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At least 73 records · Page 4

Modeling uncertainty in requirements engineering decision support

One inherent characteristic of requrements engineering is a lack of certainty during this early phase of a project. Nevertheless, decisions about requirements must be made in spite of this uncertainty. Here we describe the context in which we are exploring this, and some initial work to support elicitation of uncertain requirements, and to deal with the combination of such information from multiple stakeholders.

risk analysis↗

Modeling Uncertainty in Time and Fuel Benefit Estimation for TASAR Operational Evaluation

The Traffic Aware Strategic Aircrew Requests concept aims to reduce weather-induced delays, improve route efficiency, and efficiently share route modification options by combining onboard avionics data, Automatic Dependent Surveillance-Broadcast data, and broadband internet data to generate optimal, traffic-compatible trajectory changes based on real-time traffic and weather data. Time and fuel benefits due to use of the Traffic Aware Planner (TAP) software can be estimated by taking the difference in predicted flight time and fuel usage before and after a TAP-inspired trajectory change is completed. Although TAP’s optimization algorithm predicts flight and fuel usage based on the current flight route and weather data, it does not account for possible air traffic controller-initiated trajectory changes, reroutes due to sudden weather changes, or other pilot/controller actions that may occur during flight. This paper introduces an approach for quantifying the uncertainty in estimated time and fuel benefits.

Burris, Joseph↗

Hard Constraints in Optimization Under Uncertainty

This paper proposes a methodology for the analysis and design of systems subject to parametric uncertainty where design requirements are specified via hard inequality constraints. Hard constraints are those that must be satisfied for all parameter realizations within a given uncertainty model. Uncertainty models given by norm-bounded perturbations from a nominal parameter value, i.e., hyper-spheres, and by sets of independently bounded uncertain variables, i.e., hyper-rectangles, are the focus of this paper. These models, which are also quite practical, allow for a rigorous mathematical treatment within the proposed framework. Hard constraint feasibility is determined by sizing the largest uncertainty set for which the design requirements are satisfied. Analytically verifiable assessments of robustness are attained by comparing this set with the actual uncertainty model. Strategies that enable the comparison of the robustness characteristics of competing design alternatives, the description and approximation of the robust design space, and the systematic search for designs with improved robustness are also proposed. Since the problem formulation is generic and the tools derived only require standard optimization algorithms for their implementation, this methodology is applicable to a broad range of engineering problems.

Crespo, Luis G.↗

Closed Form Solution for Minimum Norm Model-Validating Uncertainty

A methodology in which structured uncertainty models are directly constructed from measurement data for use in robust control design of multivariable systems is proposed. The formulation allows a general linear fractional transformation uncertainty structure connections with respect to a given nominal model. Existence conditions are given, and under mild assumptions, a closed-form expression for the smallest norm structured uncertainty that validates the model is given. The uncertainty bound computation is simple and is formulated for both open and closed loop systems.

Lim, Kyong Been↗

TPSAS-NF1676L-12725-DND

Uncertainty analysis and robust design - increase confidence and consistency in aerospace vehicle safety predictions by developing improved methods for quantifying and managing uncertainty. Quantifying: uncertainty modeling (model uncertainty based on experimental data, simulations and/or expert opinion) and uncertainty propagation (given uncertainty models of a system’s inputs, how to propagate them through system models, to efficiently evaluate the corresponding system’s outputs?). Managing: robust design (generate designs that robustly accommodate uncertainty) and uncertainty decomposition (identify uncertainties that contribute the most to performance degradation and determine the parameters that should (not) be modeled as uncertain).

Sean P Kenny↗

Microgravity isolation system design: A case study

Many acceleration-sensitive, microgravity science experiments will require active vibration isolation from manned orbiters on which they will be mounted. The isolation problem, especially in the case of a tethered payload, is a complex three-dimensional one that is best suited to modern-control design methods. In this paper, extended H(sub 2) synthesis is used to design an active isolator (i.e., controller) for a realistic single-input-multiple-output (SIMO) microgravity vibration isolation problem. Complex mu-analysis methods are used to analyze the isolation system with respect to sensor, actuator, and umbilical uncertainties. The paper fully discusses the design process employed and the insights gained. This design case study provides a practical approach for isolation problems of greater complexity. Issues addressed include a physically intuitive state-space description of the system, disturbance and noise filters, filters for frequency weighting, and uncertainty models. The controlled system satisfies all the performance specifications and is robust with respect to model uncertainties.

Hampton, R. D.↗

Visualizing 2D Probability Distributions from Satellite Image-Derived Data

Creating maps of biophysical and geophysical variables using Earth Observing System (EOS) satellite image data is an important component of Earth science. These 2D maps have a single value at every location and standard techniques are used to visualize them. Current tools fall short, however, when it is necessary to describe a distribution of values at each location. Distributions may represent a frequency of occurrence over time, frequency of occurrence from multiple runs of an ensemble forecast or possible values from an uncertainty model. 'Distribution data sets' are described, then a case study is presented to visualize such 2D distributions. Distribution data sets are different from multivariate data sets in the sense that the values are for a single variable instead of multiple variables. Our case study data consists of multiple realizations of percent forest cover, generated using a geostatistical technique that combines ground measurements and satellite imagery to model uncertainty about forest cover. We present several approaches for analyzing and visualizing such data sets. The first is a pixel-wise analysis of the probability density functions for the 2D image while the second is an analysis of features identified within the image. Such pixel-wise and feature-wise views will give Earth scientists a more complete understanding of distribution data sets.

Kao, David↗

NASA Engineering and Safety Center Technical Bulletin No. 22-04: Uncertainty Quantification of Reduced Order Structural Dynamic Models

Uncertainty quantification (UQ) provides statistical bounds on prediction accuracy based on finite element model (FEM) uncertainty. An alternate method for UQ, called the Hybrid Parametric Variation (HPV) combines a parametric variation of the Hurty/Craig-Bampton (HCB) fixed-interface (FI) modal frequencies with a nonparametric variation (NPV) method. This provides a UQ method that can be traced to test data, which can be updated as additional data and improved correlated models become available.

Uncertainty Quantification↗