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At least 73 records · Page 4

Frequency stability of GPS NAVSTAR block 1 and block 2 on-orbit clocks

Analysis of the frequency stability of the on-orbit NAVSTAR clocks os performed by the Naval Research Laboratory. The frequency stability is presented for sample times of one day to 30 days. Composite frequency stability profiles are presented for Block 1 and Block 2 NAVSTAR clocks. Several NAVSTAR cesium clocks show frequency stabilities of a few parts in 10^(14) for long sample times. Time-domain noise-process analysis shows the dominant noise type to be white frequency noise for sample times of one to ten days. The non-stationary stochastic behavior of one of the cesium clocks, illustrated by its frequency stability history, shows that the frequency stability is not always time-invariant.

Thomas B. Mccaskill↗

Stochastic control and the second law of thermodynamics

The second law of thermodynamics is studied from the point of view of stochastic control theory. We find that the feedback control laws which are of interest are those which depend only on average values, and not on sample path behavior. We are lead to a criterion which, when satisfied, permits one to assign a temperature to a stochastic system in such a way as to have Carnot cycles be the optimal trajectories of optimal control problems. Entropy is also defined and we are able to prove an equipartition of energy theorem using this definition of temperature. Our formulation allows one to treat irreversibility in a quite natural and completely precise way.

Brockett, R. W.↗

The second-moment climatology of the GATE rain rate data

The first part of this paper presents the description of the GARP (Global Atmospheric Research Program) Atlantic Tropical Experiment (GATE) 1 rain-rate data and its two-dimensional spectral and correlation characteristics, which has made it possible to accomplish the following: to show the concentration of a significant power along the frequency axis in the spatiotemporal spectra; to detect a diurnal cycle (which has a range of variation of about 3.4-5.4 mm/n) as one of the sources of bias in the rain statistics of satellite data; to study the distinction between the north-south and east-west transport of spatial rain-rate field and character of its anisotropy; to evaluate the scales of the distinction between second-moment estimates associated with ground and satellite samples; and to determine the appropriate spatial and temporal scales of simple linear stochastic models fitted to averaged rain-rate fields. The second part of this paper is devoted to an analysis of the diffusion of the rain rate by establishing a relationship between the parameters of the multivariate autoregressive model and the coefficients of a diffusion equation. This analysis led to the use of rain data to estimate the rain advection velocity as well as other coefficients of the diffusion equation of the corresponding field. The results obtained can be used for comparison with corresponding estimates of other sources of data (satellite, Tropical Oceans Global Atmosphere Coupled Ocean - Atmosphere Response Experiment (TOGA, COARE) or simulated by physical models), for generating multiple samples of any size, for solving the inverse problems of some of the hydrodynamic equations, and in some other areas of rain data analysis and modeling.

Polyak, Ilya↗

Predictions of the structure of turbulent, particle-laden, round jets

Models of gas and particle motion in turbulent, particle-laden, round jets were evaluated using existing measurements of flow structure. Three models were considered: (1) a locally homogeneous flow model, where velocities and turbulent mixing properties of both phases were assumed to be equal; (2) a deterministic separated flow model, where interphase slip was considered but effects of turbulent dispersion were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow model where effects of interphase slip and turbulent dispersion were considered using random sampling techniques. In all three cases, mean and turbulent properties of the continuous phase were found with a well-calibrated k-epsilon model. The locally homogeneous flow and deterministic separated flow models over- and underestimated particle spread and flow development rates, respectively. The stochastic separated flow model, however, yielded satisfactory predictions of flow structure - except at high particle loadings. Uncertainties in initial conditions for the measurements and possible effects of turbulence modulation by the particles are proposed as the reason for these errors.

Shuen, J.-S.↗

Autonomous Ocean World Exploration: Advancement of a Virtual Testbed

The search for life (extinct or extant) and potentially habitable bodies in our solar system and beyond is one of the 12 priority science questions outlined in the National Acadamies’ 2022 decadal survey [5]. Extraterrestrial destinations containing liquid water present an opportunity to search for life as we know it, and in recent years an increasing number of such locations have been discovered within our solar system. Several Jovian moons—Europa, Ganymede, and Callisto [10]—and the Saturnian moons Enceladus [8] and Titan [9] are known or suspected to harbor massive subsurface oceans. Of these "ocean worlds", Europa is the focus of at least one planned NASA orbiter mission, Europa Clipper [4], and an early lander mission concept, the Europa Lander [2, 3]. Whereas most robotic missions to the Moon and Mars (e.g. orbiters, rovers, landers) to date have had ground controllers on Earth tightly involved in mission operations, missions to more distant worlds will require a high degree of onboard autonomy due to long communication lags and blackouts, harsh environments (radiation, cold), and more limited battery and hardware life. The past decade has seen great advances in both AI technologies and computing scalability and performance that offer promising solutions for spacecraft autonomy and motivate the software system and research programs described in this paper. The Ocean Worlds Autonomy Testbed for Exploration, Research, and Simulation (OceanWATERS) [1], which has been in development at the NASA Ames Research Center since 2018, is a virtual environment for testing lander autonomy solutions. It is built on the Robot Operating System (ROS), runs on consumer-grade Linux workstations, and was released as open source in 2020. OceanWATERS provides a physical and visual simulation of a prototypical lander in a Europa-like environment (Figure 1). The lander was modeled after requirements and specifications made in JPL’s Europa Lander Study of 2016 [3]. Simulated lander systems include stereo cameras and spotlights mounted on an antenna mast that pans and tilts, a 6 degrees of freedom (DoF) robotic arm with a force-torque sensor and two interchangeable end effectors, and a battery pack power system. The environment consists of multiple terrain models including a highly detailed model sourced from the FROST dataset [11], simulation of surrounding planetary bodies based on an ephemeris model, and lighting from the sun with associated surface illumination, reflectance, and shadows. Operations supported by OceanWATERS include panoramic and directed imaging of the environment and lander workspace, Cartesian and joint-level arm commanding, grinding of the terrain surface (e.g. digging a trench), and scooping of ground material (Figure 2) which can be discarded or collected as science samples in a receptacle that can be emptied (science operations themselves are not simulated). These operations are realized as ROS Actions and are complimented by a wide selection of telemetry that is continually produced by each lander subsystem. The power system model is driven by the open-source Generic Software Architecture for Prognostics (GSAP) [11] that predicts the battery’s remaining useful life and other characteristics. As a testbed for high-level autonomy, OceanWATERS provides an execution framework based on PLEXIL [12], an open-source plan specification language and execution engine developed largely at Ames. NASA's initial development of OceanWATERS, as well the Ocean Worlds Lander Autonomy Testbed (OWLAT) [6], a complimentary physical testbed developed at JPL, was the first step in a plan for realizing candidate onboard autonomy solutions for such planetary landers. In 2020 NASA solicited applications for its Autonomous Robotics Research for Ocean Worlds (ARROW) program, and in 2021 the similar Concepts for Ocean worlds Life Detection Technology (COLDTech) program. Collectively six research teams, based in universities and companies across the United States, were awarded grants to develop and demonstrate autonomy solutions on OceanWATERS and OWLAT. These 1–2-year projects have now finished or are nearing completion, and a wide variety of autonomy challenges in ocean world surface missions were addressed. Prototyped and demonstrated solutions have included autonomous discovery, response and adaptation to system faults and unexpected environmental events, world model synthesis through perception, plan synthesis using learned models, methods to optimize sample target selection and prioritize science data transmission, extension of PLEXIL for stochastic decision-making, and an integration of a model of JPL’s mission-ready COLDArm [7]. Technologies used in these projects include many forms of machine learning, causal reasoning, automated planning, Markov decision processes, formal methods, and other advanced techniques. A more detailed summary of the ARROW and COLDTech projects is given herein. OceanWATERS has had significant enhancements since its open-source release in 2020. Many of its new features were driven or shaped by feedback from the ARROW and COLDTech teams and requirements of their projects. In support of enabling autonomous adaptation to spacecraft faults (a specific capability solicited by both programs), a fault injection and detection framework was developed that supports a wide and growing range of fault types such as locked joints, image loss, and battery failures. The power system model was completed and integrated into the simulator, starting as a single-cell battery model and later upgraded to a multi-cell model with associated faults such as cell disconnection. Arm/terrain interaction was improved by adding a force-torque sensor and associated faults, and an analytic dig force model based on the Balovnev bucket force equations. Environment fidelity was increased by modeling terrain deformation resulting from digging and scooping; visual improvements were made in textures, lighting, and shadows. To facilitate interoperation with OWLAT, a unified command and telemetry interface between the testbeds was developed at the ROS level, along with a PLEXIL interface. The number of lander operations was greatly expanded (e.g. with Cartesian-based arm and antenna movement), and a framework was designed for users to build their own lander actions. A GUI for PLEXIL plan selection was created (Figure 3), and an expansive set of plans were added, such as those that illustrate patterns for fault handling. This paper provides a self-contained high-level description of OceanWATERS, focusing on more detailed coverage of the aforementioned enhancements. It provides a high-level summary of the projects undertaken by participants in the ARROW and COLDTech programs and how these efforts have helped shape OceanWATERS. Finally, potential future work and directions for the testbed are listed, as likely informed by the recent planetary science decadal survey [5].

K Michael Dalal↗

A comparative study of Conroy and Monte Carlo methods applied to multiple quadratures and multiple scattering

An efficient numerical method of multiple quadratures, the Conroy method, is applied to the problem of computing multiple scattering contributions in the radiative transfer through realistic planetary atmospheres. A brief error analysis of the method is given and comparisons are drawn with the more familiar Monte Carlo method. Both methods are stochastic problem-solving models of a physical or mathematical process and utilize the sampling scheme for points distributed over a definite region. In the Monte Carlo scheme the sample points are distributed randomly over the integration region. In the Conroy method, the sample points are distributed systematically, such that the point distribution forms a unique, closed, symmetrical pattern which effectively fills the region of the multidimensional integration. The methods are illustrated by two simple examples: one, of multidimensional integration involving two independent variables, and the other, of computing the second order scattering contribution to the sky radiance.

Deepak, A.↗

Stochastic stability properties of jump linear systems

Jump linear systems are defined as a family of linear systems with randomly jumping parameters (usually governed by a Markov jump process) and are used to model systems subject to failures or changes in structure. The authors study stochastic stability properties in jump linear systems and the relationship among various moment and sample path stability properties. It is shown that all second moment stability properties are equivalent and are sufficient for almost sure sample path stability, and a testable necessary and sufficient condition for second moment stability is derived. The Lyapunov exponent method for the study of almost sure sample stability is discussed, and a theorem which characterizes the Lyapunov exponents of jump linear systems is presented.

Feng, Xiangbo↗

Structure of nonevaporating sprays - Measurements and predictions

Structure measurements were completed within the dilute portion of axisymmetric nonevaporating sprays (SMD of 30 and 87 microns) injected into a still air environment, including: mean and fluctuating gas velocities and Reynolds stress using laser-Doppler anemometry; mean liquid fluxes using isokinetic sampling; drop sizes using slide impaction; and drop sizes and velocities using multiflash photography. The new measurements were used to evaluate three representative models of sprays: (1) a locally homogeneous flow (LHF) model, where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) a deterministic separated flow (DSF) model, where slip was considered but effects of drop interaction with turbulent fluctuations were ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow (SSF) model, where effects of both interphase slip and turbulent fluctuations were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for drop motion. The LHF and DSF models were unsatisfactory for present test conditions-both underestimating flow widths and the rate of spread of drops. In contrast, the SSF model provided reasonably accurate predictions, including effects of enhanced spreading rates of sprays due to drop dispersion by turbulence, with all empirical parameters fixed from earlier work.

Solomon, A. S. P.↗

Hybrid state-space self-tuning control using dual-rate sampling

This paper presents a hybrid state-space self-tuning control scheme using dual-rate sampling for suboptimal digital adaptive control of linear time-invariant continuous-time multivariable stochastic systems with unknown parameters. An equivalent fast-rate discrete-time state-space innovation model (with estimated states) of the continuous-time system is constructed by using the estimated system parameters and Kalman gain. To utilize the existing optimal regional-pole assignment method developed in the continuous-time domain, the constructed fast-rate discrete-time model is converted into an equivalent continuous-time model for the development of a state-feedback optimal control law with pole placement in a specific region. The developed analog optimal control law is then converted into an equivalent pseudo-slow-rate digital control law via the proposed digital redesign technique, which can be realized via slow-rate digital electronics. The proposed method enables the development of a digitally implementable advanced control algorithm for digital adaptive control of continuous-time multivariable stochastic systems which may be unstable and/or have nonminimum phase.

Shieh, Leang S.↗

Two stochastic models useful in petroleum exploration

A model of the petroleum exploration process that tests empirically the hypothesis that at an early stage in the exploration of a basin, the process behaves like sampling without replacement is proposed along with a model of the spatial distribution of petroleum reserviors that conforms to observed facts. In developing the model of discovery, the following topics are discussed: probabilitistic proportionality, likelihood function, and maximum likelihood estimation. In addition, the spatial model is described, which is defined as a stochastic process generating values of a sequence or random variables in a way that simulates the frequency distribution of areal extent, the geographic location, and shape of oil deposits

Kaufman, G. M.↗

On the Impact Angle of Hurricane Sandy's New Jersey Landfall

Hurricane Sandy's track crossed the New Jersey coastline at an angle closer to perpendicular than any previous hurricane in the historic record, one of the factors contributing to recordsetting peak-water levels in parts of New Jersey and New York. To estimate the occurrence rate of Sandy-like tracks, we use a stochastic model built on historical hurricane data from the entire North Atlantic to generate a large sample of synthetic hurricanes. From this synthetic set we calculate that under long-term average climate conditions, a hurricane of Sandy's intensity or greater (category 1+) makes NJ landfall at an angle at least as close to perpendicular as Sandy's at an average annual rate of 0.0014 yr-1 (95% confidence range 0.0007 to 0.0023); i.e., a return period of 714 years (95% confidence range 435 to 1429).

hurricanes↗

Optimizing Integrated Terminal Airspace Operations Under Uncertainty

In the terminal airspace, integrated departures and arrivals have the potential to increase operations efficiency. Recent research has developed geneticalgorithm- based schedulers for integrated arrival and departure operations under uncertainty. This paper presents an alternate method using a machine jobshop scheduling formulation to model the integrated airspace operations. A multistage stochastic programming approach is chosen to formulate the problem and candidate solutions are obtained by solving sample average approximation problems with finite sample size. Because approximate solutions are computed, the proposed algorithm incorporates the computation of statistical bounds to estimate the optimality of the candidate solutions. A proof-ofconcept study is conducted on a baseline implementation of a simple problem considering a fleet mix of 14 aircraft evolving in a model of the Los Angeles terminal airspace. A more thorough statistical analysis is also performed to evaluate the impact of the number of scenarios considered in the sampled problem. To handle extensive sampling computations, a multithreading technique is introduced.

air traffic optimization↗

Frequency-wavenumber spectrum for GATE phase I rainfields

The oceanic rainfall frequency-wavenumber spectrum and its associated space-time correlation have been evaluated from subsets of GATE phase I data. The records, of a duration of four days, were sampled at 15 minutes intervals in 4 x 4 km grid boxes over a 400 km diameter hexagon. In the low frequencies-low wavenumber region the results coincide with those obtained by using the stochastic model proposed by North and Nakomoto (1989). From the derived spectrum the inherent time and space scales of the stochastic model were determined to be approximately 13 hours and 36 km. The formalism proposed by North and Nakamoto was taken together with the derived spectrum to compute the mean square sampling error due to intermittent visits of a spaceborne sensor.

Nakamoto, Shoichiro↗

Particle-laden weakly swirling free jets: Measurements and predictions

A theoretical and experimental investigation of particle-laden, weakly swirling, turbulent free jets was conducted. Glass particles, having a Sauter mean diameter of 39 microns, with a standard deviation of 15 microns, were used. A single loading ratio (the mass flow rate of particles per unit mass flow rate of air) of 0.2 was used in the experiments. Measurements are reported for three swirl numbers, ranging from 0 to 0.33. The measurements included mean and fluctuating velocities of both phases, and particle mass flux distributions. Measurements were also completed for single-phase non-swirling and swirling jets, as baselines. Measurements were compared with predictions from three types of multiphase flow analysis, as follows: (1) locally homogeneous flow (LHF) where slip between the phases was neglected; (2) deterministic separated flow (DSF), where slip was considered but effects of turbulence/particle interactions were neglected; and (3) stochastic separated flow (SSF), where effects of both interphase slip and turbulence/particle interactions were considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for particle motion. Single-phase weakly swirling jets were considered first. Predictions using a standard k-epsilon turbulence model, as well as two versions modified to account for effects of streamline curvature, were compared with measurements. Predictions using a streamline curvature modification based on the flux Richardson number gave better agreement with measurements for the single-phase swirling jets than the standard k-epsilon model. For the particle-laden jets, the LHF and DSF models did not provide very satisfactory predictions. The LHF model generally overestimated the rate of decay of particle mean axial and angular velocities with streamwise distance, and predicted particle mass fluxes also showed poor agreement with measurements, due to the assumption of no-slip between phases. The DSF model also performed quite poorly for predictions of particle mass flux because turbulent dispersion of the particles was neglected. The SSF model, which accounts for both particle inertia and turbulent dispersion of the particles, yielded reasonably good predictions throughout the flow field for the particle-laden jets.

Bulzan, Daniel L.↗

Galaxy Correlation Function and Local Density from Photometric Redshifts Using the Stochastic Order Redshift Technique (SORT)

The stochastic order redshift technique (SORT) is a simple, efficient, and robust method to improve cosmological redshift measurements. The method relies upon having a small (∼10 per cent) reference sample of high-quality redshifts. Within pencil- beam-like sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy, we use the precise dN/dz distribution of the reference sample to recover new redshifts and assign them one-to-one to galaxies such that the original rank order of redshifts is preserved. Preserving the rank order is motivated by the fact that random variables drawn from Gaussian probability density functions with different means but equal standard deviations satisfy stochastic ordering. This process is repeated for sub-volumes surrounding each galaxy in the survey. This results in every galaxy being assigned multiple ‘recovered’ redshifts from which a new redshift estimate is determined. An earlier paper applied SORT to a mock Sloan Digital Sky Survey at z 0.2 and accurately recovered the two-point correlation function (2PCF) on scales > 4 h−1Mpc. In this paper, we test the performance of SORT in surveys spanning the redshift range 0.75 < z < 2.25. We used two mock surveys extracted from the Small MultiDark–Planck and Bolshoi–Planck N-body simulations with dark matter haloes that were populated by the Santa Cruz semi-analytic model. We find that SORT overall improves redshift estimates, accurately recovers the redshift-space 2PCF ξ (s) on scales > 2.5 h−1Mpc, and provides improved local density estimates in regions of average or higher density, which may allow for improved understanding of how galaxy properties relate to their environments.

James Kakos↗

The structure of evaporating and combusting sprays: Measurements and predictions

The structure of particle-laden jets and nonevaporating and evaporating sprays was measured in order to evaluate models of these processes. Three models are being evaluated: (1) a locally homogeneous flow model, where slip between the phases is neglected and the flow is assumed to be in local thermodynamic equilibrium; (2) a deterministic separated flow model, where slip and finite interphase transport rates are considered but effects of particle/drop dispersion by turbulence and effects of turbulence on interphase transport rates are ignored; and (3) a stochastic separated flow model, where effects of interphase slip, turbulent dispersion and turbulent fluctuations are considered using random sampling for turbulence properties in conjunction with random-walk computations for particle motion. All three models use a k-e-g turbulence model. All testing and data reduction are completed for the particle laden jets. Mean and fluctuating velocities of the continuous phase and mean mixture fraction were measured in the evaporating sprays.

Shuen, J. S.↗

Modeling the Stochastic Response of Fiber Reinforced Composites with Varied Representative Volume Element Sizes

Fiber reinforced composites are desirable in applications where low weight and high strength are needed, but are susceptible to variability and flaws during manufacturing, making failure predictions difficult. These flaws may occur at the microscale where mechanical properties vary locally due to regions of fiber clusters and matrix pockets. In this study, a multiscale approach was taken to model 3-point bend, 4-point bend, and tensile experiments of a unidirectional composite from only having microstructure scans of these samples and constituent properties from literature. These scans were sampled with different sized windows, and statistically equivalent microstructures were generated, then simulated for stiffness, strength, and fracture toughness using a reduced order micromechanical model and NASA’s Multiscale Analysis Tool (NASMAT). Mesoscale models were created with equivalent element sizes to microstructures and properties sampled from microscale simulation results. Results showed how microscale size affects certain mechanical properties. Also shown is how well mesoscale models agree to experiments when using stochastic element properties and varying element size.

microstructure↗