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Results for “uncertainty reduction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2017

Supportability Challenges, Metrics, and Key Decisions for Future Human Spaceflight

Future crewed missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) represent a logistical challenge that is unprecedented in human space flight. Astronauts will travel farther and stay in space for longer than any previous mission, far from timely abort or resupply from Earth. Under these conditions, supportability { defined as the set of system characteristics that influence the logistics and support required to enable safe and effective operations of systems { will be a much more significant driver of space system lifecycle properties than it has been in the past. This paper presents an overview of supportability for future human space flight. The particular challenges of future missions are discussed, with the differences between past, present, and future missions highlighted. The relationship between supportability metrics and mission cost, performance, schedule, and risk is also discussed. A set of pro- posed strategies for managing supportability is presented (including reliability growth, uncertainty reduction, level of repair, commonality, redundancy, In-Space Manufacturing (ISM) (including the use of material recycling and In-Situ Resource Utilization (ISRU) for spares and maintenance items), reduced complexity, and spares inventory decisions such as the use of predeployed or cached spares - along with a discussion of the potential impacts of each of those strategies. References are provided to various sources that describe these supportability metrics and strategies, as well as associated modeling and optimization techniques, in greater detail. Overall, supportability is an emergent system characteristic and a holistic challenge for future system development. System designers and mission planners must carefully consider and balance the supportability metrics and decisions described in this paper in order to enable safe and effective beyond-LEO human space flight.

Owens, Andrew C.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Future crewed exploration missions beyond Low Earth Orbit (LEO) will operate farther from Earth and be logistically isolated for longer than any previous human spaceflight mission. Under these conditions, supportability and reliability willbestronger drivers of mission mass and risk than they have been in the past. Items with high failure rates, or uncertain failure rates, can result in high spares mass requirements and/or high risk on deep space missions. Testing is a critical element of system development which provides the opportunity to identify and resolve design issues, defects, or other failure modes before they cause problems during a mission. Reliability growth programs can reduce failure rates by identifying and remove failure modes via design changes, and long-duration life testing can provide valuable data to reduce failure rate estimate uncertainty and verify (to some level of confidence) that components are as reliable as expected. Testing activities take time and resources, however, and must be incorporated into program plans in order to be fully effective. This paper presents an integrated reliability test plan analysis and optimization methodology, which has been used to inform Advanced Exploration Systems (AES) Life Support Systems (LSS) ground test planning for future missions. The methodology determines the optimal number of test units to purchase and allocation of test time –split between reliability growth and uncertainty reduction testing –across a given set of items in order to minimize spares mass for a given mission under constraints on total test cost and schedule. Model outputs also include expected spares mass after testing and the expected number of modifications or refurbishments during testing, both of which can inform program planning. Discussion of the model, conclusions, and future work are also presented.

Testing↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Optimization of Test Plans for Advanced Exploration Systems Reliability and Supportability

Testing↗

NASA NTRS2021

A model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module and its applications in ecology

Models are an important tool to predict Earth system dynamics. An accurate prediction of future states of ecosystems depends on not only model structures but also parameterizations. Model parameters can be constrained by data assimilation. However, applications of data assimilation to ecology are restricted by highly technical requirements such as model-dependent coding. To alleviate this technical burden, we developed a model-independent data assimilation (MIDA) module. MIDA works in three steps including data preparation, execution of data assimilation, and visualization. The first step prepares prior ranges of parameter values, a defined number of iterations, and directory paths to access files of observations and models. The execution step calibrates parameter values to best fit the observations and estimates the parameter posterior distributions. The final step automatically visualizes the calibration performance and posterior distributions. MIDA is model independent, and modelers can use MIDA for an accurate and efficient data assimilation in a simple and interactive way without modification of their original models. We applied MIDA to four types of ecological models: the data assimilation linked ecosystem carbon (DALEC) model, a surrogate-based energy exascale earth system model: the land component (ELM), nine phenological models and a stand-alone biome ecological strategy simulator (BiomeE). The applications indicate that MIDA can effectively solve data assimilation problems for different ecological models. Additionally, the easy implementation and model-independent feature of MIDA breaks the technical barrier of applications of data–model fusion in ecology. MIDA facilitates the assimilation of various observations into models for uncertainty reduction in ecological modeling and forecasting.

Earth system dynamics↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Wall-Modeled Large-Eddy Simulations of Jet Noise in Flight Conditions

A campaign of wall-modeled large-eddy simulations (WMLES) using structured curvilinear overlapping grids has been performed with the Launch Ascent and Vehicle Aerodynamics (LAVA) computational fluid dynamics (CFD) software to predict jet noise for single-stream axisymmetric round jets. The simulations address the new Prediction Uncertainty Reduction (PUR) technical challenge within the context of NASA’s Commercial Supersonic Technology (CST) project. The focus of this effort is to generate a simulation database for single-stream axisymmetric round nozzles at several operating points both for static (no ambient co-flow), and in-flight (M ͚ =0.3 co-flow) conditions. The operating conditions range in jet exit Mach number from 0.38 to 1.1 with nozzle temperature ratios (NTR) from 0.84 to 2.7. The effect of the flight-stream on far-field noise sound spectra is assessed. Comparison of LES predictions to microphone array measurements demonstrate good agreement within the resolved frequency range. A dip in the predicted low frequency noise spectra for observers between 120° and 145° is observed. This dip is smaller for lower Mach numbers and seems to be correlated to the Mach wave radiation angle. The Mach 1.1 jet shows broadband-shock associated noise. While the onset of BBSN appears to be captured correctly in WMLES, some differences in its magnitude and the prominent frequency at which it occurs persist between the experiment and the simulations. The effect of the outer nozzle boundary layer state created by the co-flow is assessed and shows to be important for accurate comparisons with experiments. A change of 2.5dB between a slip-wall condition and a artificially thickened turbulent boundary layer was observed. In addition, simulations were performed with an alternative nozzle geometry that includes a internal plug and has twice the nozzle exit diameter. These two configurations resulted in very comparable spectra which is consistent with experimental observations. A generally stronger deviation from experimental results is observed for in-flight cases compared to static conditions. The applicability and correct usage of acoustic analogies used for far-field propagation with strong turbulent co-flows needs to be investigated more systematically using canonical problems to improve comparisons between experiments and WMLES. This is especially true for coherent noise sources seen in BBSN.

CST↗

NASA NTRS2021

Trend Detection of Atmospheric Time Series: Incorporating Appropriate Uncertainty Estimates and Handling Extreme Events

This paper is aimed at atmospheric scientists without formal training in statistical theory. Its goal is to, 1) provide a critical review of the rationale for trend analysis of the time series typically encountered in the field of atmospheric chemistry; 2) describe a range of trend-detection methods; and 3) demonstrate effective means of conveying the results to a general audience. Trend detections in atmospheric chemical composition data are often challenged by a variety of sources of uncertainty, which often behave differently to other environmental phenomena such as temperature, precipitation rate, or stream flow, and may require specific methods depending on the science questions to be addressed. Some sources of uncertainty can be explicitly included in the model specification, such as autocorrelation and seasonality, but some inherent uncertainties are difficult to quantify, such as data heterogeneity and measurement uncertainty due to the combined effect of short- and long-term natural variability, instrumental stability, and aggregation of data from sparse sampling frequency. Failure to account for these uncertainties might result in an inappropriate inference of the trends and their estimation errors. On the other hand, the variation in extreme events might be interesting for different scientific questions, for example, the frequency of extremely high surface ozone events and their relevance to human health. In this study we aim to, 1) review trend detection methods for addressing different levels of data complexity in different chemical species; 2) demonstrate that the incorporation of scientifically interpretable covariates can outperform pure numerical curve fitting techniques in terms of uncertainty reduction and improved predictability; 3) illustrate the study of trends based on extreme quantiles that can provide insight beyond standard mean or median based trend estimates; and 4) present an advanced method of quantifying regional trends based on the inter-site correlations of multi-site data. All demonstrations are based on time series of observed trace gases relevant to atmospheric chemistry, but the methods can be applied to other environmental data sets.

Trace gas↗

DOE OSTI2025

White Paper: Research & Development for the Time at Temperature Approach

Recent advancements in nuclear power research are greatly improving reactor safety and performance through the development of Accident Tolerant Fuel (ATF) and Low-Enriched Uranium Plus (LEU+). These innovations can address Departure from Nucleate Boiling (DNB) margins, which are vital for reactor safety. DNB happens when the coolant switches to film boiling, significantly decreasing heat transfer and posing a risk of fuel cladding failure. The U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) employs conservative DNB criteria, which can potentially restrict the operational flexibility and efficiency of reactors. The Time at Temperature (TaT) approach could provide a more detailed and adaptable operational guideline by establishing acceptable time-temperature limits, accounting for the duration a material can withstand elevated temperatures without losing its integrity. This method allows reactors to operate more efficiently and safely, offering additional operational margins, faster power adjustments, and improved fuel cycle economics. TaT criteria allow for higher power levels and more flexible responses to operational transients, particularly applicable for anticipated operational occurrences (AOOs) that result in short durations of post-DNB conditions. It enhances plant operational flexibility, allows faster startup times, and enables quicker power level adjustments, optimizing fuel loading patterns and improving fuel cycle economics. Implementing TaT limits reduces core design constraints, lowers fuel usage, and reduces costs, essential for the long-term sustainability of Light Water Reactors (LWRs). TaT maximizes the use of advanced fuel technologies like ATF and LEU+, further enhancing their economic and environmental benefits. To apply the TaT approach in existing LWRs, collaborative research activities among various DOE-sponsored programs are essential. These efforts should incorporate fuel experiments, physics-based high-fidelity modeling, ML-based surrogate modeling, and optimization techniques. This whitepaper proposes four research and development areas: 1) Investigation of the feasibility of new operations of LWR with updated safety limits; 2) Assessment of reactor operation limits through uncertainty reduction; 3) Evaluation of power uprate in virtual environment; and 4) Lattice and reactor core design for power uprate. Each area includes why this research is in need and a suggested scope of work. These comprehensive research areas ensure practical and beneficial advancements for existing reactors, translating innovations in nuclear fuel and cladding technology into improved reactor performance and safety.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Robust Estimate of Continental-Scale Terrestrial Carbon Sinks Using GOSAT XCO 2 Retrievals

Satellite XCO 2 retrievals could improve the estimates of surface carbon fluxes, but it remains unknown on what scales these estimates are robust. Here, we use the time-dependent Bayesian synthesis top-down method and prior net ecosystem exchanges (NEEs) from 12 terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) to infer the monthly carbon fluxes of 51 land regions with constraints by GOSAT XCO 2 retrievals. We find that the uncertainty (standard deviation of 12 TBMs) reduction rates (uncertainty reduction rate (URR)) decrease significantly at decreasing spatial scales. On the continental-scale, the mean URR is about 57%, and the annual and seasonal cycle estimates of NEE are rather robust. The evaluation shows that the posterior CO 2 concentrations are significantly improved at the continental scale. Our study suggests that the GOSAT XCO 2 can only promise a robust continental-scale NEE estimate and improving the XCO 2 accuracy is an effective way to achieve robust estimates on smaller scales under current spatial coverage.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1989

Multiresolutional models of uncertainty generation and reduction

Kolmogorov's axiomatic principles of the probability theory, are reconsidered in the scope of their applicability to the processes of knowledge acquisition and interpretation. The model of uncertainty generation is modified in order to reflect the reality of engineering problems, particularly in the area of intelligent control. This model implies algorithms of learning which are organized in three groups which reflect the degree of conceptualization of the knowledge the system is dealing with. It is essential that these algorithms are motivated by and consistent with the multiresolutional model of knowledge representation which is reflected in the structure of models and the algorithms of learning.

Meystel, A.↗

DOE OSTI2023

Threefold reduction of modeled uncertainty in direct radiative effects over biomass burning regions by constraining absorbing aerosols

Absorbing aerosols emitted from biomass burning (BB) greatly affect the radiation balance, cloudiness, and circulation over tropical regions. Assessments of these impacts rely heavily on the modeled aerosol absorption from poorly constrained global models and thus exhibit large uncertainties. By combining the AeroCom model ensemble with satellite and in situ observations, we provide constraints on the aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) over the Amazon and Africa. Our approach enables identification of error contributions from emission, lifetime, and MAC (mass absorption coefficient) per model, with MAC and emission dominating the AAOD errors over Amazon and Africa, respectively. In addition to primary emissions, our analysis suggests substantial formation of secondary organic aerosols over the Amazon but not over Africa. Furthermore, we find that differences in direct aerosol radiative effects between models decrease by threefold over the BB source and outflow regions after correcting the identified errors. This highlights the potential to greatly reduce the uncertainty in the most uncertain radiative forcing agent.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2022

A New Search for Low-mass Dark Matter and an Examination and Reduction of the Uncertainty Due to The Photoelectric Absorption Cross Section Using a Cryogenic Silicon Detector With Single-charge Sensitivity

Explore the source record for details and available documents.

Wilson, Matthew James↗

DOE OSTI2022

A New Search for Low-mass Dark Matter and an Examination and Reduction of the Uncertainty due to the Photoelectric Absorption Cross Section using a Cryogenic Silicon Detector with Single-charge Sensitivity

Many astrophysical observations point to the abundant existence of dark matter (DM) in the universe composed of particles beyond the Standard Model. However despite numerous experiments using different techniques, DM particles have yet to be directly observed. The Super Cryogenic Dark Matter Search (SuperCDMS) SNOLAB experiment will employ silicon and germanium crystal detectors operated at temperatures as low as 15~mK to probe DM interactions using phonon and ionization signals. Recently, R\&D; facilities have developed gram-sized high-voltage eV-scale (HVeV) silicon detectors that achieve single-electron-hole-pair resolution. By probing effective DM-electron interactions, these devices can be used for searches of low-mass DM candidates.This dissertation presents a DM search experiment known as HVeV Run~2 that employs a second-generation HVeV detector operated in an above-ground laboratory at Northwestern University (IL, USA). Energy spectra are obtained from a blind analysis with 0.39 and 1.2\,g-days of exposure with the detector biased at 60 and 100\,V, respectively. The 0.93~gram detector achieves a 3\,eV phonon energy resolution, corresponding to a world-leading charge resolution of 3\,\% of a single electron-hole pair for a detector bias of 100\,V. With charge carrier trapping and impact ionization effects incorporated into the DM signal models, the resulting exclusion limits are reported for inelastic DM-electron scattering for DM masses from 0.5--$10^{4}$\,MeV$/c^{2}$; in the mass range from 1.2--50\,eV$/c^{2}$ the limits for dark photon and axion-like particle absorption are reported.Several DM search experiments, including HVeV Run~2, are sensitive to low-mass DM candidates that rely on the temperature-dependent photoelectric absorption cross section of silicon. However discrepancies in the underlying literature data result in dominating systematic uncertainties on the DM exclusion limits. In order to reduce these systematic uncertainties, this dissertation presents a novel method of making a direct, low-temperature measurement of the photoelectric absorption cross section of silicon at energies near the band gap (1.2--2.8\,eV).

Wilson, Matthew James↗

DOE OSTI2020

Conditional Karhunen-Loève expansion for uncertainty quantification and active learning in partial differential equation models

We use a conditional Karhunen-Lo` eve (KL) model to quantify and reduce uncertainty in a stochastic partial differential equation (SPDE) problem with partially-known space-dependent coefficient, Y (x). We assume that a small number of Y (x) measurements are available and model Y (x) with a KL expansion. We achieve reduction in uncertainty by conditioning the KL expansion coefficients on measurements. We consider two approaches for conditioning the KL expansion: In Approach 1, we condition the KL model first and then truncate it. In Approach 2, we first truncate the KL expansion and then condition it. We employ the conditional KL expansion together with Monte Carlo and sparse grid collocation methods to compute the moments of the solution of the SPDE problem. Uncertainty of the problem is further reduced by adaptively selecting additional observation locations using two active learning methods. Method 1 minimizes the variance of the PDE coefficient, while Method 2 minimizes the variance of the solution of the PDE. We demonstrate that conditioning leads to dimension reduction of the KL representation of Y (x). For a linear diffusion SPDE with uncertain log-normal coefficient, we show that Approach 1 provides a more accurate approximation of the conditional log-normal coefficient and solution of the SPDE than Approach 2 for the same number of random dimensions in a conditional KL expansion. Furthermore, Approach 2 provides a good estimate for the number of terms of the truncated KL expansion of the conditional field of Approach 1. Finally, we demonstrate that active learning based on Method 2 is more efficient for uncertainty reduction in the SPDE’s states (i.e., it leads to a larger reduction of the variance) than active learning using Method 2.

Conditioned Karhunen-Lo` eve expanion, machine lea↗

DOE OSTI2021

Development of a framework for sequential Bayesian design of experiments: Application to a pilot-scale solvent-based CO 2 capture process

In this paper, a methodology is developed for sequential design of experiments (SDoE) for process systems and applied to a solvent-based CO 2 capture system. In this approach, the prior knowledge of the system is used to prioritize process data collection at specific operating conditions. These data are then incorporated into a Bayesian inference methodology for updating a stochastic model by refining estimations of its underlying parameters, and the updated model is then used to generate the next set of test runs. Thus, the new knowledge obtained from the data is used to guide subsequent iterations of the experimental runs, ensuring that the overall data collection is maximally informative given that most experimental campaigns, especially at pilot or higher-scale plants, are costly, time-consuming, and resource-limited. The test run objective for this work was to minimize the maximum model prediction uncertainty for key output variables, but the methodology is generic and can be readily applied to other test run objectives. This methodology is applied to an aqueous monoethanolamine (MEA) pilot plant campaign at the National Carbon Capture Center (NCCC) in Wilsonville, Alabama, USA. The SDoE framework was utilized for two iterations, while collecting 18 sets of data representing different process conditions, and this resulted in an overall average reduction in uncertainty of approximately 50% in the prediction of CO 2 capture percentage. Moreover, 11 additional data sets were obtained with variation of absorber packing height for further model validation. This work shows the capability of the SDoE framework to maximize learning given limited resources, allowing for the reduction of model uncertainty, which is of great importance for many applications including reduction of technical risk associated with scale-up and economic analysis.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2020

CheKiPEUQ Intro 2: Harnessing Uncertainties from Data Sets, Bayesian Design of Experiments in Chemical Kinetics**

When choosing experimental conditions, Bayesian statistical tools can predict the experimental choices which will yield the highest information gain. Experimental choices could be temperature, pressure, reaction time, number of measurements, reactor volume, etc.. Three example analyses are presented here, each using the software Chemical Kinetics Parameter Estimation and Uncertainty Quantification (CheKiPEUQ). Information gain is a measure of reduction of uncertainty in a model's parameters. The three chemical system examples presented each illustrate Bayesian Design of Experiments using information gain. In the first chemical example, temperature selection impacts the information gain for the free energy of reaction in a two-component equilibrium reaction. In the second example, temperature and pressure are explored for a competitive adsorption Langmuir replacement reaction system. Finally, the third example is a catalytic membrane reactor which is a culmination of the previous examples. The catalytic membrane reactor has a complex and nonlinear response in the observables which is solved by numerical evaluation. In the three examples, the experimental conditions are treated as design variables for maximizing information gain.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Improved nuclear-structure corrections to the hyperfine splitting of electronic and muonic deuterium

We calculate the nuclear-structure correction to the hyperfine splitting in both electronic and muonic deuterium using interactions from chiral effective field theory. We explore the sensitivity to different parameterizations of the nucleon-nucleon force, study the convergence pattern in the order-by-order chiral expansion, and estimate remaining uncertainties. Our results are consistent with earlier calculations from pionless effective field theory, offering new insights for a robust uncertainty quantification. Thanks to the order-of-magnitude reduction in uncertainty achieved with chiral effective field theory, the two-photon exchange contribution in electronic deuterium agrees with experimental extractions within 0.5σ, in contrast to the 2.6σ discrepancy observed in muonic deuterium. This study lays the groundwork for extending TPE calculations to HFS in heavier atomic systems.

Chiral effective field theory↗

DOE OSTI2025

Neutron matter from local chiral effective field theory interactions at large cutoffs

Neutron matter is an important many-body system that provides valuable constraints for the equation of state (EOS) of neutron stars. Neutron-matter calculations employing chiral effective field theory (EFT) interactions have been extensively used for this purpose. Among the various many-body methods, quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) methods stand out due to their nonperturbative nature and the achievable precision. However, QMC methods require local interactions as input, which leads to the appearance of stronger regulator artifacts compared to nonlocal interactions. To circumvent this, we employ large-cutoff interactions derived within chiral EFT (400 MeV ≤ Λ 𝑐 ≤ 700MeV) for studies of pure neutron matter. These interactions have been adjusted to nucleon-nucleon scattering phase shifts, the triton binding energy, as well as the triton 𝛽-decay half-life. We find that regulator artifacts significantly decrease with increasing cutoff, leading to a significant reduction of uncertainties in the neutron-matter EOS. We discuss implications for the symmetry energy and demonstrate how our new calculations lead to a reduction in the theoretical uncertainty of predicted neutron-star radii by up to 30% for low-mass stars.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

NASA NTRS2007

A Satellite-based Assessment of Trans-Pacific Transport of Pollution Aerosol

It has been well documented that pollution aerosol and dust from East Asia can transport across the North Pacific basin, reaching North America and beyond. Such intercontinental transport extends the impact of aerosols for climate change, air quality, atmospheric chemistry, and ocean biology from local and regional scales to hemispheric and global scales. Long term, measurement-based studies are necessary to adequately assess the implications of these wider impacts. A satellite-based assessment can augment intensive field campaigns by expanding temporal and spatial scales and also serve as constraints for model simulations. Satellite imagers have been providing a wealth of evidence for the intercontinental transport of aerosols for more than two decades. Quantitative assessments, however, became feasible only recently as a result of the much improved measurement accuracy and enhanced new capabilities of satellite sensors. In this study, we generated a 4-year (2002 to 2005) climatology of optical depth for pollution aerosol (defined as a mixture of aerosols from urbanlindustrial pollution and biomass burning in this study) over the North Pacific from MODerate resolution Imaging Spectro-radiometer (MODIS) observations of fine- and coarse-mode aerosol optical depths. The pollution aerosol mass loading and fluxes were then calculated using measurements of the dependence of aerosol mass extinction efficiency on relative humidity and of aerosol vertical distributions from field campaigns and available satellite observations in the region. We estimated that about 18 Tg/year pollution aerosol is exported from East Asia to the northwestern Pacific Ocean, of which about 25% reaches the west coast of North America. The pollution fluxes are largest in spring and smallest in summer. For the period we have examined the strongest export and import of pollution particulates occurred in 2003, due largely to record intense Eurasia wildfires in spring and summer. The overall uncertainty of pollution fluxes is estimated at about 80%. A reduction of uncertainty can be achieved with a better characterization of pollution aerosol through integrating emerging A-Train measurements. Simulations by the Goddard Chemistry Aerosol Radiation and Transport (GOCART) and Global Modeling Initiative (GMI) models agree quite well with the satellite-based estimates of annual and latitudeintegrated fluxes, with larger model-satellite differences in latitudinal variations of fluxes.

Yu, Hongbin↗