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NASA NTRS2022

A Detailed Analysis of the Gl 486 Planetary System

Context . The Gl 486 system consists of a very nearby, relatively bright, weakly active M3.5V star at just 8 pc with a warm transiting rocky planet of about 1.3 R ⨁ and 3.0 M ⨁ . It is ideal for both transmission and emission spectroscopy and for testing interior models of telluric planets. Aims . To prepare for future studies, we aim to thoroughly characterise the planetary system with new accurate and precise data collected with state-of-the-art photometers from space and spectrometers and interferometers from the ground. Methods . We collected light curves of seven new transits observed with the CHEOPS space mission and new radial velocities obtained with MAROON-X at the 8.1m Gemini North telescope and CARMENES at the 3.5m Calar Alto telescope, together with previously published spectroscopic and photometric data from the two spectrographs and TESS. We also performed near-infrared interferometric observations with the CHARA Array and new photometric monitoring with a suite of smaller telescopes (AstroLAB, LCOGT, OSN, TJO). This extraordinary and rich data set was the input for our comprehensive analysis. Results . From interferometry, we measure a limb-darkened disc angular size of the star Gl 486 at θ LDD = 0.390 ± 0.018 mas. Together with a corrected Gaia EDR3 parallax, we obtain a stellar radius R * = 0.339 ± 0.015 R ⨀ . We also measure a stellar rotation period at P rot = 49.9 ± 5.5 days, an upper limit to its XUV (5–920 Å) flux informed by new Hubble/STIS data, and, for the first time, a variety of element abundances (Fe, Mg, Si, V, Sr, Zr, Rb) and C/O ratio. Moreover, we imposed restrictive constraints on the presence of additional components, either stellar or sub-stellar, in the system. With the input stellar parameters and the radial-velocity and transit data, we determine the radius and mass of the planet Gl 486 b at R p = 1.343 +0.063 -0.062 R ⨀ and M p = 3.00 +0.13 -0.13 M ⨁ , with relative uncertainties of the planet radius and mass of 4.7% and 4.2%, respectively. From the planet parameters and the stellar element abundances, we infer the most probable models of planet internal structure and composition, which are consistent with a relatively small metallic core with respect to the Earth, a deep silicate mantle, and a thin volatile upper layer. With all these ingredients, we outline prospects for Gl 486 b atmospheric studies, especially with forthcoming James Webb Space Telescope (Webb) observations.

Planetary systems↗
NASA NTRS2024

Spectral Correlation in MODIS Water-Leaving Reflectance Retrieval Uncertainty

Spectral remote sensing reflectance, Rrs(λ) (sr−1), is the fundamental quantity used to derive a host of bio-optical and biogeochemical properties of the water column from satellite ocean color measurements. Estimation of uncertainty in those derived geophysical products is therefore dependent on knowledge of the uncertainty in satellite-retrieved R rs . Furthermore, since the associated algorithms require R rs at multiple spectral bands, the spectral (i.e., band-to-band)error covariance in R rs is needed to accurately estimate the uncertainty in those derived properties. This study establishes a derivative-based approach for propagating instrument random noise, instrument systematic uncertainty, and forward model uncertainty into R rs as retrieved using NASA’s multiple-scattering epsilon (MSEPS) atmospheric correction algorithm, to generate pixel-level error covariance in R rs . The approach is applied to measurements from Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) on the Aqua satellite and verified using Monte Carlo (MC) analysis. We also make use of this full spectral error covariance in R rs to calculate uncertainty in phytoplankton pigment chlorophyll-a concentration (chl a , mg/m 3 ) and diffuse attenuation coefficient of downwelling irradiance at 490 nm (K d (490), m -1 ). Accounting for the error covariance in R rs generally reduces the estimated relative uncertainty in chl a by ∼1-2% (absolute value) in waters with chl a < 0.25 mg/m 3 where the color index (CI) algorithm is used. The reduction is ∼5-10% in waters with chl a > 0.35 mg/m 3 where the blue-green ratio (OCX) algorithm is used. Such reduction can be higher than 30% in some regions. For K d (490), the reduction by error covariance is generally ∼2%, but can be higher than 20% in some regions. The error covariance in R rs is further verified through forward-calculating chl a from MODIS-retrieved and in situ R rs and comparing estimated uncertainty with observed differences. An 8-day global composite of propagated uncertainty shows that the goal of 35% uncertainty in chl a can be achieved over deep ocean waters (chl a ≤ 0.1 mg/m3). While the derivative-based approach generates reasonable error covariance in R rs some assumptions should be updated as our knowledge improves. These include the inter-band error correlation in top-of-atmosphere reflectance, and uncertainties in the calibration of MODIS 869 nm band, in ancillary data, and in the in situ data used for system vicarious calibration.

Ocean color↗
NASA NTRS1995

Control of experimental uncertainties in filtered Rayleigh scattering measurements

Filtered Rayleigh Scattering is a technique which allows for measurement of velocity, temperature, and pressure in unseeded flows, spatially resolved in 2-dimensions. We present an overview of the major components of a Filtered Rayleigh Scattering system. In particular, we develop and discuss a detailed theoretical model along with associated model parameters and related uncertainties. Based on this model, we then present experimental results for ambient room air and for a Mach 2 free jet, including spatially resolved measurements of velocity, temperature, and pressure.

Forkey, Joseph N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

On a Lagrange-Hamilton formalism describing position and momentum uncertainties

According to Heisenberg's uncertainty relation, in quantum mechanics it is not possible to determine, simultaneously, exact values for the position and the momentum of a material system. Calculating the mean value of the Hamiltonian operator with the aid of exact analytic Gaussian wave packet solutions, these uncertainties cause an energy contribution additional to the classical energy of the system. For the harmonic oscillator, e.g., this nonclassical energy represents the ground state energy. It will be shown that this additional energy contribution can be considered as a Hamiltonian function, if it is written in appropriate variables. With the help of the usual Lagrange-Hamilton formalism known from classical particle mechanics, but now considering this new Hamiltonian function, it is possible to obtain the equations of motion for position and momentum uncertainties.

Schuch, Dieter↗
NASA NTRS1995

Uncertainty in cloud optical depth estimates made from satellite radiance measurements

The uncertainty in optical depths retrieved from satellite measurements of visible wavelength radiance at the top of the atmosphere is quantified. Techniques are briefly reviewed for the estimation of optical depth from measurements of radiance, and it is noted that these estimates are always more uncertain at greater optical depths and larger solar zenith angles. The lack of radiometric calibration for visible wavelength imagers on operational satellites dominates the uncertainty retrievals of optical depth. This is true for both single-pixel retrievals and for statistics calculated from a population of individual retrievals. For individual estimates or small samples, sensor discretization can also be significant, but the sensitivity of the retrieval to the specification of the model atmosphere is less important. The relative uncertainty in calibration affects the accuracy with which optical depth distributions measured by different sensors may be quantitatively compared, while the absolute calibration uncertainty, acting through the nonlinear mapping of radiance to optical depth, limits the degree to which distributions measured by the same sensor may be distinguished.

Pincus, Robert↗
NASA NTRS1994

A new approach to the photon localization problem

Since wavelets form a representation of the Poincare group, it is possible to construct a localized superposition of light waves with different frequencies in a Lorentz-covariant manner. This localized wavelet satisfies a Lorentz-invariant uncertainty relation, and also the Lorentz-invariant Parseval's relation. A quantitative analysis is given for the difference between photons and localized waves. It is then shown that this localized entity corresponds to a relativistic photon with a sharply defined momentum in the non-localization limit. Waves are not particles. It is confirmed that the wave-particle duality is subject to the uncertainty principle.

Han, D.↗
NASA NTRS1993

The legacy of uncertainty

An historical account is given of the circumstances whereby the uncertainty relations were introduced into physics by Heisenberg. The criticisms of QED on measurement-theoretical grounds by Landau and Peierls are then discussed, as well as the response to them by Bohr and Rosenfeld. Finally, some examples are given of how the new freedom to advance radical proposals, in part the result of the revolution brought about by 'uncertainty,' was implemented in dealing with the new phenomena encountered in elementary particle physics in the 1930's.

Brown, Laurie M.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Reduction With Multi-Model Monte Carlo for Crystal Plasticity Simulations of Additively Manufactured Metals

In this work, multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed to reduce uncertainty in quantities of interest (QoIs) extracted from crystal plasticity simulations of additively manufactured (AM) metals. A significant concern in AM parts is uncertainty in mechanical properties caused in part by complex microstructures that arise from the AM process. Quantifying uncertainty in microstructure-sensitive behavior using experiments alone is costly, especially when mechanical allowables must be established. Quantitative relationships among microstructure, micromechanical metrics like slip accumulation, crack initiation, and failure are also difficult to capture with limited experiments. Crystal plasticity material models instead enable computational prediction of micromechanical stress and strain fields given a discretized microstructure. However, high-fidelity finely discretized crystal plasticity simulations are computationally expensive, while lower-fidelity models are less accurate and generally biased, making uncertainty quantification and reduction computationally difficult as well. Multi-model Monte Carlo methods leverage correlations between high- and low-fidelity models to produce unbiased estimators for QoIs with reduced uncertainty relative to standard Monte Carlo. Crystal plasticity QoIs considered in this work include yield strength and the mean and extreme values of micromechanical fields that are relevant to crack initiation. Multi-model Monte Carlo estimators are developed for each individual QoI and several groups of QoIs. The results of this work establish relationships among model correlations, sample allocation, and uncertainty reduction for different combinations of QoIs and demonstrate a trend of less uncertainty reduction as QoIs become more sensitive to local microstructure. Limitations from using pilot samples to estimate model covariances and train low-fidelity models are also addressed. The uncertainty reduction achieved by multi-model Monte Carlo is an important step toward using computational mechanics models to predict microstructure-sensitive crack initiation and failure in AM parts.

uncertainty quantification↗
NASA NTRS2013

Uncertainty Quantification of GEOS-5 L-band Radiative Transfer Model Parameters Using Bayesian Inference and SMOS Observations

Uncertainties in L-band (1.4 GHz) radiative transfer modeling (RTM) affect the simulation of brightness temperatures (Tb) over land and the inversion of satellite-observed Tb into soil moisture retrievals. In particular, accurate estimates of the microwave soil roughness, vegetation opacity and scattering albedo for large-scale applications are difficult to obtain from field studies and often lack an uncertainty estimate. Here, a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) simulation method is used to determine satellite-scale estimates of RTM parameters and their posterior uncertainty by minimizing the misfit between long-term averages and standard deviations of simulated and observed Tb at a range of incidence angles, at horizontal and vertical polarization, and for morning and evening overpasses. Tb simulations are generated with the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS-5) and confronted with Tb observations from the Soil Moisture Ocean Salinity (SMOS) mission. The MCMC algorithm suggests that the relative uncertainty of the RTM parameter estimates is typically less than 25 of the maximum a posteriori density (MAP) parameter value. Furthermore, the actual root-mean-square-differences in long-term Tb averages and standard deviations are found consistent with the respective estimated total simulation and observation error standard deviations of m3.1K and s2.4K. It is also shown that the MAP parameter values estimated through MCMC simulation are in close agreement with those obtained with Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO).

MCMC↗
NASA NTRS1999

Multidisciplinary Probabilistic Heat Transfer/Structural Analysis Code Developed: NESTEM

High-Speed Civil Transport (HSCT) engine combustor liners are subjected to complex thermal environments and have to endure these for thousands of hours with assured reliability. In the past, several deterministic analyses have been performed, including detailed heat transfer analyses to obtain thermal profiles and deterministic stress analyses to identify critical locations of high stresses. Actual rig tests also have been performed for segments by simulating these loading situations as closely as possible. However, it is well known that many uncertainties exist in loading (primarily thermal loads due to heat transfer), boundary conditions (end fixity unknowns), and material properties (moduli, thermal-expansion coefficients, and conductivities). The present in-house effort at the NASA Lewis Research Center is directed toward accounting for these in a formal way to assess the performance of liner components under complex and uncertain loading conditions as well as subject to other geometry- and material-related uncertainties.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Independent Calibration Approach for the CLARREO Pathfinder Mission

A CLARREO (Climate Absolute Radiance and Refractivity Observatory) Pathfinder (CPF) mission has been funded to demonstrate retrieval of SI-traceable spectral reflectance with absolute uncertainty <0.3% (k=1). The mission consists of a Reflected Solar spectrometer that will be hosted on the International Space Station (ISS) in the 2023 timeframe and rely on a ratioing radiometer approach to retrieve the unprecedented accuracy. Demonstrating that the accuracy is achieved through an Independent Calibration effort similar in philosophy to the efforts in metrology laboratories relying on multiple, independent measurements to improve credibility for a sensor’s absolute and relative uncertainty error budgets. These measurements use different traceability paths and multiple instrument approaches and CPF’s Independent Calibration will be similar in this regard. The Independent Calibration relies on a pre-launch absolute radiometric calibration obtained from additional testing done after instrument thermal-vacuum (TVAC) testing. The added radiometric calibration is combined with a high fidelity instrument model to provide an on-orbit radiometric calibration independent from the ratioing radiometer approach. The current work describes the post-TVAC testing portion of the CPF Independent Calibration Plan and the Independent Model Development as well as planned on-orbit Evaluation of the Independent Calibration.

CLARREO Pathfinder↗
NASA NTRS2019

Uncertainties for Pre- and Post-Launch Radiometric Calibration of Imaging Spectrometers for Multi-Sensor Applications

An important aspect to using imaging spectrometer data is the radiometric characterization and calibration of the sensors and validation of their data products and doing so with error budgets with known traceability. The radiometric accuracy of a given sensor is important for demonstrating the expected quality of data from the sensor. Known traceability allows data from multiple sensors to be directly comparable as will become more important in the near future with the expected launches of multiple imaging spectrometers from multiple countries, agencies, and commercial entities. The current work describes the state of pre- and post-launch radiometric absolute and relative uncertainties and their role in harmonising on-orbit data. Examples of prelaunch uncertainties based on the calibration of EnMAP and the calibration planned for the CLARREO Pathfinder Mission are presented highlighting recent work in the area of detector-based approaches using tunable laser sources. Post-launch calibration approaches for Pathfinder, EnMAP, CHIME, and DESIS including traditional vicarious calibration methods and the challenges of working with commercial data are presented. The vicarious calibration discussion relies on the example of the recently-available RadCalNet data to describe typical methods and challenges that will be faced when harmonising data between imaging spectrometers as well as with multispectral sensors.

Thome, K.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Uncertainty Analysis of the GeoNEX Top-of-Atmospheric Reflectance Products Generated from the Third-Generation Geostationary Satellite Sensors

The GeoNEX (Geostationary-NASA Earth eXchange) Level-1G products consist of top-of-atmosphere (TOA) bi-directional reflectance factor (BRF) and brightness temperature generated with data streams from the latest geostationary (GEO) sensors including GOES-16/17 ABI, Himawari-8/9 AHI, and GK-2A AMI on a global tiled common grid (60oN-60o and 180oW-180oE) in geographic coordinates. With their 16 spectral bands, 0.01o/0.02o nadir spatial resolution, and 10-minute temporal resolutions, these products provide exciting opportunity to monitor Earth surface processes. However, the unique Sun-Target-Satellite geometry of geostationary sensors demands special attention in analyzing/interpreting these datasets. In this study we present a systematic analysis on the relationship between the radiometric uncertainties of the GeoNEX TOA reflectance and the corresponding solar/satellite zenith angles. We show that the signal-to-noise ratio (SNR) of the BRF are positively proportional to the square roots of the cosine of solar illuminating zenith angles. That is, the BRF data are noisier earlier in the morning or later in the afternoon than in the mid of the day. The cosine of satellite viewing zenith angles do not directly influence the SNR of the TOA BRF. However, they positively regulate the relative importance of the surface component in the TOA BRF. This means that variations in surface reflectance are more difficult to detect for pixels with larger view zenith angles, even when the SNR of the TOA BRF is the same. We are developing metrics to specify such illumination-view geometry related uncertainties in the GeoNEX L1G TOA BRF products so that this key information can be easily accessed by the user community.

Geostationary satellite↗
NASA NTRS2007

Multi-Grid-Cell Validation of Satellite Aerosol Property Retrievals in INTEX/ITCT/ICARTT 2004

Aerosol transport off the US Northeast coast during the Summer 2004 International Consortium for Atmospheric Research on Transport and Transformation (ICARTT) Intercontinental Chemical Transport Experiment (INTEX) and Intercontinental Transport and Chemical Transformation (ITCT) experiments produced a wide range of aerosol types and aerosol optical depth (AOD) values, often with strong horizontal AOD gradients. In these conditions we flew the 14-channel NASA Ames Airborne Tracking Sun photometer (AATS) on a Jetstream 31 (J31) aircraft. Legs flown at low altitude (usually less than 100 m ASL) provided comparisons of AATS AOD spectra to retrievals for 90 grid cells of the satellite radiometers MODIS-Terra, MODIS-Aqua, and MISR, all over the ocean. Characterization of the retrieval environment was aided by using vertical profiles by the J31 (showing aerosol vertical structure) and, on occasion, shipboard measurements of light scattering and absorption. AATS provides AOD at 13 wavelengths lambda from 354 to 2138 nm, spanning the range of aerosol retrieval wavelengths for MODIS over ocean (466-2119 nm) and MISR (446-866 nm). Midvisible AOD on low-altitude J31 legs in satellite grid cells ranged from 0.05 to 0.9, with horizontal gradients often in the range 0.05 to 0.13 per 10 km. When possible, we used ship measurements of humidified aerosol scattering and absorption to estimate AOD below the J31. In these cases, which had J31 altitudes 60-110 m ASL (typical of J31 low-altitude transects), estimated midvisible AOD below the J31 ranged from 0.003 to 0.013, with mean 0.009 and standard deviation 0.003. These values averaged 6 percent of AOD above the 53 1. MISR-AATS comparisons on 29 July 2004 in 8 grid cells (each -17.6 km x 17.6 km) show that MISR versions 15 and 16 captured the AATS-measured AOD gradient (correlation coefficient R2 = 0.87 to 0.92), but the MISR gradient was somewhat weaker than the AATS gradient. The large AOD (midvisible values up to -0.9) and differing gradients in this case produced root-mean-square (RMS) MISR-AATS AOD differences of 0.03 to 0.21 (9 to 31%). MISR V15 Angstrom exponent alpha (= -dlnAOD/dln lambda) was closer to AATS than was MISR V16. MODIS-AATS AOD comparisons on 8 overpasses using 61 grid cells (each nominally 10 km x 10 km) had R2 approximately 0.97, with RMS AOD difference approximately 0.03 (approximately 20%). About 87% of the MODIS AOD retrievals differed from AATS values by less than the predicted MODIS over-ocean uncertainty, Delta tau = plus/minus 0.03 plus/minus 0.05 tau. In contrast to the small MODIS-AATS differences in AOD, MODIS-AATS differences in Angstrom exponent alpha were large: RMS differences for alpha (553, 855 nm) were 0.28 for MODIS-Terra and 0.64 for MODIS-Aqua; RMS differences for alpha (855, 2119 nm) were larger still, 0.61 for MODIS-Terra and 1.14 for MODIS-Aqua. The largest MODIS-AATS Angstrom exponent differences were associated with small AOD values, for which MODIS AOD relative uncertainty is large. Excluding cases with AOD(855 nm) less than 0.1 reduced MODIS-AATS alpha differences substantially. In one grid cell on 21 July 2004, smoke over cloud appeared to impair the MODIS-Aqua cloud mask, resulting in retrieved AODs that significantly exceeded AATS values. Experiments with extending MODIS retrievals into the glint mask yielded MODIS AODs consistently less than AATS AODs, especially at long wavelength, indicating that the current MODIS glint mask limits should not be reduced to the extent tried here. The sign of the AOD differences within the glint mask (MODIS AOD less than AATS AOD) is consistent with ship-measured wind speeds there.

Russell, P. B.↗
NASA NTRS2024

Enhancing Consistency of Microphysical Properties of Precipitation Across the Melting Layer in the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar Data

Stratiform rain and the overlying ice play crucial roles in Earth's climate system. From a microphysics standpoint, water mass flux primarily depends on two variables: particles' concentration and their mass. The Dual-frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) on the Global Precipitation Measurement mission core satellite is a spaceborne instrument capable of estimating these two quantities through dual-wavelength measurements. In this study, we evaluate bulk statistics on the ice particle properties derived from dual-wavelength radar data in relation to the properties of rain underneath. Specifically, we focus on DPR observations over stratiform precipitation, characterized by columns exhibiting a prominent bright band, where the melting layer can be easily detected. Our analysis reveals a large increase in the retrieved mass flux as we transition from the ice to the rain phase in the official DPR product. This observation is in disagreement with our expectation that mass flux should remain relatively stable across the bright band in cold-rain conditions. To address these discrepancies, we propose an alternative retrieval algorithm that ensures a gradual transition of Dm (mean mass-weighted particle melted-equivalent diameter) and the precipitation rate across the melting zone. This approach also helps in estimating bulk ice density above the melting level. These findings demonstrate that DPR observations can not only quantify ice particle content and their size above stratiform rain regions but also estimate bulk density, provided uniform conditions that minimize uncertainties related to partial beam filling.

radar measurements from space↗
NASA NTRS2012

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP): Protocols and Pilot Studies

The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) is a major international effort linking the climate, crop, and economic modeling communities with cutting-edge information technology to produce improved crop and economic models and the next generation of climate impact projections for the agricultural sector. The goals of AgMIP are to improve substantially the characterization of world food security due to climate change and to enhance adaptation capacity in both developing and developed countries. Analyses of the agricultural impacts of climate variability and change require a transdisciplinary effort to consistently link state-of-the-art climate scenarios to crop and economic models. Crop model outputs are aggregated as inputs to regional and global economic models to determine regional vulnerabilities, changes in comparative advantage, price effects, and potential adaptation strategies in the agricultural sector. Climate, Crop Modeling, Economics, and Information Technology Team Protocols are presented to guide coordinated climate, crop modeling, economics, and information technology research activities around the world, along with AgMIP Cross-Cutting Themes that address uncertainty, aggregation and scaling, and the development of Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs) to enable testing of climate change adaptations in the context of other regional and global trends. The organization of research activities by geographic region and specific crops is described, along with project milestones. Pilot results demonstrate AgMIP's role in assessing climate impacts with explicit representation of uncertainties in climate scenarios and simulations using crop and economic models. An intercomparison of wheat model simulations near Obregón, Mexico reveals inter-model differences in yield sensitivity to [CO2] with model uncertainty holding approximately steady as concentrations rise, while uncertainty related to choice of crop model increases with rising temperatures. Wheat model simulations with midcentury climate scenarios project a slight decline in absolute yields that is more sensitive to selection of crop model than to global climate model, emissions scenario, or climate scenario downscaling method. A comparison of regional and national-scale economic simulations finds a large sensitivity of projected yield changes to the simulations' resolved scales. Finally, a global economic model intercomparison example demonstrates that improvements in the understanding of agriculture futures arise from integration of the range of uncertainty in crop, climate, and economic modeling results in multi-model assessments.

Rosenzweig, C.↗
NASA NTRS2023

Interactions Between Thresholds and Spatial Discretizations of Snow: Insights From Estimates of Wolverine Denning Habitat in the Colorado Rocky Mountains

Thresholds can be used to interpret environmental data in a way that is easily communicated and useful for decision making purposes. However, thresholds are often developed for specific data products and time periods, changing findings when the same threshold is applied to datasets or periods with different characteristics. Here, we test the impact of different spatial discretizations of snow on annual estimates of wolverine denning opportunities in the Colorado Rocky Mountains, defined using a snow water equivalent (SWE) threshold (0.20 m) and threshold date (15 May) from previous habitat assessments. Annual potential wolverine denning area (PWDA) was thresholded from a 36-year (1985 – 2020) snow reanalysis model with three different spatial discretizations: 1) 480 m grid cells (D480), 2) 90 m grid cells (D90), and 3) 480 m grid cells with implicit representations of subgrid snow spatial heterogeneity (S480). Relative to the D480 and S480 discretizations, D90 resolved shallower snow deposits on slopes between 3050 and 3350 m elevation, decreasing PWDA by 10%, on average. In years with warmer and/or drier winters, S480 discretizations with subgrid representations of snow heterogeneity increased PWDA, even within grid cells where mean 15 May SWE was less than the SWE threshold. These simulations increased PWDA by upwards of 30% in low snow years, as compared to the D480 and D90 simulations without subgrid snow heterogeneity. Despite PWDA sensitivity to different snow spatial discretizations, PWDA was controlled more by annual variations in winter precipitation and temperature. However, small changes to the SWE threshold (± 0.07 m) and threshold date (± 2 weeks) also affected PWDA by as much as 82%. Across these threshold ranges, PWDA was approximately 18% more sensitive to the SWE threshold than the threshold date. However, the sensitivity to the threshold date was larger in years with late spring snowfall, when PWDA depended on whether modeled SWE was thresholded before, during, or after spring snow accumulation. Our results demonstrate that snow thresholds are useful but may not always provide a complete picture of the annual variability in snow-adapted wildlife denning opportunities. Studies thresholding spatiotemporal datasets could be improved by including 1) information about the fidelity of thresholds across multiple spatial discretizations, and 2) uncertainties related to ranges of realistic thresholds.

Justin M. Pflug↗
NASA NTRS1974

Station coordinates for GEOS-C altimeter calibration and experimentation

Station coordinates are given for the C-band radar GEOS-C altimeter calibration sites at Bermuda, Merritt, Grand Turk, and Wallops Islands. The coordinates were estimated in a multi-arc dynamic solution using GEOS-2 C-band radar and laser ranges with a priori information from the GSFC-1973 station coordinate solution. Comparisons with other solutions suggest a relative uncertainty of a few meters in each coordinate. Data reductions show that station coordinates of this quality can introduce a rapidly changing error into the altitude of a satellite whose orbit is determined from calibration area data alone. In contrast, global tracking constrains the orbit and results in slowly varying satellite position error.

Marsh, J. G.↗