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At least 73 records · Page 4

Statistical analysis of multivariate atmospheric variables

Topics covered include: (1) estimation in discrete multivariate distributions; (2) a procedure to predict cloud cover frequencies in the bivariate case; (3) a program to compute conditional bivariate normal parameters; (4) the transformation of nonnormal multivariate to near-normal; (5) test of fit for the extreme value distribution based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (6) test of fit for continuous distributions based upon the generalized minimum chi-square; (7) effect of correlated observations on confidence sets based upon chi-square statistics; and (8) generation of random variates from specified distributions.

Tubbs, J. D.↗

Formation of a Tropopause Cirrus Layer Observed over Florida during CRYSTAL-FACE

On July 13, 2002 a widespread, subvisible tropopause cirrus layer occurred over the Florida region. This cloud was observed in great detail with the NASA Cirrus Regional Study of Tropical Anvils and Cirrus Layers-Florida Area Cirrus Experiment (CRYSTAL-FACE) instrumentation, including in situ measurements with the WB-57 aircraft. In this paper, we use the 13 July cloud as a case study to evaluate the physical processes controlling the formation and evolution of tropopause cirrus layers. Microphysics measurements indicate that ice crystal diameters in the cloud layer ranged from about 7 to 50 microns, and the peak number mode was about 10-25 microns. In situ water vapor and temperature measurements in the cloud indicated supersaturation with respect to ice throughout, with ice saturation ratios as large as 1.8. Even when the ice surface area density was as high as about 500 sq microns/cu cm, ice supersaturations of 20-30% were observed. Trajectory analysis shows that the air sampled near the tropopause on this day generally came from the north and cooled considerably during the previous few days. Examination of infrared satellite imagery along air parcel back trajectories from the WB-57 flight track indicates that the tropopause cloud layer formation was, in general, not simply left over ice from recently generated anvil cirrus. Simulations of cloud formation using time-height curtains of temperature along the trajectory paths show that the cloud could have formed in situ near the tropopause as the air was advected into the south Florida region and cooled to unusually low temperatures. If we assume a high threshold for ice nucleation via homogeneous freezing of aqueous sulfate aerosols, the model reproduces the observed cloud structure, ice crystal size distributions, and ice supersaturation statistics. Inclusion of observed gravity wave temperature perturbations in the simulations is essential to reproduce the observed cloud properties. Without waves, crystal number densities are too low, crystal sizes are too large, and the crystals fall out too fast, leaving very little cloud persisting at the end of the simulations. In the cloud simulations, coincidence of high supersaturations and high surface areas can be produced by either recent nucleation or sedimentation of crystals into supersaturated layers. The agreement between model results and observed supersaturations is improved somewhat if we assume that the steady state relative humidity within cirrus at T<200 K is enhanced by about 30%. The WB-57 measurements and the model results suggest that the cloud layer irreversibly dehydrated air near the tropopause.

Jensen, Eric↗

Results of the joint NASA/NOAA AMTS/HIRS2 sounding simulation test

The relative accuracies of atmospheric temperature profiles retrieved from HIRS2, the current operational infra-red temperature sounder, and AMTS, a proposed advanced high-spectral resolution infra-red sounder were compared. The sounding simulation test compared retrievals generated by GLAS, using their physical retrieval algorithm, and NESDIS, using their operational statistical regression algorithm, for both instruments under clear and cloudy conditions. Test results for both conditions are summarized in tables showing RMS temperature errors for 18 tropospheric layers, 4 stratospheric layers, and surface skin temperature. The improvement of the AMTS instrument over HIRS2, particularly for cloudy conditions is demonstrated. The GLAS retrievals are more accurate than the operational NESDIS retrieval, especially with increasing cloud cover.

Susskind, J.↗

Mesoscale acid deposition modeling studies

The work performed in support of the EPA/DOE MADS (Mesoscale Acid Deposition) Project included the development of meteorological data bases for the initialization of chemistry models, the testing and implementation of new planetary boundary layer parameterization schemes in the MASS model, the simulation of transport and precipitation for MADS case studies employing the MASS model, and the use of the TASS model in the simulation of cloud statistics and the complex transport of conservative tracers within simulated cumuloform clouds. The work performed in support of the NASA/FAA Wind Shear Program included the use of the TASS model in the simulation of the dynamical processes within convective cloud systems, the analyses of the sensitivity of microburst intensity and general characteristics as a function of the atmospheric environment within which they are formed, comparisons of TASS model microburst simulation results to observed data sets, and the generation of simulated wind shear data bases for use by the aviation meteorological community in the evaluation of flight hazards caused by microbursts.

Kaplan, Michael L.↗

A study of Stormsat interactive data analysis facility

Stormsat, a third generation geosynchronous satellite intended for the investigation and forecasting of severe local storms, tropical cyclones and other mesoscale phenomena, could be launched as early as 1982. The paper outlines the interactive data processing and analysis functions which must be performed and presents a possible configuration capable of achieving the demonstration forecast objectives. Important features of the data processing system include (1) interactive extraction of wind, temperature and moisture profiles, cloud structure and precipitation from Stormsat data, and (2) numerical and statistical modeling necessary to provide demonstration forecasts.

Hasler, A. F.↗

Energy Management Operations for the InSight Solar-Powered Mission at Mars

This paper discusses how the change in launch date has changed the energy management challenges for InSight, and how the energy management approach for surface operations has been adapted to address those challenges. It also describes how energy balance and battery life are protected over the course of the InSight landed mission, in terms of a deliberate balance between autonomous on-board fault protection and ground commanding into reduced-load configurations that still make progress versus specific, prioritized mission success criteria. It describes the project’s unique statistical analysis and usage of Mars Exploration Rovers (MER) archived data on solar energy collection to develop and validate an explicit prelaunch margin policy versus energy reductions due to environment variability over multiple-sol sequences. And finally, the paper explains how this archived energy data has influenced the modification of the Phoenix-heritage autonomous fault protection, to guard against quickly-arising inclement power-generation conditions, such as rapid onset of a local dust storm or water ice cloud front.

Lisano II, MIchael E.↗

Radiative Susceptibility of Cloudy Atmospheres to Droplet Number Perturbations: 2. Global analysis from MODIS

Global distributions of albedo susceptibility for areas covered by liquid clouds are presented for 4 months in 2005. The susceptibility estimates are based on expanded definitions presented in a companion paper and include relative cloud droplet number concentration (CDNC) changes, perturbations in cloud droplet asymmetry parameter and single-scattering albedo, atmospheric/surface effects, and incorporation of the full solar spectrum. The cloud properties (optical thickness and effective radius) used as input in the susceptibility calculations come from MODIS Terra and Aqua Collection 5 gridded data. Geographical distributions of susceptibility corresponding to absolute ( absolute cloud susceptibility ) and relative ( relative cloud susceptibility ) CDNC changes are markedly different indicating that the detailed nature of the cloud microphysical perturbation is important for determining the radiative forcing associated with the first indirect aerosol effect. However, both types of susceptibility exhibit common characteristics such as significant reductions when perturbations in single-scattering properties are omitted, significant increases when atmospheric absorption and surface albedo effects are ignored, and the tendency to decrease with latitude, to be higher over ocean than over land, and to be statistically similar between the morning and afternoon MODIS overpasses. The satellite-based susceptibility analysis helps elucidate the role of present-day cloud and land surface properties in indirect aerosol forcing responses. Our realistic yet moderate CDNC perturbations yield forcings on the order of 1-2 W/sq m for cloud optical property distributions and land surface spectral albedos observed by MODIS. Since susceptibilities can potentially be computed from model fields, these results have practical application in assessing the reasonableness of model-generated estimates of the aerosol indirect radiative forcing.

Oreopoulos, Lazaros↗

Use of MODIS Cloud Top Pressure to Improve Assimilation Yields of AIRS Radiances in GSI

Improvements to global and regional numerical weather prediction have been demonstrated through assimilation of data from NASA's Atmospheric Infrared Sounder (AIRS). Current operational data assimilation systems use AIRS radiances, but impact on regional forecasts has been much smaller than for global forecasts. Previously, it has been shown that cloud top designation associated with quality control procedures within the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) system used operationally by a number of Joint Center for Satellite Data Assimilation (JCSDA) partners may not provide the best representation of cloud top pressure (CTP). Because this designated CTP determines which channels are cloud-free and, thus, available for assimilation, ensuring the most accurate representation of this value is imperative to obtaining the greatest impact from satellite radiances. This paper examines the assimilation of hyperspectral sounder data used in operational numerical weather prediction by comparing analysis increments and numerical forecasts generated using operational techniques with a research technique that swaps CTP from the Moderate-resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) for the value of CTP calculated from the radiances within GSI.

Zavodsky, Bradley↗

Precipitation Processes developed during ARM (1997), TOGA COARE(1992), GATE(1 974), SCSMEX(1998) and KWAJEX(1999): Consistent 2D and 3D Cloud Resolving Model Simulations

Real clouds and clouds systems are inherently three dimensional (3D). Because of the limitations in computer resources, however, most cloud-resolving models (CRMs) today are still two-dimensional (2D). A few 3D CRMs have been used to study the response of clouds to large-scale forcing. In these 3D simulations, the model domain was small, and the integration time was 6 hours. Only recently have 3D experiments been performed for multi-day periods for tropical cloud system with large horizontal domains at the National Center for Atmospheric Research. The results indicate that surface precipitation and latent heating profiles are very similar between the 2D and 3D simulations of these same cases. The reason for the strong similarity between the 2D and 3D CRM simulations is that the observed large-scale advective tendencies of potential temperature, water vapor mixing ratio, and horizontal momentum were used as the main forcing in both the 2D and 3D models. Interestingly, the 2D and 3D versions of the CRM used in CSU and U.K. Met Office showed significant differences in the rainfall and cloud statistics for three ARM cases. The major objectives of this project are to calculate and axamine: (1)the surface energy and water budgets, (2) the precipitation processes in the convective and stratiform regions, (3) the cloud upward and downward mass fluxes in the convective and stratiform regions; (4) cloud characteristics such as size, updraft intensity and lifetime, and (5) the entrainment and detrainment rates associated with clouds and cloud systems that developed in TOGA COARE, GATE, SCSMEX, ARM and KWAJEX. Of special note is that the analyzed (model generated) data sets are all produced by the same current version of the GCE model, i.e. consistent model physics and configurations. Trajectory analyse and inert tracer calculation will be conducted to identify the differences and similarities in the organization of convection between simulated 2D and 3D cloud systems.

Tao, W.-K.↗

Spatial distribution of plasma wave activity in the nightside ionosphere of Venus

In this study we use 14 years of Pioneer Venus Orbiter Electric Field Detector (OEFD) data to define the characteristics of (VLF) burst activity in the nightside ionosphere of Venus. Our statistical results show that there are essentially four types of VLF signals. The first type of signal is only observed in the 100 Hz channel and not in any of the higher frequency channels (730 Hz, 5.4 kHz or 30 kHz). Occurrence of these waves is controlled by the magnetic field with a weaker dependence on electron density. The occurrence of these waves is controlled by the magnetic field with a weaker dependence on electron density. The occurrence rate decreases with increasing altitude to a height of 600 km. For higher altitudes beyond 600 km the occurrence rate remains roughly constant. The statistics of these signals are what one would expect for whistler mode waves from a subionospheric source. The second type of signal is broadline wave activity appearing below 300 km in the low altitude ionosphere. These signals often occur in all four channels of the OEFD. These signals are also thought to come from a subionospheric source. The third type of signal appearing near the edge of the planetary optical shadow. They are probably ion acoustic waves generated by a current driven instability associated with plasma clouds in the wake. The fourth type of signal is a narrow band wave. It occurs in either of the two high frequency channels in the high altitude tail region, and is attributed to locally generated Langmuir waves. In addition, we also observe spacecraft interference noise in both the 100 and 730 Hz channels. These signals mainly occur near the edge of the planetary optical shadow and have an inbound and outbound asymmetry in activity.

Ho, C.-M.↗

Cloud cover typing from environmental satellite imagery. Discriminating cloud structure with Fast Fourier Transforms (FFT)

The use of two dimensional Fast Fourier Transforms (FFTs) subjected to pattern recognition technology for the identification and classification of low altitude stratus cloud structure from Geostationary Operational Environmental Satellite (GOES) imagery was examined. The development of a scene independent pattern recognition methodology, unconstrained by conventional cloud morphological classifications was emphasized. A technique for extracting cloud shape, direction, and size attributes from GOES visual imagery was developed. These attributes were combined with two statistical attributes (cloud mean brightness, cloud standard deviation), and interrogated using unsupervised clustering amd maximum likelihood classification techniques. Results indicate that: (1) the key cloud discrimination attributes are mean brightness, direction, shape, and minimum size; (2) cloud structure can be differentiated at given pixel scales; (3) cloud type may be identifiable at coarser scales; (4) there are positive indications of scene independence which would permit development of a cloud signature bank; (5) edge enhancement of GOES imagery does not appreciably improve cloud classification over the use of raw data; and (6) the GOES imagery must be apodized before generation of FFTs.

Logan, T. L.↗

Allowing for Horizontally Heterogeneous Clouds and Generalized Overlap in an Atmospheric GCM

While fully accounting for 3D effects in Global Climate Models (GCMs) appears not realistic at the present time for a variety of reasons such as computational cost and unavailability of 3D cloud structure in the models, incorporation in radiation schemes of subgrid cloud variability described by one-point statistics is now considered feasible and is being actively pursued. This development has gained momentum once it was demonstrated that CPU-intensive spectrally explicit Independent Column Approximation (lCA) can be substituted by stochastic Monte Carlo ICA (McICA) calculations where spectral integration is accomplished in a manner that produces relatively benign random noise. The McICA approach has been implemented in Goddard's GEOS-5 atmospheric GCM as part of the implementation of the RRTMG radiation package. GEOS-5 with McICA and RRTMG can handle horizontally variable clouds which can be set via a cloud generator to arbitrarily overlap within the full spectrum of maximum and random both in terms of cloud fraction and layer condensate distributions. In our presentation we will show radiative and other impacts of the combined horizontal and vertical cloud variability on multi-year simulations of an otherwise untuned GEOS-5 with fixed SSTs. Introducing cloud horizontal heterogeneity without changing the mean amounts of condensate reduces reflected solar and increases thermal radiation to space, but disproportionate changes may increase the radiative imbalance at TOA. The net radiation at TOA can be modulated by allowing the parameters of the generalized overlap and heterogeneity scheme to vary, a dependence whose behavior we will discuss. The sensitivity of the cloud radiative forcing to the parameters of cloud horizontal heterogeneity and comparisons of CERES-derived forcing will be shown.

Lee, D.↗

POLARRIS: A POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator

This paper introduces a synthetic polarimetric radar simulator and retrieval package, POLArimetric Radar Retrieval and Instrument Simulator (POLARRIS), for evaluating cloud‐resolving models (CRMs). POLARRIS is composed of forward (POLARRIS‐f) and inverse (retrieval and diagnostic) components (iPOLARRIS) to generate not only polarimetric radar observables (Zh, Zdr, Kdp, ρhv) but also radar‐consistent geophysical parameters such as hydrometeor identification, vertical velocity, and rainfall rates retrieved from CRM data. To demonstrate its application and uncertainties, POLARRIS is applied to simulations of a mesoscale convective system over the Southern Great Plains on 23 May 2011, using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with both spectral bin microphysics (SBM) and the Goddard single‐moment bulk 4ICE microphysics. Statistical composites reveal a significant dependence of simulated polarimetric observables (Zdr, Kdp) on the assumptions of the particle axis ratio (oblateness) and orientation angle distributions. The simulated polarimetric variables differ considerably between the SBM and 4ICE microphysics in part due to the differences in their ice particle size distributions as revealed by comparisons with aircraft measurements. Regardless of these uncertainties, simulated hydrometeor identification distributions overestimate graupel and hail fractions, especially from the simulation with SBM. To minimize uncertainties in forward model, the particle shape and orientation angle distributions of frozen particles should be predicted in a microphysics scheme in addition to the size distributions and particle densities.

Toshi Matsui↗

Scanning Backscatter Lidar Observations for Characterizing 4-D Cloud and Aerosol Fields to Improve Radiative Transfer Parameterizations

Clouds have a powerful influence on atmospheric radiative transfer and hence are crucial to understanding and interpreting the exchange of radiation between the Earth's surface, the atmosphere, and space. Because clouds are highly variable in space, time and physical makeup, it is important to be able to observe them in three dimensions (3-D) with sufficient resolution that the data can be used to generate and validate parameterizations of cloud fields at the resolution scale of global climate models (GCMs). Simulation of photon transport in three dimensionally inhomogeneous cloud fields show that spatial inhomogeneities tend to decrease cloud reflection and absorption and increase direct and diffuse transmission, Therefore it is an important task to characterize cloud spatial structures in three dimensions on the scale of GCM grid elements. In order to validate cloud parameterizations that represent the ensemble, or mean and variance of cloud properties within a GCM grid element, measurements of the parameters must be obtained on a much finer scale so that the statistics on those measurements are truly representative. High spatial sampling resolution is required, on the order of 1 km or less. Since the radiation fields respond almost instantaneously to changes in the cloud field, and clouds changes occur on scales of seconds and less when viewed on scales of approximately 100m, the temporal resolution of cloud properties should be measured and characterized on second time scales. GCM time steps are typically on the order of an hour, but in order to obtain sufficient statistical representations of cloud properties in the parameterizations that are used as model inputs, averaged values of cloud properties should be calculated on time scales on the order of 10-100 s. The Holographic Airborne Rotating Lidar Instrument Experiment (HARLIE) provides exceptional temporal (100 ms) and spatial (30 m) resolution measurements of aerosol and cloud backscatter in three dimensions. HARLIE was used in a ground-based configuration in several recent field campaigns. Principal data products include aerosol backscatter profiles, boundary layer heights, entrainment zone thickness, cloud fraction as a function of altitude and horizontal wind vector profiles based on correlating the motions of clouds and aerosol structures across portions of the scan. Comparisons will be made between various cloud detecting instruments to develop a baseline performance metric.

Schwemmer, Geary K.↗

ARM Research in the Equatorial Western Pacific: A Decade and Counting

The tropical western Pacific (TWP) is an important climatic region. Strong solar heating, warm sea surface temperatures, and the annual progression of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) across this region generate abundant convective systems, which through their effects on the heat and water budgets have a profound impact on global climate and precipitation. In order to accurately evaluate tropical cloud systems in models, measurements of tropical clouds, the environment in which they reside, and their impact on the radiation and water budgets are needed. Because of the remote location, ground-based datasets of cloud, atmosphere, and radiation properties from the TWP region have come primarily from short-term field experiments. While providing extremely useful information on physical processes, these short-term datasets are limited in statistical and climatological information. To provide longterm measurements of the surface radiation budget in the tropics and the atmospheric properties that affect it, the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement program established a measurement site on Manus Island, Papua New Guinea, in 1996 and on the island republic of Nauru in late 1998. These sites provide unique datasets now available for more than 10 years on Manus and Nauru. This article presents examples of the scientific use of these datasets including characterization of cloud properties, analysis of cloud radiative forcing, model studies of tropical clouds and processes, and validation of satellite algorithms. New instrumentation recently installed at the Manus site will provide expanded opportunities for tropical atmospheric science.

tropical regions↗

GLM Proxy Data Generation: Methods for Stroke/Pulse Level Inter-Comparison of Ground-Based Lightning Reference Networks

In order to produce useful proxy data for the GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) in regions not covered by VLF lightning mapping systems, we intend to employ data produced by ground-based (regional or global) VLF/LF lightning detection networks. Before using these data in GLM Risk Reduction tasks, it is necessary to have a quantitative understanding of the performance of these networks, in terms of CG flash/stroke DE, cloud flash/pulse DE, location accuracy, and CLD/CG classification error. This information is being obtained through inter-comparison with LMAs and well-quantified VLF/LF lightning networks. One of our approaches is to compare "bulk" counting statistics on the spatial scale of convective cells, in order to both quantify relative performance and observe variations in cell-based temporal trends provided by each network. In addition, we are using microsecond-level stroke/pulse time correlation to facilitate detailed inter-comparisons at a more-fundamental level. The current development status of our ground-based inter-comparison and evaluation tools will be presented, and performance metrics will be discussed through a comparison of Vaisala s Global Lightning Dataset (GLD360) with the NLDN at locations within and outside the U.S.

Cummins, Kenneth L.↗

Soil temperature investigations using satellite acquired thermal-infrared data in semi-arid regions

Thermal-infrared data from the Heat Capacity Mapping Mission satellite were used to map the spatial distribution of diurnal surface temperatures and to estimate mean annual soil temperatures (MAST) and annual surface temperature amplitudes (AMP) in semi-arid east central Utah. Diurnal data with minimal snow and cloud cover were selected for five dates throughout a yearly period and geometrically co-registered. Rubber-sheet stretching was aided by the WARP program which allowed preview of image transformations. Daytime maximum and nighttime minimum temperatures were averaged to generation average daily temperature (ADT) data set for each of the five dates. Five ADT values for each pixel were used to fit a sine curve describing the theoretical annual surface temperature response as defined by a solution of a one-dimensinal heat flow equation. Linearization of the equation produced estimates of MAST and AMP plus associated confidence statistics. MAST values were grouped into classes and displayed on a color video screen. Diurnal surface temperatures and MAST were primarily correlated with elevation.

Day, R. L.↗

The Prevalence of Precipitation from Polar Supercooled Clouds

Supercooled clouds substantially impact polar surface energy budgets but large-scale models often underestimate their occurrence, which motivates accurately establishing metrics of basic processes. An analysis of long-term measurements at Utqiaġvik, Alaska, and McMurdo Station, Antarctica, combines lidar-validated use of soundings to identify supercooled cloud layers and colocated ground-based profiling radar measurements to quantify cloud base precipitation. We find that more than 85 % (75 %) of sampled supercooled layers are precipitating over the Arctic (Antarctic) site, with more than 75 % (50 %) precipitating continuously to the surface. Such high frequencies can be reconciled with substantially lesser spaceborne estimates by considering differences in radar hydrometeor detection sensitivity. While ice precipitation into supercooled clouds from aloft is common, we also find that the great majority of supercooled cloud layers without ice falling into them are themselves continuously generating precipitation. Such sustained primary ice formation is consistent with continuous activation of immersion-mode ice nucleating particles (INPs), suggesting that supercooled cloud formation is a principal gateway to ice formation at temperatures greater than ~ −38 °C over polar regions. The prevalence of weak precipitation fluxes is also consistent with supercooled cloud longevity, and with well-observed and widely simulated case studies. An analysis of colocated microwave radiometer retrievals suggests that weak precipitation fluxes can be nonetheless consequential to moisture budgets for supercooled clouds owing to small liquid water paths. Finally, we suggest that these ground-based precipitation rate statistics offer valuable guidance for improving the representation of polar cloud processes in large-scale models.

Polar clouds↗