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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 73 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2018

A Statistical Study of Solar Particle Events in Flux and Dose

The high-energy protons from solar energetic particle (SEP) events present a hazard to space systems: damage to science instruments/electronics/materials or to astronauts. A reliable estimate of the high-energy proton environment is critical to assure mission success. Important characteristics of an SEP event are fluence, peak flux, energy spectrum, time to reach the peak flux, time to reach peak dose, and properties of the cumulative dose profile after an event starts. All of these characteristics are important to understand in order to design space missions properly for both robotic and human missions. Because of the unpredictable and sporadic nature of SEP events, statistical models are often used to represent the SEP parameters described above. In a study by Jun et al. (2007), the statistics of event fluences, durations, and time intervals between events were investigated using the then available historical SEP dataset obtained from the instruments onboard the IMP-8 spacecraft. Since then, a more comprehensive SEP dataset based off of IMP-8 and GOES called Reference Data Set Version 2.0 (RDSv2.0) has become available covering the SEP events up to Year 2015 under a framework of the European Space Agency's (ESA's) Solar Energetic Particle Environment Modelling (SEPEM) project (Jiggens et al., 2018). The main objectives of this statistical study of SEP events are two-fold: First, the statistics of peak fluxes, event fluences, durations, and time intervals will be re-visited by using RDSv2.0; Second, the statistical analyses of flux and dose timing will be performed using the same dataset RDSv2.0. The results of this study will address the statistical properties of all key parameters for designing a spacecraft or a human mission where the SEP environment is an important consideration.

Whitman, K.↗
NASA NTRS2019

Poisson vs. Gaussian statistics for sparse X-ray data: Application to the soft X-ray spectrometer

Reliable results when fitting X-ray data require proper consideration of the statistics involved. We probe the impact of Gaussian versus Poisson statistics at low count levels using both the standard χ^(2) method and maximum likelihood based on Poisson (C) statistics. The difference is studied and quantified through simulated spectra with known properties. We then test the results through analysis of Mn Kα calibration data taken with the flight spare microcalorimeter for the Hitomi soft X-ray spectrometer. Through comparison with simulations, our results show that the χ^(2) method tends to give overly optimistic estimates of the detector energy resolution, in particular when there are few counts. Given an energy resolution of ∼5 eV and a line with about 100 photons, the line width becomes ∼10% lower in the χ^(2) method than in Poisson statistics. This is a consequence of the uncertainties being dominated by counting statistics, and therefore highlights the need to choose the appropriate fit statistic.

Shinya Yamada↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Antarctic Meteorites: A Statistical Look at a Uniquely Valuable Resource

As of the 2019-20 field season, the U.S. Antarctic meteorite program has collected >23,000 meteorites. The U.S. collection is valuable in that it is classified in its entirety. The systematic collection methods employed have pro-vided meteorites of >40 types, many of which are the first of their type ever recognized. One of the early drivers for characterization of the entire U.S. Antarctic collection was to allow statistical comparisons. Early statistical assessments examined mass distributions and the relative frequency of meteorite types as well as comparisons to a defined set of modern falls. Using these statistics some have argued that the flux of H chondrites changed over time. Harvey used model size distributions to deconstruct the contribution of wind movement, meteorite supply and search losses to the Antarctic collection. Mass-based statistics and size distribution comparisons were examined, including comparison with modern falls/Saharan finds. Focus has been on geospatial statistics, with a comprehensive overview of the statistics of the Antarctic collections provided from the first 35 seasons of U.S. collection by ANSMET, as well as more recent assessments.

Antarctic meteorite↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Statistical Influence

Advancing the spread and practice of statistics enhances an organization’s ability to successfully achieve their mission. While there may be leadership mandates to employ statistical methods, often the spread of statistical concepts flourishes more effectively through the practice of statistical influence. At first glance, the term influence may seem to imply a passive and unenthusiastic posture toward promoting organizational change. However, a classical definition states that ,“In a general sense, influence denotes power whose operation is invisible and known only by its effects, or a power whose cause and operation are unseen.” This definition articulates the powerful and yet subtle aspects of influence that embodies the theme of this presentation. Stated plainly, powerful statistical concepts become more widely known and engrained primarily through demonstrated impact; a strategy known only by its effects. In this presentation, elements of statistical influence are exemplified through practice at NASA.

Peter A. Parker↗
DOE OSTI2023

Engineering Super–Poissonian Photon Statistics of Spatial Light Modes

The nature of light sources is defined by the statistical fluctuations of the electromagnetic field. As such, the photon statistics of light sources are typically associated with distinct emitters. Here, the possibility of producing light beams with various photon statistics through the spatial modulation of coherent light is demonstrated. This is achieved by the sequential encoding of controllable Kolmogorov phase screens in a digital micromirror device. Interestingly, the flexibility of this scheme allows for the shaping of spatial light modes with engineered photon statistics at different spatial positions. The performance of this scheme is assessed through the photon-number-resolving characterization of different families of spatial light modes with engineered photon statistics. Furthermore, it is believed that the possibility of controlling the photon fluctuations of the light field at arbitrary spatial locations has important implications for quantum spectroscopy, sensing, and imaging.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting U.S. federal fleet electric vehicle charging patterns using internal combustion engine vehicle fueling transaction statistics

Utilizing fueling transactions from internal combustion engine vehicles (ICEVs), the authors estimated how frequently midday public charging would be required for U.S. federal fleet battery electric vehicles (BEVs). Fueling transaction summary statistics are more widely available than trip-level telematics data, making this methodology more accessible and transferable to other researchers and fleet managers considering BEV replacements. For example, readers can easily apply a linear model using only the count of back-to-back fueling events at gas stations over 57 straight-line miles apart to predict days exceeding range. This linear regression predicted binned days exceeding 250 miles at 80% accuracy on a hold-out test set from the same fleet as the training data and 66 % accuracy on a new fleet displaying different driving behaviors. The authors additionally provide linear equations for days exceeding 200 and 300 miles as alternative range estimates to account for differences in BEV range and temperature impacts. Beyond the single-feature linear models which readers can apply, the authors tuned and trained other machine learning models on a variety of fueling transaction statistics including consecutive transaction distances, transaction distance from garage, estimated miles traveled from fuel economy and fuel quantity, and transaction periodicity. Utilizing a subset of 1678 light-duty federal fleet vehicles which contained daily vehicle miles traveled (VMT) in addition to fueling statistics, the authors determined which fueling transaction statistics were most relevant in predicting driving days exceeding 250 miles (an approximation of BEV rated driving range). In support of the U.S. federal fleet transition to zero-emission vehicles (ZEVs), the authors used these statistics and machine learning models to predict the frequency of BEV midday charging. After training models on the subset with VMT, the authors predicted days exceeding rated range for 112,902 light-duty vehicles operating in similar circumstances in the federal fleet using a Support Vector Regressor (SVR). In conclusion, they then used the projections as part of the ZEV Planning and Charging (ZPAC) tool to identify optimal candidates for BEVs for the federal fleet. An anonymized version of ZPAC is included in the supplementary materials.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2020

How “hot” are hotspots: Statistically localizing the high-activity areas on soil and rhizosphere images

The topic of microbial hotspots in soil requires not only visualizing their spatial distribution and biochemical analyses, but also statistical approaches to identify these hotspots and separate them from the surrounding activities (background). We hypothesized that each hotspot type (e.g. enzyme activities in the rhizosphere, root exudation, localization of herbicide accumulation) is a result of local process driven by biotic and/or abiotic factors, and the process rates in the hotspots are much faster than those in the soil background. We further hypothesized that the background and hotspot activities in soil belong to different statistical distributions. Consequently, hotspot determination should be based on statistical separation of activities significantly higher than the background. We analyzed for the statistical distributions of grey values on three groups of published images: 1) 14 C images of carbon input by roots into the rhizosphere, 2) 14 C glyphosate accumulation in the plant, and 3) zymogram of leucine aminopeptidase activity in rooted soil. The two Gaussian distributions were fit (the first representing the background, the second the hotspots) to the distribution of grey values in the images, the parameters (means and standard deviations, SD) of the fitted distributions were calculated, and the background was removed. Thus, we identified hotspots as areas outside of the Mean+2SD image intensity (corresponding to the upper ~ 2.5% of activity, being over 97.5% of background values) and finally, visualized images of solely hotspot locations. Finally, these results were compared with previously used decisions on hotspot intensity thresholding (i.e. Top-25% and 17 standard thresholding approaches in ImageJ) and discussed the advantages of the Mean+2SD as well as Mean+3SD approaches. These advantages include: i) simple unification of the thresholding approach for several imaging methods with various principles of activity distribution, ii) identification of hotspots with various activity levels, iii) analysis of “time-specific” hotspots in temporal sequences of images. Compared with 17 standard thresholding methods, we concluded that objectively elucidating and separating the hotspots should be based on statistical distribution analysis, e.g. using the Mean+2SD or Mean+3SD approaches. Furthermore, this simple Mean+2SD approach delivered suitable results for three groups of images and so, helps to understand the processes responsible for the highest activities and elucidate hotspots.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Statistical Downscaling of Climate Models for Solar Resource Assessment

This study presents the development of statistical models to efficiently downscale future projections of solar irradiance for solar energy applications. A climate data set simulated from a Regional Climate Model (RCM) obtained from the North American Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (NA-CORDEX) is selected as input to the statistical models to create high-resolution global horizontal irradiance (GHI) over the contiguous United States (CONUS). Our approach builds statistical downscaling models that (1) regrid RCM data (0.22 degree and daily spatiotemporal resolution), (2) correct bias of GHI projections, (3) downscale the future GHI project from daily-scale to hourly-scale, and (4) spatially downscale to generate GHI at 8-km resolution. To calibrate and validate the statistical models, we adapt and use the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB). Preliminary results show that the statistical downscaling approach downscales future projections of GHI under two climate scenarios (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) with a nBIAS of 3%, nMAE of 34% and nRMSE of 46% estimated against NSRDB for the contiguous United State. This presentation will summarize the implemented methodology and validation results as well as future extension of this research.

climate data↗
DOE OSTI2022

First-passage time statistics on surfaces of general shape: Surface PDE solvers using Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS)

Here, we develop numerical methods for computing statistics of stochastic processes on surfaces of general shape with drift-diffusion dynamics d X t = a (X t ) dt + b(X t ) d W t . We formulate descriptions of Brownian motion and general drift-diffusion processes on surfaces. We consider statistics of the form u (x) = E x [$∫^{τ}_{0}$ g (X t ) dt ] + E x [ f (X τ )] for a domain Ω and the exit stopping time τ = inf t { t >0 | X i Ω}, where f , g are general smooth functions. For computing these statistics, we develop high-order Generalized Moving Least Squares (GMLS) solvers for associated surface PDE boundary-value problems based on Backward- Kolmogorov equations. We focus particularly on the mean First Passage Times (FPTs) given by the case f = 0, g = 1 where u (x) = E x [τ]. We perform studies for a variety of shapes showing our methods converge with high-order accuracy both in capturing the geometry and the surface PDE solutions. We then perform studies showing how statistics are influenced by the surface geometry, drift dynamics, and spatially dependent diffusivities.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Report on the AAPM grand challenge on deep generative modeling for learning medical image statistics

Abstract Background The findings of the 2023 AAPM Grand Challenge on Deep Generative Modeling for Learning Medical Image Statistics are reported in this Special Report. Purpose The goal of this challenge was to promote the development of deep generative models for medical imaging and to emphasize the need for their domain‐relevant assessments via the analysis of relevant image statistics. Methods As part of this Grand Challenge, a common training dataset and an evaluation procedure was developed for benchmarking deep generative models for medical image synthesis. To create the training dataset, an established 3D virtual breast phantom was adapted. The resulting dataset comprised about 108 000 images of size 512 512. For the evaluation of submissions to the Challenge, an ensemble of 10 000 DGM‐generated images from each submission was employed. The evaluation procedure consisted of two stages. In the first stage, a preliminary check for memorization and image quality (via the Fréchet Inception Distance [FID]) was performed. Submissions that passed the first stage were then evaluated for the reproducibility of image statistics corresponding to several feature families including texture, morphology, image moments, fractal statistics, and skeleton statistics. A summary measure in this feature space was employed to rank the submissions. Additional analyses of submissions was performed to assess DGM performance specific to individual feature families, the four classes in the training data, and also to identify various artifacts. Results Fifty‐eight submissions from 12 unique users were received for this Challenge. Out of these 12 submissions, 9 submissions passed the first stage of evaluation and were eligible for ranking. The top‐ranked submission employed a conditional latent diffusion model, whereas the joint runners‐up employed a generative adversarial network, followed by another network for image superresolution. In general, we observed that the overall ranking of the top 9 submissions according to our evaluation method (i) did not match the FID‐based ranking, and (ii) differed with respect to individual feature families. Another important finding from our additional analyses was that different DGMs demonstrated similar kinds of artifacts. Conclusions This Grand Challenge highlighted the need for domain‐specific evaluation to further DGM design as well as deployment. It also demonstrated that the specification of a DGM may differ depending on its intended use.

Radiology, Nuclear Medicine & Medical Imaging↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗
DOE OSTI2021

Computational assessment of smooth and rough parameter dependence of statistics in chaotic dynamical systems

An assumption of smooth response to small parameter changes, of statistics or long-time averages of a chaotic system, is generally made in the field of sensitivity analysis, and the parametric derivatives of statistical quantities are critically used in science and engineering. In this paper, we propose a numerical procedure to assess the differentiability of statistics with respect to parameters in chaotic systems. Here, we numerically show that the existence of the derivative depends on the Lebesgue integrability of a certain density gradient function, which we define as the derivative of logarithmic SRB density along the unstable manifold. We develop a recursive formula for the density gradient that can be efficiently computed along trajectories, and demonstrate its use in determining the differentiability of statistics. Our numerical procedure is illustrated on low-dimensional chaotic systems whose statistics exhibit both smooth and rough regions in parameter space.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Efficient high-fidelity TRISO statistical failure analysis using Bison: Applications to AGR-2 irradiation testing

The ability of tri-structural isotropic (TRISO) fuel to contain fission products is largely dictated by the quality of the manufacturing process, since most of the fission product release is expected to occur due to coating layer failure in a small number of particles containing defects. The Bison fuel performance code has capabilities to predict failure in individual particles, accounting for the presence of defects, and to apply statistical analysis methods to compute the probability of failure in a set of fuel particles. Bison has recently undergone significant development both to improve its physical representations of fuel particle behavior and to improve the efficiency of its statistical failure calculations. Physical model improvements include new capabilities to account for the pressure generated by fission gases on inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC) crack surfaces and to use local material coordinate orientation to accurately incorporate the anisotropy in the material properties in aspherical particles. To improve statistical modeling efficiency, a direct integration approach which involves directly integrating the failure probability function associated with statistically varying parameters has been developed. The direct integration approach is much more efficient than the Monte Carlo (MC) schemes commonly employed, and allows Bison to directly run high-dimensional fuel performance models, which improves the accuracy of failure probability calculations. Finally, a set of benchmark problems is considered here to compare the MC and direct integration approaches, and a statistical failure analysis of compacts in the Advanced Gas Reactor (AGR)-2 experiments is performed using the direct integration approach.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Accelerated statistical failure analysis of multifidelity TRISO fuel models

Statistical nuclear fuel failure analysis is critical for the design and development of advanced reactor technologies. Although Monte Carlo Sampling (MCS) is a standard method of statistical failure analysis for fuels, the low failure probabilities of some advanced fuel forms and the correspondingly large number of required model evaluations limit its application to low-fidelity (e.g., 1-D) fuel models. In this paper, we present four other statistical methods for fuel failure analysis in Bison, considering tri-structural isotropic (TRISO)-coated particle fuel as a case study. The statistical methods considered are Latin hypercube sampling (LHS), adaptive importance sampling (AIS), subset simulation (SS), and the Weibull theory. Using these methods, we analyzed both 1-D and 2-D representations of TRISO models to compute failure probabilities and the distributions of fuel properties that result in failures. The results of these methods compare well across all TRISO models considered. Overall, SS and the Weibull theory were deemed the most efficient, and can be applied to both 1-D and 2-D TRISO models to compute failure probabilities. Moreover, since SS also characterizes the distribution of parameters that cause TRISO failures, and can consider failure modes not described by the Weibull criterion, it may be preferred over the other methods. Finally, a discussion on the efficacy of different statistical methods of assessing nuclear fuel safety is provided.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Spatiotemporal and Statistical Mapping of Transition Metal Equilibria in Alkaline Media

Transition metal dissolution and redeposition (D/R) kinetics in alkaline media play a critical role in various chemical and electrochemical processes. Competitive reaction kinetics between different transition metals can modulate individual metal behavior in these processes. To date, these phenomena have remained largely unmeasured, and even when captured, they are difficult to statistically characterize due to their dynamic nature, simultaneous occurrence, and spatially heterogeneous nature. Here, in this study, we develop a statistical analysis framework based on in situ and operando X-ray fluorescence microscopy (XFM) to investigate the relative D/R kinetics of multiple transition metals in alkaline media. By employing statistical analysis, we quantify the spatial distribution of D/R species and assess the rate at which the system reaches equilibrium under varying reaction conditions. We show that pH does not simply change the rate of dissolution and redeposition, but reorganizes the cross-element kinetic correlations among Ni, Fe, and Mn and accelerates the spatial equilibration of D/R events, as quantified through correlation analysis, reaction-rate estimation, probability function distributions, and texture-based monitoring statistics. Additionally, we demonstrate how modifying the solvent environment can influence D/R kinetics, providing a pathway for tuning materials synthesis and process optimization. Our study offers valuable insights into the complex interplay between different transition metals and provides a reliable statistical framework for spatial analysis of diverse imaging data sets, enabling deeper extraction of latent information across multiple modalities.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2024

Alternating Conditional Expectations: Introducing a Non‐Parametric Statistical Method to Interpret Long‐Term Greenhouse Gas Flux Measurements Over Semi‐Arid and Wetland Ecosystems

Abstract We explore the potential of using a non‐parametric statistical method called Alternating Conditional Expectations, ACE, to quantify functional relationships in biogeosciences. Here, ACE is used to quantify the non‐linear and multi‐faceted responses of greenhouse gas fluxes to a set of biophysical forcings, when the shapes of those response surfaces are unknown. We evaluated the statistical method over two contrasting ecosystems and two contrasting time steps. One case involved quantifying the biophysical controls of water vapor and carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) fluxes over a semi‐arid oak savanna using daily integrated fluxes. The other case evaluated the responses of CO 2 and methane (CH 4 ) flux measurements to a set of biophysical forcings at a restored tidal wetland using thirty‐minute averages. The statistical model, based on 4 independent variables, explained up over 90% of the variation in daily integrated flux densities of water vapor and net carbon dioxide exchange at the savanna site. This fit was defined by distinct non‐linear responses to such drivers as gross primary production, photosynthetically active radiation, air temperature, vapor pressure deficit and soil moisture. At the tidal wetland site, we evaluated net carbon dioxide and methane fluxes with short‐term measurements to capture the influence of rising and falling tides and seasonality in biological activity. The statistical model defined the shape of the forcing of fluxes due to the roles of carbon exudates, water table depth, oxygen level in the water column, temperature and vegetation status. The statistical fits of the greenhouse gas fluxes were less precise than the savanna case. The fetch varies on a run‐to‐run basis as it is comprised of a heterogeneous mosaic of open water and vegetation. Furthermore, it is difficult to monitor the environmental conditions of the archaea and bacteria in the sediments that produce methane and carbon dioxide.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantum statistical plasmonic metacrystals

Engineering materials that control quantum many-body dynamics remains challenging, as multiparticle interactions typically produce complex emergent behaviour that is difficult to predict. Here we introduce quantum statistical plasmonic metacrystals, structures in which the multiparticle dynamics mediated by optical near fields produce forbidden quantum statistical bands that enable selective transmission of different types of light. This functionality arises from a plasmonic structure composed of nanoantennas acting as meta-atoms. Multiphoton fields with statistics within the allowed bands propagate without distortion, whereas fields in forbidden bands are suppressed or driven towards the nearest accessible statistical state. We show that these bands are determined by the geometry and collective arrangement of the meta-atoms, providing a deterministic route to engineering quantum statistical transport. This platform establishes a room-temperature quantum material intrinsically sensitive to the quantum coherence of many-body photonic systems, enabling their robust manipulation and transport. Our results have implications for coherence-sensitive photonic materials for energy harvesting and scalable many-body quantum technologies.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2023

Detection of the significant impact of source clustering on higher order statistics with DES Year 3 weak gravitational lensing data

We measure the impact of source galaxy clustering on higher order summary statistics of weak gravitational lensing data. By comparing simulated data with galaxies that either trace or do not trace the underlying density field, we show that this effect can exceed measurement uncertainties for common higher order statistics for certain analysis choices. We evaluate the impact on different weak lensing observables, finding that third moments and wavelet phase harmonics are more affected than peak count statistics. Using Dark Energy Survey (DES) Year 3 (Y3) data, we construct null tests for the source-clustering-free case, finding a p-value of p = 4 × 10 −3 (2.6σ) using third-order map moments and p = 3 × 10 −11 (6.5σ) using wavelet phase harmonics. The impact of source clustering on cosmological inference can be either included in the model or minimized through ad hoc procedures (e.g. scale cuts). We verify that the procedures adopted in existing DES Y3 cosmological analyses were sufficient to render this effect negligible. Failing to account for source clustering can significantly impact cosmological inference from higher order gravitational lensing statistics, e.g. higher order N-point functions, wavelet-moment observables, and deep learning or field-level summary statistics of weak lensing maps.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗