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DOE OSTI2025

Life-cycle cost-benefit analysis of a novel self-heating pavement made from coal-derived solid carbon

Winter weather events challenge the safety, efficiency, and sustainability of roadway networks, particularly road bridges vulnerable to climate impacts. Although effective, conventional de-icing methods incur high expenses and cause significant environmental contamination. To address these longstanding issues, a low-cost novel coal-derived carbon enabled smart pavement (CDC-SP) de-icing system was developed, aiming to alleviate traffic delays, severe corrosion, compromised safety, and environmental pollution. However, the economic performance of CDC-SP has not been quantified to guide decision-making. To this end, this paper presents a Life-Cycle Cost-Benefit Analysis (LCCBA) to assess the economic feasibility of the CDC-SP de-icing system for road bridges in five representative urban and rural areas across cool humid and cold humid climate zones. Given the variations and uncertainties of several factors that determine the costs and benefits, a sensitivity analysis was conducted to determine the system’s economic reliability. Additionally, a Monte Carlo simulation (MCS) was performed to quantify the impacts of important factors and identify the most beneficial scenarios. Furthermore, the CDC-SP de-icing systems have demonstrated substantial economic benefits and short payback periods, showing great applicability for rural and urban road bridges with different service levels across multiple climate zones as compared to conventional de-icing methods.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Interactions Between Climate Policy and Technology-influenced Travel Behavior: Mitigating Induced Demand from CACC

Advances in vehicle technology have influenced the development of automated vehicle systems, where vehicles that do not require human intervention are already deployed in the roadway networks. While these advances are proved to increase roadway safety and highway capacity, more research is needed to understand the long-term and regional-level impacts on mobility, land use, energy consumption, and emissions. This study proposes a multi-model approach to analyze the effect of vehicle automation and deep decarbonization policies over a period from 2020 to 2040 in Austin, Texas. We use the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM) to develop internally the scenarios that are then passed to the SMART Mobility modeling workflow, a large-scale simulation framework combining the POLARIS activity-based travel demand model and mesoscopic traffic simulator with the Autonomie vehicle energy consumption model and the UrbanSim land use simulator. Results suggest that the introduction of vehicles with advanced automation could increase fuel consumption when no decarbonization policies are implemented. Also, advances in vehicle technology research and development could lead to a decline in energy use in the long-term. Energy pricing and vehicle electrification incentives could help reduce the impact of vehicle automation. Finally, our analysis indicates the relevance of introducing land use processes in longterm vehicle automation studies.

land use↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparative Analysis of Airspace System Accessibility for Uncrewed Aircraft Systems for Regional Operations

As part of newly developing aviation markets, fixed-wing Uncrewed Aircraft Systems (UAS) are projected to impact airspace systems and conventional air traffic in the future. The initial introduction of fixed-wing cargo UAS for regional operations is anticipated to occur at smaller under-utilized airports. Therefore, this paper assesses the integration potential of regional fixed-wing cargo UAS into the airspace system. A baseline is established to identify potential airports for UAS operations in different areas. Additionally, using 2022 data, regional aircraft eligible for future cargo UAS operations are investigated. Finally, the accessibility of these regional aircraft at the identified airports was analyzed. Based on the availability of current certified landing systems needed for initial UAS operations, the potential airports for UAS operations are compared in the areas of Germany, Texas, and California. Despite 173 identified airports for potential UAS operations in Germany, 376 in Texas, and 227 in California, only eleven of these airports provide current certified landing systems needed for initial UAS operations. However, other landing system technologies that are currently under development, such as vision-based landing systems, might support UAS accessibility at the identified airports for potential UAS operations in the future.

Uncrewed aircraft systems↗

NASA NTRS1998

An Integrated Safety Analysis Methodology for Emerging Air Transport Technologies

The continuing growth of air traffic will place demands on NASA's Air Traffic Management (ATM) system that cannot be accommodated without the creation of significant delays and economic impacts. To deal with this situation, work has begun to develop new approaches to providing a safe and economical air transportation infrastructure. Many of these emerging air transport technologies will represent radically new approaches to ATM, both for ground and air operations.

Kostiuk, Peter F.↗

NASA NTRS2023

Impact of COVID-19-related Air Traffic Reductions on the Coverage and Radiative Effects of Linear Persistent Contrails over Conterminous United States and Surrounding Oceanic Routes

The radiative effects of the large-scale air traffic slowdown during Apr and May 2020 due to the international response to the COVID-19 pandemic are estimated by comparing the coverage (CC), optical properties, and radiative forcing of persistent linear contrails over the conterminous United States and two surrounding oceanic air corridors during the slowdown period and a similar baseline period during 2018 and 2019 when air traffic was unrestricted. The detected CC during the slowdown period decreased by an area-averaged mean of 41% for the three analysis boxes. The retrieved contrail optical properties were mostly similar for both periods. Total shortwave contrail radiative forcings during the slowdown were 34 and 42% smaller for Terra and Aqua, respectively. The corresponding differences for longwave contrail radiative forcing were 33% for Terra and 40% for Aqua. To account for the impact of any changes in the atmospheric environment between baseline and slowdown periods on detected CC amounts, the contrail formation potential (CFP) was computed from reanalysis data. In addition, a filtered CFP (fCFP) was also developed to account for factors that may affect contrail formation and visibility of persistent contrails in satellite imagery. The CFP and fCFP were combined with air traffic density data to create empirical models that estimated CC during the baseline and slowdown periods and were compared to the detected CC. The models confirm that decreases in CC and radiative forcing during the slowdown period were mostly due to the reduction in air traffic, and partly due to environmental changes.

contrails↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Impact of Air Traffic Reductions during the COVID-19 Pandemic on Aircraft-induced Clouds and their Radiative Effects

Air travel restrictions due to the novel coronavirus 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic drastically reduced air travel internationally during the spring of 2020. Such an extraordinary disruption of air traffic may have a profound effect on contrail formation that could allow for better quantification and scientific understanding of the radiative impacts of aviation-induced clouds on climate. This investigation synergizes MODIS, CrIS, and GOES-16 satellite analyses with weather analyses, including those from GEOS and MERRA, to compare contrail formation conditions and radiative forcings of linear contrails and thin cirrus detected over the contiguous United States (CONUS) and the North Atlantic for the 2020 air traffic slowdown period with parallel analyses conducted for a baseline period from a previous year with normal air traffic. A consistent analysis system for contrail detection and cloud property retrievals (e.g. optical depth, particle size, and altitude) from satellites, coupled with radiative transfer modeling are applied to characterize and contrast contrail cirrus properties and radiative effects estimated during the pandemic and baseline periods. Temperature and humidity profiles from numerical weather models and hyperspectral infrared measurements are used to estimate the contrail formation potential (CFP) over the study areas in order to help choose the most appropriate baseline period and to account for potential impacts of differences in meteorology on contrail formation and coverage. This study, using NASA satellite data and other assets, is expected to improve our understanding of the relationship between air traffic, contrail cirrus coverage and related impacts in order to better quantify the need for contrail formation mitigation strategies that could reduce aviation effects on climate.

William L Smith↗

NASA NTRS2019

Complex Dynamics of Air Traffic Flow

Air traffic in the United States has continued to grow at a steady pace since 1980, except for a dip immediately after the tragic events of September 11, 2001. There are different growth scenarios associated both with the magnitude and the composition of the future air traffic. The Terminal Area Forecast (TAF), prepared every year by the FAA, projects the growth of traffic in the United States. Both Boeing and Airbus publish market outlooks for air travel annually. Although predicting the future growth of traffic is difficult, there are two significant trends: heavily congested major airports continue to see an increase in traffic, and the emergence of regional jets and other smaller aircraft with fewer passengers operating directly between non-major airports. The interaction between air traffic demand and the ability of the system to provide the necessary airport and airspace resources can be modeled as a network. The size of the resulting network varies depending on the choice of its nodes. It would be useful to understand the properties of this network to guide future design and development. Many questions, such as the growth of delay with increasing traffic demand and impact of the en route weather on future air traffic, require a systematic understanding of the properties of the air traffic network. There has been a major advance in the understanding of the behavior of networks with a large number of components. Several theories have been advanced about the evolution of large biological and engineering networks by authors in diversified disciplines like physics, mathematics, biology and computer science. Several networks exhibit a scale-free property in the sense that the probabilistic distribution of their nodes as a function of connections decreases slower than an exponential. These networks are characterized by the fact that a small number of components have a disproportionate influence on the performance of the network. Scale-free networks are tolerant to random failure of components, but are vulnerable to selective attack on components. This paper examines two network representations for the baseline air traffic system. A network defined with the 40 major airports as nodes and with standard flight routes as links has a characteristic scale: all nodes have 60 or more links and no node has more than 460 links. Another network is defined with baseline aircraft routing structure exhibits an exponentially truncated scale-free behavior. Its degree ranges from 2 connections to 2900 connections, and 225 nodes have more than 250 connections. Furthermore, those high-degree nodes are homogeneously distributed in the airspace. A consequence of this scale-free behavior is that the random loss of a single node has little impact, but the loss of multiple high-degree nodes (such as occurs during major storms in busy airspace) can adversely impact the system. Two future scenarios of air traffic growth are used to predict the growth of air traffic in the United States. It is shown that a three-times growth in the overall traffic may result in a ten-times impact on the density of traffic in certain parts of the United States.

Scale-free Networks↗

NASA NTRS2008

Analysis of a Dynamic Multi-Track Airway Concept for Air Traffic Management

The Dynamic Multi-track Airways (DMA) Concept for Air Traffic Management (ATM) proposes a network of high-altitude airways constructed of multiple, closely spaced, parallel tracks designed to increase en-route capacity in high-demand airspace corridors. Segregated from non-airway operations, these multi-track airways establish high-priority traffic flow corridors along optimal routes between major terminal areas throughout the National Airspace System (NAS). Air traffic controllers transition aircraft equipped for DMA operations to DMA entry points, the aircraft use autonomous control of airspeed to fly the continuous-airspace airway and achieve an economic benefit, and controllers then transition the aircraft from the DMA exit to the terminal area. Aircraft authority within the DMA includes responsibility for spacing and/or separation from other DMA aircraft. The DMA controller is responsible for coordinating the entry and exit of traffic to and from the DMA and for traffic flow management (TFM), including adjusting DMA routing on a daily basis to account for predicted weather and wind patterns and re-routing DMAs in real time to accommodate unpredicted weather changes. However, the DMA controller is not responsible for monitoring the DMA for traffic separation. This report defines the mature state concept, explores its feasibility and performance, and identifies potential benefits. The report also discusses (a) an analysis of a single DMA, which was modeled within the NAS to assess capacity and determine the impact of a single DMA on regional sector loads and conflict potential; (b) a demand analysis, which was conducted to determine likely city-pair candidates for a nationwide DMA network and to determine the expected demand fraction; (c) two track configurations, which were modeled and analyzed for their operational characteristic; (d) software-prototype airborne capabilities developed for DMA operations research; (e) a feasibility analysis of key attributes in the concept design; (f) a near-term, transitional application of the DMA concept as a proving ground for new airborne technologies; and (g) conclusions. The analysis indicates that the operational feasibility of a national DMA network faces significant challenges, especially for interactions between DMAs and between DMA and non-DMA traffic. Provided these issues are resolved, sectors near DMAs could experience significant local capacity benefits.

Wing, David J.↗

NASA NTRS2020

Air Traffic Simulation Technology for High-Population Metroplexes

IAI's MetroSim optimizes air traffic by simulating departures, arrivals, and activity in air and onthe ground in busy metroplexes, where flights impact each other at a single airport and among traffic at nearby airports. MetroSim evolved out of several NASA SBIR/STTR Awards and has since been used by NASA for flight simulation analysis. MetroSim has also been integrated with FAA and DOT technology, has produced studies for the Port Authority of New York and New Jersey, and is under development to support the Navy

Cannon, Kimberly A.↗

NASA NTRS2017

Real Time Metrics and Analysis of Integrated Arrival, Departure, and Surface Operations

A real time dashboard was developed in order to inform and present users notifications and integrated information regarding airport surface operations. The dashboard is a supplement to capabilities and tools that incorporate arrival, departure, and surface air-traffic operations concepts in a NextGen environment. As trajectory-based departure scheduling and collaborative decision making tools are introduced in order to reduce delays and uncertainties in taxi and climb operations across the National Airspace System, users across a number of roles benefit from a real time system that enables common situational awareness. In addition to shared situational awareness the dashboard offers the ability to compute real time metrics and analysis to inform users about capacity, predictability, and efficiency of the system as a whole. This paper describes the architecture of the real time dashboard as well as an initial set of metrics computed on operational data. The potential impact of the real time dashboard is studied at the site identified for initial deployment and demonstration in 2017; Charlotte-Douglas International Airport. Analysis and metrics computed in real time illustrate the opportunity to provide common situational awareness and inform users of metrics across delay, throughput, taxi time, and airport capacity. In addition, common awareness of delays and the impact of takeoff and departure restrictions stemming from traffic flow management initiatives are explored. The potential of the real time tool to inform the predictability and efficiency of using a trajectory-based departure scheduling system is also discussed.

integrated arrival departure surface operations↗

DOE OSTI2022

Effects of vessel traffic and ocean noise on gray whale stress hormones

Human use of marinescapes is rapidly increasing, especially in populated nearshore regions where recreational vessel traffic can be dense. Marine animals can have a physiological response to such elevated human activity that can impact individual health and population dynamics. To understand the physiological impacts of vessel traffic on baleen whales, we investigated the adrenal stress response of gray whales (Eschrichtius robustus) to variable vessel traffic levels through an assessment of fecal glucocorticoid metabolite (fGC) concentrations. This analysis was conducted at the individual level, at multiple temporal scales (1–7 days), and accounted for factors that may confound fGC: sex, age, nutritional status, and reproductive state. Data were collected in Oregon, USA, from June to October of 2016–2018. Results indicate significant correlations between fGC, month, and vessel counts from the day prior to fecal sample collection. Furthermore, we show a significant positive correlation between vessel traffic and underwater ambient noise levels, which indicates that noise produced by vessel traffic may be a causal factor for the increased fGC. This study increases knowledge of gray whale physiological response to vessel traffic and may inform management decisions regarding regulations of vessel traffic activities and thresholds near critical whale habitats.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS1983

Satellite provided customer premise services: A forecast of potential domestic demand through the year 2000. Volume 3: Appendices

Voice applications, data applications, video applications, impacted baseline forecasts, market distribution, potential CPS (customers premises services) user classes, net long haul forecasts, CPS cost analysis, overall satellite forecast, CPS satellite market, Ka-band CPS satellite forecast, nationwide traffic distribution model, and intra-urban topology are discussed.

Kratochvil, D.↗

NASA NTRS1978

Characteristics of future air cargo demand and impact on aircraft development - A report on the Cargo/Logistic Airlift Systems Study /CLASS/ project

The considered study has been conducted to evaluate the future potential for an advanced air cargo transport. A current operations analysis is discussed, taking into account the traffic structure, modal cost comparisons, terminal operations, containerization, and institutional factors. Attention is also given to case studies, a demand forecast, and an advanced air cargo systems analysis. The effects of potential improvements on reducing costs are shown. Improvement to the current infrastructure can occur from 1978 to 1985 with off-the-shelf technology, which when combined with higher load factors for aircraft and containers, can provide up to a 16 percent reduction in total operating costs and a 15 percent rate reduction. The results of the analysis indicate that the proposed changes in the infrastructure and improved cargo loading efficiencies are as important to improving the airlines' financial posture as is the anticipated large dedicated cargo aircraft.

Whitehead, A. H., Jr.↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Traffic Prioritization on Deep Space Network Mission Traffic

A select number of missions supported by NASA's Deep Space Network (DSN) are demanding very high data rates. For example, the Kepler Mission was launched March 7, 2009 and at that time required the highest data rate of any NASA mission, with maximum rates of 4.33 Mb/s being provided via Ka band downlinks. The James Webb Space Telescope will require a maximum 28 Mb/s science downlink data rate also using Ka band links; as of this writing the launch is scheduled for a June 2014 launch. The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter, launched June 18, 2009, has demonstrated data rates at 100 Mb/s at lunar-Earth distances using NASA's Near Earth Network (NEN) and K-band. As further advances are made in high data rate space telecommunications, particularly with emerging optical systems, it is expected that large surges in demand on the supporting ground systems will ensue. A performance analysis of the impact of high variance in demand has been conducted using our Multi-mission Advanced Communications Hybrid Environment for Test and Evaluation (MACHETE) simulation tool. A comparison is made regarding the incorporation of Quality of Service (QoS) mechanisms and the resulting ground-to-ground Wide Area Network (WAN) bandwidth necessary to meet latency requirements across different user missions. It is shown that substantial reduction in WAN bandwidth may be realized through QoS techniques when low data rate users with low-latency needs are mixed with high data rate users having delay-tolerant traffic.

prioritization↗

NASA NTRS2011

The Impact of Traffic Prioritization on Deep Space Network Mission Traffic

quality of service↗

NASA NTRS2018

Effects of Aircraft Health on Airspace Safety

This manuscript investigates the effects of aircraft health on the surrounding airspace, and proposes a methodology to understand how different aircraft-level faults (system faults, communication faults, etc.) can adversely affect the safety of the airspace, and qualitatively assess the impact of such faults on airspace safety metrics (such as congestion, controller/pilot workload, etc.). The topic of systems health management deals with continuously monitoring the performance of an engineering system, identifying and detecting the presence of faults, predicting the growth/progression of faults, computing the remaining useful life, and aiding online decision-making for the robust, continued operation of such engineering systems. The topic of real-time airspace modeling and safety analysis deals with defining and computing safety metrics for airspace operations in order to support risk-informed decision-making activities for various airspace entities including pilots, air traffic controllers, airlines, etc. This report presents recent research efforts that focus on combining multiple aspects of the aforementioned topics, and investigates the impact of aircraft-level faults on the airspace safety

Aircraft Health↗

NASA NTRS2015

Differing Air Traffic Controller Responses to Similar Trajectory Prediction Errors: An Interrupted Time-Series Analysis of Controller Behavior

A Human-In-The-Loop simulation was conducted in January of 2013 in the Airspace Operations Laboratory at NASAs Ames Research Center. The simulation airspace included two en route sectors feeding the northwest corner of Atlantas Terminal Radar Approach Control. The focus of this paper is on how uncertainties in the studys trajectory predictions impacted the controllers ability to perform their duties. Of particular interest is how the controllers interacted with the delay information displayed in the meter list and data block while managing the arrival flows. Due to wind forecasts with 20-knot over-predictions and 20-knot under-predictions, delay value computations included errors of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions. However, when performing their duties in the presence of these errors, did the controllers issue clearances of similar magnitude, albeit in opposite directions?

human-automation interaction↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enhanced Safety of Heavy-Duty Vehicles on Highways through Automatic Speed Enforcement – A Simulation Study

Highway safety remains a significant concern, especially in mixed traffic scenarios involving heavy-duty vehicles (HDV) and smaller passenger cars. The vulnerability of HDVs following closely behind smaller cars is evident in incidents involving the lead vehicle, potentially leading to catastrophic rear-end collisions. Here, this paper explores how automatic speed enforcement systems, using speed cameras, can mitigate risks for HDVs in such critical situations. While historical crash data consistently demonstrates the reduction of accidents near speed cameras, this paper goes beyond the conventional notion of crash occurrence reduction. Instead, it investigates the profound impact of driver behavior changes within desired travel speed distribution, especially around speed cameras, and their contribution to the safety of trailing vehicles, with a specific focus on heavy-duty trucks in accident-prone scenarios. To conduct this analysis, we utilize SUMO, an open-source microscopic traffic simulator, enabling realistic simulations of real-world driving behaviors with and without speed cameras. The simulations also consider empirical distributions of desired headway gaps and reaction times exhibited by human drivers. This study offers a fresh perspective on highway safety by examining how the influence of automatic speed enforcement systems on driver behavior enhances the safety of HDV when faced with challenging situations. By shedding light on these dynamics, we contribute valuable insights to the ongoing research efforts on using technology to create safer roadways, ultimately promoting safer coexistence between heavy-duty and passenger vehicles.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗