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At least 73 records · Page 4

MSD CoP Webinar: Energy and AI

Context: This webinar was hosted by the MultiSector Dynamics Community of Practice (MSD CoP; https://multisectordynamics.org). Abstract: Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This webinar will provide an overview of the interactions between energy and AI and highlight two MSD projects exploring the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI. Presenters : Dr. Casey Burleyson (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Dr. Stephanie Morris (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory); Kendall Mongird (Pacific Northwest National Laboratory) Moderator: Patrick M. Reed (MSD CoP Facilitation Team) This webinar was held on: June 16th, 2025 from 1-2 PM EST.

Artificial Intelligence↗

Energy and AI: Evaluating Future Grid and Water Stress Due to Data Centers

Projections of the need for new data centers to support Artificial Intelligence (AI) are large but highly uncertain. Recent projections indicate up to a 15% annual growth rate in data center electricity demand within the next 5-10 years. Given that most electric utilities are required to have a reserve margin of roughly the same magnitude as the projected growth in demand, these new data center loads could soon threaten resource adequacy and reliability unless data centers build their own generation, interruptible loads are negotiated, commensurate new capacity and/or transmission is built, or some combination of these options. Similarly, depending on the cooling technology and geographic location of new data centers, they could threaten water adequacy in water scarce regions. This presentation highlights the grid and water implications of new data centers to support AI.

Mongird, Kendall (ORCID:0000000328077088)↗

Electrostatic dust remediation for future exploration of the Moon

Dust accumulation is one of the critical issues that must be mitigated on in-situ lunar explorations because an in-situ probe is exposed to small dust particles, which are easily attached to it, during its operations. The Lunar Dust Science Definition Team is organized by the Jet Propulsion Lab/California Institute of Technology through NASA’s Biological and Physical Sciences Division to define key science questions and assess dust remediation techniques. Here, we assess three electrostatic remediation technology concepts: electrostatic dust shield; surface electrostatically collecting dust, later called attractive surface; and electron beam — plasma jet inducing electrostatic dust lofting from a surface. We qualitatively investigate their maturity by defining six operational factors: Time and location; Amount of dust removal; Contamination of target surfaces; Operation duration; Installation; and Safety. In addition to these techniques, we discuss a supporting system that loads dust particles onto a test article to examine dust removal efficiency. Here, the results show that further development increases the maturity of all the technologies. While laboratory and theoretical demonstrations reported whether each technology robustly work on the Moon, which hosts a complex, heterogeneous dust environment, we find that it is still uncertain if this is the case because none has been tested in the lunar environment. Particularly, operation duration and safety are critical to be addressed further on both laboratory and spaceflight scales.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Tri-level hybrid interval-stochastic optimal scheduling for flexible residential loads under GAN-assisted multiple uncertainties

Various building loads, such as heating, ventilation, and air conditioners (HVACs), electric water heaters (EWHs), and electric vehicles (EVs), can introduce opportunities for improving the flexibility of electricity consumption while satisfying the needs of building owners as well as benefiting the resilience of distribution system. To utilize such flexibility, a tri-level distribution market framework is established, including residential consumers, load aggregators (LAs), and the distribution system operator (DSO). In this work, the uncertainties from all three levels are considered. The random consumption behavior at the consumer level is modeled as a Gaussian noise that is also aggregated and transmitted to the LA level. The weather temperature in the LA level is forecasted as an interval, and the photovoltaic (PV) power in the market-clearing level is modeled by a set of power scenarios generated by Generative Adversarial Networks (GANs). Then, a hybrid interval-stochastic programming is proposed to transform the uncertain problems in the first two levels into deterministic ones. For real-time implementations, a rolling horizon optimization (RHO) scheme is employed to continuously optimize the power consumption based on the latest operating information. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 69-bus system validate the effectiveness of the proposed uncertainty modeling strategies and the RHO scheme.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Energy innovation in the US buildings sector: Setting the stage and mapping the future

Jared Langevin is a staff scientist at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, where he leads modeling of US buildings sector innovation and its implications for energy demand, consumer costs, and the power grid. Eric Wilson is a senior research engineer in the Building Technologies and Sciences Center at the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Much of his 15-year career at NREL has revolved around modeling and analysis of the US building stock. Jared and Eric co-led the development of a National Blueprint for buildings sector innovation while serving as advisors to the US Department of Energy’s Deputy Assistant Secretary for Buildings and Industry.

Langevin, Jared↗

Distribution Grid Impacts of Community Solar [Slides]

Community solar (CS) projects often face uncertain interconnection costs and fees associated with distribution grid infrastructure upgrades required to connect the project. These costs can determine the economic viability of a CS project, but they are difficult to assess. Cost uncertainty can discourage new projects and prevent communities from accessing the benefits of community solar projects. At the same time, CS deployment strategies hold potential to defer or avoid some distribution costs due to new loads. To mitigate CS interconnection costs, it is important to find least-cost combinations of distribution system infrastructure solutions (transformer upgrades, reconductoring, voltage regulators, storage), and to understand how location of CS projects within a feeder impact distribution grid upgrade costs. This study aims to quantify CS impacts on the distribution grid and provide policy and regulatory insights and CS deployment strategies to address them. It is the first analysis that has systematically studied the technical impacts of community solar projects on a wide range of distribution feeders using state-of-the-art optimization and power flow tools. The analysis employs Berkeley Lab’s novel Least-cost Optimal Distribution Grid Expansion (LODGE) model, a deterministic version of the REPAIR model, that optimally upgrades hundreds or even thousands of distribution circuits or feeders. This is the first application of the LODGE model. LODGE finds the least-cost portfolio of traditional distribution system upgrades to integrate CS in combination with alternative solutions, such as utility-owned storage and downsizing CS capacity. Working with a set of least-cost solutions per feeder allows us to benchmark, compare and find techno-economic trends in CS interconnection.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics-Informed Evolutionary Strategy Based Control for Mitigating Delayed Voltage Recovery

Here, in this work we propose a novel data-driven, real-time power system voltage stability control method based on the physics-informed guided meta evolutionary strategy (ES). The main objective is to quickly provide an adaptive control strategy to secure system voltage stability. The problem is challenging due to the high-dimensional feature of the power system model and the fast-changing and uncertain nature of power system operation scenarios. To this end, a model-free and derivative-free guided ES method is applied. The method is further combined with a meta-learning strategy to make the learnt control policy automatically adapted to unseen operation conditions and fault scenarios, which is highly desired for real-time emergency control. Last but not least, physical knowledge is embedded in the above method through a trainable action mask technique to rule out unnecessary load shedding actions for better learning and control performance. Case studies on the IEEE 300-bus system and comparisons with other state-of-the-art benchmark methods verify the superiority of the proposed physics-informed guided meta ES method in realizing fast and adaptive power system voltage stability control.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model-Free Probabilistic Forecasting of Nodal Voltages in Distribution Systems

As the penetration of distributed energy resources (DERs) into distribution systems increases, so does the interest in forecasting relevant system variables to help mitigate the associated challenges. One such challenge is the more frequent occurrence of excessive voltages in distribution systems with higher shares of DERs. Accurate and reliable estimates together with forecasts of system states (i.e., nodal voltages) will therefore play a key role in improving the utilization of these variable and uncertain sources while mitigating potential operational risks. Whilst recent literature has explored machine learning (ML) methods for voltage estimation and their extrapolation for a short-time period into the future, few have taken uncertainty quantification into account, and these methods have not yet been translated into operations. This paper discusses the advantages offered by probabilistic voltage forecasts and proposes a non-parametric Bayesian method suitable for forecasting nodal voltages at short-term time horizons while accounting for uncertainties in load and distributed photovoltaic (PV) generation. We demonstrate the value of the proposed Gaussian process (GP) model for a case study using historical forecasts and observation data.

distribution system↗

Upper troposphere dust belt formation processes vary seasonally and spatially in the Northern Hemisphere

Dust aerosols impact global energy balance substantially by acting as efficient ice nuclei to alter cold cloud properties. However, the estimate of dust indirect effect remains uncertain due to simulating dust distributions poorly and lacking reliable dust observations, especially in the upper-troposphere. Here, we characterize and understand upper-troposphere dust sources and transport with an improved dust dataset derived from A-train satellite lidar and radar measurements and an air parcel trajectory model. The distinct upper-troposphere dust belt over the northern hemisphere has seasonally varying base and top heights of 3.65 ± 2.84 and 8.35 ± 1.50 km above mean sea level and its column loading is strongest during spring (March-April-May). The out-of-phase annual cycles of mid-level dust concentration and westerly wind over source regions control the seasonal upper-tropospheric dust loading variations. African deserts contribute the most (46.3%) to the upper-troposphere dust belt in spring and the synoptic trough is the leading (49%) dust lifting mechanism.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Power System Resilience Enhancement in Typhoons Using a Three-Stage Day-Ahead Unit Commitment

In this work, we propose a three-stage resilient unit commitment model which considers uncertain typhoon paths and line outages to improve the power system resilience against typhoon events. The proposed solution coordinates resources in response to the worst-case scenario for each possible typhoon path. The optimal decision is based on the characterization of the power system schedule into three stages of preventive control, emergency control, and restoration. Preventive control is performed before the typhoon occurs by quickly adjusting the three-stage resilient unit commitment schedule; emergency control is conducted during the typhoon by shedding local loads to meet the power balance, while other control strategies are assumed to be unavailable due to possible interruptions in the communication system; restoration is realized after the typhoon, when resources are optimally dispatched to repair the outages of critical devices and recover the normal operation state of the power system quickly. Considering the typhoon path uncertainty, we have introduced a stochastic model for possible typhoon paths where all possible affected lines along each typhoon path are assumed to be on outage during the typhoon. Accordingly, we explore the strategy for co-optimizing the three stages in unit commitment. The proposed model is tested on the IEEE 118-bus system and the real-world provincial system to verify its effectiveness.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Reducing heat load density with asymmetric and inclined double-crystal monochromators: principles and requirements revisited

Asymmetric double-crystal monochromators (aDCMs) and inclined DCMs (iDCMs) can significantly expand the X-ray beam footprint and consequently reduce the heat load density and gradient. Based on rigorous dynamical theory calculations, the major principles and properties of aDCMs and iDCMs are presented to guide their design and development, particularly for fourth-generation synchrotrons. In addition to the large beam footprint, aDCMs have very large bandwidths (up to ∼10 eV) and angular acceptance, but the narrow angular acceptance of the second crystal requires precise control of the relative orientations and strains. Based on Fourier coupled-wave diffraction theory calculations, it is rigorously proved that the iDCM has almost the same properties as the conventional symmetric DCM, including the efficiency, angular acceptance, bandwidth, tuning energy range and sensitivity to misalignment. The exception is that, for the extremely inclined geometry that can achieve very large footprint expansion, the iDCM has (beneficially) a larger bandwidth and wider angular acceptance. Inclined diffraction has the `rho-kick effect' that can be cancelled by the second reflection of the iDCM (even with misalignment), except that inhomogeneous strains may cause non-uniform rho-kick angles. At present, fabrication/mounting-induced strains pose low risk since they can be controlled to <0.5 µrad over large areas. The only uncertain challenge is the thermally induced strains, yet it is estimated that these strains are naturally lowered by the large footprint and may be further mitigated by optimized cryogenic cooling to the 1–2 µrad level. Overall, aDCMs and iDCMs have more stringent requirements than normal DCMs, but they are feasible schemes in practice.

asymmetric monochromator↗

A Machine Learning-based Reliability Evaluation Model for Integrated Power-Gas Systems

This article proposes a hybrid machine learning method for the reliability evaluation of integrated power-gas systems (IPGS) under the uncertain component failure probability distributions. The Random Forest (RF) method is designed to select important features to solve the insufficient quantity of data and the curse of dimensionality problems. The Extreme Gradient Boosting (XGBoost) regression algorithm is developed to quantify the relationship between the uncertain parameters and reliability metrics. Moreover, a ten-fold cross-validation method is employed to further improve the accuracy of the regression model. Simulation results on three test systems show that the proposed method can achieve high accuracy for the reliability evaluation.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

An Iterative Response-Surface-Based Approach for Chance-Constrained AC Optimal Power Flow Considering Dependent Uncertainty

A modern power system is characterized by a stochastic variation of the loads and an increasing penetration of renewable energy generation, which results in large uncertainties in its states. These uncertainties bring formidable challenges to the power system planning and operation process. To address these challenges, we propose a cost-effective, iterative response-surface-based approach for the chance-constrained AC optimal power-flow problem that aims to ensure the secure operation of the power systems considering dependent uncertainties. Starting from a stochastic-sampling-based framework, we first utilize the copula theory to simulate the dependence among multivariate uncertain inputs. Then, to reduce the prohibitive computational time required in the traditional Monte-Carlo method, we propose, instead of using the original complicated power-system model, to rely on a polynomial-chaos-based response surface. This response surface allows us to efficiently evaluate the time-consuming power-system model at arbitrary distributed sampled values with a negligible computational cost. This further enables us to efficiently conduct an online stochastic testing for the system states that not only screens out the statistical active constraints, but also assists in a better design of the tightened bounds without using any Gaussian or symmetric assumption. Finally, an iterative procedure is executed to fine-tune the optimal solution that better satisfies a predefined probability. The simulations conducted in multiple test systems demonstrate the excellent performance of the proposed method.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

Physics and technology considerations for the deuterium–tritium fuel cycle and conditions for tritium fuel self sufficiency

The tritium aspects of the DT fuel cycle embody some of the most challenging feasibility and attractiveness issues in the development of fusion systems. The review and analyses in this paper provide important information to understand and quantify these challenges and to define the phase space of plasma physics and fusion technology parameters and features that must guide a serious R&D in the world fusion program. We focus in particular on components, issues and R&D necessary to satisfy three 'principal requirements': (1) achieving tritium self-sufficiency within the fusion system, (2) providing a tritium inventory for the initial start-up of a fusion facility, and (3) managing the safety and biological hazards of tritium. A primary conclusion is that the physics and technology state-of-the-art will not enable DEMO and future power plants to satisfy these principal requirements. We quantify goals and define specific areas and ideas for physics and technology R&D to meet these requirements. A powerful fuel cycle dynamics model was developed to calculate time-dependent tritium inventories and flow rates in all parts and components of the fuel cycle for different ranges of parameters and physics and technology conditions. Dynamics modeling analyses show that the key parameters affecting tritium inventories, tritium start-up inventory, and tritium self-sufficiency are the tritium burn fraction in the plasma (f b ), fueling efficiency (η f ), processing time of plasma exhaust in the inner fuel cycle (t p ), reactor availability factor (AF), reserve time (tr) which determines the reserve tritium inventory needed in the storage system in order to keep the plant operational for time t r in case of any malfunction of any part of the tritium processing system, and the doubling time (t d ). Results show that η f f b > 2% and processing time of 1–4 h are required to achieve tritium self-sufficiency with reasonable confidence. For η f f b = 2% and processing time of 4 h, the tritium start-up inventory required for a 3 GW fusion reactor is ~11 kg, while it is <5 kg if η f f b = 5% and the processing time is 1 h. To achieve these stringent requirements, a serious R&D program in physics and technology is necessary. The EU-DEMO direct internal recycling concept that carries fuel directly from the plasma exhaust gas to the fueling systems without going through the isotope separation system reduces the overall processing time and tritium inventories and has positive effects on the required tritium breeding ratio (TBR R ). A significant finding is the strong dependence of tritium self-sufficiency on the reactor availability factor. Simulations show that tritium self-sufficiency is: impossible if AF < 10% for any η f f b , possible if AF > 30% and 1% ≤ η f f b ≤ 2%, and achievable with reasonable confidence if AF > 50% and η f f b > 2%. These results are of particular concern in light of the low availability factor predicted for the near-term plasma-based experimental facilities (e.g. FNSF, VNS, CTF), and can have repercussions on tritium economy in DEMO reactors as well, unless significant advancements in RAMI are made. There is a linear dependency between the tritium start-up inventory and the fusion power. The required tritium start-up inventory for a fusion facility of 100 MW fusion power is as small as 1 kg. Since fusion power plants will have large powers for better economics, it is important to maintain a 'reserve' tritium inventory in the tritium storage system to continue to fuel the plasma and avoid plant shutdown in case of malfunctions of some parts of the tritium processing lines. But our results show that a reserve time as short as 24 h leads to unacceptable reserve and start-up inventory requirements. Therefore, high reliability and fast maintainability of all components in the fuel cycle are necessary in order to avoid the need for storing reserve tritium inventory sufficient for continued fusion facility operation for more than a few hours. The physics aspects of plasma fueling, tritium burn fraction, and particle and power exhaust are highly interrelated and complex, and predictions for DEMO and power reactors are highly uncertain because of lack of experiments with burning plasma. Fueling by pellet injection on the high field side of tokamak has evolved to be the preferred method to fuel a burning plasma. Extrapolation from the DIII-D penetration scaling shows fueling efficiency expected in DEMO to be <25%, but such extrapolations are highly uncertain. The fueling efficiency of gas in a reactor relevant regime is expected to be extremely poor and not very useful for getting tritium into the core plasma efficiently. Gas fueling will nonetheless be useful for feedback control of the divertor operating parameters. Extensive modeling has been carried out to predict burn fraction, fueling requirements, and fueling efficiency for ITER, DEMO, and beyond. The fueling rate required to operate Q = 10 ITER plasmas in order to provide the required core fueling, helium exhaust and radiative divertor plasma conditions for acceptable divertor power loads was calculated. If this fueling is performed with a 50–50 DT mix, the tritium burn fraction in ITER would be ~0.36%, which is too low to satisfy the self-sufficiency conditions derived from the dynamics modeling for fusion reactors. Extrapolation to DEMO using this approach would also yield similarly low burn fraction. Extensive analysis presented shows that specific features of edge neutral dynamics in ITER and fusion reactors, which are different from present experiments, open possibilities for optimization of tritium fueling and thus to improve the burn fraction. Using only tritium in pellet fueling of the plasma core, and only deuterium for edge density, divertor power load and ELM control results in significant increase of the burn fraction to 1.8–3.6%. These estimates are performed with physics models whose results cannot be fully validated for ITER and DEMO plasma conditions since these cannot be achieved in present tokamak experiments. Thus, several uncertainties remain regarding particle transport and scenario requirements in ITER and DEMO. The safety standard requirements for protection of the public and release guidelines for tritium have been reviewed. General safety approaches including minimizing tritium inventories, reducing tritium permeation through materials, and decontaminating material for waste disposal have been suggested.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

A review on the integration of probabilistic solar forecasting in power systems

As one of the fastest growing renewable energy sources, the integration of solar power poses great challenges to power systems due to its variable and uncertain nature. As an effective approach to promote the integration of solar power in power systems, the value of probabilistic forecasts is being increasingly recognized in the recent decade. While the current use of probabilistic forecasts in power systems is limited, enormous amount of research has been conducted to promote the adoption of probabilistic forecasts and many methods have been proposed. This paper gives a comprehensive review on how probabilistic solar forecasts are utilized in power systems to address the challenges. Potential methods to deal with uncertainties in power systems are summarized, such as probabilistic load flow models, stochastic optimization, robust optimization, and chance constraints. Additionally, specific areas where these methods can be applied are discussed and state-of-the-art studies are summarized.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Optimization-based calibration of hydrodynamic drag coefficients for a semisubmersible platform using experimental data of an irregular sea state

For the simulation of the coupled dynamic response of floating offshore wind turbines, it is crucial to calibrate the hydrodynamic damping with experimental data. The aim of this work is to find a set of hydrodynamic drag coefficients for the semisubmersible platform of the Offshore Code Comparison Collaboration, Continuation, with Correlation and unCertainity (OC6) project which provides suitable results for an irregular sea state. Due to the complex interaction of several degrees of freedom (DOF), it is common to calibrate drag coefficients with the time series of decay tests. However, applying these drag coefficients for the simulation of an irregular sea state results in misprediction of the motions. By using numerical optimization, it is possible to calibrate multiple drag coefficients simultaneously and effectively, while also considering several DOF. This work considers time series of structural displacements from wave tank tests of the OC6 project and from simulations of the same load cases in OpenFAST. Results are transferred into the frequency domain and the deviation between power spectral densities of surge, pitch and heave from experiment and numerical simulation is used as an objective function to obtain the best fitting drag coefficients. This novel numerical optimization approach enables finding one set of drag coefficients for different load cases, which is a major improvement compared to decay-test-tuned drag coefficients.

42 ENGINEERING↗

High-frequency Data Integration for Landscape Model Calibration of Carbon Fluxes Across Diverse Tidal Marshes

Terrestrial Aquatic Interfaces (TAIs), and tidal wetlands in particular, store large amounts of carbon yet are not well represented in Earth System Models (ESMs). Predictions of carbon cycling and greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in tidal wetlands are highly uncertain. Eddy covariance (EC) towers provide ecosystem-scale GHG flux data at a temporal resolution (every 30min) that is helpful for parameterizing and improving mechanistic realism in ESMs. We propose to use a network of eddy covariance towers and standardized ancillary data streams, along with mesocosm experiments and statistical analyses, across diverse tidal wetlands of North America to develop and improve biogeochemical modeling at the TAI. Our overarching objective is to improve understanding and process-based modeling of gross primary productivity (GPP) and CH4 emission responses, both non-linear and asynchronous, to stressors including plant inundation, disturbance, salinity and nitrogen loading.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Achieving high rate performance in hybrid pristine-recycled cathodes using model-informed electrode designs

Direct recycling lithium-ion battery cathodes, a process that retains the engineered oxide structures from end-of-life materials, presents a cost-effective and energy-efficient alternative to other battery recycling methods. However, while direct-recycled cathodes have demonstrated performance comparable to that of pristine materials at low cycling rates, their high-rate performance remains uncertain. Morphology changes in cathode particles, a main mode of degradation, directly impact rate performance by limiting surface kinetics and solid-phase diffusion. If direct recycling processes do not sufficiently restore pristine-like morphologies, the recycled materials may retain structural defects that hinder high-rate performance. The present work uses a physics-based pseudo-2D model to simulate hybrid electrodes with pristine and artificially “aged/recycled” NMC materials to investigate potential impacts of incorporating performance-limited aged cathode materials into cells. The study highlights how differences in transport and kinetic properties can influence rate capabilities in mixed electrodes — particularly in high-loading cells in high-demand applications. However, model results also reveal a possible mitigation strategy via dual-layer electrode architectures with lower-performing materials positioned near the current collector. Simulations of 4.0 mAh cm −2 cells cycled at 4C using a dual-layer architecture provided approximately 5%–30% more capacity in constant-current protocols compared to homogeneously blended electrode architectures with the same loadings and mixed-material compositions. These findings highlight the importance of strategic electrode design in minimizing potential performance losses and facilitating the integration of recycled materials into high-performance batteries, advancing sustainable and cost-effective battery manufacturing.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗