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In this paper, an analytical method for comparing the performance of an ideal forecasting algorithm to the best statistical methods in terms of average data return is derived.
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All Shuttle Solid Rocket Motors (SRM's) exhibit low amplitude longitudinal pressure oscillations during motor burn. Although the oscillations have no known deleterious effect on motor ballistics, the acoustic pressure variations cause thrust oscillations that might affect Shuttle systems or components. The acoustic mode of greatest interest is the first or fundamental mode which, in the SRM, has a nominal frequency of 14-Hz. Oscillations in the SRM are believed to be caused by coupling between large scale vortices and the acoustic modes of the motor chamber. The vortices are thought to be created in the region of the motor segment interfaces and are inherent in the design of the motor. In such a situation the usual approach is to measure the oscillations and assess their impact on any sensitive components through tests and analysis. Questionable components can be altered to survive the vibration environment. As motor firings occur, oscillations are monitored to determine whether there are changes in the nature of the oscillations. Since the first static test, SRM's have been equipped with instrumentation especially designed to acquire chamber pressure oscillation data. Data from the first SRM static tests were used to establish predicted upper bounds for the maximum amplitudes in the latter half of burn. Those bounds have been used as a basis for worst-case simulation scenarios by specialists in structural dynamics at NASA and Rockwell International and to provide a basis for evaluating data from individual motors which were tested subsequent to the original SRM's. This paper updates the upper bounds prediction the High Performance Motors (HPM) by including data from all static tests performed to date including both original SRM's and post Challenger SRM's or Reusable Solid Rocket Motors (RSRM) in which the joint design was changed. All together, this study examines 27 SRM motors, 16 HPM motors and 11 RSRM motors. Predicted upper bounds will be made for both the first and second longitudinal modes. The first mode upper bounds will be compared to the original seven standard rocket motors (STD). The results indicate that, although the upper bounds have increased, they are still within acceptable bounds.
The apparent tidal disruption of Periodic Comet Shoemaker-Levy 9 (1993e) during a close encounter within approximately 1.62 planetary radii of Jupiter can be used along with theoretical models of tidal disruption to place an upper bound on the density of the predisruption body. Depending on the theoretical model used, these upper bounds range from rho(sub c) less than 0.702 +/- 0.080 g/cu cm for a simple analytical model calibrated by numerical smoothed particle hydrodynamics (SPH) simulations to rho(sub c) less than 1.50 +/- 0.17 g/cu cm for a detailed semianalytical model. The quoted uncertainties stem from an assumed uncertainty in the perijove radius. However, the uncertainty introduced by the different theoretical models is the major source of error; this uncertainty could be eliminated by future SPH simulations specialized to cometary disruptions, including the effects of initially prolate, spinning comets. If the SPH-based upper bound turns out to be most appropriate, it would be consistent with the predisruption body being a comet with a relatively low density and porous structure, as has been asserted previously based on observations of cometary outgassing. Regardless of which upper bound is preferable, the models all agree that the predisruption body could not have been a relatively high-density body, such as an asteroid with rho approximately = 2 g/cu cm.
A three-dimensional numerical model for current collection in a magnetized plasma is reported. The model is based on an electrostatic particle-in-cell code. The model yields self-consistent sheath structure including distributions of plasma and the electric potential around the body and the collection of electrons. The analytical theory of current collection by a body in a magnetized plasma yields an upper bound for the collected current determined by the conservation of energy and canonical angular momentum. The theory shows that the collected charged particles come from a cylindrical volume aligned with the magnetic shadow of the body; the maximum radius r(sub o) of this volume is determined by the body size, body potential, and the ambient magnetic field. This theory does not deal with the sheath structure around the body. The condition for the actual current to approach the upper-bound value has been a matter of debate. Our simulations reveal when and why the collected current becomes equal to its upper-bound value. Sheath size in the radial direction perpendicular to the axial ambient magnetic field is determined by the current-limiting radius r(sub o). Our simulation yields time-average current in good agreement with its upper bound. This feature of the current collection is explained as follows: Once electrons enter the sheath, some of them are freely accelerated perpendicular to the magnetic field because they are demagnetized by the large gradients in the perpendicular electric fields. Simulations show a large perpendicular acceleration, producing perpendicular energy as large as that determined by the potential on the body, especially in the region where perpendicular electric fields (E perpendicular) are the strongest. An analysis shows that the demagnetization of electrons occurs above a threshold potential on the body. This threshold condition follows from the breakdown of the adiabaticity of the electron dynamics inside the sheath.
A fin-stiffened strut concept which possesses high bending stiffness and low packaged volume has been identified for use on large space structures. The concept incorporates three curved fins which deploy from a core tube to increase the effective cross-sectional moment of inertia, the buckling load, and the vibration frequency of the strut. A strut design incorporating welded fin connections provides an upper bound of the strut buckling load. A strut design which allows the individual fins and core to move independently in the strut axial direction provides a lower bound of the strut buckling load which is approximately 20 to 25 percent of the upper bound. A practical strut design, incorporating hinge assemblies which constrain the fins to move together but independently of the core tube in the strut axial direction, provides a buckling load which is 75 to 80 percent of the upper bound. Euler's equation can be used to accurately predict buckling loads for the bounding designs. Flat plate finite element models of all designs give results that agree to within 10 percent of the experimental values. Equivalent beam models of the strut give results which are slightly less accurate.
The hot protons of the outer magnetosphere typically exhibit a temperature anistropy such that T(sub perp)/T(sub parallel) greater than 1, where perpendicular and parallel symbols denote directions relative to the background magnetic field. If this anisotrpy is sufficiently large, the electomagneitc proton cyclotron anistropy instability may be excited. This instability is studied using linear Vlasov theory and one-dimensional hybrid simulations for a homogeneous plasma model representative of conditions in the outer magnetosphere with a hot anisotropic proton component (denoted by subscript h) and a cool, initially isotropic proton component (subscript c). Linear theory yields an instability threshold condition on the hot proton temperature anistropy where as the simulations imply an upper bound on T(sub perp h)/T(sub parallel h); both the threshold and the upper bound have similar scaling with the maximum growth rate gamma (sub m), the parallel beta of the hot component, beta(sub parallel h), and the relative density of the hot component n(sub h)/n(sub e). An anlysis of plasma observations from the Los Alamos magnetospheric plasma analyzer (MPA) in geosynchronous orbits finds that the maximum value of the hot proton temperature anisotropy approximately satisfies the predicted scaling with beta(sub parallel h) and nu(sub h)/n(sub e) and yields the proportionality factor that quantifies this upper bound. The simulations are also used to examine the heating of the cool proton cyclotron instability. The simulations yield a scaling for the dimensionless late-time cool proton average temperature T(sub c)/T(sub parallel h) as (n(sub h)/n(sub e))/beta(sub parallel h exp 0.5). Analysis of MPA data shows that the observed values of T(sub c)/T(sub parallel h) have similar scaling and again yield the proportionality factor which quantifies this relationship.
The Northern Hemisphere data from the 19.2 GHz full sky survey are analyzed to place limits on the magnitude of Gaussian fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background implied by a variety of correlation functions. Included among the models tested are the monochromatic and Gaussian-shaped families, and those with power law spectra for n from -2 to 1. We place an upper bound on the quadrupole anisotropy of DeltaT/T less than 3.2 x 10 exp -5 rms, and an upper bound on scale-invariant (n = 1) fluctuations of a2 less than 4.5 x 10 exp -5 (95 percent confidence level). There is significant contamination of these data from Galactic emission, and improvement of our modeling of the Galaxy could yield a significant reduction of these upper bounds.
The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occurs. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub e (u) for the (255, 223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.
The decoder error probability for Reed-Solomon codes (more generally, linear maximum distance separable codes) is examined. McEliece and Swanson offered an upper bound on P sub E (u), the decoder error probability given that u symbol errors occur. This upper bound is slightly greater than Q, the probability that a completely random error pattern will cause decoder error. By using a combinatoric technique, the principle of inclusion and exclusion, an exact formula for P sub E (u) is derived. The P sub E (u) for the (255,223) Reed-Solomon Code used by NASA, and for the (31,15) Reed-Solomon code (JTIDS code), are calculated using the exact formula, and the P sub E (u)'s are observed to approach the Q's of the codes rapidly as u gets larger. An upper bound for the expression is derived, and is shown to decrease nearly exponentially as u increases. This proves analytically that P sub E (u) indeed approaches Q as u becomes large, and some laws of large numbers come into play.
The Crab Nebula, also known as Tau A, is a polarized astronomical source at millimeter wavelengths. It has been used as a stable light source for polarization angle calibration in millimeter-wave astronomy. However, it is known that its intensity and polarization vary as a function of time at a variety of wavelengths. Thus, it is of interest to verify the stability of the millimeter-wave polarization. If detected, polarization variability may be used to better understand the dynamics of Tau A, and for understanding the validity of Tau A as a calibrator. One intriguing application of such observation is to use it for the search of axionlike particles (ALPs). Ultralight ALPs couple to photons through a Chern-Simons term, and induce a temporal oscillation in the polarization angle of linearly polarized sources. After assessing a number of systematic errors and testing for internal consistency, we evaluate the variability of the polarization angle of the Crab Nebula using 2015 and 2016 observations with the 150 GHz P instrument. We place a median 95% upper bound of polarization oscillation amplitude A < 0.06 5 ° over the oscillation frequencies from 0.75 year − 1 to 0.66 hour − 1 . Assuming that no sources other than ALP are causing Tau A’s polarization angle variation, that the ALP constitutes all the dark matter, and that the ALP field is a stochastic Gaussian field, this bound translates into a median 95% upper bound of ALP-photon coupling g a γ γ < 2.16 × 10 − 12 GeV − 1 × ( m a / 10 − 21 eV ) in the mass range from 9.9 × 10 − 23 eV to 7.7 × 10 − 19 eV . This demonstrates that this type of analysis using bright polarized sources is as competitive as those using the polarization of cosmic microwave background in constraining ALPs. Published by the American Physical Society 2024
A concept for enhancing the design of control fins for supersonic tactical missiles is described. The concept makes use of aeroelastic tailoring to create fin designs (for given planforms) that limit the variations in hinge moments that can occur during maneuvers involving high load factors and high angles of attack. It combines supersonic nonlinear aerodynamic load calculations with finite-element structural modeling, static and dynamic structural analysis, and optimization. The problem definition is illustrated. The fin is at least partly made up of a composite material. The layup is fixed, and the orientations of the material principal axes are allowed to vary; these are the design variables. The objective is the magnitude of the difference between the chordwise location of the center of pressure and its desired location, calculated for a given flight condition. Three types of constraints can be imposed: upper bounds on static displacements for a given set of load conditions, lower bounds on specified natural frequencies, and upper bounds on the critical flutter damping parameter at a given set of flight speeds and altitudes. The idea is to seek designs that reduce variations in hinge moments that would otherwise occur. The block diagram describes the operation of the computer program that accomplishes these tasks. There is an option for a single analysis in addition to the optimization.
The Northern Hemisphere data from the 19.2 GHz full sky survey are analyzed to place limits on the magnitude of Gaussian fluctuations in the cosmic microwave background implied by a variety of correlation functions. Included among the models tested are the monochromatic and Gaussian-shaped families, and those with power-law spectra for n values between -2 and 1. An upper bound is placed on the quadrupole anisotropy of Delta T/T less than 3.2 x 10 exp -5 rms, and an upper bound on scale-invariant (n = 1) fluctuations of a2 less than 4.5 x 10 exp -5 (95 percent confidence level). There is significant contamination of these data from Galactic emission, and improvement of the modeling of the Galaxy could yield a significant reduction of these upper bounds.
A validation method for the synchronization subsystem of a fault-tolerant computer system is presented. The high reliability requirement of flight crucial systems precludes the use of most traditional validation methods. The method presented utilizes formal design proof to uncover design and coding errors and experimentation to validate the assumptions of the design proof. The experimental method is described and illustrated by validating an experimental implementation of the Software Implemented Fault Tolerance (SIFT) clock synchronization algorithm. The design proof of the algorithm defines the maximum skew between any two nonfaulty clocks in the system in terms of theoretical upper bounds on certain system parameters. The quantile to which each parameter must be estimated is determined by a combinatorial analysis of the system reliability. The parameters are measured by direct and indirect means, and upper bounds are estimated. A nonparametric method based on an asymptotic property of the tail of a distribution is used to estimate the upper bound of a critical system parameter. Although the proof process is very costly, it is extremely valuable when validating the crucial synchronization subsystem.
Here, we discuss the computational efficiency of the finite-temperature simulation with minimally entangled typical thermal states (METTS). To argue that METTS can be efficiently represented as matrix product states, we present an analytic upper bound for the average entanglement Rényi entropy of METTS for a Rényi index 0 < q ≤ 1. In particular, for one-dimensional (1D) gapless systems described by conformal field theories, the upper bound scales as O(cN 0 logβ) where c is the central charge and N is the system size. Furthermore, we numerically find that the average Rényi entropy exhibits a universal behavior characterized by the central charge and is roughly given by half of the analytic upper bound. Based on these results, we show that METTS can provide a speedup compared to employing the purification method to analyze thermal equilibrium states at low temperatures in 1D gapless systems.
Reduction techniques for traffic matrices are explored in some detail. These matrices arise in satellite switched time-division multiple access (SS/TDMA) techniques whereby switching of uplink and downlink beams is required to facilitate interconnectivity of beam zones. A traffic matrix is given to represent that traffic to be transmitted from n uplink beams to n downlink beams within a TDMA frame typically of 1 ms duration. The frame is divided into segments of time and during each segment a portion of the traffic is represented by a switching mode. This time slot assignment is characterized by a mode matrix in which there is not more than a single non-zero entry on each line (row or column) of the matrix. Investigation is confined to decomposition of an n x n traffic matrix by mode matrices with a requirement that the decomposition be 100 percent efficient or, equivalently, that the line(s) in the original traffic matrix whose sum is maximal (called critical line(s)) remain maximal as mode matrices are subtracted throughout the decomposition process. A method of decomposition of an n x n traffic matrix by mode matrices results in a number of steps that is bounded by n(2) - 2n + 2. It is shown that this upper bound exists for an n x n matrix wherein all the lines are maximal (called a quasi doubly stochastic (QDS) matrix) or for an n x n matrix that is completely arbitrary. That is, the fact that no method can exist with a lower upper bound is shown for both QDS and arbitrary matrices, in an elementary and straightforward manner.
The strengths of individual boron fibers extracted from various as-received and thermally fatigued aluminum alloy matrix materials were measured. The results are described in terms of a Weibull distribution, and strengths of composites fabricated from these fibers are calculated in terms of lower and upper bounds. Tests conducted on composite specimens indicated that strengths approaching the upper bounds can be achieved in composites fabricated by normal diffusion bonding techniques. Cyclic temperature changes effectively reduced the strength values toward the lower bounds. It was concluded that this effect resulted from the degradation of the strength of the fiber-matrix bond.
Attitude controllers for spacecraft have been based on the assumption that the bodies being controlled are rigid. Future spacecraft, however, may be quite flexible. Many applications require spinning up/down these vehicles. In this work the minimum time control of these maneuvers is considered. The time-optimal control is shown to possess an important symmetry property. Taking advantage of this property, the necessary and sufficient conditions for optimality are transformed into a system of nonlinear algebraic equations in the control switching times during one half of the maneuver, the maneuver time, and the costates at the mid-maneuver time. These equations can be solved using a homotopy approach. Control spillover measures are introduced and upper bounds on these measures are obtained. For a special case these upper bounds can be expressed in closed form for an infinite dimensional evaluation model. Rotational stiffening effects are ignored in the optimal control analysis. Based on a heuristic argument a simple condition is given which justifies the omission of these nonlinear effects. This condition is validated by numerical simulation.