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At least 73 records · Page 4

Future air pollution in the Shared Socio-economic Pathways

Emissions of air pollutants such as sulfur and nitrogen oxides and particulates have significant health impacts as well as effects on natural and anthropogenic ecosystems. These same emissions also can change atmospheric chemistry and the planetary energy balance, thereby impacting global and regional climate. Long-term scenarios for air pollutant emissions are needed as inputs to global climate and chemistry models, and for analysis linking air pollutant impacts across sectors. In this paper we present methodology and results for air pollutant emissions in Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSP) scenarios. We first present a set of three air pollution narratives that describe high, central, and low pollution control ambitions over the 21 st century. These narratives are then translated into quantitative guidance for use in integrated assessment models. We provide an overview of pollutant emission trajectories under the SSP scenarios. Pollutant emissions in these scenarios cover a wider range than the scenarios used in previous international climate model comparisons. Furthermore, the SSP scenarios provide the opportunity to access a more comprehensive range of future global and regional air quality outcomes.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

An investigation of hard-disk drive circularity accounting for socio-technical dynamics and data uncertainty

The installed data storage capacity in the U.S. will reach 2.2 Zettabytes by 2025, generating about 50 million units of end-of-life (EOL) hard-disk drives (HDDs) per year. Due to data security concerns, most EOL HDDs are currently shredded (even when still functioning), representing an economic loss. Moreover, raw material extraction linked to the increased demand for storage causes environmental impacts. Besides mitigating the threat posed by sudden restrictions of raw materials, the circular economy (CE) offers to maximize value retention in the economy and reduce the environmental impacts of human activities. Common CE strategies are reusing and recycling products. However, the reuse of hard disk drives is currently burdened by the lack of trust HDD end-users have toward other non-physical means of data removal than shredding. Here, an agent-based modeling (ABM) approach is proposed to explore how techno-economic and social factors affect end-users' decisions to adopt EOL management practices other than shredding. The proposed method also accounts for data uncertainty by applying a semi-quantitative approach. Results demonstrate how increased green procurement and more robust standards could spur end-users' trust toward data-wiping technologies. Even when accounting for uncertainty, HDDs' reuse brings better environmental and economic benefits than HDD shredding followed by material recovery. The semi-quantitative approach proposed in this study could be more universally applied in future ABM, especially given the often-stochastic nature of such models. The developed ABM is also the first to represent several HDD industry stakeholders and demonstrate how the HDD shredding lock-in situation could be resolved.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Predicting environmental mitigation requirements for hydropower projects through the integration of biophysical and socio-political geographies

Uncertainty about environmental mitigation needs at existing and proposed hydropower projects makes it difficult for stakeholders to minimize environmental impacts. Hydropower developers and operators desire tools to better anticipate mitigation requirements, while natural resource managers and regulators need tools to evaluate different mitigation scenarios and order effective mitigation. Here we sought to examine the feasibility of using a suite of multidisciplinary explanatory variables within a spatially explicit modeling framework to fit predictive models for future environmental mitigation requirements at hydropower projects across the conterminous U.S. Using a database comprised of mitigation requirements from more than 300 hydropower project licenses, we were able to successfully fit models for nearly 50 types of environmental mitigation and to apply the predictive models to a set of more than 500 non-powered dams identified as having hydropower potential. The results demonstrate that mitigation requirements have been a result of a range of factors, from biological and hydrological to political and cultural. Furthermore, project developers can use these models to inform cost projections and design considerations, while regulators can use the models to more quickly identify likely environmental issues and potential solutions, hopefully resulting in more timely and more effective decisions on environmental mitigation.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

Climate, environmental and socio-economic change: weighing up the balance in vector-borne disease transmission

Arguably one of the most important effects of climate change is the potential impact on human health. While this is likely to take many forms, the implications for future transmission of vector-borne diseases (VBDs), given their ongoing contribution to global disease burden, are both extremely important and highly uncertain. In part, this is due not only to data limitations and methodological challenges when integrating climate-driven VBD models and climate change projections, but, perhaps most crucially, the multitude of epidemiological, ecological, and socioeconomic factors that drive VBD transmission, and this complexity has generated considerable debate over the last 10-15 years. In this article, and Theme Issue, we seek to elucidate current knowledge around this topic, identify key themes and uncertainties, evaluate ongoing challenges and open research questions, and, crucially, offer some solutions for the field moving forwards. Although many of these challenges are ubiquitous across multiple VBDs, more specific issues also arise in different vector-pathogen systems. This Theme Issue seeks to cover both, reflected in the breadth and depth of the topics and VBD-systems considered, itself strongly indicative of the challenging, but necessary, multidisciplinary nature of this research field.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

A Data Processing Pipeline To Extract A Knowledge Graph From Sec Documents For Socio-technical Analysis Of Critical Infrastructure Influence

The code is written in Python and consists of the following pipeline that is implemented in Apache Airflow. This pipeline intends to understand the companies that are directly or indirectly involved with a type of critical infrastructure system at some point in that system's lifecycle. The pipeline takes a configuration file that specifies a list of initial companies to consider, a geographic region of interest (disk) expressed as a latitude/longitude point and distance, and a set of SEC form types from which to extract entities and relations. There are three main components to this pipeline as currently implemented: Social Network Extraction, Critical Infrastructure Network Extraction, and Inference and Fusion. First, Social Network Extraction, implemented as the `organizations_sec` component of the workflow graph queries the SEC EDGAR webservice using the list of initial companies from the configuration file. Given this, it extracts metadata that documents the number of each type of form for the given set of companies and their location. This forms metadata represents a catalog of data sources for the extracted social network knowledge graph. The pipeline then downloads these forms from the website and saves them in a build directory for further processing. These documents are then parsed for entities and relations. Second, the Critical Network Extraction component extracts entities and relations for a critical infrastructure sector. Currently, we focus on Electric Vehicle charging stations and this information is available via the Department of Energy (DOE) database on fueling stations maintained by NREL. Third, the Inference and Fusion component relates the social network graph to the critical infrastructure graph in order to understand the impact of a company within a geographic region. Relations include ownership of the EV Charging Station asset as well as maintenance/ownership of the EV payment networks. The fused network can be represented in many ways and currently we emit a knowledge graph.

Weaver, GabrielA.↗

Socio-behavioral considerations in the role of militant extremism

This paper discusses relevant findings and theories regarding the role of ideology, culture, and context in shaping the behaviors of individuals within violent social movements. Accordingly, this focus concerns the comparative weight placed on ideology and culture (expressed principles and motives) versus external factors as chief influencers for the propensity of individuals to act outside of the norms of society and politics by resorting to violent behaviors. In doing so, we have drawn upon theory from anthropology, behavioral economics, political science, psychology, and sociology to better understand how these variables give birth to and nurture militant social movements. F u r t h e r d i s s e m i n a t i o n o n l y a s a u t h o r i z e d t o U . S . G o v e r n m e n t a g e n c i e s a n d t h e i r c o n t r a c t o r s ; o t h e r r e q u e s t s s h a l l b e a p p r o v e d b y t h e o r i g i n a t i n g f a c i l i t y o r h i g h e r D O E p r o g r a m m a t i c a u t h o r i t y .

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Longitudinal Socio-Emotional Learning Intervention for Autism via Smartglasses: Qualitative School Teacher Descriptions of Practicality, Usability, and Efficacy in General and Special Education Classroom Settings

There is considerable demand for special education services for the over half a million students with autism in the United States. While assistive technology may augment educational services, its implementation is often prevented by a number of practical and attitudinal barriers. These barriers are especially pertinent for the newest and thus least familiar digital systems, such as computerized smartglasses loaded with specialized software modules. Computerized smartglasses are a technology that has already been shown to have an ability to deliver educational interventions through augmented reality. With this in mind, we sought to understand how school educators received and assessed the practicality of a smartglasses-based educational intervention in a single-subject study. The intervention was designed to aid with attention and social educational learning in autism. The intervention was delivered twice a day during a two-week study on a 13-year-old student with autism who was attending a mainstream middle school in Massachusetts. Three different school educators delivered the intervention: the student’s general education teacher, special education teacher, and paraprofessional. Educators recorded their attitudes, the practicality of the technology, and its impact on the student and their classroom through the use of a digital log and a series of in-person interviews. Overall, the school educators experienced a positive view of the smartglasses. The smartglasses intervention was found to be logistically practical to implement, easily usable by both the educator and student, and not time-consuming to learn or implement. Educators also identified the experience as being fun for the student, and felt that the student demonstrated improvement in his verbal and non-verbal skills. There were no adverse effects on the other students or the classroom, and the technology did not result in a distraction. These findings suggest that social skills interventions delivered by smartglasses may be practical, useful, and may lead to improvements in social communication skills. Further research on smartglasses may help to clarify the future role for augmenting special education in students with autism.

Keshav, Neha↗

Challenging a Global Land Surface Model in a Local Socio-Environmental System

Land surface models (LSMs) predict how terrestrial fluxes of carbon, water, and energy change with abiotic drivers to inform the other components of Earth system models. Here, we focus on a single human-dominated watershed in southwestern Michigan, USA. We compare multiple processes in a commonly used LSM, the Community Land Model (CLM), to observational data at the single grid cell scale. For model inputs, we show correlations (Pearson’s R) ranging from 0.46 to 0.81 for annual temperature and precipitation, but a substantial mismatch between land cover distributions and their changes over time, with CLM correctly representing total agricultural area, but assuming large areas of natural grasslands where forests grow in reality. For CLM processes (outputs), seasonal changes in leaf area index (LAI; phenology) do not track satellite estimates well, and peak LAI in CLM is nearly double the satellite record (5.1 versus 2.8). Estimates of greenness and productivity, however, are more similar between CLM and observations. Summer soil moisture tracks in timing but not magnitude. Land surface reflectance (albedo) shows significant positive correlations in the winter, but not in the summer. Looking forward, key areas for model improvement include land cover distribution estimates, phenology algorithms, summertime radiative transfer modelling, and plant stress responses.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Hydrogen, socio-environmental impact

The concept and logic flow of a hydrogen technology assessment are described along with a specific procedure for such an assessment. The development of hydrogen technology is discussed. Factors considered in the development and use of hydrogen include: stimulus of societal needs and technological innovations; economic factors; and social and environmental effects.

Gilmore, J. S.↗