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DOE OSTI2025

CERF: IM3 Projected Western US Power Plant Locations

Overview The Capacity Expansion Regional Feasibility (CERF) model is an open-source geospatial python package that provides new power plant locations at a 1km resolution. The model ingests U.S. state or regional-scale electricity system capacity expansion plans, such as those produced by the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM-USA), and identifies feasible, site-specific locations for individual new power plants (renewable and non-renewable). CERF combines high-resolution geospatial suitability analyses with an economic algorithm that selects individual plant siting locations based on grid interconnection costs and the locational marginal value of new generation. The model incorporates a wide range of dynamic constraints and opportunities, such as protected lands, population density, existing infrastructure, and water availability. This dataset provides CERF power plant siting results for IM3 Phase 2 simulations across eight different scenarios for the Western US through 2055. The scenarios include combinations of two Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP3 and SSP5) with four high-resolution climate projections specific to the United States (see, https://tgw-data.msdlive.org/). These climate projections include "hotter" and "cooler" variants for two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5). The resulting eight simulations are: rcp45cooler_ssp3 rcp45cooler_ssp5 rcp45hotter_ssp3 rcp45hotter_ssp5 rcp85cooler_ssp3 rcp85cooler_ssp5 rcp85hotter_ssp3 rcp85hotter_ssp5 CERF siting results in this dataset correspond to capacity expansion plans in the GCAM-USA IM3 Phase 2 simulation data and are available for each of the above scenarios. Data Details Temporal Range: 2015-2055 in 5-year timesteps. Note that 2015 is the experiment base year and 2020 and beyond represent model simulation years. Spatial Range: Plant locations are provided for the eleven states in the Western US including Arizona, California, Colorado, Idaho, Montana, New Mexico, Nevada, Oregon, Utah, Washington, and Wyoming. Spatial Resolution: 1 km-squared, provided in x and y coordinates Geospatial Projection: Albers Equal Area Conic (ESRI:102003) File Type: csv The dataset contains subdirectories for each of the eight scenarios described in the overview. Each scenario folder contains two subfolders with the following information: 1. Power Plant Data This directory contains a single .csv file of power plant locations for both pre-existing (non-CERF sited plants in operation in 2015) and new (CERF-sited) power plants across the temporal range along with additional CERF model output parameters for CERF-sited plants. Plant with a siting year earlier than 2020 correspond to facilities that are operational leading into the first timestep CERF simulation. For a more detailed description of CERF model output parameters, see the CERF model documentation. Note that the cerf_plant_id parameter is unique within each scenario file but not across scenario files. Parameter Descriptions scenario - Name of scenario cerf_plant_id - Unique siting identifier cerf_sited - If True, indicates that plant was sited by CERF model. If False, indicates pre-existing facility region_name - Name of region (state) tech_id - Technology ID tech_name - Full generation technology name inclusive of cooling type (if applicable) and additional characteristics tech_simple - Simplified generation technology type unit_size_mw - Power plant unit size (MW) xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) index - Index position in the flattend 2D array buffer_in_km - Exclusion buffer around site (km) sited_year - Year of siting retirement_year - Year of retirement lmp_zone - Locational marginal price (LMP) zone ID locational_marginal_price_usd_per_mwh - Locational marginal price ($/MWh) generation_mwh_per_year - Generation output (MWh/yr) operating_cost_usd_per_year - Cost of plant operations ($/yr) net_operational_value - Net operational value based on LMP and and operating costs ($/yr) interconnection_cost - Cost of interconnection for transmission & gas pipeline (if applicable) net_locational_cost -- Difference of interconnection cost and operating value ($/yr) capacity_factor_fraction - Capacity factor (fraction) carbon_capture_rate_fraction - Carbon capture rate (fraction) fuel_co2_content_tons_per_btu - Fuel CO2 content (tons/Btu) fuel_price_usd_per_mmbtu - Fuel price ($/MMBtu) fuel_price_esc_rate_fraction - Fuel price escalation rate (fraction) heat_rate_btu_per_kWh - Heat rate (Btu/kWh) lifetime_yrs - Technology lifetime for annuity (years) operational_life_yrs - Operational lifetime for retirement (years) variable_om_usd_per_mwh - Variable operation and maintenance costs of yearly capacity use ($/MWh) variable_om_esc_rate_fraction - Variable operation and maintenance costs escalation rate (fraction) carbon_tax_usd_per_ton - Carbon tax ($/ton) carbon_tax_esc_rate_fraction - Carbon tax escalation rate (fraction) 2. Storage Data This directory contains information on new and pre-existing energy storage facilities operational in each timestep along with various storage operational parameters. The 2015 timestep provides pre-existing energy storage data and corresponds with facilities that are operational leading into the first model simulation timestep. Note that coordinates in the storage files correspond to the interconnection point on the grid (substation location), not individual energy storage locations. Energy storage is added in a cumulative process at each given interconnection point. That is, each individual file provides the total operational storage capacity interconnected to the specified substation for the given timestep, inclusive of previously installed storage at that location and new storage installed in that timestep at that location. Parameters scenario - Name of scenario timestep - Simulation timestep name - Unique storage identifier s_typ - Type of energy storage technology (battery or pumped storage hydro) s_node - Node ID of interconnecting substation xcoord - X coordinate in the default CRS (meters) ycoord - Y coordinate in the default CRS (meters) charge_rate - Maximum charge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) discharge_rate - Maximum discharge rate (power capacity) of storage system (MW) duration - Duration of storage system (hours) max_SoC - Allowed maximum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) min_SoC -Allowed minimum state of charge (energy capacity) of storage system (MWh) charge_eff - Efficiency of charge (fraction between 0 and 1) discharge_eff - Efficiency of discharge (fraction between 0 and 1) Acknowledgment IM3 is a multi-institutional effort led by Pacific Northwest National Laboratory and supported by the U.S. Department of Energy's Office of Science as part of research in MultiSector Dynamics, Earth and Environmental Systems Modeling Program.

CERF↗

DOE OSTI2024

Endogenizing Probabilistic Resource Adequacy Risks in Deterministic Capacity Expansion Models

In this work, we demonstrate how power system capacity expansion models can understate the stochastic effects of thermal outages when considering resource availabilities on an hourly expected value basis, yielding system designs with multiple orders of magnitude more shortfall risk than stated adequacy targets. We develop a novel approximation approach to efficiently endogenize awareness of this risk in a deterministic, linear capacity expansion framework. We compare this approach to exogenous tuning of an energy reserve margin, the leading alternative method to compensate for unmodeled probabilistic shortfall risk. Empirical results from a test system show that the new endogenous method cost-effectively meets all regional reliability targets with a single optimization solve, and produces a near-identical system design as the incumbent method without the need for repeated re-optimizations to find an appropriate reserve level. The endogenous method may also use iterative re-optimizations to further improve solution quality, although these incremental benefits were modest in the system studied.

capacity expansion modeling↗

NASA NTRS1979

Redox flow cell energy storage systems

The redox flow cell energy storage system being developed by NASA for use in remote power systems and distributed storage installations for electric utilities is presented. The system under consideration is an electrochemical storage device which utilizes the oxidation and reduction of two fully soluble redox couples (acidified chloride solutions of chromium and iron) as active electrode materials separated by a highly selective ion exchange membrane. The reactants are contained in large storage tanks and pumped through a stack of redox flow cells where the electrochemical reactions take place at porous carbon felt electrodes. Redox equipment has allowed the incorporation of state of charge readout, stack voltage control and system capacity maintenance (rebalance) devices to regulate cells in a stack jointly. A 200 W, 12 V system with a capacity of about 400 Wh has been constructed, and a 2 kW, 10kWh system is planned.

Thaller, L. H.↗

DOE OSTI2018

Energy Resilience Through Grid Modernization and Renewables Integration

The National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) is studying renewable energy system integration and security and resilience planning as part of the U.S. Department of Energy's Grid Modernization Initiative. Some recent work focused on incorporating the Value of Resilience into the decision making process for investing in distributed, behind-the-meter energy systems to meet critical loads during grid outages. Cost / benefit analyses show how accounting for the Value of Resilience as a benefit changes solar PV and battery energy storage system capacities for maximum owner benefit.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2018

Impacts of valuing resilience on cost-optimal PV and storage systems for commercial buildings

Not Available

Laws, Nicholas D.↗

NASA NTRS1996

From Aeronautics to Space: Lessons in Human Automation

Civilian air flight continues on a growth curve, as more and more people utilize air travel to meet business and personal travel needs: This consumer-driven demand has resulted in the adoption of new methods to increase air system capacity and to make the air transportation system increasingly more efficient. As a consequence, civilian aviation, as an industry, has assumed a leading role in the use of automated systems, and, by implication, in the understanding of how human openers interact with these systems. Aeronautical automation systems serve a variety of roles. These include controlling aircraft and aiding, advising and monitoring numerous functions in the aircraft/airspace system. Experiences in the use of human/automation systems gathered from aviation are, in many cases, generalizable to other industries having similar requirements for human and non-human intelligent system interaction. However, the human/automation lessons learned from aviation have special relevance to the space application, where many of the same operational demands prevail. The application of aeronautical lessons of human-automated interaction to spaceflight is the subject of this paper. The discussion will address: the progress that has been made through aeronautically-based research and experience in understanding human/automation interaction, ways that this understanding can be applied to the needs of space, and the limits of our present understanding of human/automations systems. Suggestions will be offered related to human-automation research generally, and to the particular needs of the space endeavor.

Connors, Mary M.↗

NASA NTRS2013

Estimation of Airline Benefits from Avionics Upgrade under Preferential Merge Re-sequence Scheduling

Modernization of the airline fleet avionics is essential to fully enable future technologies and procedures for increasing national airspace system capacity. However in the current national airspace system, system-wide benefits gained by avionics upgrade are not fully directed to aircraft/airlines that upgrade, resulting in slow fleet modernization rate. Preferential merge re-sequence scheduling is a best-equipped-best-served concept designed to incentivize avionics upgrade among airlines by allowing aircraft with new avionics (high-equipped) to be re-sequenced ahead of aircraft without the upgrades (low-equipped) at enroute merge waypoints. The goal of this study is to investigate the potential benefits gained or lost by airlines under a high or low-equipped fleet scenario if preferential merge resequence scheduling is implemented.

air traffic management↗

DOE OSTI2023

High temporal resolution generation expansion planning for the clean energy transition

As power systems integrate increasing quantities of wind, solar and energy storage resources, it is important to revisit power system capacity expansion modeling methods and assumptions that have been utilized in thermal- dominated systems. We conduct a series of case study analyses using a simplified representation of the Electric Reliability Council of Texas (ERCOT) system to demonstrate how least-cost capacity expansion outcomes are impacted by changes in model resolution across two temporal dimensions: 1) the number of considered representative periods, and 2) the system dispatch interval. First, we find that the least-cost generation portfolio can differ significantly for small changes in the number of representative days, but largely converges to the 365-day result once 104 representative days are considered. Furthermore, systems with wind, solar and storage resources were more sensitive to changes in the number of representative days than a thermal-dominated system. Second, we find that considering five-minute dispatch resolution consistently results in least-cost generation portfolios with less solar capacity and more energy storage capacity than corresponding scenarios with hourly dispatch intervals. This suggests that hourly dispatch representation fails to capture the intra-hour volatility of solar generation, and therefore also overlooks opportunities for storage resources to provide system value by balancing this volatility. Collectively these results indicate that capacity expansion modelers should revisit conventional approaches to temporal representation when conducting analyses of deeply decarbonized power systems to ensure that such analyses are robust and actionable. To our knowledge, this is the first study to analyze capacity expansion outcomes with five-minute dispatch resolution in this manner.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

NASA NTRS1989

Balanced-Load Real-Time Multiprocessor System

Modularity and parallelism provide tolerance to faults and high throughput capacity. System, called MAX, is network of interconnected computers. MAX cluster consists of group of modules - each semiautonomous computer. Modules connected to each other and to other clusters by global bus and circuit-switched communication mesh.

Rasmussen, Robert D.↗

NASA NTRS1978

A communications satellite system concept based on the AMPA experiment

This paper describes a system employing sophisticated satellites with steerable high gain, multibeam phased array antennas, which serve small low-cost user terminals. Adaptive techniques are used to form, point, and shape the beams. Pseudonoise signaling achieves user access/distress without requiring dedicated access/emergency channels. The L-band array has 32 elements, 34-dB gain; the user terminal has 15W transmitter, 3-dB gain antenna. The pseudonoise code and message structures are described. Approximately 100 users can be simultaneously acquired with success-probability exceeding 99%; system capacity can be increased by providing additional beams. System implementation is feasible in the Shuttle era.

Durrani, S. H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The effect of model uncertainty on some optimal routing problems

The effect of model uncertainties on optimal routing in a system of parallel queues is examined. The uncertainty arises in modeling the service time distribution for the customers (jobs, packets) to be served. For a Poisson arrival process and Bernoulli routing, the optimal mean system delay generally depends on the variance of this distribution. However, as the input traffic load approaches the system capacity the optimal routing assignment and corresponding mean system delay are shown to converge to a variance-invariant point. The implications of these results are examined in the context of gradient-based routing algorithms. An example of a model-independent algorithm using online gradient estimation is also included.

Mohanty, Bibhu↗

NASA NTRS2010

TPSAS-NF1676L-10776-DND

Airborne self-separation (SSEP) among aircraft is proposed as a means for improving air traffic system capacity and safety in the future National Airspace System and for improving the efficiency of flight for all aircraft performing this function. The concept is examined in the U.S. en route domain, in an environment of mixed conventional and SSEP operations. No airspace is set aside for this purpose and the first aircraft equipped to perform the function can receive its benefits. For aircraft operating in the SSEP mode, the Air Navigation Service Provider (ANSP) turns over control and responsibility for all separation tasks to the pilots of SSEP aircraft. This includes separation from all other aircraft, from severe weather hazards and from Special Use Airspace. Connection to the centralized traffic flow management function is retained throughout the flight, however, and compliance with any Required Time of Arrival assignments is maintained. The SSEP function is accomplished in the aircraft through the use of airborne surveillance, data communications and processing equipment, and procedures defined in a new set of operating rules called "Autonomous Flight Rules" (AFR). The technical enablers are Automatic Dependent Surveillance - Broadcast (ADS-B), Traffic Information Service - Broadcast (TIS-B), and Traffic Alert and Collision Avoidance System (TCAS). This briefing presents an overview of the concept.

Frank Bussink↗

DOE OSTI2014

Distribution and Room Air Mixing Risks to Retrofitted Homes

An energy efficiency upgrade reduces a home’s heating and cooling load. If the load reduction is great enough and the heating, ventilation, and air conditioning system warrants replacement, that system is often upgraded with a more efficient, lower capacity system that meets the load of the upgraded house. For a single-story house with floor supply air diffusers, the ducts often are removed and upgraded. For houses with ducts that are embedded in walls, the cost of demolition precludes the replacement of ducts. The challenge with the use of existing ducts is that the reduced airflow creates a decreased throw at the supply registers, and the supply air and room air do not mix well, leading to potential thermal comfort complaints. This project investigates this retrofit scenario. The issues and solutions discussed here are relevant to all climate zones, with emphasis on climates that require cooling. In this project, IBACOS performed load calculations for a two-story 1960s house and characterized duct sizes and layouts based on industry “rules of thumb” (Herk et al. 2014). The team performed duct-sizing calculations for unaltered ducts and post-retrofit airflows and examined airflow velocities and pressure changes with respect to various factors. The team then used a mocked-up duct and register setup to measure the characteristics of isothermal air—to reduce the effects of buoyancy from the observations—passing through the duct and leaving the register.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2014

Distribution and Room Air Mixing Risks to Retrofitted Homes

Energy efficiency upgrades reduce heating and cooling loads on a house. With enough load reduction and if the HVAC system warrants replacement, the HVAC system is often upgraded with a more efficient, lower capacity system that meets the loads of the upgraded house. For a single-story house with ceiling supply air diffusers, ducts are often removed and upgraded. For houses with ducts that are embedded in walls, the cost of demolition precludes the replacement of ducts. The challenge with the use of existing ducts is that the reduced airflow creates a decreased throw at the supply registers, and the supply air and room air do not mix well, leading to potential thermal comfort complaints. This project investigates this retrofit scenario. The issues and solutions discussed here are relevant to all climate zones, with emphasis on climates that require cooling.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2015

Technology Solutions Case Study: Overcoming Comfort Issues Due to Reduced Flow Room Air Mixing

AIR DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2027

From zonal to nodal capacity expansion planning: Spatial aggregation impacts on a realistic test-case

Solving power system capacity expansion planning (CEP) problems at realistic spatial resolutions is computationally challenging. Thus, a common practice is to solve CEP over zonal models with low spatial resolution rather than over full-scale nodal power networks. Due to improvements in solving large-scale stochastic mixed integer programs, these computational limitations are becoming less relevant, and the assumption that zonal models are realistic and useful approximations of nodal CEP is worth revisiting. Here, this work is the first to conduct a systematic computational study on the assumption that spatial aggregation can reasonably be used for ISO-scale CEP. By considering a realistic, large-scale test network based on the state of California with over 8000 buses, we find that well-designed small spatial aggregations can yield good approximations but that coarser zonal models may result in large distortions of investment decisions, e.g., capacity under-investment of up to 41% for the lowest resolution model considered.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Offshore wind and wave energy can reduce total installed capacity required in zero-emissions grids

Abstract As the world races to decarbonize power systems to mitigate climate change, the body of research analyzing paths to zero emissions electricity grids has substantially grown. Although studies typically include commercially available technologies, few of them consider offshore wind and wave energy as contenders in future zero-emissions grids. Here, we model with high geographic resolution both offshore wind and wave energy as independent technologies with the possibility of collocation in a power system capacity expansion model of the Western Interconnection with zero emissions by 2050. In this work, we identify cost targets for offshore wind and wave energy to become cost effective, calculate a 17% reduction in total installed capacity by 2050 when offshore wind and wave energy are fully deployed, and show how curtailment, generation, and transmission change as offshore wind and wave energy deployment increase.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗