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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2021

Manifold Sampling for Optimizing Nonsmooth Nonconvex Compositions

Here we propose a manifold sampling algorithm for minimizing a nonsmooth composition $f= h\circ F$, where we assume $h$ is nonsmooth and may be inexpensively computed in closed form and $F$ is smooth but its Jacobian may not be available. We additionally assume that the composition $h\circ F$ defines a continuous selection. Manifold sampling algorithms can be classified as model-based derivative-free methods, in that models of $F$ are combined with particularly sampled information about $h$ to yield local models for use within a trust-region framework. We demonstrate that cluster points of the sequence of iterates generated by the manifold sampling algorithm are Clarke stationary. We consider the tractability of three particular subproblems generated by the manifold sampling algorithm and the extent to which inexact solutions to these subproblems may be tolerated. Numerical results demonstrate that manifold sampling as a derivative-free algorithm is competitive with state-of-the-art algorithms for nonsmooth optimization that utilize first-order information about $f$.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Least H 2 norm updating of quadratic interpolation models for derivative-free trust-region algorithms

One particular class of derivative-free optimization algorithms is trust-region algorithms based on quadratic models given by the under-determined interpolation. Different techniques in updating the quadratic model from iteration to iteration will give different interpolation models. We propose a new way to update the quadratic model by minimizing the $H^{2}$ norm of the difference between neighboring quadratic models. The motivation for applying the $H^{2}$ norm is given. The theoretical properties of our new updating technique are also presented. We propose the projection in the sense of $H^{2}$ norm and the interpolation error analysis of our model function. We obtain the coefficients of the quadratic model function using the Karush–Kuhn–Tucker (KKT) conditions. Numerical results show the advantages of our model on the test set considered, and the derivative-free algorithms based on our least $H^{2}$ norm updating quadratic model functions can solve test problems with fewer function evaluations than the algorithm based on the least Frobenius norm updating model and the other compared methods.

derivative-free optimization↗
NASA NTRS2003

Subauditory Speech Recognition based on EMG/EPG Signals

Sub-vocal electromyogram/electro palatogram (EMG/EPG) signal classification is demonstrated as a method for silent speech recognition. Recorded electrode signals from the larynx and sublingual areas below the jaw are noise filtered and transformed into features using complex dual quad tree wavelet transforms. Feature sets for six sub-vocally pronounced words are trained using a trust region scaled conjugate gradient neural network. Real time signals for previously unseen patterns are classified into categories suitable for primitive control of graphic objects. Feature construction, recognition accuracy and an approach for extension of the technique to a variety of real world application areas are presented.

Jorgensen, Charles↗
NASA NTRS2020

AERoBOND Project Summary

Under NASA’s Convergent Aeronautics Solutions (CAS) project, the Adhesive-Free Bonding of Complex Composites (AERoBOND) project investigated off-stoichiometric epoxy polymers for fast, reliable assembly of epoxy matrix composite structures. The project goal was to demonstrate feasibility of the AERoBOND joining method by demonstrating mechanical properties greater than 80% of conventional co-cured materials while reducing structure weight by 1%. The project consisted of three convergent research areas: material and process development, systems analysis, and material and process modeling. Material and process development was the largest component of AERoBOND with approximately 6 FTE and 1WYE of support to formulate and characterize new resins, prepare carbon fiber prepregs, fabricate laminates, measure mechanical properties, analyze failure results, and select material and process improvements. The systems analysis activity estimated the potential reduction in part count and aircraft weight by comparing models of composite wing boxes with no fasteners (co-cured structure), fasteners in major joints (co-cured stringers), and fasteners in all joints. The materials and process modeling activity included a molecular model of the AERoBOND materials system to predict mechanical properties of resins with offset stoichiometry and a process model to predict the effect of resin formulation and processing conditions on the extent of mixing and degree of cure in a finished joint. As the number of airline passenger trips doubles in the next 20 years (IATA/Tourism Economics Air Passenger Forecasts, April 2019), the increased demand for new commercial aircraft is now the single greatest technical challenge to the airframe manufacturing industry. To meet efficiency requirements, new aircraft must be fabricated primarily from high performance structural composites, but manufacturing processes are inherently slow with the largest bottleneck attributed to assembly and installation of fasteners (NASA/TM–2019-220428). Manufactures of commercial transport aircraft are compelled to install more than 100,000 redundant fasteners into bonded joints to prevent failures due to unpredictable weak bonds. In structural adhesive bonds, the interface between adherend and adhesive is nearly two-dimensional making it susceptible to minute quantities of contamination, which can cause weak bonds. Currently, bond strength assessment is only possible through destructive testing (i.e., breaking the joint). For these reasons, regulatory organizations such as the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) often require redundant load paths in secondary-bonded, primary-structures to alleviate concerns with bond performance. The AERoBOND process enables reflow of matrix resin during assembly to eliminate the material discontinuity at the interface, thereby eliminating the dependence of mechanical performance on interfacial adhesion. The AERoBOND joint is equivalent to the interlaminar region obtained during a co-cure process, so joint performance depends on the cohesive properties of the matrix resin. Conventional co-cured structures, although too costly and complex for large-scale manufacturing, are trusted by manufacturers and regulators, and are certified for flight with few or no redundant fasteners.Systems analysis performed on a composite wing model at the scale of a single-aisle commercial transport aircraft indicated that >20,000 redundant fasteners per wing could be eliminated by implementing the AERoBOND joining method. A total weight reduction of 15% was predicted in a wing box by eliminating fasteners and thinning components that must no longer support localized fastener loads and accommodate fastener dimensions. Interlaminar shear fracture toughness measured by the end-notched flexure test was greater than 1 kJ/m2 (nearly 140% of the co-cured benchmark property), which is greatly in excess of the project goals for mechanical properties. Testing was planned to measure interlaminar tensile fracture toughness as well as interlaminar tensile and shear strengths using the same AERoBOND configuration, but was delayed due to closure of LaRC facilities during the COVID-19 pandemic. The AERoBOND process model is partially validated and available for experimental use. It allows the user to input AERoBOND process parameters such as material composition, laminate configuration, and cure cycle to predict the final cure state of the AERoBOND joint. A preliminary, multi-scale material model was developed to predict AERoBOND joint mechanical properties (stiffness and strength) based on the cure state of the joint provided by the process model. The timing for transition of this technology within NASA is excellent as NASA initiates new enduring projects to address composites manufacturing rate challenges. AERoBOND technology is well suited to AAVP/AATT objectives for rapid manufacturing of a composite wing. A minimal effort (1 FTE/$15k procurement/0 WYE) is proposed in FY21 to continue a minor mechanical testing effort and maintain a SAA with ASX composites to develop commercial quality prepreg material. An RFI with the composites industry is suggested to quantify the technology gap between the current TRL and the TRL needed for transition to industry. A moderate effort [3-4 FTE/$150k/1 WYE (~$115k)] is proposed in FY22 for the “high rate composites manufacturing” project currently in planning. The partnership with ASX Composites will be expanded to produce material for sub-element/element-scale “panel-off” activities. Industry partnerships with airframe manufacturers is an expected component to explore damage tolerance and environmental stability. Further development of multi-scale modeling tools (process model, meso-scale model, and molecular model) is planned to enhance and deliver tools for rapid manufacturing infusion.

Frank Louis Palmieri↗
DOE OSTI2022

Irrigation Modernization Task 4: Accelerating Energy Solutions (FY2022 Final Report)

This report offers insights on energy solutions for irrigation modernization that serve the needs of farmers as well as residents and industry in the local community. Solutions are found in the irrigation districts where local generation from renewable energy sources – solar, hydro, and wind – can be combined with energy storage and customer loads. These combined resources configured in microgrids can lower costs during peak loads and provide resiliency by maintaining electricity supply during outages. The goal of this project, as stated in the FY2022 AOP, is to promote realization of energy solutions that are tailored to physical location, community, infrastructure, and energy value streams. Further, it is to develop examples of how to increase value of, and overcome barriers to, energy solutions in the context of irrigation modernization. In pursuit of that goal, the project looked at options for: 1) Reducing the cost of energy consumed in irrigation systems, 2) Increasing the revenue from surplus power generation, and 3) Deploying new power generation configured as part of a local microgrid. Potential solutions to reducing energy costs and increasing surplus power revenue revolve around addressing regulatory and legal constraints tied to how power is purchased by and sold to the irrigator or irrigation district. Some headway was made in identifying barriers and ways to push utilities to be more accommodating to distributed energy sources; however, for the most part, real progress hinges on changes at the regulatory and legislative level. Deployment of local, renewable generation systems can be implemented provided the economics of the project and the location are favorable. In concert with Famers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon, a number of approaches were studied in the past year, including off-grid solar powered pumps, grid-tied community solar projects, and in-conduit canal hydropower systems. Ultimately three viable projects were identified: 1) North Unit Irrigation District/City of Redmond, Oregon Critical Facility Microgrid – offers combined in-conduit hydro and solar power generation. 2) Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System Upgrades – centered on upgrades to a non-powered dam that will add a turbine as well as in-conduit power in canal feeders downstream. 3) Medford, Oregon Wastewater Treatment Plant Biogas Cogeneration System – centered on building out biogas storage and grid upgrades to power the plant, sell excess power, and provide emergency backup power (supplanting a diesel generator). Each of these projects has characteristics that broaden the understanding of the value of microgrids employing renewable energy to achieve resiliency and net-zero carbon goals. The first two projects are centered on new hydropower systems. Although the Medford project is only tangentially tied to an irrigation district, it was selected for study analysis as it was the only one mature enough (with sufficient data) to complete an analysis within this project year. Thus, we chose to move forward developing a case study, in concert with the Community Water-Power Resilience project, to demonstrate a method for evaluating such projects. Essentially, this case study serves as a template for studies to be carried out next year that more directly involve irrigation system hydropower, e.g., the project at the Wallowa County/Joseph, Oregon Irrigation System. Lastly, it is recognized that the locations and case studies in this report are all located in Oregon. We recognize this as a limitation. While the intent is not to ignore other states or regions, this result is driven by the fact that we have cultivated a collaboration with non-profit entities in Oregon that focus on these topics – Farmers Conservation Alliance and Energy Trust of Oregon. These partners were central to identifying projects that may be good fits for this program. A goal in the coming year is to establish collaboration with entities in other states/regions that, similarly, can connect us to potential projects in their geographic area. The potential benefits from the WPTO’s support for demonstration projects as energy solutions in irrigation districts include: (1) Alternative power supplies for communities and farms using renewable, carbon-free energy resources, (2) Cost savings for electricity for communities and farms, (3) Resiliency of power supplies for critical loads when electricity from the grid is not available, (4) Resiliency of power supplies for critical infrastructure in the event of catastrophic events, and (5) Demonstration of irrigation modernization projects that provide resilience and a reduced carbon footprint to irrigation districts and nearby communities. These deployments can serve as vanguards/archetypes spurring similar projects in other districts and states.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
NASA NTRS2014

An Improved Cryosat-2 Sea Ice Freeboard Retrieval Algorithm Through the Use of Waveform Fitting

We develop an empirical model capable of simulating the mean echo power cross product of CryoSat-2 SAR and SAR In mode waveforms over sea ice covered regions. The model simulations are used to show the importance of variations in the radar backscatter coefficient with incidence angle and surface roughness for the retrieval of surfaceelevation of both sea ice floes and leads. The numerical model is used to fit CryoSat-2 waveforms to enable retrieval of surface elevation through the use of look-up tables and a bounded trust region Newton least squares fitting approach. The use of a model to fit returns from sea ice regions offers advantages over currently used threshold retrackingmethods which are here shown to be sensitive to the combined effect of bandwidth limited range resolution and surface roughness variations. Laxon et al. (2013) have compared ice thickness results from CryoSat-2 and IceBridge, and found good agreement, however consistent assumptions about the snow depth and density of sea ice werenot used in the comparisons. To address this issue, we directly compare ice freeboard and thickness retrievals from the waveform fitting and threshold tracker methods of CryoSat-2 to Operation IceBridge data using a consistent set of parameterizations. For three IceBridge campaign periods from March 20112013, mean differences (CryoSat-2 IceBridge) of 0.144m and 1.351m are respectively found between the freeboard and thickness retrievals using a 50 sea ice floe threshold retracker, while mean differences of 0.019m and 0.182m are found when using the waveform fitting method. This suggests the waveform fitting technique is capable of better reconciling the seaice thickness data record from laser and radar altimetry data sets through the usage of consistent physical assumptions.

CryoSat-2↗
NASA NTRS1998

On Managing the Use of Surrogates in General Nonlinear Optimization and MDO

This paper is concerned with a trust region approximation management framework (AMF) for solving the nonlinear programming problem in general and multidisciplinary optimization problems in particular The intent of the AMF methodology is to facilitate the solution of optimization problems with high-fidelity models. While such models are designed to approximate the physical phenomena they describe to a high degree of accuracy, their use in a repetitive procedure, for example, iterations of an optimization or a search algorithm, make such use prohibitively expensive. An improvement in design with lower-fidelity, cheaper models, however, does not guarantee a corresponding improvement for the higher-fidelity problem. The AMF methodology proposed here is based on a class of multilevel methods for constrained optimization and is designed to manage the use of variable-fidelity approximations or models in a systematic way that assures convergence to critical points of the original high-fidelity problem.

Alexandrov, Natalia M.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Promoting Physical Activity During Pregnancy and the Postpartum Period

Introduction Physical activity is important for improving and maintaining overall health across the life span, including during and after pregnancy. Achieving recommended levels of physical activity can be challenging during pregnancy and the postpartum period. The US Office of Disease Prevention and Health Promotion sought to promote physical activity during and after pregnancy through the development of health education materials for the Move Your Way campaign. Research was conducted with pregnant and postpartum people to learn what types of messages and materials would encourage physical activity in these populations. Methods Participants were recruited from 3 regions of the United States to participate in 90‐minute virtual focus groups. Eligible participants were aged 18 years or older and either pregnant or 6 weeks to 1 year postpartum. Participants were asked questions about their beliefs, attitudes, and perceptions about physical activity and prompted to provide feedback on health promotion messages and images. Sessions were recorded, transcribed, and analyzed for key themes. Results Twenty‐four focus groups were conducted with 48 pregnant participants and 52 postpartum participants. Sixteen sessions were conducted in English and 8 were conducted in Spanish. Most participants had questions about how much physical activity is recommended, and many cited their health care provider as a trusted source of information. Participants responded positively to materials that acknowledged the uniqueness of each pregnant or postpartum experience, referenced gradually increasing physical activity levels, highlighted the benefits of physical activity, focused on safety, addressed common barriers, and displayed realistic representations of physical activity. Discussion There is an opportunity to improve messaging about physical activity during and after pregnancy. To better promote physical activity, perinatal health care providers and other health professionals can share information about recommended amounts of physical activity, communicate the benefits, and promote realistic and achievable physical activity messages that address common barriers in these populations.

Nursing↗
NASA NTRS2019

Retrieval of Snow Freeboard of Antarctic Sea Ice Using Waveform Fitting of CryoSat-2 Returns

In this paper we develop a CryoSat-2 algorithm to retrieve the surface elevation of the air–snow interface over Antarctic sea ice. This algorithm utilizes a two-layer physical model that accounts for scattering from a snow layer atop sea ice as well as scattering from below the snow surface. The model produces waveforms that are fit to CryoSat-2 level 1B data through a bounded trust region least-squares fitting process. These fit waveforms are then used to track the air–snow interface and retrieve the surface elevation at each point along the CryoSat-2 ground track, from which the snow freeboard is computed. To validate this algorithm, we compare retrieved surface elevation measurements and snow surface radar return power levels with those from Operation IceBridge, which flew along a contemporaneous CryoSat-2 orbit in October 2011 and November 2012. Average elevation differences (standard deviations) along the flight lines (IceBridge Airborne Topographic Mapper, ATM – CryoSat-2) are found to be 0.016 cm (29.24 cm) in 2011 and 2.58 cm (26.65 cm) in 2012. The spatial distribution of monthly average pan-Antarctic snow freeboard found using this method is similar to what was observed from NASA's Ice, Cloud, and land Elevation Satellite (ICESat), where the difference (standard deviation) between October 2011–2017 CryoSat-2 mean snow freeboard and spring 2003–2007 mean freeboard from ICESat is 1.92 cm (9.23 cm). While our results suggest that this physical model and waveform fitting method can be used to retrieve snow freeboard from CryoSat-2, allowing for the potential to join laser and radar altimetry data records in the Antarctic, larger (∼30 cm) regional differences from ICESat and along-track differences from ATM do exist, suggesting the need for future improvements to the method. Snow–ice interface elevation retrieval is also explored as a potential to obtain snow depth measurements. However, it is found that this retrieval method often tracks a strong scattering layer within the snow layer instead of the actual snow–ice interface, leading to an overestimation of ice freeboard and an underestimation of snow depth in much of the Southern Ocean but with promising results in areas such as the East Antarctic sector.

Fons, Steven W.↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performance Evaluation of an Offshore Wave Measurement Buoy in Monochromatic Waves

The accurate measurement of waves underpins marine energy resource characterization, device design, and project development. Datawell wave buoys are widely deployed and have long served as a trusted standard for wave measurements. We quantify the measurement performance, including wave elevation and energy flux estimation, of a Datawell DWR-MkIII buoy using prescribed monochromatic heave motions on a large-amplitude six-degree-of-freedom motion platform at the National Laboratory of the Rockies, assuming the buoy behaves as an ideal wave follower. Commanded motions were validated with an optical motion tracking system while buoy elevation and raw acceleration were recorded. Wave elevations were propagated to wave energy flux estimation using four methods, including one frequency-domain method and three time-domain methods. The Bayesian optimization was applied for design of experiments, and records from three test sites were also applied and evaluated in the present study. Results show two error regions within the nominal period range of 1.6 s to 30 s. For wave periods between 5 s and 25 s, the buoy provides accurate wave height measurements. For short periods less than 5 s, the 1.28 Hz sampling frequency induces sub-Nyquist artifacts that bias elevation and can drive maximum energy flux estimation errors above 100%. For long periods exceeding 25 s, the buoy reported elevation is underpredicted with error depending on period but relatively independent of wave height, with maximum wave height and wave energy flux errors reaching 64% and 87%, respectively. Furthermore, analysis of three field-derived cases shows that frequency-domain estimates at 1.28 Hz agree within 2% of the corresponding 100 Hz estimates, while larger method-dependent differences are observed for the Hilbert method.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Breaking Barriers: Integrating Geo-Leo Aerosol Data with an Open-Source Approach

The scientific community is still examining the novel data from geostationary satellite observations and evaluating methods for effectively fusing the polar observations with various spatial and temporal resolutions. However, the merged data will present a significant ""Big Data"" challenge, including processing, storage, data discoverability, accessibility, and migration within cloud computing environments. We have developed an open-source package to fuse aerosol optical depths (AOD) products from six satellite sensors in the past four years (2019~2023), and this presentation will update our recent progress. Using this Python-based package, we produced a level 3 global (AOD) product in a quarter-degree spatial resolution every half-hour, fusing the Level 2 AOD data with the Dark Target aerosol retrieval algorithm from six satellites: three geostationary (GOES-16/17 and Himawari-8) with high temporal resolution, and three polar orbiting (TERRA/MODIS, AQUA/MODIS, and SNPP-VIIRS) with global coverage. By integrating these observations, the diurnal cycle of global AOD in this fused product can be characterized at local, regional, and global scales. Furthermore, we are committed to openness and transparency by providing our package and its associated functionalities as open-source. Our dedication to adhering to the FAIR, CARE, and TRUST principles ensures that our users can rely on the integrity and ethical standards of our work. For instance of Interoperability, this package fuses remote sensing products on demand into desired temporal and spatial domains. It can be run in a central processing unit (CPU) or a Graphics processing unit (GPU) mode. This package will empower researchers and practitioners to use satellite and sensor data efficiently in various applications and research.

Xiaohua Pan↗
NASA NTRS2012

Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing Algorithm

This innovation is a variation of a simulated-annealing optimization algorithm that uses a recursive-branching structure to parallelize the search of a parameter space for the globally optimal solution to an objective. The algorithm has been demonstrated to be more effective at searching a parameter space than traditional simulated-annealing methods for a particular problem of interest, and it can readily be applied to a wide variety of optimization problems, including those with a parameter space having both discrete-value parameters (combinatorial) and continuous-variable parameters. It can take the place of a conventional simulated- annealing, Monte-Carlo, or random- walk algorithm. In a conventional simulated-annealing (SA) algorithm, a starting configuration is randomly selected within the parameter space. The algorithm randomly selects another configuration from the parameter space and evaluates the objective function for that configuration. If the objective function value is better than the previous value, the new configuration is adopted as the new point of interest in the parameter space. If the objective function value is worse than the previous value, the new configuration may be adopted, with a probability determined by a temperature parameter, used in analogy to annealing in metals. As the optimization continues, the region of the parameter space from which new configurations can be selected shrinks, and in conjunction with lowering the annealing temperature (and thus lowering the probability for adopting configurations in parameter space with worse objective functions), the algorithm can converge on the globally optimal configuration. The Recursive Branching Simulated Annealing (RBSA) algorithm shares some features with the SA algorithm, notably including the basic principles that a starting configuration is randomly selected from within the parameter space, the algorithm tests other configurations with the goal of finding the globally optimal solution, and the region from which new configurations can be selected shrinks as the search continues. The key difference between these algorithms is that in the SA algorithm, a single path, or trajectory, is taken in parameter space, from the starting point to the globally optimal solution, while in the RBSA algorithm, many trajectories are taken; by exploring multiple regions of the parameter space simultaneously, the algorithm has been shown to converge on the globally optimal solution about an order of magnitude faster than when using conventional algorithms. Novel features of the RBSA algorithm include: 1. More efficient searching of the parameter space due to the branching structure, in which multiple random configurations are generated and multiple promising regions of the parameter space are explored; 2. The implementation of a trust region for each parameter in the parameter space, which provides a natural way of enforcing upper- and lower-bound constraints on the parameters; and 3. The optional use of a constrained gradient- search optimization, performed on the continuous variables around each branch s configuration in parameter space to improve search efficiency by allowing for fast fine-tuning of the continuous variables within the trust region at that configuration point.

Bolcar, Matthew↗
DOE OSTI2023

Predictive performance of multi-model ensemble forecasts of COVID-19 across European nations

Background: Short-term forecasts of infectious disease burden can contribute to situational awareness and aid capacity planning. Based on best practice in other fields and recent insights in infectious disease epidemiology, one can maximise the predictive performance of such forecasts if multiple models are combined into an ensemble. Here, we report on the performance of ensembles in predicting COVID-19 cases and deaths across Europe between 08 March 2021 and 07 March 2022. Methods: We used open-source tools to develop a public European COVID-19 Forecast Hub. We invited groups globally to contribute weekly forecasts for COVID-19 cases and deaths reported by a standardised source for 32 countries over the next 1–4 weeks. Teams submitted forecasts from March 2021 using standardised quantiles of the predictive distribution. Each week we created an ensemble forecast, where each predictive quantile was calculated as the equally-weighted average (initially the mean and then from 26th July the median) of all individual models’ predictive quantiles. We measured the performance of each model using the relative Weighted Interval Score (WIS), comparing models’ forecast accuracy relative to all other models. We retrospectively explored alternative methods for ensemble forecasts, including weighted averages based on models’ past predictive performance. Results: Over 52 weeks, we collected forecasts from 48 unique models. We evaluated 29 models’ forecast scores in comparison to the ensemble model. We found a weekly ensemble had a consistently strong performance across countries over time. Across all horizons and locations, the ensemble performed better on relative WIS than 83% of participating models’ forecasts of incident cases (with a total N=886 predictions from 23 unique models), and 91% of participating models’ forecasts of deaths (N=763 predictions from 20 models). Across a 1–4 week time horizon, ensemble performance declined with longer forecast periods when forecasting cases, but remained stable over 4 weeks for incident death forecasts. In every forecast across 32 countries, the ensemble outperformed most contributing models when forecasting either cases or deaths, frequently outperforming all of its individual component models. Among several choices of ensemble methods we found that the most influential and best choice was to use a median average of models instead of using the mean, regardless of methods of weighting component forecast models. Conclusions: Our results support the use of combining forecasts from individual models into an ensemble in order to improve predictive performance across epidemiological targets and populations during infectious disease epidemics. Our findings further suggest that median ensemble methods yield better predictive performance more than ones based on means. Our findings also highlight that forecast consumers should place more weight on incident death forecasts than incident case forecasts at forecast horizons greater than 2 weeks. Funding: AA, BH, BL, LWa, MMa, PP, SV funded by National Institutes of Health (NIH) Grant 1R01GM109718, NSF BIG DATA Grant IIS-1633028, NSF Grant No.: OAC-1916805, NSF Expeditions in Computing Grant CCF-1918656, CCF-1917819, NSF RAPID CNS-2028004, NSF RAPID OAC-2027541, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 75D30119C05935, a grant from Google, University of Virginia Strategic Investment Fund award number SIF160, Defense Threat Reduction Agency (DTRA) under Contract No. HDTRA1-19-D-0007, and respectively Virginia Dept of Health Grant VDH-21-501-0141, VDH-21-501-0143, VDH-21-501-0147, VDH-21-501-0145, VDH-21-501-0146, VDH-21-501-0142, VDH-21-501-0148. AF, AMa, GL funded by SMIGE - Modelli statistici inferenziali per governare l'epidemia, FISR 2020-Covid-19 I Fase, FISR2020IP-00156, Codice Progetto: PRJ-0695. AM, BK, FD, FR, JK, JN, JZ, KN, MG, MR, MS, RB funded by Ministry of Science and Higher Education of Poland with grant 28/WFSN/2021 to the University of Warsaw. BRe, CPe, JLAz funded by Ministerio de Sanidad/ISCIII. BT, PG funded by PERISCOPE European H2020 project, contract number 101016233. CP, DL, EA, MC, SA funded by European Commission - Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology through the contract LC-01485746, and Ministerio de Ciencia, Innovacion y Universidades and FEDER, with the project PGC2018-095456-B-I00. DE., MGu funded by Spanish Ministry of Health / REACT-UE (FEDER). DO, GF, IMi, LC funded by Laboratory Directed Research and Development program of Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL) under project number 20200700ER. DS, ELR, GG, NGR, NW, YW funded by National Institutes of General Medical Sciences (R35GM119582; the content is solely the responsibility of the authors and does not necessarily represent the official views of NIGMS or the National Institutes of Health). FB, FP funded by InPresa, Lombardy Region, Italy. HG, KS funded by European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control. IV funded by Agencia de Qualitat i Avaluacio Sanitaries de Catalunya (AQuAS) through contract 2021-021OE. JDe, SMo, VP funded by Netzwerk Universitatsmedizin (NUM) project egePan (01KX2021). JPB, SH, TH funded by Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF; grant 05M18SIA). KH, MSc, YKh funded by Project SaxoCOV, funded by the German Free State of Saxony. Presentation of data, model results and simulations also funded by the NFDI4Health Task Force COVID-19 ( https://www.nfdi4health.de/task-force-covid-19-2 ) within the framework of a DFG-project (LO-342/17-1). LP, VE funded by Mathematical and Statistical modelling project (MUNI/A/1615/2020), Online platform for real-time monitoring, analysis and management of epidemic situations (MUNI/11/02202001/2020); VE also supported by RECETOX research infrastructure (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports of the Czech Republic: LM2018121), the CETOCOEN EXCELLENCE (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/17-043/0009632), RECETOX RI project (CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16-013/0001761). NIB funded by Health Protection Research Unit (grant code NIHR200908). SAb, SF funded by Wellcome Trust (210758/Z/18/Z).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗