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At least 73 records · Page 4

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

Climate change is intensifying the hydrologic cycle, leading to more frequent and severe rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding in urban areas. In the mid-Atlantic US cities, aging and under-designed stormwater infrastructure is increasingly strained by these events, resulting in recurring damage to property and disruptions to transportation networks. In this study, we combine community engagement with hydrologic modeling to develop and evaluate potential urban flood adaptation strategies. Over a three-year period, local technical experts and community representatives met regularly to discuss flooding concerns, identify priorities, and co-develop adaptation strategies. These discussions informed the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed, the focus location of this study. The flooding model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data, local expert knowledge, and community insights. We simulate stakeholder-prioritized adaptations, such as green and gray infrastructure strategies. Model results demonstrate that enhanced infrastructure maintenance is the most effective adaptation for reducing flood depths, but has varied effects across the watershed, and can increase flooding in some locations. Spatially concentrated greening provides limited benefit to the watershed as a whole, but moderate benefit in community priority areas. Together, these adaptations have the potential to reduce flood depths by as much as 58% in some locations, greatly reducing property damage and mobility impacts, primary concerns of stakeholders. Future work will implement robust optimization tools to search for adaptations which meet stakeholder objectives and perform highly under varied future climate conditions. This work contributes to the expanding literature on collaborative modeling and demonstrates that community-engaged approaches can enhance model credibility and generate more actionable insights for communities seeking to strengthen climate resilience.

Baltimore MD↗

Community-Informed Urban Flood Modeling for Impact Mitigation

The intensification of the hydrologic cycle due to climate change poses a threat to aging and under-designed water infrastructure systems which cannot adequately manage intense storm events. Developing a comprehensive plan for managing rain-driven flooding events is challenging due to uncertainties in the magnitude and frequency of future storm events and conflicting stakeholder objectives. In the City of Baltimore, Maryland, stormwater infrastructure is struggling to keep up with rainfall-driven (pluvial) flooding events, which regularly damage housing and disrupt transportation for residents. In this study, a hybrid of community engagement, numerical modeling, and artificial intelligence techniques are employed to explore prospective urban flooding adaptations. Community engagement drives the development of an urban flooding model (EPA Storm Water Management Model) for the Baltimore Harbor watershed. The model integrates complex surface and subsurface stormwater infrastructure data from the City, high-resolution spatial data, insights from local public works experts, and the lived experiences of City residents. This co-developed model simulates adaptations of interest to stakeholders in the city, including green and grey infrastructure and operational management strategies. Stormwater management scenarios focused on inlet cleaning and spatially concentrated green infrastructure are found to be the most effective in reducing flood depths in community priority locations. Together, these adaptations can reduce the duration of intersection inundation by more than twenty minutes, allowing for quicker emergency response and restoration of typical transportation systems. Future work will combine this community engaged flooding model with the Deep Uncertainties Pathways framework to explore tradeoffs between adaptations and develop dynamic adaptations which align with community objectives, enhance climate resilience in Baltimore, and can be adjusted in response to changing future conditions.

Ava, Spangler [Pennsylvania State University]↗

A study of mesoscale surface heat and moisture budgets and their relationship to airmass cumulus clouds observed in LANDSAT imagery

The author has identified the following significant results. The three budget analyses show a weak correspondence between LANDSAT cloud patterns and elements of the energy and moisture budgets. It was found that a little more energy is contributed by the ground to heat the air in cloudy areas. Improvements are warranted in the budget models and data coverage necessary to describe the environment. These models can serve as a basis for more complex models of surface air heat and moisture exchanges which would utilize readily available meteorological data on a mesoscale.

Merritt, E. S.↗

Electro-optical terrain reflectance modeling - A perspective

Electro-optical terrain reflectance modeling is one of the components required in the overall capability to simulate remote sensing measurement systems as an aid to the sensor or information processing designer. Given that sensor fields-of-view may vary from a few centimeters to several meters and that measurement devices may be placed at varying heights above the terrain surface, modeling of complex combinations of terrain classes or media with respect to both vertical and horizontal scales may be required. This paper addresses the issue of combining modeling approaches for different classes of materials in the optical regime and recommends a more formal approach to the radiative characterization of media properties as well as the calculation of the bidirectional reflectance distribution functions.

Smith, J. A.↗

Coupled land surface/hydrologic/atmospheric models

The topics covered include the following: prototype land cover characteristics data base for the conterminous United States; surface evapotranspiration effects on cumulus convection and implications for mesoscale models; the use of complex treatment of surface hydrology and thermodynamics within a mesoscale model and some related issues; initialization of soil-water content for regional-scale atmospheric prediction models; impact of surface properties on dryline and MCS evolution; a numerical simulation of heavy precipitation over the complex topography of California; representing mesoscale fluxes induced by landscape discontinuities in global climate models; emphasizing the role of subgrid-scale heterogeneity in surface-air interaction; and problems with modeling and measuring biosphere-atmosphere exchanges of energy, water, and carbon on large scales.

Pielke, Roger↗

Effects of Mineral Impurities and Heat on Uranium(VI) Sorption onto Bentonite (Final Report)

Most nuclear waste disposal options include compacted bentonite, consisting of montmorillonite clay, as part of a barrier system to minimize contaminant mobility. Uranium (U) is the primary element in spent nuclear fuel, and from an environmental perspective, a potential contaminant of water resources. Furthermore, uranium may control nuclear fuel degradation rates and the consequent release of other radioactive contaminants based on its diffusive transport away from waste canisters. Uranium sorption onto clay and other mineral surfaces is expected to limit U(VI) mobility in these systems. However, at this point a prediction of U(VI) sorption and transport behavior in performance assessment (PA) models is complicated by a series of factors, such as: (1) the presence of various U(VI) solution species with different charges and sorption characteristics; (2) the complex microstructure of montmorillonite clay resulting in two types of clay porosities and multiple sorption sites; (3) the largely unknown effects of bentonite mineral impurities on pore water chemistry, U(VI) sorption and diffusion behavior; and (4) the potential impacts of heat, generated by the decay of spent fuel, on mineralogical and microstructural transformations, and any subsequent effects on radionuclide sorption and mobility. In this project, we investigated the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion onto montmorillonite before and after mineral exposure to heat. Overall, our main goals were to: 1. Gain a mechanistic understanding of the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption and diffusion in montmorillonite/bentonite at variable chemical conditions, and before and after mineral exposure to heat; and to 2. Work towards the development of new surface complexation and diffusion models to predict U(VI) sorption and mobility in montmorillonite/bentonite while accounting for the impacts of calcite impurities and heat. In order to achieve these goals, we pursued the following research objectives and tasks: 1. Characterize the effects of calcite impurities on U(VI) sorption onto Na-montmorillonite, and evaluate if and how these effects change due to solids’ exposure to heat (Task 1). 2. Characterize U(VI) surface speciation in solid samples from Task 1, with a particular focus on U(VI) precipitates and co-precipitates (Task 2). 3. Test the relevance of observed changes in U(VI) sorption characteristics for U(VI) diffusive transport behavior in bentonite barriers (Task 3). 4. Evaluate the exclusion of anionic U(VI) solution complexes from clay nanopores (Task 4). 5. Building on Tasks 1-4, start the development of new surface complexation and reactive transport models that can simulate and predict U(VI) sorption and diffusion in complex bentonite systems (Task 5). A detailed description of all tasks, and their specific results and conclusions is provided in this report.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

Combining Satellite Data and Models to Assess the Impacts of Urbanization on the Continental US Surface Climate

Urbanization is one of the most important and long lasting forms of land transformation. Urbanization affects the surface climate in different ways: (1) by reduction of the vegetation fraction causing subsequent reduction in photosynthesis and plant s water transpiration, (2) by alternation of surface runoff and infiltration and their impacts on soil moisture and the water table, (3) by change in the surface albedo and surface energy partitioning, and (4) by transformation of the surface roughness length and modification of surface fluxes. Land cover and land use change maps including urban areas have been developed and will be used in a suite of land surface models of different complexity to assess the impacts of urbanization on the continental US surface climate. These maps and datasets based on a full range of available satellite data and ground observations will be used to characterize distant-past (pre-urban), recent-past (2001), present (2010), and near future (2020) land cover and land use changes. The main objective of the project is to assess the impacts of these land transformation on past, current and near-future climate and the potential feedbacks from these changes on the atmospheric, hydrologic, biological, and socio-economic properties beyond the immediate metropolitan regions of cities and their near suburbs. The WRF modeling system will be used to explore the nature and the magnitude of the two-way interactions between urban lands and the atmosphere and assess the overall regional dynamic effect of urban expansion on the northeastern US weather and climate

Bounoua, L.↗

More concentrated precipitation decreases terrestrial water storage

Terrestrial water availability is a key determinant of human and ecosystem well-being. Apart from mean precipitation and evaporation changes, it is unknown how daily-scale precipitation concentration into fewer, heavier events affects hydrologic partitioning and the land water balance. Here we show observationally that more concentrated precipitation decreases land water availability across all climates globally, a drying effect as strong in magnitude as the wetting effect of increased total precipitation. Simple and complex land-surface models recover the observed effect, whereas idealized simulations show that it arises from enhanced evaporation caused by hydrologic partitioning changes at the land surface. Projected terrestrial water storage impacts of warming-driven precipitation concentration at about 2 °C of warming shift the land surface to abnormally dry conditions (≥0.5 standard deviation) for 27% of the global population, independent of any total precipitation or irrigation changes. Our results show new key determinants of the land water balance, highlighting its sensitivity to the temporal distribution of precipitation, with broad implications for future water availability.

climate change↗

Improved accuracy with phase-change paints

Technique, using effective thermophysical property, significantly improves accuracy when phase-change coating methods are used to determine heat transfer rate over surface of small complex models.

Drummond, J. D.↗

Connectionist model-based stereo vision for telerobotics

Autonomous stereo vision for range measurement could greatly enhance the performance of telerobotic systems. Stereo vision could be a key component for autonomous object recognition and localization, thus enabling the system to perform low-level tasks, and allowing a human operator to perform a supervisory role. The central difficulty in stereo vision is the ambiguity in matching corresponding points in the left and right images. However, if one has a priori knowledge of the characteristics of the objects in the scene, as is often the case in telerobotics, a model-based approach can be taken. Researchers describe how matching ambiguities can be resolved by ensuring that the resulting three-dimensional points are consistent with surface models of the expected objects. A four-layer neural network hierarchy is used in which surface models of increasing complexity are represented in successive layers. These models are represented using a connectionist scheme called parameter networks, in which a parametrized object (for example, a planar patch p=f(h,m sub x, m sub y) is represented by a collection of processing units, each of which corresponds to a distinct combination of parameter values. The activity level of each unit in the parameter network can be thought of as representing the confidence with which the hypothesis represented by that unit is believed. Weights in the network are set so as to implement gradient descent in an energy function.

Hoff, William↗

Probabilistic Thermal Analysis During Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter Aerobraking

A method for performing a probabilistic thermal analysis during aerobraking has been developed. The analysis is performed on the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter solar array during aerobraking. The methodology makes use of a response surface model derived from a more complex finite element thermal model of the solar array. The response surface is a quadratic equation which calculates the peak temperature for a given orbit drag pass at a specific location on the solar panel. Five different response surface equations are used, one of which predicts the overall maximum solar panel temperature, and the remaining four predict the temperatures of the solar panel thermal sensors. The variables used to define the response surface can be characterized as either environmental, material property, or modeling variables. Response surface variables are statistically varied in a Monte Carlo simulation. The Monte Carlo simulation produces mean temperatures and 3 sigma bounds as well as the probability of exceeding the designated flight allowable temperature for a given orbit. Response surface temperature predictions are compared with the Mars Reconnaissance Orbiter flight temperature data.

Dec, John A.↗

A Comparative Study of Simulated and Measured Main Landing Gear Noise for Large Civil Transports

Computational results for the NASA 26%-scale model of a six-wheel main landing gear with and without a toboggan-shaped noise reduction fairing are presented. The model is a high-fidelity representation of a Boeing 777-200 aircraft main landing gear. A lattice Boltzmann method was used to simulate the unsteady flow around the model in isolation. The computations were conducted in free-air at a Mach number of 0.17, matching a recent acoustic test of the same gear model in the Virginia Tech Stability Wind Tunnel in its anechoic configuration. Results obtained on a set of grids with successively finer spatial resolution demonstrate the challenge in resolving/capturing the flow field for the smaller components of the gear and their associated interactions, and the resulting effects on the high-frequency segment of the farfield noise spectrum. Farfield noise spectra were computed based on an FWH integral approach, with simulated pressures on the model solid surfaces or flow-field data extracted on a set of permeable surfaces enclosing the model as input. Comparison of these spectra with microphone array measurements obtained in the tunnel indicated that, for the present complex gear model, the permeable surfaces provide a more accurate representation of farfield noise, suggesting that volumetric effects are not negligible. The present study also demonstrates that good agreement between simulated and measured farfield noise can be achieved if consistent post-processing is applied to both physical and synthetic pressure records at array microphone locations.

Konig, Benedikt↗

Oxyanion Surface Complexes Control the Kinetics and Pathway of Ferrihydrite Transformation to Goethite and Hematite

The rate and pathway of ferrihydrite (Fh) transformation at oxic conditions to more stable products is controlled largely by temperature, pH, and the presence of other ions in the system such as nitrate (NO 3 - ), sulfate (SO 4 2- ), and arsenate (AsO 4 3- ). Although the mechanism of Fh transformation and oxyanion complexation have been separately studied, the effect of surface complex type and strength on the rate and pathway remains only partly understood. We have developed a kinetic model that describes the effects of surface complex type and strength on Fh transformation to goethite (Gt) and hematite (Hm). Two sets of oxyanion-adsorbed Fh samples were prepared, nonbuffered and buffered, aged at 70 ± 1.5 °C, and then characterized using synchrotron X-ray scattering methods and wet chemical analysis. Kinetic modeling showed a significant decrease in the rate of Fh transformation for oxyanion surface complexes dominated by strong inner-sphere (SO 4 2- and AsO 4 3- ) versus weak outer-sphere (NO 3 - ) bonding and the control. The results also showed that the Fh transformation pathway is influenced by the type of surface complex such that with increasing strength of bonding, a smaller fraction of Gt forms compared with Hm. In conclusion, these findings are important for understanding and predicting the role of Fh in controlling the transport and fate of metal and metalloid oxyanions in natural and applied systems.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Land Model Testbed: Accelerating Development, Benchmarking and Analysis of Land Surface Models

A Land Model Testbed (LMT), designed to provide a computational framework for systematically assessing model fidelity and supporting rapid development of complex multiscale models, offers a general-purpose workflow for conducting large ensemble simulations of multiple land surface models, post-processing large volumes of model output, and evaluating model results. It leverages existing tools for launching model simulations and the International Land Model Benchmarking (ILAMB) package for assessing model fidelity through comparison with best-available observational datasets. Increased complexity and proliferation of uncertain parameters in process representations in land surface models has driven the need for frequent and intensive testing and evaluating of models to quantify uncertainties and optimize parameters such that results are consistent with observations. The LMT described here meets these needs by providing tools to run thousands of ensemble simulations simultaneously and post-process their output files, by automating execution of an enhanced version of ILAMB with site-specific benchmarks and multivariate functional relationships, and by offering ensemble diagnostics and a customizable dashboard for displaying model performance metrics and associated graphics. We envision the LMT capabilities will serve as a foundational computational resource for a proposed user facility focused on terrestrial multiscale model--data integration.

Sreepathi, Sarat↗

X-29A longitudinal and directional force and moment supplemental transonic wind tunnel test results

Aerodynamic data from NASA Ames Research Center's 11-Foot Transonic Wind Tunnel are plotted for the 1/8-scale X-29A forward-swept wing aircraft model. Eleven configurations were tested to provide supplemental data to investigate single surface failure modes, complex nonlinearities, and model buildup. These data can be used for control system refinements, pilot training, flight planning, and aerodynamic model validation. Data are presented as corrected wind tunnel data without analysis to document results that are being used for the aerodynamic model.

Bowers, A. H.↗

Using Machine Learning to Estimate Surface-Level SO2 Concentrations from Satellite-Based Measurements

Sulfur dioxide (SO2) is a criteria air pollutant due to its contributions to aerosol formation, rainfall acidification, and harm to human health. The placement of air quality monitoring sites is typically biased towards urban areas, leaving large areas with very limited monitoring data. The Ozone Monitoring Instrument (OMI) has been used to provide estimates of SO2 vertical column densities (VCDs) globally at spatial resolution of 10s of kms once per day. OMI SO2 VCDs have been previously used to estimate surface SO2 concentrations using chemical transport model (CTM) simulations. The CTMs use estimated emissions and assimilated meteorological data, and simulate the chemical and physical processes that determine the vertical profile of SO2, which can be used to derive a ratio between the surface concentrations and VCDs. These models are complex, computationally expensive, and have large uncertainties in the simulated surface-to-VCD ratio due to biases in emissions and relatively coarse resolution. Machine learning techniques are comparatively easier to use, much less computationally expensive to use after training, and can produce more accurate estimations of surface concentrations than the CTM-based method. The interpretation of machine learning models often poses challenges, and in some cases, non-physical variables unrelated to SO2 are used as predictors. In this work, we create an artificial neural network (ANN) to relate OMI retrievals and archived GEOS-FP boundary layer heights to surface SO2 concentrations from the ChinaHighAirPollutants ChinaHighSO2 dataset (CHAP; Wei et al., 2023) on a seasonal average timescale from 2013-2018. Our model only utilizes five variables that are directly relevant to the satellite retrieval, lifetime, and spatial distribution of SO2. The model was trained on 16 seasons (four of each) with independent validation (one of each season) and testing datasets (one of each season) to avoid overfitting. Our ANN generates surface SO2 concentrations that are sensitive (slope = 0.51) and consistent (r = 0.74) with the CHAP data, but are underpredicted by an average of 1.2 ppbv with a mean absolute error of 2.2 ppbv. These results are better than recent studies utilizing the CTM method. To our knowledge, this is the best performing machine learning model that only uses physical variables to predict surface SO2. Our work demonstrates that a carefully constructed, simple ML model can accurately estimate surface-based SO2 concentrations from satellite VCD measurements, and this technique has future promise to expend to newer, higher resolution satellites and other air pollutants.

SO2, air quality, OMI, machine learning↗

Testbed Results for Scalar and Vector Radiative Transfer Computations of Light in Atmosphere-Ocean Systems

We generate and tabulate reflectance values of the Stokes parameters I, Q, and U of upwelling radiance just above a rough ocean surface and at the top of the atmosphere (TOA) for 100 scattering geometries, four atmosphere-ocean systems, and four wavelengths. The atmosphere-ocean systems increase in complexity from (a) a molecular atmosphere above a rough ocean surface (AOS-I model); to (b) a pure water body below a rough ocean surface (AOS-II model); to (c) a fully-coupled simple atmosphere-ocean system (AOS-III model) containing a molecular atmosphere, rough ocean surface, and pure water; to (d) a fully-coupled complex atmosphere-ocean system (AOS-IV model) that includes scattering by molecules, rough ocean surface, pure water, and hydrosols. Our wavelengths (350, 450, 550, and 650 nm) capture the ultraviolet-visible range. Our tables provide radiative transfer (RT) testbed results for atmosphere-ocean systems with an accuracy that surpasses the measurement accuracy of state-of-the-art polarimeters. To validate the accuracy of these tables we performed computations using three independent RT codes that provide deterministic numerical solutions for the RT equation. The agreement is 10(exp –5) for AOS-IV model, and 10(exp –6) for the other models. The degree of linear polarization computed by these RT codes differs by ≤0.2% for 15 isolated cases of tabulated reflectance values, and by ≤0.1% for all remaining cases. We also provide comparisons with results obtained by a stochastic RT code for AOS-I model. The agreement between the deterministic and stochastic results for this model is 10(exp –5) at TOA, and 10(exp –6) above the ocean surface.

Polarimeters↗

Igneous intrusion models for floor fracturing in lunar craters

Lunar floor-fractured craters are primarily located near the maria and frequently contain ponded mare units and dark mantling deposits. Fracturing is confined to the crater interior, often producing a moat-like feature near the floor edge, and crater depth is commonly reduced by uplift of the crater floor. Although viscous relaxation of crater topography can produce such uplift, the close association of modification with surface volcanism supports a model linking floor fracture to crater-centered igneous intrusions. The consequences of two intrusion models for the lunar interior are quantitatively explored. The first model is based on terrestrial laccoliths and describes a shallow intrusion beneath the crater. The second model is based on cone sheet complexes where surface deformation results from a deeper magma chamber. Both models, their fit to observed crater modifications and possible implications for local volcanism are described.

Wichman, R. W.↗