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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2010

Secondary Impacts on Structures on the Lunar Surface

The Altair Lunar Lander is being designed for the planned return to the Moon by 2020. Since it is hoped that lander components will be re-used by later missions, studies are underway to examine the exposure threat to the lander sitting on the Lunar surface for extended periods. These threats involve both direct strikes of meteoroids on the vehicle as well as strikes from Lunar regolith and rock thrown by nearby meteorite strikes. Currently, the lander design is comprised of up to 10 different types of pressure vessels. These vessels included the manned habitation module, fuel, cryogenic fuel and gas storage containers, and instrument bays. These pressure vessels have various wall designs, including various aluminum alloys, honeycomb, and carbon-fiber composite materials. For some of the vessels, shielding is being considered. This program involved the test and analysis of six pressure vessel designs, one of which included a Whipple bumper shield. In addition to the pressure vessel walls, all the pressure vessels are wrapped in multi-layer insulation (MLI). Two variants were tested without the MLI to better understand the role of the MLI in the impact performance. The tests of performed were to examine the secondary impacts on these structures as they rested on the Lunar surface. If a hypervelocity meteor were to strike the surface nearby, it would throw regolith and rock debris into the structure at a much lower velocity. Also, when the manned module departs for the return to Earth, its rocket engines throw up debris that can impact the remaining lander components and cause damage. Glass spheres were used as a stimulant for the regolith material. Impact tests were performed with a gas gun to find the V50 of various sized spheres striking the pressure vessels. The impacts were then modeled and a fast-running approximate model for the V50 data was developed. This model was for performing risk analysis to assist in the vessel design and in the identification of ideal long-term mission sites. This paper reviews the impact tests and analysis and modeling examining the impact threat to various components in the lander design.

Christiansen, Eric↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

This presentation provides an introductory overview of key factors involved in the asteroid impact threat assessment and risk modeling performed for the Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical impact exercises.

ATAP↗
NASA NTRS2015

Rising Temperatures Reduce Global Wheat Production

Crop models are essential tools for assessing the threat of climate change to local and global food production. Present models used to predict wheat grain yield are highly uncertain when simulating how crops respond to temperature. Here we systematically tested 30 different wheat crop models of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project against field experiments in which growing season mean temperatures ranged from 15 degrees C to 32◦ degrees C, including experiments with artificial heating. Many models simulated yields well, but were less accurate at higher temperatures. The model ensemble median was consistently more accurate in simulating the crop temperature response than any single model, regardless of the input information used. Extrapolating the model ensemble temperature response indicates that warming is already slowing yield gains at a majority of wheat-growing locations. Global wheat production is estimated to fall by 6% for each degree C of further temperature increase and become more variable over space and time.

agriculture↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity. The first research area – meteoroid ablation mechanisms – has focused on performing novel high-enthalpy wind tunnel experiments on meteorites and meteorite analogs, and utilizing the resulting data to develop high-fidelity models for impactor mass loss at scale. These efforts have resulted in several insights. Of note, these data suggest a differential vaporization process where volatiles are liberated preferentially when the asteroidal material is subject to high heat, while refractory components remain in the molten layer on the surface. A numerical model has been developed which considers this phenomena, and its effect on the bulk impactors effective heat of ablation is examined. The second research thrust that is discussed is focused on accurate modeling of impactor radiation phenomena. While another submission to the conference will discuss the application of our approach to thermal ground damage modeling, here, we present an overview of our extensive efforts to utilize available ground- and space-based observations of large bolides (~1m diameter, and above) to inform and validate our detailed modeling approaches. These methods have been shown to accurately reconstruct the detailed spectra for the Benesov bolide, as well as approximate the burn footprint for the Tunguska event. Recent effort has focused on reconciling light curve data from multiple sources (all-sky camera networks, GLM, US government sensors), using our validated model, and providing a calibrated model for luminous efficiency which can then be utilized to infer impactor properties such as shape, mass, and composition. This work will be demonstrated through an exemplar case study focusing on a large bolide event with observational data (e.g. Chelyabinsk, Flensburg, etc.). Finally, our team’s assessment on the current maturity of atmospheric entry models, and priorities for future research will be provided.

ATAP↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Advances in Entry Modeling for Impact Risk Assessment

A summary of recent advancements in the detailed modeling of asteroid atmospheric entry processes made through NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project (ATAP) is presented. Understanding, and accurately modeling these processes and their associated uncertainties is critical to predicting all downstream impact effects, such as blast wave and thermal damage footprints. Furthermore, there is (perhaps thankfully) a dearth of empirical data for large impactors of the kind that would pose a threat to human populations, on which to anchor and/or validate models used in risk assessments. Therefore, we must rely heavily on detailed theoretical and numerical modeling to develop robust assessments for decision makers. To that end, ATAP has made some significant progress in advancing the capabilities in this area. Two areas in particular are highlighted in the present work: meteoroid ablation mechanisms, and bolide luminosity.

ATAP↗
NASA NTRS2023

Risk Assessment for Asteroid Impact Threat Scenarios

Asteroid impacts can cause a wide range of damage through multiple potential hazards, from localized blast waves or thermal radiation, to tsunami inundation, to global climatic effects. The level of risk posed by these hazards depends not only upon their extent and severity, but also upon the likelihood of the various damage ranges. Some consequences may be more moderate but very likely, while others may be unlikely but catastrophic. Evaluating the risk from these hazards involves substantial uncertainties across all aspects of the problem, including the properties of the asteroid itself, the specifics of its entry, and the complex high-energy damage physics involved. NASA’s Asteroid Threat Assessment Project performs Probabilistic Asteroid Impact Risk (PAIR) assessments that use fast-running entry and hazard models to evaluate millions of impact cases representing the distributions of these many uncertain parameters. This paper presents current probabilistic asteroid impact risk assessment modeling tools and approaches used for evaluating specific asteroid impact threat cases. We give an overview of the current PAIR model used to support impact threat scenarios and discuss some of the key applications of these assessment in supporting response decisions and planetary defense preparedness. We then present the results and key findings from the recent 2023 PDC hypothetical impact exercise as an example of the primary types of risk results and metrics being developed to inform and support those mitigation and response decisions.

SMD↗
DOE OSTI2026

Performing Numerical Analysis of Cybersecurity Options Using Dynamic Risk Analysis Tool EMRALD

Cyberattacks can have many different attack paths, durations, and goals. There are also many different mitigation options involving hardware, software, and/or humans. Considering a cyber threat should involve defense-in-depth methods and a quantitative or numerical evaluation of overall effectiveness against dynamic, time-dependent attacks to make cost and risk-informed decisions. Typical cyberattack modeling methods only provide a qualitative evaluation. The main areas of cybersecurity are confidentiality, integrity, and availability. For companies with cyber-physical systems such as advanced nuclear reactors, cyber-related safety is a requirement set by North American Electric Reliability and the U.S. Nuclear Regulatory Commission. They are also concerned about availability or reliability as a business case. As cyber threats are evolving to a business-for-hire structure, more attacks may focus on disrupting business success and reliability, causing financial and economic stability risk. Companies want to know business reliability and recovery from those threats, and that requires modeling physical behavior of the targets. Dynamic-state-based and Markov-based modeling provides a method for better cyber scenario modeling with different tools having issues such as state-base explosion. Dynamic modeling enables time and conditional features not found in other numerical evaluation methods. EMRALD (Event Modeling Risk Assessment using Lined Diagrams) is a dynamic risk analysis modeling and simulation tool and has features that reduce modeling issues. It has been used to model different time-dependent events including plant behavior and operator procedures. As a general modeling tool, EMRALD can also be used to model cyberattack scenarios with varying mitigation options and quantify effectiveness, producing numerical data for risk-informed decisions. This paper uses EMRALD to demonstrate that dynamic numerical risk analysis can be used for cyber threat modeling to provide insights for design decision-making and optimize defense strategies. Keywords: cyber modeling; cyber-physical systems; numerical cyber modeling

97 - MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Mitigating Impact Through Community-Engaged Flood Modeling

Urban pluvial flooding poses a growing threat to the city of Baltimore, driven by heavy rainfall, increased impervious area, and aging infrastructure. Adapting to the risks posed by pluvial flooding is critical for building greater climate resiliency in Baltimore's Inner Harbor Watershed. This study addresses these challenges through community-informed decision analysis, which uses hydrologic modeling and optimization tools to identify robust flooding adaptation pathways. We will collaborate with community partners to identify key concerns and objectives regarding flooding. These concerns have been purposefully built in to a combined surface-subsurface dynamic flow simulation model. Model outputs are used to identify flooding locations within the Inner Harbor, and to test adaptation methods. Machine learning will be used search for solutions which meet diverse environmental, financial, and social goals, and solution performance will be examined under a wide range of potential future climatic conditions and integrated with an adaptive planning approach. This novel set of adaptation pathways will enhance the City's capacity to respond to evolving pluvial flood risk.

climate resilience↗
DOE OSTI2025

GridSTIX

SF-25-112 Grid-STIX is a comprehensive extension of the STIX (Structured Threat Information Expression) 2.1 ontology specifically designed for electrical grid cybersecurity applications. This ontology provides a standardized, machine-readable framework for modeling grid assets, operational technology devices, threats, vulnerabilities, supply chain risks, and security relationships in electrical power systems. ## Key Features - **Comprehensive Grid Coverage**: Physical assets, OT devices, grid components, sensors, and energy storage systems - **Zero Trust Architecture**: Policy decision points, enforcement points, trust brokers, and continuous monitoring - **AMI Infrastructure**: Advanced metering networks, head-end systems, mesh gateways, and MDM systems - **Advanced Security Modeling**: Attack patterns, vulnerabilities, mitigations, and supply chain risks - **Critical Grid Relationships**: Power flow, protection, control, and synchronization relationships - **Supply Chain Security**: Supplier modeling, country of origin tracking, and risk assessment - **Protocol Support**: DNP3, Modbus, IEC 61850, IEC 60870-5-104, OPC-UA, and IEEE standards - **Python Code Generation**: Automated STIX-compliant Python class generation from ontologies - **Interactive Visualization**: Enhanced HTML network graphs with grid-specific categorization - **STIX 2.1 Compliance**: Full compatibility with STIX threat intelligence ecosystem

Blakely, Benjamin [Argonne National Laboratory (AN↗
NASA NTRS2017

Meteorite Material Model for Structural Properties

To assess the threat posed by an asteroid entering Earth's atmosphere, one must predict if, when, and how it fragments during entry. A comprehensive understanding of the asteroid material properties is needed to achieve this objective. At present, the meteorite material found on earth are the only objects from an entering asteroid that can be used as representative material and be tested inside a laboratory setting. Due to complex petrology, it is technically challenging and expensive to obtain reliable material properties by means of laboratory test for a family of meteorites. In order to circumvent this challenge, meteorite unit models are developed to determine the effective material properties including Youngs modulus, compressive and tensile strengths and Poissons ratio, that in turn would help deduce the properties of asteroids. The meteorite unit is a representative volume that accounts for diverse minerals, porosity, cracks and matrix composition. The Youngs Modulus and Poissons Ratio in the meteorite units are calculated by performing several hundreds of Monte-Carlo simulations by randomly distributing the various phases inside these units. Once these values are obtained, cracks are introduced in these meteorite units. The size, orientation and distribution of cracks are derived by extensive CT-scans and visual scans of various meteorites from the same family. Subsequently, simulations are performed to attain stress-strain relations, strength and effective modulus values in the presence of these cracks. The meteorite unit models are presented for H, L and LL ordinary chondrites, as well as for terrestrial basalt. In the case of the latter, data from the simulations is compared with experimental data to validate the methodology. These material models will be subsequently used in fragmentation modeling of full scale asteroids.

Meteorite↗
NASA NTRS2008

Use of High-Resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors aloft in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of cloud-resolving forecast models such as WRF, to forecast explicitly the threat of lightning from convective storms using selected output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C and the shape of the simulated reflectivity profile are tested in this study as proxies for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Our lightning forecast method differs from others in that it is entirely based on high-resolution simulation output, without reliance on any climatological data. short [6-8 h) simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dmmensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity fields, and METAR and ACARS data y&eld satisfactory simulations. __nalyses of the lightning threat fields suggests that both the graupel flux and reflectivity profile approaches, when properly calibrated, can yield reasonable lightning threat forecasts, although an ensemble approach is probably desirable in order to reduce the tendency for misplacement of modeled storms to hurt the accuracy of the forecasts. Our lightning threat forecasts are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting thunderstorms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, E. W., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS2020

SMARt-STEReO: Preliminary Model Description

Wildfires have increasingly become major threat to US towns and cities, with California alone having its most destructive wildfire seasons to date in 2017 and 2018 and 2020 already becoming one of the worst fire years on record, causing the large-scale evacuations, the destruction of towns and property, and a significant release of hazardous smoke over the entire west coast. Thus, the U.S. Forest Service recently spent over 50% of its budget on wildfire management – funds which could otherwise be directed to science that could support fire prevention. Aerial support plays a major role in fighting wildfires. Airtankers, helicopters, and other aerial assets support the construction of fire-lines, gather data, and transport crews and equipment. However, presently, aerial firefighting operations rely on relatively unsophisticated technologies for communications, such as over-the-air radios, which limit the ability of pilots and management to relay fire data and coordinate operations. Aerial operations in and around fires are additionally high-risk activities due to the variable, dangerous conditions and complex, technically difficult maneuvers which must be performed to, for example, conduct a retardant drop. Thus, between 2000 and 2013, of the 298 wildland firefighter fatalities, 26% were related to aerial operations. As a result, there is significant potential to both improve the performance and resiliency of wildfire response while reducing risk to human operators.

Daniel E Hulse↗
NASA NTRS2011

Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) Framework for Exercise and Response Planning

EmergenCy management personnel at federal, stale, and local levels can benefit from the increased situational awareness and operational efficiency afforded by simulation and modeling for emergency preparedness, including planning, training and exercises. To support this goal, the Department of Homeland Security's Science & Technology Directorate is funding the Integrated Modeling, Mapping, and Simulation (IMMS) program to create an integrating framework that brings together diverse models for use by the emergency response community. SUMMIT, one piece of the IMMS program, is the initial software framework that connects users such as emergency planners and exercise developers with modeling resources, bridging the gap in expertise and technical skills between these two communities. SUMMIT was recently deployed to support exercise planning for National Level Exercise 2010. Threat, casualty. infrastructure, and medical surge models were combined within SUMMIT to estimate health care resource requirements for the exercise ground truth.

Mapar, Jalal↗
NASA NTRS2006

Use of High-resolution WRF Simulations to Forecast Lightning Threat

Recent observational studies have confirmed the existence of a robust statistical relationship between lightning flash rates and the amount of large precipitating ice hydrometeors in storms. This relationship is exploited, in conjunction with the capabilities of recent forecast models such as WRF, to forecast the threat of lightning from convective storms using the output fields from the model forecasts. The simulated vertical flux of graupel at -15C is used in this study as a proxy for charge separation processes and their associated lightning risk. Six-h simulations are conducted for a number of case studies for which three-dimensional lightning validation data from the North Alabama Lightning Mapping Array are available. Experiments indicate that initialization of the WRF model on a 2 km grid using Eta boundary conditions, Doppler radar radial velocity and reflectivity fields, and METAR and ACARS data yield the most realistic simulations. An array of subjective and objective statistical metrics are employed to document the utility of the WRF forecasts. The simulation results are also compared to other more traditional means of forecasting convective storms, such as those based on inspection of the convective available potential energy field.

McCaul, William E.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Lightning current rate of rise in the new lightning flash model for the space shuttle program

The recently baselined Space Shuttle lightning effects flash model is discussed. The discussion is limited to the current rate(s) of rise. A review of some of the recent data is presented, as well as a discussion of how interaction processes affect the induced voltages and currents which arise from a lightning strike. It is concluded that the multiple pulse components of the new flash model present a more severe threat to complex avionic systems, than is presented by a single pulse having an extremely fast rate of rise.

Bankston, Nathaniel G.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Burst pressure models and validations for thick-walled pipelines containing corrosion defects

Corrosion is one major threat to pipeline integrity. Over the past decades, many corrosion models have been developed for determining the remaining strength of corroded pipelines, including ASME B31.G, Modified B31.G, LPC, PCORRC and their modified models. All these corrosion models are applicable only to large diameter, thin-walled pipelines with a diameter to wall thickness ratio D/t ≥ 20. In practice, many pipelines have a small diameter and thick wall with a D/t ratio < 20, and thus an adequate corrosion model is needed for assessing remaining strength for corroded thick-walled pipelines. This paper briefly reviews the theoretical burst pressure models for defect-free thin and thick-walled pipelines and four representative corrosion assessment models for thin-walled corroded pipelines. On this basis, two modified corrosion models are proposed to thick-walled pipelines in terms of the average shear stress yield theory. To verify the proposed corrosion models, comprehensive validations are performed. Numerical validations include the elastic-plastic finite element analysis to determine burst pressure for pipelines without and with corrosion defects and the model evaluation using a large dataset of available FEA results of burst pressure for machined defects. Experimental validations include a set of burst pressure tests for defect-free thick-walled pipes with different thicknesses and the model evaluation using one large burst dataset for machined defects with flat bottoms and another large dataset for real corrosion defects with curved river bottom profiles. Both numerical and experimental validations show that the proposed corrosion models can more accurately predict the remaining strength for corroded thin and thick-walled pipelines.

Pipeline↗
DOE OSTI2024

Graph-Based Modeling for the Detection and Tracking of Sarin-Surrogate-Induced Neurotoxicity Using a Human-Relevant, In-Vitro Brain Model

Organophosphorus (OP) nerve agents are a chemical threat to the United States, to the civilian population (e.g., pesticides) and historically weaponized (e.g., sarin) as chemical warfare agents. The unprecedented, accelerated process from “bench-to-bedside” during the SARSCov2 pandemic has made it clear that technology and tools need to be readily available for immediate response. Advances in human organ tissue mimetic systems are a promising technology to evaluate the human-relevant response in vitro for basic and applied research and drug screening. In particular, current brain microphysiological systems (MPS) have the capability to monitor and detect changes in engineered human neural circuit activity. However, current data analytics approaches for these systems lack the granularity to functionally detect and distinguish the different mechanisms that occur in the brain following neurotoxicity, injury, and disease. The goal of this project was to advance the computational analytical capabilities of the brain MPS to detect functional changes in neural circuit structure at different stages of Sarin surrogate-induced neurotoxicity. We developed graph-based models to (1) identify the composition of the neural circuit structure; (2) detect and monitor how this structure changes following sarin-induced neurotoxicity; and (3) evaluate the analytical pipeline using known/promising oxime reactivators. Through experiments on the bMPS where in vitro neuronal cultures were exposed to a sarin surrogate, we demonstrated the capabilities of our computational pipeline to identify different responses in the functional networks of brain cells exposed to low and high concentrations of the nerve agent. We identified a biphasic response of human neural network activity following exposure to a sarin-surrogate that had not been reported in the literature before. The graph-based models and software developed in this project can be used for future studies that leverage the brain MPS technology, such as treatment efficacy assessment.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗