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At least 73 records · Page 4

The effects of correlation on goodness of fit

Autocorrelated normal random variates were generated via computer and the effects of various levels of correlation on goodness of fit problems were studied. The results are useful in determining the distribution or estimating the parameters of populations that correlate observations such as wind speeds and temperature. The model used to generate the autocorrelated data is an autoregressive process of order 1. The Kolmogorov-Smirnov and chi-square statistics are used in the analysis. It was observed in the simulation that high positive correlations tend to shift the sample mean away from the population mean and negative correlations tend to shift the sample mean towards the population mean. In many cases, it was observed that positive and negative correlations tend to decrease the standard deviation. However, since this did not occur in all cases, no definite conclusion can be made regarding the standard deviation. Since the autoregressive process is a linear transformation, it is not surprising that normality was preserved. However, a possible extension of this problem could be to generate non-normal data and observe how the distribution is affected by correlation. Another extension might utilize another model such as autoregressive of order k or a moving average process of order k.

Kitchens, L. J.↗

Disruption event characterization and forecasting in tokamaks

Disruption prediction and avoidance is a critical need for next-step tokamaks, such as ITER. Disruption Event Characterization and Forecasting (DECAF) research fully automates analysis of tokamak data to determine chains of events that lead to disruptions and to forecast their evolution allowing sufficient time for mitigation or complete avoidance of the disruption. Disruption event chains related to local rotating or global magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) modes and vertical instability are examined with warnings issued for many off-normal physics events, including density limits, plasma dynamics, confinement transitions, and profile variations. Along with Greenwald density limit evaluation, a local radiative island power balance theory is evaluated and compared to the observation of island growth. Automated decomposition and analysis of rotating tearing modes produce physical event chains leading to disruptions. A total MHD state warning model comprised of 15 separate criteria produces a disruption forecast about 180 ms before a standard locked mode detector warning. Single DECAF event analyses have begun on KSTAR, MAST, and NSTX/-U databases with thousands of shot seconds of device operation using from 0.5 to 1 × 10 6 tested sample times per device. An initial multi-device database comparison illustrates a highly important result that plasma disruptivity does not need to increase as βN increases. Global MHD instabilities, such as resistive wall modes (RWMs), can give the briefest time period of warning before disruption compared to other physics events. In an NSTX database with unstable RWMs, the mode onset, loss of boundary and current control, and disruption event warnings are found in all cases and vertical displacement events are found in 91% of cases. An initial time-dependent reduced physics model of kinetic RWM stabilization created to forecast the disruption chain predicts instability 84% of the time for experimentally unstable cases with a relatively low false positive rate. Instances of the disruption event chain analysis illustrate dynamics including H–L back transitions for rotating MHD and global RWM triggering events. Furthermore, disruption warnings are issued with sufficient time before the disruption (on transport timescales) to potentially allow active profile control for disruption avoidance, active mode control, or mitigation.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

Characterization of Operational Performance of Ka-Band Links in Deep Space Network

This paper presents a characterization of performance of 32-GHz Ka-band link in an operational environment. The data come from tracking of Kepler spacecraft by the NASA Deep Space Network (DSN) in the past few years. Ka-band link offers a significant signal-to-noise advantage compared to the more common X- or S-band; however, it is subject to more signal fluctuation caused by the weather. Kepler is the first mission supported by the DSN that solely rely on the higher deep space Ka-band communications link to return its high-rate science data. A well characterization of the operational performance of Kepler would benefit future Ka-band missions, especially for those operating with smaller link margin. The study examines how weather conditions at the DSN facilities (e.g., winds, clouds, rains) affect the received signal, particularly on telemetry data. It addresses questions such as how often the weather affects the link and how much degradation the link could suffer. Among the 22 Ka-band passes in 2012, heavy clouds affected one pass and two passes were impacted by high winds. The adverse weather caused at time as much as 3-dB instantaneous change in the signal to noise ratio (SNR). Estimates of degradation to the SNR as a function of wind speeds are captured based on observations. This study also quantifies the probability distribution of the variation of received signal power. With such information, future missions can better plan their link design. An optimal link design aims for just having enough margin to realize the data return with a targeted probability, with neither having too much margin that it reduces the downlink data rate nor insufficient reserve that causes frequent data outages. The study tries to provide some answers to the questions such as how much does SNR vary from one tracking pass to the next, and what is the cumulative distribution of signal fluctuation. Regarding the signal variation over many tracking passes, we found that the averaged symbol SNR (SSNR) for each pass changed by as much as 4 dB. Some variations were due to geometry such as the changing distance between spacecraft and Earth and different antenna pointing elevations. Other variations seem to be random in nature, reflecting the randomness of operational environments. Some passes were found to be quite stable, with a standard deviation of symbol SNR around 0.25 dB while others had greater variation, up to 1.4 dB. Overall, the cumulative distribution of the symbol SNR reflects that 50% of the fluctuations was less than 0.6 dB, 90% of fluctuation was within 1.6 dB and 95% within 2.2 dB. Some of the challenges in data processing, validation and modeling were captured in this paper. We observed some inconsistent measurements where operational data significantly deviate from a normal expectation. These inconsistent measurements made it hard to develop an accurate and consistent performance model, such as the degradation of signal SNR as a function of high wind. The difficulty was compounded by the fact that there were only a few Ka-band passes observed in high winds.

Pham, Timothy↗

Airborne measurements of laser backscatter from the ocean surface

The data are taken with three different pulsed laser sources, one each in the ultraviolet (337.1 nm), visible (532.1 nm) and infrared (9.5 microns). The principal instrument is the airborne oceanographic lidar of the NASA Wallops Flight Facility. The data on mean laser backscatter and its variation with angle off nadir are found to be consistent with previous analytical work and some previous experimental work. The absolute calibration of this backscatter in terms of an effective Lambertian reflectance is less precise, but the data support values near nadir of approximately 0.20 for low wind speeds. It is noted that these values are 1 order of magnitude larger than the Fresnel reflectance for an air/water discontinuity in the refractive index. Whereas the normalized standard deviation (modulation factor) of backscatter is less well understood analytically, it is defined by these measurements to range from a few percent to over 50 percent at nadir and to increase off nadir as the tangent of theta or faster. The data are uncertain beyond 15 deg off nadir owing to a dynamic range limitation.

Bufton, J. L.↗

Assessment of variations in thermal cycle life data of thermal barrier coated rods

An analysis of thermal cycle life data for 22 thermal barrier coated (TBC) specimens was conducted. The Zr02-8Y203/NiCrAlY plasma spray coated Rene 41 rods were tested in a Mach 0.3 Jet A/air burner flame. All specimens were subjected to the same coating and subsequent test procedures in an effort to control three parametric groups; material properties, geometry and heat flux. Statistically, the data sample space had a mean of 1330 cycles with a standard deviation of 520 cycles. The data were described by normal or log-normal distributions, but other models could also apply; the sample size must be increased to clearly delineate a statistical failure model. The statistical methods were also applied to adhesive/cohesive strength data for 20 TBC discs of the same composition, with similar results. The sample space had a mean of 9 MPa with a standard deviation of 4.2 MPa.

Hendricks, R. C.↗

Hologic QDR 2000 whole-body scans: a comparison of three combinations of scan modes and analysis software

This study reports on the short-term in vivo precision and absolute measurements of three combinations of whole-body scan modes and analysis software using a Hologic QDR 2000 dual-energy X-ray densitometer. A group of 21 normal, healthy volunteers (11 male and 10 female) were scanned six times, receiving one pencil-beam and one array whole-body scan on three occasions approximately 1 week apart. The following combinations of scan modes and analysis software were used: pencil-beam scans analyzed with Hologic's standard whole-body software (PB scans); the same pencil-beam analyzed with Hologic's newer "enhanced" software (EPB scans); and array scans analyzed with the enhanced software (EA scans). Precision values (% coefficient of variation, %CV) were calculated for whole-body and regional bone mineral content (BMC), bone mineral density (BMD), fat mass, lean mass, %fat and total mass. In general, there was no significant difference among the three scan types with respect to short-term precision of BMD and only slight differences in the precision of BMC. Precision of BMC and BMD for all three scan types was excellent: < 1% CV for whole-body values, with most regional values in the 1%-2% range. Pencil-beam scans demonstrated significantly better soft tissue precision than did array scans. Precision errors for whole-body lean mass were: 0.9% (PB), 1.1% (EPB) and 1.9% (EA). Precision errors for whole-body fat mass were: 1.7% (PB), 2.4% (EPB) and 5.6% (EA). EPB precision errors were slightly higher than PB precision errors for lean, fat and %fat measurements of all regions except the head, although these differences were significant only for the fat and % fat of the arms and legs. In addition EPB precision values exhibited greater individual variability than PB precision values. Finally, absolute values of bone and soft tissue were compared among the three combinations of scan and analysis modes. BMC, BMD, fat mass, %fat and lean mass were significantly different between PB scans and either of the EPB or EA scans. Differences were as large as 20%-25% for certain regional fat and BMD measurements. Additional work may be needed to examine the relative accuracy of the scan mode/software combinations and to identify reasons for the differences in soft tissue precision with the array whole-body scan mode.

NASA Discipline Musculoskeletal↗

Variation of lead isotopic composition and atomic weight in terrestrial materials (IUPAC Technical Report)

The isotopic composition and atomic weight of lead are variable in terrestrial materials because its three heaviest stable isotopes are stable end-products of the radioactive decay of uranium ( 238 U to 206 Pb; 235 U to 207 Pb) and thorium ( 232 Th to 208 Pb). The lightest stable isotope, 204 Pb, is primordial. These variations in isotope ratios and atomic weights provide useful information in many areas of science, including geochronology, archaeology, environmental studies, and forensic science. While elemental lead can serve as an abundant and homogeneous isotopic reference, deviations from the isotope ratios in other lead occurrences limit the accuracy with which a standard atomic weight can be given for lead. In a comprehensive review of several hundred publications and analyses of more than 8000 samples, published isotope data indicate that the lowest reported lead atomic weight of a normal terrestrial materials is 206.1462 ± 0.0028 (k = 2), determined for a growth of the phosphate mineral monazite around a garnet relic from an Archean high-grade metamorphic terrain in north-western Scotland, which contains mostly 206 Pb and almost no 204 Pb. The highest published lead atomic weight is 207.9351 ± 0.0005 (k = 2) for monazite from a micro-inclusion in a garnet relic, also from a high-grade metamorphic terrain in north-western Scotland, which contains almost pure radiogenic 208 Pb. When expressed as an interval, the lead atomic weight is [206.14, 207.94]. It is proposed that a value of 207.2 be adopted for the single lead atomic-weight value for education, commerce, and industry, corresponding to previously published conventional atomic-weight values.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Rarefied aerodynamics and upper atmosphere density from multiple orbiter flight measurements

Flight data from six flights of the experimental High Resolution Accelerometer Package (HIRAP), a micro-g accelerometer system, have been analyzed to produce rarefied flow aerodynamic coefficients of the Orbiter and freestream density in the altitude range from 60 km to 160 km. The direct measurements of the lift to drag ratio (L/D) are used to obtain individual normalized body-axis force coefficients in a least-squares regression scheme. An aerodynamics model based on an exponential function of Knudsen number is used for the individual coefficients. The calculated L/D from the flight determined coefficients agree with the multiple flight data measurements to within about 5 percent. Simultaneously, an upper altitude density variation is also obtained from the data. Density altitude profiles exhibit a wave feature on all flights. The wave has an amplitude of about + or - 25 percent relative to the 1962 Standard atmosphere model.

Buck, G. M.↗

Reductions in Productivity Due to Land Degradation in the Drylands of the Southwestern United States

Dryland degradation has long been recognized at regional, national, and global scales, yet there are no objective assessments of its location and severity. An assessment of reductions in net primary production (NPP) due to dryland degradation in the southwestern United States is reported. The local NPP scaling (LNS) approach was applied to map the extent and magnitude of degradation. LNS seeks to identify reference sites in which there is no degradation that can be used as a standard for comparison with other sites that share the same environment, except for degradation. Twelve years were analyzed (2000–2011), using Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) data (250 m) from the Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) satellite‐borne multispectral sensor. The results indicated that the total NPP reductions in the study area were about 35.9 ± 4.7 Tg C/yr, which equates to 0.31 ± 0.04 Mg C/ha·y. The NPP reductions in grassland‐savanna and livestock grazing areas were large and mostly consistent between years in spite of large variations in overall NPP caused by differences in land‐use, interannual variations in rainfall, and other aspects of weather. In comparison with other cover types, forested land generally had higher NPP reduction per unit area. The maps also enable attribution of degradation from the finest management units to entire agencies, such as the Bureau of Land Management, which had 50% less production per unit area than the U.S. Forest Service. The degradation within Native American land was low with total NPP reduction of about 2.41 ± 0.24 Tg C/yr and unit area reduction of productivity of just 0.21 ± 0.02 Mg C/ha·yr, yet the percent reduction from potential was in equivalence with other land management agencies.

Noojipady, Praveen↗

An Assessment of Five Modeling Approaches for Thermo-Mechanical Stress Analysis of Laminated Composite Panels

A study is made of the effects of variation in the lamination and geometric parameters, and boundary conditions of multi-layered composite panels on the accuracy of the detailed response characteristics obtained by five different modeling approaches. The modeling approaches considered include four two-dimensional models, each with five parameters to characterize the deformation in the thickness direction, and a predictor-corrector approach with twelve displacement parameters. The two-dimensional models are first-order shear deformation theory, third-order theory; a theory based on trigonometric variation of the transverse shear stresses through the thickness, and a discrete layer theory. The combination of the following four key elements distinguishes the present study from previous studies reported in the literature: (1) the standard of comparison is taken to be the solutions obtained by using three-dimensional continuum models for each of the individual layers; (2) both mechanical and thermal loadings are considered; (3) boundary conditions other than simply supported edges are considered; and (4) quantities compared include detailed through-the-thickness distributions of transverse shear and transverse normal stresses. Based on the numerical studies conducted, the predictor-corrector approach appears to be the most effective technique for obtaining accurate transverse stresses, and for thermal loading, none of the two-dimensional models is adequate for calculating transverse normal stresses, even when used in conjunction with three-dimensional equilibrium equations.

Noor, A. K.↗

Quadruple Lap Shear Processing Evaluation

The Thiokol, Science and Engineering Huntsville Operations (SEHO) Laboratory has previously experienced significant levels of variation in testing Quadruple Lap Shear (QLS) specimens. The QLS test is used at Thiokol / Utah for the qualification of Reusable Solid Rocket Motor (RSRM) nozzle flex bearing materials. A test was conducted to verify that process changes instituted by SEHO personnel effectively reduced variability, even with normal processing variables introduced. A test matrix was designed to progress in a series of steps; the first establishing a baseline, then introducing additional solvents or other variables. Variables included normal test plan delay times, pre-bond solvent hand-wipes and contaminants. Each condition tested utilized standard QLS hardware bonded with natural rubber, two separate technicians and three replicates. This paper will report the results and conclusions of this investigation.

Thornton, Tony N.↗

Rolling Bearing Life Prediction-Past, Present, and Future

Comparisons were made between the life prediction formulas of Lundberg and Palmgren, Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky and full-scale ball and roller bearing life data. The effect of Weibull slope on bearing life prediction was determined. Life factors are proposed to adjust the respective life formulas to the normalized statistical life distribution of each bearing type. The Lundberg-Palmgren method resulted in the most conservative life predictions compared to Ioannides and Harris, and Zaretsky methods which produced statistically similar results. Roller profile can have significant effects on bearing life prediction results. Roller edge loading can reduce life by as much as 98 percent. The resultant predicted life not only depends on the life equation used but on the Weibull slope assumed, the least variation occurring with the Zaretsky equation. The load-life exponent p of 10/3 used in the American National Standards Institute (ANSI)/American Bearing Manufacturers Association (ABMA)/International Organization for Standardization (ISO) standards is inconsistent with the majority roller bearings designed and used today.

Zaretsky, E V↗

A Comparison Study of Normal-Incidence Acoustic Impedance Measurements of a Perforate Liner

The eduction of the acoustic impedance for liner configurations is fundamental to the reduction of noise from modern jet engines. Ultimately, this property must be measured accurately for use in analytical and numerical propagation models of aircraft engine noise. Thus any standardized measurement techniques must be validated by providing reliable and consistent results for different facilities and sample sizes. This paper compares normal-incidence acoustic impedance measurements using the two-microphone method of ten nominally identical individual liner samples from two facilities, namely 50.8 mm and 25.4 mm square waveguides at NASA Langley Research Center and the University of Florida, respectively. The liner chosen for this investigation is a simple single-degree-of-freedom perforate liner with resonance and anti-resonance frequencies near 1.1 kHz and 2.2 kHz, respectively. The results show that the ten measurements have the most variation around the anti-resonance frequency, where statistically significant differences exist between the averaged results from the two facilities. However, the sample-to-sample variation is comparable in magnitude to the predicted cross-sectional area-dependent cavity dissipation differences between facilities, providing evidence that the size of the present samples does not significantly influence the results away from anti-resonance.

Schultz, Todd↗

Lagrangian and Eulerian drag models that are consistent between Euler-Lagrange and Euler-Euler (two-fluid) approaches for homogeneous systems

The undisturbed flow of a particle is of fundamental importance since it controls both the undisturbed flow force and the perturbation force (which includes quasisteady, added-mass, and history forces). Here we use the pairwise interaction extended point particle framework to evaluate the undisturbed flow of each particle through superposition of the perturbation flow induced by all its neighbors. This approach allows calculation of various statistics related to undisturbed fluid velocity under conditions of both stationary and nonstationary particles. In a random distribution of stationary particles, while the macroscale undisturbed flow is slowly varying, the microscale undisturbed flow that arises due to the perturbation flow of neighbors varies substantially from one particle to another and this in turn leads to large variation in the hydrodynamic force exerted on the particles. The effect of particle motion is generally to increase the particle-to-particle variation in the undisturbed fluid velocity of the particles. We observe that this increase is greater for the transverse component than for the streamwise component. As a result, with increasing random particle motion, the distribution of undisturbed fluid-velocity fluctuation becomes isotropic. Three different normalized forces are defined: $Φ^L$ is the Lagrangian normalized force on an individual particle suitable for application in a microscale-informed Euler-Lagrange simulation, $Φ^E$ is the Eulerian normalized average force suitable for application in an Euler-Euler simulation, and $Φ^{LE}$ is the Lagrangian normalized force on an individual particle suitable for application in the standard Euler-Lagrange simulation. In this work, we establish precise relations between these different definitions. The drag laws developed based on particle-resolved direct numerical simulation results and experiments are appropriate for application only as the Eulerian normalized average force. We introduce the force consistency relation and use it to obtain an expression for $Φ^L$, which when applied to each particle and averaged over all the particles equals $Φ^E$. The results are first obtained in the limit of stationary particles and then extended to the general case of nonstationary particles.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Mixing noise reduction for rectangular supersonic jets by nozzle shaping and induced screech mixing

Two methods of mixing noise modification were studied for supersonic jets flowing from rectangular nozzles with an aspect ratio of about five and a small dimension of about 1.4 cm. The first involves nozzle geometry variation using either single (unsymmetrical) or double bevelled (symmetrical) thirty degree cutbacks of the nozzle exit. Both converging (C) and converging-diverging (C-D) versions were tested. The double bevelled C-D nozzle produced a jet mixing noise reduction of about 4 dB compared to a standard rectangular C-D nozzle. In addition all bevelled nozzles produced an upstream shift in peak mixing noise which is conducive to improved attenuation when the nozzle is used in an acoustically treated duct. A large increase in high frequency noise also occurred near the plane of the nozzle exit. Because of near normal incidence, this noise can be easily attenuated with wall treatment. The second approach uses paddles inserted on the edge of the two sides of the jet to induce screech and greatly enhance the jet mixing. Although screech and mixing noise levels are increased, the enhanced mixing moves the source locations upstream and may make an enclosed system more amenable to noise reduction using wall acoustic treatment.

Rice, Edward J.↗

Analysis of communication in the standard versus automated aircraft

Past research has shown crew communication patterns to be associated with overall crew performance, recent flight experience together, low-and high-error crew performance and personality variables. However, differences in communication patterns as a function of aircraft type and level of aircraft automation have not been fully addressed. Crew communications from ten MD-88 and twelve DC-9 crews were obtained during a full-mission simulation. In addition to large differences in overall amount of communication during the normal and abnormal phases of flight (DC-9 crews generating less speech than MD-88 crews), differences in specific speech categories were also found. Log-linear analyses also generated speaker-response patterns related to each aircraft type, although in future analyses these patterns will need to account for variations due to crew performance.

Veinott, Elizabeth S.↗

The ISO View of Star Forming Galaxies

ISO studies of normal galaxies in the local Universe have revealed basic new properties whose significant implications for the star formation process and cosmology are only starting to be understood. This review will touch on the general results of a statistical nature, and provide a quick summary of the profusion of exciting results on individual objects. In the mid-infrared, PHT-S has established that the spectra of star forming galaxies between 6 and-13microns are dominated by the Aromatic Features in Emission (AFE), and show little variation as a function of the heating intensity. The Carriers of the AFE (CAFE) are thus a universal component of dust with standard properties, and contribute between 10 and 25% of the total dust luminosity. In addition to AFE, the spectra show a low-level continuum detectable at wavelengths longer than 3.5microns whose origin is still under investigation. The mid-infrared colors formed as the ratio of flux densities in the 6.75micron and the 15micron bands of ISO-CAM remain essentially constant and near unity for quiescent and mildly active galaxies. As dust heating increases further, the 15micron flux increases steeply compared to 6.75microns, indicating that dust heated to 100K<T<200K becomes a significant component. Such hot dust is presumably located within or just outside HII regions. At the other end of the spectrum, photometry at 120-200microns using ISO-PHOT is starting to constrain the distribution of dust temperatures at the low end of the temperature scale. From LWS data, the far-infrared fine-structure lines of [CII] and [OI], which provide most of the cooling for warm atomic gas, show variations that have remained controversial in their interpretation. In particular, as the galaxy become more active in star formation, its [CII] flux weakens relative to total dust emission while the [OI] does not. This behavior has attracted much interest because it extrapolates to the most active galaxies, making them weaker in [CII] than previously expected. Several explanations for the effect have been advanced, and will be discussed in this review. Spectroscopy with SWS has measured molecular hydrogen in galaxies, providing a powerful handle on the warm molecular gas content. SWS and CAM-CVF studies targeting ionic fine-structure lines have demonstrated their value as diagnostics of the radiation field.

Helou, George↗

A statistical model of diurnal variation in human growth hormone

The diurnal pattern of growth hormone (GH) serum levels depends on the frequency and amplitude of GH secretory events, the kinetics of GH infusion into and clearance from the circulation, and the feedback of GH on its secretion. We present a two-dimensional linear differential equation model based on these physiological principles to describe GH diurnal patterns. The model characterizes the onset times of the secretory events, the secretory event amplitudes, as well as the infusion, clearance, and feedback half-lives of GH. We illustrate the model by using maximum likelihood methods to fit it to GH measurements collected in 12 normal, healthy women during 8 h of scheduled sleep and a 16-h circadian constant-routine protocol. We assess the importance of the model components by using parameter standard error estimates and Akaike's Information Criterion. During sleep, both the median infusion and clearance half-life estimates were 13.8 min, and the median number of secretory events was 2. During the constant routine, the median infusion half-life estimate was 12.6 min, the median clearance half-life estimate was 11.7 min, and the median number of secretory events was 5. The infusion and clearance half-life estimates and the number of secretory events are consistent with current published reports. Our model gave an excellent fit to each GH data series. Our analysis paradigm suggests an approach to decomposing GH diurnal patterns that can be used to characterize the physiological properties of this hormone under normal and pathological conditions.

Non-NASA Center↗