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At least 73 records · Page 4

Parcel-Scale Assessment of Rooftop Solar Technical Potential

Understanding the potential for rooftop solar and other distributed energy resources (DERs) to contribute to power system planning is increasingly relevant for cities, utilities, and other planning entities. Such planning efforts typically require an estimate of technical potential, or the feasible technology potential independent of economic considerations. Currently, best-in-class rooftop solar technical potential methods use Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data which can identify each roof plane tilt, azimuth, and unshaded area. However, LiDAR data is not universally available and, even when available, obtaining and processing this data can be expensive. In contrast, parcel-level data is easy to use and widely available as it is generated by jurisdictions to levy property taxes. Such data universally reports building footprint area, which is highly correlated with roof area suitable (developable) for rooftop solar. Moreover, parcel data identifies building end-use, tenure, and other building characteristics not provided by LiDAR. To explore the feasibility of using parcel data to assess technical potential more broadly, we compare estimates using parcel data in Orlando, Florida (HIFLD 2020) to those generated using LiDAR data (Koebrich et al. 2021). We find that the parcel-based method results in accurate technical potential estimates at a block and city-scale, though only after accounting for shading and other factors that derate developable roof area. The results of this study demonstrate a scalable, low-effort approach to assess rooftop solar technical potential for every city and community in the U.S.

census blocks↗

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Oil Refinery

Efforts to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the U.S. economy are underway. Industrial processes such as crude-oil refining rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels for powering their operations. Refineries use large amounts of energy, primarily derived from fossil sources to separate crude-oil components, break down heavier hydrocarbons into lighter compounds, remove impurities, reform hydrocarbon molecules, and generate steam and electricity for pumps and compressors and other various auxiliary systems. Crude-oil refining operations such as distillation, cracking, desulfurization, reforming, utilities systems and some offsite facilities collectively account for most of the energy consumption. Other operations such as hydrocracking or hydrotreating also require hydrogen for developing hydrogenation reactions which involve substantial heating to keep the reactors at high-temperature and pressure levels. All heat and energy demands are typically provided by natural gas (NG), oil, or other fuels, which makes refinery industry one of the most-difficult sectors to decarbonize. Nuclear power is a viable and energy-dense source of clean electricity, heat, and hydrogen to provide the large, sustainable energy supply that the refining industry demands. The U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE’s) Integrated Energy Systems (IES) program is working to perform research and development, design, economic siting, and risk analysis. This state-of-the-art work will enable the first on-site demonstrations and commercial deployments of advanced small modular nuclear reactors (SMNRs) integrated with industries such as chemical production, refining, iron and steel making, and more. IES seeks to demonstrate the ability of advanced nuclear reactors to meet the heat and power demands of these industries while reducing carbon emissions in a sustainable and cost-competitive way. The primary objective of this research effort is to analyze industrial-scale SMNR integration intended to decarbonize refining facilities. The foreseen outcome is the provision of reliable, cost-competitive, and sustainable clean energy, alongside a reduction of carbon emissions. Specifically, the focus of this work lies on meeting the reference facilities’ heat and electricity demands with nuclear power while also supplying clean hydrogen via integrated high-temperature steam electrolysis (HTSE). This report presents a comprehensive technical and economic assessment of the integration of advanced nuclear reactors into a reference refinery, leveraging financial incentives from the Inflation Reduction Act (IRA). The evaluation aims to explore the potential economic benefits and challenges associated with incorporating advanced nuclear reactors into refinery operations, particularly in terms of energy efficiency, economic implications and environmental impact. By examining both the technical feasibility and economic viability, this analysis seeks to identify existing gaps and propose solutions for successful nuclear integration implementation. The findings are intended to provide valuable insights for stakeholders considering the adoption of advanced nuclear reactors in the refining sector. A refinery reference-plant was developed, using an open-source refinery model, Petroleum Refinery Lifecycle Inventory Model (PRELIM) and expert assessment, as a base case for comparison with various nuclear integration options. The capacity of 100 kbd/day (KBD) of heavy crude-oil feed was selected to represent a general coking-type refinery with deep conversion capabilities (incorporating heavy-oil upgrading with FCC, coking, and associated hydrotreating process units), using a heavy crude-oil feed, which represents about 70% of U.S. refineries configurations. A summary of all cases considered in this study is shown in Table 1.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

A Method for Assessing Effectiveness and Technical Capabilities Required for Integrated Deterrence (NSLP-Final Report-Draft2022)

The United States faces an ever-increasingly multi-polar security environment dominated by great power competition with China and a lingering Russian threat as well as from would-be regional hegemons led by ambitions from Iran and North Korea. Our adversaries are pursuing and expanding the strategic means by-which they have an asymmetric offset (e.g., cyber, space, and other modes below the level of armed conflict). To combat and deter against the widening range of hostile actions, the U.S. must have additional capabilities with-which to deter. All of which drives us towards a more thoughtful integrated approach to deterrence, attempting to best align deterrent tools with the adversary actions in order to maximize the credibility of our deterrent. Such an approach complicates our deterrence strategy and demands a methodology to assess whether the U.S. has the deterrent tools necessary to deter the adversarial actions most costly to the U.S. To address this complexity, we create a framework to comprehensively and systematically assess our deterrent tools as qualitatively measured against the adversarial actions we wish to deter. Deterrence is ultimately an operation in the cognitive domain and at the heart of the framework presented here is the fundamental deterrence calculus which we use as the defining measure of whether a tool will credibly deter a given action. We describe the eight levers of the deterrence calculus and distill these levers to four products that are used to qualitatively assess the overall effectiveness of deterrence tools against adversarial actions. Credibility is determined by two principal variables: the technical credibility of the deterrent tool, and the principle of proportionality. Technical credibility of realized deterrence products is assessed through development of key mission requirements and hardware (e.g., components) that will impose costs, deny benefits, or encourage restraint. The principle of proportionality qualitatively asserts that for a deterrent tool to be cognitively credible, the costs imposed against, or benefits denied by, an action are commensurate to the magnitude of costs received from the adversarial action. By basing this framework on these two fundamentals, it is possible to compare deterrent tools in a systematic approach across the broad spectrum of hostile actions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Multi factor Assessment for Decarbonization via Technically Viable Carbon Storage

Final poster presenting research under EDX4CCS portfolio, Task 21, on multi-factor assessment for technically viable carbon storage. To date, carbon storage viability assessments have focused on the technically recoverable storage resources to estimate the volume of carbon storage in reservoirs targeted for geologic carbon sequestration. The Carbon Storage Technical Viability Approach (CS TVA) was developed to account for all factors determining the viability of carbon storage at a given site, including socioeconomic and environmental aspects in addition to the classic subsurface geologic assessment. Abstract accepted to the American Geophysical Union Fall Meeting 2023.

Mark-Moser, Mackenzie K.↗

Hydrogen Plus Other Alternative Fuels Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM+) Technical Reference Manual (V.6.0)

The HyRAM+ software is an open-source toolkit that provides publicly available models and default input values to enable straightforward and consistent safety assessments for hydrogen and other alternative fuel systems, such as natural gas and propane. The HyRAM+ quantitative risk assessment calculation incorporates annual likelihood of leaks or failures for both compressed gaseous and liquefied flammable fuels, as well as probabilistic models for the effects of heat flux and overpressure. HyRAM

08 HYDROGEN↗

Midwest Industrial Assessment Center (Final Technical Report)

The Midwest IAC’s prime center was at the University of Missouri (MU) and the satellite center was at Wichita State University, Kansas. During the 5-year period we conducted at least 96 energy assessments, with recommended energy cost savings of $10.3 million of which $6.5 million was implemented savings. The implemented energy savings were 0.63 Terra BTU and CO2 emissions reduction was 400,000 tons. Thirty-five students completed requirements for a certificate of completion from DOE. IAC students received training in cybersecurity basics and application to manufacturing, fundamentals of energy efficiency, ISO50001, smart manufacturing.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for the Technical Area 8 to Technical Area 22 Natural Gas Line Replacement Project

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing new construction that crosses through upper Pajarito Canyon and upper Starmer Canyon from Technical Area (TA) 8 to TA-22 at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The project proposes to install a new 12 inch natural gas line to replace the existing 70+ year old natural gas line. Replacement will prevent loss of service to several LANL TAs and Bandelier National Monument. The project activities within the 100- year floodplains include 1) new natural gas line installation to replace and existing aging gas line, 2) relocating a section of fence and 3) three construction equipment and materials storage areas. NNSA has prepared this floodplain assessment in accordance with 10 Code of Federal Regulations (CFR) Part 1022 Compliance with Floodplain and Wetland Environmental Review Requirements (10 CFR Part 1022) (CFR 2003) which was promulgated to implement DOE requirements under Executive Order 11988 Floodplain Management (EO 1977). A floodplain is defined in 10 CFR 1022 as “the lowlands adjoining inland and coastal waters and relatively flat areas and flood prone areas of offshore islands,” and a base floodplain as “the 100-year floodplain, that is, a floodplain with a 1.0 percent chance of flooding in any given year (CFR 2003).” This floodplain assessment evaluates potential impacts to floodplain values and functions from implementation of the proposed action, identifies alternatives to the Proposed Action, and allows for meaningful public comment.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Technical and Economic Assessment of LWR Flexible Operation for Generation and Demand Balancing to Optimize Plant Revenue

With increased penetration of subsidized variable renewable energy (VRE) resources and competition from low natural gas prices, existing light water reactor (LWR) nuclear power plants (NPPs) are struggling to remain economically competitive. This work examines the potential economic competitiveness of various thermal energy storage (TES) technologies when coupled directly or indirectly with a NPP. To highlight their relative economic competitiveness, we contrast several energy storage solutions in stochastic dispatch optimization. We leverage data from recent work analyzing a range of TES technologies with varying capital costs, performance, and technology readiness level (TRL) to establish our case. We explore inserting these technologies into an electricity market with existing nuclear generation and large projected variable renewable energy (VRE) penetration. Although these technologies' projected capital costs may make them unlikely candidates in their current state, this analysis demonstrates a high-fidelity techno-economic analysis of energy storage. Furthermore, as the projected cost of energy storage technologies evolves, this analysis sets a precedent for similar future investigations. One region with projected trends that may be unfavorable for existing nuclear capacity is the New York Independent System Operator (NYISO) market. New York state’s baseload generation has been historically provided by fossil-fired and nuclear assets. However, amid economic pressures from subsidized VREs and low natural gas prices, the state has recently deactivated Indian Point nuclear power plant units 2 and 3. Furthermore, the state plans to meet its zero-emission generation target by 2040 by replacing fossil-fired capacity with significant investments in VRE resources like wind and solar photovoltaic (PV) and battery storage. Increased intermittent resource penetration lowers the baseload power requirement, adding further economic pressure to the state’s three remaining NPPs still in operation. With three NPPs still in operation in New York, this work analyzes potential economic benefits to NPPs on the New York grid when directly or indirectly coupled with various TES technologies. This work requires two modeling steps to analyze the potential economic benefits of various system configurations of the TES directly or indirectly coupled with nuclear. First, this analysis leverages capacity expansion modeling by experts at the Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI). Using their deterministic capacity expansion model, U.S. Regional Economy, Greenhouse Gas, and Energy (US-REGEN), EPRI analysts evaluated the capacity and generation evolution of the New York state energy market under four projection scenarios. These four projection scenarios were developed to represent the potential evolution of the capacity and generation in NYISO from 2015 to 2050 under various economic, technology, and policy constraints. The results from these capacity expansion models are then used as boundary conditions in the second modeling step. The second modeling step uses the Holistic Energy Resource Optimization Network (HERON) for a set of stochastic techno-economic analyses (STEAs) to investigate the potential increase in the economic viability of various configurations of the TES. With no current capacity expansion capabilities, HERON takes the data generated from US-REGEN for 2050 to generate synthetic load, solar, and wind data. Then HERON economically optimizes the capacity and dispatch of the various TES configurations. The potential economic benefit is the differential net present value (NPV) of the TES configurations from the no-TES baseline. As a stochastic techno-economic analysis package, HERON introduces uncertainty into the economic metrics, while US-REGEN trades resolution for reduced computational complexity. Using HERON also allows the modeling of direct thermal coupling, a feature not common in capacity and dispatch models. As expected, with high capital costs, the costs of introducing energy storage for all the technologies considered outweighed the potential economic benefit of this strategy for flexible plant operation. The benefit of this analysis is primarily in demonstrating a workflow that examines innovative solutions to increase NPP revenue via TES coupling. HERON’s stochastic capacity and dispatch optimization process used in this work has proven an effective tool in observing and evaluating the impact of introducing storage technologies in a grid energy system.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for the Technical Area 72 Outdoor Live Fire Range Safety Upgrades Project

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing new construction and upgrade activities in lower Sandia Canyon at Technical Area (TA) 72 at the Outdoor Live Fire Range facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The proposed upgrades are intended to improve range safety to help fulfill the mission requirements of maintaining a trained and qualified armed Protective Force.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for the Technical Area 72 Outdoor Live Fire Range Gate Installation Project

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing new construction in lower Sandia Canyon at Technical Area (TA) 72 at the Outdoor Live Fire Range facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The proposed upgrades are intended to improve range safety.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Los Alamos National Laboratory Floodplain Assessment for the Technical Area 72 Outdoor Live Fire Range Storage Units Installation Project

The National Nuclear Security Administration (NNSA), a semi-autonomous agency within the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), is proposing new construction in lower Sandia Canyon at Technical Area (TA) 72 at the Outdoor Live Fire Range facility at Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL). The proposed project is intended to provide storage for firing range supplies and consumables. The project activities within the 100-year floodplain include installation of at least seven prefabricated metal transportainer type storage units located at one of four locations (Figure 1).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700-1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 HYDROGEN↗

New Mobility Technology Assessment - Benefits, Risks, and Safety

The age of vehicle automation is upon us. The fundamental perception and control technology is maturing as we speak (and write) with robo-taxis proliferating in select US cities. The news cycle is no longer filled with technological skepticism, but rather societal commentary on our collective response and use of the technology. This maturing of the technology is also accompanied by a renaissance in new types of urban movement technology to more effectively link people with goods, services, and employment, particularly in dense development areas where vehicle congestion (even automated vehicles) prevents high quality mobility. The National Renewable Energy Laboratory, through the DOE Clean Energy to Communities (C2C) program has worked with two jurisdictions to assess the benefits, risks, and safety concerns for a new product offering based on suspended cable technology which is fully automated and proposes an aerial network of self-propelled gondolas. The recognized need, independent of the technology, is to fairly assess the benefits of the proposed transportation system, assess its technical maturity, as well as risks and safety concerns. Using this new technology as an example, a technology represented by Swyft Cities, NREL developed a succession of mini-studies that characterized the technical maturity level, assessed the proposed benefits for Greenville, SC, examined the risks involved in moving forward with an emerging mobility technology, and determined the governing safety protocols and standards that are applicable to the space. These mini-case studies, though centered on Swyft Cities aerial automated gondola technology, are highly transferable to any type of new mobility technology and lays out a repeatable process for assessing new technology within an city or community context.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Technical and Economic Assessment and Gap Analysis of Advanced Nuclear Reactor Integration with a Reference Methanol Synthesis Plant

Efforts continue to identify the most-economic methods to decarbonize several sectors of the United States (U.S.) economy. Industrial processes such as synfuel synthesis and high value commodity chemicals rely heavily on energy-dense and easily stored and transported fossil fuels, which power and feed their operations. Steam methane reforming (SMR) is a widely used process for producing methanol. In this process, methane (CH 4 ) from natural gas (NG) reacts with steam (H 2 O) over a catalyst at high temperatures (700°1,000°C) to produce syngas, a mixture of hydrogen (H 2 ) and carbon monoxide (CO). The syngas is then converted into methanol (CH 3 OH) through a second catalytic reaction. This method is known for being an efficient and commonly employed pathway for industrial methanol production. The high-temperature heat needed for SMR, which is currently used in the natural-gas-to-methanol process, cannot be supplied by small modular nuclear reactor (SMNR) direct heating; the temperatures required for the SMR process exceed those of the main steam produced by near-market high-temperature gas reactors (HTGRs). For the conventional methanol process, this leaves possible nuclear-integration opportunities that include: (1) blending nuclear hydrogen into the SMR NG fuel, or (2) assessing alternative synthesis routes leveraging nuclear capabilities and steam electrolysis outputs. In the reference methanol plant, SMR provides the methanol-synthesis reactor with H 2 and co. In Case (2), the state-of-the-art reverse water gas shift (RWGS) pathway achieves the same, sourcing carbon from an industrial CO 2 source.

08 - HYDROGEN↗

Understanding the Uncertainty in the Technical Performance Level Assessment for Wave Energy

In recent years, the design and development of wave energy converters (WECs) has been explored with intense interest, with highly varying design concepts emerging globally across both research enterprises and industry. The design space for WECs is vast - many concepts ranging in functionality, control systems, power development systems, materials, and scale have been ideated and prototyped, but WEC technology has yet to converge. One critical element of the technology trajectory that governs the speed of adoption is the performance of a WEC concept. In analogous but more-established industries (such as aerospace, and environmentally sustainable electronics design), performance assessment is a quantitative method, based on historical data, that is used as an iterative tool to improve the design of these systems early on in the design process. Though more nascent than these approaches, in wave energy R&D, WEC performance has been assessed using the Technology Performance Level (TPL) assessment, which provides designers with a quantitative score, situating a grid-scale WEC concept on a scale from 1-9 (1 being the lowest performance, and 9 being the highest, trending with the oft-used Technology Readiness Level, or TRL). The TPL assessment is designed to be used during design iteration, when a WEC concept is fully ideated, to enable designers to consider potential means of improving the downstream performance of the concept. One concern that may be slowing the adoption of TPL among WEC developers is the inherent uncertainty in the assessment, and how uncertainty in the individual questions asked as part of the assessment may contribute to perceived inaccuracies in the final score. In this work, we explore the uncertainty present in the assessment and quantify this uncertainty using both traditional mathematical operations and a Monte Carlo simulation. Results imply areas of improvement of the TPL assessment, where reducing uncertainty will be most helpful to end users, enabling both TPL practitioners and users to understand with more accuracy those design elements that can be improved to impact device performance most substantively.

techno-economic analysis↗