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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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60 records · Page 4
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Application and Evaluation of a Snowmelt Runoff Model in the Tamor River Basin, Eastern Himalaya Using a Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) Data Assimilation Approach

Previous studies have drawn attention to substantial hydrological changes taking place in mountainous watersheds where hydrology is dominated by cryospheric processes. Modelling is an important tool for understanding these changes but is particularly challenging in mountainous terrain owing to scarcity of ground observations and uncertainty of model parameters across space and time. This study utilizes a Markov Chain Monte Carlo data assimilation approach to examine and evaluate the performance of a conceptual, degree-day snowmelt runoff model applied in the Tamor River basin in the eastern Nepalese Himalaya. The snowmelt runoff model is calibrated using daily streamflow from 2002 to 2006 with fairly high accuracy (average Nash-Sutcliffe metric approx. 0.84, annual volume bias <3%). The Markov Chain Monte Carlo approach constrains the parameters to which the model is most sensitive (e.g. lapse rate and recession coefficient) and maximizes model fit and performance. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. The average snowmelt contribution to total runoff in the Tamor River basin for the 2002-2006 period is estimated to be 29.7+/-2.9% (which includes 4.2+/-0.9% from snowfall that promptly melts), whereas 70.3+/-2.6% is attributed to contributions from rainfall. On average, the elevation zone in the 4000-5500m range contributes the most to basin runoff, averaging 56.9+/-3.6% of all snowmelt input and 28.9+/-1.1% of all rainfall input to runoff. Model simulated streamflow using an interpolated precipitation data set decreases the fractional contribution from rainfall versus snowmelt compared with simulations using observed station precipitation. Model experiments indicate that the hydrograph itself does not constrain estimates of snowmelt versus rainfall contributions to total outflow but that this derives from the degree-day melting model. Lastly, we demonstrate that the data assimilation approach is useful for quantifying and reducing uncertainty related to model parameters and thus provides uncertainty bounds on snowmelt and rainfall contributions in such mountainous watersheds.

runoff↗
NASA NTRS2018

Increased Snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet Mitigated Twentieth-Century Sea-Level Rise

Changes in accumulated snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet have an immediate and time-delayed impact on global mean sea level. The immediate impact is due to the instantaneous change in freshwater storage over the ice sheet, whereas the time-delayed impact acts in opposition through enhanced ice dynamic flux into the ocean. Here, we reconstruct 200 years of Antarctic-wide snow accumulation by synthesizing a newly compiled database of ice core records using reanalysis derived spatial coherence patterns. The results reveal that increased snow accumulation mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise by approximately 10 millimeters since 1901, with rates increasing from 1.1 mm per decade between 1901 and 2000 to 2.5 mm per decade after 1979. Reconstructed accumulation trends are highly variable in both sign and magnitude at the regional scale, and linked to the trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode since 1957. Because the observed Southern Annular Mode trend is accompanied by a decrease in Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulation, changes in the strength and location of the circumpolar westerlies cannot explain the reconstructed increase, which may instead be related to stratospheric ozone depletion. However, our results indicate that a warming atmosphere cannot be excluded as a dominant force in the underlying increase.

Antarctic↗
NASA NTRS2005

Melting in Martian Snowbanks

Precipitation as snow is an emerging paradigm for understanding water flow on Mars, which gracefully resolves many outstanding uncertainties in climatic and geomorphic interpretation. Snowfall does not require a powerful global greenhouse to effect global precipitation. It has long been assumed that global average temperatures greater than 273K are required to sustain liquid water at the surface via rainfall and runoff. Unfortunately, the best greenhouse models to date predict global mean surface temperatures early in Mars' history that differ little from today's, unless exceptional conditions are invoked. Snowfall however, can occur at temperatures less than 273K; all that is required is saturation of the atmosphere. At global temperatures lower than 273K, H2O would have been injected into the atmosphere by impacts and volcanic eruptions during the Noachian, and by obliquity-driven climate oscillations more recently. Snow cover can accumulate for a considerable period, and be available for melting during local spring and summer, unless sublimation rates are sufficient to remove the entire snowpack. We decided to explore the physics that controls the melting of snow in the high-latitude regions of Mars to understand the frequency and drainage of snowmelt in the high martian latitudes.

Zent, A. P.↗
NASA NTRS2020

Intercomparison of Precipitation Estimates Over the Southern Ocean from Atmospheric Reanalyses

Precipitation is a major component of the hydrologic cycle and plays a significant role in the sea-ice mass balance in the polar regions. Over the Southern Ocean, precipitation is particularly uncertain due to the lack of direct observations in this remote and harsh environment. Here we demonstrate that precipitation estimates from 8 global reanalyses produce similar spatial patterns between 2000-2010, although their annual means vary by about 250 mm yr -1 (or 26 percent of the median values) and there is little similarity in their representation of interannual variability. ERA-Interim produces the smallest and CFSR produces the largest amount of precipitation overall. Rainfall and snowfall are partitioned in five reanalyses; snowfall suffers from the same issues as the total precipitation comparison, with ERA-Interim producing about 128 mm less snowfall and JRA-55 about 103 mm more rainfall compared to the other reanalyses. When compared to CloudSat-derived snowfall, these five reanalyses indicate similar spatial patterns, but differ in their magnitude. All reanalyses indicate precipitation on nearly every day of the year, with spurious values occurring on an average of about 60 days yr -1 resulting in an accumulation of about 4.5 mm yr -1 . While similarities in spatial patterns among the reanalyses suggest a convergence, the large spread in magnitudes points to issues with the background models in adequately reproducing precipitation rates, and the differences in the model physics employed. Further improvements to model physics are required to achieve confidence in precipitation rate, as well as the phase and frequency of precipitation in these products.

Linette N. Boisvert↗
NASA NTRS2001

Intercomparison of Satellite Derived Gravity Time Series with Inferred Gravity Time Series from TOPEX/POSEIDON Sea Surface Heights and Climatological Model Output

The upcoming GRACE mission promises to open a window on details of the global mass budget that will have remarkable clarity, but it will not directly answer the question of what the state of the Earth's mass budget is over the critical last quarter of the 20th century. To address that problem we must draw upon existing technologies such as SLR, DORIS, and GPS, and climate modeling runs in order to improve our understanding. Analysis of long-period geopotential changes based on SLR and DORIS tracking has shown that addition of post 1996 satellite tracking data has a significant impact on the recovered zonal rates and long-period tides. Interannual effects such as those causing the post 1996 anomalies must be better characterized before refined estimates of the decadal period changes in the geopotential can be derived from the historical database of satellite tracking. A possible cause of this anomaly is variations in ocean mass distribution, perhaps associated with the recent large El Nino/La Nina. In this study, a low-degree spherical harmonic gravity time series derived from satellite tracking is compared with a TOPEX/POSEIDON-derived sea surface height time series. Corrections for atmospheric mass effects, continental hydrology, snowfall accumulation, and ocean steric model predictions will be considered.

Cox, C.↗
NASA NTRS2018

Increased snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise

Changes in accumulated snowfall over the Antarctic Ice Sheet have an immediate and time-delayed impact on global mean sea level. The immediate impact is due to the instantaneous change in freshwater storage over the ice sheet, whereas the time-delayed impact acts in opposition through enhanced ice-dynamic flux into the ocean1. Here, we reconstruct 200 years of Antarctic-wide snow accumulation by synthesizing a newly compiled database of ice core records2 using reanalysis-derived spatial coherence patterns. The results reveal that increased snow accumulation mitigated twentieth-century sea-level rise by ~10 mm since 1901, with rates increasing from 1.1 mm decade−1 between 1901 and 2000 to 2.5 mm decade−1 after 1979. Reconstructed accumulation trends are highly variable in both sign and magnitude at the regional scale, and linked to the trend towards a positive Southern Annular Mode since 19573. Because the observed Southern Annular Mode trend is accompanied by a decrease in Antarctic Ice Sheet accumulation, changes in the strength and location of the circumpolar westerlies cannot explain the reconstructed increase, which may instead be related to stratospheric ozone depletion4. However, our results indicate that a warming atmosphere cannot be excluded as a dominant force in the underlying increase.

B Medley↗