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At least 73 records · Page 4

Climate and society in 20th century Mexico

Mexican agriculture has been greatly transformed by the widespread introduction of 'Green Revolution' technologies (irrigation, chemical fertilizers, and improved seeds), through land reform, and by land use policies oriented to export crops and grain production. Drought prone Mexico provides an excellent case to study how technological and social changes alter the impact of drought on food and agricultural system. A goal is to document and understand how relationships between climate and agriculture in Mexico have changed in the last fifty years. The results for several locations will be interpreted in light of the prospects of regional climate change due to global warming. This analysis will be complimented by four case studies of vulnerability to drought which will use local records and interviews to try and show how environmental, technological, and social changes may have altered the impacts of climate on local agricultural systems.

Liverman, Diana M.↗

Famine Early Warning Systems and Remote Sensing Data

This book describes the interdisciplinary work of USAID's Famine Early Warning System Network (FEWS NET) and its influence on how food security crises are identified, documented and the kind of responses that result. The book describes FEWS NET's systems and methods for using satellite remote sensing to identify and describe how biophysical hazards impact the lives and livelihoods of the population where they occur. It presents several illustrative case studies that will demonstrate the integration of both physical and social science disciplines in its work. FEWS NET s operational needs have driven science in biophysical remote sensing applications through its collaboration with the US Geological Survey, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration, and US Department of Agriculture, as well as methodologies in the social science domain through its support of the US Agency for International Development, UNWorld Food Program and numerous international non-governmental organizations such as Save the Children, Oxfam and others. Because FEWS NET is an organization that must provide a global picture of food insecurity to decision makers, the information it relies on are by necessity observable and able to be documented. Thus many aspects of traditional livelihood analysis, for example, cannot be used by FEWS NET as they rely upon relationships, and ways of expressing power and knowledge at the local scale that cannot be easily scaled up to express variations in access to food at a community level. The book focuses on the ways that remote sensing information is transformed into an understanding of the actions that must be taken in order to ensure that lives and livelihoods are protected, including describing the remote sensing observations and models needed to identify hazards and the information gathering requirements and analytical frameworks needed to understand their impact. Its focus is primarily analysis conducted in Africa, but also touches upon FEWS NET s work in Central America, Haiti and Afghanistan. As an organization that seeks to integrate social and physical science methodologies and strategies into its work on a daily basis, it is a fascinating and rich example of interdisciplinary knowledge generation and innovation.

Brown, Molly E.↗

Habitual routines in task-performing groups

Groups, like individuals, often develop habitual routines for dealing with frequently encountered stimuli. Although such routines are consequential for group life and work, little is known about them. This paper reconnoiters the territory of habitual behavior in groups that perform work within organizations. We offer a definition of group habits, identify their functions and dysfunctions, suggest how they develop and are maintained, and identify the circumstances when they are likely to be altered or abandoned. Throughout, we give special attention to the social nature of habitual routines in groups, to the interaction between habitual behavior and group life cycle phenomena, and to the role of the organizational context in prompting, shaping, and terminating habitual routines.

NASA Program Space Human Factors↗

SHAPA: An interactive software tool for protocol analysis applied to aircrew communications and workload

As modern transport environments become increasingly complex, issues such as crew communication, interaction with automation, and workload management have become crucial. Much research is being focused on holistic aspects of social and cognitive behavior, such as the strategies used to handle workload, the flow of information, the scheduling of tasks, the verbal and non-verbal interactions between crew members. Traditional laboratory performance measures no longer sufficiently meet the needs of researchers addressing these issues. However observational techniques are better equipped to capture the type of data needed and to build models of the requisite level of sophistication. Presented here is SHAPA, an interactive software tool for performing both verbal and non-verbal protocol analysis. It has been developed with the idea of affording the researchers the closest possible degree of engagement with protocol data. The researcher can configure SHAPA to encode protocols using any theoretical framework or encoding vocabulary that is desired. SHAPA allows protocol analysis to be performed at any level of analysis, and it supplies a wide variety of tools for data aggregation, manipulation. The output generated by SHAPA can be used alone or in combination with other performance variables to get a rich picture of the influences on sequences of verbal or nonverbal behavior.

James, Jeffrey M.↗

Improving Tornado Casualty Predictions in the US With Population Exposure Data and A Modified Social Vulnerability Index

Tornadoes are frequent and widespread events that often account for hundreds of injuries and fatalities, and millions of dollars in damages. Multiple studies have analyzed tornado climatology and associated exposure; however, fewer have focused on predicting fatalities and injuries by coupling geospatial data on tornado characteristics and underlying social and economic vulnerability. In this study, we test the ability of negative binomial regression models to predict tornado-induced injuries and fatalities by coupling data on physical characteristics of tornadoes, exposure of populations, and underlying social vulnerability. We also present a modified spatially weighted social vulnerability index SVI* wt . We used 10-year (2005-2014) tornado data over the continental United States for this analysis. The results of this study indicate that the tornado length, magnitude and nocturnality seem to be the major hazard-related indicators of fatalities (McFadden’s Pseudo- R 2 ranged from 0.01-0.12). Population exposure and SVI* wt are positive and statistically significant in predicting tornado related fatalities and injuries (Pseudo R 2 of 0.11-0.18). Although combining SVI* wt with hazard variables does not substantially improve model fit when compared to adding population exposure, combining SVI* wt , hazard and exposure results in better predictions of both injuries and fatalities (Pseudo R 2 of 0.17) and is also an improvement on previous similar studies.

disaster↗

Asheville Urban Development II: Mapping Urban Heat to Support Cooling Initiatives and Climate Resilience Planning in the Greater Asheville Area

Asheville, North Carolina experiences the urban heat island effect, where temperatures in the city are higher than in surrounding rural areas. This effect intensifies with increased urbanization and less vegetative cover. Asheville’s urban heat island was exacerbated by population increases and tree cover decline, escalating the need for heat mitigation. We partnered with the City of Asheville’s Sustainability Department and Asheville GreenWorks whose actions prioritize sustainable city planning and equitable climate resilience. Using NASA Earth observations and ancillary datasets we spatially mapped urban heat, heat vulnerability, and cooling and adaptive capacity from 2019-2023. To map urban heat, we used Landsat 8 and 9 Operational Land Imager and Thermal Infrared Sensor for land surface temperature and albedo data and the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on Space Station for evapotranspiration data. We assessed heat vulnerability using the urban heat data andthe Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s Social Vulnerability Index. To evaluate cooling and adaptive capacity we used the InVEST Urban Cooling Model, integrating our heat vulnerability analysis with land use and cover data from Sentinel-1 Synthetic Aperture Rada rand Sentinel-2 Multispectral Instrument. Our results revealed distinct spatial patterns of urban heat, heat vulnerability, and cooling and adaptive capacity in Asheville with downtown as the focal hotspot and an outward decreasing radial pattern. These findings highlight targeted need for interventions to reduce heat impacts, address environmental injustices, and enhance climate resilience. Our project provided research to local organizations that can be used for heat mitigation in the greater Asheville area.

Authors not in NED but are confirmed contractors. ↗

Generating social impact scenarios: A key step in making technology assessment studies

The MITRE methodological studies were conducted to define relevant questions in relation to the concept of total impact analysis and to provide a procedure for integrating diverse checklists of questions which trace the initial and secondary impacts of any major technological application or of society's attempts to respond to or redirect that application. Some of the results of that study are presented in tabular form.

Jones, M. V.↗

Population Viability Analysis (PVA) as a Platform for Predicting Outcomes of Management Options for the Florida Scrub-Jay in Brevard County

The Florida scrub-jay (FSJ) is a species in decline because of extinction debt caused by habitat fragmentation and degradation. Understanding and managing the species and its habitats is challenging due to the complex interactions among the social system, a dynamic mosaic of scrub habitat, and active management. To provide insights into the possible fates of the FSJ populations of mainland, cape, and island sections of Brevard County, we modeled the population dynamics using the Vortex population viability analysis (PVA) software. Vortex is an individual-based simulation that allowed us to include such factors as demographic rates dependent on habitat state, impact of helpers on breeding success, and helper to breeder transition probabilities responding to availability of nearby vacant optimal habitat and vacancies due to the death of breeders. Detailed modeling of the FSJ was possible only because a lot of data about the species and its habitats have been gathered over decades of intensive research. We followed a phased approach to constructing population models that incorporated the best available science and data to address a variety of conservation actions. The first phase focused on constructing a model that incorporates sociobiology and source-sink habitat dynamics. This model allowed us to address some of the most important questions about population size and habitat quality. Once the model framework was in place, we considered the real landscapes and actual local populations, rather than just generic representations of typical FSJ dynamics. After examining the viability of the metapopulations under current conditions, we explored the likely consequences of various management actions that might slow or reverse population declines.

Population Viability Analysis↗

Integration of Planetary Protection Activities

Research and activities under this grant have focused on a systematic examination and analysis of critical questions likely to impact planetary protection (PP) controls and implementation for Mars sample return missions (MSR). Four areas in the non-scientific and social realms were selected for special attention because of their importance to future mission planning and concern about critical timing or possible economic impacts on MSR mission implementation. These include: (1) questions of legal uncertainty and the decision making process, (2) public perception of risks associated with sample return, (3) risk communication and Education/Public Outreach , and (4) planetary protection implications of alternative mission architectures, for both robotic and human sample return missions. In its entirety, NAG 2-986 has encompassed three categories of activity: (1) research and analysis (Race), (2) subcontracted research (MacGregor/Decision Research), and (3) consulting services.

Race, Margaret S.↗

Domestic and world trends affecting the future of aviation (1980 - 2000), appendix C

The results are presented of a study of variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological, and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis a series of scenarios is developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A scenario is presented which represents the manner in which events will most probably develop and their effect on the aviation industry.

Source record↗

Domestic and world trends (1980 - 2000) affecting the future of aviation

Variables affecting aviation in the United States during the last fifth of the twentieth century are studied. Estimates of relevant future developments are presented and their probable impact on the aviation industry in this country are identified. A series of key trends relating to economic, social, political, technological, ecological and environmental developments are identified and discussed with relation to their possible effects on aviation. From this analysis, a series of scenarios are developed representing an array of possibilities ranging from severe economic depression and high international tension on the one hand, to a world of detente which enjoys an unprecedented economic growth rate and relaxation of tensions on the other. A surprise free scenario is presented which represents the best judgment of the manner in which events will most probably develop and the effect on the aviation industry such developments will likely produce.

Friedman, N.↗

The Conference Proceedings of the 1998 Air Transport Research Group (ATRG) of the WCTR Society

Contents include the following: Airport choice in a multiple airport region: an empirical analysis for the San Francisco bay area. Liberalization of the westeuropian aviation: choice of a new hub airport for an airline. Austin Bergstrom airport traffic control tower establishment of a major activity level tower. A study to optimize the environmental capacity of Amsterdam airport schiphol.Airport performance in stakeholder involvement and communication strategies: a comparison of major Australian and North American air carrier and general aviation airports. Airport planning and location.Location of international airport and regional development. A simulation technique for analysis of Brasilian airport passanger terminal building.Multimodal airport access in Japan. Planning surface access provision at major airports Airline economics and the inclusion of environmental costs on airport hub pricing: a theoretical analysis. Airport financing and user charge systems in the USA. Optimal demand for operating lease of aircraft. Aircraft leasing industry and social welfare.The development of performance indicators for airports: a management perspective. Study about operational effect of the "security check-in" implantation in Brasilian international airports.Austin Bergstrom west loop cable system.and Optimal resource allocation model for airport passanger terminals.

Oum, Tae Hoon↗

Mining Twitter Data to Augment NASA GPM Validation

The Twitter data stream is an important new source of real-time and historical global information for potentially augmenting the validation program of NASA's Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) mission. There have been other similar uses of Twitter, though mostly related to natural hazards monitoring and management. The validation of satellite precipitation estimates is challenging, because many regions lack data or access to data, especially outside of the U.S. and in remote and developing areas. The time-varying set of "precipitation" tweets can be thought of as an organic network of rain gauges, potentially providing a widespread view of precipitation occurrence. Twitter provides a large source of crowd for crowdsourcing. During a 24-hour period in the middle of the snow storm this past March in the U.S. Northeast, we collected more than 13,000 relevant precipitation tweets with exact geolocation. The overall objective of our project is to determine the extent to which processed tweets can provide additional information that improves the validation of GPM data. Though our current effort focuses on tweets and precipitation, our approach is general and applicable to other social media and other geophysical measurements. Specifically, we have developed an operational infrastructure for processing tweets, in a format suitable for analysis with GPM data; engaged with potential participants, both passive and active, to "enrich" the Twitter stream; and inter-compared "precipitation" tweet data, ground station data, and GPM retrievals. In this presentation, we detail the technical capabilities of our tweet processing infrastructure, including data abstraction, feature extraction, search engine, context-awareness, real-time processing, and high volume (big) data processing; various means for "enriching" the Twitter stream; and results of inter-comparisons. Our project should bring a new kind of visibility to Twitter and engender a new kind of appreciation of the value of Twitter by the science research communities.

validatio↗

Analysis of Adult Female Mouse (Mus musculus) Group Behavior on the International Space Station (ISS)

As interest in long duration effects of space habitation increases, understanding the behavior of model organisms living within the habitats engineered to fly them is vital for designing, validating, and interpreting future spaceflight studies. A handful of papers have previously reported behavior of mice and rats in the weightless environment of space. The Rodent Research Hardware and Operations Validation (Rodent Research-1; RR1) utilized the Rodent Habitat (RH) developed at NASA Ames Research Center to fly mice on the ISS (International Space Station). Ten adult (16-week-old) female C57BL/6 mice were launched on September 21st, 2014 in an unmanned Dragon Capsule, and spent 37 days in microgravity. Here we report group behavioral phenotypes of the RR1 Flight (FLT) and environment-matched Ground Control (GC) mice in the Rodent Habitat (RH) during this long-duration flight. Video was recorded for 33 days on the ISS, permitting daily assessments of overall health and well-being of the mice, and providing a valuable repository for detailed behavioral analysis. We previously reported that, as compared to GC mice, RR1 FLT mice exhibited the same range of behaviors, including eating, drinking, exploration, self- and allo-grooming, and social interactions at similar or greater levels of occurrence. Overall activity was greater in FLT as compared to GC mice, with spontaneous ambulatory behavior, including organized 'circling' or 'race-tracking' behavior that emerged within the first few days of flight following a common developmental sequence, and comprised the primary dark cycle activity persisting throughout the remainder of the experiment. Participation by individual mice increased dramatically over the course of the flight. Here we present a detailed analysis of 'race-tracking' behavior in which we quantified: (1) Complete lap rotations by individual mice; (2) Numbers of collisions between circling mice; (3) Lap directionality; and (4) Recruitment of mice into a group phenotype. This analysis contributes to the first NASA long-duration study of rodent behavior, providing evidence for the emergence of a distinctive, organized group behavior unique to the weightless space environment.

Behavior in Space↗

Section on Observed Impacts on El Nino

Agricultural applications of El Nino forecasts are already underway in some countries and need to be evaluated or re-evaluated. For example, in Peru, El Nino forecasts have been incorporated into national planning for the agricultural sector, and areas planted with rice and cotton (cotton being the more drought-tolerant crop) are adjusted accordingly. How well are this and other such programs working? Such evaluations will contribute to the governmental and intergovernmental institutions, including the Inter-American Institute for Global Change Research and the US National Ocean and Atmospheric Agency that are fostering programs to aid the effective use of forecasts. As El Nino climate forecasting grows out of the research mode into operational mode, the research focus shifts to include the design of appropriate modes of utilization. Awareness of and sensitivity to the costs of prediction errors also grow. For example, one major forecasting model failed to predict the very large El Nino event of 1997, when Pacific sea-surface temperatures were the highest on record. Although simple correlations between El Nino events and crop yields may be suggestive, more sophisticated work is needed to understand the subtleties of the interplay among the global climate system, regional climate patterns, and local agricultural systems. Honesty about the limitations of an forecast is essential, especially when human livelihoods are at stake. An end-to-end analysis links tools and expertise from the full sequence of ENSO cause-and-effect processes. Representatives from many disciplines are needed to achieve insights, e.g, oceanographers and atmospheric scientists who predict El Nino events, climatologists who drive global climate models with sea-surface temperature predictions, agronomists who translate regional climate connections in to crop yield forecasts, and economists who analyze market adjustments to the vagaries of climate and determine the value of climate forecasts. Methods include historical studies to understand past patterns and to test hindcasts of the prediction tools, crop modeling, spatial analysis and remote sensing. This research involves expanding, deepening, and applying the understanding of physical climate to the fields of agronomy and social science; and the reciprocal understanding of crop growth and farm economics to climatology. Delivery of a regional climate forecast with no information about how the climate forecast was derived limits its effectiveness. Explanation of a region's major climate driving forces helps to place a seasonal forecast in context. Then, a useful approach is to show historical responses to previous El Nino events, and projections, with uncertainty intervals, of crop response from dynamic process crop growth models. Regional ID forecasts should be updated with real-time weather conditions. Since every El Nino event is different, it is important to track, report and advise on each new event as it unfolds. The stability of human enterprises depends on understanding both the potentialities and the limits of predictability. Farmers rely on past experience to anticipate and respond to fluctuations in the biophysical systems on which their livelihoods depend. Now scientists are improving their ability to predict some major elements of climate variability. The improvements in the reliability of El Nino forecasts are encouraging, but seasonal forecasts for agriculture are not, and will probably never be completely infallible, due to the chaotic nature of the climate system. Uncertainties proliferate as we extend beyond Pacific sea-surface temperatures to climate teleconnections and agricultural outcomes. The goal of this research is to shed as a clear light as possible on these inherent uncertainties and thus to contribute to the development of appropriate responses to El Nino and other seasonal forecasts for a range of stakeholders, which, ultimately, includes food consumers everywhere.

Rosenzweig, Cynthia↗

Psychological changes in hundred-day remote Antarctic field groups

Psychological adaptation to extreme environments has been examined from several perspectives. In this study, two Australian teams, each consisting of six male crew members, completed computer-administered questionnaires twice weekly during 100-day traverses around the Lambert Glacier Basin, Antarctica. Only small trends were noted when data were aggregated at the group level, which is consistent with the findings of others. Data were then analyzed using pooled time-series regression. These analyses incorporated personality characteristics, environmental factors, and interpersonal factors as predictors of Group Tensions, Personal Morale, Emotional State, Cognitive Readiness, and the Team's Work Life. Most of the psychological discomfort and problems that occurred appeared to be within the individual or between individuals. They did not affect all members of the group equally.

NASA Discipline Space Human Factors↗

Interdisciplinary Interactions During R&D and Early Design of Large Engineered Systems

Designing Large-Scale Complex Engineered Systems (LaCES) such as aircraft and submarines requires the input of thousands of engineers and scientists whose work is proximate in neither time nor space. Comprehensive knowledge of the system is dispersed among specialists whose expertise is in typically one system component or discipline. This study examined the interactive work practices among such specialists seeking to improve engineering practice through a rigorous and theoretical understanding of current practice. This research explored current interdisciplinary practices and perspectives during R&D and early LaCES design and identified why these practices and perspectives prevail and persist. The research design consisted of a three-fold, integrative approach that combined an open-ended survey, semi-structured interviews, and ethnography. Significant empirical data from experienced engineers and scientists in a large engineering organization were obtained and integrated with theories from organization science and engineering. Qualitative analysis was used to obtain a holistic, contextualized understanding. The over-arching finding is that issues related to cognition, organization, and social interrelations mostly dominate interactions across disciplines. Engineering issues, such as the integration of hardware or physics-based models, are not as significant. For example, organization culture is an important underlying factor that guided researchers more toward individual sovereignty over cross-disciplinarity. The organization structure and the engineered system architecture also serve as constraints to the engineering work. Many differences in work practices were observed, including frequency and depth of interactions, definition or co-construction of requirements, clarity or creation of the system architecture, work group proximity, and cognitive challenges. Practitioners are often unaware of these differences resulting in confusion and incorrect assumptions regarding work expectations. Cognitively, the enactment and coconstruction of knowledge are the fundamental tasks of the interdisciplinary interactions. Distributed and collective cognition represent most of the efforts. Argument, ignorance, learning, and creativity are interrelated aspects of the interactions that cause discomfort but yield benefits such as problem mitigation, broader understanding, and improved system design and performance. The quality and quantity of social interrelations are central to all work across disciplines with reciprocity, respectful engagement, and heedful interrelations being significant to the effectiveness of the engineering and scientific work.

McGowan, Anna-Maria Rivas↗