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At least 73 records · Page 4

Optimal trajectories for the aeroassisted flight experiment. Part 4: Data, tables, and graphs

The determination of optimal trajectories for the aeroassisted flight experiment (AFE) is discussed. Data, tables, and graphs relative to the following transfers are presented: (IA) indirect ascent to a 178 NM perigee via a 197 NM apogee; and (DA) direct ascent to a 178 NM apogee. For both transfers, two cases are investigated: (1) the bank angle is continuously variable; and (2) the trajectory is divided into segments along which the bank angle is constant. For case (2), the following subcases are studied: two segments, three segments, four segments, and five segments; because the time duration of each segment is optimized, the above subcases involve four, six, eight, and ten parameters, respectively. Presented here are systematic data on a total of ten optimal trajectories (OT), five for Transfer IA and five for Transfer DA. For comparison purposes and only for Transfer IA, a five-segment reference trajectory RT is also considered.

Miele, A.↗

A finite element method for diffusion dominated unsteady viscous flows

A general conforming finite element scheme for computing viscous flows is presented which is of second-order accuracy in space and time. Viscous terms are treated implicitly and advection terms are treated explicitly in the time marching segment of the algorithm. A method for solving the algebraic equations at each time step is given. The method is demonstrated on two test problems, one of them being a plane vortex flow for which asymptotic methods are used to obtain suitable numerical boundary conditions at each time step.

Gunzburger, M. D.↗

International two-way satellite time transfers using INTELSAT space segment and small Earth stations

The satellite operated by the International Telecommunications Satellite Organization (INTELSAT) provides new and unique capabilities for the coordinates of international time scales on a world wide basis using the two-way technique. A network of coordinated clocks using small earth stations collocated with the scales is possible. Antennas as small as 1.8 m at K-band and 3 m at C-band transmitting powers of less than 1 W will provide signals with time jitters of less than 1 ns existing spread spectrum modems. One way time broadcasting is also possible, under the INTELSAT INTELNET system, possibly using existing international data distribution (press and financial) systems that are already operating spread spectrum systems. The technical details of the satellite and requirements on satellite earth stations are given. The resources required for a regular operational international time transfer service are analyzed with respect to the existing international digital service offerings of the INTELSAT Business Service (IBS) and INTELNET. Coverage areas, typical link budgets, and a summary of previous domestic and international work using this technique are provided. Administrative procedures for gaining access to the space segment are outlined. Contact information for local INTELSAT signatories is listed.

Veenstra, Lester B.↗

MODIS Reflective Solar Band Calibration Improvements using Pseudo-Invariant Desert Targets

To provide the best science data quality, an accurate characterization of the response versus scan angle (RVS) function is critical for the MODIS reflective solar bands (RSB) on-orbit calibration. In every MODIS operational scan, the Earth’s surface, referred to here as Earth view (EV), the space view (SV) port, and the onboard calibrators are viewed via a two-sided scan mirror. The RVS is defined as the sensor’s relative response as a function the angle of incidence (AOI) to the scan mirror. Many different approaches have been developed to derive the time-dependent RVS and its look-up table (LUT) applied to MODIS Level 1B (L1B) products since calibration Collection 4. For most MODIS RSB, the on-board calibrators can reasonably track the RVS change with time. In practice, their RVS is derived using data from on-board calibrators and the EV mirror side ratio (for mirror side 2). For Terra bands 1-4, 8-10 and Aqua bands 1-4, 8-9, an enhancement has been employed in Collections 6 and 6.1 (C6/C6.1) by using Earth scene response trending from pseudo-invariant desert sites in addition to the onboard calibrators. The current C6/C6/1 RVS algorithm is focused on fitting the EV data at each AOI over time and then deriving the relative change at different AOI. The EV response trending is currently fitted with multiple segments over time. Alternatively, the EV responses can be fit first as a function of AOI before fitting temporally in order to reduce the dependence on the stability of the desert site. These pre-treatment methods on the EV data provide improvement in the derived calibration coefficients. However, evidence of insufficient calibration is still observed in the MODIS L1B reflectance data, especially in the form of differences between the mirror sides. In this paper, we review the current methodologies that utilize the EV response trends from the pseudo-invariant Libyan desert targets to supplement the gain derived from the onboard calibrators. An improvement is then proposed and investigated such that a sliding window average (SWA) is used to pre-process the raw EV data. The SWA parameters are carefully selected using trade-off studies to accurately track the Earth scene response trending in multiple cases to overcome the reflectance differences between two mirror sides. Calibration results show improvements for both Aqua and Terra MODIS RSB L1B data products. This new adjustment has been included in the recently delivered Collection 7 LUT that will be evident in the L1B products expected to be released in late 2021.

MODIS↗

The Cassini Solstice Mission: Streamlining Operations by Sequencing with PIEs

The Cassini Solstice Mission (CSM) is the second extended mission phase of the highly successful Cassini/Huygens mission to Saturn. Conducted at a much-reduced funding level, operations for the CSM have been streamlined and simplified significantly. Integration of the science timeline, which involves allocating observation time in a balanced manner to each of the five different science disciplines (with representatives from the twelve different science instruments), has long been a labor-intensive endeavor. Lessons learned from the prime mission (2004-2008) and first extended mission (Equinox mission, 2008-2010) were utilized to design a new process involving PIEs (Pre-Integrated Events) to ensure the highest priority observations for each discipline could be accomplished despite reduced work force and overall simplification of processes. Discipline-level PIE lists were managed by the Science Planning team and graphically mapped to aid timeline deconfliction meetings prior to assigning discrete segments of time to the various disciplines. Periapse segments are generally discipline-focused, with the exception of a handful of PIEs. In addition to all PIEs being documented in a spreadsheet, allocated out-of-discipline PIEs were entered into the Cassini Information Management System (CIMS) well in advance of timeline integration. The disciplines were then free to work the rest of the timeline internally, without the need for frequent interaction, debate, and negotiation with representatives from other disciplines. As a result, the number of integration meetings has been cut back extensively, freeing up workforce. The sequence implementation process was streamlined as well, combining two previous processes (and teams) into one. The new Sequence Implementation Process (SIP) schedules 22 weeks to build each 10-week-long sequence, and only 3 sequence processes overlap. This differs significantly from prime mission during which 5-week-long sequences were built in 24 weeks, with 6 overlapping processes.

Vandermey, Nancy↗

Quantitative analysis of regional myocardial performance in coronary artery disease

Findings from a group of subjects with significant coronary artery stenosis are given. A group of controls determined by use of a quantitative method for the study of regional myocardial performance based on the frame-by-frame analysis of biplane left ventricular angiograms are presented. Particular emphasis was placed upon the analysis of wall motion in terms of normalized segment dimensions, timing and velocity of contraction. The results were compared with the method of subjective assessment used clinically.

Stewart, D. K.↗

High accuracy OMEGA timekeeping

The Smithsonian Astrophysical Observatory (SAO) operates a worldwide satellite tracking network which uses a combination of OMEGA as a frequency reference, dual timing channels, and portable clock comparisons to maintain accurate epoch time. Propagational charts from the U.S. Coast Guard OMEGA monitor program minimize diurnal and seasonal effects. Daily phase value publications of the U.S. Naval Observatory provide corrections to the field collected timing data to produce an averaged time line comprised of straight line segments called a time history file (station clock minus UTC). Depending upon clock location, reduced time data accuracies of between two and eight microseconds are typical.

Imbier, E. A.↗

Hydrogen chloride and aerosol ground cloud characteristics resulting from Space Shuttle launches

Airborne measurements of gaseous HCl, gaseous and aerosol HCl, particulates, relative humidity and temperature were obtained in ground clouds produced during three Space Shuttle launches. Partitioning of HCl between HCl aerosol and gaseous HCl was investigated as the solid rocket exhaust cloud diluted with ambient air to evaluate the conditions under which aerosol formation occurs in the troposphere in the presence of hygroscopic HCl vapor. Equilibrium predictions for aqueous HCl aerosol formation generally agree with the measured HCl partitioning over HCl concentrations from 0.5 to 36 ppm. HCl concentration dispersion within four cloud segments at time t (min) was evaluated using the expression C = C(0) (t to the alpha power) where C(0) varied from 145 to 2250 ppm and alpha varied from -1.14 to -1.73. Aerosol fallout from the exhaust clouds was measured with time by monitoring HCl concentrations and aerosol distributions 100 m below the cloud as it drifted away from the launch site. Significant amounts of HCl were found to be removed by fallout of particles in the 80-220 micron diameter range up to 30 min after launch.

Sebacher, D. I.↗

An application of synthetic seismicity in earthquake statistics - The Middle America Trench

The way in which seismicity calculations which are based on the concept of fault segmentation incorporate the physics of faulting through static dislocation theory can improve earthquake recurrence statistics and hone the probabilities of hazard is shown. For the Middle America Trench, the spread parameters of the best-fitting lognormal or Weibull distributions (about 0.75) are much larger than the 0.21 intrinsic spread proposed in the Nishenko Buland (1987) hypothesis. Stress interaction between fault segments disrupts time or slip predictability and causes earthquake recurrence to be far more aperiodic than has been suggested.

Ward, Steven N.↗

Man-machine cooperation in advanced teleoperation

Teleoperation experiments at JPL have shown that advanced features in a telerobotic system are a necessary condition for good results, but that they are not sufficient to assure consistently good performance by the operators. Two or three operators are normally used during training and experiments to maintain the desired performance. An alternative to this multi-operator control station is a man-machine interface embedding computer programs that can perform some of the operator's functions. In this paper we present our first experiments with these concepts, in which we focused on the areas of real-time task monitoring and interactive path planning. In the first case, when performing a known task, the operator has an automatic aid for setting control parameters and camera views. In the second case, an interactive path planner will rank different path alternatives so that the operator will make the correct control decision. The monitoring function has been implemented with a neural network doing the real-time task segmentation. The interactive path planner was implemented for redundant manipulators to specify arm configurations across the desired path and satisfy geometric, task, and performance constraints.

Fiorini, Paolo↗

Structural analysis of vibroacoustical processes

The method of automatic identification of acoustical signals, by means of the segmentation was used to investigate noises and vibrations in machines and mechanisms, for cybernetic diagnostics. The structural analysis consists of presentation of a noise or vibroacoustical signal as a sequence of segments, determined by the time quantization, in which each segment is characterized by specific spectral characteristics. The structural spectrum is plotted as a histogram of the segments, also as a relation of the probability density of appearance of a segment to the segment type. It is assumed that the conditions of ergodic processes are maintained.

Gromov, A. P.↗

Numerical Study of Ammonia Leak and Dispersion in the International Space Station

Management of off-nominal situations on-board the International Space Station (ISS) is important to its continuous operation. One situation of concern is an accidental release of a chemical into the ISS atmosphere. In particular, introduction of ammonia into the cabin atmosphere can occur via the interface heat exchangers (IFHX) between the external thermal control system containing ammonia and internal thermal control system that uses water as a coolant to remove heat from ISS subsystems. Breach of the water/ammonia barrier of the IFHX can lead to a catastrophic rupture. Once the liquid water/ammonia mixture exits the ITCS, it instantly vaporizes and mixes with the U.S. Laboratory cabin atmosphere that results in rapid contamination of the cabin. The goal of the study is to assess the amount of ammonia in the Russian Segment by the time the crew is able to isolate the U.S. Segment. A Computational Fluid Dynamics (CFD) model for an accurate prediction of airflow and ammonia transport in the frozen flow field within the assembly complete ISS cabin was developed. The localized effects of ammonia dispersion are examined and discussed.

Son, Chang H.↗

NDARC NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft - Input, Appendix 4

The NDARC code performs design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance analysis, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. The principal tasks (sizing, mission analysis, flight performance analysis) are shown in the figure as boxes with heavy borders. Heavy arrows show control of subordinate tasks. The aircraft description consists of all the information, input and derived, that denes the aircraft. The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. This information can be the result of the sizing task; can come entirely from input, for a fixed model; or can come from the sizing task in a previous case or previous job. The aircraft description information is available to all tasks and all solutions. The sizing task determines the dimensions, power, and weight of a rotorcraft that can perform a specified set of design conditions and missions. The aircraft size is characterized by parameters such as design gross weight, weight empty, rotor radius, and engine power available. The relations between dimensions, power, and weight generally require an iterative solution. From the design flight conditions and missions, the task can determine the total engine power or the rotor radius (or both power and radius can be fixed), as well as the design gross weight, maximum takeoff weight, drive system torque limit, and fuel tank capacity. For each propulsion group, the engine power or the rotor radius can be sized. Missions are defined for the sizing task, and for the mission performance analysis. A mission consists of a number of mission segments, for which time, distance, and fuel burn are evaluated. For the sizing task, certain missions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; and for fuel tank sizing. The mission parameters include mission takeoff gross weight and useful load. For specified takeoff fuel weight with adjustable segments, the mission time or distance is adjusted so the fuel required for the mission equals the takeoff fuel weight. The mission iteration is on fuel weight or energy. Flight conditions are specified for the sizing task, and for the flight performance analysis. For the sizing task, certain flight conditions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; for maximum takeoff weight calculations; and for anti-torque or auxiliary thrust rotor sizing. The flight condition parameters include gross weight and useful load. For flight conditions and mission takeoff, the gross weight can be maximized, such that the power required equals the power available. A flight state is defined for each mission segment and each flight condition. The aircraft performance can be analyzed for the specified state, or a maximum effort performance can be identified. The maximum effort is specified in terms of a quantity such as best endurance or best range, and a variable such as speed, rate of climb, or altitude.

Rotorcraft Input↗

NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft: Input and Data Structures - Vol 2

The NDARC code performs design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance analysis, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. Figure 1-1 illustrates the tasks. The principal tasks (sizing, mission analysis, flight performance analysis) are shown in the figure as boxes with heavy borders. Heavy arrows show control of subordinate tasks. The aircraft description (figure 1-1) consists of all the information, input and derived, that defines the aircraft. The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. This information can be the result of the sizing task; can come entirely from input, for a fixed model; or can come from the sizing task in a previous case or previous job. The aircraft description information is available to all tasks and all solutions (indicated by light arrows). The sizing task determines the dimensions, power, and weight of a rotorcraft that can perform a specified set of design conditions and missions. The aircraft size is characterized by parameters such as design gross weight, weight empty, rotor radius, and engine power available. The relations between dimensions, power, and weight generally require an iterative solution. From the design flight conditions and missions, the task can determine the total engine power or the rotor radius (or both power and radius can be fixed), as well as the design gross weight, maximum takeoff weight, drive system torque limit, and fuel tank capacity. For each propulsion group, the engine power or the rotor radius can be sized. Missions are defined for the sizing task, and for the mission performance analysis. A mission consists of a number of mission segments, for which time, distance, and fuel burn are evaluated. For the sizing task, certain missions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; and for fuel tank sizing. The mission parameters include mission takeoff gross weight and useful load. For specified takeoff fuel weight with adjustable segments, the mission time or distance is adjusted so the fuel required for the mission (burned plus reserve) equals the takeoff fuel weight. The mission iteration is on fuel weight or energy. Flight conditions are specified for the sizing task, and for the flight performance analysis. For the sizing task, certain flight conditions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; for maximum takeoff weight calculations; and for antitorque or auxiliary thrust rotor sizing. The flight condition parameters include gross weight and useful load. For flight conditions and mission takeoff, the gross weight can be maximized, such that the power required equals the power available. A flight state is defined for each mission segment and each flight condition. The aircraft performance can be analyzed for the specified state, or a maximum effort performance can be identified. The maximum effort is specified in terms of a quantity such as best endurance or best range, and a variable such as speed, rate of climb, or altitude. The aircraft must be trimmed, by solving for the controls and motion that produce equilibrium in the specified flight state. Different trim solution definitions are required for various flight states. Evaluating the rotor hub forces may require solution of the blade flap equations of motion.

NDARC↗

NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft: Input - Vol 3

The NDARC code performs design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance analysis, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. Figure 1-1 illustrates the tasks. The principal tasks (sizing, mission analysis, flight performance analysis) are shown in the figure as boxes with heavy borders. Heavy arrows show control of subordinate tasks. The aircraft description (figure 1-1) consists of all the information, input and derived, that defines the aircraft. The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. This information can be the result of the sizing task; can come entirely from input, for a fixed model; or can come from the sizing task in a previous case or previous job. The aircraft description information is available to all tasks and all solutions (indicated by light arrows). The sizing task determines the dimensions, power, and weight of a rotorcraft that can perform a specified set of design conditions and missions. The aircraft size is characterized by parameters such as design gross weight, weight empty, rotor radius, and engine power available. The relations between dimensions, power, and weight generally require an iterative solution. From the design flight conditions and missions, the task can determine the total engine power or the rotor radius (or both power and radius can be fixed), as well as the design gross weight, maximum takeoff weight, drive system torque limit, and fuel tank capacity. For each propulsion group, the engine power or the rotor radius can be sized. Missions are defined for the sizing task, and for the mission performance analysis. A mission consists of a number of mission segments, for which time, distance, and fuel burn are evaluated. For the sizing task, certain missions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; and for fuel tank sizing. The mission parameters include mission takeoff gross weight and useful load. For specified takeoff fuel weight with adjustable segments, the mission time or distance is adjusted so the fuel required for the mission (burned plus reserve) equals the takeoff fuel weight. The mission iteration is on fuel weight or energy. Flight conditions are specified for the sizing task, and for the flight performance analysis. For the sizing task, certain flight conditions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; for maximum takeoff weight calculations; and for antitorque or auxiliary thrust rotor sizing. The flight condition parameters include gross weight and useful load. For flight conditions and mission takeoff, the gross weight can be maximized, such that the power required equals the power available. A flight state is defined for each mission segment and each flight condition. The aircraft performance can be analyzed for the specified state, or a maximum effort performance can be identified. The maximum effort is specified in terms of a quantity such as best endurance or best range, and a variable such as speed, rate of climb, or altitude. The aircraft must be trimmed, by solving for the controls and motion that produce equilibrium in the specified flight state. Different trim solution definitions are required for various flight states. Evaluating the rotor hub forces may require solution of the blade flap equations of motion.

NDARC↗

NDARC - NASA Design and Analysis of Rotorcraft: Input - Appendix 3

The NDARC code performs design and analysis tasks. The design task involves sizing the rotorcraft to satisfy specified design conditions and missions. The analysis tasks can include off-design mission performance analysis, flight performance calculation for point operating conditions, and generation of subsystem or component performance maps. Figure 1-1 illustrates the tasks. The principal tasks (sizing, mission analysis, flight performance analysis) are shown in the figure as boxes with heavy borders. Heavy arrows show control of subordinate tasks. The aircraft description (figure 1-1) consists of all the information, input and derived, that defines the aircraft. The aircraft consists of a set of components, including fuselage, rotors, wings, tails, and propulsion. This information can be the result of the sizing task; can come entirely from input, for a fixed model; or can come from the sizing task in a previous case or previous job. The aircraft description information is available to all tasks and all solutions (indicated by light arrows). The sizing task determines the dimensions, power, and weight of a rotorcraft that can perform a specified set of design conditions and missions. The aircraft size is characterized by parameters such as design gross weight, weight empty, rotor radius, and engine power available. The relations between dimensions, power, and weight generally require an iterative solution. From the design flight conditions and missions, the task can determine the total engine power or the rotor radius (or both power and radius can be fixed), as well as the design gross weight, maximum takeoff weight, drive system torque limit, and fuel tank capacity. For each propulsion group, the engine power or the rotor radius can be sized. Missions are defined for the sizing task, and for the mission performance analysis. A mission consists of a number of mission segments, for which time, distance, and fuel burn are evaluated. For the sizing task, certain missions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; and for fuel tank sizing. The mission parameters include mission takeoff gross weight and useful load. For specified takeoff fuel weight with adjustable segments, the mission time or distance is adjusted so the fuel required for the mission (burned plus reserve) equals the takeoff fuel weight. The mission iteration is on fuel weight or energy. Flight conditions are specified for the sizing task, and for the flight performance analysis. For the sizing task, certain flight conditions are designated to be used for design gross weight calculations; for transmission sizing; for maximum takeoff weight calculations; and for antitorque or auxiliary thrust rotor sizing. The flight condition parameters include gross weight and useful load. For flight conditions and mission takeoff, the gross weight can be maximized, such that the power required equals the power available. A flight state is defined for each mission segment and each flight condition. The aircraft performance can be analyzed for the specified state, or a maximum effort performance can be identified. The maximum effort is specified in terms of a quantity such as best endurance or best range, and a variable such as speed, rate of climb, or altitude. The aircraft must be trimmed, by solving for the controls and motion that produce equilibrium in the specified flight state. Different trim solution definitions are required for various flight states. Evaluating the rotor hub forces may require solution of the blade flap equations of motion.

NDARC↗

Development of the GeoNEX Level 2G Products: Exploiting the Diurnal Variability of TOA Reflectance in Atmospheric Correction

This study develops a new atmospheric correction algorithm to generate the Level 2G products, in particular the gap-filled Surface Reflectance at 10-minute time steps, for the Geostationary-NASA Earth Exchange (GeoNEX) project. The algorithm is based on the MODIS MAIAC (Multi-Angle Implementation of Atmospheric Correction) framework but with significant modifications to exploit angular/temporal information from the diurnal variability of the GeoNEX L1G TOA (Top-of-Atmosphere) reflectance. The algorithm starts by evaluating the roughness/smoothness of the diurnal time series of the TOA reflectance. Because rapid changes in TOA reflectance are generally caused by passing clouds or shadows, rough segments of the time series are automatically filtered out while the smooth segments are further tested for brightness and temperature to identify clear-sky and snow-free observations. Next the algorithm runs the MAIAC RTM (Radiative Transfer Model) to retrieve the Ross-Thick-Li-Sparse (RTLS) BRDF model parameters and the daily-mean atmospheric optical depth (AOD) that allow the RTM to optimally simulate the observed diurnal variability of clear-sky TOA reflectance. Once the initial RTLS parameters are retrieved after the algorithm’s burn-in period, they are used as the prior information to predict the AOD level for the next days, while the subsequent clear-sky observations are used to make necessary adjustments to the RTLS parameters in an continuous fashion. This “prediction-analysis” cycle is then iterated to process the full time series of the L1G data, skipping only total-cloudy days or when surface snow is detected. We tested the algorithm over a list of selected AERONET sites. The retrieved results (the daily mean AOD and the RTLS parameters) reasonably agree with the ground-based measurements. Importantly, the results indicate that the diurnal cycles of surface reflectance are continuous functions of the illumination-view geometry. Thus we can use the retrieved RTLS model to accurately fill in data gaps on partial cloudy days. Also, our algorithm is totally independent from the traditional approaches based on the use of spectral band ratios between the shortwave infrared (e.g., 2.2µm) and the visible (e.g., 0.47µm and 0.64µm) bands. Our results thus demonstrate that the high-frequent diurnal geostationary observations contain unique information that helps us improve atmospheric correction of remote sensing data.

GeoNEX↗

Can Machine Learning Reveal Precursors of Reversals of the Geomagnetic Axial Dipole Field?

It is well known that the axial dipole part of Earth’s magnetic field reverses polarity, so that the magnetic North Pole becomes the South Pole and vice versa. The timing of reversals is well documented for the past 160 Myr, but the conditions that lead to a reversal are still not well understood. It is not known if there are reliable ‘precursors’ of reversals (events that indicate that a reversal is upcoming) or what they might be. We investigate if machine learning (ML) techniques can reliably identify precursors of reversals based on time-series of the axial magnetic dipole field. The basic idea is to train a classifier using segments of time-series of the axial magnetic dipole. This training step requires modification of standard ML techniques to account for the fact that we are interested in rare events—a reversal is unusual, while a non-reversing field is the norm. Without our tweak, the ML classifiers lead to useless predictions. Perhaps even more importantly, the usable observational record is limited to 0–2 Ma and contains only five reversals, necessitating that we determine if the data are even sufficient to reliably train and validate an ML algorithm. To answer these questions we use several ML classifiers (linear/non-linear support vector machines and long short-term memory networks), invoke a hierarchy of numerical models (from simplified models to 3-D geodynamo simulations), and two palaeomagnetic reconstructions (PADM2M and Sint-2000). The performance of the ML classifiers varies across the models and the observational record and we provide evidence that this is not an artefact of the numerics, but rather reflects how ‘predictable’ a model or observational record is. Studying models of Earth’s magnetic field via ML classifiers thus can help with identifying shortcomings or advantages of the various models. For Earth’s magnetic field, we conclude that the ability of ML to identify precursors of reversals is limited, largely due to the small amount and low frequency resolution of data, which makes training and subsequent validation nearly impossible. Put simply: the ML techniques we tried are not currently capable of reliably identifying an axial dipole moment (ADM) precursor for geomagnetic reversals. This does not necessarily imply that such a precursor does not exist, and improvements in temporal resolution and length of ADM records may well offer better prospects in the future.

Kyle Gwirtz↗