SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “trajectory prediction”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

NASA NTRS2010

Definition and Demonstration of a Methodology for Validating Aircraft Trajectory Predictors

This paper presents a new methodology for validating an aircraft trajectory predictor, inspired by the lessons learned from a number of field trials, flight tests and simulation experiments for the development of trajectory-predictor-based automation. The methodology introduces new techniques and a new multi-staged approach to reduce the effort in identifying and resolving validation failures, avoiding the potentially large costs associated with failures during a single-stage, pass/fail approach. As a case study, the validation effort performed by the Federal Aviation Administration for its En Route Automation Modernization (ERAM) system is analyzed to illustrate the real-world applicability of this methodology. During this validation effort, ERAM initially failed to achieve six of its eight requirements associated with trajectory prediction and conflict probe. The ERAM validation issues have since been addressed, but to illustrate how the methodology could have benefited the FAA effort, additional techniques are presented that could have been used to resolve some of these issues. Using data from the ERAM validation effort, it is demonstrated that these new techniques could have identified trajectory prediction error sources that contributed to several of the unmet ERAM requirements.

Vivona, Robert A.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Preferences Corpus and Annotation Scheme for Human-Guided Alignment of Time-Series GPTs

The process of time-series forecasting such as predicting trajectories of silicon content in blast furnaces is a difficult task. Most time-series approaches today focus on scalar-type MSE loss optimization. This optimization approach, while widely common, could benefit from the use of human expert or process-level preferences. In this paper, we introduce a novel alignment and fine-tuning approach that involves learning from a corpus of preferred and dis-preferred time-series prediction trajectories. Our contributions include (1) a preference annotation pipeline for time-series forecasts, (2) the application of Score-based Preference Optimization (SPO) to train decoder-only transformers from preferences, and (3) results showing improvements in forecast quality. The approach is validated on both proprietary blast furnace data and the UCI Appliances Energy dataset. The proposed preference corpus and training strategy offer a new option for fine-tuning sequence models in industrial settings.

DPO↗

NASA NTRS2010

A Final Approach Trajectory Model for Current Operations

Predicting accurate trajectories with limited intent information is a challenge faced by air traffic management decision support tools in operation today. One such tool is the FAA's Terminal Proximity Alert system which is intended to assist controllers in maintaining safe separation of arrival aircraft during final approach. In an effort to improve the performance of such tools, two final approach trajectory models are proposed; one based on polynomial interpolation, the other on the Fourier transform. These models were tested against actual traffic data and used to study effects of the key final approach trajectory modeling parameters of wind, aircraft type, and weight class, on trajectory prediction accuracy. Using only the limited intent data available to today's ATM system, both the polynomial interpolation and Fourier transform models showed improved trajectory prediction accuracy over a baseline dead reckoning model. Analysis of actual arrival traffic showed that this improved trajectory prediction accuracy leads to improved inter-arrival separation prediction accuracy for longer look ahead times. The difference in mean inter-arrival separation prediction error between the Fourier transform and dead reckoning models was 0.2 nmi for a look ahead time of 120 sec, a 33 percent improvement, with a corresponding 32 percent improvement in standard deviation.

Gong, Chester↗

NASA NTRS2010

IRVE-II Post-Flight Trajectory Reconstruction

NASA s Inflatable Re-entry Vehicle Experiment (IRVE) II successfully demonstrated an inflatable aerodynamic decelerator after being launched aboard a sounding rocket from Wallops Flight Facility (WFF). Preliminary day of flight data compared well with pre-flight Monte Carlo analysis, and a more complete trajectory reconstruction performed with an Extended Kalman Filter (EKF) approach followed. The reconstructed trajectory and comparisons to an attitude solution provided by NASA Sounding Rocket Operations Contract (NSROC) personnel at WFF are presented. Additional comparisons are made between the reconstructed trajectory and pre and post-flight Monte Carlo trajectory predictions. Alternative observations of the trajectory are summarized which leverage flight accelerometer measurements, the pre-flight aerodynamic database, and on-board flight video. Finally, analysis of the payload separation and aeroshell deployment events are presented. The flight trajectory is reconstructed to fidelity sufficient to assess overall project objectives related to flight dynamics and overall, IRVE-II flight dynamics are in line with expectations

O'Keefe, Stephen A.↗

NASA NTRS1983

NASA wake interactions research and applications

This report describes the development, validation, and application of a computer program for predicting trajectories and ground deposit patterns for particle released in the wakes of airplanes or helicopters. The computer program accounts for the effects of atmospheric turbulence, crosswind, propeller slipstream, terrain variations, evaporation, and plant canopy density on the particle trajectories. In order to validate the prediction method, some comparisons are shown between experimental data and theoretical predictions. Possible applications of the code for spray pattern improvement and for mission operations analysis are illustrated. In addition, the effect of winglets on pattern uniformity, drift, and airplane aerodynamics are presented.

Morris, D. J.↗

NASA NTRS1999

Experiment Verification of the Analytical Methodology to Predict the Residual Strength of Metallic Shell Structure

Experimental and analysis results for a curved, stiffened aluminum fuselage panel tested in a combined loads test machine with combined internal pressure, axial compression, and torsional shear loads are described. The experimental and analytical strain results for the panel with and without discrete source damage are presented. The effect of notch tip geometry on crack growth predictions is addressed. The crack growth trajectory predictions for the panel are presented for the applied loading conditions at failure.

Starnes, James H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Manned space flight - The effects of Shuttle perturbations on orbital trajectory

Orbit determination and trajectory prediction for the National Space Transportation System program is complicated by trajectory perturbations that are unique to the Shuttle. Orbital energy changes are seen during extended hold periods as well as during unmodeled attitude maneuvers. While a portion of these changes are due to dynamical mismodeling, the majority of the changes are due to dynamics that are unique to the Shuttle. The ability to take these previously unmodeled effects into account will allow a more accurate preflight and real-time prediction of the orbital trajectory to support payload requirements. This paper deals with the determination of the databases used to determine preflight and real-time energy growth and the results of using the databases to accurately predict energy growth for future flights.

Barrett, Charles P.↗

NASA NTRS1971

Tests and comparisons of gravity models.

Optical observations of the GEOS satellites were used to obtain orbital solutions with different sets of geopotential coefficients. The solutions were compared before and after modification to high order terms (necessary because of resonance) and were then analyzed by comparing subsequent observations with predicted trajectories. The most important source of error in orbit determination and prediction for the GEOS satellites is the effect of resonance found in most published sets of geopotential coefficients. Modifications to the sets yield greatly improved orbits in most cases. The results of these comparisons suggest that with the best optical tracking systems and gravity models, satellite position error due to gravity model uncertainty can reach 50-100 m during a heavily observed 5-6 day orbital arc. If resonant coefficients are estimated, the uncertainty is reduced considerably.

Marsh, J. G.↗

NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Air Traffic Track Data with the AutoBayes Synthesis System

The Next Generation Air Traffic System (NGATS) is aiming to provide substantial computer support for the air traffic controllers. Algorithms for the accurate prediction of aircraft movements are of central importance for such software systems but trajectory prediction has to work reliably in the presence of unknown parameters and uncertainties. We are using the AutoBayes program synthesis system to generate customized data analysis algorithms that process large sets of aircraft radar track data in order to estimate parameters and uncertainties. In this paper, we present, how the tasks of finding structure in track data, estimation of important parameters in climb trajectories, and the detection of continuous descent approaches can be accomplished with compact task-specific AutoBayes specifications. We present an overview of the AutoBayes architecture and describe, how its schema-based approach generates customized analysis algorithms, documented C/C++ code, and detailed mathematical derivations. Results of experiments with actual air traffic control data are discussed.

Schumann, Johann Martin Philip↗

NASA NTRS1997

DRA/NASA/ONERA Collaboration on Icing Research: Prediction of Airfoil Ice Accretion - Part 2

This report presents results from a joint study by DRA, NASA, and ONERA for the purpose of comparing, improving, and validating the aircraft icing computer codes developed by each agency. These codes are of three kinds: (1) water droplet trajectory prediction, (2) ice accretion modeling, and (3) transient electrothermal deicer analysis. In this joint study, the agencies compared their code predictions with each other and with experimental results. These comparison exercises were published in three technical reports, each with joint authorship. DRA published and had first authorship of Part 1 - Droplet Trajectory Calculations, NASA of Part 2 - Ice Accretion Prediction, and ONERA of Part 3 - Electrothermal Deicer Analysis. The results cover work done during the period from August 1986 to late 1991. As a result, all of the information in this report is dated. Where necessary, current information is provided to show the direction of current research. In this present report on ice accretion, each agency predicted ice shapes on two dimensional airfoils under icing conditions for which experimental ice shapes were available. In general, all three codes did a reasonable job of predicting the measured ice shapes. For any given experimental condition, one of the three codes predicted the general ice features (i.e., shape, impingement limits, mass of ice) somewhat better than did the other two. However, no single code consistently did better than the other two over the full range of conditions examined, which included rime, mixed, and glaze ice conditions. In several of the cases, DRA showed that the user's knowledge of icing can significantly improve the accuracy of the code prediction. Rime ice predictions were reasonably accurate and consistent among the codes, because droplets freeze on impact and the freezing model is simple. Glaze ice predictions were less accurate and less consistent among the codes, because the freezing model is more complex and is critically dependent upon unsubstantiated heat transfer and surface roughness models. Thus, heat transfer prediction methods used in the codes became the subject for a separate study in this report to compare predicted heat transfer coefficients with a limited experimental database of heat transfer coefficients for cylinders with simulated glaze and rime ice shapes. The codes did a good job of predicting heat transfer coefficients near the stagnation region of the ice shapes. But in the region of the ice horns, all three codes predicted heat transfer coefficients considerably higher than the measured values. An important conclusion of this study is that further research is needed to understand the finer detail of of the glaze ice accretion process and to develop improved glaze ice accretion models.

Wright, William B.↗

NASA NTRS2013

TSAFE Interface Control Document v 2.0

This document specifies the data interface for TSAFE, the Tactical Separation-Assured Flight Environment. TSAFE is a research prototype of a software application program for alerting air traffic controllers to imminent conflicts in enroute airspace. It is intended for Air Route Traffic Control Centers ("Centers") in the U.S. National Airspace System. It predicts trajectories for approximately 3 minutes into the future, searches for conflicts, and sends data about predicted conflicts to the client, which uses the data to alert an air traffic controller of conflicts. TSAFE itself does not provide a graphical user interface.

Paielli, Russell A.↗

NASA NTRS2011

Design and Evaluation of the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing System

This paper describes the design, development and results from a high fidelity human-in-the-loop simulation of an integrated set of trajectory-based automation tools providing precision scheduling, sequencing and controller merging and spacing functions. These integrated functions are combined into a system called the Terminal Area Precision Scheduling and Spacing (TAPSS) system. It is a strategic and tactical planning tool that provides Traffic Management Coordinators, En Route and Terminal Radar Approach Control air traffic controllers the ability to efficiently optimize the arrival capacity of a demand-impacted airport while simultaneously enabling fuel-efficient descent procedures. The TAPSS system consists of four-dimensional trajectory prediction, arrival runway balancing, aircraft separation constraint-based scheduling, traffic flow visualization and trajectory-based advisories to assist controllers in efficient metering, sequencing and spacing. The TAPSS system was evaluated and compared to today's ATC operation through extensive series of human-in-the-loop simulations for arrival flows into the Los Angeles International Airport. The test conditions included the variation of aircraft demand from a baseline of today's capacity constrained periods through 5%, 10% and 20% increases. Performance data were collected for engineering and human factor analysis and compared with similar operations both with and without the TAPSS system. The engineering data indicate operations with the TAPSS show up to a 10% increase in airport throughput during capacity constrained periods while maintaining fuel-efficient aircraft descent profiles from cruise to landing.

Swenson, Harry N.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Determination of Ceres Physical Parameters Using Radiometric and Optical Data

The Dawn spacecraft was launched on September 27th, 2007. Its mission is to rendezvous with and observe the two largest bodies in the main asteroid belt, Vesta and Ceres. It has completed over a year’s worth of direct observations of Vesta from early 2011 through late 2012. In the spring of 2015, the Dawn spacecraft entered orbit around the asteroid Ceres for the start of what is expected to be more than a year of science operations. The science data collected from this encounter consist of infrared (IR) images and spectra, visible images through a number of color filters, gamma ray detections and measurements of the Ceres gravity field. These data will be collected during several science phases: an Approach phase (1500000-4860 km from Ceres), a Survey orbit (4860 km radius), a High Altitude Mapping Orbit (HAMO) (1940 km radius) and a Low Altitude Mapping Orbit (LAMO) (855 km radius). The Approach phase included three Rotational Characterization (RC) opportunities. Designing each science orbit and successfully transferring into that orbit requires a sufficiently accurate estimate of Ceres physical parameters (body fixed frame, GM and harmonics). This paper focuses on work performed to estimate Ceres physical parameters using Deep Space Network (DSN) radiometric tracking data and optical measurements derived from science camera imagery. This paper describes planning for the data acquisition, as well as processing techniques and methodology. The trajectories predicted by the gravity field estimations are also compared with the actual as-flown trajectories. Observations of the gravity at high altitudes are found to be sufficient to design precision orbits at lower altitudes. Follow-up analysis after successfully reaching LAMO is included, as is a discussion of lessons learned.

Kennedy, Brian M.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Airborne Four-Dimensional Flight Management in a Time-based Air Traffic Control Environment

Advanced Air Traffic Control (ATC) systems are being developed which contain time-based (4D) trajectory predictions of aircraft. Airborne flight management systems (FMS) exist or are being developed with similar 4D trajectory generation capabilities. Differences between the ATC generated profiles and those generated by the airborne 4D FMS may introduce system problems. A simulation experiment was conducted to explore integration of a 4D equipped aircraft into a 4D ATC system. The NASA Langley Transport Systems Research Vehicle cockpit simulator was linked in real time to the NASA Ames Descent Advisor ATC simulation for this effort. Candidate procedures for handling 4D equipped aircraft were devised and traffic scenarios established which required time delays absorbed through speed control alone or in combination with path stretching. Dissimilarities in 4D speed strategies between airborne and ATC generated trajectories were tested in these scenarios. The 4D procedures and FMS operation were well received by airline pilot test subjects, who achieved an arrival accuracy at the metering fix of 2.9 seconds standard deviation time error. The amount and nature of the information transmitted during a time clearance were found to be somewhat of a problem using the voice radio communication channel. Dissimilarities between airborne and ATC-generated speed strategies were found to be a problem when the traffic remained on established routes. It was more efficient for 4D equipped aircraft to fly trajectories with similar, though less fuel efficient, speeds which conform to the ATC strategy. Heavy traffic conditions, where time delays forced off-route path stretching, were found to produce a potential operational benefit of the airborne 4D FMS.

Williams, David H.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Estimation of Separation Buffers for Wind-Prediction Error in an Airborne Separation Assistance System

Wind prediction errors are known to affect the performance of automated air traffic management tools that rely on aircraft trajectory predictions. In particular, automated separation assurance tools, planned as part of the NextGen concept of operations, must be designed to account and compensate for the impact of wind prediction errors and other system uncertainties. In this paper we describe a high fidelity batch simulation study designed to estimate the separation distance required to compensate for the effects of wind-prediction errors throughout increasing traffic density on an airborne separation assistance system. These experimental runs are part of the Safety Performance of Airborne Separation experiment suite that examines the safety implications of prediction errors and system uncertainties on airborne separation assurance systems. In this experiment, wind-prediction errors were varied between zero and forty knots while traffic density was increased several times current traffic levels. In order to accurately measure the full unmitigated impact of wind-prediction errors, no uncertainty buffers were added to the separation minima. The goal of the study was to measure the impact of wind-prediction errors in order to estimate the additional separation buffers necessary to preserve separation and to provide a baseline for future analyses. Buffer estimations from this study will be used and verified in upcoming safety evaluation experiments under similar simulation conditions. Results suggest that the strategic airborne separation functions exercised in this experiment can sustain wind prediction errors up to 40kts at current day air traffic density with no additional separation distance buffer and at eight times the current day with no more than a 60% increase in separation distance buffer.

Consiglio, Maria C.↗

NASA NTRS2016

Probabilistic Modeling of Aircraft Trajectories for Dynamic Separation Volumes

With a proliferation of new and unconventional vehicles and operations expected in the future, the ab initio airspace design will require new approaches to trajectory prediction for separation assurance and other air traffic management functions. This paper presents an approach to probabilistic modeling of the trajectory of an aircraft when its intent is unknown. The approach uses a set of feature functions to constrain a maximum entropy probability distribution based on a set of observed aircraft trajectories. This model can be used to sample new aircraft trajectories to form an ensemble reflecting the variability in an aircraft's intent. The model learning process ensures that the variability in this ensemble reflects the behavior observed in the original data set. Computational examples are presented.

Lewis, Timothy A.↗

NASA NTRS2018

Concept of Operations for Management by Trajectory

This document describes Management by Trajectory (MBT), a concept for future air traffic management (ATM) in which every flight operates in accordance with a four-dimensional trajectory (4DT) that is negotiated between the airspace user and the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to respect the airspace user's goals while complying with National Airspace System (NAS) constraints. In the present-day NAS, the ATM system attempts to predict the trajectory for each flight based on the approved flight plan and scheduled or controlled departure time. However, once the aircraft starts to move, controllers tactically manage the aircraft to implement traffic management restrictions, separate otherwise conflicting aircraft, and address arising NAS constraints. Tactical controller actions are not directly communicated to the automation systems or other stakeholders. Furthermore, the initial trajectory prediction does not anticipate these disruptions or how they will impact the flight. Consequently, and compounded by gaps in required data and models, trajectory predictions are less accurate than possible, which affects Traffic Flow Management (TFM) performance. A cornerstone of the MBT concept is that all air vehicles have, at all times, an assigned 4DT from their current state to their destination. These assigned trajectories consist of trajectory constraints and descriptions. Pilots and air traffic controllers, with the aid of automation, operate the aircraft to comply with the assigned trajectory, unless first negotiating a revision. Equipped aircraft have substantial responsibility for complying with the assigned trajectory without controller intervention. To maximize the operational flexibility available to the airspace user, the assigned trajectory only imposes trajectory constraints as required to achieve the ATM goals of NAS constraint compliance and aircraft separation. Trajectory descriptions are added to the assigned trajectory to ensure sufficient predictability. To further improve trajectory prediction accuracy, airspace users supplement the assigned trajectory by broadcasting intent information and updating it as necessary. Air vehicle intent is a more detailed description of the airspace user's plan for how the flight will fly the assigned trajectory. Air vehicle intent can change freely, without negotiation, as long as it remains in compliance with the assigned trajectory. Aircraft assigned trajectories, air vehicle intent, and predicted trajectories are shared, creating a common view among stakeholders. A NAS Constraint Service gathers and publishes information about all known NAS constraints, enabling airspace users to be informed participants in trajectory negotiation. Trajectory constraints in the assigned trajectory are mapped to NAS constraints to facilitate identifying which aircraft are affected when NAS constraints change. To support efficient trajectory negotiation, all aircraft provide current information about air vehicle capabilities. Assigned trajectories are constructed to satisfy all known NAS constraints, improving trajectory stability and predictability. Uncertainty and disruptions are handled by modifying the assigned trajectory as far in advance as possible. By proactively negotiating changes to the assigned trajectory, rather than relying on controller-selected tactical actions such as vectors to resolve traffic conflicts or implement miles-in-trail restrictions, MBT keeps aircraft on closed trajectories that are fully known to all stakeholders. Since reactive air traffic control actions cannot be predicted in advance, the downstream trajectory cannot be accurately predicted until they happen. Reliable trajectory predictions allow the system to identify needed modifications to trajectories further in advance, where they can be negotiated and communicated as amendments (i.e., additional or altered trajectory constraints) to the assigned trajectory. Decision Support Tools (DSTs) aid controllers in rapidly defining and communicating closed trajectories to the aircraft and support all stakeholders in trajectory negotiation. Anticipated MBT benefit mechanisms include more accurate trajectory predictions, improved ATM performance and robustness to off-nominal conditions, increased flexibility and operational efficiency, reduced impediments to emerging classes of airspace users accessing NAS resources, reduced environmental impacts, and enhanced safety.

ConOps↗

NASA NTRS1992

Integrating Test Results With Analysis to Improve Safe Separation Flight Tests

Although extensive ground testing, utilizing both the Captive Trajectory system (CTS) and grid method, generally precedes flight testing of new aircraft/weapon combinations, the flight test results often do not match the wind tunnel predictions. These discrepancies are generally attributed to model scale, wind tunnel test errors and Reynolds Number effects, and may have been the cause of several previous aircraft/weapon incidents. The paper describes the procedure used at the Naval Air Warfare Center, Aircraft Division, Warminster (NAWCADWAR) during the early phases of wind tunnel testing and analysis, as well as subsequent flight testing to validate the predicted trajectories. This approach is designed to improve the safety of the flight tests for the critical portions of the aircraft envelope.

Flight Testing↗