Engineering Papers⌕ Search

SEARCH · Engineering Papers

Results for “surface meteorology systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

NWB Sensors Infrared Cloud Imager Data Products from SGP

NWB Sensors is a company which has developed a commercially available Infrared Cloud Imager (ICI). For more information, consult the company's webpage, https://www.nwbsensors.com/infrared-cloud-imager. To validate the radiometric accuracy of the ICI, NWB Sensors deployed it to the ARM SGP User Facility in 2023. The primary motivation of this deployment was to perform an intercomparison between the ICI and the Atmospheric Emitted Radiance Interferometer (AERI). The AERI spectral radiance data product can be integrated across the response function of the ICI and directly compared to the zenith radiance observed by the ICI. In addition, the ICI uses proprietary models of the downwelling clear-sky radiance in its cloud processing algorithms. They are based on surface meteorology and precipitable water vapor (PWV). These models were validated by comparing their predicted radiances to those derived from radiative transfer models of the ARM radiosondes. Finally, PWV observations derived from the ICI's onboard GNSS-based PWV retrieval system were compared against those from the microwave radiometer. This dataset contains the ICI radiance and cloud data products.

Atmosphere↗
DOE OSTI2021

Gridded daily weather data for North America with comprehensive uncertainty quantification

Abstract Access to daily high-resolution gridded surface weather data based on direct observations and over long time periods is essential for many studies and applications including vegetation, wildlife, soil health, hydrological modelling, and as driver data in Earth system models. We present Daymet V4, a 40-year daily meteorological dataset on a 1 km grid for North America, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico, providing temperature, precipitation, shortwave radiation, vapor pressure, snow water equivalent, and day length. The dataset includes an objective quantification of uncertainty based on strict cross-validation analysis for temperature and precipitation results. The dataset represents several improvements from a previous version, and this data descriptor provides complete documentation for updated methods. Improvements include: reductions in the timing bias of input reporting weather station measurements; improvement to the three-dimensional regression model techniques in the core algorithm; and a novel approach to handling high elevation temperature measurement biases. We show cross-validation analyses with the underlying weather station data to demonstrate the technical validity of new dataset generation methods, and to quantify improved accuracy.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CHELAX-BNF: Fast Response Temperature by airborne measurements

The original data were collected on board the ARM Aerial Facility ArcticShark uncrewed aerial system (UAS; https://www.arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/aaf/uas ) during the “Characterizing HEterogeneous Land-Atmosphere eXchanges at BNF” field campaign (CHEAX-BNF; https://arm.gov/research/campaigns/aaf2025CHELAX-BNF ). The ARM Aerial Facility ArcticShark UAS was based at the public-use airport of Posey Field, AL (FAA LID: 1M4, 34.28027778° N, 87.60055556° W, 283m MSL) from May 28 to June 23, 2025. The ArcticShark UAS performed 5 flights, including 4 research flights over the BNF Main Site (ARM Mobile Facility 3, https://arm.gov/capabilities/observatories/amf ) and Supplemental Facilities to measure atmospheric state, turbulence, surface IR temperature and imagery, aerosol number concentration, and aerosol size distribution. The current data set presents fast response temperature in the atmospheric boundary layer and lower free troposphere measured on the airborne platform throughout the field campaign. The primary instruments used to create the current data set were the fine wire thermocouple probe, the Aircraft Integrated Meteorological Measurement System (AIMMS-30), the Pitot-static system (part of UAS flight control), and the infrared gas analyzer sensor for H2O and CO2 (LI-840). All parameters used in temperature calculations (static pressure, True Air Speed, and absolute humidity in the form of dew point temperature) were included in the data set. For user convenience, one additional parameter was also included: the type of flight flag (level, up, down, turn, and combination of thereof).

Air temperature, fast response↗
DOE OSTI2026

Model Data Archive Associated with Manuscript "Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon"

This data package supports the publication “Fire-altered Carbon Pools Create Disturbance Memory in Stream Dissolved Organic Carbon” by Li et al. (2026). The package contains processed model inputs, configuration files, restart files, simulation outputs, scripts, and visualization products used to evaluate post-fire dissolved organic carbon (DOC) dynamics in the Naches River Watershed, Washington, USA, following the 2021 Schneider Springs Fire. The modeling workflow couples ELM-BGC, the biogeochemistry-enabled Energy Exascale Earth System Model Land Model; ATS, the Advanced Terrestrial Simulator for integrated surface-subsurface hydrology; and PFLOTRAN, a reactive transport model for multicomponent aqueous geochemistry. Together, these models simulate how wildfire-induced changes in vegetation, litter, coarse woody debris, and soil organic matter influence DOC production, transport, and reaction from burned hillslopes to stream networks. The archive includes preprocessed meteorological, geospatial, hydrologic, and biogeochemical forcing data; ELM-BGC-derived DOC source terms; ATS mesh files; PFLOTRAN reactive-transport inputs; model configuration files; spin-up and transient restart files; watershed-scale diagnostic outputs; stream concentration time series; and figures or visualization files used to inspect and reproduce key results. File types include Hierarchical Data Format 5 (HDF5) files for gridded forcing and model-coupling data, model input and configuration files for ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN, restart and simulation-output files generated by the modeling workflow, tabular or time-series diagnostic outputs, scripts for post-processing and figure generation, and image or visualization products associated with the manuscript. Use of the package depends on the intended task. Re-running the simulations requires the relevant modeling software, including ELM-BGC, ATS, and PFLOTRAN as ATS's geochemical engine. Inspecting outputs and reproducing figures requires Python with scientific plotting libraries such as Matplotlib, and three-dimensional model outputs may be viewed with ParaView. Geographic information system files or maps may be inspected with ArcGIS Pro or comparable GIS software. The data package is intended to enable traceability, reuse, and partial reproduction of the coupled land-to-watershed hydro-biogeochemical modeling workflow used to test how wildfire disturbance affects terrestrial carbon pools and downstream DOC dynamics.

ATS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Vegetation Assimilation on Flash Drought Characteristics across the Continental United States

Predicting and managing the impacts of flash droughts is difficult owing to their rapid onset and intensification. Flash drought monitoring often relies on assessing changes in root-zone soil moisture. However, the lack of widespread soil moisture measurements means that flash drought assessments often use process-based model data like that from the North American Land Data Assimilation System (NLDAS). Such reliance opens flash drought assessment to model biases, particularly from vegetation processes. Here, we examine the influence of vegetation on NLDAS-simulated flash drought characteristics by comparing two experiments covering 1981–2017: open loop (OL), which uses NLDAS surface meteorological forcing to drive a land surface model using prognostic vegetation, and data assimilation (DA), which instead assimilates near-real-time satellite-derived leaf area index (LAI) into the land surface model. The OL simulation consistently underestimates LAI across the United States, causing relatively high soil moisture values. Both experiments produce similar geographic patterns of flash droughts, but OL produces shorter duration events and regional trends in flash drought occurrence that are sometimes opposite to those in DA. Across the Midwest and Southern United States, flash droughts are 4 weeks (about 70%) longer on average in DA than OL. Moreover, across much of the Great Plains, flash drought occurrence has trended upward according to the DA experiment, opposite to the trend in OL. This sensitivity of flash drought to the representation of vegetation suggests that representing plants with greater fidelity could aid in monitoring flash droughts and improve the prediction of flash drought transitions to more persistent and damaging long-term droughts.

Drought↗
DOE OSTI2023

Integrating LEO and GEO Observations: Toward Optimal Summertime Satellite Precipitation Retrieval

Abstract Reliable quantitative precipitation estimation with a rich spatiotemporal resolution is vital for understanding the Earth’s hydrological cycle. Precipitation estimation over land and coastal regions is necessary for addressing the high degree of spatial heterogeneity of water availability and demand, and for resolving the extremes that modulate and amplify hazards such as flooding and landslides. Advancements in computation power along with unique high spatiotemporal and spectral resolution data streams from passive meteorological sensors aboard geosynchronous Earth-orbiting (GEO) and low Earth-orbiting (LEO) satellites offer exciting opportunities to retrieve information about surface precipitation phenomena using data-driven machine learning techniques. In this study, the capabilities of U-Net–like architecture are investigated to map instantaneous, summertime surface precipitation intensity at the spatial resolution of 2 km. The calibrated brightness temperature products from the Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Microwave Imager (GMI) radiometer are combined with multispectral images (visible, near-infrared, and infrared bands) from the Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI) aboard the GOES-R satellites as main inputs to the U-Net–like precipitation algorithm. Total precipitable water and 2-m temperature from the Global Forecast System (GFS) model are also used as auxiliary inputs to the model. The results show that the U-Net–like algorithm can capture fine-scale patterns and intensity of surface precipitation at high spatial resolution over stratiform and convective precipitation regimes. The evaluations reveal the potential of extracting relevant, high spatial features over complex surface types such as mountainous regions and coastlines. The algorithm allows users to interpret the inputs’ importance and can serve as a starting point for further exploration of precipitation systems within the field of hydrometeorology.

Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences↗
DOE OSTI2026

Improving High Resolution Offshore Wind Resource Assessments and Forecasts using Observations in the MA/RI Lease Areas

The third Wind Forecast Improvement Project (WFIP3) sought to improve understanding of the physical phenomena in the atmosphere and ocean that dictate the structure and variability of wind and thermodynamic fields within the Marine Atmospheric Boundary Layer (MABL). WFIP3 conducted a comprehensive 18-month observational study over the Northeast U.S. outer continental shelf, a high use coastal zone, using a 3-D multiscale sensor array to highly resolve the temporal, vertical, and horizontal structure of the coupled atmospheric and oceanic boundary layers. Multiple land-based study sites adjacent to the coastal ocean observed surface meteorology and vertical profiles of atmospheric properties via passive infrared and microwave radiometers, active lidars and radars, and radiosondes. At sea, an array of surface flux buoys and two vertical profiling lidar buoys observed both atmospheric and oceanic properties, augmented by land-based oceanographic radar systems and routine ship-based surveys. Intensive observations of the MABL over the ocean was done from an air-sea interaction flux tower and extended deployments of a large barge platform. WFIP3 focused on mesoscale and sub-mesoscale flows -- including sea breezes, low-level jets, low-level clouds, and coastal storms -- and the ability of advanced numerical model parameterizations to represent them within fully coupled oceanic and atmospheric modeling systems and foundational weather forecast models. Numerous critical forecasting phenomena were observed, however the project was terminated prior to the completion of the field observational period and the analysis period.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

CoURAGE KAZR b1 Processing: Corrections, Calibrations, and Processing Report

The U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) User Facility supports atmospheric and earth system research through a comprehensive network of fixed and mobile observatories. These facilities provide long-term and intensive campaign-based observations of clouds, aerosols, precipitation, radiation, and meteorological state variables. ARM observations are designed to improve the physical understanding and numerical representation of atmospheric processes in earth system models, with particular emphasis on cloud-radiation interactions and precipitation processes. The Coast-Urban-Rural Atmospheric Gradient Experiment (CoURAGE) deploys one of the ARM Mobile Facilities (AMF) to the Mid-Atlantic region surrounding Baltimore, Maryland, for the period 1 December 2024 through 30 November 2025. This deployment focuses on characterizing atmospheric structure, cloud properties, and precipitation processes across strong land-use and surface heterogeneity gradients associated with urban, rural, and coastal (Chesapeake Bay) environments. The CoURAGE deployment complements the Baltimore Social-Environmental Collaborative (BSEC), a DOE Urban Integrated Field Laboratory (UIFL), by providing high-quality atmospheric observations needed to connect urban surface processes, emissions, and meteorology to cloud and precipitation responses. In addition to the central urban site, ancillary observing sites were deployed to rural Maryland northwest of Baltimore and to an island site in Chesapeake Bay. These measurements further complement a long-term atmospheric observatory operated in Beltsville, Maryland, by Howard University in collaboration with the Maryland Department of the Environment. Together, these assets form a four-node regional atmospheric observatory network representing Baltimore and its three primary surrounding environments—urban, rural, and coastal/bay. This coordinated observational strategy enables investigation of spatial gradients in boundary-layer structure, cloud occurrence, precipitation evolution, and aerosol-cloud interactions across complex surface regimes. Within this network, vertically pointing cloud radars play a critical role by providing continuous, high-resolution measurements of cloud and precipitation vertical structure.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Hydrodynamic Modeling of Stratification and Mixing in a Shallow, Tropical Floodplain Lake

Abstract Floodplain lakes are widespread and ecologically important throughout tropical river systems, however data are rare that describe how temporal variations in hydrological, meteorological and optical conditions moderate stratification and mixing in these shallow lakes. Using time series measurements of meteorology and water‐column temperatures from 17 several day campaigns spanning two hydrological years in a representative Amazon floodplain lake, we calculated surface energy fluxes and thermal stratification, and applied and evaluated a 3‐dimensional hydrodynamic model. The model successfully simulated diel cycles in thermal structure characterized by buoyancy frequency, depth of the actively mixing layer, and other terms associated with the surface energy budget. Diurnal heating with strong stratification and nocturnal mixing were common; despite considerable heat loss at night, the strong stratification during the day meant that mixing only infrequently extended to the bottom at night. Simulations indicated that the diurnal thermocline up and downwelled creating lake‐wide differences in near‐surface temperatures and mixing depths. Infrequent full mixing creates conditions conducive to anoxia in these shallow lakes given their warm temperatures.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2023

SAIL Aerosol Vertical Profiles (SAIL-AVP) Field Campaign Report

Aerosols are central to understanding the water cycle within mountainous regions, but a complete understanding of this role cannot be provided without vertically resolved observations, particularly for aerosol-cloud interactions, since we simultaneously need to know aerosol information and meteorology near cloud bases. The goal of SAIL Aerosol Vertical Profiles (SAIL-AVP) was to perform tethered balloon system (TBS) measurements during different seasons to elucidate process-level understanding of the aerosols and associated meteorological conditions within complex mountainous terrain. Measurements were conducted during the deployment of the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s second Mobile Facility (AMF2) as part of the Surface Atmosphere Integrated Field Laboratory (SAIL) campaign in the East River Watershed of the Upper Colorado River Basin (UCRB) in southwestern Colorado. In mid-latitude continental interior mountain ranges, and especially at SAIL, aerosol vertical profiles and their relationships with meteorology are, almost without exception, inferred from a combination of ground-based and remote-sensing data. These flights provided many more dimensions to aerosol-cloud interactions that are unavailable to those inferential approaches: the TBS collected in situ information in the vertical, optical, chemical, and biological dimensions for aerosol-cloud interactions. Furthermore, the collocation of these flights with longstanding collaborative resources in the region, including the ongoing surface and subsurface hydrologic observations from the DOE’s Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), produced a unique set of atmospheric observations that are complemented by existing land-surface and subsurface (e.g., groundwater) observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

A machine learning pipeline for identifying infiltration managed aquifer recharge locations from satellite imagery in the San Joaquin Valley, California

This study focuses on an agricultural region in California’s Central Valley, USA, where Managed Aquifer Recharge (MAR) is widely implemented to mitigate groundwater depletion under increasing water demand and climate variability. A deep learning and machine learning framework was developed to identify infiltration-MAR locations using satellite imagery and environmental data. The framework integrates surface water detection from Sentinel-2 imagery, geospatial delineation of water bodies, spatiotemporal tracking of water body dynamics, and supervised classification using meteorological, environmental, and topographic variables. The framework was applied to a 2379 km² study area southwest of Fresno, where 765 water bodies were detected, including 139 identified MAR sites based on publicly available datasets and expert knowledge. The classification model achieved an accuracy of 0.94 and an F1 score of 0.85. Feature importance analysis indicates that cropland, normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and evaporation are among the most influential predictors for infiltration-MAR. Notably, the framework suggests that engineered water management in infiltration-MAR systems can disrupt or even reverse the expected positive correlation between surface water extent and precipitation. These findings provide physically interpretable insights into the characteristics of existing infiltration-MAR facilities and demonstrate the potential of the proposed framework as a reproducible, interpretable, and potentially transferable tool for data-driven infiltration-MAR identification and inventory development under growing climatic and hydrological uncertainty.

Classification↗
DOE OSTI2023

Observations of Offshore Internal Boundary Layers

The growth of the marine internal boundary layer (MIBL, height h i ) with the shore-normal distance x, is a topic of continuing interest because of its applications in coastal dispersion, offshore wind farm siting, coastal air-sea fluxes and in evaporative ducting. Available data on MIBL are only scarce, given its difficult to measure the variability of coastal winds. During Coupled Air-Sea Processes and Electromagnetic Research (CASPER) campaigns an array of instrumentation was deployed to measure offshore spatial variability and its effect on electromagnetic wave propagation. Meteorological sensors (flux towers and remote sensing) were deployed along the coast of Point Mugu, California, on a research vessel and FLoating Instrument Platform (FLIP) provided surface layer and boundary layer observations. In this article, measurements from multiple remote sensing instruments, such as synchronized triple Doppler lidars, small boat operations with tethered lifting system, and radiosondes provide a holistic view of the MIBL growth and its spatial variability from the coast. A convective and stable MIBL observed during two intensive operating period days showed distinct growth characteristics off the coast of Point-Mugu. During stable stratified atmospheric conditions, an MIBL was observed at least up to 47 km from the coast. The growth of the MIBL within the nearshore adjustment zone was influenced by surrounding atmospheric, oceanographic, and topographic conditions. A new parameterization scheme is developed based on advection-diffusion balance equations accounting for upstream turbulence and compared with h i observations from Doppler lidar and profiles from small boat. An evaluation of existing IBL theories was also conducted.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Impact of Floating PV (FPV) System on Water Evaporation: Case Study of an Open Loop Reservoir in North Carolina

Fresh water scarcity is becoming one of the important concerns worldwide. This situation of water scarcity is further exacerbated by the increase in water evaporation due to climate change. This manuscript will address this concern by considering the impact of floating photovoltaics (FPVs) systems on water evaporation. The installation of PV modules on the water bodies can help reduce the water evaporation rate from reservoirs by reducing the evaporating area of the water surface. This work evaluates the effect of FPV on water evaporation rates in the TuckerTown reservoir located in North Carolina state of United States. Meteorological data, such as mean temperature and dew-point, are used to calculate the rate of the water evaporation by Linacre method. The simulation results for the TuckerTown case study showed that the aggregated avoided evaporated volume for one year is 9 million gallons.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A seamless approach for evaluating climate models across spatial scales

In regions of the world where topography varies significantly with distance, most global climate models (GCMs) have spatial resolutions that are too coarse to accurately simulate key meteorological variables that are influenced by topography, such as clouds, precipitation, and surface temperatures. One approach to tackle this challenge is to run climate models of sufficiently high resolution in those topographically complex regions such as the North American Regionally Refined Model (NARRM) subset of the Department of Energy’s (DOE) Energy Exascale Earth System Model version 2 (E3SM v2). Although high-resolution simulations are expected to provide unprecedented details of atmospheric processes, running models at such high resolutions remains computationally expensive compared to lower-resolution models such as the E3SM Low Resolution (LR). Moreover, because regionally refined and high-resolution GCMs are relatively new, there are a limited number of observational datasets and frameworks available for evaluating climate models with regionally varying spatial resolutions. As such, we developed a new framework to quantify the added value of high spatial resolution in simulating precipitation over the contiguous United States (CONUS). To determine its viability, we applied the framework to two model simulations and an observational dataset. We first remapped all the data into Hierarchical Equal-Area Iso-Latitude Pixelization (HEALPix) pixels. HEALPix offers several mathematical properties that enable seamless evaluation of climate models across different spatial resolutions including its equal-area and partitioning properties. The remapped HEALPix-based data are used to show how the spatial variability of both observed and simulated precipitation changes with resolution increases. This study provides valuable insights into the requirements for achieving accurate simulations of precipitation patterns over the CONUS. It highlights the importance of allocating sufficient computational resources to run climate models at higher temporal and spatial resolutions to capture spatial patterns effectively. Furthermore, the study demonstrates the effectiveness of the HEALPix framework in evaluating precipitation simulations across different spatial resolutions. This framework offers a viable approach for comparing observed and simulated data when dealing with datasets of varying spatial resolutions. By employing this framework, researchers can extend its usage to other climate variables, datasets, and disciplines that require comparing datasets with different spatial resolutions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Mapping Glacier Basal Sliding Applying Machine Learning

During the RESOLVE project (“High-resolution imaging in subsurface geophysics: development of a multi-instrument platform for interdisciplinary research”), continuous surface displacement and seismic array observations were obtained on Glacier d’Argentière in the French Alps for 35 days in May 2018. The data set is used to perform a detailed study of targeted processes within the highly dynamic cryospheric environment. In particular, the physical processes controlling glacial basal motion are poorly understood and remain challenging to observe directly. Especially in the Alpine region for temperate based glaciers where the ice rapidly responds to changing climatic conditions and thus, processes are strongly intermittent in time and heterogeneous in space. Spatially dense seismic and Global Positioning System (GPS) measurements are analyzed applying machine learning to gain insight into the processes controlling glacial motions of Glacier d’Argentière. Using multiple bandpass-filtered copies of the continuous seismic waveforms, we compute energy-based features, develop a matched field beamforming catalog and include meteorological observations. Features describing the data are analyzed with a gradient boosting decision tree model to directly estimate the GPS displacements from the seismic noise. We posit that features of the seismic noise provide direct access to the dominant parameters that drive displacement on the highly variable and unsteady surface of the glacier. The machine learning model infers daily fluctuations and longer term trends. The results show on-ice displacement rates are strongly modulated by activity at the base of the glacier. The techniques presented provide a new approach to study glacial basal sliding and discover its full complexity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Grid Spacing Sensitivities of Simulated Mid-Latitude and Tropical Mesoscale Convective Systems in the Convective Gray Zone

The main objective of this study is to observationally constrain processes in tropical and midlatitude mesoscale convective systems (MCSs), and to use these constraints for model evaluation. To accomplish this, we leverage MCS observations collected at the U.S. DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) Southern Great Plains (SGP) site in Oklahoma and ARM's mobile GoAmazon2014/15 site in Manaus, Brazil (MAO). We simulate 13 and 11 of these observed MCSs at the SGP and MAO site, respectively, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model at 12-, 4-, 2-, and 1-km horizontal grid spacing. Observations from radiosondes, surface meteorology, and radar wind profilers are used to characterize MCS properties, such as MCS timing and location, cold pools, and convective drafts, and evaluate these simulations. SGP cases are found in better agreement with observations than MAO cases, and when simulated at 2 km, outperform simulations at 1 km regarding the timing of MCS overpass and the accuracy of surface variable trends. MAO simulations suggest a consistent improvement in model accuracy with increasing model resolution in depicting the downdraft structure, the timing of MCSs, and the surface variables changes, except for the latter two metrics at 2 km. Deficiencies are still evident at km-scales, suggesting the need for higher resolution to simulate tropical MCSs. Overall, location-dependent improvements in MCS representation are obtained with the increasing model resolution, prompting the evaluation of sub-km scale simulations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Evidential Deep Learning: Enhancing Predictive Uncertainty Estimation for Earth System Science Applications

Abstract Robust quantification of predictive uncertainty is a critical addition needed for machine learning applied to weather and climate problems to improve the understanding of what is driving prediction sensitivity. Ensembles of machine learning models provide predictive uncertainty estimates in a conceptually simple way but require multiple models for training and prediction, increasing computational cost and latency. Parametric deep learning can estimate uncertainty with one model by predicting the parameters of a probability distribution but does not account for epistemic uncertainty. Evidential deep learning, a technique that extends parametric deep learning to higher-order distributions, can account for both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties with one model. This study compares the uncertainty derived from evidential neural networks to that obtained from ensembles. Through applications of the classification of winter precipitation type and regression of surface-layer fluxes, we show evidential deep learning models attaining predictive accuracy rivaling standard methods while robustly quantifying both sources of uncertainty. We evaluate the uncertainty in terms of how well the predictions are calibrated and how well the uncertainty correlates with prediction error. Analyses of uncertainty in the context of the inputs reveal sensitivities to underlying meteorological processes, facilitating interpretation of the models. The conceptual simplicity, interpretability, and computational efficiency of evidential neural networks make them highly extensible, offering a promising approach for reliable and practical uncertainty quantification in Earth system science modeling. To encourage broader adoption of evidential deep learning, we have developed a new Python package, Machine Integration and Learning for Earth Systems (MILES) group Generalized Uncertainty for Earth System Science (GUESS) (MILES-GUESS) ( https://github.com/ai2es/miles-guess ), that enables users to train and evaluate both evidential and ensemble deep learning. Significance Statement This study demonstrates a new technique, evidential deep learning, for robust and computationally efficient uncertainty quantification in modeling the Earth system. The method integrates probabilistic principles into deep neural networks, enabling the estimation of both aleatoric uncertainty from noisy data and epistemic uncertainty from model limitations using a single model. Our analyses reveal how decomposing these uncertainties provides valuable insights into reliability, accuracy, and model shortcomings. We show that the approach can rival standard methods in classification and regression tasks within atmospheric science while offering practical advantages such as computational efficiency. With further advances, evidential networks have the potential to enhance risk assessment and decision-making across meteorology by improving uncertainty quantification, a longstanding challenge. This work establishes a strong foundation and motivation for the broader adoption of evidential learning, where properly quantifying uncertainties is critical yet lacking.

Schreck, John S.↗
DOE OSTI2023

Relationships among diurnal variations of polar night cloud, precipitation, surface temperatures, and the fair-weather return current of the global electric circuit (GEC)

Over the past five years (June 2017-current), the vertical electric field (E z ) as well as numerous cloud, precipitation and radiation properties have been monitored at the Department of Energy-Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (DOE ARM) North Slope of Alaska (NSA) field site. Comparisons between the composite diurnal averaged fair-weather E z , and composite ceilometer derived cloud base height during the polar night, reveal a significant correlation between the parameters (r = 0.62), supporting previous studies that there is high correlation between local electric field and cloud properties. With the use of extensive instrumentation at the site, such as the Micro Pulse Lidar (MPL), Ka-band Zenith Radar (KAZR), ceilometer, SKYRAD, Precipitation Imaging Package (PIP), among others, this study provides a more comprehensive examination of the diurnal cycle of cloud and precipitation properties along with the localized fair-weather return current of the larger Global Electric Circuit (GEC) system. Comparisons between the composite diurnal averaged fair-weather E z , and cloud thickness, maximum column backscatter, and precipitation particle counts all show similar diurnal variability during the polar night, indicating that during the largest magnitude fair weather E z time periods, clouds bases tend to be higher, clouds are thicker, have a larger column backscatter, and display more precipitating particles. Furthermore, a slight diurnal variability in the polar night surface temperature was found to be highly correlated (r = 0.87) to the longwave downwelling irradiance measured by SKYRAD, indicating that the variations in the physical properties of local clouds could modulate the diurnal polar night surface temperature variability on the order of 0.5 °C/day. In conclusion, these findings emphasize the importance and global nature of the GEC system, with the global aggregate of thunderstorms and electrified clouds potentially influencing polar night cloud properties as well as diurnal wintertime polar surface temperature variation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗