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All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2023

GPS Spoofing Mitigation and Timing Risk Analysis in Networked Phasor Measurement Units via Stochastic Reachability

To address phasor measurement unit (PMU) vulnerability to spoofing, we propose the use of a set-valued state estimation technique known as stochastic reachability (SR)-based distributed Kalman filter (DKF) that computes secure global positioning system (GPS) timing across a network of receivers. Utilizing SR, we estimate not only GPS time but also its stochastic reachable set, which is parameterized by probabilistic zonotope (p-Zonotope). While requiring known measurement error bounds in only non-spoofed conditions, we designed a two-tiered approach. We first performed measurement-level spoofing mitigation via deviation of a measurement innovation from its expected p-Zonotope. We then performed state-level timing risk analysis via a determination of the intersection probability of the estimated p-Zonotope with an unsafe set that violates IEEE C37.118.1a-2014 standards. Finally, we validated our SR-DKF algorithm by subjecting it to a simulated receiver network to coordinate signal-level spoofing. We demonstrate improved timing accuracy and successful spoofing mitigation via the use of our SR-DKF algorithm. We also validated the robustness of the estimated timing risk as the number of receivers were varied.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Cyber-Secure and Safe Operation of Solar Photovoltaic Power Distribution Systems

Solar photovoltaic (PV)-rich power distribution systems are networked Cyber-Physical Systems (CPS). These are control systems where multiple computing nodes and diverse intelligent agents interact with the physical world in real-time. However, the presence of networked components renders them vulnerable to potential cyber-attacks, cyber-intrusions, and other malicious events. This is because these systems depend on the measurements reported from their heterogeneous sensors. This makes them vulnerable to potential cyber-attacks where malicious agents can compromise the sensors or the communication networks carrying the sensor measurements. This paper proposes a novel methodology for enhancing the cyber-security and cyber-resilient post-attack safe operation of solar PV-rich power distribution systems against potential cyber-attacks through the Dynamic Watermarking (DW), using online system identification. The resiliency of the proposed technique is tested and validated with several attack scenarios on both a lab-scale 3kW grid-connected PV inverter and a Hardware-in-the-Loop (HiL) system. The proposed approach can be applied to other types of power distribution systems to enhance their cyber-secure and cyber-resilient safe operation. This paper thereby contributes to the field of cyber-security of Cyber-Physical Energy Systems (CPES).

Kim, Jaewon↗

DOE OSTI2026

The Impact of Time-Aware Design Choices in ICS Anomaly Detection

Industrial control systems (ICS) remain vulnerable to increasingly sophisticated cyberattacks, yet evaluating anomaly detection models in these environments is challenging due to temporal dependencies, missing-not-at-random patterns, and extremely imbalanced datasets. These factors make common practices—especially random data splits and na¨ıve imputation— prone to severe temporal leakage, which can inflate reported performance and obscure real-world limitations. In this work, we systematically examine classical machine learning models, temporal deep learning architecture, and tensordecomposition– based methods on a gas-pipeline dataset using a fully temporally separated evaluation pipeline designed to mimic realistic deployment conditions. Our findings show that proper temporal handling and MNAR-aware preprocessing significantly alter the relative performance of popular anomaly-detection methods, providing practical guidance for designing reliable, leakage-resistant ICS intrusion-detection systems.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2020

Persistence and Plasticity in Conifer Water–Use Strategies

The selective use of seasonal precipitation by vegetation is critical to understanding the residence time and flow path of water in watersheds, yet there are limited datasets to test how climate alters these dynamics. Here, we use measurements of the seasonal cycle of tree ring δ 18 O for two widespread conifer species in the Rocky Mountains of North America to provide a multi-decadal depiction of the seasonal origins of forest water use. The results show that while the conifer tree stands had a dominant preference for use of snowmelt, there were multi-annual periods over the last four decades when use of summer precipitation was preferential. Utilization of summer rain emerged during years with increased snowfall and tree growth, suggesting that summer rain enhanced the transpiration stream only during the periods of highest water use. We hypothesize this could be explained through shallowing of the root profile during wetter periods and/or through the influence of changing water table depths on the residence time of summer precipitation in the root zone. We suggest the tree ring proxy approach used here could be applied in other watersheds to provide critical insight into the temporal dynamics of plant water use that could not be inferred from short measurement campaigns. Furthermore, these data on the seasonal origins of forest water are critical for understanding forest vulnerability to drought, the processes that affect precipitation pathways and residence time in watersheds and the interpretation of tree ring proxy data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Consistent Timing of Arctic Permafrost Loss Across the CESM1 Large Ensemble

Abstract The Arctic is especially vulnerable to climate change and is warming faster than the global average. Changes in this region pose a heightened threat due to the immense amount of carbon frozen as organic material in the soil. When permafrost thaws, organic material decays and releases as greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, contributing to further warming. A better understanding of the processes that influence permafrost degradation is needed to inform climate adaptation and mitigation planning. This study assesses changes to Arctic permafrost across 35 ensemble member simulations from the Community Earth System Model 1 Large Ensemble Project, under the Representative Concentration Pathway 8.5 21st century scenario. Most Arctic near‐surface permafrost is lost by 2100, but timing varies across regions and with soil depth. Internal climate variability, represented by differences between ensemble members, has a constrained influence on degradation timing due to relative consistency of summer temperature increases and insulation by winter snow cover.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Assessing the vulnerability of solar inverters to EMPs: Port testing, PCI modeling, and protection strategies

Renewable energy sources are becoming an ever-larger contributor to the power grid. These renewable energy sources depend upon the power electronic devices, specifically inverters, being essential for connecting Photovoltaic (PV) generation to the grid. However, the Electromagnetic Pulses (EMPs) caused by the high-altitude nuclear explosions can generate fast broad-band pulses with nanosecond rise time, potentially causing damage or destruction to electronic components. To assess the vulnerability of PV inverters to high-altitude EMPs, the port testing and Pulsed Current Injection (PCI) modeling schemes are proposed based on the port impedance analysis. Wide-band frequency measurements are achieved by fusing impedance results from three vector network analyzers. Then, a PCI model is used to simulate the induced response to EMP, with two typical immunity levels of EC5 and EC8 tested. Here, the experiment successfully excites the induced voltage and current under EMP, where the voltage and current can reach 1500V/40A and 8000V/150Aunder EC5 andEC8, respectively. The port vulnerability analysis results demonstrate that only some ports can survive under EC5. To defend against the impact of EMP, three protection strategies are discussed.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hybrid Data-Driven Based HVdc Ancillary Control for Multiple Frequency Data Attacks

The high voltage direct current (HVdc) intertie has been applied to provide ancillary-services for ac grids, utilizing the real-time feedback from phasor measurement units (PMUs). However, PMU data communication is vulnerable to false data injection attacks (FDIA) due to protocol defects, thus the HVdc ancillary control and system stability will be threatened. To address this issue, this article proposes a novel HVdc control strategy based on a hybrid data-driven (HDD) methodology. In this work, the HDD methodology is first proposed to detect the types and duration time of multiple frequency attacks. Specifically, the Hilbert Huang transform (HHT) is used to decompose the frequency data, using variational mode decomposition instead of the traditional empirical mode decomposition, to extract data features. Second, a multikernel support vector machine is proposed to classify the attacked data based on the designed distinctive features from HHT. Meanwhile, the attacking duration time is decided using an unsupervised technique. Third, an HDD-based HVdc ancillary control strategy is established to eliminate the effect of FDIAs on the HVdc frequency response. Comprehensive experiments of HDD-based HVdc ancillary controls under different FDIAs suggest that the proposed HDD could fast and accurately classify the FDIAs, and the HDD-based HVdc ancillary control strategy could significantly suppress the impact of the FDIAs.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Satellite Enveloped with STITCHED Engineering Sensors for Detection of Approaching Objects

Today as well as tomorrows spaceborne assets impact almost all areas of national and nuclear security. Spaceborne assets can not only collect and disseminate valuable data, well beyond just the visual, but also track terrestrial-based mobile assets in real-time, and active spaceborne platforms potentially pose serious risk to vulnerable earth-based systems and infrastructures. The capability to defend national spaceborne assets from attack/interference is critical for security interests. This effort supports this mission through the cost-effective preeminent detection of approaching threats to our nation’s vital resources, in order to help secure and trust these high-value assets against the threats of tomorrow. This project develops novel fabrication techniques for conformal, low-profile and lightweight leakywave antenna (LWA) detection/imaging systems, which fuses technical embroidery (TE) and laser ablation (LA) processes with LWA design. Technical embroidery is an emerging field in additive textile manufacturing where flexible materials and functionalized fabrics are created for a wide variety of uses and purposes, while laser ablation is the process of removing material from a solid surface by irradiating it with a laser beam. Here, thin, conformal antenna designs are designed, modeled and fabricated using both TE and LA, to create lightweight, flexible and conformal object detection and imaging radars. This novel development ensures our nation’s ability to field advanced lightweight and conformal technologies to protect spaceborne assets.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Time Synchronization Techniques in the Modern Smart Grid: A Comprehensive Survey

In modern smart grids, accurate and synchronized time signals are essential for effective monitoring, protection, and control. Various time synchronization methods exist, each tailored to specific application needs. Widely adopted solutions, such as GPS, however, are vulnerable to challenges such as signal loss and cyber-attacks, underscoring the need for reliable backup or supplementary solutions. This paper examines the timing requirements across different power grid applications and provides a comprehensive review of available time synchronization mechanisms. Through a comparative analysis of timing methods based on accuracy, flexibility, reliability, and security, this study offers insights to guide the selection of optimal solutions for seamless grid integration.

comparison↗

DOE OSTI2025

Precision Time Protocol Performance Testing Over Optical Transport Network

The US Department of Energy Office of Electricity has partnered with Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) to find alternative precision timing solutions for the nation’s power grid. This effort is in response to the vulnerabilities identified in the Global Navigation Satellite System (GNSS), of which the US Global Positioning System (GPS) platform is a part. Additionally, Executive Order 139055 has highlighted the need for alternative or backup timing solutions. ORNL has established a Timing Lab and has been testing various technologies and timing devices as part of this effort. Precision Time Protocol (PTP), and the off-the-shelf timing devices and network connections that support it, are among the alternatives being tested. This work reports the accuracy of PTP over an Optical Transport Network (OTN) and is part of a series published by the Center for Alternative Synchronization and Timing (CAST).

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Towards automated and real-time multi-object detection of anguilliform fishes from sonar data using YOLOv8 deep learning algorithm

Eels (Anguilla spp.), including American eels (Anguilla rostrata), European eels (Anguilla anguilla), and Japanese eels (Anguilla japonica), are species of critical management and regulatory concern due to their vulnerability to various stressors during downstream migrations. Accurate and efficient detection of migrating eels can improve our understanding of fish behaviors and fish-hydraulic structure interactions, thereby facilitating the design, operation, and optimization of more effective downstream passage facilities from both biological and economic perspectives. However, a real-time, automated framework for detecting migrating eels in real-world applications is currently lacking. Leveraging imaging sonar as a reliable technology for fish passage monitoring, field data are acquired using imaging sonar and then converted to single sonar frames/images for subsequent analysis. In this study, a framework based on the You Only Look Once Version 8 (YOLOv8)-based convolutional neural network is proposed for multi-object detection of eels and non-eel fish using the sonar images after image subtraction and additional wavelet denoising. The results from both training and testing phases demonstrate that the framework's ability can successfully detect both eels and non-eel fish in preprocessed sonar images, achieving F1-scores and mAP@0.50 exceeding 0.84. Additionally, the incorporation of wavelet denoising during preprocessing slightly improve detection performance. Furthermore, the transferability of this framework from eel to lamprey detection is demonstrated to be feasible given the similar morphological characteristics of these two species. Overall, the proposed framework achieves accurate and efficient detection of migrating eels, providing reliable and real-time information that can help conserve vulnerable eel and eel-like populations.

Deep learning↗

DOE OSTI2026

Characterization of Harsh Environments, At-Risk Microgrid Components, and Hardening Technologies (Report Version 0.1)

Microgrid implementation can help improve electrical service, reliability, and resilience for localized communities. However, they may be susceptible to damage from natural disasters and extreme weather events, which often coincide with times of greater community dependence on microgrids due to likely increased vulnerability of equipment on the main grid. Microgrid equipment can be protected against these hazards through various hardening techniques. The selection of hardening mitigations may depend on the actual risk of the hazard in the specific location and for the specific type of system, as well as cost and feasibility factors. This report summarizes a framework that can be used to characterize risk to a microgrid system from a list of natural hazards enumerated by FEMA. We also describe hardening techniques and mitigations that can be used for specific energy generation, storage, loads, and power delivery elements within a microgrid.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gramian-Based Characterization of Network Vulnerability to Nodal Impulse Inputs: Preprint

Impulsive inputs applied at influential nodes of a network system may result in undesirable behavior and degrade performance. This paper proposes the notion of vulnerability matrix (VM) to characterize the effect of impulse inputs on a network following either discrete-time or continuous-time dynamics. The VM describes the first-order effects of impulse inputs on edge flows and is based on the controllability Gramian. We provide explicit expressions for the elements of the vulnerability matrix for the class of directed line networks in terms of the edge weights. Simulations validate our results and highlight the utility of the proposed metric in capturing the transient effects of nodal impulse inputs on edge flows.

controllability Gramian↗

DOE OSTI2025

Monitoring the long-term performance of organic redox flow battery by a distribution of relaxation time analysis

Organic redox flow batteries hold great promise as an energy storage technology, but their intricate chemistry makes them vulnerable to various degradation mechanisms. Monitoring this degradation is essential for identifying the limiting processes within the cells. Electrochemical impedance spectroscopy (EIS) offers a straightforward, in-situ method for measuring the total resistance of an operating cell. However, to pinpoint the limiting processes during long-term cycling, EIS data must be complemented by other techniques. Distribution of relaxation time (DRT) analysis is particularly effective for differentiating resistance components. Here, in this study, we perform a comprehensive analysis of resistance evolution and the separation of anode and cathode contributions during long-term cycling of a full cell employing 7,8-dihydroxyphenazine-2-sulfonic acid (DHPS) as the anolyte. Separate analyses of the DHPS anolyte and ferri-/ferrocyanide catholyte were conducted using a symmetric cell setup. The relaxation times derived from symmetric cells facilitate the identification of peaks in the DRT profiles from the full cell. Importantly, the DRT profiles indicate a correlation between the evolution of charge transfer resistance and the chemical degradation of DHPS. The methodologies and results outlined in this study offer significant insights for developing diagnostic tools applicable to other types of redox flow batteries.

Distribution of relaxation time↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data Centers and Digital Assurance Introduction to Supply Chain and Cybersecurity for Data Centers, Session 1

The first session of the TADA (Technical Assistance for Digital Assurance) Data Centers Cohort Workshop, held on October 30, 2025, introduced foundational concepts of Digital Assurance in the context of data center and grid integration. Sponsored by the U.S. Department of Energy, the workshop brought together utilities, data center operators, developers, and vendors to address cybersecurity and supply chain vulnerabilities. The session emphasized the growing criticality of data centers within the electric grid and the need for secure, real-time, bidirectional communication. Participants explored the principles of Digital Assurance, including cybersecurity, cyber-informed engineering (CIE), and lifecycle security, and applied a threat-vulnerability-consequence framework to identify and mitigate risks at the data center–grid interface. Discussions covered a range of threats such as spoofed dispatch signals and insider threats, architectural vulnerabilities like SCADA interfaces and insecure protocols, and potential consequences including cascading grid failures. The session also raised strategic questions about business value, vendor assurance, and defining cyber boundaries and responsibilities. This foundational workshop set the stage for deeper technical analysis and the development of actionable frameworks in subsequent sessions. Session 1 of 3.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Security constrained optimal power shutoff for wildfire risk mitigation

Abstract Electric grid faults are increasingly the source of ignition for major wildfires. To reduce the likelihood of such ignitions in high risk situations, utilities use preemptive de‐energization of power lines, commonly referred to as Public Safety Power Shutoffs (PSPS). Besides raising challenging trade‐offs between power outages and wildfire safety, PSPS removes redundancy from the network at a time when component faults are likely to happen. This may leave the network particularly vulnerable to unexpected line faults that may occur while the PSPS is in place. Previous works have not explicitly considered the impacts of these outages. To address this gap, the Security Constrained Optimal Power Shutoff problem is proposed which uses post‐contingency security constraints to model the impact of unexpected line faults when planning a PSPS. This model enables, for the first time, the exploration of a wide range of trade‐offs between both wildfire risk and pre‐ and post‐contingency load shedding when designing PSPS plans, providing useful insights for utilities and policy makers considering different approaches to PSPS. The efficacy of the model is demonstrated using the EPRI 39‐bus system as a case study. The results highlight the potential risks of not considering security constraints when planning PSPS and show that incorporating security constraints into the PSPS design process improves the resilience of current PSPS plans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

A deep learning approach to real-time HIV outbreak detection using genetic data

Pathogen genomic sequence data are increasingly made available for epidemiological monitoring. A main interest is to identify and assess the potential of infectious disease outbreaks. While popular methods to analyze sequence data often involve phylogenetic tree inference, they are vulnerable to errors from recombination and impose a high computational cost, making it difficult to obtain real-time results when the number of sequences is in or above the thousands. Here, we propose an alternative strategy to outbreak detection using genomic data based on deep learning methods developed for image classification. The key idea is to use a pairwise genetic distance matrix calculated from viral sequences as an image, and develop convolutional neutral network (CNN) models to classify areas of the images that show signatures of active outbreak, leading to identification of subsets of sequences taken from an active outbreak. We showed that our method is efficient in finding HIV-1 outbreaks with R0 ≥ 2.5, and overall a specificity exceeding 98% and sensitivity better than 92%. We validated our approach using data from HIV-1 CRF01 in Europe, containing both endemic sequences and a well-known dual outbreak in intravenous drug users. Our model accurately identified known outbreak sequences in the background of slower spreading HIV. Importantly, we detected both outbreaks early on, before they were over, implying that had this method been applied in real-time as data became available, one would have been able to intervene and possibly prevent the extent of these outbreaks. This approach is scalable to processing hundreds of thousands of sequences, making it useful for current and future real-time epidemiological investigations, including public health monitoring using large databases and especially for rapid outbreak identification.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

An arbitrary Lagrange-Eulerian investigation of HRAM shallow jet pre-spurt formation and time sensitivities to impact plate dynamics

With dry bay fires persisting as a significant contributor to aircraft vulnerability despite chronicled developments in survivability technologies, an accurate fire prediction capability remains paramount for credible vulnerability assessments. Physics based modeling of the hydrodynamic ram (HRAM) fluid deposition process is a key component of such capability, wherein capturing the first instance of fluid spurt, referred to herein as shallow jet spurts, is a core focus. Such pre-spurts as they have been formerly identified have only been witnessed sporadically in HRAM spurt experiments. In this work, ALE3D, a first-principles multi-physics code was employed to model the shallow jet spurt phenomenon with spherical projectiles impacting water-filled tanks faced with aluminum panels, such that the underlying physics and sensitivities could be explored. Development and verification of the 2D axisymmetric model is described relative to trends observed in a prior experimental campaign. Results from the verified model suggest shallow jet spurts have at least a quadratic sensitivity to the fundamental vibrational mode of the impact plate across impact velocities 610–1829 m/s (2000–6000 ft/s). It is further explained how shallow jet spurts are arrested for impacts at the two extremes of plate rigidity. This research constitutes the first fluid-structure modeling of shallow jet spurts which future three-dimensional analyses will expound upon.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗