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At least 73 records · Page 4

DeepShake: Shaking Intensity Prediction Using Deep Spatiotemporal RNNs for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract We propose a deep spatiotemporal recurrent neural network, DeepShake, to project future shaking intensity directly from current ground-motion observations. DeepShake is a network-based forecasting model, able to predict future shaking intensity at all stations within a network given previously measured ground shaking. The model is not given any a priori knowledge of station locations; instead, it learns wave propagation amplitudes and delays solely from training data. We developed DeepShake with the 35,679 earthquakes from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Tasked with alerting for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) IV+ shaking on 3568 validation earthquakes at least 5 s in advance, DeepShake achieves an equal error rate of 11.4%. For the Mw 7.1 earthquake that hit Ridgecrest on 5 July 2019, DeepShake was able to provide targeted alerts to all stations inside the network 5 s prior to the arrival of MMI IV+ waveforms. DeepShake demonstrates that deep spatiotemporal neural networks can effectively provide one-step earthquake early warning with reasonable accuracy and latency.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Benchmarking the PCMCI Causal Discovery Algorithm for Spatiotemporal Systems

Causal discovery algorithms construct hypothesized causal graphs that depict causal dependencies among variables in observational data. While powerful, the accuracy of these algorithms is highly sensitive to the underlying dynamics of the system in ways that have not been fully characterized in the literature. In this report, we benchmark the PCMCI causal discovery algorithm in its application to gridded spatiotemporal systems. Effectively computing grid-level causal graphs on large grids will enable analysis of the causal impacts of transient and mobile spatial phenomena in large systems, such as the Earth’s climate. We evaluate the performance of PCMCI with a set of structural causal models, using simulated spatial vector autoregressive processes in one- and two-dimensions. We develop computational and analytical tools for characterizing these processes and their associated causal graphs. Our findings suggest that direct application of PCMCI is not suitable for the analysis of dynamical spatiotemporal gridded systems, such as climatological data, without significant preprocessing and downscaling of the data. PCMCI requires unrealistic sample sizes to achieve acceptable performance on even modestly sized problems and suffers from a notable curse of dimensionality. This work suggests that, even under generous structural assumptions, significant additional algorithmic improvements are needed before causal discovery algorithms can be reliably applied to grid-level outputs of earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Real-Time Neuromorphic Processing of Spatiotemporal Data for Scientific Discovery

Spiking Neural Networks (SNNs) are brain-inspired computing models incorporating unique temporal dynamics and event-driven processing. Rich dynamics in both space and time offer great challenges and opportunities for efficient processing of sparse spatiotemporal data compared with conventional artificial neural networks (ANNs). Under this context, the goal of this project is to develop spiking neural network based neuromorphic computing to enable energy-efficient real-time learning and processing of spatiotemporal data. This report summarizes the key results on network architecture design, training methods, and SNN hardware acceleration achieved under this project, demonstrating the promise of spiking neural networks.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Machine-Learning-Based Mapping and Modeling of Solar Energy with Ultra-High Spatiotemporal Granularity

Despite the rapid growth of solar energy, we still lack a dynamic, high-fidelity database that tracks the spatiotemporal variations of solar PVs and their associated infrastructures across different places at a spatially resolved scale. The absence of such data presents a barrier to various applications such as solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar incentive design, and climate risk assessment. In this project, we aim to bridge this gap by developing AI-based algorithms to extract granular information about solar PV installations and their associated infrastructures (i.e., distribution grids) from widely available unstructured data like remote sensing images and street views. As a result, we have built the Solar Energy Atlas, a fine-grained, large-scale geospatial overlay of distributed solar PVs and distribution grids. On top of it, we have advanced the understanding of solar adoption and distribution grid vulnerability to climate-induced extremes. Our major contributions can be summarized as follow: (1) By developing new AI algorithms, we have built the most comprehensive solar PV spatiotemporal database covering the entire US. This is the first time we obtained the exact GPS locations, size, subtype, and installation year information for rooftop solar PVs across the US. This database can be used for solar PV growth projection, solar energy integration, solar energy policy analysis and design, and spatially-resolved climate risk assessment. (2) Leveraging this database, we have uncovered the socioeconomic driving factors that are correlated with earlier onset of solar adoption and higher saturated adoption levels. We have identified the heterogeneity in the effects of different types of financial incentives on solar adoption and provided implications for tailoring incentive design based on local income levels to promote equitable solar adoption. (3) We have developed a distribution grid GIS mapping algorithm which can obtain granular geospatial and topology information about distribution grids using multi-modal open data, reducing the dependency on hard-to-obtain smart meter data of conventional approaches. It shows effectiveness in both the U.S. and Sub-Saharan Africa. Using this algorithm, we have uncovered the non-uniform vulnerability of distribution grids to wildfires in California in the aspects of undergrounding protection and Distributed Energy Resources (DER) preparedness. This has provided important implications for improving the affordability and equity of grid adaptation approaches. (3) We have made our produced database publicly available and provided user-friendly interface to enable various stakeholders and the general public to interact with the data. We have also integrated the produced data into the Data Commons platform to enable the public to access the data and correlate it with other location-specific characteristics simply using natural language as queries. The impact of our project is three-fold: (1) New algorithms for mapping solar PVs and distribution grids across space and time, which are open source to facilitate researchers and industry; (2) New databases of solar PVs and distribution grids that have been made publicly available for engineering, social, and policy applications; (3) New understandings and actionable insights on the potential approaches to promoting solar adoption and reducing energy infrastructure vulnerabilities. In this report, we start by discussing the project background and motivation (section 5), followed by the overview of project objectives (section 6). Results and discussion for each task are presented in section 7. Significant accomplishments are summarized in section 8. This report will be concluded by discussing the paths forwards (section 9), products (section 10), and team roles (section 11).

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

Spatiotemporal metabolic responses to water deficit stress in distinct leaf cell-types of poplar

The impact of water-deficit (WD) stress on plant metabolism has been predominantly studied at the whole tissue level. However, plant tissues are made of several distinct cell types with unique and differentiated functions, which limits whole tissue ‘omics’-based studies to determine only an averaged molecular signature arising from multiple cell types. Advancements in spatial omics technologies provide an opportunity to understand the molecular mechanisms underlying plant responses to WD stress at distinct cell-type levels. Here, we studied the spatiotemporal metabolic responses of two poplar ( Populus tremula× P. alba ) leaf cell types -palisade and vascular cells- to WD stress using matrix-assisted laser desorption/ionization-mass spectrometry imaging (MALDI-MSI). We identified unique WD stress-mediated metabolic shifts in each leaf cell type when exposed to early and prolonged WD stresses and recovery from stress. During water-limited conditions, flavonoids and phenolic metabolites were exclusively accumulated in leaf palisade cells. However, vascular cells mainly accumulated sugars and fatty acids during stress and recovery conditions, respectively, highlighting the functional divergence of leaf cell types in response to WD stress. By comparing our MALDI-MSI metabolic data with whole leaf tissue gas chromatography-mass spectrometry (GC-MS)-based metabolic profile, we identified only a few metabolites including monosaccharides, hexose phosphates, and palmitic acid that showed a similar accumulation trend at both cell-type and whole leaf tissue levels. Overall, this work highlights the potential of the MSI approach to complement the whole tissue-based metabolomics techniques and provides a novel spatiotemporal understanding of plant metabolic responses to WD stress. This will help engineer specific metabolic pathways at a cellular level in strategic perennial trees like poplars to help withstand future aberrations in environmental conditions and to increase bioenergy sustainability.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Robotic Planning under Uncertainty in Spatiotemporal Environments in Expeditionary Science

In the expeditionary sciences, spatiotemporally varying environments -- hydrothermal plumes, algal blooms, lava flows, or animal migrations -- are ubiquitous. Mobile robots are uniquely well-suited to study these dynamic, mesoscale natural environments. We formalize expeditionary science as a sequential decision-making problem, modeled using the language of partially-observable Markov decision processes (POMDPs). Solving the expeditionary science POMDP under real-world constraints requires efficient probabilistic modeling and decision-making in problems with complex dynamics and observational models. Previous work in informative path planning, adaptive sampling, and experimental design have shown compelling results, largely in static environments, using data-driven models and information-based rewards. However, these methodologies do not trivially extend to expeditionary science in spatiotemporal environments: they generally do not make use of scientific knowledge such as equations of state dynamics, they focus on information gathering as opposed to scientific task execution, and they make use of decision-making approaches that scale poorly to large, continuous problems with long planning horizons and real-time operational constraints. In this work, we discuss these and other challenges related to probabilistic modeling and decision-making in expeditionary science, and present some of our preliminary work that addresses these gaps. We ground our results in a real expeditionary science deployment of an autonomous underwater vehicle (AUV) in the deep ocean for hydrothermal vent discovery and characterization. Our concluding thoughts highlight remaining work to be done, and the challenges that merit consideration by the reinforcement learning and decision-making community.

Preston, Victoria↗

Quantifying spatiotemporal variability in occupant exposure to an indoor airborne contaminant with an uncertain source location

Well-mixed zone models are often employed to compute indoor air quality and occupant exposures. While effective, a potential downside to assuming instantaneous, perfect mixing is underpredicting exposures to high intermittent concentrations within a room. When such cases are of concern, more spatially resolved models, like computational-fluid dynamics methods, are used for some or all of the zones. But, these models have higher computational costs and require more input information. A preferred compromise would be to continue with a multi-zone modeling approach for all rooms, but with a better assessment of the spatial variability within a room. Here to do so, we present a quantitative method for estimating a room's spatiotemporal variability, based on influential room parameters. Our proposed method disaggregates variability into the variability in a room's average concentration, and the spatial variability within the room relative to that average. This enables a detailed assessment of how variability in particular room parameters impacts the uncertain occupant exposures. To demonstrate the utility of this method, we simulate contaminant dispersion for a variety of possible source locations. We compute breathing-zone exposure during the releasing (source is active) and decaying (source is removed) periods. Using CFD methods, we found after a 30 minutes release the average standard deviation in the spatial distribution of exposure was approximately 28% of the source average exposure, whereas variability in the different average exposures was lower, only 10% of the total average. We also find that although uncertainty in the source location leads to variability in the average magnitude of transient exposure, it does not have a particularly large influence on the spatial distribution during the decaying period, or on the average contaminant removal rate. By systematically characterizing a room's average concentration, its variability, and the spatial variability within the room important insights can be gained as to how much uncertainty is introduced into occupant exposure predictions by assuming a uniform in-room contaminant concentration. We discuss how the results of these characterizations can improve our understanding of the uncertainty in occupant exposures relative to well-mixed models.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

A hybrid CNN-LSTM surrogate model for hyper-resolution spatiotemporal flood forecasting in Norfolk, Virginia

Study region: Norfolk, Virginia, United States Study focus: Accurate and timely flood forecasting is essential for enhancing resilience in coastal urban areas in the context of increasing frequency and intensity of rainfall, sea level rise and urbanization. This study presents a hybrid deep learning-based surrogate model that integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks to enable real-time spatiotemporal flood forecasting. The model leverages CNN to capture spatial features from inputs such as elevation and Topographic Wetness Index (TWI), while LSTM processes time-series inputs of rainfall and tide data to capture temporal features. New hydrologic insights for the region: The hybrid CNN-LSTM model was trained using the physics-based hydrodynamic model simulations obtained from the Two-dimensional Unsteady FLOW (TUFLOW) model for Norfolk, Virginia, and achieved high predictive accuracy across diverse flood-prone areas. The reduced computational time from four to six hours using TUFLOW to 3.2 min per event using CNN-LSTM enables rapid flood inundation mapping and early warning applications. The model effectively captured both spatial flood extents and their temporal evolution across different flooding scenarios, providing forecasts at a 2.5-m spatial resolution and 15-min temporal resolution and a one-hour-ahead prediction horizon. While challenges remain in terms of transferability to new regions and real-time data assimilation, this approach demonstrates strong potential for supporting operational flood risk management in coastal urban environments.

Coastal urban flooding↗

Spatiotemporal features of traffic help reduce automatic accident detection time

Quick and reliable automatic detection of traffic accidents is of paramount importance to save human lives in transportation systems. However, automatically detecting when accidents occur has proven challenging, and minimizing the time to detect accidents (TTDA) by using traditional features in machine learning (ML) classifiers has plateaued. We hypothesize that accidents affect traffic farther from the accident location than previously reported. Therefore, leveraging traffic signatures from neighboring sensors that are adjacent to accidents should help improve their detection. We confirm this hypothesis by using verified ground-truth accident data, traffic data from radar detection system sensors, and light and weather conditions and show that we can minimize the TTDA while maximizing classification performance by considering spatiotemporal features of traffic. Specifically, we compare the performance of different ML classifiers (i.e, logistic regression, random forest, and XGBoost) when controlling for different numbers of neighboring sensors and TTDA horizons. We use data from interstates 75 and 24 in the metropolitan area that surrounds Chattanooga, TN. Our results show that the XGBoost classifier produces the best results by detecting accidents as quickly as 1.0 min after their occurrence with an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve of up to 83% and an average precision of up to 49%. We describe limitations, open challenges, and how the proposed framework can be used for quicker operational accident detection.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Spatiotemporal Imaging of Thickness-Induced Band-Bending Junctions

van der Waals materials exhibit naturally passivated surfaces and an ability to form versatile heterostructures to enable an examination of carrier transport mechanisms not seen in traditional materials. Here, we report a new type of homojunction termed a "band-bending junction" whose potential landscape depends solely on the difference in thickness between the two sides of the junction. Using MoS 2 on Au as a prototypical example, we find that surface potential differences can arise from the degree of vertical band bending in thin and thick regions. Furthermore, by using scanning ultrafast electron microscopy, we examine the spatiotemporal dynamics of charge carriers generated at this junction and find that lateral carrier separation is enabled by differences in the band bending in the vertical direction, which we verify with simulations. As a result, band-bending junctions may therefore enable new optoelectronic devices that rely solely on band bending arising from thickness variations to separate charge carriers.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

Spatiotemporal forecasting of the edge localized modes in tokamak plasmas using neural networks

Artificial intelligence techniques have been increasingly adopted by the plasma and fusion science to address problems like plasma reconstruction, surrogate modeling, and tokamak/stellarator optimization. A key focus in sustained fusion research is the prediction and mitigation of edge-localized-modes (ELMs), instabilities that occur in short, periodic bursts and can cause erosion to the tokamak vessel wall. Recent research has demonstrated the power of neural networks in approximating continuous functions. In this work, we build spatiotemporal forecasting models that can predict the onset of ELMs and their evolution at early stages. We leverage recent advances in generative modeling, sequence-to-sequence modeling, and Fourier neural operators to propose architectures and training strategies that can learn to forecast short to long term dynamics of the noisy signals due to ELMs. We benchmark the developed model against a state-of-the-art foundation model using the beam emission spectroscopy (BES) data that captures the plasma fluctuations due to ELMs over a 8 x 8 spatial grid. Our models demonstrate high accuracy, outperforming the baselines, in predicting the evolution of BES signals during ELM events. Furthermore, the developed models exhibit high accuracy in predicting the rapid rise and relaxation of the signals due to ELMs within 30–80 µs.

edge localized modes↗

Spatiotemporal Automatic Calibration of Infrastructure Lidar, Radar, and Camera with a Global Navigation Satellite System

Robust and accurate perception is important for modern intelligent transportation systems (ITS), which use sensors of various modalities for data fusion to create a digital twin of an intersection. Sensor calibration is an important process that creates a unified coordinate frame for the sensor output data so that it can be used for data fusion. Classical approaches for sensor calibration are time-consuming, require an overlapping field of view for feature matching, and are not feasible for ITS application as they cause disruptions in the flow of traffic. In this paper, we present a spatiotemporal automatic calibration approach to calibrate multiple infrastructure lidar, radar, and cameras installed at a traffic intersection. The approach uses global navigation satellite system (GNSS) positioning information shared by connected vehicles, and when the vehicle is detected by the sensor, we match the sensor detections with the GNSS coordinates. The proposed algorithm is evaluated with a real-world dataset utilizing detections from two radars, cameras, and lidars with a test vehicle instrumented with a post-processing kinematic (PPK)-corrected GNSS driving past the sensors installed at a four-way traffic intersection. The experimental results show that the proposed automatic calibration approach can achieve the transformation with a root mean squared error of less than 0.5 for radar and lidar and less than 2 for camera detections. The ability to rapidly calibrate sensors not only benefits initial installations, but can also be used for system health monitoring, while utilizing available connected vehicle data to test the real-time sensor fidelity and operational status.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS,ENERGY CONSERVATION, C↗

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Spatiotemporal Thermal Coupling in VO 2 Device Arrays

Correlated oxides such as VO 2 exhibit an electrically driven insulator–metal transition (IMT) that underlies their promise for neuromorphic and memory devices. Yet the IMT is not a uniform bulk process but a spatiotemporal phenomenon in which local heating nucleates filaments, contracts or dissolves them with the electric field, and couples to the environment. In this work, we directly image the VO 2 IMT dynamics by mid-wave infrared, thermography synchronized with electrical transport, resolving device temperature with micrometer spatial and microsecond temporal resolution. At the single-device level, we capture the full cycle of filament nucleation, contraction, and relaxation during current/voltage-driven resistive switching. At the array level, we show that heat propagates across etched gaps with an effective length scale of ∼131 µm, enabling cooperative behaviors among electrically isolated devices. Short-range distanced devices exhibit mutual filament attraction and sequential dissolution, while long-range distanced devices differentiate into distinct roles: drivers that initiate switching, cooperative responders that undergo assisted self-oscillations, and passive reporters that record the thermal field. Furthermore, these results reframe thermal crosstalk, long regarded as parasitic, as an intrinsic coupling channel and design principle for organizing collective switching behaviors, with direct implications for emergent circuit functionality in neuromorphic and unconventional computing architectures.

coupling↗

In‐Operando Spatiotemporal Imaging of Coupled Film‐Substrate Elastodynamics During an Insulator‐to‐Metal Transition

Abstract The drive toward non‐von Neumann device architectures has led to an intense focus on insulator‐to‐metal (IMT) and the converse metal‐to‐insulator (MIT) transitions. Studies of electric field‐driven IMT in the prototypical VO 2 thin‐film channel devices are largely focused on the electrical and elastic responses of the films, but the response of the corresponding TiO 2 substrate is often overlooked, since it is nominally expected to be electrically passive and elastically rigid. Here, in‐operando spatiotemporal imaging of the coupled elastodynamics using X‐ray diffraction microscopy of a VO 2 film channel device on TiO 2 substrate reveals two new surprises. First, the film channel bulges during the IMT, the opposite of the expected shrinking in the film undergoing IMT. Second, a microns thick proximal layer in the substrate also coherently bulges accompanying the IMT in the film, which is completely unexpected. Phase‐field simulations of coupled IMT, oxygen vacancy electronic dynamics, and electronic carrier diffusion incorporating thermal and strain effects suggest that the observed elastodynamics can be explained by the known naturally occurring oxygen vacancies that rapidly ionize (and deionize) in concert with the IMT (MIT). Fast electrical‐triggering of the IMT via ionizing defects and an active “IMT‐like” substrate layer are critical aspects to consider in device applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Spatiotemporal Control over Polynucleotide Brush Growth on DNA Origami Nanostructures

Abstract DNA nanotechnology provides an approach to create precise, tunable, and biocompatible nanostructures for biomedical applications. However, the stability of these structures is severely compromised in biological milieu due to their fast degradation by nucleases. Recently, we showed how enzymatic polymerization could be harnessed to grow polynucleotide brushes of tunable length and location on the surface of DNA origami nanostructures, which greatly enhances their nuclease stability. Here, we report on strategies that allow for both spatial and temporal control over polymerization through activatable initiation, cleavage, and regeneration of polynucleotide brushes using restriction enzymes. The ability to site‐specifically decorate DNA origami nanostructures with polynucleotide brushes in a spatiotemporally controlled way provides access to “smart” functionalized DNA architectures with potential applications in drug delivery and supramolecular assembly.

Yang, Yunqi↗

Spatiotemporal Control over Polynucleotide Brush Growth on DNA Origami Nanostructures

DNA nanotechnology provides an approach to create precise, tunable, and biocompatible nanostructures for biomedical applications. However, the stability of these structures is severely compromised in biological milieu due to their fast degradation by nucleases. Recently, we showed how enzymatic polymerization could be harnessed to grow polynucleotide brushes of tunable length and location on the surface of DNA origami nanostructures, which greatly enhances their nuclease stability. Here, in this study, we report on strategies that allow for both spatial and temporal control over polymerization through activatable initiation, cleavage, and regeneration of polynucleotide brushes using restriction enzymes. The ability to site‐specifically decorate DNA origami nanostructures with polynucleotide brushes in a spatiotemporally controlled way provides access to “smart” functionalized DNA architectures with potential applications in drug delivery and supramolecular assembly.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Spatiotemporal distribution of chemical signatures exhibited by Myxococcus xanthus in response to metabolic conditions

Myxococcus xanthus is a common soil bacterium with a complex life cycle, which is known for production of secondary metabolites. However, little is known about the effects of nutrient availability on M. xanthus metabolite production. In this study, we utilize confocal Raman microscopy (CRM) to examine the spatiotemporal distribution of chemical signatures secreted by M. xanthus and their response to varied nutrient availability. Here, ten distinct spectral features are observed by CRM from M. xanthus grown on nutrient-rich medium. However, when M. xanthus is constrained to grow under nutrient-limited conditions, by starving it of casitone, it develops fruiting bodies, and the accompanying Raman microspectra are dramatically altered. The reduced metabolic state engendered by the absence of casitone in the medium is associated with reduced, or completely eliminated, features at 1140 cm –1 , 1560 cm –1 , and 1648 cm –1 . In their place, a feature at 1537 cm –1 is observed, this feature being tentatively assigned to a transitional phase important for cellular adaptation to varying environmental conditions. In addition, correlating principal component analysis heat maps with optical images illustrates how fruiting bodies in the center co-exist with motile cells at the colony edge. While the metabolites responsible for these Raman features are not completely identified, three M. xanthus peaks at 1004, 1151, and 1510 cm –1 are consistent with the production of lycopene. Thus, a combination of CRM imaging and PCA enables the spatial mapping of spectral signatures of secreted factors from M. xanthus and their correlation with metabolic conditions.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗