Exploring the future energy-mobility nexus: The transportation energy & mobility pathway options (TEMPO) model
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Muratori, Matteo↗
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The Transportation Energy and Mobility Pathway Options (TEMPO) Model: Overview and Validation of V1.0 [Slides]
This presentation documents the approaches and methods used in the Transportation Energy & Mobility Pathway Options™ (TEMPO) model to evaluate passenger and freight demand for transportation and mobility services, project vehicle ownership and technology adoption decisions, and determine transport mode choices to derive scenarios of future energy use and emissions. TEMPO is an all-inclusive transportation demand model that covers the entire United States, with an implicit spatial resolution and an hourly temporal resolution that allows for generating time-resolved energy use profiles to assess multisectoral integration aspects. Key features of the TEMPO model include the ability to perform endogenous out-of-sample forecasting to extrapolate recent emerging trends and analyze impacts of disruptive technological breakthroughs and behavioral changes. TEMPO employs an innovative representation of passenger mobility demand stemming from household-level decisions that determine vehicle adoption, ownership, and use based on sociodemographics (e.g., income, household composition), technology attributes (e.g., travel cost, time), geography (e.g., urban, suburban, rural) and population-specific multiday mobility and travel requirements. This representation enables a more forward-looking perspective on the use of new mobility options and the adoption of alternative fuel vehicles, as well as a more accurate representation of their energy usage profiles than previous modeling approaches. A comparison with the U.S. Energy Information Administration’s Annual Energy Outlook showcases the ability of TEMPO to accurately replicate widely accepted projections by representing the key elements of the entire transportation sector at the appropriate level of resolution. TEMPO is intended to generate future scenarios of technology adoption, energy use, and emissions in the transportation sector to compare alternatives, inform decision makers, and assess integration with energy infrastructure and supply systems at an appropriate spatiotemporal resolution.
29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
Development of a Time-Height Profile Assimilation Technique for Large-Eddy Simulation
Mesoscale-to-microscale coupling (MMC) aims to address the limited scope of traditional large-eddy simulations by driving the microscale flow with information concerning large-scale weather patterns provided by mesoscale models. We present a new offline MMC technique for horizontally homogeneous microscale flow conditions, in which internal forcing terms are computed based on mesoscale time–height profiles of mean-flow quantities. The advantage of such an approach is that it can be used to drive a microscale simulation with either mesoscale or observational data, and that it does not rely on specific terms in the mesoscale budget equations, which are typically not part of the default output of a mesoscale solver. The performance of the proposed profile assimilation technique is assessed based on the simulation of a typical diurnal cycle over the Scaled Wind Farm Technology site in west Texas. Results indicate that simple data assimilation techniques lead to unphysically high levels of shear and turbulence caused by the algorithm’s inability to cope with inaccuracies in the mesoscale time–height profiles. Modifying the algorithm to account for vertical coherence in the mesoscale source terms gives the microscale solver a greater ability to correct the provided mesoscale time–height profiles, leading to improved predictions of shear and turbulence statistics. The resulting turbulence statistics are in good agreement with meteorological tower observations and simulation results obtained with state-of-the-art coupling techniques using mesoscale budget components.
data assimilation↗
Calibration of urban building energy model using smart meter data for district peak load prediction
Urban building energy modeling (UBEM) is a powerful approach to assessing baseline building energy performance and retrofits with new technologies across building stocks in cities. However, the accuracy of UBEM is often constrained by the limited availability of reliable data about building characteristics and operations, such as envelope efficiency levels, HVAC system performance, and end-use load patterns. Existing research has performed UBEM calibration using annual or monthly energy consumption data, which falls short when higher-resolution time series applications are needed, such as peak load prediction for utility operation planning. This study presents a new framework for calibrating building energy models at urban scale using smart meter data, targeting the accurate prediction of summer peak electricity loads to support robust grid planning. The framework first integrates various data sources to enhance baseline input assumptions for building models, and then calibrates the baseline models through a pattern-matching approach. A case study using CityBES and two years of AMI data from over 9000 residential customers in Portland, Oregon, demonstrated the workflow and its effectiveness. The calibrated models achieved a daily peak load mean absolute percentage error of 2.6 % during the heatwave in the calibration year, and 2.0 % in the validation year using another year of AMI data. Using the calibrated models, we analyzed the demand flexibility potential of the district building stock as an application of UBEM calibration. The findings affirm the appropriate use of UBEM for peak electric load forecasting and demand side management at the utility distribution system level.
AMI data↗
Component innovations for lower cost mechanical vapor compression
Despite significant capital and operating costs, mechanical vapor compression (MVC) remains the preferred technology for challenging brine concentration applications. Here, this work seeks to assess the dependence of MVC costs on feedwater salinity and desired water recovery and to quantify the value of improved component performance or reduced component costs for reducing the levelized cost of water (LCOW) of MVC. We built a cost optimization model coupling thermophysical, heat and mass transfer, and technoeconomic models to optimize and identify low cost MVC system designs as a function of feedwater salinity and water recovery. The LCOW ranges over 3.6 to 6.1 $\$$/m 3 for seawater feed salinities of 25–150 g/kg and water recoveries of 40–80 %. We then perform sensitivity analysis on parameter inputs to isolate irreducible costs and determine high value component innovation targets. The LCOW was most sensitive to evaporator material costs and performance, including the overall heat transfer coefficient in the evaporator. Process and material innovations such as polymer-composite evaporator tubes that reduce evaporator costs by 25 % without reducing heat transfer performance by more than 10 % would result in MVC cost reductions of 8 %.
42 ENGINEERING↗
Hydrogen Production Cost with Alkaline Electrolysis
Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Liquid Alkaline (LA) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH) range from 2020US $\$ 1.84$ to $\$ 2.88$/kg-H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$ 0.03$/kWh. The total installed capital cost for a LA electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and installed cost models that account for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the LA electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an EPC firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H 2 A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow model, were used to calculate the LCOH production in 2020$/kg-H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$ 0.03$/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Borehole Disposal: Update on the Science, Technology, and Potentially Suitable Radioactive Wastes - 20170
A recent Special Issue of the Energies Journal on Deep Borehole Disposal of Nuclear Waste has delivered a timely update on the science and technology of borehole disposal and the types of radioactive wastes it could potentially accommodate. The Special Issue papers discuss (i) circumstances under which a national waste management programme might wish to consider deep borehole disposal [1], (ii) a status report of deep borehole disposal options in Germany [2], (iii) the use of deep horizontal drill-holes in sedimentary, metamorphic or igneous rocks for disposal of spent nuclear fuel and high-level radioactive waste [3], (iv) the analysis of corrosion performance of engineered barrier systems [4], (v) a review of the potential cementing systems suitable for deep borehole disposal [5], (vi) the thermal evolution around heat-generating waste for a wide range of material properties and disposal configurations [6], (vii) a geochemical analysis of deep brines focussed on fluid-rock interactions [7], (viii) post-closure performance assessment calculations for deep borehole disposal of Cs/Sr capsules [8], and (ix) an example safety case for deep borehole disposal of nuclear wastes [9]. This paper provides an overview of the main findings from these publications and highlights some of the technological and scientific challenges that need to be overcome when developing a deep borehole disposal concept. (authors)
12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
Analysis of Tasks in Autonomous Systems Using the EMRALD Dynamic Risk Assessment Tool
An autonomous system refers to the system that has the power and ability for self-governance in the performance of system functions. Autonomous systems have been actively pursued in a variety of domains such as automotive, aviation, maritime, medicine, and nuclear fields. As an unmanned concept employing the highest automation level, the autonomous system basically performs most of the work in normal operations or emergency situations. However, despite advances in technology, many researchers have noted these systems still require human actions. The nature of human actions on autonomous systems is different than the human actions that are considered in existing systems. Nevertheless, only a few studies have been conducted on 1) characterizing the different types of errors and risks associated with human actions interacting with autonomous systems and 2) how to evaluate human actions in the autonomous operations. As a starting point, this study aims to investigate differences of tasks in autonomous operation compared to those in existing nuclear power plant operation using the Event Modeling Risk Assessment Using Linked Diagram (EMRALD) software. In this paper, insights aspect of human error and time are derived out and discussed based on the output of the EMRALD models.
99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
LAMP Technical Readiness Evaluation Report
An internal preliminary evaluation of Critical Technology Elements (CTEs) for the LANSCE Modernization Project (LAMP) was completed in 2023. This included determining corresponding Technical Readiness Levels (TRLs) for all subsystems using the criteria of DOE G 413.3-4A, Technical Readiness Assessment Guide. This revised report includes a summary of the recent design modifications required to meet the project Key Performance Requirements (KPPs), some of which may reduce technical risk to the project. These recent design modifications include: • Further optimization of the low-energy and medium-energy beam transport regions (LEBT and MEBT, respectively), including relocation of various functional elements (ie choppers, kickers, and bunchers). • An additional H - ion source to separate ion-source function based on beam delivery requirements. • A high-repetition-rate pulsed kicker magnet to select/merge the two H ion beams into a common low-energy beam transport. • Modification and further optimization to a more conventional RFQ design. Performance of the RFQ has been optimized to deliver the required three types of beams while meeting the project KPPs. • The addition of a second chopper in the medium-energy beam transport (MEBT) line to reduce the required pulser voltages. The scope of the evaluation was limited to the project Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) elements as defined for the RFQ Injector and Drift Tube Linac (DTL) systems only. Integration of Instrumentation and Controls (I&C) and Safety Systems was not considered, although specific technologies as related to the RFQ and DTL systems were included. Other elements of the project such as Shielding, System Design, Technical Management, and additional facility integration needed to enable off-line testing and pre-installation commissioning were also not evaluated. Each technical subsystem element was evaluated for technical readiness, however, not all were found to meet the criteria for a CTE. Three subsystem elements were determined to meet the CTE criteria. Their associated TRLs are summarized in the table below. These subsystem elements of the project have the lowest technical readiness due to either being new, novel or modified, requiring additional R&D before being capable of meeting the project Key Performance Parameters (KPPs) and subsystem requirements, or present technology exists but has not yet been demonstrated in a relevant environment. All other subsystems were determined to have a TRL of 8, indicating that actual operating systems exist having similar performance requirements as needed for LAMP. Details of the technical readiness evaluation for each subsystem is given in the following sections of this report.
43 PARTICLE ACCELERATORS↗
reV (The Renewable Energy Potential Model - Open Source) [SWR-21-59, SWR-20-20 and SWR-17-34]
The Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model is a platform for the detailed assessment of renewable energy resources and their geospatial intersection with grid infrastructure and land use characteristics. The reV model currently supports photovoltaic (PV), concentrating solar power (CSP), and land-based wind turbine technologies. Modules in the reV framework function at different spatial and temporal resolutions, allowing for the assessment of resource potential, technical potential, and supply curves at varying levels of detail. The platform runs on the National Renewable Energy Laboratory’s (NREL’s) high-performance computing system, providing scalable and efficient performance from a single location up to a continent, for a single year or decades of time-series resource data. Coupled with NREL’s System Advisor Model (SAM), reV supports resource assessments from 5-minute to hourly temporal resolutions and supports the analysis of long-term (i.e., year-on-year) variability of renewable generation (e.g., interannual variability and exceedance probabilities).
Maclaurin, Galen↗
A Comprehensive Simulation Study to Evaluate Future Vehicle Energy and Cost Reduction Potential
Under the umbrella of EERE’s Office of Sustainable Transportation, the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Vehicle Technologies Office (VTO) and Hydrogen and Fuel Cell Technologies Office (HFTO) seek to develop sustainable, affordable, and efficient technologies for transportation of goods and people. Translating investments in advanced transportation component technologies and powertrains to estimate the potential for vehicle-level fuel savings is critical to understanding DOE’s impact and success in this mission For this study, Argonne National Laboratory (Argonne) simulated technologies funded by VTO and HFTO for light-duty vehicles across the following: Powertrain configurations (conventional, power-split hybrid electric vehicle, extended-range electric vehicle, battery electric drive, and fuel-cell vehicles); Vehicle classes (compact car, mid-size car, small sport utility vehicle [SUV], mid-size SUV, and pickup truck); Fuels (gasoline, diesel, natural gas, hydrogen, and battery electricity). We assessed each technology for five different timeframes: laboratory years 2015 (reference), 2020, 2025, 2030, and 2045. We assumed a delay of 5 years between laboratory year and model year (i.e., the year the technology is introduced into production). Finally, we included uncertainties for both technology performance and cost by considering two cases (note that these cases are not intended as predictions of future performance): Low case , aligned with DOE technology manager estimates of expected original equipment manufacturer (OEM) improvements based on business as usual regulatory and market environments; High case , aligned with aggressive technology advancements based on research and development (R&D) targets developed through support by VTO and HFTO. We estimated the energy and cost impact of different technologies using Autonomie (Argonne undated), a state-of-the-art vehicle system simulation tool developed by Argonne and used to assess the energy consumption, performance, and cost of multiple advanced vehicle technologies. The tool comprises a complete set of vehicle models to assess impacts across a wide range of classes (from light- to heavy-duty), powertrain configurations (from conventional to hybrid electric vehicles [HEVs], fuel cell electric vehicles [FCEVs], plug-in hybrid electric vehicles [PHEVs], and battery electric vehicles [BEVs]), components, and control strategies, including vehicle-level and component-level controls developed and calibrated using dynamometer test data. Autonomie has been used to support a wide range of studies: analyzing various component technologies, sizing powertrain components to meet different vehicle requirements, comparing the benefits of powertrain configurations, optimizing both heuristic and route-based vehicle energy control, and predicting transportation energy use when paired with a traffic modeling tool such as POLARIS. This report documents the assumptions made and the vehicle-level energy consumption benefits and associated technology costs estimated for various types of light-duty vehicles. Details regarding vehicle assumptions and simulation results are available in the spreadsheets accompanying this report.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Electrical Fault Detection, Power Quality, Distributed Energy Resource Use Cases, and Cyber Event Applications with the Cyber Grid Guard System Using Distributed Ledger Technology
Electrical utilities continue to deploy more intelligent electronic devices (IEDs) inside and outside electrical substation and are associated with distributed energy resources (DERs). The integrity and confidentiality of data from IEDs is crucial, and distributed ledger technology (DLT) could improve the resilience of microgrids by helping to make these data more secure. The most popular applications using blockchain technology for electrical utilities is in the field is based on energy trading. However, the dynamism of the penetration of customer owned DERs and the deployment of sensors with IEDs have led to the identification of new applications using DLT that are focused on other areas, such as monitoring, operation and management of the grid and its assets. In addition, the majority of studies on electrical grid applications with blockchain were validated with software simulations. Although general monitoring of power systems for using DLT could be evaluated in operational electric grids, other DLT research applications such as defense against cyber-attacks and/or electrical fault detection are not likely to be performed in a real infrastructure because of possible risks to the network/equipment security. This report summarizes the application of power system applications using distributed ledger technology (DLT), providing a secure DLT framework for collecting data from IEDs like power meters and protective relays inside and outside of an electrical substation and/or between two different electrical utilities. In this study, the use case scenarios were created and assessed for different power system application by using DLT. The electrical fault detection for faulted phases (1), power quality monitoring of phase voltage magnitudes, frequency levels and load power factor (2), DERs use case monitoring (3), and cyber-event applications (4) were performed in a test bed with a Cyber-Grid Guard (CGG) system using DLT. It had a real-time simulator with power meters and protective relays in-the-loop. The first section of this report presents a literature review of power system applications using blockchain at research level. The second section shows the theory and equations used on this report. The third section shows the description of the test bed, equipment, architecture, and electrical grid diagrams. The fourth section shows the experimental models and use case scenarios that were performed for the electrical fault detection, power quality, DERs use case, and cyber event applications with the CGG system using DLT. The fifth section shows the results collected from the tests based on comparing the time stamped events of the analog signals from the IEDs, DLT computer and real time simulator. The sixth section performed the discussion of the results for the use case scenarios. Finally, section seven presents the conclusions for this report were presented.
24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
Hydrogen Production Cost with Anion Exchange Membrane Electrolysis
Rigorous stakeholder-vetted techno-economic analysis was performed to assess the cost of hydrogen (H 2 ) produced using state-of-the-art Anion Exchange Membrane (AEM) electrolysis. Projected high-volume, untaxed and unsubsidized levelized cost of hydrogen (LCOH)1 range from 2020 $\$$1.78 to $\$$3.68/kg H 2 depending on technology year, process design, and electrolyzer project scale, assuming an electricity price of $\$$0.03/kWh and a capacity factor of 97%. The total installed capital cost for an AEM electrolysis plant was estimated from bottom-up stack and process plant cost models. The stack cost model accounts for manufacturing equipment, equipment maintenance, material, tooling, cycle time, yield, labor, utilities and general overhead. The process plant cost model accounts for purchased equipment, installation costs, site preparation, and general overhead costs. For this study, the AEM electrolysis plant is assumed to be a stick-built, greenfield project developed by an engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) firm with electrolysis stacks purchased directly from an electrolysis stack manufacturer. The price of the electrolysis stacks is based on a bottom-up cost assessment with business markup for the electrolysis company fabricator. Methods from the Hydrogen Analysis (H2A) production model, a peer-reviewed national laboratory-developed discounted cash flow (DCF) model, were used to calculate the production LCOH in 2020 $\$$/kg H 2 . The baseline electricity price case ($\$$0.03/kWh) corresponds to average wholesale electricity prices currently possible in U.S. markets with plentiful wind. Similar low-cost electricity pricing is possible from solar Power Purchase Agreements (PPA) although these prices are typically limited by renewable energy capacity factors.
08 HYDROGEN↗
Geothermal Power Systems Analysis: Outcome of Industry Stakeholders Workshop: Preprint
Geothermal cost and performance evaluation implemented via technoeconomic assessment (TEA) modeling is critical for the Department of Energy (DOE) and other geothermal industry stakeholders in assessing the current state of geothermal technologies and to identify existing hurdles to commercially viable geothermal development. The Geothermal Electricity Technology Evaluation Model (GETEM) is a major TEA tool used in estimating the economic feasibility and levelized cost of energy (LCOE) of conventional hydrothermal systems and enhanced geothermal systems (EGS). Since 2021, GETEM has been transitioning from an intricate spreadsheet model to a user-friendly tool within the System Advisor Model (SAM) developed by the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL). Apart from enabling an expanded visibility of the geothermal model among other renewable resources, having GETEM in SAM has the advantage of simulation automation, better usability, updates tracking, active user inputs/feedback, and extended financial modeling. GETEM is used in developing supply curves for the Annual Technology Baseline (ATB). The ATB data are inputs to the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) and the Regional Energy Deployment System (ReEDS) models. The geothermal module in NREL’s reV model assesses the geothermal energy potential in the conterminous United States by defining the geospatial intersection of geothermal resources with existing grid infrastructure within the constraint of land use characteristics. The ReEDS model is a capacity expansion model used for simulating the long-term build-out and operation of the US generation and transmission system based on current energy costs and policies. To ensure enhanced representation of current industry trends in our model transitions and development, we organized a two-day virtual workshop to elicit geothermal industry stakeholder input and recommendations on our current approaches and assumptions on technoeconomic, resource assessment, and deployment scenarios modeling of geothermal technologies. Participants included developers, operators, investors, regulatory agencies, system modelers, national laboratory researchers, consultants, and other stakeholders. In this workshop, we gained stakeholder insights on current geothermal plant performance (i.e., capacity factors), updated drilling costs and learning curves, and next generation technologies such as closed loop and superhot rock geothermal. Other outcomes from this workshop and its impact on future geothermal development feasibility, resource availability, and capacity expansion studies are compiled and discussed.
Annual Technology Baseline↗
Subscale maturation of advanced reactor technologies (SMART): A path forward for nuclear thermal propulsion fuel and reactor development
Nuclear Thermal Propulsion (NTP) systems are actively being developed for future crewed missions to Mars. NTP systems excel in missions where both high thrust and high specific impulse are required, but modern NTP systems currently do not have a Technology Readiness Level (TRL) high enough for use in crewed space exploration. TRLs are used to demonstrate the level of rigor with which a component/system has been tested/demonstrated for its intended use. While space systems technology in general must be qualified as a unit, nuclear technology must be first demonstrated to meet qualification level requirements both at the fuel (component) level and the reactor (subsystem) level. Here, in this paper, historic NTP development programs are surveyed to identify a testing and development strategy that can be effectively implemented to allow for NTP reactor development. Based on this strategy, required facilities to enable such activities are identified. Current domestic experimental capabilities to support NTP qualification are limited to separate effects testing of individual components. Separate effects testing is found extensively in historic NTP development efforts but is not sufficient for full fuel and reactor qualification. Combined effects testing allows for an accurate assessment of fuel performance but is not achievable for NTP conditions in existing facilities. Assessment of historic development programs suggests that an intermediate, subscale test facility is necessary to advance NTP TRLs. A solution to meet this need is proposed, namely the Subscale Maturation of Advanced Reactor Technologies (SMART) facility. SMART will mitigate risk to NTP development by enabling performance and reactor physics demonstrations of NTP subsystems. A SMART facility could be built by modifying existing nuclear test facilities, which may potentially enable schedule and cost savings. To pursue reactor qualification beyond the subscale, a new ground test facility will be necessary. This ground test facility should be developed concurrently with SMART to allow for the facility to be operational in time for expedited NTP engine demonstration.
73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Global Experiences with HPC Operational Data Measurement, Collection and Analysis
As we move into the exascale era, supercomputers grow larger, denser, more heterogeneous, and ever more complex. Operating such machines reliably and efficiently requires deep insight into the operational parameters of the machine itself as well as its supporting infrastructure. To fulfill this need, early adopter sites have started the development and deployment of Operational Data Analytics (ODA) frameworks allowing the continuous monitoring, archiving, and analysis of near realtime performance data from the machine and infrastructure levels, providing immediately actionable information for multiple operational uses. To understand their ODA goals, requirements, and use cases, we have conducted a survey among eight early adopter sites from the US, Europe, and Japan that operate top 50 high-performance computing systems. We have assessed the technologies leveraged to build their ODA frameworks, identified use cases and other push and pull factors that drive the sites' ODA activities, and report on their operational lessons.
Ott, Michael↗
Study of Additive Manufacturing Applications to Geothermal Technologies Final Project Report
This report summarizes work performed to assess the potential for utilizing additive manufacturing (AM) to substantially improve either the availability, performance or cost basis for tools and components that are required for geothermal energy production. A systematic cataloging of geothermal activities, associated technologies, and current manufacturing methods was first undertaken. This included literature reviews as well as interviews with subject matter experts, service companies and OEMs. An industry workshop was held as part of this portion of the project to obtain input and concerns from a broad range of OEMs, service providers and end users. This workshop was also used to gage the current level of AM activity in industry, receptiveness to the use of AM manufactured parts, and any up front concerns that may exist. A summary of the workshop is presented in this report. Representative components and assemblies and their current manufacturing methods were then analyzed by additive manufacturing experts at a company called Senvol to determine the feasibility and required steps for producing parts by additive manufacturing. A step by step description of conventional manufacturing of the parts was also performed to establish a manufacturing baseline for comparison purposes. This analysis also considered and described the benefits of additively manufacturing the parts in terms of specific AM systems, material availability for AM, dimensional requirements and potential economic advantages. Details of the manufacturability assessment were summarized in a report which is included as a chapter in this document. The analysis of the AM subject matter experts was then be used by techno-economic analysts to perform a comparative economic evaluation of the manufacturing of select technologies by AM and conventional approaches. This activity leveraged ORNL expertise and prior experience in other applications. A framework based on assessing cost, volume production considerations, and time to manufacture was created to more easily discern the advantages or disadvantages of additive versus conventional manufacturing methods. The report concludes with a general assessment of the current applicability of AM for geothermal technologies, AM gaps and needs related to typical geothermal hardware, and the potential benefits and impacts of AM to geothermal energy production.
15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
Life-Cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-Source Numerical Models (LiAISON) for Analyzing Emerging Low-Carbon Technologies
Decarbonizing the industrial sector is a significant challenge in achieving a net-zero greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions economy by 2050 and the Paris Agreement, i.e., a global climate change mitigation target of achieving a maximum average temperature change potential of 1.5 degrees C or less by 2100 with respect to pre-industrial levels. In the United States (US), the industrial sector accounts for 23% of total GHG emissions and is home to a number of hard-to-electrify activities. The chemicals subsector has the single largest subsector emissions profile after direct emissions from fossil fuel combustion and leakage from fossil fuel distribution systems. Within the chemicals subsector, many processes depend on hydrogen or ammonia precursors. Decarbonizing these two commodities would contribute significantly to decarbonizing the industrial sector as hydrogen could also be used for low carbon steel production (e.g., hydrogen-based direct reduction of iron) and other industrial applications. Emerging technologies require the application of prospective life cycle assessment (LCA), which can account for technology (foreground) scaling and process improvements via learning-by-doing, among others. In many cases, the future system context (background) in which the technologies are assumed to operate in is equally relevant. Background scenarios generated by integrated assessment models (IAM) can coherently incorporate potential future dynamics of the energy-climate-human-land system. Further, IAM scenarios are harmonized across socioeconomic and climate change mitigation pathways, which facilitates the comparability of prospective LCAs using different IAMs. We introduce an open source prospective LCA framework, the Life-cycle Assessment Integration into Scalable Open-source Numerical models (LiAISON), to analyze the non-linear relationships between technology foreground and the future energy system background across a series of midpoint and resource use metrics The integration of LCA and IAM data is achieved using prospective environmental Impact assessment (PREMISE). We showcase it by assessing two Power-to-Hydrogen (PtH2) processes, namely Solid Oxide Electrolysis (SOE) and Polymer Electrolyte Membrane Electrolysis (PEME). We compare the technologies to a baseline of hydrogen production via natural gas-based Steam Methane Reforming (SMR) in a US context of multiple energy system and climate change mitigation futures. Besides providing an analysis that specifies the LCA results ranges with temporal and geospatial explicitness across the two technologies, metrics, and impact assessment methods, this research also aims to establish a base framework that can be expanded to use other IAM generated scenarios and US open-source life cycle inventory (LCI) databases. We find that the temporal environmental performance of either technology or their difference to SMR is directly influenced by the underlying background dynamics. Under baseline projections (i.e., no decarbonization goals), neither process reaches parity with the incumbent technology across several environmental metrics. Under the decarbonization scenarios, the underlying sectoral shifts result in declining impacts over time, compared to 2020 levels, except for metal depletion levels, which increase. The background shifts postulate a heavily decarbonized economy and energy system, which help technologies reach parity with SMR between 2040-2050 (RCP2.6) and 2030-2040 (RCP1.9) for global warming. Despite declines across several other metrics over time, neither PtH2 technology break even with SMR by 2100 besides for global warming.
decarbonizing↗