruption in 1991 injected 10–20 Tg SO 2 into the stratosphere, which formed sulfate aerosols through oxidation. Our modeling results show that volcanic heating significantly perturbs the heterogeneous and homogeneous chemistry including NO x and HO x catalytic cycles in the tropical stratosphere. The simulated tropical chemical ozone tendency is positive at 20 mb while negative at 10 mb in the tropics. The simulated ozone chemical tendency is of the same magnitude as the dynamical ozone tendency caused by the accelerated tropical upwelling, but with the opposite sign. Our study finds that the tropical ozone chemical tendency due to homogeneous chemistry becomes more important than heterogeneous chemistry 3 months after eruption. Sensitivity simulations further suggest that the tropical ozone tendency through heterogeneous chemistry is saturated when the injected amount exceeds 2 Tg.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

North‐East Peri‐Tethyan Water Column Deoxygenation and Euxinia at the Paleocene Eocene Thermal Maximum

Abstract The Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum (PETM) is associated with climatic change and biological turnover. It shares features with the Oceanic Anoxic Events (OAEs) of the Mesozoic, such as transient global warming and biogeochemical perturbations. However, the PETM experienced a more muted expansion of marine anoxia compared to the Mesozoic OAEs (especially OAE2), with geographically limited evidence for photic zone euxinia (PZE). We explore the extent and drivers of marine deoxygenation during the PETM using biomarkers for water column euxinia and anoxia as well as an intermediate complexity Earth system model (cGEnIE). These reveal that the water column in the North‐East Peri‐Tethys became anoxic, with euxinic conditions reaching the photic zone (PZE) during the PETM. Our model shows that euxinia developed due to a global increase in the ocean nutrient inventory with concomitant oxygen consumption, similar to findings for OAE2. The particularly strong regional response in the NE Peri‐Tethys appears to arise from a combination of global CO 2 ‐weathering forcing, regionally restricted circulation and upwelling of sulphidic thermocline waters. Unlike OAE2, anoxia and PZE do not become widespread in our PETM simulations, consistent with new and existing geochemical and biological proxy data. This globally muted response could result from reduced biogeochemical feedbacks to climate forcing relative to the mid‐Cretaceous climate. Our observations suggest that similar mechanisms operated in response to disparate Cenozoic (PETM) and Mesozoic (OAEs) transient global warming events, while also highlighting that background conditions are crucial in modulating the sensitivity of Earth's system to them.

Behrooz, L.↗

Dissolved Organic Carbon in Coastal Waters: Global Patterns, Stocks and Environmental Physical Controls

Abstract Dissolved organic carbon (DOC) in coastal waters is integral to biogeochemical cycling, but global and regional drivers of DOC are still uncertain. In this study we explored spatial and temporal differences in DOC concentrations and stocks across the global coastal ocean, and how these relate to temperature and salinity. We estimated a global median coastal DOC stock of 3.15 Pg C (interquartile range (IQR) = 0.85 Pg C), with median DOC concentrations being 2.2 times higher than in open ocean surface waters. Globally and seasonally, salinity was the main driver of DOC with concentrations correlated negatively with salinity, without a clear relationship to temperature. DOC concentrations and stocks varied with region and season and this pattern is likely driven by riverine inputs of DOC and nutrients that stimulate coastal phytoplankton production. Temporally, high DOC concentrations occurred mainly in months with high freshwater input, with some exceptions such as in Eastern Boundary Current margins where peaks are related to primary production stimulated by nutrients upwelled from the adjacent ocean. No spatial trend between DOC and temperature was apparent, but many regions (19 out of 25) had aligned peaks of seasonal temperature and DOC, related to increased phytoplankton production and vertical stratification at high temperatures. Links of coastal DOC with salinity and temperature highlight the potential for anthropogenic impacts to alter coastal DOC concentration and composition, and thereby ecosystem status.

Lønborg, Christian [Section for Marine Diversity a↗

Observed Increase in Tropical Cyclone‐Induced Sea Surface Cooling Near the U.S. Southeast Coast

Abstract Tropical cyclones (TCs) induce substantial upper‐ocean mixing and upwelling, leading to sea surface cooling. In this study, we explore changes in TC‐induced cold wakes along the United States (U.S.) Southeast and Gulf Coasts during 1982–2020. Our study shows a significant increase in TC‐induced sea surface temperature (SST) cooling of about 0.20°C near the U.S. Southeast Coast over this period. However, for the U.S. Gulf Coast, trends in TC‐induced SST cooling are insignificant. Analysis of the large‐scale oceanic environments indicate that the increasing TC‐induced cold wakes near the Southeast coast have been predominantly caused by the cooling of subsurface waters in that region. This upper‐ocean change is attributed to the enhancement of surface pressure gradient across land‐sea boundary and the associated increase in alongshore winds over there. Further analysis with climate models reveals the important role of anthropogenic forcings in driving these changes in the atmospheric circulation response along the U.S. Southeast Coast.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subsurface Cooling and Sea Surface Temperature Pattern Formation Over the Equatorial Pacific

Abstract The equatorial cold tongue region has not warmed up in response to historical radiative forcing in the real world, contrary to the strong warming often simulated by climate models. Here we demonstrate that climate models fail to represent one or both of the key processes driving observed sea surface temperature (SST) pattern formation: a realistic surface wind stress pattern shaping subsurface cooling through wind‐driven circulation changes, and effective connectivity between subsurface and surface temperatures via upwelling and mixing. Consequently, none of the models approximate the observed lack of cold tongue SST warming and strengthening of zonal SST gradient across the equatorial Pacific. Furthermore, those that come closest achieve this due to interhemispheric warming differences rather than equatorial dynamics as observed. Addressing different origins of subsurface cooling in observations and simulations, and how they connect to SST, will lead to improved understanding of tropical Pacific SST changes to date and how they will evolve in the future.

Jiang, Feng [Lamont‐Doherty Earth Observatory Colu↗

Improved Representations of Longwave Surface Emissivity to Reduce Surface and Atmospheric Heating Biases in Earth System Models

Abstract Many Earth system models (ESMs) approximate surface emissivity as a broadband constant. This approximation reduces the computational burden, yet omits the spectral structure of emissivity and atmospheric absorption. Neglecting spectral variation in surface emission introduces biases in longwave (LW) atmospheric fluxes and heating. Biases are strongest over surfaces with strongly varying emissivity and minimal atmospheric opacity. We examine these biases over water, ice, and snow surfaces. We partition spectral emissivity into the 16 spectral bands utilized by a single‐column atmospheric radiative transfer model (RRTMG_LW) commonly used in ESMs. We quantify flux and heating biases introduced by broadband assumptions relative to the spectrally resolved case for standard atmospheric profiles over each surface type. Current assumptions tend to overestimate upwelling surface fluxes; for example, the greybody assumption overestimates flux by 1.6 W/m 2 (0.52%) at the bottom of a mid‐latitude winter atmosphere over ice, and by 2.33 (1.0%) at the top of atmosphere. The blackbody assumption tends to artificially cool Earth's surface, stabilizing the lower troposphere. Interestingly, the optimal broadband emissivity can deviate from the Planck‐weighted mean by up to 3% depending on surface type and atmospheric profile. We investigate bias sensitivity to surface temperature, cloud water path, and atmospheric water vapor. Bias is most sensitive to water vapor content, and least sensitive to cloud water path. Lastly, we show that a modified greybody method with updated broadband values can reduce total surface flux bias up to 1.69 , comparable to a five‐band approach and at a fraction of the computational cost.

Manzo, L. [Department of Earth System Science Univ↗

Surface Energy Balance Responses to Radiative Forcing in the Central Arctic From MOSAiC and Models

The Arctic surface energy budget (SEB) couples the atmosphere with the sea ice, making it useful for both studying surface processes as well as evaluating models. Improved understanding of atmosphere-ice interactions is required to improve models, requiring year-round observations to address seasonally dependent biases. This work uses novel observations from the MOSAiC expedition to quantify the responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing over sea ice throughout a complete annual cycle. We identify two primary regimes of flux response: an ice growth regime in winter and an ice melt regime in summer. In the growth regime, changes in radiative forcing impact upwelling longwave, sensible heat, and subsurface heat fluxes, whereas in the melt regime changes in radiative forcing primarily alter the amount of melt and subsurface transmission because the surface temperature is fixed. These observed responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing are used to evaluate seven weather forecast models during the ice growth regime. In most models, the responses of surface fluxes to radiative forcing do not match observations. Many models also have biased downwelling longwave. One model (the Coupled Arctic Forecast System; CAFS) adequately captures both the mean radiative forcing and the flux responses in winter. CAFS is further evaluated against observations spanning the full MOSAiC year, demonstrating sufficient agreement to provide a more generalized understanding of these SEB process relationships across the Arctic.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Simulating Marine Ecosystem Dynamics and Biogeochemical Cycling With Multiple Plankton Functional Types

Current representations of marine ecosystems in Earth System Models are greatly simplified, neglecting key interactions between dynamic food webs, biogeochemistry, and climate change. We use the Marine Biogeochemistry Library code base within the Community Earth System Model 2.2.2 to create an expanded ecosystem model with eight phytoplankton groups and four zooplankton size classes (MARBL-8P4Z). Incorporating more specific plankton types and size classes has the potential to capture a wider range of possible behaviors of the ecosystem, its complex interactions with biogeochemistry, and its feedback to climate change. It also permits stronger observational constraints, including in situ group-specific biomass and various observational estimates of plankton community composition. MARBL-8P4Z broadly captures observed global-scale patterns in biomass and community composition for both phytoplankton and zooplankton, with a good performance in simulating broad biogeochemistry fields. The model shows comparable spatial patterns and magnitudes to the observed picophytoplankton biomass (Prochlorococcus, Synechococcus, picoeukaryotes), and captures the seasonal cycle of mesozooplankton biomass. Picophytoplankton groups and microzooplankton dominate biomass and production in oligotrophic, subtropical regions, while nano-phytoplankton, diatoms and the larger zooplankton groups prevail at higher latitudes and within upwelling zones. The model simulates reasonable energy transfer efficiency through the food web, with tight linkages between the phytoplankton community composition, zooplankton grazing, and carbon export, with the potential to link to fisheries models. Thus, MARBL-8P4Z has the potential to account for key climate-driven ecological shifts in the plankton that will modify ocean biogeochemistry in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

The GFDL‐CM4X Climate Model Hierarchy, Part II: Case Studies

This paper is Part II of a two‐part paper that documents the Climate Model version 4X (CM4X) hierarchy of coupled climate models developed at the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory. Part I of this paper is presented in Griffies et al. (2025a, https://doi.org/10.1029/2024MS004861 ). Here we present a suite of case studies that examine ocean and sea ice features that are targeted for further research, which include sea level, eastern boundary upwelling, Arctic and Southern Ocean sea ice, Southern Ocean circulation, and North Atlantic circulation. The case studies are based on experiments that follow the protocol of version 6 from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. The analysis reveals a systematic improvement in the simulation fidelity of CM4X relative to its CM4.0 predecessor, as well as an improvement when refining the ocean/sea ice horizontal grid spacing from the 0.25° of CM4X‐p25 to the 0.125° of CM4X‐p125. Even so, there remain many outstanding biases, thus pointing to the need for further grid refinements, enhancements to numerical methods, and/or advances in parameterizations, each of which target long‐standing model biases and limitations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Subglacial Discharge Effects on Antarctic Ice‐Shelf Basal Melt and the Southern Ocean in a Global, Coupled Ocean—Sea‐Ice Model

Subglacial freshwater from beneath Antarctica enters the ocean at depth, enhancing ice-shelf melting and affecting Southern Ocean properties. To study these effects in an Antarctic-wide context, we use a continental-scale subglacial hydrology model that calculates grounding line freshwater flux for a global, coupled ocean—sea-ice model. We find that subglacial discharge impacts melt rates primarily through continental shelf temperature modification, contrasting with findings from regional studies that do not permit large-scale adjustments. The consequence is that Antarctic melt rates scale with subglacial discharge more strongly than inferred from regional studies. We also find that the addition of buoyancy at depth facilitates heat upwelling to the surface, resulting in higher sea ice volume downstream of cold ice shelves and lower sea ice volume downstream of warm ice shelves. This highlights the drawbacks of simplifications in previous global studies that deposit Antarctic meltwater at the ocean surface and find uniform ocean surface cooling and sea-ice growth. While the patterns we find are robust, we conclude that the addition of subglacial discharge at present-day rates has a small effect on basal melt rates, hydrography, and sea ice. However, stronger discharge can have significant effects and can even accelerate a shift from low to high melting for ice shelves close to such a tipping point. Finally, the importance of feedbacks between enhanced cavity overturning and continental shelf conditions poses a complication for parameterizing subglacial discharge effects on melting for ice-sheet projections that do not include a coupled ocean component.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Depth-discrete metagenomics reveals the roles of microbes in biogeochemical cycling in the tropical freshwater Lake Tanganyika

Lake Tanganyika (LT) is the largest tropical freshwater lake, and the largest body of anoxic freshwater on Earth’s surface. LT’s mixed oxygenated surface waters float atop a permanently anoxic layer and host rich animal biodiversity. However, little is known about microorganisms inhabiting LT’s 1470 meter deep water column and their contributions to nutrient cycling, which affect ecosystem-level function and productivity. Here, we applied genome-resolved metagenomics and environmental analyses to link specific taxa to key biogeochemical processes across a vertical depth gradient in LT. We reconstructed 523 unique metagenome-assembled genomes (MAGs) from 34 bacterial and archaeal phyla, including many rarely observed in freshwater lakes. We identified sharp contrasts in community composition and metabolic potential with an abundance of typical freshwater taxa in oxygenated mixed upper layers, and Archaea and uncultured Candidate Phyla in deep anoxic waters. Genomic capacity for nitrogen and sulfur cycling was abundant in MAGs recovered from anoxic waters, highlighting microbial contributions to the productive surface layers via recycling of upwelled nutrients, and greenhouse gases such as nitrous oxide. Overall, our study provides a blueprint for incorporation of aquatic microbial genomics in the representation of tropical freshwater lakes, especially in the context of ongoing climate change, which is predicted to bring increased stratification and anoxia to freshwater lakes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗